A Primer in Theory Construction By Paul Davidson Reynolds.

A Primer in A Primer in Theory Theory

ConstructionConstructionBy By

Paul Davidson ReynoldsPaul Davidson Reynolds

Introduction Introduction For what should scientific knowledge by useful?For what should scientific knowledge by useful? Most people would want scientific knowledge to provide:Most people would want scientific knowledge to provide:1.1. Typologies – A set of concepts used to “organize and Typologies – A set of concepts used to “organize and

classify”classify”2.2. Prediction and Explanation – This involves the prediction of Prediction and Explanation – This involves the prediction of

future events and explanations of past eventsfuture events and explanations of past events3.3. A Sense of Understanding – This is provided when “causal A Sense of Understanding – This is provided when “causal

mechanisms that link changes in one or more concepts (the mechanisms that link changes in one or more concepts (the independent variables) with changes in other concepts (the independent variables) with changes in other concepts (the dependent variables) have been fully described”dependent variables) have been fully described”

4.4. Controlling Events – It is important to “make a distinction Controlling Events – It is important to “make a distinction between understanding how certain variable affect one between understanding how certain variable affect one another and being able to change the variables” another and being able to change the variables”

IntroductionIntroduction

What is a theory? What is a theory? Currently it is defined two schools of thought:Currently it is defined two schools of thought:

1.1. A theory is “a set of well-supported empirical A theory is “a set of well-supported empirical generalizations or laws”generalizations or laws”

2.2. A theory can also be defined “as an A theory can also be defined “as an interrelated set of definitions, axioms, or interrelated set of definitions, axioms, or propositions”propositions”

Theories are also thought to include abstract Theories are also thought to include abstract formulations, that are vague, prescriptive, or formulations, that are vague, prescriptive, or untested hypotheses or ideasuntested hypotheses or ideas

IntroductionIntroduction How does a concept or a statement How does a concept or a statement

become part of a scientific body of become part of a scientific body of knowledge?knowledge?

As overall knowledge increases the As overall knowledge increases the degree of acceptance is affected by:degree of acceptance is affected by:

1.1. Individual scientists becoming more Individual scientists becoming more confident “that the idea is useful for the confident “that the idea is useful for the goals of science”goals of science”

2.2. ““The number of scientists that consider The number of scientists that consider the ideas useful for the goals of science the ideas useful for the goals of science increases” increases”

IntroductionIntroduction What are the desirable characteristics of What are the desirable characteristics of

scientific knowledge?scientific knowledge?1.1. Abstractness – A concept being independent Abstractness – A concept being independent

of time and spaceof time and space2.2. Intersubjectivity – This means that there is Intersubjectivity – This means that there is

an “agreement about meaning among an “agreement about meaning among relevant scientists”relevant scientists”

3.3. Empirical relevance – This includes “the Empirical relevance – This includes “the possibility of comparing some aspect of a possibility of comparing some aspect of a scientific statement, a prediction or an scientific statement, a prediction or an explanation, with objective empirical explanation, with objective empirical research”research”

The IdeaThe Idea

Kuhn Paradigms have the following features:Kuhn Paradigms have the following features:

1.1. New conceptualization of the phenomenaNew conceptualization of the phenomena

2.2. Possibilities of a new research strategy or Possibilities of a new research strategy or methodological procedure for gathering methodological procedure for gathering empirical evidence to support the paradigmempirical evidence to support the paradigm

3.3. It tends to suggest new problems for the It tends to suggest new problems for the solutionsolution

4.4. Application of the new paradigm frequently Application of the new paradigm frequently explains phenomena that previous paradigms explains phenomena that previous paradigms were unable to explainwere unable to explain

The IdeaThe Idea Paradigms have the following features:Paradigms have the following features:1.1. The conceptualization represents a unique The conceptualization represents a unique

description of the phenomena, but a dramatic new description of the phenomena, but a dramatic new orientation or “world view” is absentorientation or “world view” is absent

2.2. Although new research strategies may by Although new research strategies may by suggested, dramatic new procedures or suggested, dramatic new procedures or methodologies are absentmethodologies are absent

3.3. The new conceptualization may suggest new The new conceptualization may suggest new research questionsresearch questions

4.4. The new conceptualizations may explain events The new conceptualizations may explain events previously unexplainedpreviously unexplained

The Kuhn Paradigm represents a significant The Kuhn Paradigm represents a significant change from the past (this leads to a scientific change from the past (this leads to a scientific revolution), whereas a paradigm leads to a shift in revolution), whereas a paradigm leads to a shift in orientation, but less than a scientific revolutionorientation, but less than a scientific revolution

Paradigm VariationsParadigm Variations

What happens when there are a “large What happens when there are a “large number of details or refinements that number of details or refinements that are ambiguous or unspecified”?are ambiguous or unspecified”?

