A clean, green, connected, shared future of cars (maybe) · the state of the EU market Cars are...
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A clean, green, connected, shared future of cars (maybe) Greg Archer, Clean Vehicles Director The automotive industry on the brink of a new paradigm? European Economic & Social Committee November 3 rd 2016, Brussels [email protected]
Transcript of A clean, green, connected, shared future of cars (maybe) · the state of the EU market Cars are...
A clean, green, connected,
shared future of cars (maybe)
Greg Archer, Clean Vehicles Director
The automotive industry on the brink of a new paradigm?
European Economic & Social Committee
November 3rd 2016, Brussels [email protected]
2 T&E: 27 COUNTRIES
49 MEMBER & SUPPORT GROUPS
Current cars are overwhelmingly
unsustainable
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3 complementary trends
dominate the future of cars
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Forbes
Battery prices are falling sharply,
performance is improving
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http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2564.html
T&E expectations
By 2025 there remains only a small difference in
the 4 year TCO between all plugin technologies
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-€ 1.000
€ 1.000
€ 3.000
€ 5.000
2015 2020 2025 2030
Difference in 4 year total cost of ownership € compared to a gasoline
Gasoline ICE Gasoline HEV Gasoline PHEV
Diesel Diesel HEV Diesel PHEV
Electric
€0 €0 €0 €0
Based upon data supplied by Element Energy
We must create a
single EU market
for EVs
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Autonomous cars can double or
half energy intensity of trips
depending upon their use
Hell
• Double energy intensity
Heaven
• Half energy intensity
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Reduced costs – increased trips
Increased speeds &
performance
Additional drivers
Mode shifting to cars
Heavy infotainment systems
Zero occupancy congestion
Rightsized
Lighter
Platooning
Auto eco-driving
Congestion avoidance
Reduced performance
Shared use
?
3 steps to sustainable use of cars
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Ambitious new car targets
• Euro 7; 2025 & 2030 CO2 targets + ultra low carbon vehicle mandate
Loophole free regulations & robust representative tests overseen by independent regulators
• Defeat devices; supercredits; conformity factors, real world tests,
Promoting co-modality by integrating sharing, electrification & connectivity / automation
• Road pricing, restriction of vehicle access to cities and reassignment of road space
ACEA scaremongers about
the state of the EU market
Cars are manufactured close to market – labour represents only a small share of the production
cost – EU production is neither at threat nor will it grow appreciably
EU sales and production are back to pre-crisis levels – and have been very strong in 2016
(+10%)
The increasing age of vehicles is due to improved durability and the rising stock of vehicles (+10% in
10 years)
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