Advances in Meteorology 272715

7/27/2019 Advances in Meteorology 272715

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Hndw Pshn CopotonAdvncs n MtoooyVom 2013, Atc ID 272715, 9 pshttp://dx.do.o/10.1155/2013/272715

Research ArticleAn Integrative Approach to Understandthe Climatic-Hydrological Process: A Case Studyof Yarkand River, Northwest China

Jianhua Xu, Yiwen Xu, and Chunan Song

Te Research Center or East-West Cooperation in China, Te Key Lab o GIScience o the Education Ministry PRC,East China Normal University, 500 Dongchuan Road, Minhang, Shanghai 200241, China

Cospondnc shod ddssd to Jnh X; [email protected]

Rcvd 5 Fy 2013; Accptd 8 Ap 2013

Acdmc Edto: Ls Gmno

Copyht 2013 Jnh X t . Ts s n opn ccss tc dsttd nd th Ctv Commons Attton Lcns,whch pmts nstctd s, dstton, nd podcton n ny mdm, povdd th on wok s popy ctd.

kn th Yknd Rv s n xmp, ths pp condctd n nttv ppoch comnn th Dn-Wtson sttstctst (DWS), mtp n sson (MLR), wvt nyss (WA), cofcnt o dtmnton (CD), nd Akk nomtoncton (AIC) to nyz th cmtc-hydooc pocss o nnd v, Nothwst Chn om mttm sc pspctv.T mn ndns s oows. (1) T hydooc nd cmtc vs, tht s, nn no (AR), nn v tmpt,(AA) nd nn pcptton (AP), stochstc nd, no sncnt tocoton. (2) T vton pttns o no,

tmpt, nd pcptton w sc dpndnt n tm. AR, AA, nd AP scypsnt ntnds t 16-y nd32-yscs, t thy show nonn cttons t 2-y nd 4-y scs. (3) T tonshp twn AR wth AA nd AP wssmtd y th mtp n sson qton (MLRE) sd on wvt nyss t ch tm sc. Bt th smtd ctt tm sc s tt thn tht t sm tm sc.

1. Introduction

T hydooc spons to cmt chn s n mpotntscnc ss. o w ndstnd ths ss, th copdsystm o cmtc-hydoocpocss shod thoohystdd t dnt spt nd tmpo scs.

Totcy, pocss cn vtd to dtmn

thy comps n odd, dtmnstc systm, n n-odd, ndom systm, o chotc, dynmc systm,nd whth chn pttns o podcty o qs-p-odcty xst. Howv, t s dfct to chv thoohndstndn o th mchnsm o cmtc-hydoocpocsss [1]. o dt, ths qstons hv not cvdstsctoy nsws [2].

Cs stds n dnt conts nd ons hvsstd tht th cmtc-hydooc pocss s compxsystm [36]. To, mo stds qd to xpoth mchnsm o cmtc-hydooc pocss om d-nt pspctvs nd sn dnt mthods. As st,th cmtc-hydooc pocss hs n xpod sn

vos nytc mthods, ncdn th ct thoy [79], s-onzd ctcty [10], wvts nyss [1113],nd tc n ntwoks [14, 15]. Athoh th wsv ctv mthods v to v th vtons ncmtc-hydooc pocss [1619], t hs povn dfctto chv thooh ndstndn o th mchnsm ocmtc-hydooc pocss n nnd v [2].

In th st 20 ys, stds hv n condctd tovt cmt chn nd hydooc nd coocpocsss n th d nd smd ons n nothwstnChn [1825]. Som stds hv ndctd tht th ws

vs tnston n th hydocmtc pocsss n th psth-cnty [24, 2628]. Ts tnston ws chctzd y contn ncs n tmpt nd pcptton, dddv no voms, ncsd k wt sc vtonnd , nd vtd ondwt v. Ts tnstonmy psnt ss o qstons ths chns psnt oczd tnston to wm nd wt cmt typ nspons to o wmn, o my ct cntnnpodcty n hydooc dynmcs.o dt, thsqstons


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2 Advncs n Mtoooy

hv not cvd stsctoy nsws; tho, mo std-s qd to xpo th nonn chctstcs ohydocmtc pocss om dnt pspctvs nd sndnt mthods [2, 15, 29].

