A-2 Population Dynamics Local Con Cross National Study Pop War

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POPULATION DYNAMICS AND LOCAL CONFLICT:

A CROSS NATIONAL STUDY OF POPULATION AND WAR

A Summary

Nazli Choucri

Vassachusetts Institute of Technology

with the assistance of

Lee Otterholt

(This paper, in revised form, will appear as Chapter 8 in Population

Center for International Studies

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Cambridge, Massachusetts

June, 1974



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In t roduc t ion :

There a r e many un cer ta i n t i es concerning th e impl i ca t i ons of popu-

l a t i o n dynamics f o r co nf l i c t and v io len ce among na t ions . The record i s

unc le a r . And de sp i t e some pre l iminar y evidence regarding t he r o le of

dem ogr aph ic f a c t o r s i n c o n t r i b u t in g t o v i o l e n t c o n f l i c t , c o n s id e r a bl e

Iamb igu it ie s remain. The purpose of t h i s paper i s t o (1) s m a r i z e a

c ross-n a t iona l s tudy of t he re l a t io ns hi p between popula t ion dynamics

and v i o l e n t c o n f l i c t i n d ev el op in g a r e a s , (2) p re se n t a p r o f i l e of ba-

s i c p a t t e r n s and a s s o c i a t i o n s , and (3) prov ide some ins i gh t s i n to t he

appare nt l in kag es between demographic f ac t or s , on t h e one hand, and con-

f l i c t be ha vi or , on t h e o t h e r . This s k e l e t a l r e v i e w i s abs t rac ted f rom

a de t a i l e d c ompara tive a na l ys i s o f t h e ro l e o f de mographic fa c to r s i n

45 " th i r d world" co nf l i c t s s i nc e World War 11.~ o g i s t i c a l c o n s tr a i nt s

prevent a d i s cus s ion of each case , and as comprehensive a review of me-

thods , p roce dure . r e su l t s and po l i c y imp l i c a t i ons a s would be de s i ra b l e .

Only t he b roa des t p a t t e r ns a r e de l i ne a t e d .

I n t h i s s t udy , popu la t i on dyna mics re f e r s t o s i z e , c ompos it ion , d i s -

t r i bu t io n , a nd change s i n e ac h , a s w e l l a s more sp e c i f i c popu la ti on va r i -

able s which repr esen t a d i s t i n c t m a n i f es t a t i o n of e ac h of t h e s e f a c t o r s .

' ~ a z l i Choucr i. Popula t ion Dynamics-nd In t e rn a t io na l Vio le nce :

Propo s i t ions , I n s i h t s , and Evidence (M.I.T.: Cente r f o r In te r na t io na l

S tud ie s, A u g u ~ ~

his s tudy i s th e outgrowth of th e M.I.T. Projec t on Popula t ion

Dynamics and Organized Violen ce supp ort ed by a g ra nt from th e Population

Counc i l t o the Cente r fo r In t e r na t i on a l S tudie s , M.I.T. (Grant No. D71 .109~)



For example , segmental d i f fere nces ( ra c i a l , e thnic , re l i g io us or t r i -

b a l d i v is i o n s ) r e p r ese n t d i s t i n c t ch ar ac te r i st ic s of populat ion com-

posi t ion . S imi lar ly , the locat io n of popula t ion in r e l a t ion to na-

t ion al boundar ies , or wi th respect t o some sp a t i a l d el inea t ion , o r

i n terms of t he concent ra t ion of ava i lab le resources, a re d i f fe ren t

manifesta t ions of popula t ion d is t r i bu t io n .

Throughout t h i s stud y w e have adopted an al l- inc lus ive defini-

t ion o f con f l i c t , r anging from overt po l i t i ca l d i sputes wi th v to len t

ove rtone s on th e one hand, to the outb reak of vio len ce and t h e genera-

t ion of cas ual t ies , on th e o ther . Such s i t ua t io ns include wars of na-

t ion a l independence, con f l i c t over na t ion a l in t eg ra t ion , i n t e rna t iona l

c o n f l i c t s , c o n f l i c t s r e su l t i n g from p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y , and d i s t i n c t -

l y po l i t i ca l o r d ip lomatic c on f l i c ts which may erupt in violence.

(1) Violent Confl ict -n Developing Areas

The ext en t and magnitude of vfo len t co nf l i ct i n developing ar eas ,

th e le ve ls of ca su al t ie s generated, and the longstanding ef fe ct s upon

the be l l i ge ren ts ar e of ten underest imated by scholars in t he West. I f

"war" is defined as .an y armed c on fl ic t involving reg ul ar armed force s,

a ce r t ai n degree of organized f ig ht ing , and susta ined vio le nt encoun-

t e r and armed cl ash es, a rece nt s tudy notes th at the re were 93 loc al

'ba r s" in Asia . A fr ic a and La ti n America between 1945 and 1969, none

formal ly declared , wi th a to ta l dura t ion in cumulative terms, of 225

ye ar s and seve n months. Most wars l a s t e d f o r more than one ye ar. On

eac h day throughout th e twenty-five ye ar s between 1945 and 1969 th er e



was an avera ge of 10.22 wars being waged: Not a si n g l e day passed

without w itnessin g a t l e a s t one war somewhere i n t h e developing world.3

Although no prec is e es t imate of t o t a l casu al t ie s i n th ese wars i s

ava i lab le , they ar e measured i n th e tens of mil l io ns .

In a recent s tudy of l oc a l co nf l ic t in the developing world,

Lincoln P. Bloomfield and Amelia C. Leiss a rgue tha t such conf l ic ts

have a common st ru ct u re ; th at they can be separated i n t o sev era l

phases ranging from a pr e-h ost i l i t ie s s tage , t o open h o st i l i t ie s , to

e i t he r the poten t ia l se t tl ement of the d i spute o r the rout in iza t ion

of the co nf l i c t ; and tha t i n each phase ther e are iden t i f ia bl e fac-

to rs which generate pressu res leading t o th e transformation of the

co nf li ct from one phase to the othe r. The authors also argue th at

the na ture of t he co nf l ic t can of ten be s ign if i can t ly a l t e re d by use

of appro priate policy instruments, e i th er by th e pa rti cip an ts them-

selv es, or by ou tsid e mediating fo rces . Their model allows the in-

ve sti ga to r t o ide nt if y the s tr uc tu re and components of a lo ca l con-

f l i c t and t o s ub j e ct i t t o concerted and systematic inqu iry.4

To enhance t h e i r th eo re ti ca l model, Bloomfield and L e i s s com-

3

Istvan Kende, ----*ocal Wars i n As ia Af ric a and La ti n America,1945-1969 (Budapest: Center fo r Af ro-Asian R esearch of t h e Hunga-

ri an Academy of Scie nc es, 1 972 ), p. 113. The average du rat ion of the se

wars was 2 yea rs and nin e months. Most of th es e wars were being.

fought in Asia (29 wars), followed by Latin America (23 wars) andBlack Africa (16 wars).

The intro duc tion of th e Middle East i n this calculus confoundsthese assessments somewhat, in t h a t Kende assi gn s 25 wars t o t h e Mid-

d l e East region, includ ing not only th e numerous Arab-I sraeli con-

f l i c t s , bu t a l so con f l ic t s involv ing the Berbers or the Bedouins in

North Afric a, t h e numerous di spu tes invo lving th e Kurds i n I ra n and

Iraq, and other minor , a lthough vio lent , h o s t i l i t ie s .

