ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1...
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9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
0102030405060708090
100
11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14
USD
Bill
ion
US CCI Personal Consumption Expenditures, RHS
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
08 08 08 09 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14
% Y
oY
ISM Manufacturing Industrial Production, RHS
������������ ������������ ������������ก���� ���ก����� !"#� �$%�&'�(&'ก�%&
ก��!"#� ��&�)�*�ก�+����� ,���-���� %����&
2
Jan-
11
Apr-1
1
Jul-1
1
Oct
-11
Jan-
12
Apr-1
2
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr-1
3
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr-1
4
Jul-1
4
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-
08
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep-
09
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep-
10
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep-
11
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep-
12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep-
13
Jan-
14
May
-14
PCE Core PCE
Jan-
08
Jun-
08
Nov-
08
Apr-0
9
Sep-
09
Feb-
10
Jul-1
0
Dec
-10
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Aug-
12
Jan-
13
Jun-
13
Nov-
13
Apr-1
4
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25
30
35
40
45
%Fed hike rates probability
As of 21 July 2014
As of 1 Aug 2014
As of 8 Aug 2014
As of 14 Aug 2014
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3
0
5
10
15
20
25
3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 up
As of 14 Aug 2014
As of 20 Aug 2014
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-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
% Y
oY 3Q/2013
4Q/2013
1Q/2014
2Q/2014
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70Eurozone PMI Germany PMI France PMI
Italy PMI Demarcating Line
Expansion
Contraction
ก��!"#� ��&�)�*�ก�+��$ ���3��-�44�5'�%��& ���� �&���-$���$ ����$&�&ก���ก��!"#� ��&�)�*�ก�+
����� �ก���$�$ ��&�)�*�ก�+��$ ���3�2-�'�%��& ������ก��2-� ECB �+ก�� �ก��ก�/ 6���)�*�ก�+������ ����&+�ก2-�1��,�����ก��-�$��'��� (�ก��-�$��$��$���� 0.05%)
4-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-
11
Ap
r-11
Jul-1
1
Oct
-11
Jan-
12
Ap
r-12
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Ap
r-13
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Ap
r-14
% Y
oY
Loan to Households Loans to Corporations
-4 30
Jan-
12
Apr-1
2
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr-1
3
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr-1
4
Jul-1
4
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep-
13
Nov-
13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
% Y
oY
CPI
PPI
�� �ก��TLTRO �%�+/�%�$�����6�ก��,�%$����������7������ %�)�*�ก�++��&
���&���!.��$ ���3�$&�&,�����& %����&
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10
12
14
16
18
%
Share of imports of petroleum products from RussiaRussia
33%
Others
21%
Algeria
5%
Libya
6%
Share of EU imports of oil and gas
�� ���!�"�#�!������� ������$%��
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
Germany
Netherlands
Poland
France
Belgium
Italy
Finland
United Kingdom
Spain
Sweden
Greece
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Turkey
Hungary
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Kazachstan
7%Saudi Arabia
8%
Nigeria
9%
Norway
11%
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ก��20�ก��20� Carry Trade Carry Trade ����� +/�-�����0��4��$�&����� +/�-�����0��4��$�&
24681012
% FX performance vs Carry return
6
-14-12-10-8-6-4-202
BZ AU ID SK MA PK IN TH PH NZ CO VN MX TU CH PE SO CZ HU RU
Carry return on 1-year bond (%) FX return (%YTD)
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep
-12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
% Y
oY
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14
% Y
oY
HSBC PMI China's Consumption of Electricity
