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AADT I(2)

Null Hypothesis: AADT has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 13 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.244220 0.4609

Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

5% level -3.444756

10% level -3.147221

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(AADT)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 13:41

Sample (adjusted): 2002M03 2012M12

Included observations: 130 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

AADT(-1) -0.017009 0.007579 -2.244220 0.0267

D(AADT(-1)) 0.927154 0.074853 12.38626 0.0000

D(AADT(-2)) 0.008634 0.095518 0.090388 0.9281

D(AADT(-3)) 0.008588 0.095492 0.089934 0.9285

D(AADT(-4)) 0.008588 0.095492 0.089934 0.9285

D(AADT(-5)) 0.008588 0.095492 0.089934 0.9285

D(AADT(-6)) 0.008588 0.095492 0.089934 0.9285

D(AADT(-7)) 0.008588 0.095492 0.089934 0.9285

D(AADT(-8)) 0.008588 0.095492 0.089934 0.9285

D(AADT(-9)) 0.008588 0.095492 0.089934 0.9285

D(AADT(-10)) 0.008588 0.095492 0.089934 0.9285D(AADT(-11)) 0.008588 0.095492 0.089934 0.9285

D(AADT(-12)) -0.647674 0.095490 -6.782664 0.0000

D(AADT(-13)) 0.608077 0.076036 7.997188 0.0000

C 3001.451 1236.278 2.427812 0.0168

@TREND(2001M01) 20.09784 9.648578 2.082985 0.0395

R-squared 0.875540 Mean dependent var 1040.216

Adjusted R-squared 0.859164 S.D. dependent var 1887.507

S.E. of regression 708.3456 Akaike info criterion 16.07856

Sum squared resid 57199900 Schwarz criterion 16.43149

Log likelihood -1029.106 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.22197

F-statistic 53.46398 Durbin-Watson stat 2.004098

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the

series has unit root.

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For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(AADT) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 12 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.365230 0.3959

Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

5% level -3.444756

10% level -3.147221

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(AADT,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 13:48Sample (adjusted): 2002M03 2012M12

Included observations: 130 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(AADT(-1)) -0.155982 0.065948 -2.365230 0.0197

D(AADT(-1),2) 0.077962 0.076252 1.022425 0.3087

D(AADT(-2),2) 0.077735 0.076200 1.020142 0.3098

D(AADT(-3),2) 0.077726 0.076199 1.020038 0.3099

D(AADT(-4),2) 0.077717 0.076198 1.019934 0.3099

D(AADT(-5),2) 0.077709 0.076198 1.019831 0.3099

D(AADT(-6),2) 0.077700 0.076197 1.019727 0.3100

D(AADT(-7),2) 0.077692 0.076196 1.019623 0.3100

D(AADT(-8),2) 0.077683 0.076196 1.019519 0.3101

D(AADT(-9),2) 0.077674 0.076195 1.019415 0.3101

D(AADT(-10),2) 0.077666 0.076194 1.019312 0.3102

D(AADT(-11),2) 0.077657 0.076194 1.019208 0.3102

D(AADT(-12),2) -0.578352 0.076177 -7.592257 0.0000

C 253.6375 173.9689 1.457947 0.1476

@TREND(2001M01) -1.224502 1.710305 -0.715955 0.4755

R-squared 0.457628 Mean dependent var -8.327885

Adjusted R-squared 0.391600 S.D. dependent var 923.9358

S.E. of regression 720.6699 Akaike info criterion 16.10641

Sum squared resid 59726993 Schwarz criterion 16.43728

Log likelihood -1031.916 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.24085

F-statistic 6.930826 Durbin-Watson stat 1.943671Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

The first differenced series of AGRI has unit root.

