3. Teori populasi

7/23/2019 3. Teori populasi

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/3-teori-populasi 1/41

Population TheoryA – Demographic Transition

B – Malthusianism

C – Neo-Malthusianism

D – Creative Pressure



Demographic Transition

1. Concept◦ What is the emographic transition!

". #tages

◦ What are the ma$or stages o% itsoccurrence!

&. 'eographical (ariations

◦ Does the emographic transitionoccurre at the same time anplaces!

AA



11 Concept

)vervie*◦ A +social moerni,ation o% the reprouction

process /mprove health care an access to %amily planning.

0igher eucational levels especially among *omen. 2conomic gro*th an rising per capita income levels.

3r4ani,ation an gro*ing employment opportunities.

◦ /nvolves moving %rom one e5uili4rium toanother

/nitial e5uili4rium 0igh 4irth an eath rates.

6inal e5uili4rium 7o* 4irth an eath rates.

◦ Theory 4ac8e 4y soli empirical evience.

◦ /nvolves %our phases.



Concept

2piemiological Transition◦ 6ocuses on changes over time in the

causes o% mortality a9ecting certain

populations 0ealth conitions.

Disease patterns.

◦ :esult in a ecline in eath rates an

an increase o% li%e e;pectancy.

◦ The society goes through a transition%rom communicative iseases to

egenerative iseases.

11



Concept

#tages inepiemiological

transition◦ Three ienti<a4le stages

in the transition.

◦ 1= Age o%communicative

iseases.◦ "= Age o% receing

panemics.

◦ &= Age o% egenerativean man-mae

iseases.

Communicative Diseases

Receding Pandemics

Degenerative and Man-made Diseases

11

70 years

50 years

30 yearsHigh Fertility

High Mortality

High Fertility

Decreasing Mortality

Low Fertility

Low Mortality



#urvivorship o% the BritishPopulation 1>th an "?th Centuries11



Demographic Transition Theory

190018001700

Stage I Stage II Stage IVStage III

Birth Rate

Death Rate

2000

11

Demographic

Growth

Population



Crue Birth :ates Western2urope 1>@1-11

11



Crue Death :ates Western2urope 1>@1-11

11



#tages in Demographic Transition

Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV

High birth rates High birth rates Falling birth rates Low birth rates

No or little FamilyPlanningParents have manychildren because few

surviveMany children are neededto work the landChildren are a sign ofvirilityReligious beliefs andcultural traditionsencourage large families

Family Planning usedA lower infant mortalityratesndustriali!ation means

less need for laborncreased desire formaterial "ossessions andless desire for largefamilies#manci"ation of women

Children as liabilitiesinstead of assets

High death rates Falling death rates Low death rates Low death rates

$isease and "lague %e&g&bubonic' cholera'kwashiorkor(Famine' uncertain foodsu""lies and "oor diet

Poor hygiene' no clean water or sewage dis"osal

m"roved medicinem"roved sanitation and waters su""lym"rovements in food"roduction in terms of

)uality and )uantitym"roved trans"ort to

11



6ertility Declines :eal anPro$ecte 1@?-"?@?=11



33 'eographical (ariations

Develope countries◦ Too8 "@? years %or most evelope economies to go

through their o*n emographic transition %rom 1>@?to "???=.

◦ Population gro*th never surpasse the capacity o%

these economies to accommoate it.

Developing countries

◦ Demographic transition starte in the "?th century The most avance segment a%ter WW/.

The least avance segment a%ter WW//.

◦ (ery %e* have *ent trough the transitory mutation.

◦ Most o% them have a type /// emographic transition.

◦ By the time they reach type /( a huge amount apopulation *ill 4e ae to their populations.



Beginning o% Demographic Transition

33



6ertility Transition in someCountries 1"-"???33



'eographical (ariations

Will emographic transition occur allaroun the *orl!

◦ Moel 4ase upon the Western e;perience.