These variations are “considered to These variations are “considered to offer refinement of details or variations offer refinement of details or variations in emphasis, not changes in the basic in emphasis, not changes in the basic conceptualization of phenomena conceptualization of phenomena associated with the paradigm”associated with the paradigm”

ConceptsConcepts What defines various concepts?What defines various concepts? Primitive terms – they are often related Primitive terms – they are often related

directly to shared impressions, therefore, directly to shared impressions, therefore, anyone with the proper training should be anyone with the proper training should be able to share these special experiences and able to share these special experiences and the meaning of the primitive termsthe meaning of the primitive terms

Dictionary definitions – these are attempts to Dictionary definitions – these are attempts to describe the concepts indicated by the terms describe the concepts indicated by the terms of the natural languageof the natural language

Real definitions – these describe the real Real definitions – these describe the real essence or real characteristics of an object of essence or real characteristics of an object of phenomenonphenomenon

ConceptsConcepts

Abstract versus concrete conceptsAbstract versus concrete concepts Abstract concepts are those Abstract concepts are those

concepts that are completely concepts that are completely independent of a specific time or independent of a specific time or placeplace

A concrete concept is “related to a A concrete concept is “related to a particular spatial or temporal particular spatial or temporal setting”setting”

ConceptsConcepts

A scientific statements should have relevance A scientific statements should have relevance – special types of definitions have been – special types of definitions have been invented to provide instructions for invented to provide instructions for determining the existence of a theoretical determining the existence of a theoretical concept in a concrete setting – these are concept in a concrete setting – these are known as operational definitionsknown as operational definitions

Operations definitions describe a set of Operations definitions describe a set of procedures and activities that an observer procedures and activities that an observer should perform in order to receive sensory should perform in order to receive sensory impressions that indicate the existence, or impressions that indicate the existence, or degree of existence, of a theoretical conceptdegree of existence, of a theoretical concept

ConceptsConcepts How are concepts quantified?How are concepts quantified? Different types of quantification are generally Different types of quantification are generally

referred to as “levels of measurement” – these referred to as “levels of measurement” – these consist of:consist of:

1.1. The nominal level – when the state of a concept that The nominal level – when the state of a concept that can be labeled in any fashioncan be labeled in any fashion

2.2. The ordinal level – an ordinal level of quantification The ordinal level – an ordinal level of quantification applies to concepts that vary in such a way that applies to concepts that vary in such a way that different states of the concept can be rank ordered different states of the concept can be rank ordered with respect to some characteristicwith respect to some characteristic

3.3. The interval level – the states of the concept are not The interval level – the states of the concept are not only rank ordered, but also the difference between only rank ordered, but also the difference between the states has meaningthe states has meaning

4.4. The ratio level – this is an operation that cannot be The ratio level – this is an operation that cannot be carried out with numbers that indicate location on carried out with numbers that indicate location on an interval scale an interval scale

ConceptsConcepts

Quantification does not necessarily Quantification does not necessarily indicate scientific knowledgeindicate scientific knowledge

““In other words, even an In other words, even an approximate answer to an important approximate answer to an important question is more useful than a question is more useful than a precise, elegant, and quantified precise, elegant, and quantified answer to a trivial question”answer to a trivial question”

StatementsStatements Statements can be classified into two Statements can be classified into two

groups:groups:1.1. Existence statements include – a Existence statements include – a

concept, identified by a term, is applied concept, identified by a term, is applied to an object or phenomenon, and they to an object or phenomenon, and they can be “right or wrong”can be “right or wrong”

2.2. Relational statements – describe the Relational statements – describe the relationship between two concepts (this relationship between two concepts (this includes causal, association, and includes causal, association, and deterministic or probabilistic deterministic or probabilistic relationships)relationships)

