Interface B – 2017 – A River Runs Through Math and Science http://www.meea.org/missouri-river.html

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A River Runs Through Math and Science Missouri River Background Historically the Missouri River experienced a spring rise around March caused by local snowmelt and breakup of ice jams on the river. A second rise around June was caused by snowmelt from the eastern Rocky Mountains and summer rains. The spring rise triggered spawning in native fish, which swam into flooded streams and wetlands to deposit eggs. The hatchlings lived, fed and grew in shallow and productive backwaters until carried back into the main channel by later floods. The channel itself varied along its length from swift gravel bottomed streams in the mountains to slow, meandering braided channels in the prairies.

In 1838, snags were removed to encourage commercial navigation. By 1902 there was a 5.5 foot deep navigation channel. In 1944 Congress adopted the Pick-Sloan plan to manage the river for irrigation, navigation, hydropower, flood control, water quality, water supply, fish and wildlife, and recreation. This plan resulted in the construction of five more dams (Fort Peck already had a dam) on the main stem of the Missouri. The 1945 Rivers and Harbors act established a navigation channel 9 feet deep and 300 feet wide all the way up to Sioux City Iowa. This is the situation that exists today. The dams and their associated reservoirs reduced the March and June rises, and increased the flow in the summer. Along with straightening and deepening the channel, this cut the river off from its wetlands.

“Together with the removal of snags, the loss of good habitat has caused an estimated loss of more than 80 percent of the fish in the river. Changes in habitat and increased water clarity due to the trapping of sediments in the main stem reservoirs has caused an increase in the numbers of species such as skipjack herring, gizzard shad, white bass, bluegill, white crappie and the emerald, river and red shiners. In Missouri, two large river species, the pallid sturgeon and the flathead chub, are in serious decline. Water Protection Program Fact Sheet - https://dnr.mo.gov/pubs/pub2018.htm

The flood control provided by upstream reservoirs and dams, and levees along the channelized river led to a 4300% increase in cultivated lands, and more recently in some areas, buildings in areas that used to be wetlands. The levees also limited the amount of sediment flowing into the river. Since this sediment used to recharge the Louisiana shoreline where the Mississippi flows into the Gulf, the shoreline is slowly but steadily retreating. At the same time the fertilizers applied to grain crops in the Missouri watershed, when not taken up by crop plants, end up flowing into the Gulf and causing a dead zone, where there is not enough oxygen in the water for living organisms. The Missouri River is a large and complex system whose historic patterns of flow and structure have been altered to meet multiple human needs. While management has provided significant benefits to humans, the costs to river species and connected ecosystem are not sustainable. The challenge is to figure out how to benefit people without harming the river.

Historical pattern of Missouri River flow. from: Jacobson & Galat, 2008. Design of a Naturalized Flow Regime – an example from the Lower Missouri River. USGS

Indian Cave Bend 1934 Indian Cave Bend 2003

Interface B – 2017 – A River Runs Through Math and Science http://www.meea.org/missouri-river.html

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Effects of Reservoirs on Flood Discharges in the Kansas and Missouri River Basins https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1993/circ1120-e/pdf/circ_1120-e.pdf In spring and summer 1993, thunderstorms released torrential rains somewhere over the North-Central states every day. Some rainfall totals were over 5 inches. Because the soil was already saturated, this lead to local flash floods in small streams and persistent flooding in the Missouri River Basin. When snowmelt from the Rockies was added in summer, the result was record flooding inundating much of the lower Missouri. Property losses alone exceeded $10 billion. Damaged highways and submerged roads disrupted transportation throughout the flooded region. The Mississippi and Missouri Rivers were closed to navigation before, during and after the flooding. The banks and channels of many rivers were severely eroded, and sediment was deposited over large areas of the basin’s flood plain. Levees failed, flooding cities and factories, as well as farmland, and raised concerns about industrial chemicals, sewage and agricultural chemicals being spread over the basin. Although the flooding was extensive, reservoirs upstream in the basin reduced flooding compared to historic floods. The computer program BENEFITS was used to estimate what the uncontrolled peak flow would have been in the absence of reservoirs. Results of modeling suggest that flood waters from the Kansas River and the Missouri would have over-topped the Kansas City levees if there were no reservoirs.