◦ 2vience unerline that the process is li8ely.

◦ Pro4lems The 4ase population in the eveloping *orl is

large.

7o* percentages o% population increase *ill result

in large num4ers o% aitional people. 7imite possi4ilities %or immigration 3nli8e 2urope

at the en o% the 1th century an early uring the"?th century=.

:eligious an cultural inuences.

33



Malthusianism

1. Concept◦ What are the principles o%

Malthusianism!

". The Malthusian Crisis◦ What oes a Malthusian crisis

involves!

&. Contemporary /ssues

BB



11 Concept

Conte;t◦ Thomas Malthus 1>-1E&F= in his

4oo8 +2ssays on the Principle o%Population 1>E=.

◦ :elationships 4et*een population an

%oo resources area uner cultivation=.◦ 'ro*th o% availa4le resources is linear

*hile population gro*th is o%ten non-linear e;ponential=.

◦ Too8 notice o% %amines in the Mile

Ages especially in the early 1Fth

century 1&1=.

◦ 6rom the ata he gathere population*as ou4ling every "@ years.

◦ )ver a centuryGs time population*oul rise 4y a %actor o% 1 *hile %oo

rose 4y a %actor o% F.

Demographicgrowth

Resourcegrowth

Defcit



The Malthusian Crisis

The +Malthusian crisis◦ Availa4le agricultural spaces are limite.

◦ Technical progresses machinery irrigation %ertili,ersan ne* types o% crops= are slo* to occur.

◦ /ncreasing incapa4ility to support the population.

◦ /% this persists the population *ill eventually surpassthe availa4le resources.

◦ The outcomes are +Malthusian crises 6oo shortages.

6amines.

War an epiemics.

◦ +6i; the population in accorance *ith availa4leresources.

◦ Necessity o% a +moral restraint on reprouction.

22



Overexploitation


Population

Resources

Technological Innovation

ime

22

!uantity t2

t3

t1




The Malthusian Crisis has not occurre◦ Malthus has 4een critici,e on several accounts

uring the last "?? years.

◦ :eligious vie* Protestantism= racist an elitist.

◦

Di not %oresee the emographic transition Changes in the economy that change the role o%

chilren in the inustriali,ing societies.

◦ 6aile to account %or improvements in technology 2na4le %oo prouction to increase at rates greater

than arithmetic o%ten at rates e;ceeing those o%population gro*th.

2na4le to access larger amounts o% resources.

2na4le %orms o% contraception.

22



33 Contemporary /ssues

The Malthusian crisis toay◦ Demographic gro*th Bet*een 1? an "??? three 4illion persons *ere ae

to the glo4al population.

To sustain this gro*th agricultural resources ha to 4e

ou4le. :e5uire housing space surpasse all that *as constructe

since the 4eginning o% man8in.

◦ Agricultural gro*th Bet*een 1? an 1? grain yiels has increase 4y

"H *hile cultivate sur%aces have only increase 4y EH. 6oresee a limit to gro*th in agricultural prouction.

◦ Consumption gro*th.

◦ 2nvironmental egraation.



Contemporary /ssues

:elevance o% the Malthusian theory◦ Was Malthus right or the tren in agricultural

prouction *ill again increase to surpasspopulation gro*th!

◦ Are improvements in agricultural techni5uesenough to ans*er eman!

◦ The ne;t "@ years *ill 4e crucial an *ill 4ring%or*ar ans*ers to these 5uestions.

◦ The *or8 o% Malthus continues to 4e important to

emographers /nuence o% many contemporary theorists %rom various

acaemic isciplines.

Built upon MalthusGs ieas an lin8e them to moernsciences.

33



Neo-Malthusianism

1. Neo-Malthusian Concepts◦ 0o* can the Malthusian theory 4e

aapte to the current situation!

". The Commons◦ /n *hich *ay common resources are

use!

