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128 7. Strategic Research Portfolio: Improved Management of Water Resources in Major Agricultural River Basins Our vision: equitable sharing of water for agricultural and environmental purposes Our vision is better and more equitable sharing of water and land resources worldwide. We see river basins in which flows are managed to minimize the impacts of rainfall variability; where agricultural productivity, livelihoods, water quality and ecosystem services are protected through reduced land degradation, control of erosion and pollution. Similarly, we see governance and institutional arrangements that protect access to land and water resources for the poor and which recognize the importance of ecosystem services to agriculture, other water consumers and the environment. 7.1. The compelling need for this research As populations grow and incomes rise, resulting in more demand for staple foods and water‐ intensive high‐value food products, the demand for water increases. Non‐agricultural water needs increase similarly, while some water must be reserved to maintain essential freshwater ecosystem services. Approximately 3 billion people experience various forms of water scarcity already (CA, 2007), and in the 2050 world of 9 billion people, water scarcity may become the unpleasant ‘norm.’ The magnitude, type and extent of scarcity vary across river basins. Some basins are closed and water is over‐allocated (physical water scarcity). Others are open with relatively abundant water resources that can be (but are not yet) harnessed through improved infrastructure (economic water scarcity). In some, institutions limit access to certain groups and exclude others (institutional water scarcity). Land degradation reduces agricultural system productivity, threatens livelihoods, jeopardizes ecosystem services and reduces water quality – exacerbating the effects of water scarcity. Climate change, combined with land degradation and water scarcity, causes greater spatial and temporal variability in water availability, thereby increasing risk and reducing resilience. This variability of an already scarce resource is the major natural issue for agricultural water and overall water resources management in all areas with physical water scarcity (Figure 1.4 on page 19). 7.2. Building on a solid research foundation Previous basins‐related research has been significant. Examples of previous research on river basins are given below (see Appendix 1b for details on the research foundation of water scarcity). Open and closed basins Seckler (1996) introduced the ‘basin view’ into agricultural water management. Subsequent studies examined various stages of basin water resources development up to water ‘reallocation’ at the time of ‘basin closure,’ introduced basin water accounting procedures and the use of remote
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7. StrategicResearchPortfolio:ImprovedManagementofWaterResourcesinMajorAgriculturalRiverBasins
Ourvision:equitablesharingofwaterforagriculturalandenvironmentalpurposes
Ourvisionisbetterandmoreequitablesharingofwaterandlandresourcesworldwide.Weseeriverbasinsinwhichflowsaremanagedtominimizetheimpactsofrainfallvariability;whereagriculturalproductivity,livelihoods,waterqualityandecosystemservicesareprotectedthroughreducedlanddegradation,controloferosionandpollution.Similarly,weseegovernanceandinstitutionalarrangementsthatprotectaccesstolandandwaterresourcesforthepoorandwhichrecognizetheimportanceofecosystemservicestoagriculture,otherwaterconsumersandtheenvironment.
7.1. ThecompellingneedforthisresearchAspopulationsgrowandincomesrise,resultinginmoredemandforstaplefoodsandwater‐intensivehigh‐valuefoodproducts,thedemandforwaterincreases.Non‐agriculturalwaterneedsincreasesimilarly,whilesomewatermustbereservedtomaintainessentialfreshwaterecosystemservices.Approximately3billionpeopleexperiencevariousformsofwaterscarcityalready(CA,2007),andinthe2050worldof9billionpeople,waterscarcitymaybecometheunpleasant‘norm.’Themagnitude,typeandextentofscarcityvaryacrossriverbasins.Somebasinsareclosedandwaterisover‐allocated(physicalwaterscarcity).Othersareopenwithrelativelyabundantwaterresourcesthatcanbe(butarenotyet)harnessedthroughimprovedinfrastructure(economicwaterscarcity).Insome,institutionslimitaccesstocertaingroupsandexcludeothers(institutionalwaterscarcity).Landdegradationreducesagriculturalsystemproductivity,threatenslivelihoods,jeopardizesecosystemservicesandreduceswaterquality–exacerbatingtheeffectsofwaterscarcity.Climatechange,combinedwithlanddegradationandwaterscarcity,causesgreaterspatialandtemporalvariabilityinwateravailability,therebyincreasingriskandreducingresilience.Thisvariabilityofanalreadyscarceresourceisthemajornaturalissueforagriculturalwaterandoverallwaterresourcesmanagementinallareaswithphysicalwaterscarcity(Figure1.4onpage19).7.2. BuildingonasolidresearchfoundationPreviousbasins‐relatedresearchhasbeensignificant.Examplesofpreviousresearchonriverbasinsaregivenbelow(seeAppendix1bfordetailsontheresearchfoundationofwaterscarcity).OpenandclosedbasinsSeckler(1996)introducedthe‘basinview’intoagriculturalwatermanagement.Subsequentstudiesexaminedvariousstagesofbasinwaterresourcesdevelopmentuptowater‘reallocation’atthetimeof‘basinclosure,’introducedbasinwateraccountingproceduresandtheuseofremote
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sensingandmodelingtoolsforintegratedassessmentofwateravailabilityandaccess(Kelleretal.,1996;Seckleretal.,1998;Molden,1997;KiteandDroogers2000;Molle,2003).Theconceptsofclosedbasinsandglobalwaterscarcityhadsignificantimpactworldwideandwerefurtherillustratedinindividualbasinsglobally:diagnosingcasesofphysicalandeconomicwaterscarcity,exploringthesocietalfactorsleadingtobasinclosure,examiningfuturescenariosofwateravailabilitywithin‐builtenvironmentalwaterallocations,andexploringbothdriversofchangeonbasinwaterresourcesandtheresponseoptionsinthefaceofwaterscarcity(Amarasingheetal.,2004,2008;Biggsetal.,2007;GiordanoandVilholth2007;McCartneyandArranz2007;Venotetal,(2008);CA,2007;Smakhtinetal.,2004;MolleandWester,2009).WaterstorageKelleretal.,(2000)formulatedthemainprinciplesofsustainablewaterstoragedevelopment.IWMIhassubsequentlyrecommendedthatallformsofwaterstorageincluding–largedams,throughsmallreservoirs,rainwaterharvesting,groundwaterandconjunctiveuseofwetlands–shouldbeconsideredinthedevelopmentoflocallyappropriatesolutionstoprovideinsuranceagainstdroughtandrainfallvariability(McCartneyandSmakhtin,2010).TradeoffsatbasinlevelMolle(2003),Molleetal.(2005);Ringler(2001),Caietal.(2003),Smakhtinetal.(2007)andmanyothershaveexploredtradeoffsandwater‐allocationscenariosamongvariousbasinwaterusers.AdaptiveriverbasinmanagementLankfordetal.(2007)formulatedanadaptiveframeworkforriverbasinmanagementindevelopingcountries,andSadoffandGrey(2002)developedtheconceptofbenefit‐sharinginriverbasinmanagement.WateranddevelopmentchallengesRecentCPWFresearch,throughanumberofbasinfocalprojects(Cooketal.,2009),identifiedarangeofdevelopmentchallengesinseveraloftheworld’slargestriverbasins.Theyfoundthatimprovedwaterproductivitywasoftenthebasisofeconomicdevelopment,butanalysisofbasinconditionsshowsacomplexdynamicbetweendevelopmentprocessesandthenaturalresourcestheyconsume.Thisdynamiccanpushriverbasins,orpartsofthem,beyondthelevelatwhichecosystemservicesofwaterprovision,foodproduction,energyandotherscanbedeliveredsustainably.Thisraisesproblemsofpotentialconflictoverlimitedresourcesamongcommunitieswithinriverbasins.Analternativesituationoccurswhenresourcesareeffectivelyunderdeveloped.Insuchcases,povertyisassociatedwithlowproductivityoflandandwater.