Toh som stds hv shown tht th nnd vn nothwst Chn (NW Chn), sch s th Yknd Rv,

s mny chd y snowmt, th mn cmtc ctosctn th stmow tmpt nd pcptton[20, 30, 31]. Bt d to th compxty o hydocmtc sys-tm, t s dfct to ndstnd th mchnsm o cmtc-hydooc pocss thoohy [2]. Fo th ov sons,ths pp dd not nvov th compx physc mchnsmst condctd n nttv ppoch comnn sttstcsnd wvt nyss to ndstnd th vton o nnno nd ts spons to cmtc ctos t dnt tmscs.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area and Data. T Yknd Rv s typcpsnttv o nnd vs, whch s octd n thm Rv Bsn o Xnjn Uy Atonomos Ron,nothwstn Chn (F 1), wth nth o1097 km. TYknd Rv (3540 4031N, 7428 8054E) hs tot sn o9.89 104 km2, ncdn 6.08 104 km2s th montn , whch cconts o 61.5%, nd 3.81 104 km2 s th pn , whch tks p 38.5% [31]. Tmn stm o Yknd Rv onts om KkomPss n th noth sop o Kkom Montn, whch s o town pks nd cs, s w s th xtmy pcptton n pn. D to th spc ophc con-dtons, th ccmton o c nd snow n hh montns th ony sppy soc o no. To, th YkndRv s typcc-snow sppy v, n whch th mtyv no n Kqn hydomtc stton conssts o64.0% om mn vom o c ton, 13.4% omn nd snow sppy, nd 22.6% om ondwt sppy,spctvy [32, 33].

Fo th Yknd Rv s n nnd v, no wtchs n th pn , nd ts stm ow mnycoms om montnos , tht s, th Pm Montns.In oth wods, th stmow o th Yknd Rv smny d y c nd snowmt n th Pm Montns.To, th cmtc ctos, spcy tmpt ndpcptton, dcty ct th nn chns n th no.

So w s th no s w s tmpt nd pcpttondt to nyz th cmtc-hydooc pocss n YkndRv. T no dt w om th Kqn hydoocstton, nd tmpt nd pcptton dt w omsh Khn mtoooc stton. T two sttons octd n th soc s o th v; th mont o wtsd y hmns s mnm compd to th tot dsch.To, th osvd hydooc nd mtoooccods ct th nt condtons.

Lon-tm cmt chns cn t th no po-dcton pttn, th tmn o hydooc vnts, nd thqncy nd svty o oods, ptcy n d osmd ons. To, sm chn n pcptton

nd tmpt my st n mkd chns n no.o nvstt th no nd ts td cmtc ct, thsstdy sd th tm ss dt o nn no (AR), nnv tmpt (AA), nd nn pcptton (AP)om 1957 to 2008.

2.2. Methods. In od to stdy th vtons o stmowwth on cmt chn t dnt tm scs, thspp condctd comphnsv mthod ncdn thDn-Wtson sttstc tst (DWS), mtp n s-son (MLR), wvt nyss (WA), cofcnt o dtmn-ton (CD), nd Akk nomton cton (AIC). Fsty,th DWS ws sd to xpo th stochstc chctstco hydooc nd cmtc vs. Scondy, th WA wssd to v th vton pttns o nn no (AR)ndts td cmtc ctos t dnt tm scs. Tdy,th tonshp twn AR wth AA nd AP ws smtdy MLR sd on WA t dnt tm scs. Fny,th stmtd ct o mtp n sson qton

(MLRE) t ch tm sc ws tstd y CD nd AIC.

2.2.1. Durbin-Watson Statistic est. T Dn-Wtsonsttstc s tst sttstc sd to dtct th psnc otocoton ( tonshp twn vs sptdom ch oth y vn tm ) n th sds (p-dcton os) om sson nyss [34, 35].

