Activities on monitoring and modelling of POPs in 2014 and future work

EMEP Steering Body, Geneva, 2014

Activities on monitoring and modelling of POPs in 2014 and

future work

Victor Shatalov on behalf of MSC-E and CCC


EMEP activities on POPs in 2014• Emission data for modelling (CIEP, MSC-E)

• Monitoring of POPs within EMEP (CCC)

• Operational modelling within the EMEP region (MSC-E)

Assessment of long-term changes of POP pollution (1990 – 2012)

Evaluation of transboundary transport in 2012

Evaluation of long-term trends of contamination of the EMEP region

• Research and development:

Assessment of the role of secondary emissions and non-EMEP emission sources in POP pollution on the base of the GLEMOS model

Pilot study on PCDD/F contamination on the global scale with the use of emission inventory obtained under the Stockholm Convention

Refinement of model parameterization

• Co-operation with national experts, international organizations and programmes

Co-operation with ICP Vegetation

Co-operation with international conventions and programmes (UNEP, HELCOM, …)

Preparation of boundary data for national modelling in Italy

• Further development of MSC-E web-site (in English and in Russian)

The work on evaluation of POP contamination is performed in collaboration with Parties, Convention bodies (WGE, TFMM, TFEIP, TFHTAP, ICPs) and international organizations (Stockholm Convention, HELCOM, AMAP)

All the information is presented in MSC-E and CCC reports and at the web-site www.msceast.org including special web-page in Russian for EECCA countries.


Emission data for modelling

EMEP official emissions data (Parties, CEIP):

• Time-series of national emission totals (1990 – 2012, Parties, annually)

• Gridded sectoral emissions (Parties, once in five years)

• Emissions from Large Point Sources (Parties, once in five years)

• Gridded emissions for the latest reported year (2012, CEIP, annually)Additional emissions data for modelling (MSC-E):

• Time-series of gridded annual emissions for 1990-2012 or larger (all)

• Congener composition of emissions (PCDD/Fs – 17 congeners, PCBs)

• Historical emissions of PCDD/Fs, HCB and PCB-153 (up to 1990)

• Intra-annual variations of emissions (all)

• Emissions to other environmental compartments (PCDD/Fs, HCB)

• Gridded emissions on a global scale (PCDD/Fs, HCB, PCB-153)


Monitoring of POPs within EMEP

Measurement network for POPs in 2002 and 2012

Not all considered POPs (PAHs, HCB, PCBs) are measured at the shown monitoring sites.No measurements of PCDD/F at the EMEP monitoring network.

Coverage of the EMEP domain by measurements is still incomplete.


Supplementary measurement data

Detailed references on PCDD/F measurements used in the EMEP reports [Shatalov et al., 2013; Gusev et al.,

2014]

Measurements of PCDD/Fs in air in remote and rural areas (2002-2011; compiled by MSC-E):

• Europe: Italy, Denmark, France, Germany, the UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, Spain [Castro-Jimenez et al., 2012;…]

• North America: the USA, Canada [Lorber et al., 2013;…]

• Southeast Asia: Taiwan, China, Japan, South Korea [Chi et al., 2013;…]

• Regional POP networks (EMEP, AMAP, IADN, …)

• Global and regional POP monitoring programs (GAPS, MONET, PNA COP, …) available through GMP of Stockholm Convention

• European measurement database AirBase

Other pollutants: POP passive sampling programs

Monitoring


Evaluation of pollution changes from 1990 to 2012

HCB, 1990HCB, 1990

HCB, 2012HCB, 2012

PCB-153, 1990PCB-153, 1990

PCB-153, 2012PCB-153, 2012

PAHs, 1990PAHs, 1990

PAHs, 2012PAHs, 2012

Comparison of spatial distribution of POP air concentrations in 1990 and 2012

Operational activities

PCDD/Fs, 1990PCDD/Fs, 1990

PCDD/Fs, 2012PCDD/Fs, 2012

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

PA

Hs

PC

DD

/Fs

PC

B-1

53

HC

B

Relative changes of POP air concentrations

in the entire EMEP domain

from 1990 to 2012


Reduction of POP pollution in the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012, PCDD/Fs