7.3. ThecompellingrolefortheCGIARRiverbasinmanagementindevelopingcountriesisgenerallyinitsinfancy.TheCGIARcanmustertherangeofdisciplinaryapproachesandhastheabilitytointegratetheseinawaythathasnotyetbeenachievedbynationalinstitutionsthattendtofocusonindividualissues.TheCGIARcanalsohelpfledglingriverbasinauthoritiescompiledataandinformationvitaltoevidence‐based
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decision‐makingandwaterallocationprocedures.Thisisregionallycriticalgiventhesignificantnumberoftransboundaryriverbasins.TheCGIARhasexperienceinbasin‐,sub‐basin‐andlandscape‐levelinnovationsinlandandwatermanagement(notjustplot‐andfarm‐levelinnovations);intheintroductionofbenefit‐sharingmechanismsthatfeaturenegotiationsamongupstreamanddownstreamwaterusers;andinanticipatingandmeasuringthewhole‐basin,cross‐scaleconsequences–includingconsequencesforecosystemservices–ofmodificationsinwaterallocationandlandscapemanagement.Furthermore,theCGIARcandrawlessonsfromgovernanceandmanagementapproachesinbasinsindevelopedandemergingeconomies(e.g.theColoradointheUnitedStatesandMexico,theYellowRiverinChina,andtheMurray‐DarlinginAustralia)andcontributeknowledgeofwhatelementsmightbesuccessfullytransferredtoourtargetbasins.Finally,thestronglinkagesdevelopingbetweenCRP5andtheCRP7(Climatechangeforagricultureandfoodsecurity)givestheCGIARacriticalabilitytolinkclimatechangepredictionstoestimationsofwateravailability,variabilityandhowthesewillaffectbasinwaterresourcesandtheirallocation.ThisSRPwillbuildontheworkoftheCPWFanditspartners.Weaimtofurtherdeveloptheparadigmsforriverbasinmanagementandexplorehowimprovedandbetterintegratedinformationwillprovidepolicymakerswithcompellingevidenceonwhichtobasebasindevelopmentandmanagementdecisions.Werecognizethepoliticalissuesassociatedinland‐andwater‐useplanningandthetradeoffsthatcomeintoplaywhenpowerdevelopmentispittedagainstagricultureandtheenvironment.However,wealsorecognize,basedonpreviousIWMIandCPWFwork,thatcleversolutionscanbefoundtooptimizeresourceuse,andthatwateralsohastobeviewedinthecontextofgeneraldevelopmentissuesratherthaninisolation.Successfulexamplesofpreviousworkinclude‘waterbanking’intheFerghanaValleyinCentralAsia(capturingofhydropowerwaterreleasesinwinterandstoringtheminaquifersforsubsequentsummerirrigation),multipleusesystemsinsouthernAfrica,paymentforenvironmentalservicesinSouthAmericanAndesgroupofbasins,andinnovativerice–shrimpsystemstocopewithincreasingsalinityinpartsoftheMekongDeltainVietnam.Similarly,CRP5willbegintoaddresssomeofthebasindevelopmentchallengesdescribedbyCooketal.(2009).7.4. ThescopeanddepthoftheopportunityGiventheincreasingpressureonwaterandlandresourcessomesignificantproblemsmustbeovercome.Forexample:• Waterscarcity
Theoftenpreferredresponsetowaterscarcityistoimproveorincreasewatersupply.Thedevelopmentofnewsupplysources(bothconventionalandunconventional)isoftenconstrainedbythecostandarangeofhydrological,socialandpoliticalrisks,whichnegativelyaffectthelivelihoodsofthepoor(WorldCommissiononDams,2000).Theserisksarenotalwayswellunderstoodandquantified.Negativeconsequencesofinvestmentsinwatersupply
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infrastructurearealltoooftentransferredtothepoorestandmostvulnerablegroups,totheenvironment,andtothenextgenerations.
• Waterresourcesvariability
Waterresourcesvariability–intimeandspace–remainsacriticalprobleminwatermanagement,andhencesustainableagricultureandfoodproductionworldwide.Thisproblemisincreasingwithclimatechange.Sociallyandecologicallyresponsibleapproachestomanagingthisvariabilityarerequired.Thesewillincludedeveloping,managinganddiversifyingsupply,water‐storageinfrastructureanddistributionnetworks
• Coordinatingwaterandlandmanagement
Waterandlandmanagementareinherentlylinked.Land‐usechangeandlossofagriculturalbiodiversity,drivenbypopulationandeconomicgrowth,haspronouncedimpactsonwater.Issuesofsedimentationduetosoilerosion,soilandwatersalinization,andpollutionstronglylinkthisSRPwiththeRainfedSystems,IrrigatedSystems,andResourceRecoveryandReuseSRPs.ThisSRPcanhelpassesstheconsequencesforecosystemservicesoflandandwatermanagementinnovationsintroducedbyotherSRPs–andpossiblyotherCRPs.Managingland,waterandagriculturalbiodiversityinwaysthatbenefitthepoorandmaintainorreduceimpactsonecosystemsservicesremainsoneofthemainbasindevelopmentchallenges.
• Dwindlingresources
Anothercommonresponsetowaterscarcityistoproducemorewithfewerresources.Landandwaterproductivityremainlowerthantheycouldbe.Caseswhereimprovementsinbotharepossible,andmeansofimprovementneedtobeidentifiedandpursued.Thereisaclearlackofup‐scalingofpromisinginterventions–e.g.fromirrigatedorrainfedagriculture–tothebasinscale.Agriculturalintensificationinanidealworldshouldaimtodoubleproductiononhalfthearea.Theimpactsofintensificationonwaterresourcesandhumanhealthneedtobeunderstood,asdoestheroleofdiversityanddiversificationinincreasingwater‐useefficiency.
• Competitionforwaterresources
Onechallengeforriverbasinmanagementcomesfromthedefactoreallocationofwateroutofagriculturetourbanandindustrialuses.Whilethisisingeneraladministeredcentrallywithlittletransparency,thereisaneedtobetteridentifytheimpactsofsuchreallocation,andhowthesecanbemitigated.
• Environmentalwaterallocations
Globalinterestinenvironmentalwaterallocationsisgrowingrapidly.ExamplesincludetheMurray‐DarlingBasininAustralia,andtheEuropeanUnion,wheretheWaterFrameworkDirectiveattemptstorestore“goodecologicalstatus”ofEuropeanrivers.However,this‘new’issueexertspressureonconventionalusesofwater,particularlyagriculture,andparticularlyinthedevelopingworld,wherefoodproductionisthenumberonepriority.Noecologicallyrelevantthresholdsforsurfaceorgroundwateruseexistorareimplementedindevelopingcountries.ThisSRPwilllookathowenvironmentalflowscancoexistwithotherwateruses.
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• Lackofgooddata
Measuredreliabledata(thatreflectnaturalvariability)onanywatercomponentremainlacking.Goodpolicyandmanagementmustbebasedonsoundscientificdata.Themaximof‘ifyoucan’tmeasureit,youcan’tmanageit’isnevertruerthanforwaterresourcesmanagement.ThisSRPwillconsiderdataneedsintargetbasins,andwillalsolinkstronglywiththeInformationSystemsSRPtodeliverregional‐scalegenericassessmentsofwateravailabilityandvariability,andfactorssuchasdroughtandfloodrisks.
• Transboundarybasins
TransboundarybasinsaredominantfeaturesofthewaterlandscapeinbothAsiaandAfrica(Wolfetal.,1999).Thesebasinsarehometosignificantnumbersoftheworld’spoor,andaresourcesofinternationalandinterstatecooperationaswellasconflict.Developingeffectivegovernancestructuresandunderstandingandmanagingriverflowvariabilityinthesebasinswillbekeystopeaceaswellasagriculturalandeconomicdevelopmentandthuspovertyreduction.
