ADELAIDE...3 ADELAIDE OFFICE MARKET AUGUST 2017 RESEARCH MAJOR OFFICE SUPPLY 115 King William Street...

HIGHLIGHTS Average Prime incentives in the CBD Core now average 36.3% and typically range between 35% to 40%, compared with 30% to 35% in the second half of 2016.

Offshore purchasers are having an increasingly larger role within the Adelaide market, accounting for all prime grade transactions that have settled in the year to date.

Owners of secondary buildings face growing impetus to reposition their assets through refurbishment and upgrades in order to maintain relevance in the leasing market.

RESEARCH

ADELAIDE OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW AUGUST 2017

2

KEY FINDINGS

CBD prime yields firmed by 10

basis points from an average of

7.23% to 7.13%, while secondary

yields remained unchanged at

8.50%

Year to date investment volumes

stand at approximately $240

million, headlined by the sale of

45 Pirie Street and the MAC

Portfolio. Sales volumes totalled

$545.3 million at the same last

year.

Average prime incentives in the

CBD Core increased from 34.8%

to 36.3% over the previous six

months and now typically range

between 35% to 40%.

Tenant’s flight to quality has

placed pressure on secondary

buildings, highlighted by prime net

absorption of 6,138m² and

secondary net absorption of

-1,514m² in the six months to July

2017.

HENRY MATHEWS Research SA

SUPPLY & DEVELOPMENT

Gross supply for the Adelaide CBD

totalled just 5,227m² in the six months to

July 2017, approximately 62% below the

25 year average. The next significant

source of supply will be in Q3 2019, with

the expected completion of Charter Hall’s

21 level GPO Exchange development

(25,000m²) located at 2-10 Franklin

Street. Construction is expected to

commence in Q3 this year following a

49% tenant pre-commitment from the SA

Attorney General’s Department. The

development will provide floor plates of

circa 1,480m², incorporating the existing

heritage component on the lower levels.

With the exception of 2-10 Franklin

Street, there are no other significant

office developments or refurbishments

under construction in the Adelaide CBD

as the market absorbs existing stock and

attempts to reign in the vacancy level.

Smaller office supply will arise from

Uniting Communities’ 19 storey mixed

use development located on Pitt Street,

offering retail, office (6,600m²), retirement

living and disability respite

accommodation. Construction is

expected to be completed in Q3 2018,

with 66% of the office space to be owner

occupied by Uniting Communities and

the remainder (4,350m²) seeking tenant

commitment. Additionally, 74 Pirie Street

(1,500m²), a 7 storey building being

refurbished by Maras Group is expected

to commence construction shortly and be

completed by circa Q3 2018.

The four level 170 Frome Street (3,900m²)

completed in December 2016, is

marketing some 2,500m² following the

initial 38% pre-commitment from

accounting group Grant Thornton.

Elsewhere, the 23 level speculatively built

115 King William Street (6,775m²), which

was completed in October 2016, is being

offered to tenants as co-working space

and is also seeking tenants to fill

remaining vacancies.

Future projects include the new head

quarters for hospitality training school Le

Cordon Bleu at 200 North Terrace, which

has recently been revived. This is

proposed to be a 19 storey mixed use

tower (26,000m²) above the existing

heritage listed building. Walker

Corporation’s Festival Plaza development

(40,000m²) has no firm starting date.

New office supply is anticipated to be minimal until late 2019, providing the opportunity for the market to absorb existing stock.

TABLE 1

Grade Total

Stock (m²)

Vacancy

Rate (%)

Annual Net

Absorption

Annual Net

Additions

Average Gross

Face Rent ($/

Average

Incentive

Average Core

Market Yield

Prime 594,887 13.8 5,195 3,800 503 34.9 6.75—8.00

Secondary 829,546 17.8 821 17,711 371 34.1 8.00—9.25

Total Precinct 1,424,433 16.1 6,016 21,511

Market

CBD

CBD

CBD

Fringe 39,297 7.8 -260 2,000 442 20.0 7.25—8.00

Fringe 176,553 10.6 2,305 -1,559 345 20.0 8.00—8.50

Fringe 215,850 10.1 2,045 441

Total Market Adelaide 1,640,283 15.3 8,061 21,952

Source: Knight Frank Research/PCA NB. CBD includes the Core & the Frame precincts

FIGURE 1

Adelaide Gross Supply Additions CBD Office (000’s m²)

Source: Knight Frank Research/PCA

Update

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Projection

CBD GROSS SUPPLY 6 MONTHS TO... ('000m²)