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For the unit root test of the second difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(AADT,2) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 11 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.839644 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

5% level -3.444756

10% level -3.147221

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(AADT,3)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 13:52

Sample (adjusted): 2002M03 2012M12Included observations: 130 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(AADT(-1),2) -1.661625 0.242940 -6.839644 0.0000

D(AADT(-1),3) 0.661234 0.232567 2.843200 0.0053

D(AADT(-2),3) 0.660769 0.221708 2.980352 0.0035

D(AADT(-3),3) 0.660301 0.210297 3.139848 0.0021

D(AADT(-4),3) 0.659828 0.198237 3.328477 0.0012

D(AADT(-5),3) 0.659351 0.185403 3.556318 0.0005

D(AADT(-6),3) 0.658871 0.171620 3.839119 0.0002

D(AADT(-7),3) 0.658386 0.156640 4.203180 0.0001

D(AADT(-8),3) 0.657898 0.140079 4.696637 0.0000

D(AADT(-9),3) 0.657406 0.121290 5.420110 0.0000

D(AADT(-10),3) 0.656909 0.099015 6.634410 0.0000

D(AADT(-11),3) 0.656409 0.070003 9.376855 0.0000

C 32.42463 149.5664 0.216791 0.8288

@TREND(2001M01) -0.562651 1.720347 -0.327057 0.7442

R-squared 0.715645 Mean dependent var 2.42E-13

Adjusted R-squared 0.683778 S.D. dependent var 1306.696

S.E. of regression 734.8028 Akaike info criterion 16.13852

Sum squared resid 62632484 Schwarz criterion 16.44733

Log likelihood -1035.004 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.26400

F-statistic 22.45699 Durbin-Watson stat 2.001633

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

The result of the ADF test is that the second differenced series does not have unit root. This means that

the series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.

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MRT I(0)

Null Hypothesis: MRT has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.978816 0.0004

Test critical values: 1% level -4.023975

5% level -3.441777

10% level -3.145474

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(MRT)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 13:56Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12

Included observations: 142 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

MRT(-1) -0.469791 0.094358 -4.978816 0.0000

D(MRT(-1)) -0.412367 0.075920 -5.431590 0.0000

C 3811885. 747036.7 5.102675 0.0000

@TREND(2001M01) 21583.67 4618.156 4.673655 0.0000

R-squared 0.505656 Mean dependent var 58548.71

Adjusted R-squared 0.494909 S.D. dependent var 885118.7

S.E. of regression 629051.7 Akaike info criterion 29.56958

Sum squared resid 5.46E+13 Schwarz criterion 29.65284Log likelihood -2095.440 Hannan-Quinn criter. 29.60341

F-statistic 47.05255 Durbin-Watson stat 2.036420

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

The result of the ADF test is that the series does not have unit root. The series is stationary.

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Employment I(1)

Null Hypothesis: EMPLOYMENT has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 7 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.037094 0.1261

Test critical values: 1% level -4.026942

5% level -3.443201

10% level -3.146309

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(EMPLOYMENT)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 13:59Sample (adjusted): 2001M09 2012M12

Included observations: 136 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

EMPLOYMENT(-1) -0.040643 0.013382 -3.037094 0.0029

D(EMPLOYMENT(-1)) 0.855243 0.079845 10.71123 0.0000

D(EMPLOYMENT(-2)) 0.024536 0.101983 0.240590 0.8103

D(EMPLOYMENT(-3)) -0.748835 0.102575 -7.300339 0.0000

D(EMPLOYMENT(-4)) 0.655671 0.107465 6.101275 0.0000

D(EMPLOYMENT(-5)) -0.020894 0.097389 -0.214540 0.8305

D(EMPLOYMENT(-6)) -0.418042 0.094086 -4.443191 0.0000

D(EMPLOYMENT(-7)) 0.356177 0.073268 4.861285 0.0000C 3.367483 1.128290 2.984591 0.0034

@TREND(2001M01) 0.001974 0.000749 2.635261 0.0095

R-squared 0.637978 Mean dependent var 0.007108

Adjusted R-squared 0.612120 S.D. dependent var 0.454179

S.E. of regression 0.282863 Akaike info criterion 0.382976

Sum squared resid 10.08143 Schwarz criterion 0.597142

Log likelihood -16.04235 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.470007

F-statistic 24.67171 Durbin-Watson stat 2.010112

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the

series has unit root.

