4. Naresh Kumar - IARI - Agriculturemoef.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Agriculture-incca... ·...
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INCCA Initial 4x4 Assessment Report:
Agriculture
S. Naresh Kumar*, P.K. Aggarwal,
R.C Upadhyay, E. Vivekanandan, R.M. Bhagat and others
*Division of Environmental Sciences
Indian Agricultural Research Institute
New Delhi-110012, India
Presentation at INCCA meeting
16th November, 2010
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Outline • Introduction
• Methodology
• Assessments
– Western Ghats
– Costal region
– NE Region
– Himalayan region
– Dairy sector
• Assumptions and limitations
• Conclusions
• Future thrust
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• Ecologically and economically important areas :
WG, Coastal areas, NE and Himalayan region
• Agriculture in these areas is highly diverse and
important for sustainable livelihood of the local
population
• High value crops (temperate fruits; spices, tea,
coffee; fisheries)
• This is the first time study on impact of climate
change on agriculture in these ecologically sensitive
regions
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Methodology-
Controlled environment facilities used for
climate change studies at IARI
FACE, TGT, OTC
Deriving genetic coefficients
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Methodology- Baseline yields
Genotype
coefficients
CO2
369
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Methodology- Scenario yields
Genotype
coefficients
PRECIS A1 B2030 scenario data
Temperature (max, min) and rainfall
CO2
In 2030 scenario
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Western Ghats
Agriculture in WG
– Large estates (tea, coffee and rubber)
– Other plantations and spices which are generally grown
as inter crops
– Annual crops based farming consisting of mainly paddy,
vegetables, pulses, tuber crops and millets
– Home-stead faming: one of the key features of this area,
where-in a large number of species (annuals and
perennials) are included
Rice, sorghum, maize, millets, coconut
Tea, coffee, cashew, rubber, spices
Local varieties, low inputs
Soil erosion, high rainfall
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Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)
Irrigated rice rainfed sorghum
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rainfed maize coconut
Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)
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Reasoning change in cropping
pattern-Farmers’ perception
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Water
scarcity
Irrigation Increased
day temp.
Decreased
day temp.
Increased
night temp.
Decreased
night temp
Low rainfall Change in
raining
period
High wind
Input related constraints Climate/ weather related constraints
Fa
rme
rs (%
)0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Price of
produce
Cost of
cultivation
Fuel wood Yield Demand Preferance
to
seasonal
crops
Preferance
to
perennial
crops
Socio-economic constraints/ reasons
Farm
ers
(%)
Tapioca, Rice, Lemon grass Pepper, coconut, coffee, arecanut, ginger
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Coastal DistrictsAgriculture in coastal districts
– Multi- dimentional, wide agro-biodiversity
– Varies from sustenance agriculture to commercial agriculture
– Annual crops
– Plantations
– Fisheries/ aqua culture
Rice, ground nut, coconut , cashew
Marine fish and shrimps
Sea level rise, salt water intrusion
High temperatures, heavy winds, cyclones, floods (east coast)
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Irrigated rice Irrigated maize
Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)
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Coconut
Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)
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Marine fisheries- past trends –Oil sardine
0.1% - 1%
1% - 10%
10 % - 25%
25% - 50%
>50%
LONGITUDE(°E]
LATITUDE(°N)
1961-1976 1977-1986
1987-1996 1997-2006
Source: Vivekanandan et al., 2009
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Possible responses of marine fishes to climate change
Extension of distributional boundary of small pelagics;
Extension of depth of occurrence –Indian mackerel; and
Phenological changes.
Change in spawning season of threadfin breams (Nemipterus japonicus and
N. mesoprion) off Chennai
Nemipterus japonicus: Change in spawning season off
Chennai
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980
1982
1984
1986
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
Sp
aw
ners
(%
)
October - March
April - September
N. mesoprion : Change in spawning season off Chennai
0
20
40
60
80
100
1983
1985
1987
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
Sp
aw
ne
rs (
%) October-March
April-September
(Source: Vivekanandan and Rajagopalan, 2009)
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The NE RegionAgriculture in NE region
– Rich biodiversity of agricultural crops (rice, tea, pulses)
– Rice, mustard
– Tea, jute, cotton, potato, sugarcane
– Agricultural practices
– Settled farming practice in plains, valleys, foothills and terrace slopes
– Shifting (Jhum) cultivation on hill slopes
– Prone to floods and soil erosion
– Home-stead faming
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Rainfed rice Mustard
Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)
Wheat Potato
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Himalayan region
Agriculture in Himalayan region
– Cereal-based production system (rice, wheat, maize, millets)
– Horticulture and/or agri-horti-based production system
(temperate fruits)
– High value horticulture (vegetables, mushroom, floriculture)
– Agri-horti-silvi-pastoral based production system
– Livestock-based production system
– Soil erosion, temperature rise, climatic extremes
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Shift in apple production zone to higher altitudes in
Himachal Pradesh
Bhagat et al., 2009
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Livestock productivity- Projections for 2030
Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) based assessment
• Himalayan region
• Projected to increase in THI in many parts of Himalayan region between
March-September with a maximum rise between April- July.
• Thermal discomfort is likely to increase with THI > 80
• North Eastern region
• Thermal discomfort is likely to increase between April-October months
with THI > 80
• Western ghats
• The THI is likely to increase in September-April months. Heat stress days
per annum are likely to increase with THI > 80.
• Coastal region
• The Coastal regions are likely to remain affected throughout the year in
2030 scenario with THI > 80.
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The THI load
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Assumptions and limitations of the study
• Area under crops in future is assumed to be similar to that in baseline
• Pest and disease incidence –similar to baseline period
• Future inter- annual
climatic variability and rainfall distribution is assumed to be similar as that
existed in baseline period
• Lack of representative farm level data
• The uncertainties of climate change scenarios particularly with reference
to rainfall
• Non consideration of socio-economic issues
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Conclusions
• Climate change is projected to affect the yields of cereal crops such as rice, wheat, maize and sorghum in these ecologically sensitive areas if current management practices are followed
• The temperature humidity stress on livestock is projected to increase, warranting better shelter management
• Fish distribution may further extend along the Indian coast
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Future thrust
Integrated impact and adaptation
assessment including all sectors of
agriculture
Developing specific adaptation strategies for
climatic risk
Assessment on Himalayan region
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