5th PAN-EIROPEAN CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.CONSTRUCTING WORLD ORDERSThe Hague, 9-11 of September, 2004

HUMAN SECURITY IN LATIN AMERICA WITHSPECIAL REFERENCE TO MEXICO

Úrsula Oswald SpringCRIM-UNAM, Mexico

El Colegio deTlaxcala

Index

• Most important problems in Latin America• Global Scheme• Human Security and Poverty Alleviation• Hunger, Poverty and Child-Malnutrition• Income Gap Avoids Poverty Alleviation• Social Expenditure• Income and Worker Organization• Gender Security• Women in Politics• Institutions and Citizen Confidence• Importance of Democracy• Violence• Millenium Goals and Reduction of Extreme Poverty• Possibilities to Achieve the Millenium Goals• Mexico: Some Data• Human, Gender and Environmental Security in Latin America

Macro (Global )Environment

Superpower

Conflict Mediation Management

World Trade

Developing Context

Free Maricet

Science andTechnology

Mass Media

Sovereinty and its Articulation

Global Financial System

War

MultinationalEnterprises

MigrationDisplacement

Multilateralim

Terrorism,Crime

Cultural Diversity

Individual andPersonal

Goals

BasicNeeds

EducationSkills

Wellaing,Leisure

Socialization

SocialOrganization

IndividuationProcesses

Family

MicroEnvironment

Poverty

IntrafamiliarIntracommunity

Conflicts

Migration

Social Secutityand Welfare

Nation State

Family , Hanseholdsand Coummunity

Relations

WealthDisparities

Human Development

Gender Relations

Employment

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HUMAN SECURITY IN LATE MODERN SOCIETY DEEP INTERNALISED OCCIDENTAL VALUES, STATE CIVILIZATORY PROCESSES ANDCOLONIALISM ETNOCENTRISM, INDUSTRIALIZATION, AGE OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION REVOLUTION (GLOCALISATION )

Deep internalised values , Humankind , Beliefs, Habits, Gender Distinction , Rules, Costums

Militarism,

Basic HumanRights : Life

Determinants

Private Propiety , State of Law, Division of Powers, Democracy

HUMAN, GENDER & ENVIRONMENTAL

SECURITY

Health

Food

Shelder

Education

SexEmployment

Sustainable enviroment

Free PrehisionsExpression

NonviolentConflict

Resolution

Equity

Sustainability

Justice

Democracy

Vulnerability

Risk

Peace

Diversity

Conflict and Change

ColonialsmColonialsm EurocentrisEurocentris EthnocentrismEthnocentrism

Source: Latinobarómetro, 2004 *Includes political problems, terrorism, education, health and others

MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS IN LAWhat do you consider to be the country's most important problem?% of respondents 2004, (unweighted average of all countries)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Other*

Corruption

Crime/public security

Poverty, inflation or Low wages

Unemployment

Leading global risk factors and contributions to burden of disease (% of disability-adjusted life years lost)

Iron deficiency

High cholesterol

Alcohol

High blood pressure

Underweight infants & mothers

Developing countries Developed countries

Source: United System Standing Committee on Nutrition/ The Lancet, 2004

PoorPoorExtreme PoorExtreme Poor

INCREASE OF POVERTY IN LA (% OF PERSONS)INCREASE OF POVERTY IN LA (% OF PERSONS)

Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,b) Data for 2002 and 2003 are projectionsb) Data for 2002 and 2003 are projections

EVOLUTION OF POVERTY IN LA (MILLION OF PERSONS)EVOLUTION OF POVERTY IN LA (MILLION OF PERSONS)

PoorPoorExtreme PoorExtreme Poor

Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,b) Data for 2002 and 2003 are projectionsb) Data for 2002 and 2003 are projections

EVOLUTION OF POVERTY IN SOME COUNTRIESEVOLUTION OF POVERTY IN SOME COUNTRIESPovertyPoverty

Extreme PovertyExtreme Poverty

Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,a) Urbana) Urban areasareas