SCIENCE Earth and Space Sciences • interpret data on peak flow with

and without reservoirs to predict future floods

• how would increases in human population and consumption rates in Missouri affect the need for dams and levees to control the flow of water, what other ways could flood damage in populated areas be reduced

• what impact is climate change likely to have on the frequency and severity of floods

MATH Ratios & Proportional Relationships • (7th) compute ratios of observed flow to area and modeled flow to area and

compare them Number Sense and Operations • (7th) use a number line to determine the differences between observed and

modeled flow Expressions, Equations and Inequalities • (8th) use scientific notation to perform operations, and/or convert metric to

English units • (8th) graph the relationship between area and flows, choose line of best fit, derive

linear equations, compare them and make predictions Geometry and Measurement • (7th) make a scale drawing that shows the difference between the observed and

modeled flow Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability • (8th) construct a scatter plot of observed and modeled flow vs area

Table 1. Observed and Modeled Peak River Flow from Gage Stations on the Missouri River Observed flow is with reservoirs, modeled flow is based on historic flood data and measured river volume Gage Station Total Drainage Area (km2) Observed Flow (m3) Modeled Flow (m3) St. Joseph 1,088,572 9,486 13,054 Kansas City 1,256,662 15,319 20,189 Hermann 1,357,671 21,237 24,126

Interface B – 2017 – A River Runs Through Math and Science http://www.meea.org/missouri-river.html

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Sources and Transport of Nitrogen in the Mississippi River Basin https://co.water.usgs.gov/midconherb/html/st.louis.hypoxia.html Hypoxia is an environmental phenomenon where the concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO) in the water column decreases so much it can’t support life. Hypoxic areas, or "Dead Zones," have increased in duration and frequency across our planet's oceans since first being noted in the 1970s. The largest hypoxic zone currently affecting the United States, and the second largest worldwide, is the northern Gulf of Mexico by the Mississippi River outflow. The Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers are the primary river sources of fresh water and nutrients for the Gulf of Mexico. Their combined annual mean streamflow (21,800 cubic meters per second) represents about 80% of the estimated freshwater discharge to the Gulf. They also account for an estimated 90% of total nitrogen load and 87% of the total phosphorus load discharged annually to the Gulf. The reduction in DO occurs each year during late spring and summer following high inflows of fresh water and nutrients to

the Gulf. From1985-1992, the hypoxia zone (DO less than 2 parts per million) averaged about 10,000 square kilometers. After the 1993 flood, the hypoxia zone covered nearly 17,000 square kilometers. In 1994, 1995, and 1996 the hypoxia zone was about 18,000 square kilometers. The increased use of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers in the entire Mississippi basin is the most likely cause of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Fertilizer use has increased significantly over the past 25 years and has similar patterns to increasing nitrate concentrations in the Mississippi River. However, there are other sources of nitrogen in the basin including animal manure, legumes (soybeans and alfalfa), domestic effluents, and atmospheric deposition and soil nitrogen.

SCIENCE Physical Sciences • how are the chemical formulas of N the

same and different? • what are the chemical reactions in plants

that require N? • how are chemical fertilizers manufactured

(Haber-Bosch process)? Life Sciences • describe how is N used by living

organisms, include chlorophyll • develop a model to describe the cycling of

N among living and non-living parts of an ecosystem

• evaluate benefits and limitations of differing design solutions for limiting N in the Gulf of Mexico, would it be different for different basins

Earth and Space Sciences • how does human activity change the

distribution of N in the ecosystem, what are the different human activities in each basin that contribute to changing the distribution of N

MATH Ratios & Proportional Relationships • (7th) compute the total volume of water leaving the Missouri basin

(m3/s * 60 * 60 * 24 *365) and then the unit rate for any form of N • (7th) find the ratio of any 2 forms of N across all 3 basins Number Sense and Operations • (7th) plot forms of N for the Missouri basin on a number line Expressions, Equations and Inequalities • (8th) convert values in the table to scientific notation and perform

computations • (7th) write a linear equation for the form of N across all three

basins • (8th) graph proportional relationships, interpret unit rate as slope,

compare different proportional relationships • (8th) apply concepts of slope and y-intercept to graphs, equations

and proportional relationships • (8th) solve linear equations in one variable Geometry and Measurement • (7th) make a scale drawing representing the amount of the top

three forms of N contributed by each watershed Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability • (7th) use data from multiple samples to draw inferences about a

population and investigate variability in estimates of the characteristic of interest

• (8th) make a scatter plot of a type of N and the area of the basin; find the linear equation for the line of best fit; repeat using the flow of the Missouri basin

See Hypoxia animation - http://www.gulfhypoxia.net/Overview/hypoxia_flash.asp

Interface B – 2017 – A River Runs Through Math and Science http://www.meea.org/missouri-river.html

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• (8th) generate and use a trend line for the type of N and area or flow of the Missouri, find the line of best fit

• (8th) use relative frequencies calculated for forms of N or basin to describe possible associations

• (7th) compare measures of center, frequency, and variability from 2 different forms of N across all three basins

