ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN · PDF fileiif global seminar advanced...

IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR

ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN MENA ECONOMIES November 7-9, 2016 | Dubai, UAE

IN COOPERATION WITH

2 ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN MENA ECONOMIES

COURSE DESCRIPTION

IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR

Advanced Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting in MENA Economies This three day seminar is similar to a condensed version

of the two-week Financial Programming and Policies

course offered by the IMF. Class size will be kept small

and the content is tailored to fit participants’ interests.

This seminar presents practical tools useful in country

analysis to help economists better assess a country’s

macroeconomic conditions and prepare consistent

forecasts for the real, fiscal, monetary, and external

sectors.

The program also includes a series of workshops in which

participants are divided into groups, under the guidance

of counselors, to implement the diagnostic and analytical

tools presented in the lectures and to develop consistent

forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators in MENA

economies

An impressive group of expert industry practitioners,

including IIF experts and former IMF staff members will

share their insights with participants.

This training course will be eligible for CPD/CE credits through the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), the Chartered Banker Institute, the CFA Institute, the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), and the International Compliance Association (ICA).

PROGRAM FACTS

Date: November 7-9, 2016

Location: Dubai, UAE

Venue: DIFC Conference Centre

CPD/CE: 18 hours

Program Fee: - Member Firm $2,400 (USD) - Non-Member Firm $4,000 (USD)

REGISTER AT

IIF.COM/TRAINING

Registration is open up

to one week prior to

program start date or

until capacity is reached.

Capacity limitations may

force some programs to

close registration early.

IDEAL FOR PROFESSIONALS WHO:

Provide Advice on Macroeconomic and Financial Policies

Work in Economic Research at Financial Institutions, Insurance Companies and Hedge Funds

Work in Country/Sovereign Risk or Investment Management

PLEASE JOIN US IN DUBAI TO

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY.

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

Review the principal features of the

different accounts used in

macroeconomic analysis, and the

interrelations among these

accounts

Receive insights from leading

experts on the formulation of

internally consistent forecasts and

financial programs

Participate in a country case study

with fellow participants to analyze

economic challenges and develop

forecasts under the guidance of

experienced counselors

Network with global peers

3

MONDAY

NOV 7


8:30 am—9:00 am REGISTRATION

9:00 am—9:20 am

SESSION 1: WELCOMING SESSION Opening remarks Introduction to the program

Wolfgang Engel, General Manager and Chief Representative Middle East and Africa Regional Office, IIF

9:20 am—10:30 am SESSION 2: HOW DO WE GO ABOUT DOING PROJECTIONS Key accounts Schematic representation of intersectoral linkages More words of wisdom Example of inconsistency of forecast

Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF (former IMF staff)

10:30 am—11:00 am COFFEE BREAK

11:00 am—12:30 pm SESSION 3: INTERRELATIONS AMONG MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS

Links between balance of payments and the fiscal sector Links between balance of payments and monetary survey Links between monetary the fiscal sector and monetary sector Data consistency


12:30 pm—1:30 pm LUNCH

1:30 pm—2:30 pm SESSION 4: OVERVIEW OF FORECASTING METHODS General considerations about forecasting The autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model The error correction model Vector auto-regressions: estimating and forecasting Examples

Giyas Gokkent, Senior Economist, MENA, IIF

2:30 pm—3:00 pm COFFEE BREAK

3:00 pm—4:00 pm SESSION 5: PROJECTING GDP AND COMPONENTS Estimating potential output -Hodrick-Prescott filter of real GDP -Production function Growth accounting decomposition Leading economic indicators Country examples


4:00 pm—5:00 pm SESSION 6: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING CPI AND THE GDP DEFLATOR

Forecasting CPI inflation Forecasting the GDP deflator

Melhem Melhem, Former Chief Economist, Deutsche Securities (former IMF staff)

TUESDAY

NOV 8


8:30 am—9:45 am SESSION 7: FORECASTING THE FISCAL ACCOUNTS Analytical presentation of the fiscal accounts Forecasting revenues Forecasting expenditures Country examples

Melhem Melhem, Former Chief Economist, Deutsche Securities (former IMF staff) Giyas Gokkent, Senior Economist, MENA, IIF

9:45 am—10:45 am SESSION 8: FORECASTING THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Analytical presentation of the balance of payments Balance of payment accounting framework Linkages to other macroeconomic accounts Forecasting main components of the current account Forecasting the financial account Country examples



11:15 am—12:15pm SESSION 9: FORECASTING THE MONETARY SURVEY Analytical presentation of the monetary survey Forecasting net foreign assets, domestic credit, and other items Forecasting broad money Country examples


12:15 pm—1:00 pm SESSION 10: EXTERNAL AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY Key external indicators Debt-to-GDP dynamics How to stabilize debt Country examples

Melhem Melhem, Former Chief Economist, Deutsche Securities (former IMF staff)


2:00 pm—3:30pm SESSION 11: MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE OF MENA ECONOMIES—OVERVIEW AND CHALLENGES

Oil exporters (with focus on the GCC) Oil importers (with focus on Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan) Reforms to achieve sustained rapid growth

Melhem Melhem, Former Chief Economist, Deutsche Securities (former IMF staff) Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF (former IMF staff)


4:00 pm—5:30 pm SESSION 12: DISCUSSION ON COUNTRY CASES Prepare forecasts for 2016 and 2017 by sectors Assumptions: commodity prices, global growth Participants are expected to bring their own laptops equipped with

Excel and preferably EViews 9 (MS Windows compatible) to work on a macroeconomic framework of selected countries.


