5-Health-Michael-Obersteiner-GEOBENE (NXPowerLite ... · PDF fileUniversity UNSYIAH, TDMRC Mr....
Transcript of 5-Health-Michael-Obersteiner-GEOBENE (NXPowerLite ... · PDF fileUniversity UNSYIAH, TDMRC Mr....
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GEOBENE Benefit Assessment Now, Next and Emerging
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The world in 2030 will be a world of change:• 7.5 billion people• temperature increase > 1 degree• little wilderness, new diseases....
… governments will be asking for information… observations systems need 20 years to
be designed, tested, implemented… the time to start their design is now
… and we need to document today‘s baselineof a world with only „small“ change
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Objective of GEOBENE
… to develop methodologies (Ph1) and analytical tools (Ph2) to assess societal benefits of GEO and to perform benefit
assessments (Ph3).
P.S.: We spent most of our time building our geo-spatial DB
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Output
Outcome Impact
CBA
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COSTS BENEFITS
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Input
Out
put
Effectiveness /Productivity
X
Efficiency
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CooperationScenario
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Most operationalarea: weather
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2nd most obvious areas:Water &Agriculture:still mostlyin planning!!?( huge benefits …)
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CASE I: Value of Land cover uncertainty reduction
• Biofuels – Food Security – Water - GHG – Ecosystem Trade-off
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The global level of agreement among the four datasets using complete IGBP classification
McCallum et al. 2006
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Land Constraint World ScenariosLand Constraint World Scenarios
GLC-2000 agricultural land: 2 363 M ha
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MODIS-2000 agricultural land: 1 937 M ha
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GLC-2000
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MODIS 2000
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IFPRI – percentage cropland
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Ramankutty/Foley – percentage cropland
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Wanted to assimilate the new GLOBCOVER product
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Scenario to compute value of land availability uncertaintyScenario to compute value of land availability uncertainty
GLOBIOM calculations2030 estimated food and wood demand
+Substitution of up to 10% of transport oil energy consumption
according to IPCC/GGI A2r baseline scenario 2030 in each of the 11 regionsby ethanol.
Variantsa) WITH additional land (explicit supply function)
b) WITOUT additional land
+ avoided deforestation
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Ethanol ConsumptionEthanol Consumption
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AgLand Use ScenarioAgLand Use Scenario
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Water UseWater Use
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GHG BalanceGHG Balance
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Crop PricesCrop Prices
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III. Illustrative applicationIII. Illustrative application
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Land availability uncertainty is a USD 350 billion
Gas bill Question in the scenario
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III. Illustrative applicationIII. Illustrative application
Further applications:
Ethanol production x Food security (Obesity)
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Undernourished childrenUndernourished children
Source: Keyzer 2006
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Human CostHuman Cost
Further applications:
Ethanol production x Food security (Obesity)
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CASE II: Value of Climate sensitivity uncertainty reduction
• Energy Investment Problem
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Observations Benefits Chain
Cloud ObservationNASA CloudSat
Global ClimateModels
Long-term Emission Reduction
TargetClimate Policy
CO2 “prices”Optimal
Technology Choice
Investments
Profit
Δ
Δ
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Meeting the 2°C objective
Source: Mainshausen, Hare 2004
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Net present value costs for atmospheric CO2 stabilization by the year 2100
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
22.5
300 350 400 450 500 550 600
MESSAGE
Green ~ BECCS is includedBlue ~ fossil CCS onlyRed ~ no CCS
Trillions of 2000 US$
