3. [en]bocm fs mrt mri

MITSUBISHI RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.

Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

Overview of Feasibility Study for Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism (BOCM) on MRT in Vietnam

- Promotion of Modal Shift from Road-based Transport to

Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) System -

August, 2012

Kick off Seminar on “Studies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in

Transportation Sector of Vietnam under the Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism”

23th August 2012, at Melia Hanoi, Hanoi, Viet Nam

2 2 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

Contents 1. Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. (MRI)

2. Objectives of Feasibility Study on MRT in Vietnam

3. Overview of the result of our study in FY 2011

4. Overview of our study plan in FY 2012


1. Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute (MRI)

4 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

• Corporate Name

• Head Office

• Foundation

• Listing

• Researchers

• Sales

Main Features

• Leading think tank and consulting company

in Japan

• Member of Mitsubishi-group, but not

subsidiary of others

Profile

Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

Tokyo, Japan

May 8, 1970

First Section of the Tokyo Stock

Exchange (Stock code:3636)

645 as of September 30, 2011

73.3 billion yen (FY2010/9)

(Consolidated)

Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute (1/2)

If you need more information, please see

http://www.mri.co.jp/E/index.html


Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute (2/2)

Systems integration and

outsourcing services that effect

management change

Business strategy

Marketing science

Technology management

Patent utilization

Future oriented and a collaborative,

interdisciplinary approach for

policy making

Analytic approach to top

management decision-making

Data systems for top management

Financial risk management solutions

Banking and credit card systems

Payroll and personnel outsourcing

Global warming and energy challenges

Social security problems

Low birthrate and aging population

issues

Education and human resources

development


MRI’s experiences on Climate Change Issues

Mitsubishi Research Institute Inc. (MRI) has 22 years’ experience on climate-related research.

MRI has been instrumental in the background analysis and formulation of key government policies on climate change, with contracts from mainly MOE and METI.

MRI has been consulting the electricity industries etc. on climate change policy.

MRI supported our clients to formulate PDDs for CDM, and developed 5 approved CDM methodologies as below.

No Sector Title

AM0009 Fugitive Recovery and utilization of gas from oil wells that would otherwise be flared or vented

AM0062 Energy Industries Energy efficiency improvements of a power plant through retrofitting turbines

AM0093 Waste handling and disposal

Avoidance of landfill gas emissions by passive aeration of landfills

AMS III-S Transport Introduction of low-emission vehicles/technologies to commercial vehicle fleets

AR-AM0008* Afforestation and reforestation

Afforestation or reforestation on degraded land for sustainable wood production

MRI has many experiences on Climate Change Issues and CDM.

Approved CDM methodologies developed by MRI

( * AR-AM0008 is now consolidated to AR-ACM0002)


MRI’s experiences on BOCM

MRI has many experiences on BOCM’s F/S, some of F/S are on going in FY2012.

Sector Title of study

Transportation * Development of Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) Systems in Jakarta, Indonesia,

and Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh, Viet Nam GEC

Renewable Energy

* Renewable Energy Development Focusing on Geothermal Power Generation in Colombia

GEC

* Newly-constructed Geothermal Power Generation Project in Indonesia NEDO

* Geothermal Power Generation Project in the Great Rift Valley NEDO

Power Plant * Study for the Possibility of Application of Ultra Super Critical Steam Conditions

for Coal Fired Power Plant in Vietnam

NEDO

Newly-constructed CCGT Power Generation Project in the People’s Republic of

Bangladesh

NEDO

BFG Fired Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Power Plant Project in India and Turkey NEDO

Other CO2 Abatement through Utilisation of Blast Furnace Slags as Blending Material for Cement in Viet Nam

GEC

CCS * Feasibility Study for CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) in Indonesia NEDO

REDD+ REDD+ and Bio-Fuel Production and Utilisation in Gorontalo Province, Indonesia GEC

MRI’s experiences on BOCM Feasibility Studies

With * : These studies are on going also in FY 2012.

Without * : These studies had been conducted in FY 2011.


2. Objectives of Feasibility Study on MRT in Vietnam

• Credits from BOCM will be issued as the amount of CO2 emissions reduction, and it could be

an additional source of revenue.

• That additional revenue could be invested in the improvement of MRT that may contribute to

promote utilization of MRT and also can lead to increase CO2 emissions reduction.