(total toxicity)


1990

2012

Reduction of PCDD/F air concentrations in three

groups of the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

EU EECCA Other EMEP

Large reduction (up to 90%)

Small reduction (2% – 30%)

EU28

Country Reduction 1990 – 2012

the Netherlands 93%

Belgium 90%

the UK 75%

… …

Turkey 9%

Kyrgyzstan 2%


Reduction of POP pollution in the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012, 4 indicator

PAHsReduction of PAH air

concentrations in three groups

of the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

EU EECCA Rest EMEP


1990

2012 Small reduction or even increase

Negative values mean increase (2% – 20%)

Country Reduction 1990 – 2012

the UK 90%

Germany 70%

… …

Portugal – 3%

Azerbaijan – 5%

Kyrgyzstan – 22%

incre

as

e


Reduction dynamics of POP pollution in the EMEP countries

Exemplified by B[a]P

Considered period: from 1990 to 2010 (to be performed each 5 years?)

Discussed at TFMM meeting in Bologna, Italy, April 2014

Reduction rates are not homogeneous in time

Bi-exponential trends were applied (see MSC-E Technical Report, 2014)


the United Kingdom Belarus

Reduction 1990 – 2000 85% 12%

Reduction 2000 – 2010 70% 0%

Belarus

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2010

ng

/m3

Exponential component

Constant component

Concentrations

the UK

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0.25

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0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

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/m3

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Concentrations


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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Measurements

Reduction dynamics of POP pollution: seasonal variations


Calculated B[a]P air concentrations in the Czech Republic, 1990 – 2010, monthly means

Pronounced seasonal variations are seen

Methodology of trend analysis taking into account seasonal variations should be elaborated.

To be discussed at the forthcoming TFMM workshop (November 2014)

0.0

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0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

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1.8

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Measurements

Trend

Averaged trend does not show maximum values

0.0

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0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Measurements

Trend

Maximum


Reduction of POP pollution in the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012, PCB-153

and HCB


PCB-153

• National emissions• Transboundary transport• Non-EMEP sources• Secondary sources

Reasons of reduction:

1990

2012

• PCB-153 – 80%• HCB – 90%

Reduction:

Main factors for PCBs and HCB


Evaluation of contamination at the global scale

PCDD/FsPCDD/Fs PCB-

153PCB-153 HCBHCB

On the basis of global calculations evaluation of the contributions of non-EMEP sources and secondary emissions to the pollution by contaminants with high transport distance was done (in collaboration with TFHTAP)

Research and development

EMEP domain


Contributions of various source categories to

the contamination of the EMEP region in 2012

Discussed at TFMM meeting in Bologna, Italy in April 2014

Evaluation of contributions of EMEP anthropogenic, secondary and non-EMEP emissions to the contamination of the EMEP region

PCDD/Fs PCB-153 HCB


EMEP secondary emissions

68%

EMEP anthropogenic

emissions23%

non-EMEP emissions

9%EMEP

secondary emissions

75%

EMEP anthropogenic

emissions1%

non-EMEP emissions

24%

EMEP

secondary emissions

20%

non-EMEP emissions

19%EMEP

anthropogenic emissions

61%

Transboundary transport within EMEP

Depositions to France, g TEQ/y

Non-EMEP,

177.7, 30%

Other, 87.4,

15%

Belgium, 15.7, 3%

Italy, 29.0, 5%

United Kingdom,

31.3, 5%

Spain, 27.7, 5%

France, 220.8,

37%

total - 590 g TEQ/y

Depositions from France, g TEQ/y

France, 220.8, 66%

Russian Federation, 9.8,

3%

Germany, 20.9, 6%

Belgium, 10.0, 3%

United Kingdom, 9.1, 3%

Other, 64.9, 19%

total 335 g TEQ/y


Pilot study on PCDD/Fs

Major reasons: Incompleteness of regional and global inventories of anthropogenic