Fo v , th Dn-Wtson sttstc s

DW = =2 ( 1)2

=1 2 ,(1)

wh

=

,nd

nd

, spctvy, th osvd

nd pdctd vs o th spons v o ndvd ; s th nm o osvtons.o tst o postv tocoton t sncnc , th

tst sttstc DW s compd to ow nd pp ctcvs ( nd ): DW < , th s sttstc vdnctht th o tms postvy tocotd; DW >, th s no sttstc vdnc tht th o tms postvy tocotd; < DW < , th tst snconcsv.

o tst o ntv tocoton t sncnc , thtst sttstc 4 DW s compd to ow nd pp ctc

vs ( nd ): 4 DW < , th s sttstcvdnc tht th o tms ntvy tocotd;

4 DW > , th s no sttstc vdnc tht th otms ntvy tocotd; < 4 DW < ,th tst s nconcsv.

Usn th Dn-Wtson sttstc, w chckd th to-coton o hydooc nd cmtc vs, sch stmpt, pcptton, nd no.

2.2.2. Wavelet Analysis. Wvt tnsomton hs nshown to pow tchnq o chctzton oth qncy, ntnsty, tm poston, nd dton o

vtons n cmt nd hydooc tm ss [11, 12, 16,36]. Wvt nyss cn so v th oczd tm ndqncy nomton wthot qn th tm ss to


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Advncs n Mtoooy 3

78E76 E 80 E

78E76 E 80 E

Artux

Awat

Shangyou

YarkantTaklamakan Desert

38N

Kaqun PoskamTashkurgan River

Xinjiang

TashkurganKargilik

38N

Karakax River

36N

City or county

RiverMeteorological station

Hydrological station

KarakaxHotan

36N

China

40N

Kashi

Yopurga

Shengli

MakitYengisar

40N

0 40 80 120

Xinjiang

KaxgarRiver

(Km)

Reservoir

GhezRiver

Tizin

afuRiv

er

Karakoram

KelechinRiverYurungkaxRiver

HotanRive

r

AksuTar

im

YarkandRive

r

Karakoram

Figure 1: Locton o th Yknd Rv.

sttony, s qd y th Fo tnsom nd othspct mthods [37].

A contnos wvt ncton tht dpnds on nondmnson tm pmt cn wttn s [36]

() = , = ||1/2 , (2)wh dnots tm, s th sc pmt, nd s thtnston pmt. mst hv zo mn nd oczd n oth tm nd Fo spc [38]. T contnoswvt tnsom (CW) o dsct sn,

, sch

s th tm ss o no, tmpt, o pcptton,s xpssd y th convoton o wth scd ndtnstd ,

, = ||1/2 +

, (3)

wh ndcts th compx conjt, nd ,dnots th wvt cofcnt. Ts, th concpt o -qncy s pcd y tht o sc, whch cn chctz th

vton n th sn, , t vn tm sc.Sctn pop wvt ncton s pqst o

tm ss nyss [39, 40]. T ct ct o wvt

scton ncd s-smty, compctnss, nd smooth-nss[41]. Bcs thsymts nysymmtc,otho-on, nd othoon wvts poposd y Dchs smodctons to th d my [41], ths stdy chos thsymts 8 to nyz th vton pttns o no ndts td cmtc ctos n th comptn nvonmnt oMALAB.

Fo tm ss, , t cn nyzd t mtpscs thoh wvt dcomposton on th ss o thdsct wvt tnsom (DW). T DW s dndtkn dsct vs o nd . T DW o sn,, cn psntd s [42]

=

0

, 0

, +0

=1

, , , (4)

wh 0

, nd , th xn nd p sho th sc scn ncton, , nd th moth wvtncton, , nd

0, < 0 nd , th scn co-

cnts nd th wvt cofcnts, spctvy. Gny,scs nd postons sd on pows o 2, whch s thdydc DW.


