A History of Presidential Elections 1789-2016

A Rough Course Schedule !  Lecture 1: 1789-1812

!  Lecture 2: 1812-1840

!  Lecture 3: 1840-1865

!  Lecture 4: 1865-1901

!  Lecture 5: 1901-1932

!  Lecture 6: 1932-1945

!  Lecture 7: 1945-1968

!  Lecture 8: 1968-today

The Election of 1808

1810 Midterms Emergence of Henry Clay

!  Unprecedented occurrence: new member, Henry Clay, elected Speaker of the House on his very first day

!  Created the modern speakership

!  Made Congress a more equal partner to Madison’s presidency

1812: De Witt Clinton, Mayor of New York

“Magnus Apollo” challenged Virginia’s dominance; accused Madison of slighting the defenses of northeast

“Wedding of the Waters”

1812: Madison 128, Clinton 89; War of 1812 dominant issue; opposition to war in northeast, where Madison

carried only PA and VT; Clinton received no electoral votes south of MD

War of 1812

(actually 1812 to 1815)

White House Burning, 1814

Satirizes the Hartford Convention, a series of meetings of New England Federalists,

December 1814

Battle of New Orleans January 1815

Election of 1816 James Monroe (DR) Rufus King (Federalist)

The Election of 1816: King Caucus and the “Mediocre” Monroe

!  Barely won the Republican congressional caucus over Secretary of War William Crawford of Georgia

!  Many objected to the succession of Virginia presidents

!  Some believed Crawford a superior choice to mediocre Monroe

!  The caucus vote: 65-54 (narrowness surprising because Crawford renounced nomination)

The Election of 1816 !  Federalist opposition to Monroe

was disorganized

!  Hartford Convention of 1814 discredited the Federalists

!  Democratic-Republicans had siphoned off Federalist support with national programs like the Second Bank of the United States

1816: Federalist Weakness

Monroe won with 183 electoral votes, carrying every state except MA, CT, and DE; Federalist Rufus King

received the votes of only 34 Federalist electors

The Collapse of the Federalist Party, 1816-1820 Largest Swings in Presidential Elections

Swings Against Parties

!  Republicans, 1912: -29%

!  Democrats: 1968: -21%

!  Republicans, 1932: -18%

!  Federalists: 1816: -18%

!  Republicans, 1992: -16%

!  Democrats, 1920: -15%

!  Republicans, 1976: -13%

Swings Against Incumbents

!  Taft, 1912: -29%

!  Hoover, 1932: -18%

!  G.H.W. Bush, 1992: -16%

Era of Good Feelings? !  Economic panic of 1819

!  Missouri sought admission as a slave state

!  The extension of slavery into the territories became a political issue

!  Compromise of 1820

!  Faced no opposition in 1820

The National Unity of 1820 The “Era of Good Feelings”(?)

Monroe won electoral vote 231-1

!  William Plumer of NH, lone elector against Monroe

!  Thought Monroe incompetent; voted for Adams

!  Myth emerged that Plumer cast dissenting vote to honor Washington; Plumer never mentioned Washington in his speech to NH electors

1801-1825 Period an Exception Only 13 presidents have been elected to two terms and

served all of those two full terms

!  Washington, 1789-97

!  Jefferson, 1801-09

!  Madison, 1809-1817

!  Monroe, 1817-1825

!  Jackson, 1829-37

!  Grant, 1869-1877

!  Wilson, 1913-1921

!  FDR, 1933-1945 (three full terms, elected to four)

!  Ike, 1953-1961

!  Reagan, 1981-1989

!  Clinton, 1993-2001

!  G.W. Bush, 2001-09

!  Obama, 2009-

The Missouri Compromise, 1820

The Election of 1824 !  Fracturing of old system

!  Death of caucus selection tradition

!  Unprecedented four-way contest exposes Electoral College problems

!  House decides winner

!  Accusations of “corrupt bargain” plague victor, John Quincy Adams

!  End of first party system

!  Partial Realignment election

Satirical portrayal of 1824 election. A cheering crowd watches as candidates (left to right) John Quincy Adams, William Crawford,

and Andrew Jackson stride toward the finish. Henry Clay has dropped from the race and stands, hand on head, on the far right.

William Crawford !  A weak congressional caucus

nominated Crawford, Monroe’s secretary of the treasury

!  Fell only 11 votes short of Monroe in 1816 caucus vote

!  By 1824, the competition had become stiffer: Adams, Clay, Calhoun, Jackson

John Quincy Adams, son of John Adams, James Monroe’s secretary of state and the main author

of the Monroe Doctrine

Henry Clay, the iconic Speaker of the House, architect of the Missouri Compromise of 1820, which

temporarily quieted sectional conflict over slavery

Who Was Andrew Jackson?

