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102
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 P etajoules actual forecast Hydro, wind, and other ren ewables NGLs Coalbed methane Conventional natural gas Mined and in situ bitumen Conventional heavy oil Conventional L&M oil Coal Total energy production in Alberta
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actual. forecast. NGLs. Hydro, wind, and other renewables. Coalbed methane. Conventional natural gas. Mined and in situ bitumen. Conventional heavy oil. Conventional L&M oil. Coal. Total energy production in Alberta. actual. forecast. Non upgraded bitumen. SCO. Pentanes plus. Heavy. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pe
tajo
ule
s
actual forecast
Hydro, wind, and other renewables
NGLs
Coalbed methane
Conventional natural gas
Mined and in situ bitumen
Conventional heavy oil
Conventional L&M oil
Coal
Total energy production in Alberta
Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent
0
100
200
300
400
500
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
103 m
3 /d
actual forecast
Non upgraded bitumen
Light-medium
SCO
Pentanes plus
Heavy
0
50
100
150
200
250
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
109 m
3
Residential demand Commercial demand Other Alberta demand Alberta gas removals
actual forecast
10.7
7.1
5.3
3.6
1.8
0
Tc
f
Total marketable gas production and demand
24% 25% 27% 35% 42%
Figure 1.2 OPEC crude basket reference price
40
45
50
55
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$US
/bb
l
Figure 1.3 Price of WTI at Chicago
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
$U
S/m
3
0
20
40
60
80
100
$U
S/b
bl
actual forecast
Figure 1.4 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Cd
n$
/m3
0
20
40
60
80
100
Cd
n$
/bb
l
actual forecast
Figure 1.5 2005 Average monthly reference prices of Alberta crudes
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cd
n$/
bb
l
Light-medium Heavy Bitumen
Figure 1.7 Average price of natural gas at plant gate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
$C
dn
/gig
ajo
ule
actual forecast
Drilling, casing, and completion cost estimates (PSAC 2004 and 2006 Well Cost Studies)
72.273.3
67.4 67.3
67.364.6
63.7
71.4
76.8
82.5
60
65
70
75
80
85
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ce
nts
Exchange rate
2.92.92.03.15.25.5
4.2
1.6
4.11.8
7.28.39.6
7.77.69.1
6.8 7.2 7.6 6.8
0
24
6
810
12
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005P
erc
en
tag
e
Real GDP growth Unemployment rate
2.21.92.82.2
2.71.71.61.6 0.9
2.64.06.6
6.14.2
6.45.0
7.35.8
4.7 4.4
02468
1012
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Inflation rate Prime rate on loans
Figure 1.9 Canadian economic indicators
Figure 1.10 Alberta real investment
0
20
40
60
80
100
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
bill
ion
s o
f C
dn
$
Other Residential Coal and metal mining Conventional oil and gas Oil sands
actual forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Initial reserves Remaining reserves
109 m
3
Crude oil Crude bitumen
Figure 2.2. Comparison of Alberta’s crude oil and crude bitumen reserves
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Conventional crude oil & pentanes plus SCO & bitumen
Figure 2.8. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production
Figure 2.9. Alberta crude bitumen production
0
100
200
300
400
500
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
103 m
3 /d
Surface mining
In situ
actual forecast
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Nu
mb
er o
f pro
du
cin
g w
ells
0
20
40
60
80
Producing Wells Production
Figure 2.10. Total in situ bitumen production and producing bitumen wells
Pro
du
cti
on
(1
03 m
3 /d
)
Figure 2.11. Alberta synthetic crude oil production
Synthetic Crude Oil
0
100
200
300
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
103 m
3 /d
Synthetic crude oil
actual forecast
Figure 2.14. Alberta demand and disposition of crude bitumen and SCO
Synthetic Crude Oil
0
100
200
300
400
500
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
103 m
3 /d
Alberta demand (mainly SCO)
actual forecast
SCO removals from Alberta
Nonupgraded bitumen removals
from Alberta
Figure 3.1. Remaining established reserves of crude oil
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
10
6 m3
Heavy
Light-medium
Figure 3.3. Annual changes to waterflood reserves
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
198619871988 1989199019911992199319941995 1996199719981999200020012002 200320042005
106 m
3
New waterflood Waterflood revisions
Figure 3.2. Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
10
6 m3
Additions Revisions
Figure 3.4. Distribution of oil reserves by size
Remaining reserves
(103m3)
Total number of pools
(103m3)
Initial reserves
(103m3)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Init
ial e
sta
blis
he
d r
es
erv
es
(1
06 m3 )
Average Median
Figure 3.5. Oil pool size by discovery year
Figure 3.7. Geological distribution of reserves of conventional crude oil
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400R
eser
ves
(10
6 m3 )
Initial established reserves Remaining established reserves
Figure 3.9. Alberta’s remaining established oil Reserves versus cumulative production
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Cumulative production (106 m3)
Rem
aini
