A Bayesian-Network Risk Assessment Incorporating Human ...

Microsoft Word - -2012-Vol 3 No 3Journal of Taiwan Maritime Safety and Security Studies Vol 3, No 3
19
***

Abstract
Recently, maritime accidents emerge in an endless stream, and the cause of the
maritime accidents result largely from human factors. Thus, a comprehensive risk
* Shuen-Tai UngE-mail: [email protected]
** Yi-San LinE-mail: [email protected]
(June 2012) ISSN 2077-8759
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assessment needs to be developed in advance in order to reduce the risks of
disasters. It is, however, difficult to acquire sufficient and historical data in the
maritime industry, hence expert judgment plays crucial roles. Fuzzy set theory is
one of the methods that is often applied to convert the expert judgment into
numerical values. Some studies adopt Mass Assignment theory as a conversion
mechanism. However, Mass Assignment theory confines the membership functions
of linguistic terms to a discrete nature and this violates the logic of human thoughts.
In order to solve the drawbacks of Mass Assignment theory, a new risk
assessment method capable of transforming expert judgment into probability values
is proposed by combining curve fitting methods with Bayesian network. After the
validation it is concluded that the framework proposed has the capability of solving
the shortcomings aforementioned.
Bayesian Network

Mass Assignment

Journal of Taiwan Maritime Safety and Security Studies Vol 3, No 3
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22
(Preliminary Hazard Analysis, PHA) (What-If
Analysis)

2.4
(Emergency, Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue
System, EEER) 2008 Eleye-Datubo (Human
Performance) EEER Mass Assignment

2008 Eleye-Datubo

(Numerical
(Functional Membership Function)
(Continuous Membership Function)
(Membership Grade)

23
199620032008)
2-1
0 1 1
0.1

45 1
2-2 0 1
45 1 45
45 90 0 90
90
65 0.6 65 0.6
1
0.6
0.8
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

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2-3 HP
Very poorPoorBelow AverageAverage
GoodVery Good Excellent
2-3

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
0 20 40 60 80 100

25
Mass Assignment

3-1 A
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
12345

26
3.3
3-3
MATLAB
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
1

27
3.4

3.6

Netica
Expert

28

EEER

11
(
)
if-then
IFextraANDminimalAND
very goodANDslightANDfantastic
ANDinconsequentialANDhighAND
fairANDacceptableAND
certified very healthyANDnormalTHEN
excellent

29

EEER
EEER
2008 Eleye-Datubo EEER
Very PoorPoorBelow AverageAverageGoodVery Good Excellent
HP1HP2HP3HP4HP5HP6 HP7 HP
2-3
30

HP 00010.70.5 0.1
4-2 4-3 Hp
HP1HP2
HP3
4.2.3
HP6 HP7 HP
MATLAB
4-4 MATLAB polyfit
4-5

0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1

31

HP4HP5HP6 HP7 000
10.70.5 0.1
4.2.4
for k = 1:4
32
3.1
HP4 HP
HP1=0HP2=0HP3=0HP4=1HP5=0.7HP6=0.5 HP7=0.1 3.1
HP4 0.435
4.2.5
teP 1 t
25 λ
λ 8.93×10-38.43×10-33.77×10-3

4-1
0.8 0.81 0.91
0.2 0.19 0.09
Eleye-Datubo et al. (2006)
EEER (Fire Alarm)(Flooding Alarm)

4-2 EEER

0.87 0.001 0.89 0.001 0.13 0.999 0.11 0.999
33
EEER (Evacuation)

4-3
4-3 EEER

Eleye-Datubo et al. (2006)
EEER
4-4 EEER
0 0 0 0.435 0.304 0.217 0.043
EEER
28 2006 Eleye-Datubo
4-5 4-6
4-5 EEER

0.92 0.35 0.9 0.3 0.85 0.25 0.8 0.2 0.75 0.15 0.7 0.1 0.65 0.04

0.08 0.65 0.1 0.7 0.15 0.75 0.2 0.8 0.25 0.85 0.3 0.9 0.35 0.96
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0.95 0.45 0.9 0.4 0.85 0.35 0.8 0.3 0.75 0.25 0.7 0.2 0.65 0.15

0.05 0.55 0.1 0.6 0.15 0.65 0.2 0.7 0.25 0.75 0.3 0.8 0.35 0.85
4.2.6
4-7
4-7 EEER
2006 Eleye-Datubo
60.76% 73.70% 39.24% 26.30%

59.83% 63.48% 40.17% 36.52%
EEER

35

1. 2008 FUZZY 3
2. Steven C. Chapra 2005 MATLAB

3. William J. Palm III 2010MATLAB7

6. 2011

9. 2003
10. 1997
11. Lindfield, G. and Penny, J.1997 MATLAB

14. 1996
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16. Balmat, J. F., Lafont, F., Maifret, R., and Pessel, N., 2011. A Decision-making System to Maritime Risk Assessment. Ocean Engineering, 38(1), 171-176.
17. Eleye-Datubo, A. G., Wall, A., Saajedi, A., and Wang, J., 2006. Enabling a Powerful Marine and Offshore Decision-Support Solution through Bayesian Network Technique. Risk Analysis, 26(3), 695-721.
18. Eleye-Datubo, A. G., Wall, A., and Wang, J., 2008. Marine and Offshore Safety Assessment by Incorporative Risk Modeling in a Fuzzy-Bayesian Network of an Induced Mass Assignment Paradigm. Risk Analysis, 28(1), 95-112.
19. Ren, J., Jenkinson, I., Wang, J., Xu, D. L., and Yang, J. B., 2009. An Offshore Risk Analysis Method Using Fuzzy Bayesian Network. Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 131(4), 3-16.
20. Wang, J., 2006. Maritime Risk Assessment and its Current Status. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 22(1), 3-19.

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