• e.g. - Investment in the energy saving facilities of transportation system

- Investment in the maintenance of the station

- Investment in establishing a park-and-ride system


Benefits of BOCM and benefits relative to CDM

Benefits of BOCM

Credits from BOCM will be an additional source of revenue. And BOCM could overcome CDM’s difficulties.

• The process of CDM takes a few years and constantly delay in schedule. On the other hand,

the process of BOCM could be much speeder than CDM.

• The methodology of CDM must be well generalized and applicable to many countries. On the

other hand, BOCM methodologies will be established under the situation of Vietnam that

enables setting default or fixed values.

• For MRT project, the monitoring cost would be reduced.

• e.g. Large-scale passengers’ surveys are required for CDM, but for BOCM simpler

methods would be available.

Benefits relative to CDM


Objectives of feasibility study on MRT

To achieve objectives, we will …

• Conduct surveys in Vietnam to establish the method to set the default or fixed

values, which are used for calculation of GHG emissions reduction by modal

shift to MRT.

• Determine project boundary, especially whether access/egress traffic to MRT

should be included to boundary or not.

• Make spread sheets for calculating emissions reduction.

• Estimate the amount of emissions reduction achieved by each MRT line.

What to do

• To develop MRV methodology on MRT.

• To contribute as a case to further improve the institutional design of the BOCM,

while starting BOCM operation.

• To quantify anticipated amount of emissions reduction achieved by the project at

this time, applying the developed MRV methodologies

Objectives of F/S


Concept of GHG emissions reduction by MRT

CO2 CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2

Modal Shift

Reference Scenario Project Scenario

Difference

Emissions Reduction

Less CO2 emissions More CO2 emissions =

12

Our targets: MRT Line 1 and 2 in Hanoi


Ha

no

i Urb

an

Tra

nsp

ort L

ine

1 & L

ine

2

Line #2

Line #1

13

Our target: MRT Line 1 in Ho Chi Minh City


Ho

Ch

i Min

h C

ity U

rba

n T

ran

sp

ort L

ine

1


3. Overview of the result of our study in FY 2011


Overview of our study on MRT in FY 2011

Collecting related data

• We have checked availability of the existing data, which are used to calculate GHG emissions reduction.

Estimation of emissions reduction

Proposal for options on project boundary

• We have proposed 3 options on project boundary, which mean emission sources should be included to calculation.

Developed the framework of MRV methodology

• We considered the framework of MRV methodology, e.g. applicable conditions, reference scenario, and so on.

• We have estimated the amount of GHG emissions reduction for each MRT line by using developed methodology and collected data.


Basic concept of project boundary There are 3 options of project boundary for calculation . • Option 1: A ・・・ MRT only • Option 2: A+B ・・・ + Access traffic from/to MRT stations • Option 3: A+B+C ・・・ + Traffic volume change on surrounding roads

(A) MRT

Trip by MRT passengers

(B) Between Origin to Station A and Station B to Destination

Station A Station B Origin

Option 1

Option 2

Surrounding road

(C) Surrounding road

Trip change influenced by MRT introduction Option 3

Destination

* After this page, option 1 is adopted.


Concept of GHG emissions reduction calculation method

MRT

Station A MRT

Station B

MRT

Station A MRT

Station B

Reference Scenario = Without MRT

Project Scenario = With MRT

Person

Kilometer

CO2 emissions

factor × [PKM] [tCO2/PKM]

Electricity

Consumption

Gird CO2

emissions factor × [kWh] [tCO2/kWh]

Option 1

Option 1

Difference

= Emissions Reductions

Motorcycles, cars, buses, etc….


Calculation Method for Reference Scenario(1)

Each parameter in above formula has some options to measure, but the basic concept of methodology for reference emissions is same. It depends on data availability or feasibility.

Person Kilometer CO2 emissions factor × [PKM] [tCO2/PKM]

For each vehicle

➀ ②

CO2 emissions by transport modes which MRT passengers would have used, in

the case of without MRT

* PKM: Person kilometer

Modal share [%] × Total number of trips [PKM]

The number of trips for each vehicle [PKM]

=

=

* If the number of trips for each vehicle can’t be available, total number of

trips will multiply by modal share.


