World

Russia

Poland USA

India

Belgium

CanadaIta

ly

New Zealand

Austria

DenmarkSpain

France

Finland

Australia

Norway

China

Switzerla

nd

Germany

Ireland

Netherlands

Wales UK

Sweden 0

5

10

15

20

25

Road fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants

Wales Scotland England0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Proportion commuting to work by car

Hull Bristol0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Proportion increase in walking and cycling

80-100% in favour

1994-98 av-

erage

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

OtherPedal CyclistsPedestrian

Proportion of KSI casualties in Wales

up to 20

30 40 50 60 700

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

PedestrianPedal cycle

Casualties by speed limit

20mph 30mph0

5

10

15

20

25

Probability of death if struck by vehicle at…

Speed Drink driving Seatbelt non-wearing0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40Reduction in road fatalities

for a 10% reduction in these

The experience from Hull

Serious and fatal in-juries

Child pedestrian casualties

Traffic accidents

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

%

“Many countries in Europe apply strict liability to vulnerable road victims, e.g. pedestrians, children and cyclists.

To vary[ing] degrees, these are applied in Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy Netherlands and Sweden”.

Norman Baker MP, UK Transport Minister

While what is provided could generously be described as ‘an exploration of problems…’, the exploration is not thorough, authoritative or comprehensive.

The consultation document states that: “There is no conclusive evidence suggesting this trend of increasing traffic demand will reverse soon”. The whole premise of the sentence is false.

Statistically, the data presented are meaningless.

The statement: “It is also important to note that slow and congested traffic can result in higher CO2 emissions than free-flowing traffic”. needs to be challenged.

the information comes from 2005 and is therefore at least six years out of date.

No information is provided in support of any of these contentions.

The use of the misnomer “Figure 10: Sustainable Development” is the cherry on the cake. It is difficult to see how a noise map could in any shape or form be the sole indicator of sustainable development.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201016,000

16,500

17,000

17,500

18,000

18,500

19,000

19,500

Total annual traffic volumes in south Wales

Accident rate compared to UK motorway average (2009-2010)

2006-08 2009-10

M4 J28-J29 54.9 35.7

M4 J27-J28 76.4 51.0

M4 J26-J27 165.7 45.0

M4 J25a-J26 106.6 93.9

M4 J24-J25 161.5 75.3

M4 J23a-J24 40.3 46.9

M4J23-J23a 32.3 16.7

Conclusions

Responses to consultations can only ever be as good as the material provided. This consultation suffers from multiple flaws: • An underlying assumption that there has been and will continue to be an increase

in traffic volumes on the M4 when in fact they have declined since 2004 or 2007, depending on the measure used

• Poor use of data from which consultees could draw erroneous conclusions• Erroneous presentation of data• Preferential selection of data that could skew consultees’ responses in favour of

new infrastructure• A proliferation of unsubstantiated and misleading statements• Misplaced faith in the now discredited ‘predict and provide’ method of transport

planning• Failure to understand ‘sustainable development’ even as consultation is ongoing

for a Bill to make sustainable development the central organising principle of government

In combination, the flaws are fatal for this consultation. It must be withdrawn.

Slide 1 http://www.flickr.com/photos/jmbo82/313823593/ Slide 8 http://www.flickr.com/photos/shanetuk/5491541318/Slide 16 http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinksherbet/179279964/sizes/o/in/photostream/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/stuckincustoms/4991717429 http://www.flickr.com/photos/alain_limoges/5485378183 http://www.flickr.com/photos/dexxus/6335746903/

Slide 17 http://www.flickr.com/photos/drive-design/3113761021/ Slide 18 http://www.flickr.com/photos/isherwoodchris/4295776610/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/humaninterface/5559445128http://www.flickr.com/photos/22420011@N05/2197132041

Slide 19 http://www.bicyclenetwork.com.au/general/bike-futures/40410/ Slide 20 http://www.flickr.com/photos/loose_grip_99/2535820294/Slide 22 http://www.flickr.com/photos/brandondoran/5196993419/ Slide 23 http://www.flickr.com/photos/lwr/4833385709/ Slide 24 http://www.flickr.com/photos/planetmike/118785321/ Slide 25 http://www.flickr.com/photos/garry61/3472434787/Slide 26 http://www.flickr.com/photos/cosmicmoonchild/2951379685/ Slide 29 http://www.uctc.net/access/35/access35_Traffic_Congestion_and_Grenhouse_Gases.shtml

Image credits