StatementsStatements Theoretical Statements are characterized by Theoretical Statements are characterized by

five different labels five different labels (1)(1) Laws – or “absolute truths”Laws – or “absolute truths”(2)(2) Axioms – a basic set of statements, each Axioms – a basic set of statements, each

independent of the othersindependent of the others(3)(3) Propositions – these are statements derived Propositions – these are statements derived

from axioms from axioms (4)(4) Hypotheses – these refer to a statement Hypotheses – these refer to a statement

selected for comparison against data selected for comparison against data collected in a concrete situationcollected in a concrete situation

(5)(5) empirical generalizations – a summarization empirical generalizations – a summarization of patterns in empirical researchof patterns in empirical research

Forms of TheoriesForms of Theories There are three difference conceptions of how sets of There are three difference conceptions of how sets of

statements should be organized to constitute a “theory”:statements should be organized to constitute a “theory”:1.1. Set of Laws – This approach accepts statements that can Set of Laws – This approach accepts statements that can

be considered laws as part of scientific knowledge – be considered laws as part of scientific knowledge – furthermore, “all laws are directly supported by furthermore, “all laws are directly supported by empirical research”empirical research”

2.2. The Axiomatic Form – This includes an interrelated set of The Axiomatic Form – This includes an interrelated set of definitions and statements with several important definitions and statements with several important features:features:- a set of definitions (primitive, derived, and operational)- a set of definitions (primitive, derived, and operational)- a set of existence statements that describe the - a set of existence statements that describe the situations in which the theory can be appliedsituations in which the theory can be applied- a set of relational statements divided into two groups - a set of relational statements divided into two groups (1) axioms, and (2) propositions(1) axioms, and (2) propositions- a logical system - a logical system

Forms of Theories Forms of Theories (cont’d) (cont’d)

3.3. The Causal Process Form – This is an interrelated The Causal Process Form – This is an interrelated set of definitions and statements that include the set of definitions and statements that include the following features:following features:- a set of definitions including theoretical concepts, - a set of definitions including theoretical concepts, primitive and derived terms, and operational primitive and derived terms, and operational definitionsdefinitions- a set of existence statements that describe those - a set of existence statements that describe those situations in which one or more of the causal situations in which one or more of the causal processes are expected to occurprocesses are expected to occur- a set of causal statements, with either - a set of causal statements, with either deterministic or probabilistic relations, that describe deterministic or probabilistic relations, that describe one or more causal processes or causal mechanisms one or more causal processes or causal mechanisms that identify the effect of one or more independent that identify the effect of one or more independent variables on one or more dependent variablesvariables on one or more dependent variables

Forms of TheoriesForms of Theories Evaluation of the Three Forms of Theory – Evaluation of the Three Forms of Theory –

The author felt there was a strong enough The author felt there was a strong enough relationship to group the axiomatic and relationship to group the axiomatic and causal forms – creating the “axiomatic-causal forms – creating the “axiomatic-causal” processcausal” process

The “axiomatic-causal” process is preferred The “axiomatic-causal” process is preferred over the set of laws model due to several over the set of laws model due to several reasons:reasons:

1.1. It provides a sense of understandingIt provides a sense of understanding2.2. It makes it easier to describe new paradigmsIt makes it easier to describe new paradigms3.3. It may allow for more efficient researchIt may allow for more efficient research4.4. It suggest a more concise and interrelated It suggest a more concise and interrelated

organization of scientific knowledgeorganization of scientific knowledge

Forms of TheoriesForms of Theories Developmental simulations or models are Developmental simulations or models are

referred to as “representational models” – referred to as “representational models” – this is often considered “theory building”this is often considered “theory building”

Simulations are often used for the Simulations are often used for the solution of practical problemssolution of practical problems

The differences between simulation The differences between simulation processes and actual processes is not processes and actual processes is not always clear, and it may be that some always clear, and it may be that some processes initially intended as simulation processes initially intended as simulation processes may later be considered as processes may later be considered as causal processes, or vice versacausal processes, or vice versa

Testing TheoriesTesting Theories

Abstract Statements and Concrete Abstract Statements and Concrete Research – Scientific statements are Research – Scientific statements are abstract and can be difficult to support abstract and can be difficult to support with concrete researchwith concrete research

To resolve this researchers must conduct To resolve this researchers must conduct empirical research so that the settings empirical research so that the settings can affect the confidence a scientist has can affect the confidence a scientist has in the usefulness of an abstract in the usefulness of an abstract statement for the purposes of statement for the purposes of explanation and predictionexplanation and prediction


