Adaptation down under: planning for coastal resilience in Queensland

Marcello Sanò, PhD

Griffith Centre for Coastal Management | Moffatt & Nichol

Griffith Centre for Coastal Management | Moffatt & Nichol

Griffith Centre for Coastal Management | Moffatt & Nichol

Griffith Centre for Coastal Management | Moffatt & Nichol

Griffith Centre for Coastal Management | Moffatt & Nichol

Griffith Centre for Coastal Management | Moffatt & Nichol

Outline

Coastal hazards in Queensland

Research methods in climate

change adaptation

From research to practice:

developing coastal hazard

adaptation strategies

Benefits for the United States

Coastal hazards in Queensland

Coastal geography

25M people

High density coastal settlements

Tropical cyclones

Storm tides

Beach erosion

Ocean acidification (GBR)

Griffith Centre for Coastal Management | Moffatt & Nichol

Tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones

Storm tides (=storm surge+tide)

Coastal erosion

Coastal erosion

Inundations

Climate change

Climate change

Southward migration of cyclones

Increased intensity ~10%

Changes in the wave climate

Climate change

Proserpina Dam, Spain, 200 AD

Venice Murazzi, ca. 1750 AD

Commonwealth

Limited intervention in planning

Policy guidance in the coastal zone

Directly manage activities within the EEZ

International environmental affairs

$$$

States

Policy guidance in regional and

urban planning

Policy guidance in coastal hazard

management

Agriculture and fisheries

management

Nature conservation, parks

Social and economic affairs

Initiatives

Initiatives

Research methods in climate change adaptation

Methods

Vulnerability mapping

Social network analysis

Stakeholder-driven adaptation options

Scenario planning

Adaptive capacity: systems thinking

and bayesian modelling

Vulnerability

Identify vulnerable communities

Census and statistical data

Inform risk mapping

Social network analysis

Map community structure

Identify key stakeholders

Optimize stakeholder

engagement

Research-based pathways

Research-based policies

Scenario planning

Identify adaptation options with

stakeholders

Scenario planning: test

adaptation options under

different scenarios

Refine adaptation option pool

Adaptive capacity

Engage with stakeholders

Identify determinants of

adaptive capacity to implement

options

Use of systems thinking and

bayesian modeling

From research to practice: developing coastal hazard adaptation strategies

Decision making tool

Coastal hazard adaptation strategies (CHAS)

QLD Government $12M funding 2016-

2018

Local government $ matching

41 Local government areas eligible

Expert guidance, guidelines and tools

CHAS guidelines

1. Stakeholder engagement plan

2. Scoping of issues to be addressed

3. Coastal hazard mapping

4. Identification of system components

5. Risk mapping

6. Identification of adaptation options

7. Multi-criteria assessment and CBA

8. Trigger points for implementation, etc.

Stakeholder engagement plan

Scoping issues

• Coastal processes

• Ecosystems

• Buildings and infrastructure

• Socio-economics

• Selection of specific localities

Hazard mapping

Queensland Government maps:

Coastal erosion and storm tides

High or medium hazard areas

0.8 m sea level rise

1% AEP / 100 year ARI

GIS overlay to assets maps

Identification of system components

Coastal ecosystems and parks

Buildings and infrastructure

Planning instruments

Public services

Recreation, culture and

values

Risk = Probability x Consequences

Risk = Probability x Consequences

Identification of adaptation options

1. Regenerative options 1.1 Beach nourishment 1.2 Dune construction and regeneration

1.3 Riparian corridor restoration and generation

1.4 Wetland restoration

2. Coastal engineering options

2.1 Artificial reefs 2.2 Detached breakwaters

2.3 Groynes and artificial headlands 2.4 Sea dykes

2.5 Seawalls 2.6 Storm surge barriers

3. Coastal settlement design options

3.1 Building retrofitting and improved design

3.2 Flood-resilient public infrastructure 3.3 Raise land levels

4. Planning options 4.1 Development setbacks

4.2 Land buy-back 4.3 Land swap

4.4 Land-use planning

Socio-economic appraisal - MCA

Socio-economic appraisal - CBA

Implementation

1. Trigger points

2. Monitoring plan

(10 years

update)

3. Financial plan:

funding

mechanisms

Training Monday 29 of April

• Coastal Processes and impacts

• Coastal modeling

• Impacts, vulnerability and risk

• Shoreline erosion management

• Coastal hazard adaptation

Tuesday 30 of April

• Policies and planning

• Stakeholder engagement

• Shoreline Erosion Management Plans

• Coastal Hazard Adaptation Strategies

• Case studies

Potential applications to the US

East coast

California

Lousiana