PCDD/F emissions Uncertainties of estimates of secondary emissions and behaviour in

media Lack of regular monitoring of atmospheric concentrations

Aim of the study: Evaluate global scale transport and pollution levels using estimates

of global PCDD/F emissions based on the UNEP SC inventory

Challenges: Underestimation of observed PCDD/F pollution levels in the EMEP

countries by modelling results



Scenario of global PCDD/F emissions

• is based on the UNEP Standardized Dioxins Toolkit

•contains PCDD/F emission totals for 68 countries over the globe (including 15 EMEP countries)

•estimates of releases to air, soil and water

Emissions of PCDD/Fs to the environmental media evaluated on the basis of UNEP SC inventory, kg TEQ/yr

UNEP SC inventory of PCDD/F emissions [Fiedler, 2007; Fiedler et al., 2012]:


Air, 74.3

Soil, 9.7

Water, 4.3


Scenario of global PCDD/F emissions

Spatial distribution of annual PCDD/F emission is based on population density (1°x1°)

Annual emissions to air (ng TEQ/m2/yr)

Annual emissions to soil (ng TEQ/m2/yr)

UNEP SC data for 68 countries are complemented by estimates of emissions for other countries using regression relationship between annual PCDD/F releases and GDP (Gross Domestic Product):

Release = A × (GDP/Pers) – B , similar to [Cao et al., 2013]

A and B are defined by linear regression between Log(Release) and Log(GDP/Pers).



Official EMEP emissions vs scenario based on the UNEP SC inventory

For the majority of the EMEP countries officially reported PCDD/F emissions are lower than estimates of the experimental scenario based on the UNEP

SC inventory


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SC inventory

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Scenario based on UNEP SC inventory


Model simulations and results

• Global scale model runs with 1°x1° resolution (reference year 2012)

• Spin-up model simulations for several decades to obtain initial conditions

• Modelling is carried out with the emissions of total toxicity of 17 2,3,7,8-substituted (toxic) PCDD/F congeners to air and soil

Modelled annual mean PCDD/F air concentrations, fg I-TEQ/m3/yr

Modelled annual mean PCDD/F concentrations in soil, ng I-TEQ/kg



Evaluation of model results against measurements

Annual mean modelled and observed PCDD/F air concentrations

0.1

1

10

100

0.1 1 10 100

Observed, fg I-TEQ/m3

Mo

de

lle

d,

fg I

-TE

Q/m

3 North America

Underestimation 4.8 times;

Correlation = 0.5

0.1

1

10

100

0.1 1 10 100


Mo

de

lle

d,

fg I

-TE

Q/m

3 Eastern Asia

Underestimation 1.9 times

Correlation = 0.8

0.1

1

10

100

0.1 1 10 100


Mo

de

lle

d,

fg I

-TE

Q/m

3

Europe

Underestimation 1.5 times

Correlation = 0.5

EMEP domain

The US PCDD/F emission (g I-TEQ/yr):

- USEPA emissions: 1352

- Extrapolation from SC data: 4018

- [Zhang et al., 2009,AE]: 3425



Modelling with official EMEP emissions and scenario based on the UNEP SC inventory

(EMEP domain)

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1

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0.1 1 10 100


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Q/m

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-TE

Q/m

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Emission scenario based on the UNEP SC data – reasonable

agreement

Official emissions reported by the EMEP countries – underestimation

Model predictions vs measurements for the EMEP domain

factor of 2

factor of 5

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0.1 1 10 100


Mo

de

lle

d,

fg I

-TE

Q/m

3 North America



Concluding remarks


For a number of countries emissions calculated on the basis of UNEP SC inventory exceed those based on the EMEP official emission data