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4 Advncs n Mtoooy

Onc moth wvt s sctd, th wvt tnsomcn sd to dcompos sn ccodn to sc, ow-n spton o th n-sc hvo (dt) om th-sc hvo (ppoxmton) o th sn [43]. Ttonshp twn sc nd sn hvo s dsntds oows: ow sc cosponds to compssd wvt s

w s pdy chnn dts, nmy, hh qncy;whs hh sc cosponds to sttchd wvt ndsowy chnn cos ts, nmy, ow qncy.Sn dcomposton s typcy condctd n n ttv

shon sn ss o scs sch s = 2,4 ,8, . . . ,2,wth sccssv ppoxmtons n spt n tn so thton sn s okn down nto mny ow sotoncomponnts.

T wvt dcomposton nd constcton w sdto ppoxmt th vton pttns o AR nd ts tdctos ov th nt stdy pod t th sctd dnttm scs.

2.2.3. Multiple Linear Regression. Fo ndstndn thtonshp twn nn no wth ts td cmtcctos t dnt tm scs, w mpoyd mtp nsson (MLR) sd on wvt nyss. Ts mthod tsmtp n sson qton (MLRE) twn AR wthAA nd AP y sn mtp n sson (MLR) sdon th sts o wvt ppoxmton [44].

T mtp n sson mod s

= 0 + 11 + 22 + + , (5)wh s dpndnt v, s th ndpndnt v-s; s th sson cofcnt, whch s nycctd y mthod o st sqs [45]. In ths stdy,th dpndnt v s th nn no (AR) nd thndpndnt vs td cmtc ctos, sch s thnn v tmpt (AA) nd nn pcptton(AP).

2.2.4. Coefcient o Determination and Akaike InormationCriterion. In od to dnty th nctnty o th st-mtd mod o vn tm sc, th cofcnt o dt-mnton, so known s th oodnss o t, ws cctd soows:

2

= 1

RSS

SS = 1

=1 ( )2

=1 ( )2

,(6)

wh 2 s th cofcnt o dtmnton; nd i thsmtd v nd ct dt o no, spctvy; sth mn o = 1, 2, . . . , ; RSS = =1 2 s thsd sm o sqs; SS = =1 2 s th tot smo sqs.

T cofcnt o dtmnton s ms o howw th smtd sts psnt th ct dt. A

2 ndcts hh ctnty nd ow nctnty o thstmts [45].

o comp th tv oodnss twn th ANN ndmtp n sson (MLR) t o vn tmsc, w

so sd th ms o Akk nomton cton (AIC)[46]. T om o AIC s s oows:

AIC = 2 + n RSS , (7)wh

s th nm o pmts stmtd n th mod;

s th nm o smps; RSS s th sm s n om (6).A sm AIC ndcts tt mod.Fo sm smp szs (.., / 40), th scond-od

Akk nomton cton (AIC) shod sd nstd:

AIC = AIC + 2 + 1 1 , (8)wh s th smp sz. As th smp sz ncss, thst tm o th AIC ppochs zo, nd th AIC tnds toyd th sm concsons s th AIC [47].

3. Results

3.1. Check or Variables Autocorrelation. T pms osttstcs ndcts tht mods mpy n ssmpton; tht s,

vs stochstc nd no sncnt tocoton spsnt. Is t y? Ts cn dmonsttd y sttstcchck o vs tocoton ( 1).

Fo (1), (2), nd (3) n 1, th d o doms, spctvy, qs2nd (..,1) qs51. Uppnd ow ctc vs o th Dn-Wtson Sttstc (DW) qs 1.509 nd qs 1.58 whn sncnc v() qs 0.01. Bcs th vs o DW twn nd4 , t s ovos tht nn no (AR), nn vtmpt (A), nd nn pcptton (AP) ndct

no tocoton.Fo (4) n 1, ts d o dom s, spctvy,

qs 4 nd qs 51. Upp nd ow ctc vso DW qs 1.25350 nd qs 1.49384 whnsncnc v qs 0.01. Fo (5), ts d odom s, spctvy, qs 6 nd qs 51. Uppnd ow ctc vs o DW qs 1.17372 nd qs 1.58811 whn sncnc v qs 0.01. Tythy ndct no tocoton th.