%his s tudy i s the f i r s t l a rge-scale and de ta i led ana lys i s of



pi le d evidence on th e st ru ct u re of f if ty -f ou r post World War I1 l oc a l

co nf li ct s. With Robert Be at ti e they have developed a lo gi c system

f o r processing th ese data.5 Outside experts were called upon to code

each con fl ic t both i n terms of th e presence o r absence of various cha-

ra c t e r i s t i c s of such conf l ic t s , and in terms of measures of conflict

i n t e ns i t y . 6 These da ta have been rendered computer-readable, and ar e

cu rre nt ly av ai la bl e on t he time sha ring computer system a t th e Massa-

ch us et ts I n s t i t u t e of Technology. Such codings allow simp le and rapi d

da ta re t r i e va l conce rn ing the cha rac te r i s t i c s of pa r t i cu l a r con f l ic t s ,

Iand a lso com parisons among them. The M.I.T. f i les, known as the

Computer Aided System f o r th e Ana lysi s of Local C onfl ic t (CASCON),

provided th e base fo r our in ve st ig at io ns . However, a l l non-Third

World cas es were excluded and some ad dit ional cas es which seemed par-

t i cu la r ly reveal ing f rom a p o l i t i ca l perspect ive were incorpora ted

i n t o t h e d a ta f i l e s . I n sum, 45 cases were included on th e ba si s of

importance, da ta av ai la bi l i t y , exis tence in th e CASCON f i l e s , o r th e

c o n f l i c t in developing ar ea s. See Lincoln P. B loomfield and Amelia

C. L e i s s . Controll ing= Wars: - Stra tegy--o r th e 1970 's (New

York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1969),p. 15-17.

5 ~ e e incoln P. Bloomfield and Robert Be at ti e, "Computers and

Policymaking: The CASCON Experiment," Journal -f C onflict Resolution,

"o ' " 9(March 19 71 ), pp. 33-46.

6 ~ i t hne or two excep tio ns , th es e 54 cases examined by Bloom-f ie ld and Leiss con s t i tu te a subse t of th e 93 con f l ic t s in Asia, Af-

r i c a and La ti n America, 1945-1969.

IFor related information on methods and procedures see CASCON

Fa cto r CodingForms, Arms Con trol P ro je ct (M.I.T.: Center f o r In te r-na tio na l Stu di es, re vis ed March 1971).

'For summaries of th e p o l i t i c a l is su es in each conf l ic t see



pos s ib i l i t y of re ady i n c l u s ~ o n . ~ o rty of t he se c as es a r e a s ubs et of

th e 93 wars in Asia, Africa and Latin America between 1945 and 1969.10

CASCON was i n i t i a l l y designed a s a computer-based system f o r th e

cross-natio nal comparisons of lo ca l co nf li ct . But i t can a lso be em-

ployed a s an e ar ly warning system fo r det ect ing th e development of con-

f l i c t s i tua t ions based upon pa t te rn recogni t ion , tha t i s , by matching

the ch ar ac ter is t ic s of new ongoing co nf lic ts with those of previous

conf l ic t s scored in the system, i n orde r t o a s sess po ten t ia l conse-

quences. Our obje cti ves i n employing th e CASCON f i l e s i s t o i d e nt i fy

th e demographic ch ar act er is t ic s of vio len t c on fl ict s i n developing

areas by comparing th e ways i n which population f ac to rs af fe ct the in i-

t i a t io n and course of a con f l i c t i n di f f er en t s i tu a t i on s . According-

l y , we have drawn upon the CASCON d a t a f i l e s in or de r t o i nqu ir e i n t o

the demographic roo ts of viol ent co nf li ct s in the developing world.11

Toward this end, we have compiled a detailed historical narra-

t i v e of th e development of each co n fl ic t and developed at t r ib u t e pro-

I r igangi C. Bloomfield, 52 Post-War Conflicts: Brief Summaries, Arms

Control Pr oje ct (M.I.T.: Center fo r In te rn at io na l Stu dies , 1971).

'The co nf li ct between In dia and Pak istan , f o r inst ance , ar e ex-

ce ll en t examples of si tu at io n s i n which demographic fa ct or s were im -

por tant in shaping and conditioning th e nat ure of th e dispute, but

would have involved too much add it io na l coding t o ju st if y th ei r inclu-s ion i n our f i l e s . Table I presents the l i s t of cases inc luded in our

study.''These a re i d e n t i f ie d in Table I below.

l l ~ l t i m a t e l y , i t would be des i r ab le t o enhance the v e r sa t i l i ty of

th e CASCON f i l e s by form ally i nc orp or ati ng th e demographic at t ri b u t e s

of the forty -five cases employed below in t o the ex is ti ng computer-

readable format. This tec hn ica l refinemen t, however, i s an unneces-sary elaboration for our purposes here.



f i l e s of t h e p a r t i e s in quest ion, including data on the dis t r ib ut i on of

knowledge and ski l l s , socio-econumic condit io ns, resourc es avail able ,

and the le ve ls of technology and mi l i t a ry capab i l i ty , as w e l l as demo-

graphic facto rs such as populat ion s iz e , composit ion, d is t r ib ut i on and

change, and th e most d et ai le d es ti ma te s po ss ib le on th e movement of popu-

la ti o n . The demographic da ta w e r e obtaine d from the United Nations -e-

mographic Yearbook (annual s e r ie s ), th e pub lica tion s of t h e Population

Council, and th e annual yearbooks of t he c ou ntr ies i n question (whenever

ava i l ab le ) . 2 It was from these combined historical, socio-economic

and demographic profiles of each con f l ic t th at the basi c da ta fo r exam-

ining the ways i n which population va r iab les af fe ct th e nature , outbreak,

and course of lo ca l co nf l ic ts i n developing area s w e r e obtained. De-

ta i l ed cas e stud ies were thus developed which have al lowed f or a syste-

matic assessment of the ro le of indi vidu al populat ion var iab les i n each

of the 45 co nf l ic t s , th ei r proximity t o the outbreak of v iolence, and

their impact upon subsequent A list of these con f l i c t s

i s presented i n Table I.

(2) The Role of Population i n Con flict S itu ati on s-A recent survey of th e l i t e r a t u r e on population dynamics and vio-

le n t con f l ic ts c i te d above yielded few empir ical ly ver i f ia bl e proposi-

t ions, and l i t t l e cle ar evidence, concerning the s pe ci f ic l inkages be-

12see als o th e References below.

1 3 ~ri ef no te on methods and procedures i s presente d in Section 3

below.



Table I *-

Local Conflicts in Developing Areas:

List of Cases

1. Aden (1963-67) : South Yemen's struggle for self-determination

2. Algeria (1954-62) : war for independence from the French

black African struggle to end white

Portuguese domination

**4. Arab-Israeli War (June 1967) : the "Six-Day War"

5. Arab-Israeli War (October 1973): the"Yom

Kippur"War op~amaded'war

6. Bahrain (1970) : conflict over Persian claim to Bahrain

7. Bay of Pigs (1961) : attempted invasion of Cuba by U.S.-trained

Cuban emigres

8. Bollvia (1967): Che Guevara's attempts to promote insurrectio

***9. Ceylon (1971) : most violent outbreak of continuing

political unrest

10. Congo (Katanga, 1960-63): conflict among rival foreign-supported

factions for control of central government

11. Cyprus (Enosis, 1954-59) : agitation for and resistance to political

union with Greece

12. Cyprus (Communal, 1963- ) : continuinq hostility between Turkish- andGreek- Cy~riot ommunities

13. Dominican Republic (1965): U.S. intervention in Santo Domingo

14. Dominican Republic-Haiti (1963): agitation over Dominican immigration

policies

15. Ecuador-U.S.A. (1963- ) : dispute w e r fishing rights

16. El Salvador-Honduras (1969): violent nationalistic rivalry precipatedby a riot at a soccer match

17. Guatemala (1954): U.S. intervention to overthrow leftist

government

18. Guyana-Venezuela (1962-70): attempt by Venezuela to take over vastarea of Guyanan territory



Table I (Continued)--

Indonesia (West I r ia n , 1957-62): s t ru gg le to e l i min ate l a s t pocket of

