A JAPAN THAT CAN SAY MAYBE:A JAPAN THAT CAN SAY MAYBE:The Foreign Policy of the DPJThe Foreign Policy of the DPJ

21th July, 2009Woodrow Wilson International Center

Daniel Sneider, Associate Director for Research

AgendaAgenda

1. The Foreign Policy debate in Japan2. The DPJ Internal Composition3. The DPJ leadership and its views4. DPJ Position on Key Issues 5. Conclusion: A Japan that can say

Maybe

Evolution of Yoshida Doctrine

• End of the Cold War• First Gulf War - Japan’s

failure to act• First North Korean

nuclear crisis 1993-94• Rise of China• North Korean missile

test 1998• Second North Korean

nuclear crisis• 9/11 and Iraq War• US Global redeployment

• Minesweepers to Gulf• PKO law (1992)• Defense of areas

surrounding Japan• Indian Ocean dispatch• Iraq deployment• Missile Defense• Joint air defense

command• JDA to Ministry

Towards a new consensus

• The “dual hedge” -- expand military capability, use of force, global security role AND improve relations with neighbors by playing more active role in Asian regionalism, environmental protection, and other use of soft power.

• Maintain close alliance with US but balance more with Asian tilt

The DPJ and foreign policy

• The DPJ - a coherent foreign policy?

• What do DPJ leaders think about foreign policy?

• Key issues for the DPJ

• DPJ’s new “Goldlilocks consensus”

DPJ DelegationHouse of Representatives, 2009

The Left

The Right

The Center

The DPJ Leadership

Yukio Hatoyama, DPJ PresidentKatsuya Okada, DPJ Secretary GeneralIchiro Ozawa, DPJ Acting PresidentNaoto Kan, DPJ Acting President

• Grandson of former PM Ichiro Hatoyama

• Left LDP in 1993 to form Sakigake

• Member Hosokawa cabinet 1993

• Co-leader of DPJ from formation in 1996, party head from 1999-2002

• Elected from his father’s constituency in Hokkaido in 1986

Yukio Hatoyama

Hatoyama on use of force

• Supported limited use of collective defense right to defend ally, friendly forces in field during UN mission but rejected dispatch for missions not directly related to Japan’s security without UN authorization

“In approving Japan’s right of collective defense, there is a concern that Japan will be entangled in one-sided use of force by the U.S. in a global range…However, the right of collective defense is Japan’s right under international law, and does not mean Japan is automatically obliged to join missions with its allies.” 2008

Katsuya Okada

• Elected from Mie in 1988, former Takeshita faction, LDP

• Joined Ozawa and Hata to form Shinseito in 1993

• President of DPJ in 2004-2005

• Son of founder of retail giant AEON group

Okada on foreign policy

• Advocate of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation as key element of Japan FP

• Calls for US and other nuclear powers to renounce first use, and no use against non-nuclear states, creation of nuclear-free zone in NEA

• “Priority should be given to Asia first, and then to the Japan-U.S. alliance.”

• “Japan should pursue affluence in an East Asian community, centering on the Asian region.”

• “Decades have passed since the SF treaty was signed, and the postwar period has already ended. It is now necessary to discuss whether the concentration of U.S. bases on Okinawa is normal.” Sekai, July, 2009

The DPJ Left

Yoshita Sengoku

Elected from Tokushima for 5 terms

Former Socialist Party leader

Former head of Policy Affairs for DPJ

Critic of Ozawa

Sengoku on foreign policy

• Need to create a system of “co-governance” with US, China, Japan and Korea, to deal with energy, environment, health, other issues

• Japan should focus on Asia, not on global role

• Supports PKO deployments but not military forces in NATO style in Afghanistan (Indian Ocean mission OK)

• Advocates creation of PKO training center in Asia, with support of Korea and China

The DPJ Right

Seiji MaeharaElected from Kyoto

for 5 termsFormer LDP, left with

Hosokawa to form Japan New Party in 1993

DPJ President 2005-2006

Defense expert, possible Defense Minister

Maehara on foreign policy

• Strong supporter of US-Japan alliance

• Opposed extension of MSDF refueling deployment as “un-transparent” but supports non-military role in Af

• Calls for new blueprint to replace Futenma deal

• Supports exercise of right of collective self-defense clearly defined by law

“We must not turn China into an enemy. Of course we must not leave ourselves unprotected in the face of China’s increasing military power and to this end we need to firmly maintain the Japan-US alliance. However, regarding China as an enemy and creating an environment that instigates a military buildup would not be to the advantage of anyone in this region.”

