4Q16 Earnings Conference Call February 17th, 2017 · 4Q16 Earnings Conference Call February 17th,...
Transcript of 4Q16 Earnings Conference Call February 17th, 2017 · 4Q16 Earnings Conference Call February 17th,...
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4Q16 Earnings Conference Call
February 17th, 2017
OPERATOR: Good morning, everyone and thank you for waiting. Welcome to
Banco do Brasil 4Q2016 earnings conference call. This event is being
recorded and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the Company
presentation. After this there will be a Q&A session. At that time further
instructions will be given. Should any participant need assistance during this
call, please press *0 to reach the operator. This conference call is also being
broadcast live via webcast into Banco do Brasil website at www.bb.com.br/ir,
where the presentation is also available. Participants may view the slides in
any order they wish. Before proceeding let me mention that this presentation
may include references and statements, planned synergies, estimated
projections and forward-looking strategies concerning Banco do Brasil, its
associated and affiliated companies and subsidiaries. These expectations are
highly dependent on market conditions and on the performance of domestic
and international markets, the Brazilian economy and banking system. Banco
do Brasil is not responsible for updating any estimate in this presentation. With
us today we have Mr. Paulo Rogério Caffarelli, CEO, Mr. Alberto Monteiro,
CFO, and Mr. Bernardo Rothe, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Caffarelli, you
may now begin.
CAFFARELLI – Thank you. Good morning. First of all I’d like to thank you for
taking part of this conference. I asked to Alberto and Bernardo to say a few
words for you, before starting the presentation. Just tell you that I’m really
confident that Banco do Brasil is in the right path to reach the profitability
compatible to its potential. We already took the first steps. 2016 was a tough
year but we have signs showing that economic improvement is underway
allowing that our current measures became better results. I’ve been telling you
about reaching our peers profitability levels. I believe we are already on the
course and we’ll continue on it 2017. Our NII will increase above the market
average this year. Fee income growth will be between 6.0 and 9.0% in 2017.
We are raising our customer’s portfolio profitability with the digital channels
growth. Our goal is to end this year with 4.5 million individual [ 02:56] in the
digital model, which generates 44.0% higher margins than the traditional
model. Technology is the present and the future for us. And I can assure you
that Banco do Brasil has the best digital solutions in the country. For that
reason we call ourselves Mais Que Digital which means “we go beyond the
digital solutions currently provided in the market.” I also would like to highlight
that we have elected 2017 as the year of customer service, the customer best
experience in the basis of relationship we desire.
Moving on to expenses, I’ve done some important restructuring closing
branches, opening digital offices, process improvement and over 9,000
employees retirement. These will keep our administrative expenses under this
year inflation. This is our main target because we intend to maintain the same
value that will expand that year. We are estimating some fee between 1.5%-
4.5%, but we intend to stay near 1.5%. Provisions will also reduce between
30.0% and 44.0% compared to 2016. Another issue is capital. About capital, in
just one year we grew 140 bps, we see a consistent core capital growth,
quarter after quarter. In agribusiness we estimate an increase in the rural
portfolio between 6.0% and 9.0% with the expectation of having the best
harvest ever. I believe so hard in this. I also see great opportunities for the
capital market in 2017 as the macroeconomic scenario gets better naturally,
companies be more confident to look for funding in the capital market in Brazil.
That and equity as well. With that said I want to reassure my commitment with
the ROE improvement. I said yesterday to the press that we are focusing on
profitability not in marketshare, this is very important because in a financial
market you need to choose and we chose profitability, OK? 2016 isolated
factors that impacted our result tend to decrease and we’ll resume its
economic growth and we consolidated all the measures to improve BB
efficiency. For finishing, I would like to emphasize our commitment, my
commitment, the board commitment with our employees with these five pillars:
profitability, efficiency, capital, credit recovery, customer experience and digital
solutions. I can assure to you that Banco do Brasil will have a better result in
2017. Thank you very much, have a good day and have a good weekend.
Thank you. Bye bye.
OPERATOR – Mr. Alberto, you may proceed.