Dutch control

Iraq (Kurds, 1958-63) : demand f o r p o l i t i c a l autonomy by

Ku rd i sh t r ib es

Iraq-Kuwait (1961-63): di sp ut e over I r a q i claim t o Kuwait

Kenya (1964- ) :

Laos (1959-62) :

Lebanon (1957-58) :

t r i b a l war fare p ro tes t in g dominance of

Kikuya t r ibe

st ru gg le t o check communist c on tr ol of

b o rd e r a r eas

U.S. i n t e r v e n t i o n i n i n t e r n a l p o l i t i c a l

d i s p u t e

Malayan Emergency (1948-60): con tin uin g communist g u e r r i l l a a c t i v i t i e s

Malaysia-Indonesia (1963-65) : Indonesia suppor t f o r gu er r i l l a a c t i v i t y

i n M al ay si a

Morocco-Algeria (1962-63) : co nf l i c t over Moroccan c la im t o Alger ian

t e r r i t o r y

Morocco-Mauritania (1957-70): c o n fl i c t over Moroccan d e s i re t o annex

p a r t of Mau r i t an ia

Morocco-Spain (1956- ) : c o n fl i c t over Moroccan demand th at Spain

r e l i n q u i s h h e r Af ri ca n t e r r i t o r i e s

Muscat and Oman (1957- ) : p o l i t i c o - r e l i g i o u s c i v i l war

Nicaragua-Costa Rica (1955-56): c la s s i c borde r c on fl ic t

Nicaragua-Honduras (1957-60): c l a s s i c borde r c o n fl i c t

Nigeria-Bi af r a (1967-70) : war t o end Biaf ran success ion

Palestine (1947-49) : war between the Jewish and Arab over new

J e w i s h s t a t e

Panama (1964) : r i o t s over U.S. co nt rol of Canal Zone

Rhodesia (1968-70) : st ru gg le by blacks t o end whit e dominance

Rwanda-Burundi (1959-72) : g e n oc i d al t r i b a l w ar f ar e

Sinai (1956) : I s r a e l i a t t a c k , c o or d in a te d w i t h B r i t i s h -

French at ta ck on Suez

Somalia-Ethiopia-Kenya (1960-64): Somali demand f o r Pan-Somali s t a t e

40. South Tyrol (1957-69): vi ol en t co nf l i ct between I t a l i a n and

German ethnic groups



Table I (Continued)--

41. Suez (1956) :

42. Syri a-Turkey (1956-57) :

43; Ulster (1969- ) :

44. Ven ezue la (1960-63):

45 . Yemen (1962-69):

B r it ish -Fren ch a t t a ck to r e - e s t ab l i sh

co n t ro l o v e r Suez Canal

border conf ron ta t ion i n con tex t of Cold

War

te r r o r i s t v io len ce between Pro te s t a n t sand Catho l ics

l e f t i s t - o r i e n t e d u rb an r i o t s

overthrow of monarchical government

*Th e Ara b-I sra el war ( ~ c t o b e r 973), Ceylon (1971), and Kenya (1964- ) were

no t pa r t of t he or ig in al CASCON f i l e s , bu t were developed sp ec if ic al ly fo r

th i s s tu d y . With th e exc ept ion of Bahra in (1970). Panama (1964), South Tyr ol

(1957-1969). Ar ab -I sr ae l (1973) and U l s t e r (1969- ) , t he se c o n f l i c t s a r e a l l

inc lud ed i n th e 93 wars examined by Kende (1969) i n t he s tudy noted above.

**The f i v e wars between Arabs and I s r a e l i s -- i n 1 96 8, 1956 (Suez and Sinai),

1967, and 1973 - hough stemming from the same underl ying di sp ut e, a r e i n

f a c t d i f f e r e n t i n many ways. For t h i s r ea so n , w e t reat them a s f i v e d i s t i n c t

c o n f l i c t s .

***Ceylon i s now known as S r i Lanka.



tween population and violence, although it is p o s s ib l e t o i d e n t i f y i n a

ge ne ra l manner some of t h e ways in which population variables affect po-

l i t i c a l outcomes. However, this much i s c l ea r : the role which popula-

t ion f ac to r s p lay in a c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n i s i n t r i c a t e and complex, and

i s almost always sub ject t o gre at var iat ion . In some cases, population

var iab les p rov ide th e parameters of a s i tuat ion, and def ine the context

wi th in which a co nf l i c t unfo lds, o r d i c t a t e the form tha t i t might take.

In such inst anc es, population amounts t o a contex tual f ac to r which shapes

and cons t r a ins the in te rac t ions o f t he par t i es and d ic ta tes the bounds

of pe rmissib le behavior. In other cases , where th is context i s already

se t , popula tion f ac to r s p rov ide a mu l t ip l i e r e f f e c t upon a con f l i c t by

exace rbating th e pre-ex isting form o r mode. In such cases, th e major

ro le of populat ion i s the in te ns i f i c a t i on o f s e t pa t t e rns and the aggra-

vat ion of exis t in g cleavages or d isputes . In s t i l l othe r inst anc es, po-

pu la ti on may ac t as a va ria ble . when i t might i t se l f change in the course

of a co nf l ic t or , a l t ern at i ve ly , cause a change i n the nature of the

conf l i c t .

These dis t i nc t io ns a re f a r from prec ise , but they can be useful

conceptua l gu ide l ines fo r assess ing th e ro le o f populat ion i n con f l i c t

s i t ua t io ns and f or providing some ins igh ts in to the nature of a con-

f l i c t and i t s development over time. It i s i mp or tant t o r ea l i z e t h a t ,

d urin g t h e i n i t i a l s t ages of a co n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n , p o pu la ti on f ac t o r s

might yield the bas ic parameter s, bu t opera te as a mu l t ip l i e r as the

co nf li ct progre sses, and then perhaps even as a vari able . For example,

t h e A r ab -I sr ae li co n f l i c t s a r e a c l a s s i ca l i l l u s t r a t i o n o f t h e ways i n

which the r o le of population va ria ble s can change as a co nf l ic t pro-



gresses and as t he antag onists assume new at tr ib u te s and ch ara cte ris t ic s.4

The large sc al e migration of Jews i n to th e Middle East during th e f i r s t

pa r t of the twent ie th century was a c ruc ia l var iabl ein

shaping the na-

tu r e of th e subsequent con fron tatio n between the migrants and th e na ti ve

population in 1948. Over th e ye ars , t h i s va ri ab le became a ba si c para-

m e t e r in th e co nf lic t , by con solidatin g the l in es of cleavage and pro-

viding t he context w i t h i n which subsequent polit ical disputes were un-

dertaken. The migratio n f ac to r had e ff ec ti ve ly transformed th e demogra-

phic cha r ac te r i s t i c s of t he reg ion , and d i f fe ren t ia l s in popula t ion s ize

provide a la rg e ly inv ar iab le context fo r t he ensuing wars -- in 1956,

1966 and 1973. These changes al so re f l e c t t he time perspec tive of the

c onf l i c t . o f ten fac tor s tha t in th e sh o rt run may be regarded as fi xed

parameters w i l l , i n the long run, b ecme va r iab les i n the s i tu a t ion .