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For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(EMPLOYMENT) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 6 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.953357 0.0125

Test critical values: 1% level -4.026942

5% level -3.443201

10% level -3.146309

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(EMPLOYMENT,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:01Sample (adjusted): 2001M09 2012M12

Included observations: 136 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(EMPLOYMENT(-1)) -0.425078 0.107523 -3.953357 0.0001

D(EMPLOYMENT(-1),2) 0.282403 0.103109 2.738892 0.0071

D(EMPLOYMENT(-2),2) 0.280245 0.102747 2.727511 0.0073

D(EMPLOYMENT(-3),2) -0.496234 0.103154 -4.810598 0.0000

D(EMPLOYMENT(-4),2) 0.138861 0.081152 1.711131 0.0895

D(EMPLOYMENT(-5),2) 0.110292 0.074276 1.484893 0.1401

D(EMPLOYMENT(-6),2) -0.319218 0.074553 -4.281762 0.0000

C -0.055447 0.054752 -1.012702 0.3131

@TREND(2001M01) 0.000733 0.000648 1.131729 0.2599

R-squared 0.492361 Mean dependent var -0.007598

Adjusted R-squared 0.460384 S.D. dependent var 0.397336

S.E. of regression 0.291878 Akaike info criterion 0.438920

Sum squared resid 10.81945 Schwarz criterion 0.631669

Log likelihood -20.84658 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.517249

F-statistic 15.39721 Durbin-Watson stat 1.959738

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

The result of the ADF test is that the first differenced series does not have unit root. This means that the

series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.

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GDP_SA I(1)

Null Hypothesis: GDP_SA has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.353491 0.4023

Test critical values: 1% level -4.024935

5% level -3.442238

10% level -3.145744

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(GDP_SA)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:09Sample (adjusted): 2001M05 2012M12

Included observations: 140 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

GDP_SA(-1) -0.050105 0.021290 -2.353491 0.0201

D(GDP_SA(-1)) -0.156896 0.068019 -2.306647 0.0226

D(GDP_SA(-2)) -0.169807 0.067375 -2.520323 0.0129

D(GDP_SA(-3)) 0.626694 0.067023 9.350383 0.0000

C 14343.83 5424.041 2.644492 0.0092

@TREND(2001M01) 233.6087 91.50962 2.552832 0.0118

R-squared 0.604576 Mean dependent var 4183.584Adjusted R-squared 0.589822 S.D. dependent var 7694.376

S.E. of regression 4927.877 Akaike info criterion 19.88512

Sum squared resid 3.25E+09 Schwarz criterion 20.01119

Log likelihood -1385.958 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.93635

F-statistic 40.97538 Durbin-Watson stat 1.896022

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the

series has unit root.

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For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(GDP_SA) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 2 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.586012 0.0016

Test critical values: 1% level -4.024935

5% level -3.442238

10% level -3.145744

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(GDP_SA,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:11Sample (adjusted): 2001M05 2012M12

Included observations: 140 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(GDP_SA(-1)) -0.759012 0.165506 -4.586012 0.0000

D(GDP_SA(-1),2) -0.430332 0.117370 -3.666467 0.0004

D(GDP_SA(-2),2) -0.620774 0.068093 -9.116595 0.0000

C 1771.206 954.8052 1.855044 0.0658

@TREND(2001M01) 19.85422 11.36388 1.747134 0.0829

R-squared 0.841924 Mean dependent var -62.94101

Adjusted R-squared 0.837241 S.D. dependent var 12418.46

S.E. of regression 5010.034 Akaike info criterion 19.91133

Sum squared resid 3.39E+09 Schwarz criterion 20.01639

Log likelihood -1388.793 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.95403

F-statistic 179.7554 Durbin-Watson stat 1.856544

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

The result of the ADF test is that the first differenced series does not have unit root. This means that the

series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.