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ก���$�$ ��&�)�*�ก�++-����/$/���&�����+����4ก�����2��2�$��ก����
7
Loans to Households Loans to Corporate
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep
-12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
% Y
oY
Total Sales of Residential Building China Real Estate Climate (RHS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
RM
B B
illio
n
China NPL City Commercial Banks
China NPL Rural Commercial Banks
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-10
-5
0
5
10
15
05
101520253035404550
% Y
oY
Japan Consumer Conf idence Index Japan Retail Sales, RHS
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
% Y
oY
JP Industrial Production JP Export
���ก����� �&4-�,69�$&�&!"#� �1��1�%� (�2-��ก������������ ������������2$$!"#� �������&+�กก��,����*-ก��������
�)�*�ก�+4-�,69�ก0��&ก��� %����2�&ก��!"#� �-ก���& ��&+�กก��,��������*-ก��������
80
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Jan-
11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1
Sep
-11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep
-12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
JPY
Tri
llio
n
BOJ Monetary Base
-100
Jan-
11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1
Oct
-11
Jan-
12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr
-14
Jul-1
4
-3.5-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep
-12
No
v-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
No
v-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
% Y
oY
Total cash Earning Schedule Cash Earning
Jan-
10
Apr-1
0
Jul-1
0
Oct
-10
Jan-
11
Apr-1
1
Jul-1
1
Oct
-11
Jan-
12
Apr-1
2
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr-1
3
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr-1
4
Jul-1
4
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ก��!"#� ��&ก���������&�,:�'���%$�,:��%$1,
ก��!"#� ��&ก��������$&�&�,:�1,$%�&+0�ก�
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
�5/2-��;���ก���&��$&�&�/���/�&��ก���$�$�������
9
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Dec
-13
Jan-
14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Retail Sales Durable Non-Durable Department Store Sales
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-8.0%-7.4%
-6.1%-4.7%
-3.0% -2.7%-3.4%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
�����&�-�ก���&26�����ก��$&�&%�' '���-�44�5,���-�������/$/���&����
ก����������ก ���������� �����ก���������������� ������������������������
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55
60
10
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
Construction Area Permitted
Domestic Cement Sales
Imports of Capital Goods
Domestic Commercial Car
Sales
May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14
-8.0%
-10%
-8%
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14
Source : BOT
40
45
50
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14
BSI BSI-Investment
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ก����(ก��������"��)�������"��*���� ��������+�,�ก(���ก��ก
ก���&26�������++/�,:�,<++$��6�ก��!"#� ��&�)�*�ก�+���%�&,��$,=
40%
60%
80%
100%
11Source: FPO, Prachachart
0%
20%
40%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2014 Total Budget Disbursement Rate
2014 Investment Budget
2013 Investment Budget
2013 Total Budget Disbursement Rate
![Page 12: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052003/6016cddbe735ce7a607c1ff1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
ก��!"#� ��&ก���%&ก$&�&1�%�%$�-�ก
ASEAN 25.1%
EU10.4%
China10.9%
Japan10.1%
USA10.7%
Hong Kong4.8%
Middle East5.2%
Others22.8%
Exports by CountryExports by Product : July 2014
Export Growth by Product
%YoY
Jun-14 Jul-14 YTD
Rice 35.1% 3.2% 11.0%
Rubber -20.9% -23.4% -19.6%
Agro-manufacturing Products -3.1% 3.7% -5.1%
Apparels and Textile Materials 2.5% 1.0% 0.0%
1.9% -1.5% -0.2%
12Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), BOP Basis = Balance of Payment Basis
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
ASEAN EU China Japan USA