The Ara b-Is rael i case i s a dramatic example of such changing dynamics.

But i t i s not an iso la t ed case. There are many conf l ic t s i tu a t i on s i n

which demographic fac tor s a re c r i t i c a l i n shaping th e l i ne s of cleavage.

These d if fe re n t ro le s of populatio n fa ct or s may thus be summarized:

Population i s a parameter in a con f l ic t s i t ua t ion when i t provides

the context of the co nf l ic t and therefore dic ta t es the form that the con-

f l i c t w i l l take. Thus, population s i z e might functio n as a parameter

when i t genera tes rac ia l tens ions , r e s u l t i ng in segmental conflict , as

was the case wit h t he Nigerian c i v i l war (1967-1970), o r with the do-

mestic disturbances in Kenya (1964- ) . And, populationdistr ibution

might be a parameter of a c on fl ic t s i t ua ti o n when, fo r example, t r i b a l

a l legiance crosses na t ional boundar ies , re sul t in g poss ib le in border

co nf li ct s . as was the case in t h e Somalia-Ethiopia-Kenya di sp ut e (1960-1964).



Population provides a mu l t i p l i er e f f ec t in a c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n

when i t exacerbates the form which i s a l r eady set. For example, popu-

l a t i o n s i z e a c t s as a mul t ip l i e r by in t ens i fy ing the e f f ec t s o f migra-

tio n. Composition becomes a m u lt ip li e r when i t exacerbates economic

or other competi t ions in a soc ie ty . And population di s tr ib u ti o n may

p ro v id e a m u l t i p l i e r e f f e c t i f i t i n t ens i f i e s mig ra t ion , con t r ibu tes

t o, o r i n t e n s i f ie s , p o l i t i c a l h o s t i l i t i e s , as was t he case in the "soc-

1.cer war" between E l Salvador and Honduras (July 1969).

Population is a v a r i a b l e in a c o n f l i c t i f it changes in the course

of a c o n f l i c t o r , a l t e r n a ti v e l y , i f i t changes the na tur e of a conf l ic t ,

For example, populat ion s i z e might change through a t t r i t i o n or migration.

Population composition may change through genocide o r a ss im ila tio n, or

through the accomodation o r ne ga ti on of s egme ntal demands. The con-

f l i c t between t h e T ut s i and Hutu i n Rwanda and Burundi (1959-1972) il-

l u s tr a t e s thes e complex dynamics. And d is tr ib ut io n may be a va ri ab le

in a c o n f li c t s i t u a t i o n i f i t changes through migrat ion o r th e discovery

of new reso urc es . The c o n f l i c t between Morocco and Ma ur ita ni a (1957-

1970) i s an example of the cr i t ic a l i t y of resources in a seemingly minor

dispute.

Assessing th e ro le of popula t ion var iab les in c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s

becomes incr ea sin gl y complex, f i r s t when t he ef fe c ts of indi vidu al popu-

l a t i o n v a r i a b l e s su ch as popula t ion s ize , d is t r ibut ion , composi t ion ,

and change are taken in to account, and then as measures of i nt en si ty

are added t o th e an alysis .



( 3 ) Methodological-ote: - Procedure for EvaluatFng the Role--of Population Fn Conf l i c t S i tua t ions- -

A four-sta ge coding procedure was employed to determine t h e rol e

of population va ria ble s in co n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s .

F i r s t : An i n i t i a l , b u t s t r u c t u r ed , pro be i n t o t h e n a t u re of

each conf l ic t and the ways in which population var iab les have affec ted

th e in i t i a t i o n and conduct of bell i gere ncy was undertaken, dire cted by

a series of queries. These quer ies were r a i s ed t o as s i s t i n iden t i fy -

ing the inf luence of the population var iables , in terms of size, change,

composition, and di st ri bu ti on , and were designed t o provide a system atic

data base upon which fu rth er in ve sti ga tio ns could be predicated as follows:

With respe ct t o populat ion-i z e :

(1) Does absol ute population le ve l , i n terms of th e she er weight

of numbers, con tr ibu te to a group's vio len t behavior?

( 2 ) Does t he p res su re of numbers upon re sou rce s i nc re as e propen-

s i t i e s tovrard violence?

With respec t t o populatio n change:

(1) Does a high abs olute r a t e of growth co ntr ibute t o in ter nal

v io lence o r ex te rna l conf l i c t ?

(2) Do d if fe re n ti a l ra te s of growth between competing population

grou ps ag gr av a te p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y ?

With respec t t o population composition:

(1) Does an imbalance between t h e numbers of males and females

aggrava te a co nf l i c t s i tu a t i on ?

(2) Does the age s t ru ct ur e of t he be l l ig ere nts inf luence theb

outbreak of t he co nf l i ct or the conduct of th e disput e?



(3) Do segmental diff ere nce s play a r o le in t h e i n i t i a t i o n and

development of the c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n ?

(4) Doesth e

l e v e l , t yp e, o r d i f f e r e n t i a lin

knowledge andsk i l l s

of various groups ( t ha t is, t h e i r te ch no lo gy ) i n f l u en ce t h e i n i t i a t i o n ,

conduct o r outcome of th e co nfl ic t?

With respect to populat ion di s t r ibu t io n:

(1) Does th e conc entrati on of population ( in terms of absolute

and rel a t iv e lev el s of densi ty) c ont r ibu te to tensions, and eventually

t o c o n f l i c t ?

(2) Does the sp a t i a l l o ca t i o n o f p o pu la ti on i n r e l a t i o n t o r e-

sources amount t o a dominant determinant of co nf li ct ?

(3) Does th e sp at ia l locat ion of populat ion in r e l a t i o n t o na-

t i on al borders amount t o an important fa ct or in t h e i n i t i a t i o n of t he

con£ ic t?

(4) Does t he in te rn al or e xte rna l migrat ion of s ig nif ica nt numbers

of population lead t o in s ta b il i t y , tensi-ons, and even tually overt vio-

lence?

(5) Do rura l/urb an differe nce s in th e populat ion s t ru ctur es of

t h e b e l l i g e r en t s s i g n i f i c an t l y a f f e c t t h e i n i t i a t i o n , conduct o r ter-

mination of a co nfl ic t?

Second: Each of th ese qu est ion s was then placed i n t he context

of th e thre e poss ible ( though not mutually exclusive) rol es th at popu-

l a t i o n f ac t o r s might a ssume i n c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s , a l t e r n a t i v e l y a s

a parameter, mulx ip l i e r e f f e c t o r var i ab le . T h i s d i f f e r en t i a t i o n t h u s

allowed fo r a more sp ec if ic coding of th e r ol e of population.

