A Balanced Look At Climate Change

1. A Balanced Look at Climate Change A Balanced Look at Climate Change Professor Hector R Rodriguez School of Business Mount Ida College Business, Society & Environment

Society

The Corporation and Its Stakeholders

People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals

Corporate Citizenship

The Social Responsibility of Business

The Shareholder Primacy Norm

CSR, Citizenship and Sustainability Reporting

Responsible Investing

The Community and the Corporation

Taxation and Corporate Citizenship

Corporate Philanthropy Programs

Employees and the Corporation

Managing a Diverse Workforce

Environment

A Balanced Look at Climate Change

Non-anthropogenic Causes of Climate Change

Sulfates, Urban Warming and Permafrost

Conventional Energy

The Kyoto Protocol

Green Building

Green Information Technology

Transportation, Electric Vehicles and the Environment

Geo-Engineering

Carbon Capture and Storage

Renewable Energy

Solid, Toxic and Hazardous Waste

Forests, Paper and Carbon Sinks

Life Cycle Analysis

Water Use and Management

Water Pollution

This session aims to give you a balanced look at the arguments surrounding Climate Change

As usual, when one loiters at an one extreme of any discussion, the arguments become crystal clear, when in fact they are anything but.

Surrounding Climate Change in particular, a few arguments seem to be settled, including the following:

There isevidenceof historical Climate Change

Human activity isinfluencingCO 2concentrations in the air

CO 2is a greenhouse gas which traps heat in the atmospherewith the potential to increase temperatures throughout the world

In this section I will present different perspectives regarding the potential impacts of Climate Change.

Perspective One represented by organizations and individuals such as the IPCC and Al Gore

Perspective Two represented by organizations and individuals such as the Copenhagen Consensus and Bjorn Lomborg

As you will see, current arguments are not crystal clear

Crop productivity is projected to increaseslightly atmid to high latitudesfor local mean temperature increases of up to 1 to 3C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some regions.

At lower latitudes , especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions,crop productivity is projected to decreasefor even small local temperature increases (1 to 2C), which would increase the risk of hunger.

Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1 to 3C, but above this it is projected to decrease

Food availability has increased dramatically over the last four decades ; the average person in the developing world has experienced a 40% increase in available calories, while the proportion of malnourished has dropped from 50 to 17%.

A few large scale surveys have looked at the effect of climate change on agricultural production together with the global food trade system.Crucial findings:

All models envision a large increase in agricultural output

In worst case scenarios this means a 7% yield decrease in the developing world (still an overall increase of 270% by 2100).

CO 2in itself accounts as a positive factor, since it acts as fertilizer, making crops grow more everywhere.

Industry, settlements and society

Whats clear - The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those in coastal and river flood plains, those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources and those in areas prone to extreme weather events.

While the data on the right seems to confirm this, the trend lacks appropriate context (see next slide).

In Florida, Dade and Broward counties are today home to more people than lived in 1930 in all 109 coastal counties from Texas to Virginia.

If the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane had hit today, it would have created the worst damage ever in the United States.*

The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones seems then to largely have been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions, not by increasing hurricane strength.

Global warming eventually will increase precipitation, especially heavy rains; this will lead to more flooding

Increased rains however does not seem to be translating into flooding in rivers; this holds true in a sample of over 200 rivers.

When studying U.S. rivers we see increasing precipitation causing increasing stream flows, but this happens mostly during the fall, when there is generally lower flow and little risk of flooding.

As with hurricanes, economic losses hold the key

Coasts

Sea levels will rise 12-18 inches by 2100 (high confidence)

Note: sea levels have risen approximately 12 inches in the last hundred years

Coasts are projected to be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, due to climate change and sea level rise. The effect will be exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures on coastal areas ( very high confidence ).

By the 2080s, many millions more people than today are projected to experience floods every year due to sea level rise. The numbers affected will be largest in the densely populated and low-lying megadeltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable ( very high confidence ).

Al Gore Here we see how large parts of Florida, including all of Miami, will be inundated by 20 feet of water.

The IPCC says one foot, Gore says 20 feet, how so?He simply says If Greenland melted or broke up and half of Antarctica melted of broke up and slipped into the sea, sea levels worldwide would increase by 18-20 feet.He is simply posting a hypothetical.Bjorn Lomborg in Cool It

Statements like these (Gores), which aim to alert at best, scare at worst, are not beneficial when we try to bring credibility to an argument.

As business people, we must stay away from them

A 2006 Science paper by Eric Rignot documented increasing runoff from the main ice sheet and peripheral glaciers at a rate of 53 +/- cubic miles, a seemingly large number

Greenlands ice mass is estimated at 6.8 x 10 5cubic miles

The loss equals 8 thousandths of a percent per year, translating to a sea level rise of two hundredths of an inch per year

Widespread mass losses from glaciers and reductions in snow cover over recent decades are projected to accelerate throughout the 21st century,

This willreduce water availability ,hydropower potential,and change seasonality of flows in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges.