PROGRESS IN POVERTY ALLEVIATIONPROGRESS IN POVERTY ALLEVIATION

Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,a) Urbana) Urban areasareas

HUNGER, POVERTY AND CHILD-HUNGER, POVERTY AND CHILD-MALNUTRITION: THREE PHENOMENAMALNUTRITION: THREE PHENOMENALINKED TOGETHERLINKED TOGETHER

Extreme poverty (1999)Extreme poverty (1999)UndernourishedUndernourished population (1998-2000)population (1998-2000)ChildrenChildren withwith malnutrition (1995/20019malnutrition (1995/20019

Source: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, basedSource: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, based on Data from FAO and UNICEFon Data from FAO and UNICEF•• Data of extreme poverty in Chile andData of extreme poverty in Chile and MexicoMexico correspondcorrespond toto thethe year 2000,year 2000,

Guatemala, Nicaragua 1998 andGuatemala, Nicaragua 1998 and DominicanDominican Republic 1997Republic 1997

• Malnutrition and hunger are both, part of a complex andinterrelated system of social, agricultural, economic, politicaland ecological realities. In the poor countries, the currentpolicies of high indebtedness with its debt service; thesubstitution of local food cultivation with export commodities,such as vegetables, tropical fruits and flowers, in order to getdevises for debt services; the exploitation of livestock instead ofsubsistence crops; the submission of local and regionalmarkets to the interests of international monopolies; the forcedbankruptcy of small farmers and peasants facing high interestrates, constant increases in agrochemical and other products;the falling prices of their agricultural products, because ofinternational artificial cheap prices (dumping), thanks tosubsidies in industrialized countries, and green revolution andgenetic modified organism imposed by national andtransnational agricultural policy. Also the natural disasters andglobal warming, and the kind of food aid to those countriessouth of the Sahara which prolongs the situation of dependency,expelled peasants from their lands.

• Extreme poverty, better characterized asperverse poverty (Oswald, 1990): theperversity lies in the fact, that a child beforebeing born, is condemned to be a second classcitizen, due to brain damages, caused by thechronically undernourished and anemic mother.Later on, the child enter into the “Valley ofDeath” (Chávez, 1992):1-2 ½ years, because offragile immune system. In case to survive,growth, intellectual improvement and motricityof the child are seriously damaged, due tochronicle hunger.

UNDERNOURISHED POPULATION IN LAUNDERNOURISHED POPULATION IN LAAND CARIBBEAN: 1998-2000AND CARIBBEAN: 1998-2000

55 million55 million ofof thethe populationpopulationin LA andin LA and CarribeanCarribeansuffersuffer fromfrom hungerhunger

% of% of populationpopulation withwith malnutrition 1998-2000malnutrition 1998-2000Source: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, basedSource: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, based on Data from FAOon Data from FAO•• CorrepondantCorrepondant to simple average of 24 countriesto simple average of 24 countries•• CorrepondantCorrepondant toto ponderate average of 24 countriesponderate average of 24 countries

EVOLUTION OF HUNGER BETWEEN 1990-1992EVOLUTION OF HUNGER BETWEEN 1990-1992AND 1998-2000 IN LA AND CARRIBEAN (%)AND 1998-2000 IN LA AND CARRIBEAN (%)

CountriesCountries withwithhigherhigher ratesrates ofofhungerhunger

CountriesCountries withwithdecreasedecrease ofofhungerhunger

Source: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, basedSource: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, based on Data from FAOon Data from FAO•• CorrepondantCorrepondant to 24 countriesto 24 countries

Inequality in FoodInequality in Food Intake: % ofIntake: % of HungryHungry Persons Persons (between 2200 and 2700 kcl(between 2200 and 2700 kcl))