Third: A measure of magnitude o r degree of i n te ns it y was int ro -



duced in to each of t he preceding assessments . Ind iv id ua l popula tion-

re l a t e d f a c t o r s we re c oded i n t e rms o f one of s i x o rd ina l mea sure s:

(0) a ppre c i a b l e i n f lue nc e , (1 ) bac kground s ign i f i c a nc e , (2)-inor

i r r i t a n t , (3) i r r i t a n t , ( 4 ) f en t r a l importance , o r (5)-o l e

de te rminant . These measures ind ic a t e th e ex ten t t o which popula t ion

fa c to rs can expla in t he de te rm inants , cour se , conduc t , and conc lusion

of a co nf l ic t . They a r e des igned to form an or di na l sc a l e the under-

lying dimension of which i s t he p rope ns i ty fo r v io l e nc e . The ore t i c a l

a mbigu it i e s i nvo lve d i n me asur ing v io l e nc e no t e d i n t h e su rvey c i t e d

i n t he In t rod uc t ion a r e fu r t he r compounded by se e k ing t o i d e n t i fy p ro -

p e n s i t i e s f o r vi o l e n ce , n o n e t h el e s s t h i s o r d i n a l s c a l e a pp ea re d b ot h

i n t e r n a l l y c o n s i s t e n t and r e l i a b l e a m ea su re o f t h e t h e o r e t i c a l d imen-

s i o n i n q u es ti o n. An i n qu i ry i n t o in te r- co d er r e l i a b i l i t y f u r t h e r re-

i n fo r c e d our c onf idenc e i n t h i s me thodo log ica l a pproac h: The coding rules

were a s fo l l ows :

A popul at ion f ac to r was coded as a-o l e de te rmina n t of t he c onf l i c t

i f an a d eq u at e ex p l a n at i o n of h o s t i l i t i e s c o ul d b e o b t a in e d w i t h r e f e r -

ence only t o demographic var iab les . A popul a t ion fa c t or was coded a s

be ing o f c e n t r a l Impor ta nce i f t h e c o nf l i c t would p robab ly no t ha ve

broke n ou t ha d th a t f a c t o r no t bee n p re se n t . The d i f f e r en ce between t he

codings of-inor and i r r i t a n t was mainly one of degree: A demo-

g r a p h i c f a c t o r was coded a s be i ng a mi no r i r r i t a n t i f , t ho ug h d e f i n i t e l y

p r e s e n t a n d s a l i e n t , i t appeared t o have only low-level impact on, o r

s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r , t h e c o n f l i c t . A major i r r i t a n t code was employed i f



t h e p o p u l at i o n - re l a t ed f a c t o r i n q u e s t i on was a p p r e ci a b l y g r e a t e r ,

a l though th e c on f l ic t would probably have broken out even wi tho ut

i t s i n f l u e n c e . A demographic v ar ia bl e was coded as be ing of back-

ground importance when major int er ve ni ng processes appeared t o be

a t work , s e pa ra t i ng popu la t i on va r i a b l e s a nd ove r t v io l e nc e t hrough

a series of me d ia t i ng fa c to r s .

Four th : From the se sp ec i f ic codings, we then a t tempted t o es t i -

mate the importance and r o le of the fou r genera l popula t ion fa c to rs

(s iz e . change, composi t ion , and d i s t r i bu t i on ) and th e ov er a l l impor-

tance of demographic variables i n t h e c o n f l i c t . F o r example. i f t h e

loc a t ion o f popu la ti on i n r e l a t i o n t o re sourc e s was c oded a s be ing o f

c e n t r a l im po rt an ce i n t h e c o n f l i c t , b u t , a t t h e same ti me , no o t h e r d i s -

t r i b u t i o n f a c t o r s we re s a l i e n t , t h e i mp or ta nc e o f p o p u la t io n d i s t r i b u t i o n

as a gener a l popula t ion fa c t or would be d iscounted and coded a s a major

i r r i t a n t . By th e same token, i f p opu lat i on composi t ion appeared t o be

th e only popul a t ion fa c t or of any importance , th e es t imat e of the over-

a l l i mp or ta nc e of p o pu la ti on f a c t o r s i n a p a r t i c u l a r c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n

would be downgraded. I f , however, a l l th e major popul at ion va ri abl es

were viewed as m aj or i r r i t a n t s , t h e o v e r a l l r a t i n g s a s si gn ed t o each

va r ia ble would be regarded as cumula t ive and in te ra c t iv e , and gene ra l

fac tor scores inc remented accordingly . Thus, es t i mat ing t he importance

of t he ge ne ra l popu la ti on va r i a b l e s depende d on the nmb e r o f s pe c i f i c

popu lat i on - rel a t ed fa c to r s i n e ac h c a se , a nd the re l a t i ve impor ta nc e o f

each. On bal ance , we sys tem ati cal ly i ntr odu ced a downward b ia s i nt o

th e codings tending t o underes t imate t o some exte nt th e r o l e of demo-

graphi c f ac to rs a s a means of counte r ing any under ly ing tendency



t o overemphasize th e ro le o f popula tion va r i ab les i n loca l c onf l i c t s .

Overal l , this four-stage procedure provided an an al yt ic al screen

through which th e demographic, h is t o r ic a l , economic, p o l i t i c a l and so-

c io log ica l da ta on each of the fo r ty - f ive loc a l con f l i c t s i n develop ing

a r e a s w e r e processed. It must be recognized that t h i s method of anal-

ysis , though systemat ic , i s based essential ly on the requirements and

limitations of both conceptual framework and empirical data. Others

might pre fer a l te rn at iv e procedures . None theles s, any mode of in qu ir y

is equ ally dependent on both theory and data. The inf er en ce s w e draw

ar e s t r i c t l y confined t o the da ta base and mode of analys is , and our

conclusions must be viewed accord ingly. But, a high degree of in te rn al

consistency has been re tain ed across c ase s, and th e ana lysi s has been

grounded i n a sound the ore t ic a l ra t io nale . In these two respec ts a t

l e a s t , what may appear as an ar b i t r ar y procedure i s , i n f a c t , in accor-

dance with bas ic t ene t s of s oc ia l sc i ence inqu iry .

(4) p r o f i l e of Populat ion Factors i n Local Conf l ic ts

An i n i t i a l mapping of the demographic pr of i le s of the for ty- f ive

c o n f l i c t s l i s t e d i n T ab le I i nd ica tes tha t popula tion va ri ab les d id

p la y some c r i t i c a l r o l e i n t h i rt y - ei g h t. Of these , population va ria ble s

appear t o have been& etermiaants of v io len t con f l i c t in four cases:

Ceylon's internal co nf l i ct (1971), th e Nigeria-Biafra c i v i l war (1967-70).

th e Pa les t in e war (1947-49), and the Si na iw ar (1956).

Addi t ional ly , popula tion var iab les appeared t o be of c e n t r a l &-

por tance in eleven conf l ic ts : t h e Al ge ria n war of independence (1954-621,

Angola's st ru gg le again st Portuguese colonial is m (1961) , he Arab-Israeli



w a r of 1973, communal conflicts in Cyprus (1963- ) , t h e ~l Salvador-

Honduras "soccer war" (1969), th e co nf l i ct over ~ nd on es ia 's claim t o

West Irian (1957-62) , domestic c o nf li c t i n Kenya (1964- ) , the Malayan

Emergency concerning Communist insurgents (1948-60) , h e Malaysian-

Indones ian co nfr ont ati on (1963-65), th e Rhodesian s i tu a t i o n (1968-70).

and t h e bo rd er c o n f l i c t among Somalia, E th io pi a, and Kenya (1960-64).

I n ten cases popula tion var ia bles appeared t o be amajor i r r i t a n t

i n t h e c o n f l i c t s i t u a t io n : th e 1967 Arab-Israel iwar , t h e c r i s i s i n t he

Foneo (1960-63). the s t rug g le over inde~endence n Cyprus (1954-59),

the Kurdi sh ag i t a t io ns i n I r aq (1958-63). t h e in t e rn a l po l i t i ca l prob-

lems i n Laos (1959-62), t h e Morocco-Algeria bord er c o n f l ic t (1962-63),

the Morocco-Mauritania di sp ut e (1957-70), th e co nf li c ts between T ut si

and Hutu t r i b e s i n Rwanda and Burundi (1959-72), th e c on fl ic t between

Germans and It a l i a n s i n South Ty rol (1957-69). and th e outbreak of vio-

14

len ce between Pr ote sta nts and Cathol ics in Ulster (1969- ).