Secondary emissions and non-EMEP emission sources can noticeably contribute to pollution of EMEP countries

Further progress requires refinement of PCDD/F emissions for EMEP domain and other regions and developing of global historical emissions

Closer co-operation between CLRTAP and UNEP SC with respect to compilation of emissions and assessment of pollution is of importance

Experimental modelling with global emissions based on the UNEP SC inventory of PCDD/F releases provides reasonable agreement between model predictions and measurements


34th International Symposium on Halogenated Persistent Organic Pollutants

More that 650 abstracts from about 40 countries

Scientific program:

• Sources, formation, transport and fate, monitoring of levels in the environment, trends, human exposure, and risk assessment for new and legacy POPs

Special session:

• 10th anniversary of the Stockholm Conventions on POPs

Long-term trends in observed concentrations of POPs: contribution of EMEP to the Global Monitoring Plan of the SC (CCC)

Pilot modelling of PCDD/F transport and fate on global scale and within the EMEP region (MSC-E)

Co-operation

EMEP contribution


Co-operation between CLRTAP and UNEP SC

There is substantial potential for collaboration:

listing of chemicals, compilation of emissions, assessment of pollution levels, trends,…

SC Secretariat at the 37th EMEP SB session (2013):

proposal to enhance co-operation of SC with EMEP on air monitoring, emission inventories and long-range transport modelling of POPs

Further step in this direction:

Memorandum of Understanding to provide basis for closer co-operation and exchange of information [Geneva, September 2013]

Co-operation


Long-term cooperation with HELCOM

Changes of Cd, Pb, Hg, and PCDD/F deposition to the Baltic Sea from 1990 to

2011

Annual PCDD/F deposition in 2011, ng TEQ/m2/year

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90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11

De

po

sitio

n, %

to

19

90

Cd Hg

Pb PCDD/Fs

Atmospheric input of HMs and POPs to Baltic Sea

Co-operation


Co-operation with ICP Vegetation

Correlation coefficient

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1 B[a]P B[b]F

B[k]F IP

Modelled annual deposition of B[a]P and measurements of B[a]P concentrations in mosses in

2010

Correlation coefficients between calculated deposition and concentrations in

mosses

Discussed at ICP Vegetation Task Force, Paris, January 2014

Sub-grid variations can affect the comparison. Modelling with finer spatial resolution is required

Co-operation


Co-operation with countriesCo-operation

In the framework of co-operation with the Italian national agency (ENEA), boundary conditions for modelling of 4 PAHs for 2010 by the national modelling system MINNI were prepared.

Agreed area

Annual mean air concentrations of B[a]P in 2010 in the EMEP domain and in the agreed area, ng/m3


MSC-E web site: www.msceast.org

Measurement data

Modelling results

Assessment of effects

Dissemination of EMEP information

Emissions data


Information for EECCA countries in Russian


MSC-E work-plan elements in 2015Operational activities


Co-operation and dissemination of information (1.1.7, 1.3.9, 1.6.2, 1.6.3, 4.3)

Evaluate POP contamination levels and transboundary transport in the EMEP region for 2013, including ecosystem-dependent deposition (1.3.2)

Estimate contamination trends (1.1.4)

Develop near real time concentrations and deposition data for 2014 (1.3.9)

Test regional version of GLEMOS in long-lat grid including SR relationships (1.3.4)

Further estimate intercontinental transport and contributions of secondary sources to POP pollution in the EMEP domain (1.3.6, 1.6.2)

Refine model description of the interaction between POPs and atmospheric aerosol (1.3.8 c)

Investigate the influence of climate change on secondary emissions of POPs (1.3.8 d)

Activities on monitoring and modelling of POPs in 2014 and future work

Documents

Transcript of Activities on monitoring and modelling of POPs in 2014 and future work