ALBERTO MONTEIRO – Good morning everyone. I’d briefly like to introduce
myself before we go to [07:06] details of our figures. I am Alberto Monteiro, I
have been a carreer in Banco do Brasil banker until 2009 when I left to accept
the challenge [07:17]. I was invited to rejoin Banco do Brasil as CFO and took
the position this January year. With 26 years of service in Banco do Brasil and
I have experience in this private sector, I believe I’m uniquely positioned in this
role. My team and I are committed to assist Mr. Caffarelli, our CEO, in
achieving the Bank’s goals of increasing ROE, improving efficiency. I would
like to hand over to Bernardo Rothe to start our conference call. Thank you
very much.
BERNARDO ROTHE – Good morning everyone. Thank you for participating in
our conference call. I would like to start on page 3 of our presentation, where
we have the highlights for 2016. Starting with pre-tax and pre-provision
earnings that increased by 7.3%. Our NII grew by 13.0%. Fee income 6.8%
growth. Administrative expenses totally under control and growing below
inflation at 3.5%, getting to a cost-income ratio reduction to 39.7%.
Slide 4, we have the net income of the Bank, R$ 80.0 billion the accounted net
income and 7.2% the adjusted net income. At the bottom of the slide we have
the profitability ratio of the bank. The adjusted ROE finished the year with
7.5%. Shareholders ROE where we took out the denominator R$ 8.1 billion
that’s considered capital that is not included, the cost of that debt is not
included in the net income so if we do that calculation we get to 9.8% ROE.
Slide 5, pre-tax and pre-provision earnings growing from 14-15 by 16.8%, 15-
16 by 7.3%, making 24.4% growth in 2 years that all the work we have been
doing to improve profitability is reflected here in pre-tax and pre-provision
earnings.
Slide number 6, market ratios. Earnings per share ended the year at 2.57.
Bloomberg projections based on sell side analysts estimates is 3.93 [09:58]
earnings per share. Dividend yield 4Q, 3.01, the estimate for 2017 by
Bloomberg is 3.16. Price earnings 12 months 9.74 in 4Q and the projections
they gave 8.08. And price book value 0.9 in 4Q, and 0.95 is the estimation for
2017 by Bloomberg.
Slide number 7, funding. We reached R$ 613.0 billion in funding, a decrease
of 8.3% compared to December 15, in line with the decrease in the portfolio.
The cost of this funding reached 63.7% of Selic rates in December.
Slide number 8, loan portfolio. We have a decrease of 11.3% to reach R$
780.0 billion, I would like to highlight here the performance of agribusiness with
a growth of 2.8% basically coming from a decrease in agroindustrial, the rural
credit grew by 8.6% and individuals growing 1.5%. These 2 portfolios are
growing participation in the total portfolio of the bank.
Slide number 9, talking about individuals portfolio. We are concentrated in
lower risk lines of credit, that’s where we see growth coming, mortgages that
grew 9.5% considering also the mortgage with companies. The marketshare is
7.9 for individuals and payroll we have 0 growth, stable portfolio at 60.5%
marketshare 23.0%. Salary loans grew by 3.5% to 19.3 and auto loans are still
decreasing, almost 26.0% decrease reaching R$ 6.2 billion. In terms of
delinquency ratios we can see that in mortgage is 1.47, a small increase from
2016, payroll loans 1.31, was only one that didn’t change. Auto loans still at
0.98 and salary loans 2.88%.
In slide number 10, portfolio of companies in the broad concept. We have a
decrease of 19.2% to R$ 294.0 billion, most of this decrease came from very
small-small companies portfolio that decreased to 23.8%, reaching R$ 68.7
billion. And the rest of the portfolio had a decrease of 17.6%.
Slide number 11. Agribusiness. We have here the breakdown by agroindustrial
and rural credits. As you can see most of the decrease came in the
agroindustrial pretty much in line with the behavior of the loans to companies.
Rural credit grew by 6.6% in 1 year. Brazil number one market participation of
almost 60.0% and working capital finance we use mitigators reaching 64.2% of
the total working capital. For the harvest 16-17 we grew the finance of the
harvest we grew 8.0% compared to the harvest 15-16, with disbursements up
to R$ 47.1 billion. For the next harvest, 17-18, we start with free working
capital for this particular harvest increasing the amount of the disbursement to
R$ 12.0 billion, R$ 1,7 billion more than last year.
Slide 12, we start to talk about credit quality. Starting with delinquency ratios,
we reached 3.29 at the end of December for the total ratio of the Bank.
Compared to 5.83 in companies, 2.67 individuals and 0.99 in agribusiness.
