AIACC Africa Regional Group AIACC Africa Regional Group ProjectsProjects

AIACC Climate Scenarios WorkshopAIACC Climate Scenarios Workshop

Tyndall CentreTyndall Centre

15-25 April 200215-25 April 2002

AF06 AF14 AF20 AF23 North Africa

Nigeria ,Mali Sudan West Africa Nigeria ,Niger Egypt, Tunisia,Morocco

Objective Rural,livelihood anddroughtBuildingcapacity andtechnologytransfer

Agriculturesystem,Environmentalmanagement,extreme eventBuildingcapacity andtechnologytransfer

Regionalclimatemodelling ,GCMassessment,Buildingcapacity andtechnologytransfer

Food security ,Crop modelling,Building capacityand technologytransfer

Food security,regional validation,water resources

Climate data Tx, Tm, PPT ,rainy days,length for therainy season,PET,

Tx, Tm, PPT ,rainy days,length for therainy season,PET, Radiation

Tx, Tm, PPT ,T , upper airdata, satellitedata , 4 GCMoutputs

Tx, Tm, PPT , rainydays, length for therainy season, PET,Radiation

Tx, Tm, PPT , rainydays, length for therainy season,,Radiation

Temporal andSpatial

DailyRegional level

DailyNational level

4 times DailydataRegional level

DailyRegional , farmlevel

DailyRegional level

Non-climatedata

Populationsgrowth rate,economygrowth rate,etc.

Populationsgrowth,livestock ,trades ,GDP,etc.

Non Populations growthrate, economygrowth rate,employment, etc.

Populations growth,livestock , trades,GDP, GDP percapita, access toservices.

GCM 4 GCMs,Annual,2020-2100T, PPT

4GCMdaily2020-2050T, PPT, cloud

At least 46 hrs interval,up to 21006 parameters

4 GCMDaily2020-2050T, PPT, cloud

4 GCMsMonthly2020-2050T, PPT

AF07 AF38 AF42 AF47 IndeanOcean

Lakevectoriabasin

SA, Zambia Malawi,Zambia,Mozambique,Zimbabwe

Botswana South andwest Africa

Seychelles,Comaros

Kenya,Uganda,Tanzania

Objective GeneratingCC scenariosfor sub-SaharanAfrica

V&Aassessment forthe Miomboregion

I, V&Aassessment inthe LimpopoBasin

Cost benefitanalysis ofV&A studies

V&Aassessment ofthe tourismsector forIsland States

I, V&Aassessment onwater andhealth

Climate data 3 GCMoutputs basedon A2, B2scenarios

Tx, Tm, PPT ,U2 discharge,sun shine hrs,Rh, lake level

Tx, Tm, PPT ,U2 discharge,sun shine hrs,PET, Rh, lakelevel

Tx, Tm, PPT ,U2 discharge,sun shine hrs,PET, Rh, lakelevel

Tx, Tm, PPT ,U2 PET, Rh,sst, SLR, waveintensity

Tx, Tm, PPT ,U2 discharge,sun shine hrs,PET, Rh, lakelevel

Temporal andSpatial

Daily at GCMscale

Daily,monthly,annualBasin scale

Daily,monthly,annualBasin scale

Depending ondataavailability,Regional

Daily,monthly,annual,Country level

Daily,monthly,annualBasin scale

Non-climatedata

Incorporatedin the SRESscenarios

Populationgrowth, GDPand othereconomicindicators

Populationgrowth, GDP,Agriculturalproduction

Economicfactors /indicators

Populationgrowth, GNP,energy use /intensity

Populationgrowth,Diseaseepidemiology(malaria),socio-economicindicators

ApproachApproach

Data collection

V&A models

Sensitivity analysis

Future scenarios

validation

GCM, downscaled data

Observational DataObservational Data

Climatic data:Climatic data: Climate variablesClimate variables Source of data: national met. Bureaus, alternatively CRU, Source of data: national met. Bureaus, alternatively CRU,

NCEP, NCARNCEP, NCAR Paying for data - cost of processingPaying for data - cost of processing Baseline data period selected: 1961-1990 (?)Baseline data period selected: 1961-1990 (?)

