2030: A look into the crystal ball - University of Manitoba · 2020. 11. 2. ·...

10.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptxWinnipeg, Manitoba – February 18, 2010

2030: A look into the crystal ball

210.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx

What happens when humans predict their future?

CREATIVITY

"Everything that can be invented

has been invented."

Charles Duell,

US patent office, 1899

MEDIA

"Who the hell wants to hear actors

talk?"

H.M. Warner, co-founder of Warner

Brothers, 1927

TRANSPORT

"Heavier-than-air flying machines

are impossible."

Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal

Society, 1895

EQUALITY

"If anything remains more or less

unchanged, it is the role of

women."

David Riesman, Conservative

American social scientist, 1967

CREATIVITY

"Everything that can be

invented has been

invented."

Charles Duell,


MEDIA

"Who the hell wants to

hear actors talk?"

H.M. Warner, co-founder of

Warner Brothers, 1927

TRANSPORT

"Heavier-than-air flying

machines are impossible."

Lord Kelvin, President of the

Royal Society, 1895

EQUALITY

"If anything remains more

or less unchanged, it is the

role of women."

David Riesman,

Conservative American

social scientist, 1967

Source: Roland Berger


2030: Consumer needs, values and lifestyles have been shaped by changes in some key areas


POPULATION GROWTH

TRANSPORTATIONINNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY

URBANIZATION

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY

ENERGY CONSUMPTION


Around 2030, Canada will boast approximately 39 million people

Source: Statistics Canada, Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2030

POPULATION GROWTH

GETTING OLDER [%] … …BUT STEADY GROWTH [IN M PEOPLE]

7.1

7.67.84.6

4.54.33.7

3.8

3.9

65 years and over

45 to 64 years

30 to 44 years

20 to 29 years

15 to 19 years

5 to 14 years

Under 5 years

2031

39

9.1

10.0

2.1

1.8

2021

9.6

2.2

1.7

37

6.8

10.1

2.0

1.8

2010

34

4.7

21%21% 20%

14%12% 11%

11% 10% 10%

5% 5%

7%

19%

27%

5%

2010

34

14%

28%

2031

39

23%

26%

5%

5%

2021

37


For the first time in Canadian history, the share of older exceeds the one of younger generations

Source: Statistics Canada, Roland Berger

15

171922

62

70696868

23

15

13130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20312015200620011981

10

15-64 years0-14 years >65 years

POPULATION GROWTH

Demographic change over time [%]

TODAY


This historic change will be underlined by two main factors


POPULATION GROWTH

NATURAL INCREASE

DOWN BY ~100% AND

NEGATIVE GROWTH

AFTER 2030

NET MIGRATION UP BY

~22%


TorontoLondon

Kitchener

Hamilton

Oshawa

Windsor

Barrie

Montréal

Québec

Sherbrooke

Ottawa/

Gatineau

Vancouver

Victoria

Calgary

Edmonton

Saskatoon

ReginaWinnipeg

St. Catharines-Niagara

Halifax

NYCPhiladelphia

Boston

Seattle

Portland

Eugene

Chicago

Detroit

Indianapolis Cincinnati

Cleveland

Toronto

London

Kitchener

Hamilton

Oshawa

Windsor

Barrie

Montréal

Québec

Sherbrooke

Ottawa/

Gatineau

Vancouver

Victoria

Calgary

Edmonton

Saskatoon

ReginaWinnipeg

St. Catharines-

Niagara Halifax

CANADA

USA

Even more people will live in urban, densely populated areas


URBANIZATION

% change in population by 2030

> 20%, Average annual

growth exceeds Canada

High density zone

> 10%

< 10%

< 0%

Size of bubble = city population in 2030


Urbanization comes with side effects

Impact of congestion

• Cost increase

• Fuel consumption

• Congestion charges

• Possible road use charges based on vehicle application, (i.e., business vs. personal travel)

• Travel Time

• Policy making

Source: Source: INRIX traffic scorecard, MEMA, Roland Berger

URBANIZATION


Energy consumption grows – dependence on oil continues

Source: National Energy Board, EIA, Roland Berger

ENERGY CONSUMPTION

SECONDARY ENERGY DEMAND BY END-USE

SECTOR, 1990-2030 [PETAJOULES]

SECONDARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL, 1990-2030

[% SHARE]

2,000 2,500 2,700 3,000 3,700

1,300

1,4501,600

1,700

1,800

6,000

1,700

2010

11,000

5,100

1,600

2005

10,250

4,800

1,500

1990

8,100

3,800

1,000

+30%

2030

14,300

6,600

2,200

2015

12,400

Residential TransportationCommercial Industrial

42% 42% 46% 50%

29% 27%

2%

2030

17%

2015

100%

16%

5%6%

100100100

2004

2%

18%

3%6%

31%

1990

100

2%6%

31%

19%

Petroleum

Electric

Other Natural Gas

Biofuels/Emerging energy


We expect environmental policies to be strengthened globally, with stricter legislation focused on sustainability