Slide 13. Cover ratios and the balance in provisions. The cover ratios in
December was 167.0%, total provisions R$ 36.0 billion and in this quarter we
created supplementary provisions, R$ 1.5 billion.
Page 14. Cover ratios by segment. Our portfolio abroad has a high cover ratio
of 400.0%, agribusiness, 228.0%; individuals, almost 200.0%; and we see
some improvements in companies as well, 145.0%.
Slide 15. Average risk reached 5.52 in December, a slight improvement from
September/2016. The banking industry is at 6.5, meaning that we are way
below the average risk in the market and our portfolio is concentrated in risk
AA-C, 90.8%.
Slide 16. Provision flow to loan portfolio. Pretty much stable in portfolio we
keep outside of Brazil. We are seeing increasing provisions to the portfolio in
companies, 2.21, the total also increased 1.28; individuals 1.18; only in
agribusiness we have a decrease in the flow in this quarter. The total
provisions, nominal value of provisions, in the quarter increased by 12.7%,
pretty much coming from individuals and companies.
Slide 17. NPL formation. We ended the quarter as 1.04, almost stable to
3Q2016. And a coverage on the NPL formation of 107.0%. In the bottom of the
slide we included in the card use transactions the portion of the renegotiated
loan portfolio that was renegotiated after 90 days being past due. If we didn’t
renegotiated that particular loans, how much would be the NPL formation? In
this case we have a small increase of 1.17 but smaller than the 2Q and cover
ratio almost at 100.0%.
Slide 18, we have NPL formation by segment and the cover ratio of the NPL
formation by segments. Here you can see that individuals is pretty stable in
relation to September by 0.84 and a cover ratio of 140.0%. For companies we
have 1.73, a small increase in relation to 3Q but below the highest level we
have in the 2Q and a cover ratio of 121. Agribusiness is pretty much stable at
the time, 1.4 and the cover ratio here is what we have done in the portfolio,
was negative.
On page 19 we bring to you the renegotiation of new loan portfolio. We have
R$ 3.8 billion in new contracts in the quarter, a decrease of 35.6% in relation
to the 4Q2015 and in the right side we have from this R$ 3.8 we renegotiated
how long it was past due when we renegotiated. So we have the breakdown
by the time of being past due. As you can see 14.4% was not even past due is
recovery of written-off operations and only 17 was past due over 90 days. The
concentration here is almost 40.0% comes from transactions past due from 0-
14 days. By the way the presentation shows 4 days as 14 days. Sorry about
that. And the growth in the amount of money we are receiving in this portfolio
means amortization of principal, interest payments, and net interest accrued in
the period grew in 2 years 92.1%. Just to compare the write-offs grew by
59.4% meaning that we are really increasing the level of what we are receiving
in this portfolio.
On page 20 we have the NPL formation for this portfolio at 9.24, a little bit
higher than 3Q the lowest level in this series here. And the cover ratio was a
161.69.
Page 21, guarantees provided in provisions, almost R$ 18.0 billion at the end
of December of guarantees outstanding and this portfolio has R$ 431.0 million
in provisions.
Page 22. We have the NII. We grew 13.0% in 2015, loan operations grew by
7.3% and funding expenses way below the growth of the loan operations. That
explains the increase in spread that we are going to show in the next pages.
In slide 23, the net interest margin grew to 5.06 in the quarter, the readjusted
NIM 2.57, and the 4Q the average balance of our portfolio was R$ 644.0
billion, a decrease overtime during the year.
Page 24, we have spread by portfolio. Starting with individuals, increased to
16.6, companies increased to 6.34 and agribusiness also increased to 5.0%,
getting us to 7.98 in the total credit spread.
Page 25, fee income. A growth of 6.8% in the year coming mostly from
checking account fees of 19.2; asset management also with a good
performance at 9.9. And insurance pension premium bonds at 7.1.
Page 26, we have our network distribution. At the end of December 66.0
thousand points of sale all over the country. Our own service networks more
than 16.0 thousand; also 5,440 before the flow, what announced, that we were
closing branches and so on, that’s going to happen in 2017, I have more
information afterwards. Total customers almost 65.0 million and total
employees 100,0 thousand, and that number is already impacted by the
retirement program that we announced last year. And outside of Brazil we
have presence in 24 countries, 38 points of service.
On page 27, the ideal of improving customer experience through digital
strategy, how is [22:36]. The combination of human solution with digital
solutions where we have the digital relationship manager serving clients
through extending working hours, from 8am to 10pm for individuals; and from
8am to 6pm for companies, using all the tools available in the market.