Calculation Method for Reference Scenario(2)

- Person-Kilometer -

Modal share ×

Total Person-Kilometer of

MRT passengers [PKM]

𝑥𝑖,𝑗 × 𝑦𝑖,𝑗i,j

Modal Share (based on PKM) [%]

A st B st C st ・・・

A st 250 300 ・・・

B st 100 500 ・・・

C st 50 300

・・・・・・・・・

OD table between MRT stations

- Motor Cycles ●PKM

- Cars ▲PKM

- Buses ■PKM

etc…

×

The distance between B and C station = 𝒚𝑩,𝑪 [km]

The number of passengers from B station to C

station is 500 = 𝒙𝑩,𝑪 [Person]

=

𝒙𝑩,𝑪 × 𝒚𝑩,𝑪 [𝑃𝐾𝑀]

＝

The result of an existing survey

Person-Kilometer

for each transport mode [PKM]


Calculation Method for Project Scenario

Electricity consumption [kWh]

CO2 emissions factor [tCO2/kWh]

×

Data offered by MRT operating

company

Default Value

(e.g. The grid emissions

factor DNA release for CDM)

CO2 emissions by operating MRT


Monitoring and MRV

* Parameter Method to measure Frequency Measurement?

RE Total passengers-kilometer OD table based on IC card system Continually Measurement

RE Distance between stations e.g. Railroad map Once at project start Fixed Value

RE Modal share Existing survey, or Once at project start Fixed Value

Passengers survey, or Once at project start Measurement

Traffic volume survey Once at project start Measurement

RE Emission factor for fuels e.g. IPCC Once at project start Default Value

RE Fuel efficiency for vehicles Existing survey, or Once at project start Fixed Value

Actual fuel consumption and driving

distance

Once a year Measurement

PE Electricity consumption Bill from grid electricity company Every meter reading Measurement

PE Emission factor for electricity e.g. IEA, Vietnamese government Once a year Default Value

* RE: Emission for Reference scenario, PE: Emissions for Project Scenario

• Measurement and Reporting: Operating entity of MRT will be in charge of measurement and reporting. In this regard, Japan should conduct capacity building.

• Verification: To develop verifiers in Vietnam, capacity building toward such organizations is also necessary.

To reduce monitoring cost, the options using default or fixed values will be provided.


The differences between BOCM and CDM

Total trip by MRT

passengers

CO2 emissions

factor ×

[PKM] [tCO2/PKM]

Differences on the emissions for Reference Scenario: CO2 emissions by travel

modes which MRT passengers would have used without MRT

* The BOCM methodology is now under consideration.

Total trip by MRT

passengers

CO2 emissions

factor ×

[PKM] [tCO2/PKM]

BOCM

CDM

BOCM

CDM

Passenger survey is required

OD table or statistics can be applicable

BOCM

CDM

Sample survey is required

Default value can be applicable


Emission Reduction Potential – trial estimation -

Items Value Remarks

(1) For Reference Emissions 157,704 (tCO2/year) = a*365*(each b*each c)

a Passenger-kilometer 6,000,000 PKM/day Assumption

b Modal Share (based on PKM) M/C 50.9%, Car 27.1%, Bus 21.9% HAIMUD

c CO2 emissions factor M/C 48 gCO2/PKM, Car 119 gCO2/PKM, Bus 70 gCO2/PKM

HOUTRANS etc

(2) For Project Emissions 27,918 (tCO2/year) = d*e*g/(1-f)

d Electricity consumption by MRT 2,400 MWh/km/year Assumption

e Operating Distance 25.0km Assumption

f Loss rate on transmission and

distribution of electricity(e)

12.1% IEA

g Grid electricity emission factor 0.409 tCO2/MWh IEA

Emissions Reduction 129,786 (tCO2/year) = (1)-(2)

CO2 Credit Revenue US$ 1.65 million/year EUR 10.0 /t-CO2*

EUR 1.0 =US$ 1.27

* CO2 price : EUR 10.0 /t-CO2 (average CER price in 2011)

Trial estimation for a fictional MRT line


There are some remaining issues for applying BOCM to a MRT project

Conducting survey to get lacking data

Modal share

Fuel efficiency

Number of passengers per one vehicle

Setting Boundary

Necessity to include access/egress traffic and surrounding road* * could be excluded according to results of existing CDM projects

Evaluation criteria: relevance, data availability, and conservativeness

Necessary information to evaluate: supposed behavior of passengers and other persons concerned, and impact of changing boundary on emissions reduction

Detailed design for MRV

Who is in charge of measurement

Which organization could conduct verification, etc.