May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14
Exports performance by countriesElectronics 1.9% -1.5% -0.2%
Electrical Appliances -0.8% -0.1% 3.9%
Metal & Steel -2.0% -4.5% -19.0%
Automotive 2.6% 9.3% 2.0%
Machinery & Equipment 7.3% 10.5% 9.5%
Jewellery 13.5% -0.5% 4.3%
Chemicals 0.4% -9.1% -7.5%
Petro-chemical Products 9.1% 10.0% 8.5%
Petroleum products 9.6% -7.9% -8.1%
Other Manufacturing products 5.2% 6.8% 7.3%
Exports, f.o.b. (BOP basis) 3.8% -0.5% -0.2%
![Page 13: ก !# ˝ &) * ก€¦ · 25 30 35 40 45 % Fed hike rates probability As of 21 July 2014 As of 1 Aug 2014 As of 8 Aug 2014 As of 14 Aug 2014 ก ˘ˇˆ ˙ ˝ 3 0 5 10 15](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022052003/6016cddbe735ce7a607c1ff1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
BoT ���ก��58 GDP 2014 ���& ' % 2015 ,����������� (unit : %YoY or otherwise indicated)
Forecast for the year 20132013 20142014 20152015
as ofActuaActua
llJunJun��1414 MarMar��1414
JunJun’’1414
MarMar��1414
GDP 2.9 1.5 ���� 2.7 5.5 ���� 4.8
Core inflation 1.0 1.7 ���� 1.5 1.4 ���� 1.3
Headline inflation 2.2 2.6 ���� 2.5 2.5 ���� 2.310
15
20
%YoY
13
Domestic demand 0.2 0.1 ���� 0.6 6.1 ���� 5.3
- Private consumption 0.2 0.2 ���� 0.3 4.7 ���� 4.6
- Private investment -2.8 -2.6 ���� -0.5 11.2 ���� 10.2
- Public consumption 4.9 3.5 ���� 2.9 2.7 ���� 2.4
- Public investment 1.3 1.1 ���� 1.7 9.7 ���� 2.7
Current account ($ bn) -2.8 11.7���� 0.7 1.1 ���� -0.5
- Export of goods -0.2 2.5 ���� 4.5 7.6 ���� 6.5
- Imports of goods -0.4 -1.4 ���� 3.0 9.9 ���� 7.5
- Trade balance ($ bn) n.a. 20.9���� 9.8 9.8 ���� 8.2
-10
-5
0
5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thailand's GDP (%YoY) March projection June projection
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���&�ก�'(�����(��)������)*+,!�
3.40
6.35
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0%
14
-0.50
0.40
2.20
3.40
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E 1Q15E
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Momentum )���� Emerging Market %���:;��(��
-2.10
4.002.95
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E
US
7.40
7.50
7.40
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E
China
15
0.90
0.70
0.90
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E
Eurozone
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E
-0.50
0.40
2.20
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E
Thailand
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�) �������������ก� TIP ���ก?��!���!�'
5.60
6.40 6.406.70
4.07 4.33 4.454.10
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
PhilippinesGDP CPI
5.22 5.125.45 5.49
7.767.09
4.90 5.00
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E
IndonesiaGDP CPI
16-0.50
0.40
2.20
3.90
2.002.47
2.70 2.80
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E
ThailandGDP CPI
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E
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Market expects a hike from BoT by QMarket expects a hike from BoT by Q33//1515
17
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12
13
14
15 Fwd P/E
LT avg. Fwd PER =12.0 Current Fwd PER = 14.4
18
Page 18
8
9
10
11
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
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114.96
16.6%
16.1%16.3% 16.2%
16.0%
17.0%
115.0
116.0
EPS GrowthEPS
19
114.96
114.38
113.79
114.63 114.5215.5%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
112.0
113.0
114.0
-4W -3W -2W -1W 5-Sep
EPS EPS Growth
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2014 consensus still falling - down 2% in August
Consensus EPS and EPS Growth for SET Index
120.00
140.00
160.00SET Index EPS (Bt/sh)
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%SET Index EPS Growth (%)
20
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-142010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015
Source: Bloomberg, KS Research, September 2014
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PER (����A�ก���; ��!���!