2005 speech to AEI conference

The Kuromaku -- Ichiro Ozawa• Elected from Iwate in

1969 (father’s seat)• Former Home

Minister, Deputy chief cab sec, Sec Gen of LDP

• Formed Shinseito in 1993, Shinshinto

• Formed Jiyuto in 1998

• Merged with DPJ 2003

• DPJ President 2006-2009

Ozawa in “Blueprint” (1993)

• Given the two above conditions -- that Japan’s neighbors are still alarmed by any independent action taken by Japan, and that America will be working actively for the maintenance of peace -- Japan’s path becomes self-evident. The most rational and effective way for Japan to contribute to world peace is by cooperating with America.

• The view that the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty has become obsolete with the end of the Cold War is shortsighted and grievously mistaken.

• Japan must emphasize the Japan-US relationship and develop a SDF centered on the United Nations…We must make the leap from our passive “exclusive defense strategy” to a dynamic “peace-building strategy.”

Ozawa on US-Japan (2009 interview)

• Japan and US should have a “more equal” relationship

• “The problem is that the Japanese government doesn’t have its own global policy. Its governing rule is that they should not offend the US and spend as little money as possible.”

• Opposed Iraq war• “The illogic of the Bush

administration concerns me the most. Even though Iraq kept saying they had no WMD, Washington kept insisting they had WMD. But in the case of North Korea, which admitted they had WMD, Washington is following a different policy.”

Ozawa on defense issues

• Believes Japan should bear primary burden of self-defense, with US support

• Deployment of SDF overseas without UN authorization is unconstitutional and beyond scope of self-defense

• If UN sanction, Japan can assist US military actions, as in Afghanistan

• US forces in Japan that are for purpose of defending Asia should remain -- ie 7th Fleet, Kadena Air Base -- along with surge facilities

• “Within that context, to the extent that Japan can replace the function of US forces, isn’t it natural that the US should have fewer forces deployed in Japan?”

DPJ Position on Key Issues

• Overseas deployment of SDF• US forces and bases in Japan• Relations with Asian

neighbors• The “history” question

SDF Deployment Overseas

• DPJ supported initial deployment of MSDF to Indian Ocean

• Opposed extension of mission on grounds it was being used to support Iraq war, not original “anti-terrorism” mission

• Opposed Iraq war and SDF deployment to Iraq

• Demands transparency on deployments and Diet authorization, including anti-piracy mission

US Forces/Bases in Japan

• Supports Okinawa on opposing relocation of Futenma air station to Camp Schwab and calls for re-examining Host Nation support for realignment and SOFA

Ozawa on US forces

“It would be fine to maintain Kadena air base if it is important for regional defense. But the helicopter base at Futenma in Okinawa is not being used for that purpose”

Interview with author, March, 2009

“Japan as a member of Asia”

• Legacy of Asianist ideas in Japan remains strong

• DPJ opposes “Big Japan” version of Asianism but harkens back to “Small Nipponism” of Ishibashi Tanzan

• Emphasis on improving relations with China, Korea and Southeast Asia

East Asian regionalism

• Key DPJ foreign policy advisors -- Terashima, Tanaka -- are advocates of more active leadership role in creating regional organization in East Asia

• Some interest in regional security structures in East Asia

DPJ on History issues

• DPJ approach to history issues is clear break from LDP

• Revisionist views not held

• Murayama/Hosokawa as precedents for DPJ on history

• DPJ officially opposed to visits to Yasukuni shrine, calls for removal of Class A war criminals

Ozawa on Gen Tamogami

• “It is a terrible thing, very unfortunate. It is because politicians are irresponsible…Officers in the military are not allowed to participate in politics…It is the same type of thinking that we had in the Showa period.”

Ozawa on Japan’s wartime aggression

First of all, in the war Japan caused terrible harm to China and others on the continent. We need to first honestly acknowledge that past. I would immediately resolve the Yasukuni problem. The Class-A war criminals will be removed from the shrine; that’s the issue that caused the Emperor to change his position about visiting it. It would be just a shrine for the war dead.

March, 2009

Foreign policy consensus in Japan

Dual hedge -- growing security role in alliance with US and balancing ties to China, Korea, Asia -- is growing consensus in Japan that crosses party lines

Consensus issues

• Hostile view of North Korea

• Support for missile defense

• Support for US-Japan security alliance

• Concern over rising China

Obama and the DPJ

• DPJ differences focused on Bush administration and its policies

• Policy convergence between DPJ and Obama administration is greater than with LDP

• Some key areas of convergence: nuclear disarmament, Green Deal, multilateralism

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A Japan that can say Maybe

What does anti-American mean? If pro-American means always saying yes to Americans, certainly the DPJ is not pro-American. If anti-Americanism is insisting on the abolition of the alliance, then no one in the DPJ is anti-American. Seven or eight times out of ten, we will say yes to the United States. But one or two times, we may say no, or let’s see.Kiyoshi Sugawa, DPJ Policy Research Committee

Thank you