A vision for climate smart agriculture - Sonja Vermeulen
-
Upload
ccafs-cgiar-program-climate-change-agriculture-and-food-security -
Category
Education
-
view
2.728 -
download
0
description
Transcript of A vision for climate smart agriculture - Sonja Vermeulen
Climate Smart Agriculture Debate, Copenhagen, June 2012
A vision for climate smart
agriculture
Dr Sonja Vermeulen
Head of Research, CCAFS
The global
“trilemma”
of the
21st century…
100% (+/- 11%) more food by 2050
Tilman et al 2011
PNAS
with current
trajectories
of diets &
populations
Climate change reducing crop
yields already
Lobell et al 2011 Science
Vermeulen et al. 2012 Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)
Food systems
contributes 19-29% GHGs
Adaptation Ecological
footprint
Food
security
1. Is it a good idea to make agriculture
climate-smart, and can it be done?
2. Is “climate-smart agriculture” enough?
3. Can we achieve a shared vision for
climate-smart agriculture?
A vision for climate-smart
agriculture
Yes!
Not on its own
Yes!
Food
Security
Adaptation Ecological
footprint
Climate-Smart Agriculture
0
5
10
15
20
25
US Malawi
GHG CO2-eq tonne per capita
CSA will differ significantly…
Direct emissions
Indirect emissions
Impact of
climate change
on child
malnutrition
Costs of
adaptation
Food security options
1. Yes, food security depends critically on food production and productivity
2. But also depends critically on how production translates into farmers’ incomes
3. Food security is more too (landless and urban consumers’ incomes, rural-urban links, trade, price control policies etc etc…)
4. Not just agriculture can change, but whole cultures of food too (diets, women in formal employment, ethical concerns etc etc…)
Food security comes via
better agriculture, however…
Rights & entitlements
Safety nets
Political voice
Access to services
Economic opportunities
For food insecure people, need actions on
Food
availability
Adaptation options
Adaptive capacity
Technology
Knowledge &
skills Governance
&
institutions
Income & assets
Access
to
information
Infrastructure
Social capital
Key adaptation strategies Incremental adaptation to progressive
climate change
• Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable intensification)
• Raising the bar – technologies & policies for 2030s
Climate risk management
• Technologies (e.g. flood control)
• Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance)
• Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal forecasts)
Transformative adaptation
• Changing production systems
• Changing livelihood portfolios
• Climate information to farmers for decision
making
• National Met Service, WMO, ACMAD
• Forecasts provided for three‐days, ten‐days,
and seasonal (inc. crop health...)
• Major increases in yields for participating
farmers
• Lessons learning and scaling up across
Sahel?
Better risk management: e.g. Mali
farmer climate advisories
• The climate analogue
tool identifies the
range of places whose
current climates
correspond to the
future of a chosen
locality
• Choice of sites for
cross-site farmer visits
and participatory crop
and livestock trials
Farms of
the future
Relocation of growing areas &
processing facilities
Agricultural diversification, or shifts
Livelihood diversification, or shifts
Migration
To transformational adaptation?
Mitigation options
Soil & land management
key to agricultural mitigation
Smith et al. 2007 IPCC
Technical strategies 1. “Sustainable intensification” in
low productivity systems
2. Sustainable land management
(SLM) practices
3. Alternate wetting and drying
systems in irrigated rice
4. Improved nitrogen use
efficiency
5. Increased intensity of ruminant
production in Africa to reduce
GHG++ per unit of product
Tackling deforestation Indirect emissions
Food
Security
Adaptation Ecological
footprint
“Climate smart means landscape
and policy smart”
Institutional strategies
1. Improved forest governance &
land zoning
2. Land tenure security and
safeguarding local rights
3. Low carbon development
pathways for agriculture
4. “Shared but differentiated
responsibilities” in metrics &
access to finance
5. Services for smallholders
Are carbon markets a good
deal for farmers?
Claims: US$4.8 billion global market (assuming $18/tonne)
US$1.5 billion in Sub-Saharan Africa
(almost twice the overseas development assistance for
agriculture in the region)
But:
-Weak market: $1.03/t
-Social justice issues:
distract from agricultural
development & adaptation needs
Analysis of Wollenberg 2011
Bringing it all together
A multitude of trade-offs……..
• Across sub-sectors (e.g. residues to soils or
livestock?)
• Across spatial scales (e.g. more productive
agriculture can result in forest clearance)
• Different kinds of households (e.g. some risk
insurance exclude female-headed households)
• Short-term vs. long term benefits (e.g.
livestock risk insurance can promote land
degradation)
CSA, in summary:
• Takes into account: food security, adaptation and
ecological footprint
• Foremost about development itself and address
smallholder concerns
• Adds new actions on climate to sustainable devpt
• Crucial to deal with trade-offs
• Context matters: CSA differs widely
But is CSA enough?
(to solve the “trilemma”)
No! Also need actions on (a) fair access to food (b) reducing waste & over-consumption
Commission on Sust Ag & Climate Change 2012
www.ccaf.cgiar.org/commission
Towards a shared vision for
climate smart agriculture?
CSA is fully compatible with organic
agriculture, conservation agriculture
and agro-ecological approaches
“Climate-smart agriculture”
is up for grabs:
claim this space!
For those who don’t like it, is the problem
climate-smart agriculture, or is it:
• Carbon markets?
• Technical limits to mitigation? (e.g. the real
potential to sequester soil carbon)
• Ignoring non-C benefits such as biodiversity?
• Just the wording or the politics?
Rockström et al 2009; Bennett et al (in prep.)
Global
freshwater
use Change in land
use
Biodiversity
loss
Phosphorous
cycle
Nitrogen
cycle
Ocean
acidification
Climate
change
Safe
operating
space
Current
status
Role of
Agriculture
1. Continue with global
processes • Ensure that agriculture and
food security are central to UNFCCC processes & agreements
• Put agriculture at the heart of green growth and Rio+20
• Keep pressure on G20 to increase focus on food security and climate smart agriculture
Mexico 2012
Oxfam 2012
Thank you
www.ccafs.org
(sign up for bulletins)