Statistical decision procedures are Statistical decision procedures are often used to prove whether or not a often used to prove whether or not a statement is true or false – statistics statement is true or false – statistics are frequently misused by are frequently misused by researchers who try to apply them researchers who try to apply them directly to abstract statements to directly to abstract statements to prove whether the statement is true prove whether the statement is true or falseor false

Testing TheoriesTesting Theories Statistics are often applied to two different Statistics are often applied to two different

activities:activities:1.1. Descriptive statistical inference – this is used to Descriptive statistical inference – this is used to

describe some characteristic of an event or describe some characteristic of an event or phenomenonphenomenon

2.2. Inferential statistics – this procedure is used to help Inferential statistics – this procedure is used to help individuals decide which of several descriptions (of individuals decide which of several descriptions (of an event or phenomenon) is the “true” description – an event or phenomenon) is the “true” description – this is also referred to as a “statistical decision” or this is also referred to as a “statistical decision” or making decisions about which description to acceptmaking decisions about which description to accept

It is important to note that the best research It is important to note that the best research design is the one that does not require design is the one that does not require statistical analysis – this is unlike due to the statistical analysis – this is unlike due to the economies gained by using statistical analyses economies gained by using statistical analyses and the need to study some processes in and the need to study some processes in complex natural settingscomplex natural settings

Testing TheoriesTesting Theories Should the hypothesis be presented before Should the hypothesis be presented before

the data are examined?the data are examined? Although it is always a pleasant surprise for a Although it is always a pleasant surprise for a

hypothesis derived from a theory to hypothesis derived from a theory to accurately predict an unexpected result, there accurately predict an unexpected result, there is no reason why research data that tests a is no reason why research data that tests a theory must be collected after a theory is theory must be collected after a theory is inventedinvented

It is clear that if a research project is It is clear that if a research project is designed to test a person’s intuitive designed to test a person’s intuitive judgments about a particular situation, then judgments about a particular situation, then these “guesses” should be made more open these “guesses” should be made more open and explicit before the data are collected, or and explicit before the data are collected, or before the “guesser” knows the “answer”before the “guesser” knows the “answer”

Testing TheoriesTesting Theories Comparing theories – there is a popular Comparing theories – there is a popular

conception that much of scientific activity is conception that much of scientific activity is devoted to choosing between theories – this devoted to choosing between theories – this conception is in error in several respects:conception is in error in several respects:

1.1. Scientific activity is more usefully conceived Scientific activity is more usefully conceived as the development of more accurate as the development of more accurate descriptions of phenomenadescriptions of phenomena

2.2. No single empirical study will provide No single empirical study will provide enough evidence to cause a theory to be enough evidence to cause a theory to be completely rejectedcompletely rejected

3.3. It may be more productive to ask how much It may be more productive to ask how much effect a particular process has under certain effect a particular process has under certain conditions, rather than the process or theory conditions, rather than the process or theory that is operatingthat is operating


Choosing between theories is not a Choosing between theories is not a frequent activity in social science, frequent activity in social science, but when it occurs, it is one of the but when it occurs, it is one of the most importantmost important

Strategies for Developing a Strategies for Developing a Scientific Body of Scientific Body of

KnowledgeKnowledge There are two strategies:There are two strategies:1.1. Research-Then-Theory – this includes:Research-Then-Theory – this includes:

- selecting a phenomenon and listing its’ - selecting a phenomenon and listing its’ characteristicscharacteristics- Measuring the characteristics of the - Measuring the characteristics of the phenomenon in a variety of situationsphenomenon in a variety of situations- Analyzing the data carefully to determine - Analyzing the data carefully to determine if there are any systematic patters among if there are any systematic patters among the data worthy of further attentionthe data worthy of further attention- Formulating significant patters as - Formulating significant patters as theoretical statements constituting the theoretical statements constituting the law of naturelaw of nature


Knowledge (cont’d)Knowledge (cont’d)2.2. Theory-Then-Research – this includes:Theory-Then-Research – this includes:

- developing an explicit theory in an axiomatic or - developing an explicit theory in an axiomatic or process description formprocess description form- selecting a statement generated by the theory for - selecting a statement generated by the theory for comparison with the results of empirical researchcomparison with the results of empirical research- designing a research project to test the chose - designing a research project to test the chose statements correspondence with empirical researchstatements correspondence with empirical research- if the statement derived from the theory does not - if the statement derived from the theory does not correspond with the research results, make correspond with the research results, make appropriate changes in the theory or the research appropriate changes in the theory or the research design and continue with the researchdesign and continue with the research- if the statement from the theory corresponds with - if the statement from the theory corresponds with the results of the research, select further the results of the research, select further statements for testing, or attempt to determine the statements for testing, or attempt to determine the limitations of the theorylimitations of the theory


