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Global Sea level rise: Thermal Expansion = 57% Melting of glaciers = 28% Melting at Antarctica and Greenland = 15%

Melting of Glaciers: Alaska: 3 C rise in temp in the last 30 years

Glaciers melting at alarming rate Contributed at least 9% of global sea-level rise Permafrost melting decomposition of vegetation rise in CO2 Kilimanjaro 82% of the snow cap has melted Very rapid melting of glaciers in the Himalaya and in the Andes

If all the ice melted sea level will rise by 75m inundating 20% of the

Earths land area. No Florida!! Even a partial melting of Antarctica ice cap will raise sea level by 3 to

6m. Fear of calving from Ross Ice Shelf

Globally sea-levels rose 10-20 cm in the 20th century 10X fasterthan the last 3000 years

1 m rise = 1 billion people displaced

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NASA image of Greenland Ice melting

Low coastal areas lost 3X more ice due to melting and

ice berg formation than high interiors

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IPCC predicts mean sea level to be a meter

(100 cm) or more higher than todays at the

end of the 21st century

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KEY FINDINGS (National Assessment Synthesis Team)

1. Increased warmingAssuming continued growth in world greenhouse gas emissions, the climate models used

in this Assessment project that temperatures in the US will rise 5-10F (3-6C) on average

in the next 100 years.

2. Differing regional impacts

Climate change will vary widely across the US. Temperature increases will vary somewhat

from one region to the next. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are likely to become

more frequent, yet some regions will get drier. The potential impacts of climate change

will also vary widely across the nation.

Global Warming

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3. Vulnerable ecosystems

Ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the projected rate and magnitude of climate change. A

few, such as alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains and some barrier islands, are likely todisappear entirely, while others, such as forests of the Southeast, are likely to experience

major species shifts or break up. The goods and services lost through the disappearance or

fragmentation of certain ecosystems are likely to be costly or impossible to replace.

4. Widespread water concerns

Water is an issue in every region, but the nature of the vulnerabilities varies, with differentnuances in each. Drought is an important concern in every region. Floods and water quality

are concerns in many regions. Snowpack changes are especially important in the West, Pacific

Northwest, and Alaska.

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5. Secure food supply

At the national level, the agriculture sector is likely to be able to adapt to climate change.

Overall, US crop productivity is very likely to increase over the next few decades, but thegains will not be uniform across the nation. Falling prices and competitive pressures are

very likely to stress some farmers.

6. Near-term increase in forest growth

Forest productivity is likely to increase over the next several decades in some areas as trees

respond to higher carbon dioxide levels. Over the longer term, changes in larger-scaleprocesses such as fire, insects, droughts, and disease will possibly decrease forest

productivity. In addition, climate change will cause long-term shifts in forest species, such

as sugar maples moving north out of the US.

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7. Increased damage in coastal and permafrost areas

Climate change and the resulting rise in sea level are likely to exacerbate threats to

buildings, roads, powerlines, and other infrastructure in climatically sensitive places,such as low-lying coastlines and the permafrost regions of Alaska.

8. Other stresses magnified by climate change

Climate change will very likely magnify the cumulative impacts of other stresses, such as

air and water pollution and habitat destruction due to human development patterns.

For some systems, such as coral reefs, the combined effects of climate change and other

stresses are very likely to exceed a critical threshold, bringing large, possibly irreversible

impacts.

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9. Surprises expected

It is very likely that some aspects and impacts of climate change will be totally

unanticipated as complex systems respond to ongoing climate change in unforeseeableways.

10. Uncertainties remain

Significant uncertainties remain in the science underlying climate-change impacts. Further

research would improve understanding and predictive ability about societal and

ecosystem impacts, and provide the public with useful information about adaptationstrategies.

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Shift in Predictions

from two modelsBy 2030, Illinois will have

a climate like Missouris.

By 2090, it will have a

climate like Oklahomas.

Resultant shift in

ecological communities,

agriculture patterns

Up to 30% of land based

animal and plant species

might disappear

Hardest hit will be cold-

climate-communities e.g.,

polar bears

Coral Reefs will be hard hit

More Forest fires more

CO2, loss of biodiversity

Green = Canadian model

Blue = Hadley model

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Kyoto Protocol

Conference: Dec 1-11, 1997 in Kyoto, Japan

Six Greenhouse gases were targeted (CO2, CH4, NOx, CFC-substitutes)

Their emission to be reduced below 1990 levels as follows: EU: 8%, US: 7%, Japan 6% The reduction will be done in a 5 year period between 2008-2012 Emission can be traded in global market Creation of carbon sinks like afforestation can be balanced against

emission Developing countries to benefit from clean technology The protocol will be open for signature in March, 1998, has to be ratified

by countries producing 55% of the emissions: reached in 2004 after Russiasigned it.

Entered into force: Feb 16, 2005 US pulled out of it in 2001 187 countries around the world have signed and ratified the protocol.

USA, under the leadership of President Bush has withdrawn from KyotoProtocol stating it will hurt US economy and has made no move to ratifyit as of today.

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Participation in Kyoto Protocol as of June 2009

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9d/Kyoto_Protocol_participation_map_2009.png

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Where are we heading to?

USA with 4% of world population produces 25% of CO2

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Halting emissions

California s Global Warming Solutions Act Cut greenhouse gas emissions 25% by 2020

10 NE states launched the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in2007

cap-and-trade program for C emissions from power plants

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Fig. 15-22, p. 371