Theabovearejustafewproblemareasandresearchhypothesesthatneedtobeaddressed.Testingtheseinaselectionoftargetgeographicalareas,aswellasglobally,willdemonstratehowandwherewecanprovetheoverarchingthesesthat1)agriculturalproductioncanbeintensified,diversifiedandexpandedwithoutfurtherdegradationofthenaturalresourcebaseandsupportingecosystems,and2)itispossibletoimprovewatergovernance,institutionsandmanagementsothattheimpactofwaterscarcityandvariabilityarereduced.
7.5. OurTheoryofChangeforimprovedmanagementofwaterresourcesThereareseveralentrypoints(allhavingbothlandandwaterdimensions)thatcanbeusedtoincreasethemagnitude,valueandequitablesharingofecosystemservicesandbenefitsinandfromriverbasins.1. Understandandconsiderresourcevariabilityinbasinmanagement
Most,ifnotall,watermanagementinterventionsaretriggerednotonlybylimitedwateravailabilityingeneral,butalsobyfluctuationsovertime(whichareincreasinggloballywithclimatechange).ThisSRPwillhighlighttheissueofvariabilityforpolicymakersandlandandwatermanagers.Researchcanprovideinformationtocharacterizevariabilityoflandandwaterresourcesintimeandspace,aswellasrecommendationsofhowbesttodealwithvariabilityatthebasinscale(inparticularthroughstorageandcombineduseofsurfaceandgroundwater).
2. Investinwaterinfrastructure
Thisissueiscloselyrelatedto1),above.Whereeconomicwaterscarcityprevails,thiscanimprovewateravailabilityformanyusers.Complementarylandandecosystemmanagementpracticesareneededtotakefulladvantageofinfrastructureinvestmentandtoavoidlanddegradation,oneconsequenceofwhichcanbeinfrastructuredeterioration.ThisSRPaimsto
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influencehowtheseinvestmentsaremade,bydirectadvicetokeyinvestorsorpolicymakers,orbydevelopingdecisionsupporttoolsthathighlightthetradeoffsandcomplementaritiesamongland,water,ecosystemservicesandoutcomesforrurallivelihoods.Arelatedstrategyistoinformandtherebyinfluencethediscourseoninvestments.Researchcanprovideinformationon:1)alternativeinvestmentscoveringarangeofinfrastructurepracticesandstorageoptions;2)magnitudeanddistributionofbenefitsandcostsfrominfrastructureinvestments(ofspecialinteresttoinvestorsconcernedwiththeirreputationalrisks);and3)theextenttowhichinfrastructurecanhelpmitigatetheeffectsofhydrologicalextremes(e.g.floodsanddroughts)whilemaintainingorenhancingsocialandenvironmentalgoals
3. Allocateandmanagebasinwaterandlandtoraiseproductivity,improveequityand
safeguardecosystemservicesWaterinabasincanbereallocatedfromlessproductivetomoreproductiveuseswithappropriateattentiontowaterrights,includingcompensation.Theproductivityofwaterindifferentusesisaffectedbylandmanagementpractices.ThisSRPwillinformandinfluencethediscourseaboutwaterrightsandwaterallocation.Researchcanprovidescience‐backedinformationonwaterproductivityfordifferentuses(andhowproductivityisaffectedbylandmanagementdecisions)andindicatorsforsuitablelevelsofcompensationforthosewhocedewaterrights.Waterresourcescanbereservedforenvironmentalflowsandresearchcanexaminetheconsequencesofthatforotherwaterusers.TherecentintroductionoftheseconceptsintodiscourseontheNationalRiverLinkingPlaninIndiawastheresultofgoodscienceandthe‘right’relationshipsthatjointlyensuredapositiveimpact.
4. Introduceandconsistentlyfollowtheprinciplesofbenefitsharing
Upstreamlandandwatermanagementpracticesaffectthequantity,qualityandreliabilityofwateravailabletodownstreamusers(e.g.urbancommunities,fisheries,andhydropowerandirrigationfacilities).Institutionalinnovationscanbeintroducedwherebydownstreamusersinvestinsuitableupstreamlandandwatermanagementpractices,thusimprovingthelivelihoodsofupstreamcommunitiesandmaintainingessentialenvironmentalservices(e.g.reducingsedimentflow,andstabilizingdownstreamwateravailability).Researchcanquantifyupstream–downstreaminteractionsandinformthedesignofrelatedinstitutionalinnovations,whichcanthenbetestedwithstakeholdersandtheirachievementsmeasured.
5. Payattentiontothepoliticaleconomyofpolicyselection
Decision‐makingmustbeunderstoodwithintheexistinggovernanceframework,includingbothstateandnon‐stateactors,theirrespectivepoliticalpower,worldviewsandinterests.Hydrologicalandeconomicapproachesmayidentifythecosts,benefitsandrisksassociatedwithparticularcoursesofaction,buttheymayalsobeconfrontedwiththeexistingplayersandcoalitionsendowedwiththeirownresourcesandlogics.Thisopensthewayforresearchthatfacilitatesthedevelopmentanduseoftoolssuchasmulti‐stakeholderplatformsandothersociallearningtechniques.
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7.6. WherewewillworkTargetareaswillincludebasinsandbasingroupswithbothphysicalandeconomicwaterscarcity.Theoriginalsetwillcomprisesucheightbasins/groups:MekonginSouthEastAsia,IndusandGangesinSouthAsia,theAralSeaBasinsoftheSyrDaryaandAmuDaryainCentralAsia,TigrisandEuphratesintheMiddleEast,NileinEastandNorthAfrica,LimpopoandZambeziinSouthernAfrica,VoltaandNigerinWestAfrica,andtheAndesgroupofbasinsinLatinAmerica.Thesetargetareashavehighpotentialforpovertyalleviation,establishedpartnerships,solidtrackrecordsofpreviousCPWFandCGIARresearch,andgoodpotentialforoneormoreleversofchangetobeapplied.ThisSRPwillhowevernotlimititselfentirelytothesebasins/targetareas,butwillkeepaglobaloutlookcommensuratewithitsvision.7.7. LinkstootherCRPsandSRPsThisSRPwilllinkcloselywiththeIrrigatedSystemsSRPgiventhestrongconnectionbetweenirrigation,wateravailabilityandwaterallocation.TheSRPwillalsohavemajorlinkageswithworkinCRP7(climatechange)giventheneedforinformationontheimpactsofclimatechangeonhydrology.Theavailabilityofdown‐scaledclimatepredictionswillbeveryimportantforbasinmodeling.SimilarlytheSRPwillbuildlinkageswiththeRainfedSystemsandInformationSystemsSRPstolinkterrestrialchangesinlandcovertohydrologicalimpactsviasentinelsites.Fromapolicyperspective,thisSRPwilllinktoCRP2(Policies,institutions,andmarketstostrengthenfoodsecurityandincomesfortheruralpoor).WewillalsolinkwithrelevantpartsofCRP1(agriculturalsystemsindry,humidandaquaticenvironments)tocoordinateon‐farmNRMandbasinresponses.7.8. WhatwewillachieveinthefirstfiveyearsInthenextfiveyears,athisSRPwilldevelopamuchbetterunderstandingofhowbest,indifferentsettings,todealwithwaterresourcesavailabilityandvariabilityintimeandspace–theprimaryissuesinwaterresourcesmanagementglobally.Howlandandwaterareusedinspecificlocationscanhaveprofoundimpactsonpeopleandenvironment.ThisSRPaimstoquantifytheimpactsofdifferentlandusesandmanagementpracticesonwaterprocesses,flowsandquality,onlivelihoods,andonecosystemservices.Thisinformationwillbeusedtohelpwaterauthoritiesadoptnewpoliciesforlandandwaterplanningandmanagementthatwillassistinpovertyreductionandpositiveenvironmentaloutcomesinmajortargetareas.WewillintegrateintootherSRPsandrelevantCRPsthecumulativeimpactsofandchangestoagriculturalactivitiesatbasinscale.Belowareafewexamplesofthekeyproblemsetsandassociatedresearchdirectionsthatwewillpursueinsomeofourtargetareas.
