Achievable Roadmaps for Solar PV in India

RISE 2016

23rd September 2016

SANDEEP R. KOPPIKAR

Chief Technology Officer

Waaree Energies Ltd

Mumbai

Contents

• Recent trends in PV

• Types of roadmaps

• Is it time for vertical integration in PV manufacturing?

• Why invest in high efficiency?

• Dual-purpose technology roadmaps

• Technology learning curves

Forecast Market Shares: c-Si PV Technology

S Raithel et. al., International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV). Available online at: http://www.itrpv.net/

Evolutionary path for c-Si with minimal capex increment

Captive IP. High cost

High Capex Investment.

Approaching end-of-life

Roadmaps Goals

• Cell Efficiency

• Module Efficiency

• Energy Yield (kWh/kWp)

• Product Cost ($/Wp)

• LCOE ($/kWh)

• Reliability & Durability

• Domestic Supply-Chain

• PV as an Enabling Technology

• Recyclability

• Minimum Capex and/or Opex

• Minimum pay-back time

• Minimum time to install

• Minimum land use

• Minimum degradation in field

• Maximum energy generation

• High quality

• Easy to transport

• Easy to maintain. Anti-soiling

• Easy and cheap to recycle

Choose the 3 most important roadmaps, and the 3 most important goals. Do they match?

$/W cost roadmap

Efficiency and $/kWh roadmap

Reliability & durability roadmap

PV as an “enabling” technology

2010 2016

Are modules really going to last 25 years in Indian conditions? How will we recycle failed modules?

Can higher $/Wp help to achieve lower $/kWh? How to motivate investors to climb over the price-barrier?

Can PV help enable progress in irrigation and water management? Build out cold-chains? Desalination?

Will vertical integration make us more competitive? When will the complete PV supply-chain (e.g. Silane, EVA, glass companies) invest in India?

Barriers to the adoption of new Cell & Module technologies

Standard c-Si (China):

• Low-cost, scalable, but limited conversion efficiency, low performance ratios and fast degradation in Indian conditions

• Scaling enabled lower costs, but is now a source of enormous inertia (resistance to innovations that might obsolete investments in current technologies)

High efficiency (e.g. Panasonic, SPWR):

• Highest commercial efficiencies, but high Capex & Opex

• No supply chain in India (high purity gases and chemicals)

• Daunting cost of scaling in India (high cost of capital, forex exchange rate fluctuations, uncertainty about policies, risk-free land availability)

• Reliability under Indian conditions is unproven. Bankability risk

Cost roadmap: Vertical Integration Removes Hidden Manufacturing Costs

Poly

Crystal

Wafer

Cell Module

Cost/Watt

Stages of manufacturing

Poly

Crystal

Wafer

Cell

Module

Cost/Watt

Stages of manufacturing

Poly

Crystal

Wafer

Cell

Module

Cost/Watt

Stages of manufacturing

True vertical integration under one ownership

No vertical integration, high volume of imports

GST will enhance the value of vertical integration

Profit margin to supplier + cost of transportation + cost of foreign exchange + import duties, etc.

Goods and Services Tax (GST)

TRUE vertical integration under one brandname: • Fewer hidden costs • More control over supply chain • Easier access to new technologies • Better cost and quality control

• Cost leader

100% imported

Almost 100% imported

Reliability roadmap: What are the main problems plaguing solar modules in India?

High power degradation rates due to:

• Solar cell cracks – Poor Cell and Module transportation methods

• Bad roads

• High-impact events during load/unload

– Poor installation practices

• Over-tightening of clamps

• Walking on modules

– Microcracks during module manufacture

• Poor equipment preventive maintenance

• Poor support from equipment suppliers

• EVA degradation, Soiling, Thermal losses

Reliability roadmap: Develop or acquire technologies to address known problems

Efficiency roadmap: Can we learn to surmount the price barrier for new technologies?