In ct, t cn dtmnd tht vs nd modv non-tocoton cs th v o DW s costo 2 o ch sson qton shown n 1. To,th ssmpton o o mod s oc.

3.2. Variation Patterns o Climatic-Hydrological Process atDierent ime Scales. O pvos stdy ndctd tht [44]th nn v tmpt nd nn pcptton th most mpotnt ctos tht td wth th nnno. T st ws so sppotd y th oth stds oth hdwts o th m Rv Bsn [20, 3033].

T w dt o AR, AA, nd AP showd ctton.It s dfct to dnty ny pttns smpy sd on thw dt. In od to show th sc-dpndnt wth tmo th cmtc-hydooc pocss o th Yknd Rv,th wvt nyss ws sd. T nonn vton o thnn no pocss nd th td cmt ctos w


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Advncs n Mtoooy 5

able 1: Sttstc chck o vs tocoton.

Dpndntv

Indpndntv

Fncton 2 DWAR AR1 AR = 76.852 0.156AR1 (1) 0.024 1.125 1.981AA AA1 AA = 2.526 0.290AA1 (2) 0.093 5.014 1.835AP AP1

AP = 81.338 0.118

AP1 (3

)0.013 0.659 1.851

AR AA, AP, AR1 AR = 66.677 + 3.191AA 0.025AP 0.145AR1 (4) 0.091 1.572 2.023AR

AA, AP, AR1,AA1, AP1

AR = 62.516 + 2.051AA 0.048AP 0.186AR1 + 2.702AA1 + 0.042AP1 (5) 0.123 1.266 1.931Notes. AR: nn no, AA: nn v tmpt, nd AP: nn pcptton; th sscpts, nd 1, psnt tm.

85

75

65

55

1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005

Annualrunof(10

8

m3

)

()

5

4

3

2

1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005

Annualaverage

temperature(C)

()

110

90

70

50

30

1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005Annualprecipitation

(mm)

S1 (the time scale of 2 years)S2 (the time scale of 4 years)

S3 (the time scale of 8 years)



(c)

Figure 2: Vton pttns t dnt tm scs o () nn

no, () nn v tmpt, nd (c) nn pcptton.

nyzd t mtp-y scs thoh wvt dcompo-ston on th ss o th dsct wvt tnsom (DW).

T wvt dcomposton o th tm ss o nnno t v tm scs std n v vton pttns(F 2()). T S1 cv tns mont o sdom th w dt, nd dstc cttons xst n thpod om 1957 to 2008. Ts chctstcs ndct thtthoh th no vd ty thohot th stdypod, th ws hddn ncsn tnd. T S2 cv st

tns consd mont o sd, s ndctd y thpsnc o 4 pks nd 4 vys. Howv, th S2 cv smch smooth thn th S1 cv, whch ows th hddnncsn tnd to mo ppnt. T S3 cv tnsmch ss sd, s ndctd y th psnc o 2 pksnd 2 vys. Compd to S2, th ncs n no ovtm s mo ppnt n S3. Fny, th S5 cv psnts nscndn tndncy, whs th ncsn tnd s ovosn th S4 cv.

Accodny, Fs 2() nd 2(c) povd s wth mthod o compn th vton pttns o nnv tmpt nd nn pcptton t dnttm scs. T wvt dcomposton o th tm ss tv tm scs std n v vton pttns,spctvy.Ts v tm scs so dsntd s S1 to S5.T cvs psnt n scndn tndncy dspt dstccttons n S1 nd S2. Tn, th cvs ttn mchsmooth nd th ncsn tnd coms vn moovos s th sc v ncss.

T pp nyss showd tht th nonn vtonso no, tmpt,nd pcptton o th Yknd Rvsn w dpndnt on tm scs. T nn no,nn v tmpt nd nn pcptton t vtm scs std n v pttns o nonn vtons,spctvy.