&. Neo-Malthusianism an 0uman:eprouction

◦ /s reprouction a right or privilege!

CC



Neo-Malthusian Concepts

Carrying capacity◦ /ssue lin8e *ith the carrying capacity o% lan.

◦ 7imits to a4sor4 ever-greater num4ers o% people.

◦ Population gro*th has environmental impacts.

◦ #upport o% %amily planning contraception an a4ortion.

◦ Population pro4lems cannot 4e aresse throughtechnology 4eyon the short term.

)verpopulation

◦ A multiimensional issue lin8e *ith the carrying

capacity.◦ Num4ers shoul 4e lin8e *ith level o% consumption.

◦ The 3nite #tates *oul 4e more overpopulate thanChina.

11




Population 4om4◦ 6ast population gro*th seen as a threat The *or +4om4 o4viously re%er to the lethal

character o% the pro4lem.

◦

Brought %or*ar 4y Paul 2hrlich in the late1?s.

◦ Most Thir Worl countries *ere in the mile o%their emographic transition at the time.

◦ 2hrlich an others continue the 4asic

Malthusian num4ers game in *hich populationgro*th outstrips %oo prouction.

◦ Move Beyon Malthus in their consieration o%many environmental issues.

11




7imits to gro*th◦ +Clu4 o% :ome 1>"

◦ #cienti<c report on the limits togro*th.

◦ 3se computer moels %or the <rst

time Population gro*th %oo per capita

inustrial output resources anpollution.

◦ Blaming huge *aste o% resources

4y evelope economies.◦ #upporting a ,ero gro*th policy.

◦ Main arguments :esources are in <nite num4er.

Demographic gro*th cannot occurine<nitely.

Must stop at some point.

11

Population

Industrial output

Resources



The Commons

De<nition◦ :esources that *e share as a population 7an an other inputs into the %oo prouction process.

)ceans an their contents particularly <sh as a %oo source.

The atmosphere.

#ources o% energy. 7anscape %or recreational purposes.

◦ :esources o% the commons are in <nite 5uantities *hileaccess is %ree in theory=.

◦ The *orl is <nite an can support only a <nitepopulation Population gro*th must eventually e5ual ,ero.

)ther*ise *e have to a4anon certain %reeoms o% access tothe Commons.

The only *ay %reeoms can 4e save is 4y relin5uishing the%reeom to 4ree.

22



The Commons

2;ample o% using the commons◦ Decision on *hether to increase the si,e o% her

that gra,es on common lans.

◦ A rational 4eing see8ing to ma;imi,e his gain

Positive component o% aing animals is aitionalincome %rom aitional animals.

Negative component is the overgra,ing cause 4y theaitional animals.

The costs are share 4y those using the commongra,ing lans.

Decision to a the e;tra animals to his her.

3n%ortunately all o% the other villages *ill arrive at thesame conclusion o the same thing.

◦ The outcome is the ruin to the environment.

22



The Commons

Village " # $ %

Cattle * * * *

Commons +, - +. / .

Cattle %0+(,

%0+(,

%0+(,

%0+(,

Commons +, - +1 / 2. %overgra!ing(

22

Commonssustain !"#

1

Village

2

4

3

Cattle &gra'ing(

)ene*its+ ," each

Costs+ -" each



The Commons

The tragey o% the commons◦ 6reeom in a commons 4rings ruin to all.

◦ All the resources *ill 4e use.

#olutions

◦ Private property :emoves some o% the Commons %rom access.

2ncourages conservation an *ise management.

(este interest in maintaining it %or %uture use.

◦ Collective property

Parts o% the Commons not possi4le to ivie into privatesegments - atmosphere oceans etc.

Collective glo4al= o*nership.

Ta;ation an coercive la*s as the primary means o%preservation.