!  Military Governor of Florida, 1821

!  United States Senator from Tennessee, 1797-98; 1823-25

!  Member of the US House of Representatives, Tennessee at large district, 1796-97

!  Major General, United States Army

!  Battle of New Orleans

John C. Calhoun in 1824

!  Calhoun: “The Marx of the Master Class”

!  Distinguished Secretary of War in Monroe Administration

!  Calhoun, only 42, left presidential race to seek the vice presidency

The Original Structure Faltered Could Not Accommodate Increasing Democratization

1824-25: Clay’s Machinations The “Chair” Incident; and the “House” Incident

Election of 1824-25 In NY, Crawford supporter Van Buren threw support to Jackson,

to block Clay from finishing in top three in the House

1824 Election Decided in House, 1825

“Corrupt Bargain”

Turnout, 1824-1852 !  1824 26%

!  1828 57.6%

!  1832 55.4%

!  1836 57.8%

!  1840 80.2%

!  1844 78.9%

!  1848 72.7%

!  1852 69.6%

Electing the president has changed profoundly by 1824; 18 of 24

states held popular elections for delegates to the Electoral College. A: popular vote at-large; D: popular vote, districting; L:

legislative selection; H: hybrid system

Martin Van Buren

The Many Dimensions of Martin Van Buren !  The Little magician

!  Old Kinderhook

!  Red Fox of Kinderhook

!  The American Talleyrand

!  The Careful Dutchman

!  The Enchanter

!  The Great Manager

!  The Master Spirit

!  Martin Van Ruin

!  Matty Van

!  Little Van

!  The Mistletoe Politician

!  O.K. (for Old Kinderhook)

Van Buren and the “Albany Regency”

Parties as Meritocracies !  Recognized the original structure

could not accommodate a genuine democracy

!  Enthusiast for political parties

Era of Van Buren vs. Clay

Election of 1828 Andrew Jackson John Quincy Adams

One of the well-known “coffin hand bills” originated by Republican editor John Binns

!  Six coffins represent six militiamen executed by Jackson’s orders during 1813 Creek War

!  Other coffins represent soldiers and Indians executed by Jackson

!  Scene at lower right portrays Jackson assaulting and stabbing Samuel Jackson in the streets of Nashville

Clay: “Hold on Jonny Q--for I find that the people are too much for us, and I’m sinking with Jack and his Coffins!” Adams

(grasping the presidential chair): “I'll hang on to the Chair Harry, in spite of Coffin hand-bills … or the wishes of the People.”

Van Buren Establishes a Jacksonian Majority

1828 !  1828 destroyed old system

!  Jackson avenges 1824, ushering in new era of populist politics

!  First Democratic victory

!  Landslide/realignment election

Realignment, 1824-1828

Jackson !  “Old Hickory”

!  Battle of New Orleans, 1815

!  Seventh President, 1829-1837

!  Origins of Democratic Party

!  “Trail of Tears”

!  Bank of the United States

!  Nullification Crisis

Cigar box shows Jackson introduced to Peggy O’Neal (left) and two lovers fighting a duel over her (right)

The Petticoat Affair and the Destruction of John C. Calhoun

!  Divided those loyal to Jackson

!  Peggy’s husband committed suicide

!  She then married Sen. John Eaton

!  Jackson defended Peggy

!  Van Buren supported the Eatons and grew closer to Jackson

Calhoun (L) v. Van Buren (R) Van Buren outmaneuvered Calhoun

Aspects of Jacksonianism !  The removal and the

destruction of native Indian tribes

!  Denial to Indians of what white Americans claimed for themselves

!  It took all of Jackson’s prestige and political manipulation to gain the passage of the Indian Removal Act of 1830, by House vote of 102-97

The Jacksonian Succession, 1832 !  Jackson decided Democrats ought

to hold convention

!  Jackson wanted to remove Calhoun

!  If they left the nomination to the legislatures, they might be stuck with him

!  Jackson contrived to have the New Hampshire legislature call for a national Convention

Election of 1832 Andrew Jackson Henry Clay

1832: One of those important confirming elections we don’t

talk about enough, such as 1804, 1864, 1900, 1936. The electorate had the opportunity to voice its feelings about the

changes, 1829-1832, and did so resoundingly

The Second Party System 1828-1854

Democratic Party, c.1828-

�  Decentralized Government �  No Internal Improvements �  Agriculture �  Rural, some urban �  Some Slave Owners �  Low Tariffs (taxes) �  Andrew Jackson �  Martin Van Buren �  President James K. Polk �  Stephen A. Douglas

Whig Party, c.1832-

�  Strong Central Government �  Internal Improvements �  Manufacturing �  Urban America �  Some Abolitionists �  High Tariffs (taxes) �  Henry Clay �  Daniel Webster �  President W. H. Harrison �  Abraham Lincoln

Martin Van Buren !  Eighth President, 1837-1841

!  Founder of the Democratic Party, 1824-

!  Ran for President: 1836: Won

!  1840: Lost Reelection

!  1844: Lost Nomination

!  1848: Free Soil Nominee

!  Indirect founder of the GOP?