3.3. Relationship between Streamow and Climate Factors.Bsd on th w dt o AA, AP, nd AR, mtp nsson qton (MLRE) ws dvopd s oows:

AR= 3.5AA 0.037AP + 56.75,2 = 0.1983, = 2.517, = 0.1. (9)

Eqton (9) vs postv coton twn thnn no nd th nn v tmpt. Tssts dy sppotd y th ct tht th mjoty ostmow coms om c mt nd snowmt, whchhv n occn t ncsd ts s th tmptncss. Ts sts hv n conmd y oth stds[48]. Howv, (9) so ndcts th xstnc o wk, n-tv coton twn th nn no nd th nnpcptton, whch dos not sm son. Indd, thsndn concts wth th sts o oth stds, whch hvsstd tht oth th tmpt nd pcptton ssn th m Bsn hv n ncsn n pttn smto tht o nn no ov th pst 50 ys [20, 30].


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6 Advncs n Mtoooy

Addtony, th cofcnt o dtmnton o (9) ss ow s 0.093. Fthmo, th v sot ond v tv o o pdctd sts s s hh

s 9.014 108 m3 nd 14.11%, spctvy. A ths mnstht th sson (9) s not thntc. Wht s th sono ths? It s poss tht ths nconsstncy s csd y

ndomcty n th w tm-ss dt, whch shod td ot v wvt dcomposton sd on th dsctwvt tnsom [17, 18].

o ndstnd th spons o th no to oncmtc chnt dnt tm scs, sd on th sts owvt dcomposton (F 2), mtp n ssonqton (MLRE) t ch tm sc ws ttd o dscnth tonshp mon nn no, nn v tm-pt, nd nn pcptton ( 2).

3.4. Comparison o the Estimated Results at Dierent imeScales. Toh MLREs t ch tm sc n 2 otcoss th sttstc tst t th sncnt v o 0.01 o

0.001, th pdctd o o MLRE t th chosn tm scss dnt. F 3 shows th compson o th smtd

v y MLREs nd on dt o AR t dnt tmscs. T pdctd o o MLRE t th tm sc o S1nd S2 (.., 2-y nd 4-y scs) s , tht t th tmsc o S3 (.., 8-y sc) s so sh, nd w pdctdo o MLRE t th tm sc o S4 nd S5 (.., 4-y nd5-yscs) pps. Ts sts show tht MLRE ony cnw t th tonshp twn no nd cmt ctos t tm sc sch s t 16-y nd 32-y scs.

By compn th 2 nd AIC v n 3, w cnknow th stmtd ct (ood o d) o mods t dnttm scs.

3 ts s tht th 2

o MLRE t th tm sc oS1 nd S2 (.., 2-y nd 4-y scs) s ow (ony 0.361nd 0.416, sp.) nd tht t th tm sc o S3 (.., 8-yscs) s hh, chn 0.894. Ony th MLRE t th tmsc o S4 nd S5 (.., 16-y nd 32-y scs) hs thhh cofcnt o dtmnton, whch s s hh s 0.975nd 0.996, spctvy.

T ow AIC v ndcts tt mod, whch tss tht th MLRE t tm sc o S5 s th st, tht t tmsc o S4 s tt, tht t tm sc o S3 s modt, thtt tm sc o S2 s th pnt, nd tht t tm sc o S1 sth wost.

Ov, th tonshp twn AR wth AA nd AP

ws smtd y th mtp n sson (MLR) sdon wvt nyss t dnt tm scs, t th smtdct t tm sc s tt thn tht t sm tmsc.

