5 Perrakis - MPB Recent Obs - WFC2012wildfire/2012/PDFs/Dan Perrakis.pdf · 3 Current MPB Outbreak...
Transcript of 5 Perrakis - MPB Recent Obs - WFC2012wildfire/2012/PDFs/Dan Perrakis.pdf · 3 Current MPB Outbreak...
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Recent Observations of Fire Behaviour
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Dan Perrakis, WMB Dana Hicks, WMB Rick Lanoville, FBS Steve Taylor, NRCan, Can. For. Serv. Nathalie Lavoie, QC MRNF Mike Pritchard, WMB Rick Kubian, Parks Canada Agency
Mountain Pine Beetle- Affected Stands
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Overview • Current MPB outbreak status • Recent observations study – Rate of Spread model
• Inferences regarding Headfire Intensity
• Questions and discussion
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Current MPB Outbreak • BC: 18.1 - 20 million ha affected (2012)
• 53% of pine volume killed (2011) • Projected to reach 60 % by 2021
• AB: 6 million ha ‘at risk’ (2010) • Millions of ha in US (WA, CO, WY, etc.) • (BC) Outbreak extent decreasing from 2005-2007 peak
• Current outbreak front is NE/NW (BC), boreal (AB and rest of Canada)
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Peak Year of MPB Attack:
-Also shows where red- attack is still present
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The
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• What about fire?
• Example of extreme fire behaviour in old grey-attack long ago:
• Sleeping Child Fire (1961, Montana), burning in lodgepole pine stands affected by MPB attacks in 1928-1932.
• “In spite of rapid initial attack”, lightning fire grew to 3640 ha within 24 hours.
• credit: M. Alexander – photo in Jenkins et al. (2012)
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Recent Observations Study – 15 observations (14 modeled) • BC air attack photos (photo-interp. by R. Lanoville) – 9 fire runs • Wildfire monitoring/observation (S. Harvey & D. Hicks) – 3 runs • Experimental burns (Carrott Lake, Kootenay Nat. Park) – 3 runs
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12 wildfire ROS observations 3 PB ROS obs.
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9 G40100 (2005)
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Repeated evidence for continuous crown fires in red/grey attack lodgepole pine & pine/spruce, <1 to 6 years post-MPB
C20650 (2009)
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cISIbeaROS )1( )( ×−−×=(FCFDG 1992)
⎥⎦
⎤⎢⎣
⎡
×+××= −
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31.5138.005039.0
1093.419.91208.0 meeISI mW
(Van Wagner 1987)
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ROS (m
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ISI
MPB Red-‐attack observations
MPB Grey-‐attack observations
MPB Old attack observation
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MPB Red-‐attack observations
MPB Grey-‐attack observations
MPB Old attack observation
• MPB-attacked stands ~2.7 times faster ROS than C-3 • r2 = 0.394 • No clear pattern suggesting faster ROS in red-attack vs grey-attack • Crowning threshold of ISI ≥ 7 suggested • Somewhat similar to M-3 (60%DF) at ISI < 30
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C-3 fuel type
C-2 fuel type
• Compare with C-2, C-3 scatter plots...
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• Observed vs Predicted compared with C-3 model
• Also 2 photo-interp. points in green conifer fuels (C-2, C-3)
• Suggests ok methodology
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C-‐2/C-‐3 obs.
Model 1
Obs=Pred
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Headfire Intensity (kW/m
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Initial Spread Index (ISI)
FBP Fuel Type (FT):
FT Modifier (M):(if applicable)
FT:
M:
FT:
M:
FT:
M:
%Con, %cur, or %DF %C, c, DF %C, c, DF %C, c, DFGFL: t/ha
FMC: %
C6 CBH: m
• Headfire intensity?? • HFI = 300 x TFC x ROS • Compare between fuel types • M-3 (60%DF) likely ‘first guess’?
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Lush green herbaceous understory
(Lower fire risk)
Absent understory (Possibly surface fire only – depends on remaining green
pines or other conifers)
Conifer understory (fast rate of spread,
high spotting potential, high intensity)
Importance of Understory Structure (Grey)
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• Legacy in BC will be grey- and old grey-attack MPB-killed stands
• e.g. Greer Creek fire (2010) • High intensity, lower ROS?
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• In sum: • ROS in 0-6 year post-MPB Pl 2.7 x faster than C-3
• No consistent difference between ROS of red- & grey-attack (but check understory, remnant live overstory)
• Crowning threshold ~ ISI 7 • No new HFI findings, but likely closer to M-3 (60%DF) than C-3