22



Worl 6ish Catch per Capita1@?-1

22



Commercial 0arvests in the North*est Atlantic o%#ome 6ish #toc8s 1@?-@ in 1??? metric tons=22



Car4on 2missions %rom 6ossil 6uelBurning 1>@1-"??1

22



Neo-Malthusianism an 0uman:eprouction

0uman reprouction◦ Malthus *as avocating +moral restraint A religious 4ias.

◦ Moern contraception

A tool o% population control state perspective=. A tool o% %reeom in reprouctive choice mar8et

perspective=.

◦ Against su4sii,ing reprouction

Wel%are state. Many international ai programs.

:emove the punishment such as chilren starvingto eath= %rom having too many o9spring.

33



Neo-Malthusianism an 0uman:eprouction

6reeom to 4ree◦ Clashes 4et*een neo-Malthusianism an human rights.

◦ 3NGs Declaration o% 0uman :ights De%ense o% the iniviual %amilyGs right to etermine %amily si,e.

#upport the %reeom to 4ree %or political reasons.

6e* governments are a4le or *illing to en%orce restrictions onthe reprouction o% their populations.

◦ 0uman population control cannot 4e achieve throughvoluntary means.

◦ With %reeom to 4ree comes e5ual o4ligations :esponsi4ility to the *el%are o% the chilren.

DiIcult concept to grasp especially 4y an uneucatepopulation.

◦ 2ach ne* iniviual competes *ith other %or resources.

33



The Creative Pressure

1. Concept an /ssues◦ What oes the creative pressure

theory imply!

". 7imits to Prouctivity◦ What may 4e the limits to

prouctivity!

&. Creative Pressure vs. Neo-Malthusianism

◦ Can Neo-Malthusianism an creativepressure 4e reconcile!

DD



Concept an /ssuesConcept

◦

)ppose to the Malthusianan Neo-Malthusianperspectives.

◦ Brought %or*ar in theearly 1?s.

◦

(ie* share 4y severaleconomists.

◦ Population has a positiveimpact on economicgro*th.

◦ +Necessity is the mothero% all inventions.

◦ Population pressure %orcesthe <ning o% solutions Agriculture.

2conomy.

11

Demographicgrowth

$igheroccupation

densities

Pressures toincrease

producti%ity

Inno%ations

Producti%itygrowth

&

P r o ' l e m

S o l u t i o n

( u t c o m e



Concept an /ssues

Technological innovation anagriculture

◦ /ntensi<cation o% agriculture.

◦ Ne* methos o% %ertili,ation.◦ Pesticie use.

◦ /rrigation.

◦

Multi-cropping systems in *hichmore than one crop *oul 4ereali,e per year.

Creative pressure an glo4al

population gro*th

11



7imits to Prouctivity

7imits o% %oo prouction 4yenvironmental %actors

◦ #oil e;haustion an erosion.

◦ 2volutionary %actors such as theevelopment o% greater resistance topesticies.

◦ Climate change.

◦ 7oss o% prouctive soils ue to lanuse conversion to other purposessuch as ur4ani,ation.

◦ Water shortages an pollution.

22

i



Creative Pressure vs. Neo-Malthusianism

33

Carrying capacity

Demographic transitionPopulation

Resources

)!st century

Creati%epressure

*n%ironmentaldegradation

!+th,)0th century

eo-Malthusianism

Malthusianism

i



Creative Pressure vs. Neo-Malthusianism

Neo-Malthusianism◦ Population consumes

resources.

◦ Population gro*th hasenvironmental

conse5uences.

◦ Notion o% carryingcapacity.

◦ Population shoul 4econtrolle 4y strict%amily planning policies.

◦ )verpopulation lin8e*ith levels o%consumption.

Creative Pressure

◦ Population inuces thecreation o% resourcesan the su4stitution to

alternative sources.◦ +Necessity is the mother

o% all inventions.

◦ Population *ill a$ustitsel% to the 5uantity o%

il 4l

33

3. Teori populasi

Documents

Transcript of 3. Teori populasi