8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5...
Transcript of 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5...
![Page 1: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Spatial change and transport in Gauteng: Observations from the Quality of Life Survey
Christina Culwick, Gauteng City-Region Observatory
Southern African Transport Conference
8 July 2019
![Page 2: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Gauteng City-Region Observatory
GCRO helps to build the knowledge base that government, business, labour, civil society and
residents all need to shape appropriate strategies that will advance a competitive, integrated,
sustainable and inclusive Gauteng City-Region.
![Page 3: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Growth dynamicsPopulation dynamics
5.86.6
1.1
2.7
10.3
3.5
12.3
4.05.4
6.37.0
1.2
2.8
11.1
3.7
13.4
4.35.8
8
7
43
8
7
9
7 7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
% in
crease in p
opu
lationPop
ula
tion
(m
illio
ns)
2011 2016 Percentage increase
![Page 4: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Population dynamicsUrbanisation – the South African story
• It is not simply that the urban population is growing in proportional terms,
• The rural population is declining in absolute terms
• Important to understand that this does not necessarily mean cities being flooded with rural migrants (e.g. many new urban settlements are in the heart of rural areas)
The image part with relationship ID rId3 was not found in the file.
![Page 5: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Population dynamicsGauteng’s population growth
• Gauteng’s population estimated at 14.7 million
• From 2017-2018 it grew by approx. 400 000
• This is 8 000 / week
• ± 1.8million every five years
![Page 6: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
https://pudding.cool/2018/10/city_3d/
![Page 7: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Urban growth in the Gauteng City-Region: 1994-2013Spatial impact of population growth
![Page 8: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Intensification nodesForms of urban development
![Page 9: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
New developmentsForms of urban development
![Page 10: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Contrasting developmentsForms of urban development
![Page 11: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Urban expansionForms of urban development
![Page 12: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Complexes and estatesForms of urban development
![Page 14: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Wilgeheuwel: 2000Contextualising urban dynamics
![Page 16: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Wilgeheuwel: 2006Contextualising urban dynamics
![Page 17: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Diepsloot: 2000Contextualising urban dynamics
![Page 19: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Diepsloot: 2009Contextualising urban dynamics
![Page 20: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Quality of Life survey insights
C.Culwick
![Page 23: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
5 836Start: 31 Aug ‘09 End: 8 Oct ‘09
16 729Start: 15 Aug ‘11 End: 15 Dec ‘11
27 490Start: 9 Sep ‘13 End: 17 Mar ‘14
30 002Start: 15 Jul ‘15 End: 15 May ‘16
24 889Start: 31 Oct ‘17 End: 7 Sep ‘18
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
. . . . .
Gauteng
Overview of the GCRO’s Quality of Life surveyThe evolution of the QoL survey
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
![Page 24: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Transport dynamics
![Page 26: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
36%
9%
5%
33%
2% 2%
12%
34%
8%5%
27%
2% 2%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
To go to work To look forwork
To go towhere I study
Shopping Takingchildren to
school
Leisure /entertainment
Other purpose
2015/16
2017/18
QoL IV (2015/16) & QoL V (2017/18)Purpose of most frequent trip
![Page 27: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
QoL V (2017/18)Time to work
13% 17% 17% 18%30%
18%28%
15% 20% 16%
35% 32% 29% 29%
38%
35%
41%
29%35%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
16 to 30 mins
Up to 15 mins
![Page 28: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
![Page 30: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Trip duration by wardQoL III (2013)
![Page 31: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Public transport accessITMP25; Census 2011
![Page 32: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
QoL V (2017/18)Longest mode of most frequent trip
6
37
46
35 2 2 Walk
Private vehicle
Taxi
Train
BRT (Rea Vaya /Areyeng)Other bus
Other taxi
Other
![Page 33: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
QoL IV (2017/18)
Dominant mode by ward
![Page 34: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
QoL V (2017/18)Satisfaction with longest transport mode
20
30
14
9
45
25
18
15
57
63
64
45
48
61
62
65
8
4
9
11
5
5
10
9
11
2
11
23
3
6
9
8
5
1
3
11
2
2
2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Walk
Private vehicle
Taxi
Train
Gautrain
ReaVaya/ A re yeng
Other bus
Other taxi
Very satisfied Satisfied Neither Dissatisfied Very dissatisfied
![Page 35: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
QoL V (2017/18)Satisfaction with public transport by ward
![Page 36: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
QoL V (2017/18)Public transport improvement by ward
![Page 37: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
• Gauteng growing fastest in terms of population and urban development
• Spatial implication of growth – residential growth NB
• General trend of long trips to work and to look for work remains entrenched
• Cars & taxis dominant modes of transport
• Satisfaction differs significantly by mode, with lowest satisfaction with trains
• Pockets of improvement in public transport
• Prominence of taxis and cars, particularly in areas of growth indicates poor public transport development to meet growing needs
SummarySpatial change and transport
![Page 38: 8 July 2019 - SATC · 2020-05-08 · Growth dynamics Population dynamics 5.8 6.6 1.1 2.7 10.3 3.5 12.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.2 2.8 11.1 3.7 13.4 4.3 5.8 8 7 4 3 8 7 9 7 7 0 1 2 3 4 5](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022042306/5ed2a2509b198705ff7160ae/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
GCRO+27 11 717 [email protected]
ADDRESS6th Floor University Corner11 Jorissen StreetBraamfonteinJohannesburgGautengSouth Africa
POSTAL ADDRESSGCROPrivate Bag 3Wits2050
Thank You
CHRISTINA CULWICK+27 11 717 [email protected]