ng e
stab
lishe
d oi
l res
erve
s (1
06 m
3 )
Year 1970
Figure 3.10. Growth in initial established reservesof crude oil
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
10
6 m3
Ultimate potential (3130)
actual forecast
Actual as of December 31, 2005
Figure 3.14. Conventional crude oil production by modified PSAC area
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
10
3 m3 /d
ay
PSAC 8
PSAC 7
PSAC 5
PSAC 3
PSAC 4
PSAC 2
PSAC 1
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
Nu
mb
er o
f wel
ls
0
50
100
150
200
250
Pro
du
ctio
n (1
03 m
3 /d)
Producing wells Production
Figure 3.15. Total crude oil production and producing oil wells
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0.0-2.0 2.1-5.0 5.1-8.0 8.1-20.0 20.1-50.0 50.1-100.0 100.1+
Production category (m3/d)
Nu
mb
er
of
we
lls
0
40
80
120
160
200
m3 /d
Producing wells Average rate
Figure 3.16. Crude oil well productivity in 2005
Figure 3.17. Total conventional crude oil production by drilled year
% of totalproduction from oil wells
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Pro
du
cti
on
(1
03 m
3 /d)
Pre-1996 20052004
20032002
20002001
19991998
19971996
5%
3%
4%
44%
6%
3%
10%
5%5%
7%
8%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
10
3 bb
l/d
Figure 3.18. Comparison of crude oil production
Texas onshore
Louisiana onshore
Alberta crude oil
Figure 3.19. Alberta crude oil price and well activity
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
we
lls
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
US
$/b
bl
Wells placed on production WTI @ Chicago
actual forecast
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pro
duct
ion
(10
3 m3 /d
)
actual forecast
Figure 3.20. Alberta daily production of crude oil
Heavy
Light-medium
Figure 3.21. Capacity and location of Alberta refineries
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Imperial Edmonton
Petro-Canada Edmonton
Shell Scotford
Husky Lloydminster
Parkland Bowden
Ref
iner
y ca
pac
ities
(m3 /d
)
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pro
duct
ion
(10
3 m3 /d
)
actual forecast
Figure 3.22. Alberta demand and disposition of crude oil
Crude oil removals from Alberta
Alberta demand
Figure 3.23. Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent
0
100
200
300
400
500
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
103 m
3 /d
actual forecast
Non upgraded bitumen
Light-medium
SCO
Pentanes plus
Heavy
Figure 3.24. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Conventional crude oil & pentanes plus SCO & bitumen
actual forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
10
9 m3
Figure 4.3 Coalbed methane production forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
10
9 m
3
Additions Production
Figure 5.1. Annual reserves additions and production of conventional marketable gas
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
109
m3
Figure 5.2. Remaining conventional marketable gas reserves
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
109
m3
New Development Revisions
Figure 5.3. New, development, and revisions to conventional marketable gas reserves
Figure 5.5. Distribution of conventional gas reserves by size
Remaining reserves
(109m3)
Total number of pools
(106m3)
Initial reserves
(109m3)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Es
tab
lish
ed
re
se
rve
s (
10
6 m3 )
Average Median
Figure 5.6. Conventional gas pools by size and discovery year
0
400
800
1200
1600
200010
9 m3
Initial marketable reserves Remaining marketable reserves
Figure 5.7. Geological distribution of conventional marketable gas reserves
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
109 m
3
Figure 5.8. Remaining conventional marketable reserves of sweet and sour gas
Sweet natural gas
Sour natural gas
20
50
60
90
45
35
30
10
100
35
15
10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Methane Ethane Propane Butanes Pentanes plus
Per
cent
age
of c
ompo
nent
Removed at field plants Removed at straddle plants Marketable gas
Figure 5.9. Expected recovery of conventional natural gas components
Figure 5.10. Growth in initial established reserves of conventional marketable gas
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
10
12m
3 a
t 3
7.4
MJ
/m3
Ultimate potential (6.52)
actual forecast
Actual as of December 31, 2005
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
109 m
3
Ultimate potential based on 2004 study
Figure 5.11. Conventional gas ultimate potential
Remaining reserves
Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
UpperCretaceous
LowerCretaceous
Jurassic Triassic Mississippian Devonian
Gas
in p
lace
(10
9 m3 )
Ultimate potential Discovered gas in place
Figure 5.13. Conventional gas in place by geological period
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Num
ber o
f wel
ls
Drilled Connected
Figure 5.15. Successful conventional gas wells drilled and connected
Figure 5.18. Marketable gas production by modified PSAC area
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
10
9 m3
PSAC 6
PSAC 4
PSAC 5
PSAC 2
PSAC 3
PSAC 1
Gas from oil wells
PSAC 7
PSAC 8
% of totalproduction from oil wells
Connection year
2%
4%3%
12%
5%
20%
38%
5%
10%
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Nu
mb
er o
f pro
du
cin
g w
ells
0
50
100
150
200
250
Pro
du
ctio
n (1
09 m
3 )
Producing wells Production