Source: Azar et al. 2007
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Global Energy Portfolio
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Prim
ary
Ener
gy (E
J)TIMER
0
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Prim
ary
Ener
gy (E
J)
GET
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Prim
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gy (E
J)
MESSAGE
-5
-3
-1
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC)
MESSAGE
GET
TIMER
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Real Options Model in the Power Generation Setup
add CCS module
switc
h ON
CCS
mod
ule
switc
h OFF
CCS
mod
ule
options to addCarbonCapturing andSequestrationmodule andswitch it on/offduring the operation
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Purpose of the Real Options Approach
Maximizing of expected discounted profit facing uncertainty due to incomplete information on future prices and find:
1. Optimal time for investment in CCS module2. Optimal control of the CCS module
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Results from the Real Options Model
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Prices Profit distributions
…
Electricity
CO2
Fuel
Real Options Model
…
Coal
Biomass
Wind
CVaR Portfolio Model
RobustInvestment
Strategy
Combined Real Options & Risk Management Framework
Robust Investment Strategy describes shares of different technologies in the investor’s portfolio according to risk aversion preferences
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Optimal Maximin Portfolios and 95%-CVaRs
1.62
1.64
1.66
1.68
1.7
1.72
1.74
1.76
Scenarios3, 1, 2
Scenarios1-3, 2-3, 1-2
Scenario1-2-3
CO2 Price Scenarios
0 20 40Time
CO
2 P
rice
Impact of Uncertainty Reduction on Returns
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Optimal Maximin Portfolios and 95%-CVaRs
1.6
1.62
1.64
1.66
1.68
1.7
1.72
1.74
1.76
Scenarios3, 1, 2
Scenarios1-3, 2-3, 1-2
Scenario1-2-3
CO2 Price Scenarios
0 20 40Time
CO
2 P
rice
Impact of Uncertainty Reduction on Returns
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Optimal Maximin Portfolios and 95%-CVaRs
1.6
1.62
1.64
1.66
1.68
1.7
1.72
1.74
1.76
Scenarios3, 1, 2
Scenarios1-3, 2-3, 1-2
Scenario1-2-3
CO2 Price Scenarios
0 20 40Time
CO
2 P
rice
Impact of Uncertainty Reduction on Returns
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CASE III: Banda Aceh Case Study• Determine value of information used by Space Charter• Assess value of information in disaster recovery – Banda
Aceh case study
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Space Charter• ESA reports that 210 individual maps
combining over 19 different satellite data sources were used towards the International Charter’s mission for the Boxing Day Tsunami.
• Thanks to the availability of a pool of satellite imagery through the Charter, damage assessment evaluations have accelerated recovery processes for infrastructure rebuilding (houses for example).
http://unosat.web.cern.ch/unosat/
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Relief Effort
• According to the RAN Database (Recovery Aceh Nias rand.brr.go.id), as of 10.01.08 a total of 490 agencies have commited 3.8 billion USD.
• Among this vast amount of support are various types of Earth Observation (EO) data (ie. orthophotos, satellite scenes and the creation of a group – SimCenter, to administer this data).
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Preliminary Efforts• Accomplished initial round of
interviews• Met with 20 different groups,
over 50 people• All organizations using to
some extent spatial data• Identified organizations with
specific examples for further analysis
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Org. Type Organisation Contact
Nat. Gov BRR, Pusdatin Mr. E. Darajat
Nat. Gov BRR, Bakosurtanal Mr. Darmawan
University UNSYIAH, GIS & RS Mr. M. Affan
University UNSYIAH, Vice Rector Mr. Dhalan
University UNSYIAH, TDMRC Mr. Dirhamsyah
Local Gov BPN Mr. G. Suprato
Local Gov AGDC Mr. S. Gan
NGO ABD - ETESP Mr. E. Van Der Zee
NGO Sea Defence Cons. Mr. J. Kraaij
UN UN ORC Mr. H. Busa
UN UNICEF Mr. B. Cahyanto
UN UNFAO Mr. Sugianto
NGO LOGICA Mr. D. Hurst
NGO GTZ-SLGSR Mr. M. Widodo
NGO ManGEONAD Mr. T. Rehman
NGO Leuser Int. Fnd. (YLI) Ms. D. R. Sari
NGO Flora Fauna Int. (FFI) Mr. Syaifuddin
NGO Sogreah Mr. B. Coiron
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Preliminary FindingsSeveral main issues repeating
(ranked)…• Frequency of receiving data low• Access to data• Need for more/better trained staff• Need for higher resolution data in
some cases• Sharing data - Vendor restrictions• Downloading speed• A lot of uninformed decisions are
made => inefficient allocation of 3.8 Billion $
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Conclusions
• Integrated Long-run benefits can be measured in the trillions - demand pull
• Operational GLOBAL GEOSS …. Supply push is a “?”