1834 Midterms Emergence of Whig Opposition

Clay of Kentucky; Webster of New Hampshire

The Birth of Conventions !  Chicago: (25) 1860R, 1864D, 1868R,

1880R, 1884D, 1884R, 1888R, 1892D, 1896D, 1904R, 1908R, 1912R, 1916R, 1920R, 1932D, 1932R, 1940D, 1944D, 1944R, 1952D, 1952R, 1956D, 1960R, 1968D, 1996D

!  Baltimore: (13) 1831W, 1832D, 1836D, 1840D, 1844D, 1844W, 1848D, 1852D, 1852W, 1860D, 1864R, 1872D, 1912D

!  Philadelphia: (10) 1848W; 1856R, 1872R, 1900R, 1936D, 1940R, 1948D, 1948R, 2000R, 2016D

!  New York: (6) 1868D, 1924D, 1976D, 1980D, 1992D, 2004R

!  St. Louis: (5) 1876D, 1888D, 1896R, 1904D, 1916D

!  San Francisco: (4) 1920D, 1956R, 1964R, 1984D

!  Cincinnati: (3) 1856D, 1876R, 1880D

!  Cleveland: (3) 1924R, 1936R, 2016R

!  Miami Beach: (3) 1968R; 1972D; 1968R

The Era of Conventions What were the most significant conventions?

!  1. 1860 Republican: Lincoln nominated

!  2. 1844 Democratic: Van Buren denied; Polk nominated

!  3. 1932 Democratic: FDR nominated (just barely)

!  5. 1860 Democratic: Douglas denied; Democrats split

!  6. 1912 Republican: Teddy Roosevelt denied; Taft nominated; GOP splits

!  7. 1920 Republican: Harding nominated over several others

!  8. 1912 Democratic: Wilson upsets Champ Clark

The Jacksonian Succession, 1832 !  Jackson decided Democrats ought

to hold convention

!  Jackson wanted to remove Calhoun

!  If they left the nomination to the legislatures, they might be stuck with him

!  Jackson contrived to have the New Hampshire legislature call for a national Convention

Election of 1832 Andrew Jackson Henry Clay

1835 Democratic Convention, Baltimore

!  To assure the nomination of Jackson’s handpicked successor, Van Buren, and to allow Van Buren his veep choice, Richard Johnson

!  Tennessee refused to send delegation

!  Unwilling to lose those votes, Van Buren’s convention manager went to a tavern, found a Tennessean named Edward Rucker, who just happened to be in Baltimore, and made him a one-man, fifteen-vote delegation

!  “Rucker” became a verb

Richard Mentor Johnson !  Faithless Electors

!  In 157 instances, electors have cast their votes for President or Vice President in a manner different from that prescribed by the legislature of the state they represented.

!  1836, 23 Virginia(!) electors conspired to change their vote together against Richard Mentor Johnson

Richard Mentor Johnson !  Only vice president elected by

Senate under Twelfth Amendment

!  Fell short of the electoral votes needed

!  Virginia’s electors went against the state’s popular vote and refused Johnson

!  Elected to the office by the Senate, dominated by Democrats

Election of 1836 Van Buren Defeats Three Whigs

Van Buren’s Challenges !  Van Buren was a Jeffersonian

!  But his presidency revealed that Jeffersonianism could not work in a market economy

!  Laissez Faire would not work in modern economy

!  Perhaps in a rural, slave-owning setting, but not in a country with large metropolitan areas

A caricature of Martin Van Buren as an opossum

!  The marsupial, with a smirking Van Buren’s head, rises on its hindquarters and displays in its pouch three of its “young”

!  They are administration insiders (left to right): Thomas Hart Benton, John C. Calhoun, and Washington Globe editor Francis Preston Blair

Satire of the image-building and manipulation of candidate

William Henry Harrison. Two influential Whigs, Senator Henry Clay (left) and Congressman Henry A. Wise, operate the strings of

a “dancing-jack” toy figure of Harrison in military uniform

1840 Whig Nomination

BALLOT: 1 2 3 4 5

!  Harrison 94 94 91 91 148

!  Clay 103 103 95 95 90

!  Scott 57 57 68 68 16

William Henry Harrison and 1840 “Hard Cider” Campaign

!  The election of 1840 also contributed to the rise of popular politics, with the Whigs shrewdly, if misleadingly, marketing the wealthy planter and war hero William Henry Harrison as the “log cabin and hard cider” candidate, a man of the people from the rough and tumble West

!  They organized log cabin clubs and distributed log cabin mugs and medallions and flyers showing Harrison seated beside a log cabin and a barrel of cider.

The Whigs led songfests that celebrated Harrison as the hero of the common man and lampooned their

Democratic opponent Van Buren as an effete eastern dandy addicted to French wine

In 1840 the word “booze” became part of the language

!  During the 1840 campaign, a Philadelphia distiller, E.C. Booz, began putting whiskey into bottles shaped like log cabins and calling it “Old Cabin Whiskey”

!  Booze and distilled liquor became synonymous

Election of 1840 Van Buren driving a carriage called “Uncle Sam’s Cab,” which wrecks on a pile of “Clay,” representing Henry Clay; Harrison,

depicted as a locomotive, bears down on Van Buren

The Trap Sprung! The Kinderhook Fox Caught!

The Election of 1840 The Whigs Get it Right

1836 and 1840 1840: Democrat Electoral Collapse