Populat ion va r iabl es appeared t o be minor i r r i t a n t s in seven of

the t h i r ty - e igh t conf l i c t s : Aden's na ti o na l movement which re su lt ed

in the cr eat io n of th e Peoples ' Re pu bl ic of South Yemen (1963-67), t h e

Dominican Republ ic's co nf li c t wi th Ha i ti (1963), the t e r r i t o r i a l c o n -

f l i c t between Guyana and Venezuela (1962-70), in t e r n a l p o l i t i c a l con-

f l i c t in Lebanon (1957-58), t h e c la she s between Morocco and Spa in over

Spanish-held t e r r i t o r i e s contiguous to Morocco (1956- ) , colonial con-

f l i c t s involv ing th e int eg ra ti on of Muscat and Oman (1957- ) , and the

14Although South 5 r o l and Ulster a re not developing areas , thesetwo con f l i c ts involved i ss ues of nat i on al in t egr a t i on and w e r e s t ructu-

r a l ly s imi l a r enough t o conf l i c t s in developing areas to warrant inclu-

s i o n i n t h i s a n a ly s i s.



c i v i war i n Yemen (1962-69).iIn s i x of the thi r ty- e ight cases popula t ion fac t ors appeared to

s igni f icance i n th e development of th e con fl ic t: t he

(1961), Che Guevara's ag i ta t i o n i n Bo li vi a (1967).

problems, culminating in U.S. in te rvent ion , in

(19651, t h e Eduador-U.S.A. "tuna wa r " (1963- ) ,

ove r Suez (19561, and t h e Venezuelan revolu-

A mor d et ai le d assessment of key cas es i s presented in the l a rge r s tudyi

inf luence

over

(1954),

Kuwait

ragua

Honduras

Zone

War

t o

of w ch th i s present paper i s a summary, along w i t h a c loser look a t

t he %gr aphi c s t r uc tu r e o f po l i t i c a l c on f l i c t s and the ro le of a l t e r -

na t i v popula t ion var iables . A t this point, however, i t must be empha-

In only seven cases did population variables have no appreciable

on th e development or conduct of th e co nf li ct : th e dispute

'3ah rain1 s independence (1970), t he U.S. supp orted coup i n Guatemala

the conflict between Iraq and Kuwait over the independence of

(1961-63), th e con fl ic t between th e p o l i t i ca l lead ers of Nica-

and Cost a Rica (1955-561, t he bo rder w a r between Nicaragua and

(1957-60), th e r i o t s over t h e sov ere ign ty of t h e Panama Canal

:1964), and th e co n f l i ct between Syr ia and Turkey inv olvi ng Cold

r.-valries (1956-57).

Despite th is cursory mapping, i t is s u r p r i s i ng t o no t e t h e e x te n t

wk.ch demographic f a c to r s were present i n the Third World conflicts.

t h a t ' t h e l inkages between popula tion fac t ors on the one hand,

on th e other a r e complex, in te ra ct iv e, and mutually rein-



-0m

a

-



ined. In only one case (Egypt be fo re th e October 1973 war) was a s t a t e

a b l e t o al ter i t s growth r a te s ign i f i can t ly . Our case s of l o c a l con-

f l i c t s t r e t c h b ack t o 1948: It i s only recently that consciousness of

a population problem has increased and policy measures designed to

a ff e ct a s oc iet y 's demographic c ha ra ct er is t ic s have become more sophis-

t ic ate d. Kowever, str on g sources of re si st an ce s t i l l remain. Popu-

la t i on change appeared most of te n ( i n th e th i r t ee n cases) as a multi-

p l i e r of the conf l i c t , usua lly exacerba ting the e f f e c t s of s i ze . L e s s

of ten ( in f iv e cases) , change alone was su f f ic ie nt t o set th e parameters

of the conf l i c t .

Third: Population di s t r ib ut io n appears to be most susce pt ib le to

var ia t ion over the cour se of a co nf l i c t (in nine cases). Populations

generally move in r e la t ion to r esource ava i l ab i l i t y , which t ends to

vary with changes in demands, d h co v e ri e s , new technologie s o r wi th

t h e movement of peop le as such. These va ri at io ns can have important

impacts on the na tu re o f a conf l i c t . The di s t r ib ut io n of populat ion

may also be an important mu l t i p l ie r upon a c on f l i c t (n ineteen cases) ,

general ly in th e di r ec t io n of re inforcing segmental d i f ference s. But

d i s t r ibu t ion on ly in f r equen t ly sets the s t ag e fo r a co nf l i c t by emerg-

i ng as an impor tant parameter of th e s i tu at io n (here , in only seven

cases) .

Fourth: Population camp6sit ion also frequently appears to set

th e parameters of c on f l ic t s i tu at i on s. The importance of composition

as a con tex tua l f ac to r (.in e igh teen cases) can be a t t r ibu ted l a rge ly

t o t h e f a ct that ethn ic considerat ions of te n tend t o provide the para-

meters of a c o n f l i c t s i t u a t io n . A t t h e same time, however, composLtion



also emerges as having a s t rong m ul t ip l ier ef fe ct upon an ongoing con-

f l i c t ( t w e l v e ca se s ) . A s wit h population si ze , composition displays

co ns i de r ab l e i n v a r i ab i l i t y -- i t has changed in only two c as es once a

conf l ic t has a l ready erupted. In oth er words, s i z e and composition do

not generally emerge as var iab les in a co nf l i c t s i tua t ion : They s e t

the s t age and poss ib ly in te ns i fy the ho s t i l i t i e s , b u t they do no t ge-

ne ral ly change the natu re of the c on f l i c t , nor a re they appreciably

af fec ted in the cou rse of h o s t i l i t i e s .

Population s iz e , change, d is tr ib ut io n and composit ion ar e all

l inked in complex ways. An ex p l i c i t cons idera t ion o f these l inkages

may l ead t o a more comprehensive pe rs pe ct iv e upon th e development of

population pol ic i es , and possibly s t rengthen th e case fo r populat ion

control general ly . But i t i s i m po rt an t t o r e ca l l t h a t co n t ro l o ve r

popula tion s i ze has e f f e c t s in th e long term, whereas c o n fl ic t manage-

ment g eneral ly demands t ha t gre ate r a t t ent ion b e paid t o fa ctor s which

can b e manipulated more immediately.

A more de tai led assessment of th e ro le of t he population fact ors

i d e n t i f i e d in t h e q ue r ie s f o r t h e f i r s t s t a g e of this ana lys i s i s pre-

sented in Table III, w h e r e th e magnitude of th e demographic infl uen ces

is ta ke ni nt o account . Table 1x1 there fore no t only ind ic at es how oft en

sp ec i f i c population fa cto rs come in to play, but a lso provides an assess-

ment of the ex te nt of impact in each case. This t ab le r e in forces the

general inferences drawn from Table 11. Not only do population dis-

tr ib u ti o n and composition emerge more fre qu en tl y as de termina nts of con-

f l i c t s in developing areas , bu t they ar e a lso of grea ter s ignif ica nce.



