World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

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WMO ● Climate & Water Department www.wmo.int

Climate Change from the WMO Climate Change from the WMO

perspectiveperspective

T. Abrate

Scientific officer

Climate and Water Division

World Meteorological Organization

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Weather vs. Climate

• “Weather” is a snapshot of the state of atmosphere over

a relatively short period of time (usually less than a

week)

• “Climate” represents an average or collective state of

the weather patterns over a long period of time

• Climate = Time average of weather + climate extremes

• Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get

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Climate is NOT constant

• Changes in Climate occur on all time and space

scales characteristic of the Earth System

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Climate Variability and Change

• Seasonal to interannual fluctuations are considered to be “climate variability”.

– Anomalies can be expected to recur at intervals less than a decade and the long-term mean state essentially remains the same.

• Decadal and longer time scale changes are considered to be part of what is widely known as “climate change”.

– Climatic characteristics tend to gradually move towards a substantially different mean state.

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Future Climate Change

• Warming in the 21st century greatest over land and at the highest northern latitudes.

• For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected. Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions.

• Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent.

• It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.

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Natural and Human-induced Changes

• Natural changes and variability: causal mechanisms– Orbital variations

– Solar cycles

– Volcanoes

– Oceanic circulation

• Anthropogenic forcing on climate– Greenhouse effect

– Land-use land cover changes

– Sulphate aerosols

– Stratospheric ozone depletion/CFCs

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Source:

IPCC WG1 AR4, 2007

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Source: IPCC WG1 AR4, 2007

Improving Model Resolutions

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Projecting climate change

CONCENTRATIONSCO2, methane, etc.

HEATING EFFECT‘Climate Forcing’.

IMPACTSFlooding, food supply, etc.

Scenarios frompopulation, energy,economics models

Carbon cycle andchemistry models

Gas properties

Coupled climatemodels

Impacts models

CLIMATE CHANGETemp, rain, sea-level, etc.

EMISSIONS

feed

back

s

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Why use a Regional Climate Model?

• GCMs’ performance in reproducing regional climate detail is rather poor

• Regional Climate Models (~50 km resolution) add regional detail to GCM simulations - both of current climate and future climate change– Better representation of islands, coastal areas and complex

topography

– Finer scale appropriate to realistic simulation of mesoscaleweather systems

– More realistic simulation of extreme events (e.g., improved simulation of severe tropical cyclones)

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WMO’s historical role in Climate Change…

• 1976: First authoritative statement on the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the potential climate impacts.

• 1979: First World Climate Conference.– Establishment of World Climate Programme (WCP), including the World Climate

Research Programme (WCRP) as a co-sponsored programme.

• 1988: Establishment of the WMO-UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

• 1990: Second World Climate Conference (SWCC) which called for the establishment of a climate convention.

– Leads to the development of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992;

– Establishment of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

• 2009 World Climate Conference 3

• 2012 Cg-Ext Establishment of the GFCS

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Global Framework for Climate Services

• Goal:

– Enable better management of the risks of climate

variability and change and adaptation to climate

change at all levels, through development and

incorporation of science-based climate

information and prediction into planning, policy

and practice.

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What are Climate Services ?

• Generating and providing information on past, present and future climate, and on its impacts on natural and human systems– Historical climate data sets

– Climate monitoring

– Climate watches

– Monthly/Seasonal/Decadal climate predictions

– Climate change projections

• Helping the user– access the right product for decision

making, and

– use it appropriately including aspects of uncertainty

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Components of GFCS

•• User Interface PlatformUser Interface Platform - to provide a means for users, user representatives, climate researchers and climate service providers to interact

• Climate Services Information System - to collect, process and distribute climate data and information according to the needs of users and according to the procedures agreed by governments and other data providers

• Observations and Monitoring - to ensure that the climate observations necessary to meet the needs of climate services are generated.

• Research, Modelling and Prediction - to assess and promote the needs of climate services within research agendas

• Capacity Building - to support systematic development of the necessary institutions, infrastructure and human resources to provide effective climate services.

Users, Government, private sector, research, agriculture, water,

health, construction, disaster reduction, environment,tourism,

transport, etc

User Interface

Climate Services Information System

Observations and

Monitoring

Research, Modeling

and Prediction

CAPACITY BUILDING

Users, Government, private sector, research, agriculture, water,

health, construction, disaster reduction, environment,tourism,

transport, etc

User Interface

Climate Services Information System

Observations and

Monitoring

Research, Modeling

and Prediction

CAPACITY BUILDING

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MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

6 6 –– 10 Days10 Days

8 8 –– 14 Days14 Days

MonthsMonthsSeasonsSeasons YearsYears Forecast

UncertaintyForecast

Uncertainty

For

ecas

t Unc

erta

inty

For

ecas

t Unc

erta

inty

Forecast Lead TimeForecast Lead Time

••Customer billing serviceCustomer billing service••Water supply forecastingWater supply forecasting••snowmeltsnowmelt••Maintenance schedulingMaintenance scheduling••Inventory managementInventory management••Pipeline throughput Pipeline throughput mngtmngt ..••Pump load determinationPump load determination

••Utility network Utility network managementmanagement••HydoHydo supply managementsupply management••Pipeline laying logistics Pipeline laying logistics

••Sales/earnings forecastingSales/earnings forecasting••Water storage replenishment strategiesWater storage replenishment strategies••“Flexible” water production and delivery“Flexible” water production and delivery••Storage requirements needs assessmentStorage requirements needs assessment••Storage logistics planningStorage logistics planning••Regional Water Regional Water mngtmngt . planning. planning••Stockpile planningStockpile planning••Seasonal demand forecastsSeasonal demand forecasts••Delivery rate settingDelivery rate setting••HydoHydo regional water regional water mngtmngt . Strategy. Strategy••Compliance projections estimatesCompliance projections estimates

••Infrastructure designInfrastructure design••Regional infrastructure planRegional infrastructure plan••New storage capacity plansNew storage capacity plans••Mitigation strategy designMitigation strategy design••Plant/ infrastructure sitingPlant/ infrastructure siting••Water policy settingWater policy setting

Water Operations Aided by Water Operations Aided by Reductions in Weather/Climate Reductions in Weather/Climate Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Uncertainty

••Water rate settingWater rate setting••Boil water “ ordersBoil water “ orders••Demand forecastingDemand forecasting••Shortage/drought managementShortage/drought management••“Intelligent” infrastructure“Intelligent” infrastructure••Dispatch managementDispatch management••Hazard responseHazard response

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Extremes

events and

disasters

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Climate extremes and impacts

Cold days and nights

Warm days and nights

Length and number of heat waves

Precipitation

Tropical Cyclones

Droughts

Magnitude and frequency of floods

Anthropogenic influence

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Future extremes

• Warming in temperature extremes

• Heavy precipitations

• Tropical cyclones

• Drought

• Heat waves

• Permafrost

• Glacial retreat

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Concluding Remarks

• In many regions, there is limited use of climate information. It is important to find ways for all countries to cope with climate variability and change through improved access to climate information and prediction/projection products and the use of risk management techniques.

• Climate adaptation and Climate-related risk management require multi-disciplinary collaborations and cross-disciplinary exchange of information.

• WMO is looking forward to GFCS as a major step forward in systematically providing climate information for decision making at various levels of climate-sensitive sectors.

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

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WMO ● Climate & Water Department www.wmo.int

Thank You