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HFCE_SA I(1)

Null Hypothesis: HFCE_SA has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.229218 0.9001

Test critical values: 1% level -4.024935

5% level -3.442238

10% level -3.145744

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(HFCE_SA)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:13Sample (adjusted): 2001M05 2012M12

Included observations: 140 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

HFCE_SA(-1) -0.027154 0.022091 -1.229218 0.2211

D(HFCE_SA(-1)) -0.202685 0.072268 -2.804638 0.0058

D(HFCE_SA(-2)) -0.210608 0.071136 -2.960647 0.0036

D(HFCE_SA(-3)) 0.616148 0.070848 8.696710 0.0000

C 6443.106 4195.321 1.535784 0.1269

@TREND(2001M01) 102.8658 68.60761 1.499335 0.1361

R-squared 0.621496 Mean dependent var 3151.593Adjusted R-squared 0.607372 S.D. dependent var 5610.572

S.E. of regression 3515.585 Akaike info criterion 19.20971

Sum squared resid 1.66E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.33578

Log likelihood -1338.680 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.26094

F-statistic 44.00499 Durbin-Watson stat 1.850343

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the

series has unit root.

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For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(HFCE_SA) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 2 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.876219 0.0006

Test critical values: 1% level -4.024935

5% level -3.442238

10% level -3.145744

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(HFCE_SA,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:15Sample (adjusted): 2001M05 2012M12

Included observations: 140 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(HFCE_SA(-1)) -0.853264 0.174985 -4.876219 0.0000

D(HFCE_SA(-1),2) -0.375646 0.123171 -3.049795 0.0028

D(HFCE_SA(-2),2) -0.606030 0.070502 -8.595967 0.0000

C 1353.003 674.6442 2.005506 0.0469

@TREND(2001M01) 19.14704 8.285525 2.310902 0.0224

R-squared 0.855014 Mean dependent var -31.63923

Adjusted R-squared 0.850718 S.D. dependent var 9116.204

S.E. of regression 3522.232 Akaike info criterion 19.20664

Sum squared resid 1.67E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.31170

Log likelihood -1339.465 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.24933

F-statistic 199.0307 Durbin-Watson stat 1.834113

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

The result of the ADF test is that the first differenced series does not have unit root. This means that the

series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.

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OILADJ I(0)

Null Hypothesis: OILADJ has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.803596 0.0191

Test critical values: 1% level -4.023975

5% level -3.441777

10% level -3.145474

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(OILADJ)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:18Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12

Included observations: 142 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

OILADJ(-1) -0.141013 0.037074 -3.803596 0.0002

D(OILADJ(-1)) 0.340800 0.080523 4.232307 0.0000

C 2.674240 1.274376 2.098471 0.0377

@TREND(2001M01) 0.051505 0.018543 2.777534 0.0062

R-squared 0.159484 Mean dependent var 0.490128

Adjusted R-squared 0.141212 S.D. dependent var 6.948833

S.E. of regression 6.439540 Akaike info criterion 6.590556Sum squared resid 5722.539 Schwarz criterion 6.673819

Log likelihood -463.9295 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.624390

F-statistic 8.728303 Durbin-Watson stat 2.000771

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000024

The result of the ADF test is that the series does not have unit root. The series is stationary.

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WAGEADJ I(0)

Null Hypothesis: WAGEADJ has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.310638 0.0687

Test critical values: 1% level -4.023975

5% level -3.441777

10% level -3.145474

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(WAGEADJ)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:20Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12

Included observations: 142 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

WAGEADJ(-1) -0.103344 0.031216 -3.310638 0.0012

D(WAGEADJ(-1)) 0.364640 0.079730 4.573444 0.0000

C 3.388423 1.408182 2.406238 0.0174

@TREND(2001M01) 0.016093 0.012947 1.243009 0.2160

R-squared 0.162443 Mean dependent var 0.359507

Adjusted R-squared 0.144235 S.D. dependent var 6.415895

S.E. of regression 5.935188 Akaike info criterion 6.427439Sum squared resid 4861.250 Schwarz criterion 6.510702

Log likelihood -452.3482 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.461274

F-statistic 8.921635 Durbin-Watson stat 1.971288

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000019

The result of the ADF test is that the series does not have unit root. The series is stationary.