Table 111- - *The Importance of Demographic Facto rs i n Viol ent c on fl ic ts

1Back- 2 3 4 5 Weighted

ground Minor Major Cen tra l Sol e Tot al Average ,*Factor I r r i ta n t I r r i t a n t Importance Determinant Cases Descr ip tor

POPULATION SIZE3 ***

15 1 2 1 23 2.23

Absolute Population Level 8 4 2 2-

16 1.89

Population Pressure on 1 8 7

Resources .POPULATION CHANGE 8 6 5 - - 19 1.84

Absolute Rate of Growth 10 10 3 2 - 25 1.88Di ffe ren t Rates of Growth 3 5 1 - - 9 1.77

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION 7 10 1 3 5 - 35 2.46

RuralIUrban Di st r ib uti on 3 10 3 - - 16 2.00

Population Density 2 3 2 - - 7 2.00

Sp at ia l Location i n Re- 34

8 3-

18 2.61la t i o n to R es ou rces

Sp at ia l Locat ion i n Re- 4 5 4 2 - 15 2.27

l a t i o n t o B o rd er s

population Movement 11 6 8 5 - 30 2.23

POPULATION COMPOSITION l' 6 11 1 3 . 1 32 3.22

Sex D i s t r i b u t i o n 2 2 - - - 4 1.50

Age Structure 3 3 4 - - 10 2.10

Segmental Divis ions 2 1 10 12 6 31 3.61

Level of Knowledge and

S ki l ls (Technology) 4 9 10 3 - 26 2.46



Table I11 (Continued)--*Ent r ie s a re th e number of cases i n which the f ac t or l i s te d on the l e f t played a ro le of t he magnitude

l i s t e d a bove .

**These numbers a re pure ly des c r i p t i ve s in ce they t r ea t an ordin a l sca le a s i f i t were a ra t io

sca le . They ind ica t e the average in ten s i t y of each fa c to r ' s inf luence . The we ighted average desc r ip tor

(W.A.) i s a functi on of th e frequency of case s times the in te ns i t y of inf luen ce of demographic fa ct or s

i n a conf l ic t s i t ua t ion , d iv ided by the number of cases i n ques t ion . Thus W.A. = z(number of cas es of

p a r t i c u l a r i n t e n s i t y * l e v e l of i n t e n s i t y ) / t o t a l number of cases. Thus W.A. range = 0.0 - 5.0.

***The number of cas es l i s t ed fo r spe ci fi c var iab les wit hin each popul at ion category does not sum

t o t h e number of c as es l i s t e d f o r eac h ge ne ral f a c t o r (SIZE, CHANGE, DISTRIBUTION, COMPOSITION) beca use

general f ac to rs may be composed of seve ral sp ec if ic var iab les . The decis ion ru le was to obtai n a case-

spe c i f ic coding be fore under taking a c ross na t iona l comparison. The a l t e rn a t i ve procedure , to obta in

a gener al fa ct or coding from th e sum of s pe ci fi c va ri ab le codes, would have produced an in fl a t io na ry

ef fe c t by overemphas izing the ro le of demographic fac to rs i n con f l ic t s i tua t io ns .



Looking more c lo se ly a t t he i nd iv id ua l popu la t i on - re l a t ed va r i ab l es i n t he

s i z e c a t e g o r y , we f i n d t h a t a b s o l u t e p o p ul a t io n level emerges as a low l ev el

i n f l uence upon co n f l i c t behav io r , ope ra t i ng i n s i x t ee n cases wi th a we ight ed

average de sc r i p t or (wA) '~ of 1 .89 . But by f a r the more pronounced e f f e c t th a t

s i z e a p pe a rs t o h av e upon a c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n i s i n t erms of p ress ure on resourc es

The average magnitude of pr es su re s of numbers re sou rc es (WA = 2.68) was

second only t o segmental d if fe re nc es (WA = 3 .61 ) , and only these two fac tors

a cc ou nte d f o r a t l e a s t o ne c o n f l i c t i n i t s e n t i r e t y .

I n terms of po pula t ion change, th e abso lu te r a t e of growth of a popula t ion

i s usua l l y more impor tan t t o t h e deve lopmen t o f a c on f l i c t t han any d i f f e r en t i a l s

between popu lat i ons. Absolute growth was an importa nt va ri ab le i n twenty-five

c o n f l i c t s (WA = 1.88) i n comparison with ni ne ca ses (WA = 1.77 ) f o r d i f f e r e n t i a l s

i n r a t e s o f g rowth.

.Comparing the re s u l t s f o r popula t ion le ve l and r a t e of growth , we f in d th a t

a l though both ope ra te a t a low lev el o f in f lu enc e , r a t e of growth emerges as

a s ig n i f i ca n t fa c t or i n many more case s ( twenty-five cases compared to s ix te en ) .

T h i s d i f f e r e n c e i s ce r t a i n l y co ns i s te n t wi th the convent ional wisdom: Often

i t i s not so much the la rg e number of people t h a t p roduces ten s io ns , a s a h igh

r a t e o f i n c r e a s e o c c as io n in g i m e d i a t e d i s l o c a t i o n s and i n s t a b i l i t i e s . N e it he r

s i z e no r change i s , i n i t s e l f , a s u f f i c i e n t de te rm in an t of c o n f l i c t b eh av io r;

th e demands genera ted by each can be duly accommodated i f s u f f i c ie n t resou rce s

a r e ava i l a b l e t o be marsha led toward t h a t end . I t i s only when both th e

le ve l and r a t e of growth p lac e insurmountable press ures upon resourc es t h a t

1 5 ~ h e eighted Average De sc rip tor (WA) i s a measure of th e inf lue nc e of

-de mogra ph ic f a c t o r s i n a c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n . F or a n e x p l a n a t i o n and d e s c r i p t i o n

s e e t h e n o t e s t o T a b le 111.



t h e g r e a t e s t d i s l o c a t i o n s a r e l i k e l y t o o cc ur .

In sum, s i z e and change fa c t o r s a r e seldom of more tha n background

s ign i f i canc e , because th e i r e f f e c t s a r e long te rm and ind i r e c t ; any p ressu res

generated by th es e two demographic fa ct or s a r e l i k e l y t o manifest them-

selv es through o ther popula t ion var iab les . For example , s i z e fa c t or s may be

the long- term parameters of a c on f l ic t , and ba si c h o s t i l i t i e s may be ex-

acerbated by popula t ion change, bu t when t he co nf l i c t b reaks out it i s most

l i ke ly t o t ake the form of h o s t i l i t i e s between segmental g roups o r a d i spu te

o ve r t e r r i t o r i a l b ou nd ar ie s.

With r e s p e c t t o p o p ul a t io n d i s t r i b u t i o n v a r i a b l e s , t h e r u r a l l u r b a n

d i s t r ib u t i on appea red t o be of on ly mino r s ign i f i ca nce , func t ion ing

i n s ix t een cases wi th an ave rage importance (WA = 2.00). Popula t ion d ens i t y

appeared to be even l e s s r e l e v a n t , p l a yi n g a r o l e i n o nl y s ev e n c a s es

(WA = 2.00). This co nt ra di ct io n of the conventional wisdom re in fo rc es

the conc lusion p resen ted above, th a t d ens i ty pe r s e i s seldom of im porta nce:

i t i s the concentra t ion and locat ion o f popu la t ion r e la t ion r e sou rces

th at may be conducive t o v io lence , as it was i n e igh t een of the cases

i n t h i s s tudy (Wa = 2.61). The l o c a t i o n o f ~ o p u l a t i o n r e l a t i o n

na t ion a l borde r s a l so appea red to be of s l i gh t l y g rea t e r than ave rage

importance , be ing a fa c t or i n f i f t e e n cases . Popula t ion movement, a l though

having a comparable importance (WA = 2.23) p la ye d a r o l e i n t h i r t y

cased (second i n number only t o e t hn ic d i f fe ren ces ) . This f ind ingi s

highl y s i gn if ic an t , f o r migra t ion may of t en become a comer-s tone of

d e l i b e r a t e p u b l i c p o l ic y . The frequency with which population movements

h av e l e d t o , o r a gg ra v at e d, c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s i n d i c a t e s t h e p o t e n t i a l pe-



r i l s of such po l i c ies .