25 YEAR AVERAGE

3

RESEARCH ADELAIDE OFFICE MARKET AUGUST 2017

MAJOR OFFICE SUPPLY

115 King William Street - 6,775m²

Local Private Developer - October 2016 - 15% committed

170 Frome Street - 3,900m² [Grant Thornton]

Emmett Properties - December 2016 - 38% committed

74 Pirie Street # - 1,500m²

Maras Group - Q2 2018

Pitt Street* - 6,600m²

Uniting Communities - Q3 2018 - 66% owner occupied

GPO Exchange, 2-10 Franklin Street - 25,000m² [SA Govt]

Charter Hall - Q3 2019 - 49% committed

Festival Plaza / Riverbank Precinct - 40,000m²

Walker Corp / SA Government - 2020

200 North Terrace - 26,000m² [Le Cordon Bleu]

Commercial & General - H2 2020 - N/A

Echelon, 322 King William Street^ - 12,482m²

Karidis - 2020

Gawler Chambers, 186-190 North Terrace - 5,500m²

Adelaide Development Company - 2020+

102-120 Wakefield Street - 16,500m²

Kyren Group - 2020+

42-56 Franklin Street - 21,000m²

Kyren Group - 2020+

185 Pirie Street - 6,000m²

Palumbo - 2020+

57-61 Wyatt Street - 4,180m²

Private - 2020+

Worldpark (Stage B & C) - Richmond Road, Keswick - 22,600m²

Axiom - 2020+

Under Construction / Complete

DA Approved / Confirmed

Mooted / Early Feasibility

15

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14

Worldpark,

Keswick

Riverbank

Precinct

NB. Dates are Knight Frank Research estimates

Major tenant pre-commitment in [brackets] next to NLA

# Refurbishment

* Mixed use development comprising retirement living, respite

accommodation, retail and office

^ Mixed use development comprising residential, hotel, retail

and office

11

8

2

15

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13

Source of Map: Property Council

7

3

4

4

privately and has seen minimal capital

upgrades from owners conscious of the

bottom line and in a more difficult

position to access funding for upgrades.

Further complicating this is the lack of

conversion demand more readily seen in

markets such as Sydney and Melbourne

to reposition assets for residential and

hotel use. The lower cost of development

sites and construction in Adelaide limits

feasibility, leaving some buildings both

unattractive to potential office tenants

and for conversion.

Net Absorption

The Adelaide CBD recorded positive net

absorption of 4,624m² in the six months

to July 2017 and 6,016m² over the

previous 12 month period. Highlighting

the flight to quality occurring within the

market, prime stock recorded absorption

of 6,138m² over the previous six months,

while secondary stock experienced

negative net absorption of -1,514m².

The South Australian economy has seen

positives arising from high retail sales, a

strengthening tourism industry and an

increase in defence spending as a result

of the $50 billion Federal Government

submarine contract. Despite these

positives, the South Australian

unemployment rate stands at 6.2% as at

July 2017, one of the highest in the

nation, and the state continues to face

challenges in regards to sluggish

Vacancy

The headline vacancy rate in the Adelaide

CBD was largely unchanged in the six

months to July 2017, decreasing from

16.2% to 16.1% and remaining above the

10 year average of 9.9%.

In the six months to July 2017, Prime

CBD vacancy decreased from 14.9% to

13.8% (see Table 2), with a decrease in

total vacant prime stock from 88,390m²

to 82,252m². Over the same six month

period, vacancy in CBD secondary grade

space increased from 17.2% to 17.8%,

an increase in total vacant stock from

142,469m² to 147,543m². With the

Adelaide market particularly reliant on the

movement of existing tenants, the

attractive incentives on offer and

efficiency gains from higher quality space

has seen a multitude of tenants upgrade

from secondary to prime space.

The Adelaide CBD contains a notable

proportion of ageing C and D grade office

space, accounting for 30.6% of total

stock. This is coupled with one of the

lowest proportions of Premium and A

grade stock in Australia, accounting for

41.8%. While high vacancy in secondary

stock has been a factor for some time,

there is a growing impetus for landlords

to refurbish to remain competitive,

illustrated by the divergence in vacancy

rates shown in Figure 2. Much of

Adelaide’s C and D grade stock is held

TENANT DEMAND & RENTS

population growth and rising electricity

costs.

