3 - CAMILLONI La Plata Basin 2019 - abc.org.br · Title: Microsoft PowerPoint - 3 - CAMILLONI_La...
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10/06/2019 1 Hydrological Impacts of Solar Radiation Management in La Plata Basin Inés Camilloni International Symposium on Climate Geoengineering, ACB Rio de Janeiro, 10-11 June 2019 Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA) University of Buenos Aires - (CONICET) Buenos Aires, Argentina La Plata Basin (LPB) Climate Change in LPB LPB DECIMALS Project: Motivation 01 02 03 04 05 LPB DECIMALS Project: Goals LPB DECIMALS Project: Preliminary results 1 2
Transcript of 3 - CAMILLONI La Plata Basin 2019 - abc.org.br · Title: Microsoft PowerPoint - 3 - CAMILLONI_La...
10/06/2019
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Hydrological Impacts of Solar Radiation Management in La Plata Basin
Inés Camilloni
International Symposium on Climate Geoengineering, ACBRio de Janeiro, 10-11 June 2019
Cent
ro d
e In
vest
igac
ione
s de
l Mar
y la
Atm
ósfe
ra (C
IMA)
Uni
vers
ityof
Buen
os A
ires
-(C
ON
ICET
)Bu
enos
Aire
s, A
rgen
tina
La Plata Basin (LPB)
Climate Change in LPB
LPB DECIMALS Project: Motivation
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02
03
04
05
LPB DECIMALS Project: Goals
LPB DECIMALS Project: Preliminary results
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Climate Change in La Plata Basin La Plata Basin01
5 CountriesEconomic activities rely on
water availability: agriculture,
river navigability and hydroelectric production
MAIN RIVERSParaná 17,000 m3/s Uruguay 5,500 m3/s Paraguay 4,300 m3/s
• 3.1 million km2
• +150 million inhabitants• 75 dams• +30 large hydropower plants• varied ecosystems
FEATURES
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Climate Change in La Plata Basin
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Precipitation Change (mm/day) 1981-2010 - 1901-1950
wetter conditions
Zhang et al. (2016)
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Zhang et al. (2016)
Precipitation Change (mm/day) 1981-2010 - 1901-1950 - FORCINGS
The positive trend is attributed to radiative forcing changes associated with increasing concentrations of well-mixed GHG
Also positive trends in many other variables relevant for socio-economic activities: river flows and floods as well as extreme temperatures.
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Precipitation Change (mm/day) 2070-2100 - 1901-1950 - RCP8.5
Zhang et al. (2016)
IPCC (2018)
Precipitation (%) and Temperature (C) Change 1.5C & 2C global warming worlds
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Betts et al. (2018)
Changes in mean flows under 1.5C and 2 C global warming scenarios
Researchers: Carla Gulizia, Natalia Montroull, Ramiro Saurral, Inés Camilloni (PI) (UBA/CONICET)Research collaborators: Simone Tilmes (NCAR), Pete Irvine (Harvard University)
http://www.srmgi.org/decimals-fund/the-projects/argentina/
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LPB DECIMALS Project: Motivation
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C
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NDCsCurrent pathway 1.5C-2C
3.3C4.2C
Projected global warming by the end of 21st century above thepreindustrial period
Target
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Conceptual pathways to limit global warming to 1.5C
IPCC (2018)
Projected regional hydrology impacts over LPB for 1.5°C global warming above the preindustrial level (no overshoot)
Montroull et al. (2018)
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
climate modelsX median
climate modelsX median
Projected streamflow changes (%)
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Conceptual pathways to limit global warming to 1.5C
IPCC (2018)
Conceptual pathways to limit global warming to 1.5C
SRM?
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GEOMIP1 – G4 Stratospheric SO2 injection
Changes in Precipitation (P), Evaporation (E), (P-E) and runoff betweenG4 and RCP4.5 for 2030-2069
Wei et al. (2018)
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Wei et al. (2018)
Annual mean flow
Changes in streamflow indicators between G4 and RCP4.5 for 2030-2069
Extreme high flow
Extreme low flow
04 LPB DECIMALS Project: Goals
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The objective of this project is to assess the possible effects of SRM in the hydroclimate of LPB:
- temperature- precipitation- evapotranspiration - runoff - river discharges
Also,- extreme temperatures and precipitation - extreme streamflow (flood frequency & duration)
CLIMATE
SimulationsGLENS and GeoMIP G4
ObservationsCLARIS and WATCH
VariablesDaily Precip, Tmax,
Tmin
Bias correctionISIMIP method
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS (i.e. RCPs vs. GeoEng, Feedback vs. Control)
CLIMATE IMPACTS (i.e. RCPs vs. GeoEng, Feedback vs. Control)
VIC hydrologic modelAnalysis of runoff, ET,
streamflow, floods
Mean and Extremes T & Precip, ETCCDI Indices
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Large-scale, semi-distributed hydrological model(University of Washington)
Resolution:0.125 x 0.125
Time step:Land-atmosphere fluxes, and the water and energy balances at the land surface, are simulated at a daily time step
• Grid cells are simulated independently of each other
• Routing of streamflow is performed separately from the land surface simulation, using a separate model
Hydrologic Impacts: Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Hydrologic Model
Paraguay River• Ladario• Asunción
Paraná River• Jupiá• Itaipú• Posadas• Corrientes
Uruguay River• Paso de los Libres• Salto Grande
Iguazú River• Salto Caxias
Corrientes
Jupiá
Ladario
Meteorological data Daily gridded precipitation Daily gridded Tmax and Tmin
Soil data 5-min Global Soil Data Task
dataset from the Distributed Active Archive Center (2000)
Vegetation data University of Maryland`s 1-km Global Land Cover product (Hansen et al. 2000)
INPUT
Daily/monthly streamflow at closing points
Daily/monthly gridded runoff, evapotranspiration, etc.