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POPULATION I(2)

Null Hypothesis: POPULATION has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 13 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.264580 0.9909

Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

5% level -3.444756

10% level -3.147221

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(POPULATION)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:23Sample (adjusted): 2002M03 2012M12

Included observations: 130 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

POPULATION(-1) -0.002834 0.010712 -0.264580 0.7918

D(POPULATION(-1)) 0.967226 0.081458 11.87385 0.0000

D(POPULATION(-2)) 0.002728 0.098044 0.027823 0.9779

D(POPULATION(-3)) 0.001341 0.097520 0.013756 0.9890

D(POPULATION(-4)) 0.001341 0.097520 0.013756 0.9890

D(POPULATION(-5)) 0.001341 0.097520 0.013756 0.9890

D(POPULATION(-6)) 0.001341 0.097520 0.013756 0.9890

D(POPULATION(-7)) 0.001341 0.097520 0.013756 0.9890D(POPULATION(-8)) 0.001341 0.097520 0.013756 0.9890

D(POPULATION(-9)) 0.001341 0.097520 0.013756 0.9890

D(POPULATION(-10)) 0.001341 0.097520 0.013756 0.9890

D(POPULATION(-11)) 0.001341 0.097520 0.013756 0.9890

D(POPULATION(-12)) -0.852270 0.121259 -7.028490 0.0000

D(POPULATION(-13)) 0.833382 0.115605 7.208864 0.0000

C 28125.24 104736.6 0.268533 0.7888

@TREND(2001M01) 52.08628 140.6425 0.370345 0.7118

R-squared 0.905263 Mean dependent var 16221.79

Adjusted R-squared 0.892798 S.D. dependent var 8941.589

S.E. of regression 2927.628 Akaike info criterion 18.91659

Sum squared resid 9.77E+08 Schwarz criterion 19.26952

Log likelihood -1213.578 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.06000F-statistic 72.62248 Durbin-Watson stat 1.999671

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the

series has unit root.

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For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(POPULATION) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 12 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.536762 0.8119

Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

5% level -3.444756

10% level -3.147221

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(POPULATION,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:25Sample (adjusted): 2002M03 2012M12

Included observations: 130 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(POPULATION(-1)) -0.084770 0.055162 -1.536762 0.1271

D(POPULATION(-1),2) 0.043333 0.074647 0.580503 0.5627

D(POPULATION(-2),2) 0.044260 0.074277 0.595877 0.5524

D(POPULATION(-3),2) 0.044195 0.074266 0.595095 0.5529

D(POPULATION(-4),2) 0.044131 0.074256 0.594312 0.5535

D(POPULATION(-5),2) 0.044067 0.074245 0.593529 0.5540

D(POPULATION(-6),2) 0.044002 0.074234 0.592745 0.5545

D(POPULATION(-7),2) 0.043938 0.074224 0.591961 0.5550D(POPULATION(-8),2) 0.043873 0.074213 0.591177 0.5556

D(POPULATION(-9),2) 0.043809 0.074203 0.590392 0.5561

D(POPULATION(-10),2) 0.043744 0.074192 0.589607 0.5566

D(POPULATION(-11),2) 0.043680 0.074182 0.588821 0.5571

D(POPULATION(-12),2) -0.818203 0.099959 -8.185422 0.0000

C 414.6858 716.9202 0.578427 0.5641

@TREND(2001M01) 14.95365 9.098767 1.643481 0.1030

R-squared 0.449847 Mean dependent var 17.30769

Adjusted R-squared 0.382872 S.D. dependent var 3711.633

S.E. of regression 2915.766 Akaike info criterion 18.90182

Sum squared resid 9.78E+08 Schwarz criterion 19.23269

Log likelihood -1213.618 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.03626

F-statistic 6.716625 Durbin-Watson stat 1.986822Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

The first differenced series of AGRI has unit root.