Page 28 we bring the the level of transactions by channels. We can see that
65.0% of all transactions processed by the bank are concentrated in mobile
and Internet, and the mobile we reached 10.0 million clients at the end of
December using the mobile; 10.0 billion transactions in 2016, 53.1% growth
compared to 2015.
Slide 29 the digital strategy evolution. The main information to provide you
here is the increase in the number of customers considered in the portfolio
[23:43] network, has reached 5.5 million in customers, additional 1.2 million
customers through an additional 27 digital bank units, not branches, units. In
the Stylo segment, more 400.0 thousand clients; in Exclusivo 212 offices; and
3.0 million clients at the end of 2017, that’s our goal. With that we have the
possibility of increasing the revenues with these clients, when we do that
through the digital, these changes that we are showing here we can improve
revenues in 2018 by R$ 1.7 billion, just to give you an idea.
On page 30 the digital strategy gains considered the profitability [24:40] from
20.0% to 44.0% when we shift the clients from the traditional banking to digital
banking. Efficiency growth increased by 35.0% and [24:53] is 16.0% higher.
All of that we’ve shown so far gets us to slide 31 where we see the
improvement in cost/income ratio, going from 41.6 in 2015 to 39.7 in 2016, a
growth of 3.5% in the year for administrative expenses.
Slide 32, some information about the organization that we are doing in the
bank so we have the retirement approval of 9.4 thousand people joining, with
flows already 274 branches in 2017 up to two days ago. And we transformed
250 branches in points of service.
Slide 33. The increase in our core Tier I since September 2015 reaching 9.6%
in December 2016 and the total capital ratio is 18.5.
Slide 34, applying all the Basel III rules we grow from 18.5% total ratio to 18.11
after using our credit spread as well. Before the Tier I it goes from 12.79 to
12.38. Same behavior would happen for the core equity Tier I.
Slide 35, the guidance for 2016. We are pretty much in line with the guidance.
For companies that we projected -19.0% at the bottom of the guidance we
ended up with -19.2. And agribusiness that had a [26:49] of 4.0% is 2.8.
Administrative expenses we came in guidance at 3.5.
Slide 36. We have the guidance for 2017 with some changes in some
indicators. Instead of ROE we now are giving you the guidance for adjusted
net income, 9.5 to 12.5. NII we are considering now net of write-offs recovery,
0-4.0%. The portfolio is the organic one so we are not considering anymore
any portfolio that we acquired in this guidance, is 1-4. For individuals, 4-7.
Companies and agroindustrial now together, so companies including the
agroindustrial [27:44], 4 to -1.0. Rural loans is only [27:50] rural loans, that’s
another change we made, the growth is 6-9.0%. The provision expenses now
is net of recovered write-offs and in billions, goes from -23.5 to -20.5. Fee
income growth of 6-9.0% and administrative expenses growing from 1.5-4.5%.
With that we can open now for Q&A. Thank you.
OPERATOR – Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the Q&A session. If
you have a question, please dial *1 on your touch tone phone now.
Our first question comes from Mr. Tito Labarta, from Deutsch Bank.
TITO LABARTA – Hi. Good morning everyone. Thank you for the call. A
couple of questions. First, I was looking at your guidance for net interest
income and loan growth [28:15], one is at 0-4%, one is at 4.0%, your margin
should be stable[28:49] a little bit if you look at average balances. I just want to
understand with interest rate coming down, just get a little better
understanding of the sensitivity [29:00] funding costs can improve, [29:03] put
pressure on your loan spread. I just want to understand a little bit about the
sensitivity here. And my second question is in terms of capital. Will we
continue to see improvements in your capital ratio? I understand that you have
some deductions that you have to do this year, which can maybe offset some
of that but with profitability improving. If you could just maybe, what do you
think you are [ 29:24] at in terms of capital ratio [29:28], I would appreciate it.
Thank you.
BERNARDO ROTHE – Thank you, Tito, for your questions. Starting with the
behaviour of NII compared to the loan growth, we don’t expect that the loan
portfolio is going to have a linear performance in 2017. So it’s not linear growth
all over the year. If you look at what we expect in terms of average balance for
our loans, compared to 2016, it is going to be a negative number. So even if
we say that NII is going to grow zero, that means that we are capturing
spreads. The balance is going to be lower than last year. So that considers the
reduction Selic and changes in regulation in Brazil and so on. Everything that
we have and all the information that we have until now is considered in this
guidance. We are still seeing room to get through spreads throughout the year.
