Your Right, "Summon a Wizard" is in here!

When was the When was the last time that last time that was updated?was updated?

Upgraded SLOSHNew inundation ModelingUniform Behavioral AnalysisConsistent MethodologyNew Mapping TechnologyNew Transportation Modeling

LIDARDemographic and Land Use AnalysisCritical Facilities Inventory Regional Evacuation Transportation Network AnalysesDefinition of relevant termsDelineation of the five surge zones (1-5) and five evacuation zones (A-E)Evacuation transportation analysisClearance and Evacuation Times

Light Detection and Ranging

LiDAR Sea, Lake, Overland Surge from Hurricanes

SLOSH Models

Regional Evacuation Studies

AnalysesVulnerabilityBehavioralDemographicsTransportation

Storm Surge Zones

Data ProcessingDevelopment for SLOSH

NOAA MDL & NHC

LIDAR collected in coastal counties

SLOSH Model updated

Basin updated with LIDAR topography

Datum updated to NAVD88More than 130,000 hypothetical storms modeled statewide with varying forward speed, size and astronomical tideMuch higher SLOSH grid resolutionTwice as accurate elevation data in SLOSH (5 ft digital elevation model cells vs. 10 ft or greater previously)

Comparison of SLOSH Grids

Previous SLOSH Basin (1991)

2009 SLOSH Basin

The New ArcGIS 9.3 User Interface………….

Processing is 90% automatedComputers 6X Faster than 3years ago (on average)Allows for more analysisCreates new options in decision making

14New Surge Zones

• Don’t expect new zones to compare to old zones – underlying elevation and higher resolution of grids may result in very different zones.

• View new zones over new contours ASAP. This usually calms your initial reaction, as you see how closely the zones follow these improved contours.

The Result From the Surge Inundation Model

The Result From a Surge Model Run:

Typical Storm Tide Atlas Page

The SLOSH is run by the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Prediction Laboratory in Miami, they work with the National Meteorological Data Laboratory in Washington DC NOAA headquarters, to finalize the Data and cross check the results. The LiDAR was collected by a series of professional firms and delivered to FDEM, a contractor conductedquality control and verified the data meet the standards established by the program. Then SLOSH and LiDAR Digital Elevation Model Data are then combined in the SIM (the Surge Inundation Model), the results are reviewed by the FDEM and checked to ensure they meet the standards established by the program. The SIM data is then processed through the Mapbook extension and we apply the template developed by Delta State University which aligns it into the geospatial National Grid, the outputs are then hand checked against the grid for alignment. This produces the final product that is reviewed and accepted by the FDEM as complete.

What is SIM/Mapbook Extension and how it works (in layperson terms)Outputs of SIM/Mapbook Extension and what they are used forSIM margin for adverse deviationDifference between storm surge and storm surge inundationDifference between evacuation zones and storm surge inundation limitsWhy change from NGVD 29 to NAVD 88. Practical implications.Why it is crucial to know the datum when reading and comparing inundation or elevation mapsNew “alpha” designations for evacuation zonesWhat is an inundation depth chart/map and its uses

21Understanding of Risk

These ranges are not fixed.

Evacuation zones are the most usedProduct of an Evacuation Study.

Surge Zones are used as a basis to delineate those Evacuation ZonesSurge zones Tool allows a scientific and reproducible method to create inundationGIS can cut the time to end product

Surge Zones and Evacuation ZonesSurge Zones and Evacuation Zones

Transportation Interface for

Modeling Evacuations – TIME

TIME will allow Growth Management and Emergency Management planners to

develop multiple scenarios and re-run each to determine the impacts of

transportation plans and future growth on clearance times.

Terms Definitions – Statutory terms and Emergency Management terms.

Surge Inundation Model

A tool that utilizes LiDAR and SLOSH data to determine surge inundation zones,

which are used to create County evacuation zones.

Clearance Time to ShelterIn-County Clearance Time Out of County Clearance TimeRegional Clearance Time

New Tool to Measure ImpactsNew Tool to Measure Impacts

Built on the Cube Voyager & Cube Avenue software, the Transportation Interface for Modeling Evacuations (TIME) is the tool used to run future scenarios.

Impacts of population growthRoadway improvements/modificationsChanges in behavioral assumptionsAdjacent counties (not included)Reverse laning

28

New Clearance Times – 2010New Clearance Times – 2010

Nassau Evacuation Rates Nassau Evacuation Rates (%)(%) Storm Threat ScenarioStorm Threat Scenario

Cat Cat 11

Cat 2Cat 2 Cat 3Cat 3 Cat 4Cat 4 Cat 5Cat 5

Level A Surge Evacuation Level A Surge Evacuation ZoneZone 6565 7575 8585 9595 100100

Level B Surge Evacuation Level B Surge Evacuation ZoneZone 6565 7070 8585 9595 9595

Level C Surge Evacuation Level C Surge Evacuation ZoneZone 6060 7070 8080 9090 9595

Level D Surge Evacuation Level D Surge Evacuation ZoneZone 6060 7070 8080 9090 9090

Level E Surge Evacuation Level E Surge Evacuation ZoneZone 6060 7070 8080 8585 9090

Inland of Surge ZonesInland of Surge Zones 5555 6060 8080 8585 9090

Evacuation Planning is undergoing a significant change:

Population increasesCommunication evolutionStorm Categories redefinition

Zones:Storm SurgeEvacuation A, B, C, D, E,…

Scenario Based Decision Making:Need scenario based clearance timesNeed vulnerability scenariosNeed situational forecasting

Why did the NHC decouple storm surge from Saffir-Simpon Scale?Factors that affect storm surge?What is MOM?What is MEOW?What is included in NHC Advisory/NWS Local Statement?What is Probabilistic Storm Surge?The case for adhering to the Storm Surge Decision Support Wedge

Jeffrey Alexander, Directorjalexander@nefrc.org Northeast Florida Regional CouncilSRESP Statewide Coordinator904 279-0885 ext 134