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For the unit root test of the second difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(POPULATION,2) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 11 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.571721 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

5% level -3.444756

10% level -3.147221

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(POPULATION,3)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:26Sample (adjusted): 2002M03 2012M12

Included observations: 130 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(POPULATION(-1),2) -1.874477 0.247563 -7.571721 0.0000

D(POPULATION(-1),3) 0.874674 0.237534 3.682308 0.0004

D(POPULATION(-2),3) 0.875214 0.227134 3.853298 0.0002

D(POPULATION(-3),3) 0.875730 0.216258 4.049466 0.0001

D(POPULATION(-4),3) 0.876220 0.204830 4.277783 0.0000

D(POPULATION(-5),3) 0.876685 0.192752 4.548259 0.0000

D(POPULATION(-6),3) 0.877125 0.179890 4.875889 0.0000

D(POPULATION(-7),3) 0.877540 0.166063 5.284379 0.0000D(POPULATION(-8),3) 0.877930 0.151004 5.813952 0.0000

D(POPULATION(-9),3) 0.878296 0.134298 6.539885 0.0000

D(POPULATION(-10),3) 0.878636 0.115231 7.625028 0.0000

D(POPULATION(-11),3) 0.878951 0.092347 9.517900 0.0000

C -196.4009 600.0246 -0.327321 0.7440

@TREND(2001M01) 5.793758 6.914807 0.837877 0.4038

R-squared 0.719281 Mean dependent var 0.000000

Adjusted R-squared 0.687821 S.D. dependent var 5249.099

S.E. of regression 2932.829 Akaike info criterion 18.90676

Sum squared resid 9.98E+08 Schwarz criterion 19.21557

Log likelihood -1214.940 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.03224

F-statistic 22.86339 Durbin-Watson stat 2.030121

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

The result of the ADF test is that the second differenced series does not have unit root. This means that

the series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.

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STUDENTS I(2)

Null Hypothesis: STUDENTS has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.795309 0.7021

Test critical values: 1% level -4.023975

5% level -3.441777

10% level -3.145474

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(STUDENTS)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:28

Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12Included observations: 142 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

STUDENTS(-1) -0.007240 0.004032 -1.795309 0.0748

D(STUDENTS(-1)) 0.903979 0.038970 23.19679 0.0000

C 4556.426 2608.842 1.746532 0.0829

@TREND(2001M01) 7.642534 3.029402 2.522786 0.0128

R-squared 0.852736 Mean dependent var 718.7160

Adjusted R-squared 0.849535 S.D. dependent var 1836.358

S.E. of regression 712.3197 Akaike info criterion 16.00270

Sum squared resid 70021120 Schwarz criterion 16.08596

Log likelihood -1132.191 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.03653

F-statistic 266.3651 Durbin-Watson stat 1.950228

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the

series has unit root.

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For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(STUDENTS) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.694704 0.2405

Test critical values: 1% level -4.023975

5% level -3.441777

10% level -3.145474

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(STUDENTS,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:29Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12

Included observations: 142 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(STUDENTS(-1)) -0.104978 0.038957 -2.694704 0.0079

C -121.6929 128.0561 -0.950309 0.3436

@TREND(2001M01) 3.144118 1.716205 1.832018 0.0691

R-squared 0.051367 Mean dependent var 34.41960

Adjusted R-squared 0.037718 S.D. dependent var 731.9295

S.E. of regression 717.9935 Akaike info criterion 16.01170

Sum squared resid 71656536 Schwarz criterion 16.07415Log likelihood -1133.831 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.03707

F-statistic 3.763327 Durbin-Watson stat 1.902792

Prob(F-statistic) 0.025605

The first differenced series of AGRI has unit root.

