ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN ... · PDF fileiif global seminar: advanced...

IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR:

ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES December 5-7, 2016 | New York , NY

IN COOPERATION WITH

2 ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

COURSE DESCRIPTION

IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR

Advanced Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting in Emerging Economies This three day seminar is similar to a condensed version

of the two-week Financial Programming and Policies

course offered by the IMF. Class size will be kept small

and the content is tailored to fit participants’ interests.

This seminar presents practical tools useful in country

analysis to help economists better assess a country’s

macroeconomic conditions and prepare consistent

forecasts for the real, fiscal, monetary, and external

sectors.

The program also includes a series of workshops in which

participants are divided into groups, under the guidance

of counselors, to implement the diagnostic and analytical

tools presented in the lectures and to develop consistent

forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators in emerging

economies.

An impressive group of expert industry practitioners,

including IIF experts and former IMF staff members will

share their insights with participants.

This training course will be eligible for CPD/CE credits through the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), the Chartered Banker Institute, the CFA Institute, the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), and the International Compliance Association (ICA).

PROGRAM FACTS

Date: December 5-7, 2016

Location: New York, USA

Venue: Moody’s Investors Service

CPD/CE: 18 hours

Program Fee: -Member Firm $2,400 (USD) -Non-Member Firm $4,000 (USD)

REGISTER AT

IIF.COM/TRAINING

Registration is open up

to one week prior to

program start date or

until capacity is reached.

Capacity limitations may

force some programs to

close registration early.

IDEAL FOR PROFESSIONALS WHO:

Provide Advice on Macroeconomic and Financial Policies

Work in Economic Research at Financial Institutions, Insurance Companies and Hedge Funds

Work in Country/Sovereign Risk or Investment Management

PLEASE JOIN US IN NEW

YORK TO TAKE ADVANTAGE

OF THIS UNIQUE

OPPORTUNITY.

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

Review the principal features of the

different accounts used in

macroeconomic analysis, and the

interrelations among these

accounts

Receive insights from leading

experts on the formulation of

internally consistent forecasts and

financial programs

Participate in a country case study

with fellow participants to analyze

economic challenges and develop

forecasts under the guidance of

experienced counselors

Network with global peers

3

MONDAY

DEC 5


8:30 am—9:00 am REGISTRATION

9:00 am—9:10 am

SESSION 1: WELCOMING SESSION Opening remarks Introduction to the program

Moody’s Representative

9:10 am—9:30 am SESSION 2: FORECASTING APPROACHES Advanced economies Emerging economies More words of wisdom Leading economic indicators

Charles Collyns, Managing Director & Chief Economist, IIF (former IMF staff)

10:30 am—11:00 am COFFEE BREAK

11:00 am—12:30 pm SESSION 4: INTERRELATIONS AMONG MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS

Links between balance of payments and the fiscal sector Links between balance of payments and monetary survey Links between monetary the fiscal sector and monetary sector Data consistency

Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF (former IMF staff)

12:30 pm—1:30 pm LUNCH

1:30 pm—2:30 pm SESSION 5: OVERVIEW OF FORECASTING METHODS General considerations about forecasting The autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model The error correction model Vector auto-regressions: estimating and forecasting Examples

Emre Tiftik, Deputy Director, Global Capital Markets, IIF

2:30 pm—3:00 pm COFFEE BREAK

3:00 pm—4:00 pm SESSION 6: PROJECTING GDP AND COMPONENTS Estimating potential output -Hodrick-Prescott filter of real GDP -Production function Growth accounting decomposition


4:00 pm—5:00 pm SESSION 7: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING CPI AND THE GDP DEFLATOR

Inflation drivers New Keynesian Phillips curve Yield curves and monetary policy Taylor rule Forecasting CPI inflation Forecasting the GDP deflator

Emre Tiftik, Deputy Director, Global Capital Markets, IIF

9.30 am—10:30 am SESSION 3: KEY ACCOUNTS AND LINKAGES Key accounts Schematic representation of intersectoral linkages Example of inconsistency of real GDP forecast


TUESDAY

DEC 6


9:00 am—10:00 am SESSION 8: FORECASTING THE FISCAL ACCOUNTS Analytical presentation of the fiscal accounts Forecasting revenues Forecasting expenditures Country examples

Melhem Melhem, Former IMF Senior Advisor

10:00 am—11:00 am SESSION 9: EXTERNAL AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY Key external indicators Assessing fiscal sustainability Debt-to-GDP dynamics How to stabilize debt Country examples

Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF (former IMF staff


11:30 am—12:30 pm SESSION 10: FORECASTING THE CURRENT ACCOUNT Analytical presentation of the balance of payments Balance of payment accounting framework Linkages to other macroeconomic accounts

Bejoy Das Gupta, Chief Economist, Asia/Pacific, IIF


1:30 pm—2:30 pm SESSION 11: CAPITAL FLOW IN EMERGING ECONOMIES Foreign direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment (including foreign borrowing)

Bejoy Das Gupta, Chief Economist, Asia/Pacific, IIF

2:30 pm—3:15 pm SESSION 12: FORECASTING THE MONETARY SURVEY Analytical presentation of the monetary survey Forecasting net foreign assets, domestic credit, & other items Forecasting broad money Country examples



3:45 pm—5:15 pm SESSION 13: GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK US, Eurozone, Brexit US interest rates Why the Chinese economy is slowing What will policymakers do next Monetary policy challenges

Charles Collyns, Managing Director & Chief Economist, IIF (former IMF staff)