And if you have 58.0% of our portfolio that was contracted before 2016. So
even though we started the process repricing in 2014, but prices in 2014 are
lower than what we have right now. So we still have room to do reprice in our
portfolio to the level of interest rates that we expect throughout 2017. And that
is what [30:55] was this guidance of 0-4.0% growing more than the average
balance of the portfolio. In terms of capital, the only goal that I can tell you is
the one that we have been announcing. It is 19.5% by beginning of 2018. But
yes, this last month we had another 20.0% deduction in the NIM. So from the
level of that the core Tier I that we had at the end of December should be
[31:29] it was lower because of the deductions, that’s considered the capital
plan. And we are going to keep improving it throughout the year. Ok?
TITO LABARTA – Ok. That’s all Bernardo. Thank you. I just have a couple of
quick follow ups. So it is expected to assume that with the repricing of your
loan portfolio, that’s what we are all expecting the lower interest rates you
don’t expect pressure on spread and also, maybe, just a lack of competition
that you are able to keep prices pretty high on loans. And then on the capital
[32:02]. Should we assume that capital remains flat? that you are staying at
9.25 by 2019, [32:09] 9.6 for the core capital ratio. So would the increase of
profitability be offset by the deductions? Is that [32:17] to think about it?
BERNARDO ROTHE – Ok. In terms of capital, yes, we have to 40.0% of
deduction in 2015, 20.0% this year already there, and another 20.0% next
year. So when we do that we have to consider how we are going to do assets,
RWA’s and so on, [ 32:36] and all. The level of the profitability of the bank and
so on. So, to get 9.5 we are pretty comfortable that we are going to get there
as we are still managing growth for our RWA and repaying profits we are going
to compensate the deductions that are going to kick in. On the spread side, as
I mentioned, you know, we still have room. Very low stress, you know, so
repricing them, even with the interest rate in the market going down means
that we can capture spreads. Selic rate by itself in the medium term is neutral
for us because we have the impact of our funding base and a percentage of
SELIC, you know, going down pretty fast. And a lot of things that we have in
the balance sheet that have a longer duration in the asset side that increase
spread right away, decreasing the funding cost. We have things that reprice
automatically like what we invest in the market. So the overall, the net of the
asset, Selic by itself is usual. And Selic spreads, they depend on competition.
We are not seeing much competition in 2017. So not that much pressure in
spreads. So we can get through a increase in spreads for the repricing of the
portfolio that we contracted before 2016. OK?
TITO LABARTA – Thanks, Bernardo. One other quick follow up on the capital.
I guess that 9.25% by 2019 is that also like a base? I mean, could it be above
that level? Given, you know profitability including [34:18] growth. The target, I
mean, is it possible that it could be above that?
BERNARDO ROTHE – 9.5 is the minimum by our own standards, considering
our own buffer. We can be higher than that and if we can be higher than that
we will be. 9.5 is not the end of the game, you know? We are not stopping at
9.5. We may even seek increasing over time. But the only goal that I can tell
you is to be above 9.5 by the beginning of 2018.
TITO LABARTA - Ok. Great. Thank you very much.
OPERATOR – Our next question comes from Mr. Carlos Macedo from
Goldman Sachs.
CARLOS MACEDO: Thanks. Good afternoon, gentlemen. I have a couple of
questions. First question, asset quality, provision and expenses, a big decline
there. I was looking for a little bit more colour where the decline comes from. If
you look at the vintage course for SME and individuals for 2016 it looks pretty
grim compared to other years. So my guess, you are probably still going to
have some provision review for those portfolios early in the year. But obviously
the corporate book should be where you have a lot of relief. Could you give us
some colour just to understand where all that relief are going to come from?
Second, we recently saw the Keppler Webber, there are other companies in
your portfolio that you can sell in order to improve your capital in Argentina.
Everybody is talking about the sale of Banco Patagonia. I am not asking you to
comment about any specific events, but should we expect to see more activity
in that front in 2017 that would help also your capital ratio? Thanks.
BERNARDO ROTHE - Good morning, Macedo. Thank you for your questions.