Functions • (8th) determine if the relation between a basin’s flow and the

amount of a form of N is a function, if so, graph the function, find the line of best fit and use the linear equation to make a prediction

Table 1. Sources of Nitrogen in the Mississippi and Atchafalaya* watershed by inputs in metric tons

source:

Ohio Basin 490,600 km2

7,960 m3/s

Missouri Basin 1,300,000 km2

1,727 m3/s

Mississippi above MO 489,507 km2 3,539 m3/s

All of Mississippi Basin

commercial fertilizer - all forms of N 1,058,200 1,648,900 1,898,800 5,873,800 • commercial fertilizer as anydrous ammoninum 336,700 871,800 901,000 2,518,700 • commercial fertilizer as urea 156,800 251,900 271,400 970,700 • commercial fertilizer as nitrogen solutions 256,000 305,100 361,100 1,142,300 • commercial fertilizer as miscellaneous forms of N 256,800 181,200 329,000 974,000 • commercial fertilizer as ammonium nitrate 51,900 74,900 36,200 268,100 manure 547,600 1,173,300 914,100 3,451,300 legumes (soybeans and alfalfa) 169,500 324,700 375,500 1,031,900 atmospheric wet deposition of nitrate as N 130,000 130,200 107,700 512,300 human domestic waste 222,900 83,300 188,600 627,800 municipal point source 73,100 39,800 96,600 264,000 industrial point source 52,100 2,840 12,600 105,800 oxidized soil N ? ? ? ? Total, all sources 2,180,300 3,399,240 3,497,260 11,602,900

* The Atchafalaya is a 137 mile long distributary west of the Mississippi river that branches off at Simmesport LA. It carries the water from the Red River and about 30% of the flow of the Mississippi into the Gulf. It serves as a significant industrial shipping channel for the state of Louisiana.

Interface B – 2017 – A River Runs Through Math and Science http://www.meea.org/missouri-river.html

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Larval Fish Use of Lower Missouri River Scour Basins in Relation to Connectivity https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Gregory_Whitledge/publication/268181234_Larval_Fish_Use_of_Lower_Missouri_River_Scour_Basins_in_Relation_to_Connectivity/links/546ba9f60cf2397f7831c61f.pdf Many fishes in large, low-gradient rivers like the Missouri use floodplain water bodies (sloughs, side channels, backwaters) for reproduction or early development. These slow, shallow habitats provide conditions of temperature, turbidity and substrate, as well as access to food, that are critical for larval fish. But they have to be connected to the river at least part of the time so adults can spawn and larval fish can travel back to the main channel. Therefore they depend on a predictable “flood pulse” to connect these habitats with the main river channel during their spawning period. Anthropogenic changes in the lower Missouri River from Sioux City, Iowa to its mouth near St. Louis, Missouri, have disrupted the natural dynamics of this river-floodplain linkage. The formerly shallow, braided channel of the Missouri has been converted to a single, deep, swift navigation channel resulting in a 50% reduction in river-floodplain water surface area and a 39% decrease in area of floodplain wetlands. The historic flood pulses of April and June are regulated by upstream dams to provide a constant flow from April to the fall, and high agricultural levees confine the river to a width of 183-335 m. The historic flood of 1993 connected the lower Missouri to its ancestral floodplain for the first time in over 20 years. Floods overtopped and breached over 500 flood-control levees between Kanas City and St. Louis. The water pressure and flow through levee breaks caused intense erosion that produced over 450 new, steep-sided water bodies or “scour basins”. This study sampled larval fish populations in three categories of scour basins – continuously connected, periodically connected and isolated, to see how they functioned as replacements for ancestral spawning habitat for Missouri river fish. SCIENCE (Middle School) Life Sciences • describe how environmental

conditions affect reproduction and early in a species of fish

• construct an explanation that predicts the patterns of interactions among and between the biotic and abiotic factors in a given ecosystem

• construct an argument supported by empirical evidence that explains how differences among the scours affects reproduction of a species of fish

• construct an explanation based on evidence that describes how variation can affect probability of surviving and reproducing in a specific environment (use probability statements and proportional reasoning on species’ variation)

Earth and Space Sciences • construct an explanation for how

geoscience processes have changed the Earth’s surface.