ZoneZone of mayorof mayorimpactimpact of of inequalinequal accessaccess

Source: CEPAL, 2004, on data from FAOSource: CEPAL, 2004, on data from FAO•• Average of 24 countriesAverage of 24 countries•• Initial data 1992-1994Initial data 1992-1994

EvolutionEvolution ofof InequalInequal ConsumptionConsumption ofof FoodFood (1990-1992 and 1998-2000) in LA (1990-1992 and 1998-2000) in LA

CountriesCountries withwithhigerhiger dispersiondispersion in food in food intakeintake

CountriesCountries withwithdisminutiondisminution ofofdispersiondispersion in food in food intakeintake

Co-Co-Effi-Effi-cientcientofofvari-vari-abi-abi-litylityinincalo-calo-ryrycon-con-sump-sump-tiontionperperCa-Ca-pitapitainin1990-1990-19921992

Source: CEPAL, 2004, basedSource: CEPAL, 2004, based on Data from FAO, Haition Data from FAO, Haiti excluded, becauseexcluded, because itsitscoefficientcoefficient gotgot reducedreduced from 0.7 to 0.47from 0.7 to 0.47

MALNUTRITION OF CHILDREN AT THE END OF THE NINTIESMALNUTRITION OF CHILDREN AT THE END OF THE NINTIES

Ponderal insufficiency: 1995/2001Ponderal insufficiency: 1995/2001(Millenium Goals(Millenium Goals forfor hungerhungerreductionreduction))

InsufficiencyInsufficiency ororreduction ofreduction of growth:growth:19981998

CountriesCountries withwith highesthighestlevellevel ofof cronicalcronicalmalnutritionmalnutritionandand lessless progressprogress

% of% of childrenchildren lessless than 5 yearsthan 5 years oldold withwith moderatemoderate andand severeseveregrowthgrowth delaydelay

% of% of childrenchildren lessless than 5 yearsthan 5 years oldold withwith moderatemoderate andand severe severe ponderal sufficencyponderal sufficency

Source: CEPAL, 2004, UNICEF, 1993 and 2003Source: CEPAL, 2004, UNICEF, 1993 and 2003•• CorrepondantCorrepondant to 23 countriesto 23 countries

Source: CEPAL, 2004, BasedSource: CEPAL, 2004, Based on WHO, Art. 4, 2001on WHO, Art. 4, 2001•• Rural AreasRural Areas•• CorrepondantCorrepondant to 19 countriesto 19 countries

CountriesCountries withwith Hunger has LimitedHunger has Limited FoodFood OfferOffer andand StocksStocks

LevelLevel ofof EngergyEngergy SuppySuppy andand IncidenceIncidence ofof MalnutritionMalnutrition

EvolutionEvolution ofof FoodFood Offer in Offer in LatinLatin AmericaAmerica

20 of 24 countries20 of 24 countriesincreasedincreased thethe foodfoodofferoffer duringduring thethelastlast decadedecade

Source: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, basedSource: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, based on Data from FAOon Data from FAO•• CorrepondantCorrepondant toto variabilityvariability ofof foodfood consumption, expressed in kcalconsumption, expressed in kcal//personperson//day inday in

differentdifferent stratusstratus ofof population. Undernourishment are valuespopulation. Undernourishment are values of 0.2,0.25and 0.35,of 0.2,0.25and 0.35,withwith minimalminimal requierementsrequierements of 1,800 kclof 1,800 kcl//perspers//dayday

CountriesCountries withwithhigherhigher inequalityinequality

CountriesCountries withwithreductionreduction ofof inequalityinequality

INCOME DISTRIBUTION DID NOTINCOME DISTRIBUTION DID NOTIMPROVE THE LAST DECADE, ANDIMPROVE THE LAST DECADE, ANDEITHER THE LAST THREE YEARS IN LAEITHER THE LAST THREE YEARS IN LA

Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,•• Data fromData from urbanurban areas in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Uruguay; fromareas in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Uruguay; from