In terms of the asset quality [36:07] for the provisions. Repeating something
that I have been saying for a while. Let’s say that the quality doesn’t improve
at all in, you know, the very small small companies portfolio. Right? Same
quality, but even with some deterioration in terms of quality in a portfolio that is
decreasing, now almost 50.0% in 2 years. The capacity of that portfolio to
generate provisions is decreasing. So we are going to have lower provisions
coming from that portfolio, even though this portfolio, in terms of quality should
improve, that will improve only in the 2H2017. Right? We don’t expect that
small companies portfolio behaves pretty much in line with the economy as
everyone expected the economy to pick up in the 2H. Then we should see
improvements coming from this portfolio in the 2H as well. So even after that,
before this improvement starts, we may see the flow of provision in the
portfolio reduced. So we expect provisions to reduce gradually from the level
that we had in the 3Q2016, over the year, being better at the end of the year.
CARLOS MACEDO - But, would it be fair to say though that the bulk of
improvement comes from the corporate book? Giving that [37:32] not going to
have, you know, a large company, or hopefully, are not going to have as many
large companies defaulting with the improvement of the economy?
BERNARDO ROTHE - The total provision that we have been making over the
time comes from the companies portfolio. So improvement comes from the
companies portfolio as well. So, about selling assets and so on, you know, any
non-core assets that we have are available for sale, let’s say. We can sell.
People know that the banks are all the time not in our drawers [38:08] proposal
because we have been saying that for a while. So if there is a good proposal,
something that makes sense for us as we had in the case of Keppler Webber,
we will sell,right? So it depends on the market, it doesn’t depend on us. We
are not close to sell non-core assets at all. What we are not going to sell
whatsoever is our, you know, asset management, or BB Seguridade, doing
IPO of anything that is very related to our strategy, our core business. Ok?
CARLOS MACEDO - Thanks, Bernardo. One more thing, I don’t mean to put
you in the spot but, can you confirm that there is a process undergoing for the
sale of Banco Patagonia in Argentina?
BERNARDO ROTHE - What I can tell you is that what we announce in a
material fact last year, is that we’re analysing the possibility of doing a follow
on in that particular bank in the, you know, in the exchange and in the stock
market in Argentina.
CARLOS MACEDO - Ok. Thanks.
OPERATOR – Our next question comes from Mr. Mario Pierre from Bank of
America.
MARIO PIERRE - Good morning everybody. Let me ask you two questions,
both of them are related to your guidance. This first one is related to your
guidance for expense growth, ok? The way you are doing the numbers here,
we see that you have total expenses in 2016 looking at personnel and
administrative of about R$ 32.8 billion. At the same time, you are announcing
cost cutting measures totalling R$ 3.1 billion. This related to your early
retirement plan of R$ 2.3 billion, and branch closures of about R$ 750.0
million. So when I look at your guidance of expenses growing 1.5-4.5% and if I
take in consideration your cost cutting, what I see is that you are guiding for
expenses to grow 12-15.0%. So I want to understand here what am I missing?
You know, my feeling is that your guidance here is being too conservative or
maybe the cost cutting is not as high as you originally guided for. The second
question is also related now to your provisions guidance of R$ 23.5 to R$ 20.5
billion. If I look you had provision of R$ 27.0 billion in 2016. If I consider some
extraordinary provisions that you made in 2016 related to [40:55], related to Oi,
related to the supplementary provisions that you made in the 4Q, I estimate
that you have R$ 4.7 billion in non-recurrent provisions. So, this alone, would
bring your provisions in 2017 to R$ 22.3 billion, which is roughly the mid-point
of your guidance. Also this estimate is too conservative, it is almost like you
are not expecting much of an improvement in provisions in 2017. So these are
my questions.
BERNADO ROTHE – Ok, thank you, Mario. Good morning as well. In terms of
expenses, you know, if you look only at personnel expenses and tax that we
would have in terms of the increasing salaries, given the agreements with the
unions in Brazil would be 3.4% growth in the personnel expenses for 8 months
of this year in relation to last year and another 5.7 INCC+1. So let’s say 5.7,
whatever it is going to be at that point. So we would have an increase in cost
with personnel at a high level. We are compensating that with the 9,000
people that are leaving. So if you look at what would be our guidance for
personnel expenses I would say to you that zero would be inside that
guidance. One compensates the other. The other administrative expenses,
part of these figures that you mentioned are not going to happen right away.