Remaining Issues


4. Overview of our study plan in FY 2012


Toward FY2012 from FY2011

What we will do in FY 2012

To conduct a survey to set the default or fixed values, which are used for calculation of GHG emissions reduction

To consider the detail of MRV methodology

To conduct a survey to determine which boundary option is appropriate: whether access/egress traffic to MRT should be included to boundary or not

What we did in FY 2011 To check availability of the existing data, which are used to calculate GHG

emissions reduction by modal shift To establish the framework of MRV methodology To arrange the concept of project boundary to three options

In FY2011

In FY2012

What we didn’t do - remaining issues - To collect some of data that are not available or not updated To establish the detail of MRV methodology To determine the appropriate project boundary


Overview of the survey in FY 2012

Access/egress traffic

Modal Share*

Actual fuel efficiency*

Number of passengers

per one vehicle*

Interview Survey - Sample: 500 Taxi drivers and Bus

companies

- Survey items: Fuel consumption, Trip

distance, Fare receipt, Number of

passengers, Average occupation rate etc.

Household Survey - Sample: 5,000 people

- Area: within about 2km from each MRT

Line

- Method: face to face

- Survey items: Date, Purpose, Number of

people accompanied, Origin and

Destination, Travel mode, Travel duration,

Travel fee, Willingness to use MRT,

Travel mode for access/egress, Fuel

efficiency etc.

To set default or fixed

value

To determine whether

access/egress should

be included to

calculation or not

* For each travel mode which would be substituted by MRT

Objective Survey Items Survey Methods


Overview of Household Survey (1/2)

Purpose

• To set the modal share as the default value, based on the understanding of the daily use of travel mode.

• To understand the willingness of using MRT and supposed access / egress travel mode

• To set the fuel efficiency for each vehicle type as the default value, based on the understanding of the fuel consumption and travel distance.

Targets

• Sample size: 5,000 people

• Men and women over the age of five, who live in and go to schools and hospitals along Hanoi No. 1 and No. 2 .

Method

• Conducting in two phase: Small scale Pilot-survey and Full scale Main-survey

• Face-to-face interview visiting respondents’ home • Showing a video and map of MRT with tablet PC in order to help

respondents to understand the image of MRT


Overview of Household Survey (2/2)

General

Information

Trip

Information

Fuel

Efficiency

Willingness

to use MRT

Male/Female

Age

House types

The number of cars

or motorcycles in use

Occupation

Income bracket

Information of the trip

for one week-day Date of trip

Purpose of trip

The number of people

accompanied on each trip

Origin and Destination

Travel mode / Time / Distance / Fee

Vehicle information Type of vehicle / Model

Engine Capacity

Manufacture

Year of purchase / manufacture

Fuel information Frequency of refuel

How to refuel

Type of fuel

Amount of fuel consumption

and fuel fee for survey duration

Travel distance for survey duration

Respondent is willing to use MRT Access and egress traffic (Travel

mode/time/fee/distance)

MRT (station/willingness to pay)

Respondent is willing not to use

MRT The reason of not using

Household

Survey

■ Survey Items


Overview of Interview Survey (1/2)

Purpose

• To set the fuel efficiency for each vehicle type as a default value, based on the understanding of the fuel consumption of buses and taxis.

• To set the average number of passengers per each vehicle as a default value.

Targets

• Bus operating companies in Hanoi

• Buses that driving routes are competitive with MRT lines and connecting with MRT stations

• 500 taxi drivers in Hanoi

• Taxies that are driving along MRT lines

Method

• Interview to bus operating companies

• The questionnaire would be sent to the companies in advance.

• Interview to taxi drivers driving along the Hanoi No. 1 and No. 2

• Researchers will ask to the drivers directly, but would contact to taxi companies only when the number of drivers is not enough.