KnowledgeKnowledge Comparison of the strategies – Comparison of the strategies –

Research-Then-Theory approach Research-Then-Theory approach reflects the assumption that there are reflects the assumption that there are real patters in nature an that the real patters in nature an that the tasks of scientists is to discover these tasks of scientists is to discover these patters. The Theory-Then-Research patters. The Theory-Then-Research approach reflects the assumption that approach reflects the assumption that scientists impose their descriptions scientists impose their descriptions on any phenomenon that is studied. on any phenomenon that is studied.


KnowledgeKnowledge What are the characteristics of a new What are the characteristics of a new

idea? There seem to be two things that idea? There seem to be two things that are involved:are involved:

1.1. The invention of a new theoretical The invention of a new theoretical concept that can be used as part of a concept that can be used as part of a theory, either hypothetical or one that theory, either hypothetical or one that has empirical referentshas empirical referents

2.2. A suggestion of new ways of organizing A suggestion of new ways of organizing the causal relationships among “old” or the causal relationships among “old” or “old” and “new” theoretical concepts“old” and “new” theoretical concepts


KnowledgeKnowledge The Composite Approach – This combines the The Composite Approach – This combines the

Research-Then-Theory, and Theory-Then-Research Research-Then-Theory, and Theory-Then-Research to provide a more efficient overall procedure and to provide a more efficient overall procedure and more accurate representation of the process that more accurate representation of the process that actually occurs in building scientific knowledge – it actually occurs in building scientific knowledge – it divides activity into three stages:divides activity into three stages:

1.1. Exploratory – Research is designed to allow an Exploratory – Research is designed to allow an investigator to just look around with respect to investigator to just look around with respect to some phenomenonsome phenomenon

2.2. Descriptive – The goal at this stage is to develop Descriptive – The goal at this stage is to develop careful descriptions of patterns that were suspected careful descriptions of patterns that were suspected in exploratory researchin exploratory research

3.3. Explanatory – The goal at this stage is to develop Explanatory – The goal at this stage is to develop explicit theory that can be used to explain the explicit theory that can be used to explain the empirical generalizations that evolve from the empirical generalizations that evolve from the second stagesecond stage


KnowledgeKnowledge Research Methods – There are three primary types Research Methods – There are three primary types

of research activity currently associated with social of research activity currently associated with social science:science:

1.1. Individual observation – the researcher directly Individual observation – the researcher directly observes a certain social phenomenon in a natural observes a certain social phenomenon in a natural setting and attempts to provide an accurate and setting and attempts to provide an accurate and unbiased record of their observationsunbiased record of their observations

2.2. Survey – a collection of people or social systems is Survey – a collection of people or social systems is measured with respect to certain individual measured with respect to certain individual characteristicscharacteristics

3.3. Experimental – The phenomenon is reproduced in a Experimental – The phenomenon is reproduced in a controlled situation, and then various measurements controlled situation, and then various measurements are made of the phenomenon, often measurements are made of the phenomenon, often measurements that could not be collected in natural settings. that could not be collected in natural settings.

ConclusionConclusion It is clear that the goal of developing a scientific body It is clear that the goal of developing a scientific body

of knowledge related to social and human of knowledge related to social and human phenomenon is complicated by a number of problems phenomenon is complicated by a number of problems inherent in the phenomena and that social scientists inherent in the phenomena and that social scientists are not yet “ideal” scientists. This is due to:are not yet “ideal” scientists. This is due to:

1.1. The large number of subtle and interrelated The large number of subtle and interrelated processesprocesses

2.2. The problems of achieving intersubjective The problems of achieving intersubjective measurement of abstract objectsmeasurement of abstract objects

3.3. The change of social and individual phenomena The change of social and individual phenomena under observationunder observation

4.4. The difficulty of achieving complete objectivity in The difficulty of achieving complete objectivity in dealing with social phenomenadealing with social phenomena

5.5. Ethical considerations that prevent the use of certain Ethical considerations that prevent the use of certain types of research procedures or require more types of research procedures or require more expensive alternativesexpensive alternatives

A Primer in Theory Construction By Paul Davidson Reynolds.

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Transcript of A Primer in Theory Construction By Paul Davidson Reynolds.