WEDNESDAY

DEC 7


9:00 am—9:30 am SESSION 14: DISCUSSION ON COUNTRY CASES Prepare forecasts for 2016 and 2017 by sectors Assumptions: commodity prices, global growth Participants are expected to bring their own laptops equipped

with Excel and preferably EViews 9 (MS Windows compatible) to work on a macroeconomic framework of selected countries


9:30 am—11:00 am SESSION 15: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS

Forecast of real GDP growth Estimating potential growth Forecast of CPI and GDP deflator

Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF (former IMF staff) Emre Tiftik, Deputy Director, Global Capital Markets, IIF


11:30 am—1:00 pm SESSION 16: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONT)

Forecast of government revenue Forecast of government spending

Melhem Melhem, Former IMF Senior Advisor Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF (former IMF staff)


2:00 pm—3:30 pm SESSION 17: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONT)

Forecast of the main components of the balance of payments Forecasting the monetary survey

Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF (former IMF staff) Bejoy Das Gupta, Chief Economist, Asia/Pacific, IIF


4:00 pm—5:00 pm SESSION 18: WRAP UP What have we learned over the three days—main takeaways What are the areas where more focus is needed going forward

Charles Collyns, Managing Director & Chief Economist, IIF (former IMF staff) Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF (former IMF staff)

SPEAKER PROFILES


Charles Collyns, Managing Director and Chief Economist, Institute of International Finance Dr. Charles Collyns is Managing Director and Chief Economist at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF, Dr. Collyns served as Assistant Secretary for International Finance at U.S. Treasury, a post he held February 2010 to July 2013. In that capacity, he was responsible for leading the Treasury’s work on international monetary policy, international financial institutions, coordination with the G7/G8 and G20, and regional and bilateral economic issues, including participation in the U.S. – China economic dialogues. Previously, he served as Deputy Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he headed the team responsible for the World Economic Outlook report. Prior to joining the Research Department in 2006, he held a number of other positions at the IMF, including holding responsibility for its work on Japan from 1997 to 2001, the United States from 2001 to 2003, and Brazil from 2004 to 2006. Collyns has published on a broad range of international macro-economic issues. In addition to the “World Economic Outlook” reports, he co-authored “Post Bubble Blues – How Japan Responded to Asset Price Collapse,” “Managing Financial Crises – Recent Experience and Lessons for Latin America,” “Stabilization and Reform in Latin America – A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Experience since the early 1990s.” and “India—Economic Reform and Growth.” He received a Doctorate in Economics from Oxford University after obtaining first class honors as an undergraduate at Cambridge University. ________________________________________________________________________________________

Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa, Institute of International Finance Dr. Garbis Iradian has more than 25 years experience in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of MENA economies. He is currently the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Department at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF in 2008, he worked for 18 years at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While there he held the positions of senior economist and senior advisor to an Executive Director where he monitored and assessed macroeconomic and financial developments of several Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies. Prior to joining the IMF he served as international economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and taught macroeconomics and econometrics at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Freiburg University, Germany after obtaining a masters degree from the American University of Beirut. Iradian has published several articles and working papers on sources of growth, income inequality, and economic challenges of the MENA economies. ________________________________________________________________________________________

Melhem Melhem, Former Chief Economist, Deutsche Securities & Former Senior Advisor to the Saudi Arabian Executive Director, IMF Dr. Melhem Melhem has more than 25 years experience in analyzing macroeconomic and financial policies with particular emphasis on Saudi Arabia and the GCC. He is currently the Chief Economist for Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia. Prior to joining Deutsche Securities, his work experience included a 27 year career at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) where he held various positions including Senior Advisor the Saudi Arabian Executive Director. Dr. Melhem also taught international economics and finance at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from New York University (NYU). He has published several articles. ________________________________________________________________________________________

SPEAKER PROFILES


Bejoy Das Gupta, Chief Economist for Asia/Pacific, Institute of International Finance Dr. Bejoy Das Gupta has more than 25 years experience in the analysis of macroeconomic policy, capital flows and financial sectors; and communicating research to financial institutions. He is Chief Economist for Asia/Pacific at the IIF, where he manages the economic analysis for the region. Dr. Das Gupta also serves as Adjunct Professor of the Maxwell School of Syracuse University’s Washington Program. He is also a Member of the Board of the Mandiri Institute, which was established in May 2014 by Bank Mandiri, Indonesia’s largest bank, to promote research on financial inclusion and entrepreneurship to shape the public policy agenda. Prior to joining the IIF in 1993, Dr. Das Gupta served as Economist for the International Lead and Zinc Study Group in London, and in investment banking with ANZ Bank. After graduating from the London School of Economics, he received M.Phil. and D.Phil. in Economics from Christ Church, Oxford. ________________________________________________________________________________________

Emre Tiftik, Deputy Director, Global Capital Markets, Institute of International Finance Mehmet Emre Tiftik is Deputy Director in the Capital Markets and Emerging Markets Policy Department. His major fields of study are international economics and finance with particular interests in G7 and Emerging Europe. Prior to joining the IIF in 2011, Mr. Tiftik served as an instructor and teaching assistant at the University of Maryland, College Park (UMD). From 2005 to 2008, he worked as a research assistant at the Middle East Technical University (METU) in Turkey. Prior to that, he served as a junior research analyst in the Ministry of Labour and Social Security of Turkey where he participated in the evaluation of grant projects under the Delegation of European Union to Turkey. Mr. Tiftik completed his Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics and a Master’s degree in Financial Mathematics at METU. He also holds two Master’s degrees in Economics- one from METU with a focus on applied econometrics and the other from UMD with a concentration in quantitative macroeconomic modelling. ________________________________________________________________________________________

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