＜Bus＞

＜Taxi＞


Overview of Interview Survey (2/2)

Average number of

passengers/bus Number of passengers

Number and distance of service

Average number of passengers in

each bus

Operation and management Number of buses

Number of operation lines

Distance of each operation line

Bus size

Frequency of operation

Operation

Taxi company / number

The year that a driver

started business

Area of usual driving

Frequency of operation

Average number of passengers Number of passengers

Number of service

Distance of day

Average number of passengers per

service

Interview to

taxi drivers

Interview to

bus company

■ Interview Items

< Survey Period >

Annual or monthly or daily actual figure

(depending on the data sources)

Fuel efficiency Fuel consumption

Trip distance

Fuel type

Frequency of refuel

Whether to fill up their gas tank

< Survey Period >

Annual or monthly or daily actual figure

(depending on the data sources)

Fuel efficiency Fuel consumption

Trip distance

Frequency of refuel

Whether to fill up their gas tank

Fuel type

■ Interview Items


How to use the result of survey in FY2012

Default values for BOCM methodology would be set and the detail of methodology would be established based on the result of Household survey and Interview survey.

Items set from the survey result Each item in BOCM methodology

Default value of modal share

for each vehicle type

Default value of fuel efficiency

for each vehicle type

Default value of average

number of passengers

Whether to

include access / egress

traffic in calculation

For CDM

These are used

to calculate CO2 emissions reduction

Passengers survey is

required even after starting

operation of MRT

When access / egress traffic would be included

CO2 emissions associated with

access / egress traffic are calculated

Passenger’s survey is

required even after

operating MRT

Used as share of vehicles

substituted by MRT.

Used as CO2 emissions factor

(tCO2/PKM) for each vehicle type. Sample survey is required


Image of MRV methodology(1/2)

BOCM

methodology

Eligibility Criteria

The methodology is applicable for urban or suburban transport system. It is

not applicable for inter-urban transport.

The methodology is applicable for MRT with technology from a foreign

country.

The methodology is applicable when OD data for each passenger can be

griped by IC card ticket system.

・・・

✓

✓

✓

✓

Selecting a Calculation Method

Introducing

MRT Without existing rail-based

transport system

With existing rail-based transport

system

Option 1

Option 2

Necessary Data for Calculation

Parameter Value Unit

Number of passengers between A station and B station ・・・ People/yr

Number of passengers between A station and C station ・・・ People/yr

・・・・・・ People/yr

Electricity consumption by operating MRT ・・・ MWh/yr

・・・・・・・・・

SAMPLE


Image of MRV methodology(2/2)

BOCM

methodology

Project Boundary

Project boundary includes these emissions listed below.

CO2 emissions by travel modes which are supposed to be used instead of MRT

CO2 emissions by electricity consumption of operating MRT

Reference Emissions and Calculation

Option 1

Option 2

・・・

Project Emissions and Calculation

Reference Scenario

MRT is not introduced and people use existing travel modes

Monitoring

Electricity consumption [kWh] CO2 emissions factor [tCO2/kWh] ×

Person Kilometer [PKM] CO2 emissions factor [tCO2/PKM] ×

Parameter Measurement method

Number of passengers between stations Aggregation of records of IC card

Electricity consumption by operating MRT Bill from grid electricity company

SAMPLE

Questionnaire Survey

MRV Methodology

Accomplishment Report to MOT, Project Owner

Action in Japan


Cooperation Structure and Schedule of the Study in FY 2012

Ministry of Transportation(MOT)

TDSI

Ministry of Environment(MOE)

MRI

Marubeni

Project Owner

(VNR,MRB,MAUR) Japan Vietnam

Global Environment Centre

Foundation(GEC)

<prime contractor>

<outsourcing>

mutual cooperation

Jul. 2012 Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Feb. Jan. 2013

Introduction of the Study

Interim Meeting

Final Report

Main- survey

Summary and Analysis of

questionnaire

Materialization of Methodology

Final Report

Consideration of MRV Methodology

based on main-survey

Detailed Design

Formation

Schedule

Pilot- survey Revise questionnaire

Consideration of MRV Methodology based on pre-survey

Preliminary Report

Interim Report

Seminar in Hanoi


Thank you

Xin cam ơn

Contact: Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc

Environment＆Energy Research Division,

Climate Change Strategy Group

Tomoyuki NAGAMURA

e-mail: [email protected]

Tel: +81-3-6705-5450／Fax: +81-3-5157-2146

Sayaka OKUMURA

e-mail: [email protected]

Tel: +81-3-6705-5735／Fax: +81-3-5157-2146

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

3. [en]bocm fs mrt mri

Technology

Transcript of 3. [en]bocm fs mrt mri