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For the unit root test of the second difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(STUDENTS,2) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -11.79500 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -4.024452

5% level -3.442006

10% level -3.145608

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(STUDENTS,3)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:29Sample (adjusted): 2001M04 2012M12

Included observations: 141 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(STUDENTS(-1),2) -1.004099 0.085129 -11.79500 0.0000

C -21.11028 127.8400 -0.165130 0.8691

@TREND(2001M01) 0.765974 1.530830 0.500365 0.6176

R-squared 0.502025 Mean dependent var 0.000000

Adjusted R-squared 0.494808 S.D. dependent var 1039.951

S.E. of regression 739.1646 Akaike info criterion 16.06997

Sum squared resid 75398272 Schwarz criterion 16.13270Log likelihood -1129.933 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.09546

F-statistic 69.56115 Durbin-Watson stat 1.999936

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

The result of the ADF test is that the second differenced series does not have unit root. This means that

the series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.

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VEHICLES I(2)

Null Hypothesis: VEHICLES has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.727986 0.2271

Test critical values: 1% level -4.023975

5% level -3.441777

10% level -3.145474

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(VEHICLES)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:34Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12

Included observations: 142 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

VEHICLES(-1) -0.010165 0.003726 -2.727986 0.0072

D(VEHICLES(-1)) 0.901566 0.035882 25.12563 0.0000

C 12892.17 4526.508 2.848150 0.0051

@TREND(2001M01) 55.31442 20.89022 2.647862 0.0090

R-squared 0.831617 Mean dependent var 5291.455

Adjusted R-squared 0.827956 S.D. dependent var 4816.744

S.E. of regression 1997.896 Akaike info criterion 18.06534Sum squared resid 5.51E+08 Schwarz criterion 18.14860

Log likelihood -1278.639 Hannan-Quinn criter. 18.09918

F-statistic 227.1864 Durbin-Watson stat 1.998396

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Since the p-value of the ADF test is greater than 0.10, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the

series has unit root.

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For the unit root test of the first difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(VEHICLES) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.683385 0.2451

Test critical values: 1% level -4.023975

5% level -3.441777

10% level -3.145474

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(VEHICLES,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:37Sample (adjusted): 2001M03 2012M12

Included observations: 142 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(VEHICLES(-1)) -0.098492 0.036704 -2.683385 0.0082

C 582.6056 366.2104 1.590904 0.1139

@TREND(2001M01) -0.492242 4.328821 -0.113713 0.9096

R-squared 0.053711 Mean dependent var 28.56573

Adjusted R-squared 0.040095 S.D. dependent var 2085.913

S.E. of regression 2043.668 Akaike info criterion 18.10378

Sum squared resid 5.81E+08 Schwarz criterion 18.16623

Log likelihood -1282.368 Hannan-Quinn criter. 18.12916

F-statistic 3.944783 Durbin-Watson stat 1.915968

Prob(F-statistic) 0.021560

The first differenced series of AGRI has unit root.

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For the unit root test of the second difference,

Null Hypothesis: D(VEHICLES,2) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=13)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -11.80656 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -4.024452

5% level -3.442006

10% level -3.145608

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(VEHICLES,3)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 09/14/13 Time: 14:39Sample (adjusted): 2001M04 2012M12

Included observations: 141 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(VEHICLES(-1),2) -1.005005 0.085123 -11.80656 0.0000

C 289.7934 364.5586 0.794916 0.4280

@TREND(2001M01) -3.573713 4.362377 -0.819212 0.4141

R-squared 0.502514 Mean dependent var 6.57E-12

Adjusted R-squared 0.495304 S.D. dependent var 2960.723

S.E. of regression 2103.355 Akaike info criterion 18.16150

Sum squared resid 6.11E+08 Schwarz criterion 18.22424Log likelihood -1277.386 Hannan-Quinn criter. 18.18700

F-statistic 69.69749 Durbin-Watson stat 2.000101

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

The result of the ADF test is that the second differenced series does not have unit root. This means that

the series needs a single differencing to make it stationary.