Argentina isArgentina is Great Buenos AiresGreat Buenos Aires

SOCIAL EXPENDITURE AS % OF GNP IN LA: IN SOCIAL EXPENDITURE AS % OF GNP IN LA: IN 1990-1991; 1996-1997; 2000-20011990-1991; 1996-1997; 2000-2001

TheThe economic economic stagnationstagnation reduced reduced growthgrowth of of social expenditure social expenditure after 1998after 1998

PublicPublic expenditure as % of GNPexpenditure as % of GNPSource: CEPAL, 2004, DivisionSource: CEPAL, 2004, Division of Social Developmentof Social Developmenta) 16 countries, excluded Bolivia and El Salvadora) 16 countries, excluded Bolivia and El Salvador

LatinLatin AmericaAmericaRateRate ofof annualannual growthgrowth

GNP/capGNP/capSocialSocialExpen./capExpen./cap

CountriesCountrieswithwith hihgerhihgersoc. exp.soc. exp.

Social expendSocial expend increase in Laincrease in Lafromfrom US$ 342 in 1990-1991,US$ 342 in 1990-1991,to $473 in 1996-1997 and,to $473 in 1996-1997 and,540 in 2000-2001540 in 2000-2001

CountriesCountries withwithlowerlower rythmrythm ofofsoc. expendsoc. expend..

CountriesCountries withwithreductionreduction ofofsocialsocialexpenditureexpenditure

Average annualAverage annual raterate of social expenditure/capita between 1991-1997of social expenditure/capita between 1991-1997

AveragAverageeannualannualraterate ofofsocialsocialexpendiexpenditure/capture/capitaitabetweebetween 1991-n 1991-19971997

LatinLatin America (16 Countries): Average ofAmerica (16 Countries): Average ofAnnualAnnual RateRate of Social Expenditure/capitaof Social Expenditure/capitabetween 1991-1997 and 1998-2001between 1991-1997 and 1998-2001

Source: CEPAL, 2004, DivisionSource: CEPAL, 2004, Division of Social Development, Data Base aboutof Social Development, Data Base aboutSocial Expenditure (excluded Bolivia and El Salvador)Social Expenditure (excluded Bolivia and El Salvador)

IncreaseIncrease

IncreaseIncreaseIncreaseIncrease

IncreaseIncrease

IncreaseIncrease

Total socialTotal socialexpenditureexpenditure

Expend. inExpend. inHealthHealth

Exp. inExp. ineducationeducation

Expend. In SocialExpend. In SocialSecuritySecurity andandAssistenceAssistence

Expend. inExpend. inShelter &Shelter &OthersOthers

EvolutionEvolution of Social Expenditure as % ofof Social Expenditure as % ofGDP in LatinGDP in Latin America (16 countriesAmerica (16 countries))

So-So-cialcialEx-Ex-pen-pen-di-di-tu-tu-rereasas%%ofofGDPGDP

After 1998, the bestAfter 1998, the bestprotected sector wasprotected sector waseducation, a cleareducation, a clearindicatorindicator ofofincreasingincreasingimportanceimportance forforexpansionexpansion andandimproveimprove ofof qualityquality

Source: CEPAL, 2004, DivisionSource: CEPAL, 2004, Division of Social Development, Data Base aboutof Social Development, Data Base aboutSocial ExpenditureSocial Expenditure

Social Expend in EducationSocial Expend in EducationSocial Expend in HealthSocial Expend in HealthSoc. Exp. In Social securitySoc. Exp. In Social security andand AssistanceAssistanceGDPGDP

Argentina had a procyclicArgentina had a procyclic charactercharacter of social expenditureof social expenditurein Eduactionin Eduaction andand Health, andHealth, and during 2001-2002 crisis aduring 2001-2002 crisis acountercycliccountercyclic behaviorbehavior toto contrararest social effectscontrararest social effects

RateRateofofAnnualAnnualVaria-Varia-tiontion

Source: CEPAL, 2004, Official Data comingSource: CEPAL, 2004, Official Data coming from Argentinafrom Argentina