White collar employment growth in the

CBD has continued to remain slow after

recording an increase of 0.7% over the

previous financial year. By sector,

increases in ‘Administrative and Support

Services’ and ‘Health Care and Social

Assistance’ were offset by decreases in

‘Public Administration and Safety’ and

‘Professional, Scientific and Technical

Services’. White collar employment is

forecast to increase marginally over the

next financial year with the expectation of

annual growth of approximately 1.1% in

2018/19, maintaining a similar level over

the subsequent 2-3 year period.

Source: Knight Frank Research/PCA Source: Knight Frank Research/PCA

Grade Jul

2016

Jan

2017

Jul

2017

Premium 8.3 8.3 10.2

A Grade 15.9 15.4 14.1

Prime 15.4 14.9 13.8

B Grade 14.2 15.6 16.7

C Grade 16.8 18.1 18.4

D Grade 20.0 20.2 19.5

Secondary 16.2 17.2 17.8

Total 15.8 16.2 16.1

TABLE 2

Adelaide CBD Vacancy Rates (%)


TABLE 3

Adelaide Fringe Vacancy Rates (%)

Grade Jul

2016

Jan

2017

Jul

2017

Premium - -

A Grade 2.1 4.7 7.8

Prime 2.1 4.7 7.8

B Grade 7.6 16.9 12.8

C Grade 12.8 11.4 10.0

D Grade 21.5 7.4 7.4

Secondary 11.9 12.6 10.6

Total 10.2 11.3 10.1

FIGURE 2

Adelaide CBD Vacancy Rates Prime vs. Secondary Grade (%)


FIGURE 3

Adelaide CBD Net Absorption (‘000m² LHS) vs Total Vacancy Rate (% RHS)

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NET ABSORPTION 6 MTHS TO…('000m²) LHS

CBD TOTAL VACANCY - RHS (%)

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

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PRIME SECONDARY

PRIME 10 YR AVERAGE SECONDARY 10 YR AVERAGE

5


Rental Levels

Increases in incentives and unchanged or

reduced gross face rents has resulted in

a further reduction in effective rents in the

CBD (Figure 4 and 5).

Average prime CBD gross face rents

remained unchanged at $503/m² in the

six months to July 2017, while incentives

increased from 32.5% to 34.9%. As a

result, gross effective rents decreased

from $339/m² to $328/m². Notably,

incentives in the Core now average

36.3% and typically range between 35%

to 40%, compared with 30% to 35% in

the second half of 2016.

In the secondary market, the impact of

the flight to quality has seen average

gross face rents decrease from $381/m²

Tenant Demand

Noteworthy tenant requirements in the

market include the SA State Government,

BHP and Suncorp. The SA State

Government’s requirement was for office

accommodation in the Adelaide CBD

Core or Frame and closed on the 30th of

June. This was a call to seek either new

or refurbished space, with one

requirement for approximately

9,000m² - 12,000m² from late 2019, and

the second for between 13,000m² -

16,000m² from late 2020. It’s understood

the SA State Government, BHP and

Suncorp’s options are currently in

deliberation.

Major tenant movements over the

previous six months include Great

Southern Rail relocating from a Fringe

location to 233 North Terrace, taking up

1,234m² for a 5 year term. First Mortgage

Services has also relocated, shifting from

the Frame to a Core location after

committing to a 5 year term at 115

Grenfell Street.

Looking forward, the most significant

prime tenant movement is the SA

Attorney General’s Department, following

their pre-commitment to the GPO

Exchange Development for 12+5+5

years. The SA Attorney General’s

Department recently agreed to a 5 year

extension on their current lease at 45

Pirie Street, resulting in a lease tail of

approximately two years once they have

relocated to the GPO development.

Source: Knight Frank Research

to $371/m² and incentives increase from

33.3% to 34.1% over the previous six

months. As a result, gross effective rents

decreased from $254/m² to $245/m².

The reduction in face rents in the

secondary market is a result of both

strong competition among landlords and

building ownership being largely privately

owned. The prevalence of private

ownership results in reduced capacity to

pay out up front capital incentives,

instead decreasing face rents to remain

attractive to tenants.

In the Fringe, prime and secondary gross

face rents were unchanged at

$442/m² and $345/m² respectively.

Incentives were also unchanged,

standing at approximately 20% for both

grades.


FIGURE 4

Adelaide CBD Gross Effective Rent

Growth Prime vs. Secondary Grade (%) p.a.

