NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update A look back at summer and a preview of fall.

NOAA Climate Science & ServicesNOAA Climate Science & ServicesMonthly Climate UpdateMonthly Climate Update

A look back at summer and a preview of fallA look back at summer and a preview of fall

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8th warmest August and 2nd warmest on land11th warmest year-to-date

ENSO• La Niña conditions return

September 15, 2011 Monthly Climate Webinar

Arctic Sea Ice:•August average sea ice extent was the 2nd smallest on record, according to the NSIDC. Image shows September 13 update.

•Currently second smallest extent on record, could approach record from 2007.

Drier than Average Summer• Record dry summer in TX• Record wet summer in CA & NJ

3September 15, 2011 Monthly Climate Webinar

2011 Short-Term Drought Ranking as of July 31

Dark red: worst in 100 yearsYellow: tenth worstDark blue: 50th %ile

Worst Short-Term Droughts by Location(and % of state where it’s worst)

2011: 4.05”

2011: 86.8 F

Driest consecutive 12-month periods on record (non-overlapping)

13.69” Oct 1955 – Sept 195614.27” Feb 1917 – Jan 191814.69” Sept 2010 – Aug 2011*15.50” July 1924 – June 1925

*Oct 2010 – Sept. 13, 2011 (estimated): 10.08”

Normal Texas rainfallWestern edge: 8-12”Eastern edge: 50-60”

Spring wildfires: dried remnants of lush grassy growth from previous summer

Late summer wildfires: dried undergrowth in wetter half of state combined with extremely drought-stressed forests

Desperate cattle have left rangelands bare, limiting fire danger in open areas

• Wildfires– Enhanced fire danger with strong winds and low humidity (today through

Saturday)– Short term rain reduces ignition risk– Catastrophic fires possible with strong cold fronts or low pressure systems– Greatest danger: forests in central and eastern Texas

• Winter wheat planting, October-November– Panhandle and west-central Texas– Winter forage for cattle

• Spring agriculture, February-April– Need topsoil moisture– Vulnerable to drought without deep moisture

• Water supplies– Low demand in winter– Shortages to re-emerge in late spring

DE

PTH

surface

450m


La Nina is back

• New U.S. Hazards Outlook Format: 3-7, 8-14-days• GIS, Layers, Shape and KML data available for ease of use


• NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center: www.ncdc.noaa.gov• Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global)): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/• Billion dollar U.S. weather disasters: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/billionz.html

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov • Climate Portal: www.climate.gov• U.S. Drought Monitor: www.drought.gov• Texas State Climatologist: http://atmo.tamu.edu/osc• Texas Drought Preparedness Council:

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/CouncilsCommittees/droughtCouncil/stateDroughtPrepCouncil.htm


NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update A look back at summer and a preview of fall.

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