There is also high confidence that many semi-arid areas (e.g. the Mediterranean Basin, western United States, southern Africa and north-eastern Brazil) will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change.

The water-stress index looks at how much water is available per person and counts people with less than 1,000 m 3(seven gallons per day) as highly water stressed.

When looking forward to future years, it is clear that more people are going to be water stressed,as a consequence of an increasing population.

The UKs Fast Track Assessment concludes that global warming actually reduces the number of people living in water-stressed areas, with less water stress in warmer scenarios than in colder ones.

This is because a warmer world also means more precipitation, in general models predict about 5% more precipitation by 2100.Some parts will get drier, especially the Mediterranean area, central and southern Africa, and the southern United States.

In total however (including wetter western Africa), with warming we have an Africa where 24 million fewer will be water stressed

In its 2006 World Water Report, the UN summarizes that the lack of water is primarily driven by an inefficient supply of services rather than by water shortages.

Models show that heat events we now see every twenty years will become much more frequent, every three years by the end of the century

This confirms the prospect that we could be seeing many more heat deaths, a tragedy that will indeed be caused by global warming

But cold spells will decrease just as much as heat waves increase.In areas where there is one cold spell every three years, by the end of the century those would happen only once every twenty years

The heat wave in Europe in early August 2003 was a catastrophe; the death toll ran to more than 35,000

While thirty-five thousand dead is a terrifyingly large number, we should look at the number in context:

2,000 people died from heat in the United Kingdom in 2003, yet 47,000 cold deaths were reported on average between 1998-2000

It is remarkable that a single heat-death episode of 35,000 from many countries can get everyone up in arms, while cold deaths of 25-50,000 a year in a single country pass almost unnoticed.

Several recent studies have looked at adaptation in up to 28 of the biggest cities in the United States.

In Philadelphia, the optimal temperature seems to be about 80 oF.In the 1960s, when it got hotter (100 oF), the death rate increased sharply.

Yet something happened in the decades following, temperatures in the 100 oF today cause almost no excess deaths.We actually learned to adapt to higher temperatures.

Consequently we could experience fewer deaths even when temperatures rise.

Urbanheat islandsare already affecting cities around the world, with Tokyo experiencing a differential ofmore than 20 oFfrom its suburbs.

It's no secret that polar bears are in deep trouble; there are only between 20,000 and 25,000 of them left in the world.

Perhaps the best studied of the groups is the Western Hudson Bay population, which scientists have been monitoring since the 1960s.

For decades, membership of the group remained relatively stable, at about 1,200 adults and cubs. Between 1987 and 1994, however precisely the years in which the rise in global temperatures have become the most evident the number plummeted to 935, or a die-off of 22%.

It's not just the fact that the bears are dying that's so alarming, but the way they're dying and all of it points to a warmer world.

The report relied extensively on research published in 2001 by the Polar Bear Specialist Group of the World Conservation Union

What the group indicated was that of the twenty distinct subpopulations of polar bears, one or possibly two were declining in Baffin Bay; more than half were known to be stable; and two subpopulations were actuallyincreasingaround Beaufort Sea.

Moreover, it is reported that the global polar bear population has increased dramatically over the past few decades, from about five thousand members in the 1960s to twenty five thousand today, through stricter hunting regulation

Contrary to what we may expect, the two populations in decline come from areas where it has actually been getting colder over the past fifty years.

At times, we hear claims that are not supported by data.

While it is likely that disappearing ice will force them to change their lifestyle, over the past forty years the populations have increased and are now stable.

Polar bears are not the only story.

While we hear about the troubled species, it is also a fact that many species will do better with climate change; higher temperatures mean more nesting birds and more butterflies.

Our worries makes us focus on the wrong solutions.

If indeed the polar bear population was going down, stricter hunting regulations would have a swifter effect (and did) than trying to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Note how the descriptions typically talk only about the impending problems and conspicuously leave out any positive consequences.

The descriptions tend toward hyperbole;

Once the freeze starts, it will be too late

The surface temperature of the whole North Atlantic has cooled one eight of the way back to full ice age conditions

Sea levels will rise about a foot over the next 100 years causing social and economic challenges

Sea levels have risen about a foot over the last 150 years with limited (though catastrophic to individuals) impact

Many will die due to increasing heat waves

Many will be saved through significantly less cold deaths

Polar Bears may be at risk due to global warming

More polar bears can be saved by less hunting than by reductions of CO 2

Glaciers will continue to melt at an ever increasing pace

Glacier meltdown will provide more fresh water over next 50 years

Human activity is increasing the levels of CO 2in the atmosphere

CO 2is a greenhouse gas

Greenhouse gases trap heat

A comprehensive strategy to mitigate the risk associated with GHG emissions must be implemented.It should include the following steps:

Developing renewable sources of energy

Implementing comprehensive International Protocols

Establishing emission trading markets (Cap & Trade)

Increasing efficiency (in buildings, IT, transportation)

Implementing engineering controls (geo-engineering, CCS)

A Balanced Look At Climate Change

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