They are going to happen over time. So you cannot consider that we capture
everything at this year. We are going to capture that in 2018. We have been
growing this particular part of the expenses way below inflation for a very long
time. And some of these expenses we have agreements that we are
negotiating not in a year but 2 years, 3 years and so on. So we have to look at
the inflation not of 2017, but inflation of 2016 and 2015. Put that together the
pressure is a big one. We cannot consider in our forecast that we are going to
manage to reduce whatever we have to increase in terms of agreements being
renegotiated in 2017, but what level we want because it depends on
negotiations. So, something that we have to work through the year, but the
guidance gives you our best forecast at this point in time.
MARIO PIERRE - Just to go back. What you said on the admin expenses. You
provided a slide here showing that you already closed a significant amount of
the branches that you are expecting. So why wouldn’t the bulk of these cost
savings be realized in 2017?
BERNARDO ROTHE - First of all, the portion of the 750 that is related to the
branches is 300. And we are closing branches now but we still have costs with
these branches going through, you know, the 1H. So that is why the full impact
of these savings in 2018 not in 2017. It is going to happen over time, over a
year, right? So part of these costs are going to be [44:31] afterwards, although
we have already closed the branch, there is no one working there and so on.
But you have this cost, to bear it until it is fully out of our books, let’s say. That
is the thing. So it is not fully in 2017. That is the point, ok?
MARIO PIERRE - OK. And, just, sorry, just to stay on this topic. But at the
same time, you are showing this digital evolution of the bank and processing
more transactions. I would think that that alone would generate some cost
savings for you as well. You know, my point here is, when I look at your private
sector peers, they are guiding for similar growth in 2017 as you are. However,
you came out and you provided us with a cost savings measures, branch
closures, laying off 9,000 people. So it just seems to me that your guidance is
too conservative.
BERNARDO ROTHE - You know, I can tell you, by the way it was mentioned
in the Portuguese conference call, that our goal is to keep working on
expenses, to bring the expenses down, to be closer to the bottom of the
guidance and, if we can, even below than the guidance. That is part of the job
that we have to do now. It is not in our projections right now but that doesn’t
mean that we are not going to work to bring that below even the guidance, if
we can, right? So, the guidance is based on best projections that we have.
That doesn’t mean that we are not going to work to improve that, to have even
better results, as we have been doing over the years. If you look at what we
did last 2 years, in terms of guidance for administrative expenses, we
delivered below the guidance in 2 years in a row. So we are going to work to
get there, we are going to do our best job to get there. But the best guidance I
can give you right now is 1.5-4.5. In relation to if you compare to our peers,
unfortunately, we cannot just go there and start, we don’t do that. It is not
unfortunate. We don’t fire people, we see them differently. We have different
ways of addressing the number of employees that we need. So they don’t
need to announce things they do every day. We have to do things differently
here. So look at the behaviour of the number of branches, the number of
employees, it is not that different, right? They are doing their job as well. Right
job. I don’t want to comment on competitors but they are doing their jobs. As
everyone has to do their own jobs. We are doing ours. And our job is that.
Moving to provisions, the projections that we have, of course, we want also to
have lower level of provision than what we are guiding the markets right now.
Part of our job is to put everything on track. We believe that the guidance that
we are giving you reflects the behaviour expected of our portfolio. There is a
big improvement in relation to last year. This year [48:03] that may happen. I
am not saying it is going to happen. I believe we have pretty much everything
worked out already. But, you know, things are going to be dealt with, we have
to have room to allow us to cover anything, some things that are not in our
projections right now. So we believe that the right guidance to give to you,
given that 2017 is a transitional year. We are going to see things much better
in 2018. That is what we expect. But 2017 is still a year of recovery, a small
recovery if you look at Focus report at we expect in terms of growth in GDP in
Brazil is 0.48 now. So it is a transitional year. We are going to go through this
transition improving gradually the level of provisions that we have in our books.
Gradualy from the 3Q, ok?
MARIO PIERRE - Ok. Just to stay on provisions really quickly. When we think
about recovery, I would imagine that your recoveries would be much higher in
2017 than they were in 2016. Is that part also or is that already incorporated
on your guidance?
BERNARDO ROTHE - Well, recoveries. We had a record of recovery last
year. So it is not that easy to repeat every year a record, right? So we consider
that without a feasible level of recovery for 2017 in our guidance.