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AndesGroupofbasins–LatinAmericaBenefitsharingmechanismsasawatermanagementtool.PreviousCPWFresearchsuggestedthatthesocio‐politicalenvironmentisripeforpushingthefull‐scaleadoptionofpaymentforenvironmentalservicesinthisregion.Theideaisthatrich(er)downstreamwaterusersco‐investinimprovedupstreamlandandwatermanagementsothatallusersbenefit.Benefitsincludehigherwaterproductivity(upstream),improvedlivelihoods,reducedlanddegradationandamorestablesupplyofhigherqualitywaterdownstream–hencereducedsiltationandpollution,improvedirrigation,etc.TheimpactpathwayforthisworkisdescribedinTable7.1.GangesandIndus–SouthAsiaIntegratingenvironmentalwaterallocationsandclimatechangeimpactswithwaterresourcesdevelopmentClimatechangeimpactonglaciersandsnowintheAsianTowerareamongstthehottesttopicsdebatedatpresent,buttheimpactsremainlargelyunclearinbothbasins.Inparallel,IWMI’spreviousworkinIndiainthefieldofenvironmentalflowmanagementhasstirredthenationalinteresttothetopicandhasahighpotentialforimpactinthenearfuture.Thisresearchwillincludeamixofassessmentsofglacierandsnowimpactsonwateravailabilitydownstream,optimalwaterallocationscenariosforthefuture,newmodelsforconjunctiveuseofsurfacewaterandgroundwater,andassessmentsofenvironmentalflowimpactsfromincreasedgroundwateruseonriversandfloodinparticular.TheworkwilllinkcloselywithCRP7,underwhichtheprobableimpactsofclimatechangeareassessed.TheimpactpathwayforthisworkisdescribedinTable7.2.Mekong–SoutheastAsiaHarmonizingthewater–energyenvironmentnexusTheMekongisoneofafewmajorriverbasinsinAsiathatremainrelativelyunregulated.AhotissueintheMekongis,however,plannedhydropowerdevelopment.Thisoutputwillincludethetoolstoassistwithmanagingfuturereservoirsandtheircascadeswithinclusionofecologicalandlivelihoodconsiderations,quantifiedimpactsofpossiblehydropowerdevelopmentscenariosonlivelihoods,andquantifiedalternativescenariosforlarge‐scaleirrigationdevelopmentandalternativeenergysources.TheimpactpathwayforthisworkisdescribedinTable7.3.Nile–EastandNorthAfricaManagingwaterresourcestoreducepovertyandimprovewetlandmanagementinupstreamcountriesUpstreamNilecountriesgeneratemostoftheNileflow,butreceivethesmallestshareofbenefitsfromit.Workherewillincludescience‐backedplansforoptimalwaterstoragedevelopment(currentlyalmostnon‐existent),up‐scaledinformationforwaterproductivityimprovementinrainfedareas,andquantifiedservicesofbasinwetlandecosystems–allinthecontextofacomplextransboundaryperspective.TheimpactpathwayforthisworkisdescribedinTable7.4.
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Table7.1.ImpactPathway:Benefit‐sharingmechanismsasawatermanagementtoolinthesmallAndeanbasinsIssue Leversofchange Researchoutputs Outcomes Potentialimpact Contributionto
SRFoutcomes• InmanysmallbasinsintheAndes,conflictsamongwaterusersareincreasinglycommon.Downstreamcommunities,lowlandcommercialfarmersandhighlandirrigatedfarmerswantyear‐roundavailabilityofcleanwater.Highlandurbanareasneed,andhighlandmineswantwaterfororeprocessingwiththefreedomtodischargepollutedwaterbackintorivers.Highlandrainfedfarmersandherderswanttoexpandandintensifyproductionsystems,althoughthismayleadtoovergrazinganderosionwithimplicationsdownstream.Hydropoweroperatorsneedtheflexibilitytorapidlychangethevolumeofwaterflowingthroughturbinestomeetpowerdemand.However,alpinecommunitiesandthosewhovaluebiodiversitywantalpinelakelevelstoremainstableandhighlandnaturereservesproperlymaintained.
Improvedenergy,foodandenvironmentalsecurityintheAndescanbeachievedthrough(1)rewardingforpositiveandpenalizingfornegativeincentives,(2)investmentsinwaterstorageandwatertreatment,and(3)broker‘benefit‐sharingmechanisms’.Thelatterarewhendownstreamwaterusersco‐investinhighlandmanagementfocusingonpracticesthatimprovehighlandcommunitylivelihoodsandstabilizewateravailabilityfordownstreamconsumers.Allthreeleversrequirestrategiesthatintegratepolicies,institutionalarrangements,technologiesandstakeholderengagement.
Informationandtools• Agoodunderstandingoflandandwatermanagementpracticesbydifferentstakeholders,andnegativeandpositiveexternalitiesofsuchpracticesfordownstreamwaterusersandtheoverallproductionofecosystemservices
• Agoodunderstandingofthedistributionalandcross‐scaleconsequences,includingcostsandbenefits,ofalternativestrategies
• datasetsandtoolstosupportalloftheabove.
RangeofsolutionsStrategiesforinvestinginwaterinfrastructure,treatmentandbenefit‐sharing,withanunderstandingoftheperformanceofdifferentstrategiesundervariousconditions.ImprovedcapacityAgoodunderstandingofhowtoencouragestakeholderstodefineproblems,targetsolutions,understandtheirconsequences,andnegotiateevidence‐basedbenefit‐sharingagreements.
• Nationalandprovincialgovernmentsestablishandimplementpoliciesfavorabletotheintroductionofevidence‐basednegotiationstodevelopsuitablebenefit‐sharingmechanisms
• Institutionalarrangementstosharewater,orwater‐relatedbenefits
• Investmentsmadeinwaterstorage,managementandtreatment,withcostssharedequitablybystakeholders
• Improvementsmadeinlandandwatermanagementbyfarmersandherdersthatimprovelivelihoods,stabilizewaterflow,reducesedimentflow,andproduceandsupportawiderangeofecosystemservices.
• Livelihoodsofpoorhighlandcommunitiesimproved
• Greaterandmorestableavailabilityofwatertodownstreamcommunities
• Increasedandmoreflexiblepowergeneration
• Reducedwaterpollutionfromminesandurbanareas
• Improvedpreservationofalpinenaturereservesincludinglakes
• Reducedwater‐relatedconflict.
• SustainableNRM;povertyreduction
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Table7.2.ImpactPathway:IntegratingenvironmentalwaterallocationsandclimatechangeimpactswithwaterresourcesdevelopmentintheGangesandIndusRiverBasinsIssue Leversof
changeResearchoutputs Outcomes Potentialimpact Contributionto
SRFoutcomes• TheenvironmentalandspiritualsignificanceofGangesforIndiaisveryhigh,asisthedesiretokeepithealthy,despitemassivedevelopmentplans.ClimatechangeimpactonglaciersandsnowintheAsianTower,coupledwithprojectedchangesinmonsoonpatternareamongthehottesttopicsdebatedatpresent,buttheimpactsremainlargelyunclearinbothIndusandGanges.Bothbasinsarehometosome600millionpeople.Waterproductivityimprovementinbothbasinsishighontheagenda.Waterresourcesplanningandmanagementiscarriedoutinconditionsoflimitedornoaccesstolimitedornodataonvirtuallyanycomponentofwaterbalance.TransboundarycooperationbetweenIndiaandPakistan,andIndiaandBangladesh,needssignificantimprovement.