Figure 5.19. Conventional marketable gas production and number of producing wells
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
0.0-2.0 2.1-5.0 5.1-8.0 8.1-20.0 20.1-50.0 50.1-100.0 100.1+
Production category (103m3/d)
Nu
mb
er o
f pro
du
cin
g w
ells
0
100
200
300
400
Pro
du
ctio
n (1
09 m
3 )
Producing wells Average rate
Figure 5.20. Natural gas well productivity in 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Pro
du
cti
on
(1
09 m
3 /d)
Pre-1996
20052004
20032002
20002001
19991998
1997
1996
Gas from oil wells
Figure 5.21 Raw gas production by connection year
% of totalproduction from oil wells
3
Connection year
2
4
27
8
7
10
12
17
4
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Pro
du
cti
vit
y (
103
m3 /d
)
AlbertaAlberta excluding PSAC Area 3PSAC Area 3 (Southeastern Alberta)
Figure 5.22 Average initial natural gas well productivity in Alberta
Figure 5.23. Alberta natural gas well activity and price
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Nu
mb
er o
f wel
ls
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$Cd
n/G
J
New well connections Alberta plant gate price
actual forecast
Figure 5.24. Conventional marketable gas production
0
50
100
150
200
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
109 m
3
actual forecast
7.1
5.3
3.6
1.8
0
Tc
f
0
100
200
300
400
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
109
m3
Figure 5.25. Historical volumes “available for permitting”
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Tc
f
Figure 5.26. Comparison of natural gas production
Texas onshore
Louisiana onshore
Alberta
Figure 5.27. Gas production from bitumen upgrading and bitumen wells
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
106 m
3
Process gas from upgrading operations Gas from bitumen wells
actual forecast
Figure 5.28. Total gas production in Alberta
0
50
100
150
200
250
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
109 m
3
Conventional marketable gas Coalbed methane
Process gas from upgrading bitumen Gas from bitumen wells
actual forecast
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
106 m
3
2003 2004 2005
Figure 5.30. Alberta natural gas storage injection/withdrawal volumes
Figure 5.31. Alberta marketable gas demand by sector
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
10
9 m3
Reprocessing plant shrinkage
Transportation
Electricity generation
Other industrial
Industrial - petrochemical
Industrial – oil sands
Residential
Commercial
actual forecast
Figure 5.32. Gas demand for bitumen recovery and upgrading
0
5
10
15
20
25
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
10
9 m3
actual forecast
Purchased gas
Produced gas from bitumen
Process gas from upgrading*
* Some 1.2 109m3 of process gas not shown on this chart is used for electricity generation (2006-2015).
0
50
100
150
200
250
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
109 m
3
Residential demand Commercial demand Other Alberta demand Alberta gas removals
actual forecast
10.7
7.1
5.3
3.6
1.8
0
Tc
f
Figure 5.33. Total marketable gas production and demand
24% 25% 27% 35% 42%
Figure 6.1. Remaining established NGL reserves expected to be extracted from conventional gas and annual production
0
30
60
90
120
150
Ethane Propane Butanes Pentanes Plus
Liq
uid
vo
lum
e (
10
6 m3 )
Reserves Annual production
Figure 6.2. Remaining established reserves of conventional natural gas liquids
0
50
100
150
200
250
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Es
tab
lish
ed
re
se
rve
s (
10
6 m3 )
Ethane Propane Butanes Pentanes plus
Figure 6.4. Ethane supply and demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
10
3 m
3 /d
Supply Alberta demand*
actual forecast
* Excludes solvent flood volumes
Figure 6.5. Propane supply from natural gas and demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
10
3 m
3 /d
Supply Alberta demand*
actual forecast
* Excludes solvent flood volumes
Figure 6.6. Butanes supply from natural gas and demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
10
3 m
3 /d
Supply Alberta demand*
actual forecast
* Excludes solvent flood volumes
Figure 6.7. Pentanes plus supply from natural gas and demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
10
3 m
3 /d
Supply Alberta demand*
actual forecast
* Excludes solvent flood volumes
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
106 t
Figure 7.1. Sources of sulphur production
Sour gas
Refining and upgrading
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2003 2004 2005
10
3 t
Syncrude Suncor Shell
Figure 7.2. Sulphur production from oil sands
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Australia Brazil China NewZealand
SouthAfrica
Others
10
3 t
2003 2004 2005
Figure 7.3. Canadian sulphur offshore exports
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
106
t
Figure 7.4. Sulphur demand and supply in Alberta
Alberta demand
Removed from Alberta
Stockpile
actual forecast
0
10
20
30
1874 1884 1894 1904 1914 1924 1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004
10
6 t
Subbituminous Bituminous thermal Bituminous metallurgical
Figure 8.1 Total coal production
Figure 8.3. Alberta marketable coal production
0
10
20
30
40
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
106
t
Subbituminous Thermal bituminous Metallurgical bituminous
actual forecast
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