• design a method for monitoring and minimizing human impact on the environment

• treating the scours as “natural experiments” determine which “design” might be most effective habitat for promoting reproduction in native fish species

MATH Ratios & Proportional Relationships • (7th) find the proportion of the larva for all the species of fish in a scour Number Sense and Operations • (7th) plot numbers of each species of fish in a scour on a number line • (8th) convert decimals to fractions and vice versa for a species of fish

Expressions, Equations and Inequalities • (7th) write a linear equation relating the number of larval fish species in a

scour to the scour’s distance from the river • (8th) graph the duration of exchange as distance from the river increases,

estimate the slope of the line and interpret it as a rate of change • (8th) graph the number fish species as distance from the river increases,

estimate the slope of the line and interpret is as a rate of change Geometry and Measurement • (7th) make a scale drawing of scours that shows their river km, distance

from the river, and area, and show the measurements in metric and English units using appropriate units and number of significant digits

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability • (8th) make a scatter plot of any scour characteristic (area, depth,

distance, etc.) and at least one fish species; fit a trend line and then find the linear equation for the line of best fit

• (8th) use the linear equation to predict the behavior of the dependent variable as the independent variable changes

• (8th) calculate the relative frequencies of any of the variables in the data set to see if there is a possible association

• (7th) compare measures of center, frequency, and variability for any variable for all three sets of scours

• (7th) for a fish species, determine the probability of catching that species in each kind of scour (C, P, I)

• (7th) for two fish species, determine the probability of catching both species in each kind of scour

Functions • (8th) for any pair of variables in the data set, determine if it is a function • (8th) graph the relationship between any pair of variables in the data set • (8th) determine the parameters of the relationship between any pair of

variables in the data set • (8th) describe the functional relationship between any pair of variables in

the data set

Interface B – 2017 – A River Runs Through Math and Science http://www.meea.org/missouri-river.html

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Table 1. Characteristics of the scours sampled for this study, and number of larval fish and fish density

Site Area (ha)

Mean Depth (m)

Distance (m) Gauge

Mean Exchange

Duration (d)

Temp (°C) diff

Secchi depth (cm) diff

Number of larval fish taxa

Larval fish density

C345 6.3 2.8 0 Glasgow 5 132 0.13 3.4 17 94.5 C351 2.3 1 0 Glasgow 3.8 132 0.40 2.6 18 45.1 C387 26.2 1.7 0 Glasgow 3.6 132 0.67 1.8 18 83.8 P257 3.7 1.7 10 Boonville 1.8 54 1.24 10.1 14 65.7 P303 6 3.4 230 Boonville 1.7 44 1.99 14.7 15 61.4 P397 3.9 2.1 0 Glasgow 2.6 121 1.98 7.9 14 109.1 P421 3.8 5.5 200 Waverly 0.4 27 1.30 24.0 11 258.8 I305 2.2 4.8 600 Boonville 0 0 1.52 41.4 5 94.3 I330 18.7 4.4 3260 Boonville 0 0 1.46 31.1 6 169.9 I442 3.4 5.2 2700 Waverly 0 0 1.95 36.0 5 179 I513 3.5 3.8 500 Waverly 0 0 0.98 49.3 7 92.3 I529 10.6 1.3 500 Waverly 0 0 1.69 44.4 6 96.1

• Site - C-continuous connection, P-periodic connection, I-isolated; numbers are km upstream from confluence of Missouri

and Mississippi Rivers • Mean exchange - mean level of scour connection over all dates, ranging from 0 (no connection) to 7 (fully connected) • Duration - days scour was connected to river • Temperature - difference between river and scour (positive temp means scour is warmer than river) • Secchi depth - difference between river and scour (positive Sd means scour is clearer than river) • Larval Fish Density – number of fish/100 cubic m over all sampling periods Table 2. The three most common larval fish species in each category (C, P, I) of scour basins

Dorosoma Lepomis Pomoxis Hiodon

Hypopthal-michthys

Cyprinu- scarpio

Aplodi-notus

Cteno pharyngo don idella

Hybogna-thus sp.

Site

Americangizzard shad

sunfish sp.

crappie sp. goldeye

Asian carp sp**

European /common carp*

freshwater drum grass carp*

silvery minnows

C345 32 3 3 10 434 39 101 94 171 c351 12 0 2 11 116 21 110 74 41 c387 45 3 2 23 346 19 37 186 33 P257 206 2 2 239 94 21 27 14 20 P303 305 3 3 64 1 17 13 3 0 P397 362 1 2 37 274 158 5 1 1 P421 1372 31 24 81 13 0 0 0 0 I305 535 13 165 0 1 0 4 0 0 I330 959 137 39 0 0 1 0 0 0 I442 1202 87 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 I513 162 150 128 0 1 0 0 0 0 I529 245 58 68 0 0 0 0 3 1

• Site - C-continuous connection, P-periodic connection, I-isolated; numbers are km upstream from confluence of Missouri

and Mississippi Rivers • Top row – scientific name of genus and/or species • Lower row – common name • * invasive non-native species (note, there is a sterile triploid grass carp used for vegetation control that is legal to stock)