High Efficiency (HE) c-Si based on estimate of SPWR reported module costs (“cost per-watt targets…decreased from

$1.79/watt in 2010 to $1.49/watt in 2011, to $1.20/watt in 2012” 2012 Annual Report; 20% reduction in 2013, SPWR website),

reported gross margin (28% in Q4 ’13, SPWR Q4 ‘13 Earnings), module cost & efficiency road map (SPWR Analyst Day, 5/13).

Sources: SunPower SEC filings, and SPWR Analysts Day, May 2013, Available Online at: http://investors.sunpower.com/events.cfm

The leading technology companies endured years of losses and several learning cycles

PV Module Cost Forecast (excl. Performance)

$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

Tier 1Leader c-Si

(330W)

HE c-Si(407W)

Tier 1Leader c-Si

(345W)

HE c-Si(415W)

HJT (397W) Tier 1Leader c-Si

(371W)

HE c-Si (454) HJT (419W)

2014 2017 2020

Cu

rre

nt

$U

.S. p

er

W

c-Si PV: Efficiency-Adjusted Module Costs

Modules

Cells

Wafer

Ingot

Poly

2014 2017 2020

Performance Adjusted PV Module Costs

$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

Tier 1Leader c-Si

(330W)

HE c-Si(407W)

Tier 1Leader c-Si

(345W)

HE c-Si(415W)

HJT (397W) Tier 1Leader c-Si

(371W)

HE c-Si (454) HJT (419W)

2014 2017 2020

Cu

rre

nt

$U

.S. p

er

W

c-Si PV: Efficiency-Adjusted Module Costs Efficiencyadjustment range

Efficiencyadjustment

Modules

Cells

Wafer

Ingot

Poly

2014 2017 2020

Efficiency and energy yields at STC corrected to real operating conditions. Differences in long-term reliability are not accounted for here

Applications roadmap Using PV to enable other applications

Develop dual-purpose solar PV applications:

• Use solar energy for water-management (e.g. lift-irrigation)

• Use lift-irrigation systems as a form of energy storage

• Use floating PV systems to reduce water evaporation losses

• Promote growth of biofuel crops under solar panels

• Develop feeder segregation schemes linked with distributed rural PV to promote rural and agricultural development

Benefits:

• Allows developers to tap multiple financing schemes

• Meets India’s NDC commitments to the UN Climate Change Treaty

• Enables rural and farmer development

• Complements the National Water Mission

• Can benefits enabled by PV be used to lower total PV cost?

PV powered feeder segregation scheme

PV power for villages and separately for farmers: Rural electrification at lower cost

Growing biofuel plants under solar panels in Fukushima, Japan

Farmer can sell power as well as biofuel plants that require less sunlight

Floating PV At the cross-roads of the National Solar and National Water Missions

Floating PV can reduce evaporation of water, enable lift-irrigation, flood-control, desalination, etc.

500MW of floating PV along canal and on reservoirs for lift-irrigation

Technology Learning Curves

Learning rate:

% reduction in production cost after doubling of production capacity

Pre-requisites for fast learning:

• Public and private investment in R&D (costly but gives first-mover advantage)

• Diffusion and adoption of technology (cheaper but more efficient than R&D

investment)

• Cluster learning: Learning rates increase when more factories, suppliers, universities,

skilled workers, etc. are located close to each other

• Spillover effects: New materials and processes developed for the semiconductor

industry can be used in solar PV cells and thin-film modules

• Policies that promote the above

The PV “Experience Curve”

Improvements in PV Performance Ratio in Germany

Conclusion

• There is no point creating ambitious technology roadmaps for India. Better to develop or invest in technologies that address the challenges of PV in India

• In India we are too focused on lower system cost ($/W) even if it weakens system performance and lifetime. Need to develop ways for developers to monetize the long-term benefits of higher PR, higher durability

• PV can enable new applications – benefits of such dual-purpose PV applications could also be monetized to reduce the cost of PV

• Take the long view. Invest in high efficiency.