• Nomatterhowuncertaintheprojectionsare,thegeneralbiophysicaltrendinbothbasinsseemstobetowardsthesignificantincreaseinwaterresourcesvariability.Understandingthistrendandcommunicatingittoresponsibleauthoritiesisimperative,asbothbasinswillbecomemuchmorevulnerable,andbothmaynotbeabletosupporttheirpopulationsin20years’time.
Waterresources:• ImpactofclimatechangeonriverflowsandgroundwaterrechargeintheIndusandtheGanges;availabilityofsurface/groundwaterresourcesindifferentpartsofbothbasins
• Quantificationofdisastrousevents(e.g.flooding),theirimpactsonagriculturalproduction,andformulationofpreventivestrategies.
Foodsecurity:• Roleofchanged/improvedwaterresourcesincontinuedintensificationoffoodproduction.
• Assessmentofregionalhotspotsandwaystoimprovelowwaterproductivity.
• Basin‐wide,interstatehydro‐economicmodelsthatallowthesimulationofoptimalwater‐allocationscenariostomeetfuturewaterdemands.
• Standarddatasetsandinstitutionalarrangementsacceptedbyallbasinstates,onwhichtransparentdecisionsonwaterandbenefits‐sharingcanbemade
Environment:• Environmentalflowsforbothbasinsincludedintodevelopmentplanning;
• Thresholdsforgroundwaterdevelopmentinunderusedpartsofbothbasinsestablished.
• Individualripariancountriesandregionalbodiesuseknowledgeandrecommendationstocreatepolicy.
• Nationalplanningbodiesanddevelopmentbankssupportproposedstrategies.
• Newwater‐sharingarrangementsconcerningtheHimalayanregion
• Increaseddonorcoordinationandimproveduseofresources
• Enhancedfoodsecurityforover170millionruralinhabitantsinbothbasins
• Reducedvulnerabilitytoclimate‐inducedwaterextremesinthebasin.
• Bettercooperationandreducedwaterconflictintheregion.
• Improvedhealthoftwoofthemajorendangeredrivers(IndusandGanges)oftheworld.
• Foodsecurity• Povertyreduction
• SustainableNRM
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Table7.3.ImpactPathway:Harmonizingthewater–energy–environmentnexusintheMekongBasinIssue Leversofchange Researchoutputs Outcomes Potentialimpact Contributionto
SRFoutcomesTheMekonghostsarangeofbiophysicalandsocioeconomicattributes,reflectingthedegreeofeconomicdevelopmentofcountries.Economicgrowthtriggersthedevelopmentofwaterresourcesforhydropowerproductionandassociatedrelatedareas.TheMekonghoweverremainsyetoneofthefewunregulatedlargeriverbasinsintheworld,butforhowlong?Changesintheflowregimeduetowaterinfrastructuredevelopmentwillhavebothpositive(waterforirrigation,floodcontrol)andnegative(declineinfisheries,potentialsalt‐waterintrusion)impacts.Balancingthesecompetingusesisanimperativeininfluencingthebasindevelopmenttrajectorythatensureequityandsustainability.
TherecentpushformainstreamdamsatXayburyandDonSahongaddsanewlevelofurgencytounderstandingimpactsofwaterinfrastructuredevelopment.Improvedunderstandingofbasinhydrologyoverthelast10yearsprovidesthebasisto–toincorporateecological,socialandeconomicconsequencesandtradeoffsofbasindevelopment.Structuresfortransboundarycooperation,suchastheMekongRiverCommission(MRC),providepathwaysforputtingnewknowledgeintopractice
TransboundarycooperationNewtoolsforlandandwaterresourcesmonitoringusingspacetechnologiesandpublicdomaindatatodemonstratedata‐sharingbenefitsfortransboundarymanagementLivelihoods• Developmentandassessmentof
livelihoodstrategiesforcommunitiesaffectedbylargewaterresourcesdevelopment
• Practicestoenhanceproductivityofseasonalfloodwatersforthebenefitsofthepoor(rice‐fishsystems,recessionagriculture,maintenanceofwildcaptureandharvest)
• Managementofsaline/freshwatertoenhancelivelihoodsinMekongdelta
Environment• Improvedwatershedmanagementto
reducesedimentgenerationthrough'smart'incentivestoenhanceadoptionofconservingpractices
• Quantificationoftheimpactofwaterresourcesinfrastructureonfisheriesandaquaticresourcesandpotentialmitigationstrategies
Trade‐offsEconomicandenvironmentalevaluationofmultipurposedamsinmeetingenergy,livelihoodandenvironmentaltargets
• Mekongbasincountriesandregionalorganizations,suchastheMRCandtheprivatesector,useknowledgeandrecommendationstocreatepolicyandinfluencethedecision‐makingprocessinwaterinfrastructuredevelopment;e.g.reservoirplanningexplicitlyincludesenvironmentalandlivelihoodparameters
• Developmentpartnerssupportandadoptedthesestrategies
• Freeflowofwaterdataintheentirebasin
• Waterandelectricitysupplyimprovedforabout50millionpeopleintheBasin.
• MekongbecomesthefirstlargeriverbasininAsia,wheresustainablewaterandlandmanagementpoliciesareintroducedbeforemassiveadverseenvironmentalandsocialimpactsmanifestthemselves
• SustainableNRM
• Povertyreduction
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Table7.4.ImpactPathway:ManagingwaterresourcestoreducepovertyandimprovewetlandmanagementintheNileRiverBasinIssue Leversofchange Researchoutputs Outcomes Potentialimpact Contributionto
SRFoutcomes• UpstreamNilecountriesgeneratemostoftheNileflow,butreceivethelowestshareofbenefitsfromit.Theyareverypoorandveryvulnerabletoclimatechange.Ethiopia’sagriculturalGDP,forexample,fluctuatesalmostinperfectcorrelationwithannualprecipitation.Agriculturalintensification,irrigationandhydropowerdevelopmentinSudanandEthiopia–whichareneededurgentlyforpovertyalleviation–willaffectdownstreamflowsandwetlandsystems(e.g.Sudd)thatarecriticaltolocallivelihoods.Strategiesareneededtooptimizeupstreamdevelopmentandwateraccesswhileminimizingdownstreamimpacts.Allofthismustoccurinacomplextransboundarycontext
Currentandproposedinvestments(e.g.TekezeandMerowedams)andpopulationgrowthmeanthatrapidchangeisalreadyunderway;thechallengeandopportunityistoinfluencedevelopmentthroughbetterunderstandingofwherebenefitsfromwateraccrue.Themajorchangeleverisinvestmentinwaterstorage,buthowwillthis,ifithappens,affectwetlandecosystems,forexample?