OUTPUT
CLOSING POINTS
Posadas
Paso de los Libres
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05 LPB DECIMALS Project: Preliminary results
Annual precipitation(mm/day)
1981-1990 calibration period1991-2000 validation period
OBS.
Raw
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Annual precipitation(mm/day)
1981-1990 calibration period1991-2000 validation period
OBS.
Bias
corr
ecte
dRa
w
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2021-2045 2046-2070
Stre
amflo
w c
hang
e (%
)
Uruguay River @Salto Grande
RCP4.5 G4
CSIRO Mk3L-1-2
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2021-2045 2046-2070
Stre
amflo
w c
hang
e (%
)
Uruguay River @Salto Grande
RCP4.5 G4
MIROC-ESM
Uruguay River - Streamflow change (%) – Reference period: 1991-2000
Paso de los Libres
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-60
-40
-20
0
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2021-2045 2046-2070
Stre
amflo
w c
hang
e (%
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Paraná River @Itaipú
RCP4.5 G4
CSIRO Mk3L-1-2
-60
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-20
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40
60
2021-2045 2046-2070
Stre
amflo
w c
hang
e (%
)
Paraná River @Itaipú
RCP4.5 G4
MIROC-ESM
Paraná River - Streamflow change (%) – Reference period: 1991-2000
Paso de los Libres
-60
-40
-20
0
20
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60
2021-2045 2046-2070
Stre
amflo
w c
hang
e (%
)
Uruguay River @Salto Grande
RCP4.5 G4
CSIRO Mk3L-1-2
-60
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2021-2045 2046-2070
Stre
amflo
w c
hang
e (%
)
Paraná River @Itaipú
RCP4.5 G4
CSIRO Mk3L-1-2
G4
Expe
rmie
ntvs
. 199
1-20
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Uruguay River @Salto Grande
RCP4.5 G4
CSIRO Mk3L-1-2
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2021-2045 2046-2070
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amflo
w c
hang
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Paraná River @Itaipú
RCP4.5 G4
CSIRO Mk3L-1-2
RCP4
.5 v
s. 1
991-
2000
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2021-2045 2046-2070
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w c
hang
e (%
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Uruguay River @Salto Grande
RCP4.5 G4
CSIRO Mk3L-1-2
G4
Expe
rimen
tvs.
RCP
4.5
-60
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2021-2045 2046-2070
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hang
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Paraná River @Itaipú
RCP4.5 G4
CSIRO Mk3L-1-2
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RCP4.5 G4
MIROC-ESM
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2021-2045 2046-2070
Stre
amflo
w c
hang
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Paraná River @Itaipú
RCP4.5 G4
MIROC-ESM
G4
Expe
rmie
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RCP4.5 G4
MIROC-ESM
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2021-2045 2046-2070
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RCP4.5 G4
MIROC-ESM
RCP4
.5 v
s. 1
991-
2000
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-60
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2021-2045 2046-2070
Stre
amflo
w c
hang
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Uruguay River @Salto Grande
RCP4.5 G4
MIROC-ESM
G4
Expe
rimen
tvs.
RCP
4.5
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2021-2045 2046-2070
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amflo
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hang
e (%
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Paraná River @Itaipú
RCP4.5 G4
MIROC-ESM
-60
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2021-2045 2046-2070
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RCP4.5 G4
CSIRO Mk3L-1-2
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amflo
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hang
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Paraná River @Itaipú
RCP4.5 G4
CSIRO Mk3L-1-2
CSIR
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k3L-
1-2
vs. M
IRO
C ES
M
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RCP4.5 G4
MIROC-ESM
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Paraná River @Itaipú
RCP4.5 G4
MIROC-ESM
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Thank you!
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