4. Discussion and Conclusions

Mny stds ndctd tht th cmtc-hydoocpocsss compx systm wth nonnty, t t s dfct tondstnd th mchnsm o cmtc-hydooc pocssthoohy [2]. O sts showd th oown ct: thsmtd ct t tm sc s tt thn tht t smtm sc, nd th stmtd pcson t tm sc s

80

70

60

50Annualrunof

(10

8

m3

)

1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

() S1 (th tm sc o 2-y)

1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

80

70

60

50Annualrunof

(10

8

m3

)

() S2 (th tm sc o 4-y)

72

68

64

60Annualrunof

(10

8

m3

)

1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

(c) S3 (th tm sc o 8-y)

74

70

66

62Annualrunof

(10

8

m3

)

1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

(d) S4 (th tm sc o 16-y)

74

70

66

62Annua

lrunof

(10

8

m3

)

Simulation

Original data

1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

() S5 (th tm sc o 32-y)

Figure 3: T smtd v o AR nd ts on dt.

hh thn tht t sm tm sc. Wht th css oths? It s dfct to thoohy nsw th qston cso th nonn compctd cmtc-hydooc pocss,whch s ssnty dfct to pcsy pdct [15].

O stdy vd tht th cmtc-hydooc pocsst tm sc (.., 16-y o 32-y scs) scypsntd n pocss, t tht t sm tm sc(.., 2-y o 4-y scs) s ssnty nonn pocsswth compctd cstons. Bcs th tm ss ono ssnty monotonc tnds td to on-tmcmtc chns t tm sc (.., 16-y nd 32-yscs), th stmtd pcson s mch hh. Othws,


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Advncs n Mtoooy 7

able 2: MLREs o cmtc-hydooc pocss t dnt tm scs.

m sc Rsson qton 2 Sncnc v Av sot o Av tv oS1 AR = 3.243AA + 54.89 0.361 4.763 0.01 6.266 9.665%

S2 AR = 2.883AA + 0.173AP + 43.62 0.4157 15.6492 0.001 3.250 4.959%

S3 AR = 5.792AA + 0.116AP + 37.276 0.894 205.729 0.001 0.880 1.354%

S4 AR = 3.332AA + 0.189AP + 40.618 0.975 943.228 0.001 0.329 0.502%S5 AR = 2.555AA + 0.206AP + 42.353 0.996 6701.914 0.001 0.109 0.165%

Notes. AR: nn no, AA: nn v tmpt, nd AP: nn pcptton.

able 3: 2 nd AIC o MLREs t dnt tm scs.m sc 2 AICS1 0.361 209.924

S2 0.416 143.263

S3 0.894 12.960

S4 0.975 96.714S5 0.996 209.172

d to th dfcty to ccty pdct nonn cmtc-hydooc pocss t sm tm scs (.., 2-y o 4-y sc), th stmtd pcson nd smtd ct not stsctoy.

Nvthss, th comphnsv mthod condctd yths pp povds mthod to ndstnd th cmtc-hydooc pocss n th Yknd Rv om th pspc-tv o mtsc, whch my sd to xpo th cmtc-hydooc pocss n oth nnd vs o nothwstChn.

T mn concsons o ths wok cn smmzd s

oows.

(1) T hydooc nd cmtc vs, tht s, nnno (AR), nn v tmpt (AA), ndnn pcptton (AP) stochstc nd show nosncnt tocoton.

(2) T vton pttn o no, tmpt, nd p-cptton ws sc dpndnt wth tm. T nnno (AR), nn v tmpt (AA), ndnn pcptton (AP) scy psnt ntnds t 16-y nd 32-y scs, t thy shownonn cttons t 2-y, 4-y, nd 8-y

scs.

(3) T tonshp twn AR wth AA nd AP wssmtd y th mtp n sson qton(MLRE) sd on wvt nyss t ch tm sc.T sts showd tht th AR s scy monotonctnd td to on-tm cmtc chns t tm sc (.., 16-y o 32-y scs), nd thstmtd pcson s mch hh. Bt d to nssnty nonn cmtc-hydooc pocss t sm tm sc (.., 2-y o 4-y scs), thstmtd pcson s ow thn tht t tmsc.

Acknowledgments

Ts wok ws sppotd y th Dcto Fnd o th Ky Lo GIScnc o th Edcton Mnsty PRC. T thos t to th dto nd s whos commnts hpd sn mpovn th tcs qty.

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