WomenWomen

MenMen

ConstructionConstruction Transportation,Transportation,CommunicationCommunication

AgricultureAgriculture IndustryIndustry FinanceFinance SocialSocialservicesservices

CommerceCommercePersonalPersonalServicesServices

TotalTotal

CompositionComposition ofof workers by sex andworkers by sex and activitiesactivities

Source: CEPAL, 2004, Social Panorama 2000-2001, Estimation done on Data fromSource: CEPAL, 2004, Social Panorama 2000-2001, Estimation done on Data from thethe DivisionDivision ofof Population. CentralPopulation. CentralAmericaAmerica andand CaribbeanCaribbean Demography (CELADE, in SpanishDemography (CELADE, in Spanish))

PersonsPersons withoutwithout properproper income by sex, age,income by sex, age,urban-ruralurban-rural

MenMen WomenWomen

Source: CEPAL, 2004, UnitySource: CEPAL, 2004, Unity ofof WomenWomen andand Development, Data Base fromDevelopment, Data Base from TabulationTabulation ofof EnquiryEnquiry ofof Household in eachHousehold in eachCountryCountry

RateRate ofof Unionization in 5 CountriesUnionization in 5 Countries ofofLatinLatin America (2001)America (2001)

Source: CEPAL, 2004, Official Data comingSource: CEPAL, 2004, Official Data coming fromfrom theirtheir CountriesCountries

POVERTY IN HOUSEHOLDS WITH BOTH HUSBANDSPOVERTY IN HOUSEHOLDS WITH BOTH HUSBANDSAND WITH ECONOMIC SUPPORT OF WOMEN (%)AND WITH ECONOMIC SUPPORT OF WOMEN (%)

SuppSupp..WithoutWithoutsuppsupp

Source. CEPAL, 2004, UnitySource. CEPAL, 2004, Unity oror WomenWomen andand DevelopmentDevelopment

Non-Paid Domestic Work, Total Workers, Sex and Urban-Rural

MenMen MenMen MenMen MenMen MenMen MenMenWomenWomen WomenWomen WomenWomen WomenWomen WomenWomen WomenWomen

Total workersTotal workers PaidPaidTotal workersTotal workers PaidPaidDomesticsDomestics withoutwithout paypay DomesticsDomestics withoutwithout paypay

Source: CEPAL, 2004, UnitySource: CEPAL, 2004, Unity ofof WomenWomenandand DevelopmentDevelopment

WomenWomen MenMen

OtherOtherActiviActivi--tiesties

Social,Social,commucommu--niatrianniatrianactivitiesactivities

Non-paidNon-paiddomesticdomesticworkwork

PoorPoor householdhousehold

PaidPaidworkwork

PersonalPersonalActivitesActivites

OtherOtherActiviActivi--tiesties

Social,Social,commucommu--niatrianniatrianactivitiesactivities

Non-paidNon-paiddomesticdomesticworkwork

PaidPaidworkwork

PersonalPersonalActivitesActivites

Non poorNon poor householdhousehold

Source: CEPAL, 2004, ofSource: CEPAL, 2004, of WomenWomen andand Development, NationalDevelopment, National EnquiryEnquiry aboutabout quantificationquantification ofof LifeLifeLevels in Nicaragua, 1998Levels in Nicaragua, 1998

Inequal Time DistributionInequal Time Distribution insideinside ofof thethe HouseholdsHouseholdsin Nicaragua, Poorin Nicaragua, Poor and Non-Poorand Non-Poor FamiliesFamilies

MORE THAN 13 YEARSMORE THAN 13 YEARS

IncomeIncome ofof menmen andand women: total andwomen: total and with morewith morethan 13 yearsthan 13 years ofof instruction (%)instruction (%)

GenderGender Differences in IncomeDifferences in Income

Source: CEPAL, 2004, UnitySource: CEPAL, 2004, Unity ofof WomenWomen andand DevelopmentDevelopment