MARIO PIERRE - Ok. I guess the record level of recovery is because you
have a record increase in NPL’s as well. So I would imagine with the economy
coming back that you might be able to have a better year in 2017. But ok. My
overall feeling here, what I just wanted to clarify is this. Certainly your
guidance is on the conservative side. I wouldn’t be surprised if you deliver
better than you expected [ 50:13]. Thank you very much.
BERNARDO ROTHE - I can guarantee you that we are trying to make it right.
MARIO PIERRE - Thank you.
OPERATOR – Our next question comes from Mr. George Friedman from
Citibank.
GEORGE FRIEDMAN - Thank you for taking my question. Actually just, you
know, one question here, related to your position of capital. The bank
considered in this quarter optimize its capital management and once again
risk-rated assets for the [50:46] the total asset decreased quarter over quarter
reaching now 44.0%, which is the lowest level vs Brazilian large banks. My
question is related to the decline of the portfolio originated abroad in this
context. As you shared in slide number 8, this portfolio declined approximately
11.0% quarter over quarter. So how much of this decline would do to the
strengthening of the Real? And at what level do you think this portfolio should
stabilize going forward? In addition it would be great if you could provide also
some colour on the average yield of this portfolio. Thank you very much.
BERNARDO ROTHE - Ok, George. Thanks for your question. First, what we
have outside of Brazil, I believe the market has already heard that from our
CEO that we’re focused on Brazil. So we used to do a lot of transactions
outside of Brazil, with companies with no links to Brazil and so on. So that is
not our focus anymore. There is a decrease coming from, you know,
concentration of our business should be, you know, have the Brazilian flavour.
[52:09] these companies that operate in Brazil, foreign companies that operate
in Brazil, Brazilian companies operating abroad, financing trades and so on so
forth. That generated a decrease in terms of portfolio for sure. Part of it is, of
course, is in the FX rates. So the portfolio decreased in dollar terms but also
decreased in Real terms because of the shift from 3.9 in the rate to 3.2 [52:38]
at the end of the year. So part of this is the Real, the change in the value of
Reais against Dollars. Part of it is a shifting in terms of strategy for the
branches that we have abroad. I can give you the number exactly, how much
the foreign exchange impact later on. Ok?
OPERATOR: Our next question comes from Mr. Carlos Gomez from HSBC.
CARLOS GOMEZ -Hello. Good morning. Two questions. The first one is if you
could give us an update on the situation of Banco Postal. [ 53:23] something
that you [53:24] to pursue. And also whether not doing Banco Postal is
incorporated in your cost guidance [53:31] income. And second, as you
covered it, the speculation about the possibility of large [53:42] perhaps
undergoing [53:47]. We understand that is not the end for you, but your focus
is on Brazil. How would management look at the possibility of a combination
[53:58] something that you would look favourably? Or do you prefer to
concentrate in your current cost control? Thank you.
BERNARDO ROTHE - Hi, Carlos. Good morning. Thank you for your
question. In terms of the Postal Bank. The agreement with the Postal Bank
was extended for 3 years, at the end of the year. So we are still using the
Postal Bank. They are still operating as, you know, point of service of Banco
do Brasil. We had a change in terms of paying agreement. So the cost of using
the Postal Bank decreased. Bigger portion of it now it depends on
performance. So the fixed costs is only R$ 5.0 million per month. Everything
else depends on the performance so we pay for what they do. So there is a
decrease in terms of costs for the bank overall. But they are still serving clients
of Banco do Brasil, they are still doing business, selling products, you know,
processing transactions and so on for us. So it is ongoing. We renovated that
agreement for 3 years in December, right? In terms of what may happen with
Banrisul, you know, it is not my place to comment. We are looking at the
market overall all the time, but we are concentrating in doing things organically
in Banco do Brasil. Ok?
OPERATOR – This concludes today’s Q&A session. I would like to invite Mr.
Bernardo Rothe to proceed with his closing statements. Please, go ahead sir.
BERNARDO ROTHE – I just want to thank you all for participating in our
conference call and to put my team at your disposal to answer any further
questions that you may have. Please feel free to contact us anything that you
need. Thank you very much and see you in the next conference call. Bye.
OPERATOR – That does conclude Banco do Brasil conference call for today.
As a reminder, the material used in this conference call is available on Banco
do Brasil investor relations website. Thank you very much for your participation
and have a nice day. You may disconnect.