With res pec t t o population composition, th e numerical balance

between--a l e s and females had t h e sma lle st im pact, play ing a background

ro le i n two cases and act ing a s a minor i r r i t a n t i n two more. The age

s t r u c t u r e of the population appeared t o be of only s l i gh tl y gre ate r im-

portance, emerging i n ten cases, but never c r i t ic a l l y . Segmental dif-

ferences in a so cie ty appeared t o be th e most pot ent ia l l y explosive of

th e populat ion-rela ted fa ct or s , emerging as an important determinant of

co nf l ic t i n th i r ty-one cases. Fur ther , when i t does become salient it

i s usual ly a t l e as t of major impor tance; six cases can be explained en-

t i r e l y in terms of such divis ions . Fina l ly , a general ly l w --ev e l of

kndwledge-nd ski l l s , o r d i f f e r e n t i a l s in the level between competing

pa r t i es , appeared to have an important ef fe ct on co nf l ic t s i tua t ion s,

appearing t o be of aome importance in twenty-six cases. The sp ec if ic

casesin

each category of influe nce as codedin

Table111

a r e l i s t e d

in t h e Appendix.

It s t i l l remains for us to confront further evidence regarding

the re la tio ns hi p between r a t e of pop ulation change and i t s c r i t i c a l i t y

i n a c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n . We have found a s t a t i s t i ca l l y s ign i f i c an t ,

po si t iv e co rre la t io n between r a te of population in cre ase and th e mag-

n i t u d e o r i n t en s i t y o f i t s in f luence upon a con f l i c t s i tua t ion : The

higher th e ra te of growth, the more sa l i en t a f ac to r populat ion increase

appears to be in th e development of c on fl ic t and violence. In view of

this lar gel y unequivocal f inding , TableIV presen ts th e raw data on ra te s

of growth, on th e one hand, and on magnitudes of in fl ue nc e upon a con-

f l i c t s i t u a t i o n , on t h e o t h er , in addi t ion to the average ra te of change



Table IV--ates of Population Change*

No Influence Background Factor Minor IrritantMajor

Irritant

Central Sole

Importance Determinant

Rate 0.5 Cyprus

of

Change** 0.8 Ulster

1.6 Iraq

1.6 Iraq-Kuwait

(5.5)

1.6 Yemen

2.1 Angola

2.1 Bay of Pigs

2.2 Congo

2.5 Lebanon

2.6 Bolivia

2.8 Guatemala

2.9 Laos

3.0 Syria-Turkey

(3.0)

3.2 Aden

3.3 Bahrain

3.3 Panama

0.5 Cyprus

2.7 Israel-Arab (1973)

(2.1)

2.7 Malaya

2.9 Somalia-Ethiopia-

Kenya

3.0 Morocco-Alperia

(2.5)

3.0 Morocco-Mauritania

(2.2)

3.4 Ecuador

3.4 Nicaragua-Costa Rica

(4.1)

3.4 Nicaragua-Honduras(2.5)

3.5 Venezuela-Guyana

(3.1)

3.6 Dominican Republic

2.0 Haiti-Dominican Rep 3.0 Ceylon 2.4 Indonesia -(3.6)

3.3 Kenya 2.4 Indonesia-

2.5 Algeria (2.7) Malaysia3.4 El Salvador-

2.5 Nigeria-Biafra Honduras

2.5 Suez

(3.5)

3.0 Morocco-Spain

(1.6)

3.5 Sinai

3.5 Rhodesia

3.6 Israel-Arab (1967)

(2.8)

3.6 Venezuela

3.8 Rwanda-Burundi

(2.3)

3.8 Palestine

Average 2.26 2.92

Range 0.5-3.3 0.5-3.6



au

-M

'z

s

-ea

q13u%

Ks

sa

aos

3p

l0a

ups

'Ks

8T

- -Ke

s

-q$

Xae

a

q$a

a

u0up

-m

ap

-

saMqp



resources -- in t h i s rough order of importance - l l appear t o be im-

por tan t c on t r ibu to r s t o con f l i c t and v io lence . The percep tion of th e

p a r t i c i p an t s i n these conf l i c t s does no t r e f l e c t these general pa t t e rns ,

although the impact of segmental di ff er en ce s i s often recognized as a

po ten t ia l source of tensions and s t ra in s . These broad re su l ts a lso

rei nfo rce our e a r l i e r observation concerning the udsplaced emphasis

on populat ion s i z e prevalent in both popular and academic c ir cl e s; the

importance of size in the development of a co nf l i c t s i tu at io n pales in

comparison with these other population variables.

These inferences and observations, though s t i l l l a r g e l y sk e l e t a l ,

provide some i n i t i a l ins igh t in to the impor tance of popula tion vari ab les

i n co nf lic t si t ua tio ns . Elsewhere we look more close ly a t th e demo-

graph ic s t r uc t u re of p o l i t i c a l co nf l i c t s by focus ing on a l t e r na t iv e

types of co nf l ic ts and observing the s pe ci f i c ro l e of populat ion var i -

ab l e s in each. In th e absence o f de ta i l ed case s tu d ies , the genera l

pa t t e rns de l inea ted in th is paper remain in th e nat ure of hypotheses.

Considerable evidence need y et b e put fo r th befo re t he assoc iat ions

noted above can be viewed as ind ica tio n of cau sal l inkages.16

1 6 ~ h e e t a i l ed su p po rt in g an a l y s i s i s presen ted i n Par t 11: "ACross-National Study," i n th e book ve rsi on of Population D namics pJInte rnat iona l Violence: Insi ghts-nd Evidence Lexington,

'Mass.: Lexin gton Books, i n pr es s

-7-



Appendix

Th i s Appendix i de n t i f i e s t he i n d iv idua l cases coded i n Tabl e 111

a bov e n o t i n g t h e i n f l u e n c e o f s p e c i f i c p op u l a t io n v a r i a b l e s i n t h e de-

velopment of lo c a l co nf l i c t s . The format f o r th i s Appendix i s i d e n t i -

c a l t o t h a t of T ab le 111. F or each popu l a t i on f ac to r -- s i z e , c m p o -

s i t i o n , d i s t r i b u t i o n and change -- w e i d e n t i f y t h e s p e c i f i c c a s e s w ith -

i n each ca t ego ry of i n f l ue nce -- ranging f rom no appr eciab le in f lue nce

on con f l i c t , on t he one hand , t o so l e det e rminant , on t he o the r . The

o rd ina l s ca l e r anges f rom (0) deno t ing no app rec i ab l e i n f l uence , t o

(1) background impor tance , through (2 ) m in or i r r i t a n t , (3 ) m aj or i r r i t a n t ,

(4) ce nt ra l impor tance , and (5) s o l e d e te r m in a n t. T h i s s c a l e must b e

viewed as an approximate measure of th e infl ue nc e of demographic fa ct or s

in l e a d i n g t o p r o p e n s i t i e s f o r v i o le n c e. I n t h i s r eg a r d, i t provides

some i m p o r t a n t = r e g a r d in g t h e r o l e o f p o p u l a ti o n v a r i a b l e s i n con-

f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s and t h e r e l a t i v e i mp ac t of e a ch s p e c i f i c de mo gra phic

va r i a b l e . The cavea t s and qu a l i f i ca t i o ns no t ed i n t h e t e x t mus t be t aken

in to accoun t when v iewing t h e r e su l t s o f ou r ana l ys i s .



-27-

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