14.816.6
19.920
25
PER - 12 Month forward
21
14.8
0
5
10
15
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1,653.10
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22
1,360
1,460
23
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ep
SET Index target Upper bound (+1SD)
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������������� ���#� ��������#$��#�% "��'*���.���'(��ก����ก�� )����� 0 ก�����)�������� ���#��-'�� ��""����)+���-��)"*�-���- +������-��ก���'(�+������-�
�������-�*���.��"�กก�����)������������� ���#�)��+���� 0 2545 @ 31 ก.%. 572546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553 2554 2555 2556 31 ก.ค. 57
หุนไทย น้ํามัน น้ํามัน ทองคํา น้ํามัน พันธบัตรไทย น้ํามัน หุนไทย ทองคํา หุนไทย หุนโลก หุนไทย
116.60% 33.61% 40.48% 23.15% 57.25% 18.82% 103.33% 40.60% 11.65% 35.76% 20.27% 22.07
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116.60% 33.61% 40.48% 23.15% 57.25% 18.82% 103.33% 40.60% 11.65% 35.76% 20.27% 22.07หุนโลก หุนโลก ทองคํา หุนโลก ทองคํา ทองคํา หุนไทย ทองคํา น้ํามัน หุนโลก น้ํามัน ทองคํา32.86% 13.32% 18.04% 18.78% 32.01% 3.95% 63.25% 27.74% 8.15% 13.43% 6.91% 4.92%
ทองคํา ทองคํา หุนโลก พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก หุนโลก น้ํามัน พันธบัตร
ไทย ทองคํา พันธบัตรไทย หุนโลก
18.95% 5.43% 8.80% 5.46% 26.22% 2.63% 32.10% 12.10% 5.60% 8.26% 2.14% 4.57%
เงินฝาก พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก หุนโลก หุนโลก ทองคํา หุนโลก เงินฝาก พันธบัตร
ไทย เงินฝาก พันธบัตรไทย
1.30% 2.86% 6.83% 3.13% 10.03% -43.98% 25.55% 10.42% 2.00% 3.13 2.00% 3.88%
น้ํามัน เงินฝาก เงินฝาก น้ํามัน พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก พันธบัตร
ไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก% หุนไทย น้ํามัน
-0.61% 1.00% 1.22% 0.02% 7.63% -47.56% 0.82% 5.76% -0.72% 2.50% -6.70% 3.25%พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย พันธบัตร
ไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก น้ํามัน Thai Got Bond เงินฝาก หุนโลก น้ํามัน ทองคํา เงินฝาก
-2.47% -13.48% -0.24% -4.75% 2.55% -59.34% -4.18% 1.03% -9.41% -7.08% -27.81% 1.00%
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2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553 2554 2555 2556 31 ก.ค. 57
หุนไทย น้ํามัน น้ํามัน ทองคํา น้ํามัน พันธบัตรไทย น้ํามัน หุนไทย ทองคํา หุนไทย หุนโลก หุนไทย
116.60% 33.61% 40.48% 23.15% 57.25% 18.82% 103.33% 40.60% 11.65% 26.67% 20.27% 22.07%
หุนโลก หุนโลก ทองคํา หุนโลก ทองคํา ทองคํา หุนไทย ทองคํา น้ํามัน ทองคํา น้ํามัน จัดสรรเงินลงทุน
32.86% 13.32% 18.04% 18.78% 32.01% 3.95% 63.25% 27.74% 8.15% 13.12% 6.91% 6.61%*
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32.86% 13.32% 18.04% 18.78% 32.01% 3.95% 63.25% 27.74% 8.15% 13.12% 6.91% 6.61%จัดสรรเงินลงทุน
จัดสรรเงินลงทุน
จัดสรรเงินลงทุน
จัดสรรเงินลงทุน
หุนไทย เงินฝาก จัดสรรเงินลงทุน
จัดสรรเงินลงทุน
พันธบัตรไทย หุนโลก พันธบัตร
ไทย ทองคํา
27.77% 7.12% 12.52% 7.63% 26.22% 2.63% 36.81% 16.28% 5.60% 10.71% 2.14% 4.92%
ทองคํา ทองคํา หุนโลก พันธบัตรไทย
จัดสรรเงินลงทุน
จัดสรรเงินลงทุน
หุนโลก น้ํามัน จัดสรรเงินลงทุน
จัดสรรเงินลงทุน
เงินฝาก หุนโลก
18.95% 5.43% 8.80% 5.46% 22.62% -20.91% 32.10% 12.10% 2.88% 9.33% 2.00% 4.57%
เงินฝาก พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก หุนโลก หุนโลก ทองคํา หุนโลก เงินฝาก เงินฝาก จัดสรรเงิน
ลงทุนพันธบัตรไทย
1.30% 2.86% 6.83% 3.13% 10.03% -43.98% 25.55% 10.42% 2.00% 2.00% -0.53% 3.88%
น้ํามัน เงินฝาก เงินฝาก น้ํามัน พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก พันธบัตร
ไทย หุนไทย พันธบัตรไทย
หุนไทย น้ํามัน
-0.61% 1.00% 1.22% 0.02% 7.63% -47.56% 0.82% 5.76% -0.72% 1.76% -6.70% 3.25%พันธบัตรไทย หุนไทย พันธบัตร
ไทย หุนไทย เงินฝาก น้ํามัน Thai Got Bond เงินฝาก หุนโลก น้ํามัน ทองคํา เงินฝาก
-2.47% -13.48% -0.24% -4.75% 2.55% -59.34% -4.18% 1.03% -9.41% -6.73% -27.81% 1.00%
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วิกฤตหนี้ ทั่วโลก(1 ม.ค. 51-31 ธ.ค. 52)
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หุนทั่วโลก -39.56 118.86 -22.87 64.54 60.72
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