TABLE 4

Recent Leasing Activity Adelaide CBD and Fringe

Address NLA

(m²)

Face Rent

($/m²)

Term

(Yrs)

Incentive

(%)* Tenant Start Date

233 North Terrace 1,234 425g 5 27 Great Southern Rail Oct-17

60 Light Square 905 455g 5 # UniSA Sep-17

45 Pirie Street 15,000 545g 5 # SA Govt (AGD) Sep-17

108 North Terrace 2,800 480g 5 35 Optus Jul-17

75 Hindmarsh Square 830 495g 8 10 Nat. Rail Safety Regulator Jul-17

169 Pirie Street 380 440g 7 # Nat. Heavy Vehicle Regulator Jul-17

121 King William Street 660 515g 10 40 Colliers International May-17

1 Richmond Road 2,337 405g 8 # SA Power Networks Nov-17

Precinct

Fringe

Core

Frame

Core

Core

Core

Frame

Core

115 Grenfell Street Core 1,297 405g 5 # First Mortgage Services Nov-17

FIGURE 5

Adelaide CBD Prime Incentives vs.

Gross Effective Rents 2007 - 2017 ($/m² LHS, % RHS)


*estimated incentive calculated on a straight line basis g Gross # Undisclosed AGD refers SA Attorney General’s Department

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

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PRIME SECONDARY

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PRIME EFFECTIVE RENT - LHS ($/m²)

PRIME INCENTIVE - RHS (%)

6

historical peak for transaction volumes.

The first significant transaction of 2017

was the sale of 45 Pirie Street by CorVal

to Singapore based AEP Investment

Management in August. The building

transacted for $105 million and reflected

a WALE of approximately 4.0 years

(income) and a core market yield of 7.8%,

influenced by major tenant the SA

Attorney General’s Department (76%

NLA) relocating to the GPO Development.

The sale included an additional 952m²

site fronting Gawler Place used for car

Sales activity in 2017 has seen offshore

purchasers playing an increasingly larger

role within the Adelaide market,

accounting for all prime grade

transactions that have settled in the year

to date. CBD sales currently stand at

$240 million (for assets greater than $10

million), down from $545.3 million at the

same time last year and expected to be

below the total of $1.18 billion recorded

in 2016. Unsurprisingly, Adelaide’s

record transaction volumes came

approximately one year after the eastern

seaboard and this is expected to be a

parking but offering future development

potential.

Also in August, US based Blackstone

purchased the SA Motor Accident

Commission’s national property portfolio

containing a mixture of office and

industrial assets. The portfolio included

the Adelaide based 121 King William

Street and 99 Gawler Place, which

transacted for $58.4 million and $34.6

million respectively.

Other assets to transact included the

leasehold interest in the mixed use 141

Rundle Mall (Citi Centre) for circa $42.0

million. The 8 storey office tower

component is fully leased to SA Health

and the sale reflected a core market yield

of 10.0% and a WALE of 4.0 years.

In the lead up to the end of the financial

year, the second reduction in Stamp Duty

that occurred on 1 July 2017 saw some

sales campaigns temporarily put on hold

as purchasers waited to take advantage

of the savings on offer. Despite causing a

brief interval in sales activity, this initiative

has been a positive point of difference for

South Australia.

INVESTMENT ACTIVITY & YIELDS

TABLE 5

Recent Sales Activity Adelaide

Address Price

($ mil)

Core

Mkt

Yield

(%)

NLA

(M²)

NLA

($/m²)

WALE

(yrs) Vendor Purchaser

Sale

Date

45 Pirie Street 105.00 7.80 19,854 7,555 4.0 CorVal^ AEP Aug-17

121 King William Street ± 58.40 # 12,558 4,650 # SA Government (MAC) Blackstone Aug-17

99 Gawler Place ± 34.60 # 11,158 3,101 # SA Government (MAC) Blackstone Aug-17

Citi Centre, 141 Rundle Mall < c42.00 c10.0 16,375 2,534 c4.0 Private Private Aug-17

191 Fullarton Road* 9.43 7.61 2,326 4,053 2.8 Private Private Jan-17

25 Grenfell Street 125.10 7.48 25,544 4,929 5.0 GDI Funds Management Credit Suisse Dec-16

91 King William Street (50%) 88.50 7.00 31,399 5,638 3.1 Abacus Property Group ICAM Dec-16

97 King William Street 29.00 6.62 15,115 1,919 4.8 Charter Hall CPOF Private Dec-16

233 North Terrace 21.00 6.81 4,102 5,119 9.5 Australian Fashion Labels Private Dec-16

^ as responsible entity for the Value Active Fund AEP refers AEP Investment Management ± Part of a national portfolio # Undisclosed c Circa

MAC refers Motor Accident Commission < leasehold interest * Fringe ICAM refers Inheritance Capital Asset Management

