7th October 2010 energynetworks.org •1

PRESENTED BY Andrew Pace, WSC CHAIR

Workstream C

Long Term Products

Common Methodology Group Work

energynetworks.org 2

WorkStream C – CDCM (1)

• Reviewing User Guide• Agreeing detail on CDCM inputs

• Frequency of update• Time period over which inputs are derived• Some data will be smoothed over 3 years:

• Load Factors• Coincidence Factors• Peaking Probabilities• Split of rate 1 & 2 units by distribution time band

• Notice period for changing timebands• Ensuring DNOs are using common assumptions

• CDCM Methodology that is currently in the user guide will be put into DCUSA and become subject to open governance.

7th October 2010

energynetworks.org 3

WorkStream C – CDCM (2)

• CDCM Annual Review Pack• Produce 5 year of CDCM inputs• DNOs to provide commentary and

assumptions behind the CDCM inputs• To highlight any changes timebands• Suppliers to produce tariffs• To be issued in December 2010

7th October 2010

WorkStream C – EDCM (1)

• EDCM Volatility Analysis produced for September 2010. – on ENA website • Based on LRIC/FCP version used for notional

Sep submission (not expected to change)• Based on Demand Scaling option 25 used for

notional Sep submission (currently on option 30)

47th October 2010

WorkStream C – EDCM (2)

EDCM Volatility Analysis:

• Marginal Charges Volatility• LRIC / FCP Base Case• LRIC / FCP High/ Lo scenarios (+/-3% load data)

• Demand Scaling Volatility• Addition of 3 demand customers of different

sizes• Addition of typical generator

57th October 2010

WorkStream C – EDCM (3)

EDCM Volatility Analysis: • 7 prices produced for each customer• Data summarised by DNO and on a national

basis.• Analysis consisted of:

• average % impact on charges• No. of customers experience price disturbance

with different % bands• Average impact for groups of customers.

67th October 2010

WorkStream C – EDCM (4)

77th October 2010

Average impact – Demand Customers

Base case 0.0%

All loads up 3 per cent 0.4%

All loads down 3 per cent -2.4%

Dummy demand customer 1 - Large user -1.6%

Dummy demand customer 2 - Medium user -0.3%

Dummy demand customer 3 - Small user 0.0%

Dummy generator - Medium size 0.0%

WorkStream C – Next Steps

• EDCM• Continue to undertake further volatility analysis

• CDCM• Finalise annual review pack• Determine DCUSA change mods and submit to

COG subgroup• Update and issue user manual

87th October 2010