HydrologyandWaterResources:• Science‐backedplansforoptimalwatermanagementandstorageinupstreamNilecountries,includinggroundwateroptions–allwithimplicationstodownstreamwetlandsystems
• ManagementstrategiesformajorwetlandsystemsofsouthernSudan(Sudd,Machar,BahrelGhazal)
Livelihoods• Strategiestoimprovewaterproductivityanddecreasedroughtriskinrainfedagriculturalandpastoralsystems
• High‐potentialwaterandlandinterventionsforpovertyreductionintheBlueNileBasin–basedonanalysisofwateravailability,accessandproductivityinEthiopianHighlands;
EcosystemservicesQuantificationofrelativeimportanceofecosystemservicesfromtheriverandwetlandsasthebasisfornegotiatingtradeoffsamongsectorsandcountries
• SustainableproductionsystemsinrainfedareasandmajorwetlandareasofsouthernSudanandtheEquatorialLakesregion
• Reductionofvulnerabilitytodroughtintheupperbasinthroughimprovedwaterstorageandaccesstogroundwater
• Basin‐widecooperationinidentifyingdevelopmentprojectswithtransboundarybenefits
• Developmentbanksanddonorssupportproposedstrategies
• Significantincreasesinfoodproductionfromrainfedagriculturalandpastoralsystems,andreducedincidenceoffamineinEthiopiaandSudan
• ReductionintensionbetweenupperbasinandEgyptbyidentifyingupstreamdevelopmentoptionswithminimumdownstreamimpacts
• MoreequitabledistributionofbenefitsfromNilebasinwater
• Protectionofkeywetlandsites
• Wetlandprotectionleadingtosustainablemanagementofnaturalresources
• Povertyalleviationthroughbenefit‐sharing
• Foodsecurityviaincreasedproductivity
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AmuDaryaandSyrDarya–CentralAsiaTransboundarywatermanagementsolutionsintransitioneconomiesSyrDaryaandAmuDaryaaretheonlytwomajorwatersourcesinCentralAsia.PoliticalrelationsbetweenthecountriesinCentralAsiaaredrivenbyaccesstothewaterinthesetworivers.Keyherewillbeanalysesofpastandcurrentwater‐relatedbenefit‐sharingagreements,andchangesinthem(beforeandafterindependence);assessmentsofpossibleoptionsforwaterreallocationwithenvironmentalconsequences;transparentdecisionsupporttoolsforbasin‐wideassessmentoftheseoptions;possibledata‐sharingagreements;illustrationofthebenefitsofanas‐yetcompletelyunderusedresource–groundwater–inagriculture;andanalysisofthewidercostsandbenefitsofsharingthewaterintheSyrDarya/AmyDarya,includingpotentialnewplayerssuchAfghanistan.TheimpactpathwayforthisworkisdescribedinTable7.5.VoltaandNiger–WestAfricaWaterstoragetoreduceregionaldroughtriskPreviousIWMIandCPWFresearchintheregiondemonstratedthepotentialofshallowgroundwaterandsmallreservoirsforagriculturalproductionandpovertyalleviation.Thesubsequentresearchwilldeliverguidelinesonbestpossiblecombinationofstorageoptions(e.g.varioussizereservoirsandgroundwater)toalleviatedroughtimpacts–themajorclimaticfactorhamperingagriculturaldevelopmentintheregion.ClosecollaborationwithCRP7(climatechange),andCRP1.1.(drylands)isenvisaged.TheimpactpathwayforthisworkisdescribedinTable7.6.ZambeziandLimpopo–SouthernAfricaHarvestingtransboundaryaquifersSouthernAfricaischaracterizedbyhighlevelofsurface‐waterresourcesdevelopment,and,ironically,ratherlimitedamountsofsurfacewater.Apushforregionalagriculturemaybeexpectedfromgroundwaterdevelopmentinlargetransboundaryaquifers.Thisresearchwillincludeassessmentofgroundwateravailabilityintheseaquifers,establishingecologicalthresholdsforgroundwateruse(stillpossiblepriortomajorharvestingofgroundwater),andrelevantgovernancemodels.
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Table7.5.ImpactPathway:Transboundarywatermanagementsolutionsintransitioneconomies:AmuDaryandSyrDariaBasinsIssue Leversofchange Researchoutputs Outcomes Potential
impactContributiontoSRFoutcomes
• SovieteracooperationinCentralAsia(AmuandSyrDaryaBasins)largelycollapsedafter1991,resultinginmisuseofwaterforbothagricultureandenergy,withsubstantialenvironmentalcosts.Yetasetofpastagreementsisstillinplace,andirrigationinfrastructurehasgonelargelyunnoticeddespitehugelocalandinternationalinvestmentstocraftnewbasin‐scalewatermanagementplans–e.g.forSyrDarya.Themajorplansformassiveinter‐basinwatertransfersfromRussiatoCentralAsiaarebackontheregionalagenda.Afghanistanmayalsoenterthestagesoon.Drawinglessonsfrompastfunctioningagreements,andquantifyingpossibletrendswillpavethewaytoimprovedbasinmanagement.Italsopointstothebenefitsandlimitsofbasin‐scaleapproaches.
• Coordinatedmanagementcanimproveenergy,foodandenvironmentalsecurityinthebasins.Butforittohappen,allpartiesneedtobenefit.Onewaytochangeistolearnfromnaturalandsocialenvironmentsinwhichbrightspotsofcooperation(ifany)occurred.Yet,consideringthetransitionalnatureofregionaleconomies,identifying‘secondbest’solutionsforimmediateimplementationisanotherstrategy.Thistwo‐tierapproachmayprovidethebreakthroughthattheregionhasbeenmissingforover20years.
Transboundarycooperation:InventoryandanalysisofpastandcurrentwaterrelatedagreementsIrrigation/livelihoods• Analysisofregionalchanges/variationsinwatercontrol,andtheirimpactonpossiblecooperation,povertyalleviation,equityandgender
• Demonstrationofbenefitsofgroundwateruseinagricultureforimmediatewaterscarcityrelief
EnvironmentAssessmentsofenvironmentalflowimpacts(withorwithoutcooperation)includingthoseontheAralSea,andofindustrial/urbaneffluentsandagriculturalreturnflowondrinkingwaterOverallcostandbenefitsAnalysisofthewidercostsandbenefitsofsharingthewaterincluding:agriculture,energy,environment,anddrinkingsupply
• Regionalstatesandorganizationsuseknowledgeandrecommendationstocreatepolicy
• Developmentbankssupportproposedstrategies
• IncreasedDonorcoordination/decreasedaidfragmentation
• Institutionalizationofenforceabletransboundarycooperation
• LivelihoodsecurityoftheFerganaValley’s10millioninhabitantsincreased
• Waterandelectricitysupplyimprovedfortheregion
• Environmentaldamagetobasinsreduced
• Lessonsappliedtootherbasinsintheregionandbeyond
• SignificantcontributionstolivelihoodandsustainableNRMSLOs
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Table7.6.ImpactPathway:WaterstoragetoreduceregionaldroughtriskintheVoltaandNigerRiverBasins(applicabletomostofAfrica)Issue Leversofchange Researchoutputs Outcomes Potentialimpact Contributionto
SRFoutcomesInabilitytopredictandmanageclimateandhencewatervariabilityliesbehindmuchoftheprevailingpovertyandfoodinsecurityinWestAfrica.Decliningrainfallsincethemid‐1970s,hasexacerbatedtheproblemanditisanticipatedthatclimatechange,whichwillmostlikelyincreasethefrequencyandseverityofdroughts,willdosofurther.PreviousIWMIandCPWFresearchhasshownthataccesstogroundwaterandarangeofwaterstorageoptionscancontributetoincreasedfoodsecurityandbetterlivelihoods.However,asarule,paststorageinterventionshavefailedforavarietyofreasons.Pastwaterstoragedevelopmenthasoccurredinapiecemealfashion,largelythroughlocalinitiativesandwithminimalplanning.
Investmentintovariousformsofstorageisthemainpathtosustainabilityandfoodsecurityintheregion.Itwillbeimperativetodevelopandteststructuredandscience‐backedandtestedshort‐andlong‐termbasin‐widestorageplans,takingintoaccountallpossibleandsocioeconomicallyacceptableandfeasibleplans,ratherthanfollowanad‐hocpath.
Improvedunderstandingofstorageefficacy:• Insightsintotheneed,suitabilityandeffectivenessofdifferentwaterstorageoptions,underdifferentagro‐ecologicalandsocioeconomicconditions(i.e.whatworkswhere,whendoesitworkandwhydoesitwork).
• Betterunderstandingofsynergiesandtradeoffsassociatedwithcombinationsofdifferentstoragetypes.
• Insightsintohowdifferentgroundwaterandsurfacestorageoptionsaremanagedintermsofaccess,institutionsandthedistributionofbenefits.
Livelihoods:Genderedevaluationofthedirectandindirectimpactsofdifferentwaterstorageoptionsonlivelihoodstrategies,povertyalleviationandequityImprovedplanningandmanagement:Toolsandapproachesforbetterintegratedplanningandmanagementofsurfacestorageandgroundwater
• WestAfricanstatesandorganizationsliketheVoltaBasinAuthorityuseknowledgeandrecommendationstoinformwaterresourcepolicy.
