OUR FUTURE IS CARBON NEGATIVE

A CCS Roadmap for Romania

The Bellona Foundation and CCS

• 1990s: initial CCS discussions with Norwegian research and industry

• 2005: one of the founders of ZEP

• 2008: Bellona Scenario shows CCS crucial to combat climate change

• 2007-09: influencing EU energy & climate legislation; NER 300 funding

• 2009: BEST founded; Member State mapping, Romania central country

• 2011: EU Energy Roadmap 2050

• 2010-12: BEST Country Roadmaps

CCS & ROMANIA

Impending Energy Gap • Capacity retirement • Diverse Capacity

• Coal + Lignite • Fossil Gas • Renewable • Nuclear

CO2 Storage Potential • 7.5 Gt (EU GeoCapacity) • 18 Gt (GeoEcoMar)

Depleted Oil & Gas Reservoirs • 490 Mt (EU GeoCapacity) • 4 Gt (GeoEcoMar) • Long history of hydrocarbon production

Enhanced Oil Recovery • CO2 EOR provides revenue • Reuse of suitable infrastructure • Onshore reduces costs and risks

Infrastructure • Extensive gas pipeline network • Reuse of wells where suitable

KEY PARAMETERS

Parameter 2010 2030 2050

EUA Price (€) 10 (10/10) 50 (25/75) 90 (45/135)

Lignite Emission Factor (tonnes CO2/TJ) 112,2 - -

Coal Emissions Factor (tonnes CO2/TJ) 94,9 - -

Natural Gas Emission Factor (tonnes CO2/TJ)

56,1 - -

Biomass Emission Factor (tonnes CO2/TJ)

109,6 - -

Lignite Price (€/GJ) 1.52 (1.00/4.00) - -

Coal Price (€/GJ) 2.19 (1.00/4.00) - -

Natural Gas Price (€/GJ) 5.50 (2.50/8.00) - -

Biomass Price (€/GJ) 2,19 - -

New Coal Plant efficiency (%) 45 50 50

New Lignite Plant Efficiency (%) 40 45 45

New Natural Gas Plant Efficiency (%) 60 60 60

Energy Penalty (pp)

Pulverised Coal 11 (16) 8 (12) 8 (12)

Oxycombustion 12 (18) 8 (12) 8 (12)

IGCC 13 (20) 4 (6) 4 (6)

NGCC 8 (13) 7 (11) 7 (11)

Capture Efficiency (%) 95 (85) 95 (85) 95 (85)

Additional Capital Cost (Thousand €/MW)

Pulverised Coal 952 (533/1202) 571 (400/1250) 391 (324/1013)

Oxycombustion 1500 (557/2071) 714 (371/1429) 579 (301/1157)

IGCC 905 (457/1214) 571 (343/1214) 463 (278/984)

NGCC 440 (229/583) 250 (171/441) 203 (139/434)

Cost of Capital (% per year) 10 (5/15) 10 (5/15) 10 (5/15)

Nominal Plant Lifetime (years) 30 30 30

Co-firing Capital Costs (Thousand €/MW)

161 129 104

Transport Cost (€/tonne) 1.5 (0.5/4) 1.5 (0.5/4) 1.5 (0.5/4)

Storage Cost (€/tonne) 4 (1/12) 4 (1/12) 4 (1/12)

Currency Conversion (USD/EUR) 1,4 1,4 1,4

MODELLING THE FUTURE POWER SECTOR

New Coal A 2030

Nuclear A 2030

Nuclear B 2035

New Coal A 2030

New Coal B 2030

New Coal C 2035

Caveat:

No modelling of renewables and energy

efficiency – taken from draft Romanian

Energy Plan 2011-2035

Good potential for RES, but CCS will

anyway be needed to ensure baseload –

and for other industries (also covered in the

BEST Roadmap)

MODELLING CCS DEPLOYMENT

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Total costs avoided by applying CCS

CCS cost-saving • Under all but the most unfavourable values • CCS necessary in both energy trajectories

All

High

Costs

TOTAL COSTS OF BIOMASS CO-FIRING

Solid biomass availability for energy

BIO-CCS & CARBON NEGATIVE

BIOFUEL POTENTIAL

• Largest potential for sustainable biofuels production in the EU

• Low-cost capture options – carbon-negative fuels

• Investments under way

• Tarom/Airbus/Honeywell/Camelina Company Espana

The message is simple but clear: CCS will be necessary to avoid soaring energy prices in Romania

• Fossil energy production will become much cheaper with CCS than without CCS

• Combined with biomass co-firing, CCS can even make buying CO2 quotas completely unnecessary for the Romanian power sector

• Though the EUA price is currently very low, the European Commission will soon table options for strengthening the EU ETS and rise the price to ensure emission reductions

• Support Getica

• CCS readiness requirements for all new thermal generation

• Further refine and reassess CO2 storage legislation

• Accelerate near-term commercial CCS

• Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)

• Comprehensively characterise available CO2 storage capacity

• Ensuring sufficient storage capacity be available by 2020

• Produce detailed assessments of depleted and tail-end hydrocarbon fields available for CO2 storage

• A National Programme addressing the timing and potential re-use of pipelines or corridors as well as injection wells

• Electricity market reform

• Reward dependable low carbon generation

• Define CCS clusters

RECOMMENDATIONS

BEST+ ROADMAPS

Vă mulţumesc pentru atenţie!

www.bellona.org/CCS

jonas@bellona.org