CPOF refers Charter Hall Prime Office Fund



FIGURE 6

Adelaide CBD Sales $10 million+ By Purchaser Type ($m)


FIGURE 7

Adelaide CBD vs East Coast Yields Prime Core Market Yields

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

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SYDNEY BRISBANE

MELBOURNE ADELAIDE

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

AREIT DEVELOPER

OFFSHORE OWNER OCCUPIER

PRIVATE INVESTOR UNLISTED/SYNDICATE

YTD

7


The next significant source of

supply in the Adelaide CBD will

not be until Q3 2019, following

the expected completion of

Charter Hall’s GPO Exchange

development (25,000m²). Other

projects such as 200 North

Terrace (26,000m²) may progress

depending on further tenant pre-

commitment.

Secondary building owners face

amplifying requirements to

reposition their assets through

refurbishment and upgrades in

order to retain appeal.

Limited growth in face rents and

expanding incentives will

continue to place pressure on

effective rents.

The lack of supply over the short

term provides the opportunity for

the market to absorb existing

stock and stabilise the vacancy

rate.

Tenant demand is likely to

remain inconsistent in the short

term, with movements led by

existing tenants relocating,

taking advantage of efficiency

gains in prime grade buildings

and enticing incentives.

Offshore purchasers will

continue to expand their activity

within the Adelaide market as

investors follow suit to the likes

of Blackstone and Credit Suisse

and interest grows in the value

proposition on offer.

The firming bias of yields within

the prime market is expected to

persevere in the short term,

however will be driven by capital

market trends rather than

improvements in office market

fundamentals.

Outlook

Prime CBD yields compressed by 10

basis points in the six months to July

2017, decreasing from 7.23% to 7.13%.

This is 26 basis points lower than the

same time last year.

Prime yields remain approximately 200

basis points softer than that of Sydney,

and Melbourne (see Figure 7), enhancing

Adelaide’s value proposition and

reputation as a more affordable

investment opportunity. Adelaide

provides the opportunity for a reduction

in portfolio risk due to reduced volatility

and low correlation with rental growth

and vacancy to that of Melbourne and

Sydney.

In the CBD secondary market, yields did

not indicate any firming, remaining at an

average of 8.50%. As they stand,

secondary yields are 18 basis points

lower than the same time last year. The

secondary market did not follow trend

with the prime market over the previous

six months due to the heightened

prevalence of tenant’s flight to quality,

which has placed pressure on secondary

buildings. This has resulted in the

necessity to price in increased let up

periods, incentives and capital

improvements to retain leasing appeal.

Like the CBD secondary market,

Investment yields in the Fringe have also

remained unchanged in the six months to

July 2017. Average prime yields remained

at 7.60%, while secondary yields

remained at 8.40%.

It would appear less likely that the

aggressive yield compression

experienced across the market over the

past 24 months will continue, as

purchasers weigh the cost of finance and

tighter lending criteria into decision

making. Nevertheless, demand for prime

investments with secure and stable

tenancy profiles remains strong. Given

Adelaide's value proposition and

increased interest from overseas and

institutional investors, there is potential

for the firming bias of yields to continue

in the short term within the prime market,

particularly for core assets without

exposure to leasing risk.

Source: Knight Frank Research/RBA

FIGURE 8

Adelaide CBD Core Market Yields

Yields and Averages by Grade


FIGURE 9

Adelaide CBD Yields & Spreads

Core Market Yields vs 10 Yr Govt Bond Rate

0

50

100

150

200

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300

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400

450

500

550

600

650

1.0%

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SPREAD (RHS) PRIME YIELD (LHS)

10 YR GOVT BOND RATE (LHS) SPREAD 10 YR AVG (RHS)

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

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PRIME YIELD (LHS) SECONDARY YIELD

SECONDARY 10 YR AVG PRIME 10 YR AVG

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COMMERCIAL BRIEFING

RESEARCH

Henry Mathews Research Analyst - SA

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OFFICE LEASING

Martin Potter Senior Director

+61 8 8233 5208

[email protected]

Andrew Ingleton Associate Director

+61 8 8233 5229

[email protected]

VALUATIONS

James Pledge Managing Director, Valuations - SA

+61 8 8233 5212

[email protected]

Nick Bell Director, Valuations - SA

+61 8 8233 5242

[email protected]

http://www.knightfrank.com/Research�

ADELAIDE...3 ADELAIDE OFFICE MARKET AUGUST 2017 RESEARCH MAJOR OFFICE SUPPLY 115 King William Street...

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