IndexIndex ofof Women’s Poverty in urban and rural areasWomen’s Poverty in urban and rural areasPoorPoor Non PoorNon Poor

Source: CEPAL, 2004, UnitySource: CEPAL, 2004, Unity ofof WomenWomen andand Development, Data Base fromDevelopment, Data Base from TabulationTabulation ofof EnquiryEnquiry ofof Household in eachHousehold in eachCountryCountry

DIPUTIESDIPUTIES SENATORSSENATORS UNICAMERICALUNICAMERICALDIPUTIESDIPUTIES

Source: CEPAL, 2004, ProgrammSource: CEPAL, 2004, Programm onon WomenWomen andand Development,Development,WomenWomen’’s Leadership, April 2001s Leadership, April 2001

LastLast electionelection

EVOLUTION OF WOMEN IN LEGISLATIVEEVOLUTION OF WOMEN IN LEGISLATIVE

INSTITUTIONS AND CONFIDENCE IN LAFor the groups, institutions or persons in this list, can you tell me how much confidence you have inearch?% responding “a lot” and “some”unweighted average of all countries

0102030405060708090

Church

Military

Presid

ent

Telev

ision

Police

Judic

iary

Congre

ss

Politic

al part

ies

1996* 2003 2004

Source: Latinobarómetro

Source: Latinobarómetro; EIU * By 2004 population + No data

IMPORTANCE OF DEMOCRACYDemocracy is preferable to any other kind of government,% agreeing, in all countries

020

406080

100120140

160180

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Unweighted

Weighted

GOVERNMENT AND DEMOCRACYHow satisfied are you with the way democracy works in your country?% responding “not very satisfied” and “not at all satisfied”

020406080

100

Peru

Paragua

y

Ecuador

Mexico

Bolivia

Argentin

a

Colombia Braz

il

Central

America Chile

Venezue

la

Uruguay

1996 2003 2004

Source: Latinobarómetro

VictimHave you or someone in your family been a victim of crime, or known of an act of corruption or of drug consumption in the past 12 months?% responding "yes" (unweighted average of all countries)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: Latinobarómetro

Drug Consumption

Corruption

Vict of crime

Methodology for Evaluation of UN Millenium Goals by CEPAL

• Poverty is a complex social and economic phenomena (CEPAL) and isculturally conditioned.

• Poverty contains “a nucleus of despotic irreductible character” (A. Sen,1983).

• “Poverty is defined as a global value of income shortfall” and to reducepoverty, it is necessary to combine the economic growth with the reductionof income gap inside and between countries, alphabetization, schoolefficiency, health, poverty alleviation programs, employment, productivity,gender equity, overcoming hunger thanks to access to full basic food basket,increase of family monetary income, number of family members, rural-urbanarea and human capital” (CEPAL, 2004:16-23). CEPAL includes also othermeans defined by Forster, Greer & Thorbecke.

• The “isopoverty model” requires first of all reduction of internal gap and theneconomic growth. For instance, Brazil should reduce extreme poverty from 4%to 2%, but would require 86% of economic growth - 4%/ year, equivalentgrowth of the last 20 years- or 48 years within the present conditions. Inorder to reduce in 7 years to a half extreme poverty, Gini index should bereduced by 2.5 (p.37).

• In present conditions, only 7 -Argentina, Chile, Colombia, DominiqueRepublic, Honduras, Panama, Uruguay- from 18 countries in LA will achieveMillenium Goals. Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru and Venezuela –Bolivia and SanSalvador severe problems- have to change their policy.