• WestAfricanstatesandriverbasinauthoritiesdevelopwaterstoragestrategiestobetterplanandmanagethefullrangeofwaterstorageoptions,inanintegratedfashion,factoringinclimatechangetoo.
• WBandAfDBsupportproposedwaterstoragestrategiesandimbedthemfirmlyintheirinvestmentpolicies
• IncreasedcoordinationbetweenNGOs,governmentsandbasinplannersinstoragedevelopment,andawarenessatalllevels
• Livelihoodsecurityandresilienceofaround120million(mostlyrural)inhabitantsintheVoltaandNigerRiverBasinsincreased.
• Lessonsappliedtootherbasinsintheregionandbeyond
• Povertyreduction
• Foodsecurity
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7.9. WhatwewillachieveinthesecondfiveyearsInyears6to10,lessonsfromtheaboveimpactpathwayswillbeusedtoextendsustainableland,waterandecosystemmanagementpracticesintootherwater‐stressedbasins.Significantattentionwillbegiventomonitoringtheimpactonecosystemservicesfromdiversifiedmanagementpractices,andtocooperationwiththeSRPonInformationSystemstodevelopregionalanalysesandinformationproductsondroughtrisk,soil‐waterstorage,environmentalflowrecommendationsandgroundwaterrechargepossibilities.
7.10. ExamplesofresearchquestionsWewilltestseveralhypothesesinthisSRP.Thefollowingareexamplesofthosehypotheses,alongwithassociatedresearchquestions.GuidinghypothesisWaterscarcitycanbealleviatedbyimprovedwatersupply,bymanagementofwaterdemandand,inparticular,byreducingwaterresourcesvariability.Researchquestions• Towhatextentiswaterphysically/economicallyscarceinabasin?• Howisscarcitytheresultofpastpolicydecisionsandhowcanitbepreventedfrom
becomingworse?• Howiswaterusedinabasin?Howmuchrecyclingisobservedandwhatisthescopefor
‘real’watersavings?• Whataretheappropriatebasin/regionalstrategiesforimprovedwatersupplyanddemand
managementconsideringparticularphysicalandsocio‐politicalcontexts• Whatarethehydrological,socio‐politicalandecologicalrisksassociatedwithwater
resourcesdevelopments,aswellasotherpolicyoptions,thatnegativelyaffectthelivelihoodsofthepoor?Howcantheybebestquantified?
• Howcangroundwaterabstractionbecontrolledandhowtointegratethecombinedusesofsurfaceandgroundwateratthebasinlevel?
• Howdoeswaterqualityaffectwateravailabilityforvarioususes?• Howcanhydrologicalextremes(droughtsandfloods)bebetterpredictedandmanagedto
minimizetheirnegativeimpactsonagriculture?• Whatarethebestwater‐storageoptionsformanagingwaterresourcesvariability?• Howbesttomanagewaterresourcesvariabilityintransboundaryriverbasins
(internationalorstateboundaries)?GuidinghypothesisRiverBasinscanbemanagedtomaximizethevalueofecosystemservicesandbenefits.Researchquestions• Howbesttoquantifyandmapvariousecosystemservicesandthecomponentsthatprovide
theseservicesinbasins/landscapes?• Howarewater‐relatedecosystemservicesfordifferentgroupsaffectedbyland
management?
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• Howcanecosystemservicesandbenefitsoflandandwaterbebestsharedacrosssectors,improvingthelivelihoodsofthepoor,fosteringgenderequity,andminimizingenvironmentalimpacts?
• Whatwaterandlandmanagementpracticesenhanceorcreateecosystemservicesforcurrentandfutureusetoreducepoverty?
• Whatcompositeofresearch,rules,monitoringandgovernanceisbestsuitedtoensurethatnegativeimpactsofaninterventioninonepartofabasinarenottransferredtoanother?
• Howtoensurethatinternationalagreementscontributetotheprotectionofecosystemservicesandpovertyalleviation?
GuidinghypothesisAgriculturalintensificationispossiblewithoutdetrimentalimpactsonwaterandland.Researchquestions• Whatarethelimitsofwaterproductivityimprovementindifferentgeographicalandsocio‐
politicalsettings,andhowcantheybeachieved?• Howtobestup‐scalepromisinginterventionsfromirrigatedorrainfedagriculturetothe
basin?• Whataretheimpactsofagriculturalintensificationanddiversificationonwaterresources?• Whatarethetradeoffsbetweenenvironmentalwaterallocationand‘conventional’usesof
water,particularlyagricultureinthedevelopingworld,wherefoodproductionisafirstpriority?
• Howbesttosetandimplementecologicallyrelevantthresholdsforsurfaceorgroundwateruseindevelopingcountries?
GuidinghypothesisGlobaldriversofchangecanbeexplicitlyaccountedforinbasinmanagement.Researchquestions• Whichdriversofchangearemostpronouncedindifferentgeographicalandsocio‐political
settings?• Howdovariousexternaldriversaffecttheavailabilityoflandandwater,andthemagnitude,
valueanddistributionofwater‐andland‐relatedecosystemservicesandbenefits?• Howcanmacroeconomic,tradeandagriculturalsectorpoliciesbeharnessedtosupport
enhancedwater,landandecosystemoutcomesforpovertyalleviation?• Whatarethehydrologicalandsocialdynamicsofcompetingwaterusesanddriversof
changewithinriverbasins/landscapes?• Whattoolscanbedevelopedtopredictandmanagechange?
7.11. ImplementationplanResearchwillbeconductedintargetbasinsthatrepresentdifferentpovertylevels,hydrologicalconditions,levelsandtypesofwaterscarcity,anddevelopmentandclosure,andwheretheCGIARalreadyhasastrongpresence.Byconductingstudiesacrossawiderangeofbasinsandlandscapestherearemultipleopportunitiesfor:
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• Newpartnershipswithrelevantinternationalresearchinstitutesandacademicinstitutions.• ComplementaritiesbetweenotherSRPsandCRPs.Examplesmayincludescalingupthe
findingsoftheIrrigationSystemsandRainfedSystemsSRPstolandscape/basinlevels;useofInformationSystemsSRPoutputsforbetterquantificationofbasinlandandwateravailabilityandecosystemservices;howupstreamdevelopmentswillimpactcoastalareas(linkwithCRP1.3);whatarethedownstreamimpactsofupstreamdevelopmentinhighlands(linkwithCRP1.1andCRP1.2),orhowtoadaptwaterstoragestructures,groundwateruseandbasingovernancetoincreasingwaterandclimatevariabilityunderprogressiveclimatechange(CRP7).
• Actionresearchmodeforstimulatingwater‐andland‐relatedbenefit‐sharingarrangements.
• Comparativeanalysistogenerateinternationalpublicgoods.7.12. ResearchoutputsandoutcomesGenericresearchoutputsfromcrossbasinresearch• Institutional,policyandtechnicalinnovationstoi)increasewaterandlandproductivity
ii)arrestlanddegradation;iii)alleviateadverseimpactsofspatialandinter‐andintra‐annualwaterresourcesvariability,iv)improveresourcegovernanceandbenefitssharing
• Informationandguidelinesoni)valueandproductivityofwaterindifferentuses
(includingaquaticandterrestrialenvironment);ii)selectionandevaluationofvariouswaterstorageoptionsandtheircombinationsatbasinscale;iii)planningandimplementationofbenefit‐sharingmechanisms;andiv)bestwaterandlandallocationpracticeswithsociallyandecologicallyresponsiblegoals.