Non climatic data:Non climatic data: Diverse variables depending on project e.g. population Diverse variables depending on project e.g. population

growth, GDP, agricultural production, energy consumptiongrowth, GDP, agricultural production, energy consumption some socio-economic factors already inherent in GCMs some socio-economic factors already inherent in GCMs

(SRES)(SRES)

AF06 AF14 AF20 AF23 North Africa

Nigeria ,Mali Sudan West Africa Nigeria ,Niger Egypt, Tunisia,Morocco

Objective Rural,livelihood anddroughtBuildingcapacity andtechnologytransfer

Agriculturesystem,Environmentalmanagement,extreme eventBuildingcapacity andtechnologytransfer

Regionalclimatemodelling ,GCMassessment,Buildingcapacity andtechnologytransfer

Food security ,Crop modelling,Building capacityand technologytransfer

Food security,regional validation,water resources

Climate data Tx, Tm, PPT ,rainy days,length for therainy season,PET,

Tx, Tm, PPT ,rainy days,length for therainy season,PET, Radiation

Tx, Tm, PPT ,T , upper airdata, satellitedata , 4 GCMoutputs

Tx, Tm, PPT , rainydays, length for therainy season, PET,Radiation

Tx, Tm, PPT , rainydays, length for therainy season,,Radiation

Temporal andSpatial

DailyRegional level

DailyNational level

4 times DailydataRegional level

DailyRegional , farmlevel

DailyRegional level

Non-climatedata

Populationsgrowth rate,economygrowth rate,etc.

Populationsgrowth,livestock ,trades ,GDP,etc.

Non Populations growthrate, economygrowth rate,employment, etc.

Populations growth,livestock , trades,GDP, GDP percapita, access toservices.

GCM 4 GCMs,Annual,2020-2100T, PPT

4GCMdaily2020-2050T, PPT, cloud

At least 46 hrs interval,up to 21006 parameters

4 GCMDaily2020-2050T, PPT, cloud

4 GCMsMonthly2020-2050T, PPT

ToolsTools

Tools are project specific e.g EPIC (crop model), Tools are project specific e.g EPIC (crop model), DSSAT (crop model), FAO-Index model (crop DSSAT (crop model), FAO-Index model (crop model), CLIRUN (water balance model)model), CLIRUN (water balance model)

PRECIS, MAGICC/SCENGEN (to be decided)PRECIS, MAGICC/SCENGEN (to be decided)

Additional tools such as impact models may be Additional tools such as impact models may be developed specifically by projectsdeveloped specifically by projects

Cross-project collaborationCross-project collaboration

Data to be distributed/provided by AF07 and AF20Data to be distributed/provided by AF07 and AF20

Communication amongst projects has led to some Communication amongst projects has led to some collaborations where possiblecollaborations where possible

Common approaches in methods, the sharing of Common approaches in methods, the sharing of knowledge and expertiseknowledge and expertise

AF07AF06Indian Ocean

AF38

AF47

Lake Vic Basin

AF20

AF42 North Africa

AF23

AF14

Collaborative links

Obstacles to achieving scenariosObstacles to achieving scenarios

Data availability & access, data resolution, Data availability & access, data resolution, downscalingdownscaling

Uncertainty: of future emissions, changes in Uncertainty: of future emissions, changes in seasonal/interannual variability, GCM skill and seasonal/interannual variability, GCM skill and spread-scenario assumptionsspread-scenario assumptions

Socio-economic scenario obstacles: based on many Socio-economic scenario obstacles: based on many assumptions, political stability, high uncertaintiesassumptions, political stability, high uncertainties

Access to literatureAccess to literature

Actions to overcome obstaclesActions to overcome obstacles

Project - have agreed to use GCM data for now (until Project - have agreed to use GCM data for now (until RCM data available), and statistical downscalingRCM data available), and statistical downscaling

Regionally - hold small workshops - on topics that Regionally - hold small workshops - on topics that arise as the projects progress arise as the projects progress

AIACC - support MAGICC/SCENGEN, PRECIS AIACC - support MAGICC/SCENGEN, PRECIS models; speeding up process of getting output from models; speeding up process of getting output from GCM modelling centres, literature availabilityGCM modelling centres, literature availability

Desired Ongoing inputsDesired Ongoing inputs

Xianfu - updating on tools e.g. MAGICC/SCENGENXianfu - updating on tools e.g. MAGICC/SCENGEN

AIACC - ongoing training or online tutorials e.g. AIACC - ongoing training or online tutorials e.g. UNIX, GIS, crop modelling; AIACC should be in UNIX, GIS, crop modelling; AIACC should be in contact with ACMAD, AGRHYMET and DMCs for contact with ACMAD, AGRHYMET and DMCs for datadata

Regional mentors - availability and informing on new Regional mentors - availability and informing on new developments in the field.developments in the field.

RecommendationRecommendation

AIACC’s strategies in getting modellers together to AIACC’s strategies in getting modellers together to discuss projects and share ideas should be discuss projects and share ideas should be encouraged amongst other international funding encouraged amongst other international funding organisationsorganisations

Establish a data base bank for daily observed data Establish a data base bank for daily observed data for base period 1960-2000for base period 1960-2000

Need for GCM output results for four base scenarios, Need for GCM output results for four base scenarios, such as rainfall, temperature on a daily basissuch as rainfall, temperature on a daily basis

Regional training initiative in climate change I, V & A Regional training initiative in climate change I, V & A methodsmethods