UN MILLENIUM GOALS TO REDUCE EXTREME POVERTYUN MILLENIUM GOALS TO REDUCE EXTREME POVERTY

ProjectionProjection basedbased onon economiceconomic growthgrowth ofof thethe five best yearsfive best years duringduring thethe periodperiod of 1990-2002of 1990-2002

Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,a) Urbana) Urban AreasAreas

Millenium GoalsMillenium Goals forfor ErradicationErradication ofof ChildChildMalnutritionMalnutrition

InfantInfant malnutritionmalnutrition(moderate(moderate--severe ponderal insufficiencysevere ponderal insufficiency

Do notDo notfullfillfullfill

Do notDo not fullfillfullfill

Do fullfillDo fullfillMilleniumMilleniumgoalsgoals

Do fullfillDo fullfillMilleniumMilleniumgoalsgoals

Do fullfillDo fullfillWorld SummitWorld SummitForFor Infants, 1990Infants, 1990

Do fullfillDo fullfillWorldWorldSummitSummitForFor Food,Food,19961996

Source: CEPAL, 2004Source: CEPAL, 2004

COUNTRIES REDUCED SUFFICIENTLY POVERTY COUNTRIES REDUCED SUFFICIENTLY POVERTY BETWEEN 1990 AND 2002 IN ORDER TO ACHIEVEBETWEEN 1990 AND 2002 IN ORDER TO ACHIEVEMILLENIUM GOALSMILLENIUM GOALS

Source: CEPAL, 2004,Source: CEPAL, 2004,a) Urbana) Urban AreasAreas

PossibilitiesPossibilities toto Achieve MilleniumAchieve MilleniumGoalsGoals forfor ErradicatonErradicaton ofof HungerHunger

CountriesCountries withwithIncreaseIncrease ofofhunger (%)hunger (%)

CountriesCountries withwithdecreasedecreasein hunger (%)in hunger (%)

CountriesCountries ableabletoto fullfill Milleniumfullfill Millenium Goals Goals forfor HungerHunger

% of% of malnourishedmalnourished persons in 1990-1992persons in 1990-1992

Source: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, basedSource: CEPAL, 2004, estimation by CEPAL, based on Data from FAOon Data from FAO•• CorrepondantCorrepondant to 24 countriesto 24 countries•• Blue color indicates, thatBlue color indicates, that thisthis countriescountries willwill alsoalso fulfillfulfill goalsgoals established by FAOestablished by FAO

Esti-Esti-ma-ma-ted %ted %ofofpopu-popu-lationlationwithwithMal-Mal-Nutri-Nutri-tiontioninin20152015

49.64--TOTAL

257Poverty, infant death 15

2.4-2.4External and internal debt service 14

0.300.3Public Deficit 13

2.24.87.0Educational inefficiency, 12

1.40.62.0Science and Technology, brain drain 11

0.8800.88Foreign Enterprises capital return 10

2.102.1Tax debts, discretional arrangementsand legal fault 9

51520Tax Evasion 8

0.860.861.73Trusts (out of official control) 7

6.81.2%8.0%Dubious Privatizations and later rescuewith public funds 6

2.55.88.3Excessive Public Administration 5

6.70.26.9Corruption 4

5.00.55.5Crime, violence 3

7.010.0(1983)

3.0(2003)

Reduction in Public Investment 2

4.56.511.0Environment 1

GDP Loss in Mexico

[1 SEMARNAT, 2004, Include oil extraction minus reinvestment; deforestation, loss of biodiversity, natural disaster; erosion, waterpollution, aquifer depletion and pollution, waste and hazardous waste[2 INEGI, 1983 and 2004[3 Estimated by Citizen Council against Violence, 2004[4 World Bank, estimations 2003[5 Estimations based on: Budget adjustment obliged by Congress: Pension to 9,300 minor employee and only 0.009% of high, levelfunctionaries equivalent to 84,000 official jobs of minor category, increase of personal services by executive during 2003/2004: 11.8%[6 World Bank, and Congress 1998-2004[7 Estimations based on National Lottery, Vamos Mexico, SSA, Congress, 2004[8 Estimations, based on data from SHCP, FMI, 2004, estimated informal economy represents 12% GDP and does not pay any tax,formal unemployment 612,209 persons in December 2000 to 1,092’692 persons in June 2004 (increase of 78.5% in 3 ½ years, plus1.2 million new labour force /year. 1% of GDP creates 200,000 new employments (Mario Di Constanza, August, 2004)[9 SHCP, FMI, World Bank, 2004[10 FMI and INEGI, 2004[11 Estimations based on data and estimations from CONACYT, Congress, INEGI, 2004[12 Estimation based on data from SEP, 2004, INEGI, 2004, World Bank, 2004, UNDP, 2004[13 Congress, SHCP, 2004[14 SHCP, Bank of Mexico, FMI, 2004, during the first semester 2004: 88,844.1 million pesos MN paid for internal (33054.7 millionMN) and external (36,838 pesos MN) debt, other debt services: 18,951.4 million pesos MN[15 Estimation based on data from SEDESOL, Presidential Information, UNDP, World Bank, 2004