WEDNESDAY

NOV 9


8:30 am—9:30 am SESSION 13: GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK US, Eurozone, Brexit US interest rates Why the Chinese economy is slowing What will policymakers do next

Charles Collyns, Managing Director & Chief Economist, IIF (former IMF staff)


11:00 am—1:00 pm SESSION 15: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS

Forecast of real GDP growth Forecast of CPI and GDP deflator

Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF (former IMF staff) Giyas Gokkent, Senior Economist, MENA, IIF


2:00 pm—3:00 pm SESSION 16: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS

Forecast of the main components of the balance of payments



3:30 pm—4:30 pm SESSION 17: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS

Forecast of government revenue Forecast of government spending Forecasting the monetary survey


4:30 pm—5:00 pm SESSION 18: WRAP UP What have we learned over the three days—main takeaways What are the areas where more focus is needed going forward


9:30 am—10:30 am SESSION 14: ASSESSING MONETARY POLICY IN MENA Instruments, targets, and objectives Inflation drivers Yield curve approach Monetary policy challenges in the context of fixed exchange rates

Charles Collyns, Managing Director & Chief Economist, IIF (former IMF staff)

SPEAKER PROFILES


Charles Collyns, Managing Director and Chief Economist, Institute of International Finance Dr. Charles Collyns is Managing Director and Chief Economist at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF, Dr. Collyns served as Assistant Secretary for International Finance at U.S. Treasury, a post he held February 2010 to July 2013. In that capacity, he was responsible for leading the Treasury’s work on international monetary policy, international financial institutions, coordination with the G7/G8 and G20, and regional and bilateral economic issues, including participation in the U.S. – China economic dialogues. Previously, he served as Deputy Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he headed the team responsible for the World Economic Outlook report. Prior to joining the Research Department in 2006, he held a number of other positions at the IMF, including holding responsibility for its work on Japan from 1997 to 2001, the United States from 2001 to 2003, and Brazil from 2004 to 2006. Collyns has published on a broad range of international macro-economic issues. In addition to the “World Economic Outlook” reports, he co-authored “Post Bubble Blues – How Japan Responded to Asset Price Collapse,” “Managing Financial Crises – Recent Experience and Lessons for Latin America,” “Stabilization and Reform in Latin America – A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Experience since the early 1990s.” and “India—Economic Reform and Growth.” He received a Doctorate in Economics from Oxford University after obtaining first class honors as an undergraduate at Cambridge University. ________________________________________________________________________________________

Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa Department, Institute of International Finance Dr. Garbis Iradian has more than 25 years experience in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of MENA economies. He is currently the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Department at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF in 2008, he worked for 18 years at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While there he held the positions of senior economist and senior advisor to an Executive Director where he monitored and assessed macroeconomic and financial developments of several Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies. Prior to joining the IMF he served as international economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and taught macroeconomics and econometrics at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Freiburg University, Germany after obtaining a masters degree from the American University of Beirut. Iradian has published several articles and working papers on sources of growth, income inequality, and economic challenges of the MENA economies. ________________________________________________________________________________________

Melhem Melhem, Former Chief Economist, Deutsche Securities; Former Senior Advisor to the Saudi Arabian Executive Director, International Monetary Fund Dr. Melhem Melhem has more than 25 years experience in analyzing macroeconomic and financial policies with particular emphasis on Saudi Arabia and the GCC. He was previously the Chief Economist for Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia. Prior to joining Deutsche Securities, his work experience included a 27 year career at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) where he held various positions including Senior Advisor the Saudi Arabian Executive Director. Dr. Melhem also taught international economics and finance at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from New York University (NYU). He has published several articles. _______________________________________________________________________________________

SPEAKER PROFILES


Wolfgang Engel, General Manager and Chief Representative, Middle East and Africa Regional Office, Institute of International Finance Wolfgang Engel leads the IIF efforts to establish and strengthen relationships with members in the Middle East & Africa, to identify and address their most important issues from their perspective, and to increase engagement with the official sector. Before joining IIF, Wolfgang Engel was a member of the Management Committee at Société Générale in charge of the Financial Institutions Group Germany and Austria. In that role he was primarily responsible for advising institutional clients on regulatory issues and debt and equity markets solutions. From 1998 to 2005, Wolfgang Engel held a number of positions at BNP Paribas, including Head of the Debt Capital Markets Europe in London, Head of Institutional Clients Coverage Group for Germany and Austria and Head of Corporate Banking Division in Germany, among other roles. Wolfgang Engel has also served in positions at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in Frankfurt, the Asian Development Bank in Manila and JPMorgan in Frankfurt and New York. ________________________________________________________________________________________

Giyas Gokkent, Senior Economist, Middle East and North Africa Department, Institute of International Finance Dr. Giyas Gökkent’s experience spans insurance, academia, asset management and banking. He is currently Senior Economist at the Middle East & Africa Department at the Institute of International Finance. He previously worked as Group Chief Economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi and acted as co-head of Asset Management Group. He has held a number of academic positions in the US, Turkey, and the UAE and served as the acting head of the finance department at Abu Dhabi University. He is a member of the Advisory Board of the Abu Dhabi University College of Business Administration. He authored the annual MENA Asset Management Survey between 2010 and 2013. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Florida International University. ________________________________________________________________________________________

1.202.857.3306 | www.iif.com/training | [email protected]

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