• Methodsandtechniquesto:i)analyzetrade‐offsbetweendifferentwaterandlanduses;ii)
evaluatethedistributionoflandandwaterrelatedbenefits;iii)evaluatewateravailability,allocationandaccess
• Improvedcapacityintheformofi)non‐specialistswhoareawareofandhaveaccessto
advancedtechnologiesanddataresourcesforpolicy‐making(remotesensing,modeling,GIS);ii)trainedspecialistsincludingM.Sc.andPh.D.students
OutcomesIn10yearsitisexpectedthat:• Currentandfuture(underchangingclimates)waterresourcesvariabilityismainstreamed
intowaterresourcesplanninginalltargetareas.
• Decisionsoninvestmentsinwaterinfrastructureandontheselectionofwatermanagementpolicyoptions(notablyallocation)inwater‐stressedriverbasinsareinformedbytheresearchofthisSRPinallmajorriverbasins,consideringbothphysicalandsocio‐politicalcontexts.
• Waterstoragedevelopmentbecomesastructuredprocessworldwide.Governmentsanddevelopmentagenciespayattentiontothevarietyofstorageoptions(andtheir
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combinations)available,aspartofthe‘storagecontinuum,’andconsidereconomic,socialandecologicalimplicationsofstoragedevelopment.
• Benefit‐sharingmechanismsandpaymentsforecosystemservices,designedorinfluencedbythisSRP,areinplaceintargetriverbasins(whereprovedfeasibleandrelevant),andareconsideredforadoptioninothermajoragriculturalriverbasins/regionsoftheworld.
• Allwater‐relateddataandinformation(includinggroundobservationsfromallnationalarchives)requiredforinformedwaterandlandmanagementinallworldriverbasins(includingalltransboundaryones)arefreelysharedwithallnationalandinternationalstakeholders.ThisoutcomeisanticipatedthroughworkwiththeInformationSystemsSRP.
• Allocationofwaterforenvironmentalandsocialneedsisfirmlyincludedinnationalwaterpoliciesinallcountriesthatsharethetargetbasins,andhasbecometheinternationallyacceptedwatermanagementpractice.
• Ashifttocombinedsurface‐groundwatermanagementanduseispracticedinregionswheregroundwateriscurrentlyunderused.Agriculturalgroundwaterusehasincreasedbyananticipated30%insub‐SaharanAfrica,CentralAsiaandEastIndia/Nepal.Policiesspecifyingenvironmentalthresholdsofgroundwateruseareinplaceinallaboveriverbasinswhetherclosedoropen.ManagedaquiferrechargehasbecomeaviablealternativetotheNationalRiverLinkingProgram(NRLP)inIndia.ThisoutcomeisanticipatedthroughworkwiththeIrrigatedSystemsSRP.
• Thequantifiedimpactsofland‐usechangeonwateravailabilityareconsideredinallbasinmanagementdecisioninthetargetareas.
• Thenumberofpeopleexperiencingvariousformsofwaterscarcitygloballyissubstantiallyandclearlyreduced–directlyorindirectlyinfluencedbytheresultsoftheworkofthisSRP.
• Improvedresearchcapacitytoquantifyecosystemservices,analyzelandandwater‐relatedbenefits,improvewaterandlandmonitoring,andmitigatenegativeimpactsofhumaninterventionsisinplaceanddoubledinalltargetareas.
7.13. ResearchpartnersTable7.7indicatesthetypesofpartnerswearecurrentlyworkingwith,orplantoworkwith.Moredetailedpartnershiparrangementsbybasin,countryorregionwillbedevelopedduringtheimplementationphaseoftheprogram.Apartfromalreadyexistingstrongpartnershipsinregionswithindividualorganizations,oneintentionistodeveloplinkswithnetworksoforganizationsononehand(tobroadentheoverallpartnershipwebandincreasevisibility),andwithnewpartners–toaddressspecifictechnicalneedsofthenewprojectsunderthisSRP.AsthisisanintegratingSRP,additionalpartnershipswillalsonaturallybeestablishedthroughfourotherSRPs.Manypartnerships(e.g.withFAO,IUCN,theUNConventions,UNESCO‐HELPProgram,andARIs)willdealwithsustainableNRMinworldbasins,regionsandglobally.
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Table7.7.PartnersinSRPRiverBasins
Region/basin
Coreresearch Implementation Outreach
Limpopo–Zambezi
AgriculturalResearchCouncil(ARC)andCouncilforScientificandIndustrialResearch(CSIR,SouthAfrica);WRC(SouthAfrica);TexasA&MUniversity,USA;DHIandGeologicalSurveyofDenmark(GEUS)
SouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity(SADC);MinistryofAgricultureandFoodSecurity,Malawi;LimCom(LimpopoBasinCommission);DepartmentofWaterAffair(SouthAfrica)
FANRPAN(Food,AgricultureandNaturalResourcesPolicyAnalysisNetwork),SouthAfrica;UNEP;IUCN,
Nile
BahirDarandArbaMinchUniversities(Ethiopia),WaterWatchandIHE(Netherlands),CornellandUtahStateUniversities,USA;StockholmEnvironmentInstitute(SEI);EthiopianEconomicPolicyResearchInstitute;EthiopianInstituteofAgriculturalResearch;ARCandNWRCinEgypt
NileBasinInitiative(NBI);AllianceforaGreenRevolutioninAfrica(AGRA);EasternNileTechnicalRegionalOrganization(ENTRO);EthiopianRainWaterHarvestingAssociation(EWRHA)network;MinistriesofWaterResourcesandAgricultureinSudan,EthiopiaandEgypt;
RAMSAR;IUCN,UNEconomicCommissionforAfrica;AllianceforaGreenRevolutioninAfrica(AGRA);
Volta–Niger
AGRHYMET,WestAfrica‐Niger;CouncilforScientificandIndustrialResearch(CSIR),GHANA;InstituteforEnvironmentandAgriculturalResearch(INERA),BurkinaFaso;ZEF‐Bonn;WASCALProjectlocatedinGhana‐BurkinaFaso,engagingmultipleEastAfricaandGermanUniversities;CIRADandIRD(France)
VoltaBasinAuthority(VBA);WaterResearchCommission(WRC)‐Ghana;AllianceforaGreenRevolutioninAfrica(AGRA);Bill&MelindaGatesFoundation,USA;WaterResourcesCommission(WRC,Ghana),IDE
UNEconomicCommissionforAfrica;AllianceforaGreenRevolutioninAfrica(AGRA);
Mekong CSIRO‐Australia;ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS),China;NationalAgriculturalandforestryResearchInstitute(NAFRI)‐Laos;StockholmEnvironmentInstitute(SEI);SoilsandFertilizerResearchInstitute(SFRI),Vietnam;NationalAgricultureandForestryResearchInstitute(NAFRI),LaoPDR;UtahStateUniversity,USA;IRD(France)
MRC,FAO,MinistryofWaterResourcesandMeteorology‐Cambodia;MinistryofAgriculture,ForestryandFisheries(MAFF‐Cambodia;MinistryofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment(Vietnam)WaterResourcesandEnvironmentAdministration(WREA),LaoPDR
MPOWER,MRC
Indus–Ganges
ICIMOD,ICAR,PakistanAgriculturalResearchCouncil,IITM‐Pune,India,IWM(Bangladesh);WWF‐India;San–DiegoUniversity
MinistryofWaterResources,India;GangaWaterAuthority(GWAIndia),WAPDA(Pakistan);WARPO(Bangladesh);Nestle
WWF‐India,IUCN,WaterFootprintNetwork,GWP,InternationalWaterStewardshipNetwork
AralSeaBasins
SIC‐IWC,NationalHydrometeorologicalService,Uzbekistan;TheInstituteofHydrogeologyandEngineeringGeology,Tashkent
GTZ,WUAsinFerganaValley;SIC
AndeanBasins’group
COSUAN(networkof16Andeancountryuniversities);ConsortiumfortheSustainableDevelopmentoftheAndeanEcoregion(CONDESAN),Peru;
FUNDESOT(FoundationforSustainableDevelopment),Andes;RIMISP(LatinAmericanCenterforRuralDevelopment)