100643,360Total GDP in million dollars

0.2GDP growth/capita: 2000-2004

1.5/yearGDP growth 2000-2004

3.0(estimated)

GDP growth 2004

68.4440.06Services (2003)

26.0167,27Industrial Sector (2003)

5.636.03Primary Sector (2003)

10.667.98Pensions (AFORE, 2003)

1.328,500Tourism

18.0115,810Exportation of 10 MNE

3.8925,000Money Laundry

0.956,100Oil

15.096,504Taxes: Incomes

0.42,651Foreign Direct Investment

2.114,000Migrants

% GDPIncomeEstimated Incomes in 2004and 2003

[1 Estimations based on Bank of Mexico and INEGI, 2004[2 SHCP, 2004 and Institute for Foreign Investment[3 SHCP, Consumption Tax 3.5% of GDP; salaries of employed 56% (increase in 1 year: 14.9%); taxes of enterprises 44% (with121,000 million pesos of fiscal credit and 29, 598 million pesos not posible to cash, 24,910 legally protected and lost forgovernment[4 PEMEX and Bank of Mexico, 2004 (estimated by exportation between January and June)[5 FMI, 2004, Leopoldo Solis, a recognized researchers estimates more than 45,000 million[6 Mexican tourism outside of the country: 6,100 md giving a real balance of 2,800 million dollars[7 INEGI, 2003[8 Estimated by Bank of Mexico,2004 and revised by FMI and CEPAL

s.d.14.215’700,000Less than 1,000 pesos

s.d.14.616’027,000More than 1,000 pesos

630.0773,481More than 1 Million pesos

% of NationalSaving

% of Mexican populationNumber of bank accountsAccount

Bank of Mexico, 2004

Bank Savings

Social Gap in Mexico

Social Gap in Mexico

10.018.452.7Workers

78.040.30.23Very Rich

% of FinancialSavings

% of Nat. Wealth% of PopulationConcept

INEGI, 2004 and Bank of Mexico, 2004

Natural Risks in Mexico: Volcanoes, Flood, Hurricanes, Seism, Landslides

2931.9Very Low

1314.3Low

2224.2Regular

1011.0High

2628.6Very high

% of PopulationAffected

Persons(millions)

Grade of Risk

Ministry of Interior, 2004

Risk of Hurricans

5156.1Very Low

2022Low

99.9Regular

1213.2High

88.8Very high

% of PopulationAffected

Persons(millions)

Grade of Risk

Ministry of Interior, 2004

Basic HumanRights : Life

Health

Food

Shelder

Education

SexEmployment

Sustainable environment

Free PrehisionsExpression

NonviolentConflict

Resolution

Basic HumanRights: Life

Health

Food

Shelder

Education

SexEmployment

Sustainable environment

Free PrehisionsExpression

NonviolentConflict

Resolution

EquityEquity

SustainabilitySustainability

JusticeJustice

DemocracyDemocracy

VulnerabilityVulnerability

RisksRisks

PeacePeaceBiodiversityBiodiversity

Conflict &Conflict &ChangesChanges