Source: National Energy Board, Statistics Canada, Roland Berger

FE

DE

RA

L

OTHER POLICIESTURNING THE CORNER

An action plan to reduce GHG and air

pollution (20% reduction from 2006

levels by 2020)

…Specifically targeted at transportation

industry

PR

OV

INC

IAL

VISION FOR CLEAN ENERGY LEADERSHIP

British Columbia

CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMISSIONS MGMT AMENDMENT ACT

AlbertaGREEN ENERGY ACT

Ontario

ENERGY STRATEGY

QuebecPOLICY DIRECTIVES

Nova Scotia


To limit global warming, CO2-emissions have to be reduced on a global basis – transportation one of key contributors

1) IEA (International Energy Agency); 2) 450 parts per million CO2 equivalent in the atmosphere

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008; Roland Berger

GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS FORECAST1) [GT CO2]

> Reference scenario

– 45% increase in CO2 emissions until 2030

– Likely to lead to >5 C global warming

– No changes in existing

> Scenario 4502)

– Major CO2

reductions need to keep global warming <2 C

22%

44%

34%27.9

23%

41%

36%

Transpor-

tation

Power

generation

Other

40.6

45%

Scen.

450

Ref.

scen

.

22%

36.4

33%

Scen.

450

Ref.

scen

.2020 20302006 2040 2050

32.5

25.7

Scenario 4502)

Reference

Scenario



1) Only 50% of group sales have to comply with NOx standard; 100% in 2010; 2) Introduction in Shanghai already in 1999; 3) Based on European standards; 4) For domestic new vehicles

EURO III

0.7

EPA 07EPA 10

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 20122010 2013 20142000 2001 20021999

0.10

EURO II EURO IV

3.5

EURO V

EPA 04

EURO IVEURO V4)

EURO II

EURO IVEURO III

0.02

0.013

2015

0.01

0.4

0.01

2030

0.02

3.5

0.1

5.0

EURO IVEURO III

EURO V

0.02

2.0

EURO VI

EURO IV

EURO V

0.01

0.4

EURO VI

>EURO VI5.0

>EURO IV

0.01

0.4

>EURO

VI

>EURO

VI

0.013

0.27

>EPA

101.51)

EURO III

EPA 98

EURO I2)

EURO II

Note: Carbon monoxide (CO) and Hydrocarbons (HC) are also subject to regulations; not displayed here

Significant progress has been made on emissions standards – no further regulation expected

Source: Press; dieselnet; govt. websites; Roland Berger

g/kWh

NOx PM

3)



By 2030, most countries will have enforced similar – strict -CO2 standards.

CO2 emission standards for

commercial vehicles expected

Euro V

Euro IV

Euro II/EPA 94

Euro III/EPA 98

Euro VI / EPA 10

Str

onge

r sta

ndar

ds

Not in focus of study

Forecast emission standards for commercial vehicles, 2030

Source: Delphi; DieselNet; Press; Roland Berger



PE

RS

ON

AL

IND

US

TR

IAL

ME

DIC

AL

Technology and innovation take an ever-increasing role in shaping consumers' lifestyles

Source: Nowandnext Innovation Timeline, BT Technology Timeline, Roland Berger

INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY

2008 2030

Mood-

sensitive

home decor

Wearable

computer

Dream

machines

Robotic

surgery

Fully auto-

piloted cars

Accelerated

schooling

3D

printers

Artificial

eyes

Synthetic

bacteria

Childcare

robots

Gene-

based

diets

Sleep

surrogates

Location

device

implanted

into pets

Road

reservation

system

Full voice

interaction

with PC

Computers

that write

most of

their own

software

Face

recognition

doors

Anti-noise

technology

in gardens

Holo-

graphic

TV

Virtual

holidays

Video

wallpaper

Single

global

currency

Self-

repairing

roads

Intelligent

cosmetics

Space

factories

Memory

enhance-

ment in

humans


Vehicle improvements

Hybrids

Electric Vehicles

Fuel Cells

AlternativeFuels

Powertrainimprovements

There is a broad variety of fields that might help meet future standards

Customer financial benefit

Challenges to be solved

Potential of CO2

reduction

Commer-cial

availability

1) Including improvements on diesel/oil

PO

WE

RT

RA

INF

UE

LS

Other challenges

VE

HIC

LE


DE

SIG

NM

AT

ER

IAL

SP

RO

CE

SS

ES



Two powertrain scenarios are likely for 2030, depending on different underlying hypotheses


CHANGES IN MARKET SHARE

PHEV/EV Fuel based vehicle

AGGRESSIVE: "THE FUTURE DRIVES ELECTRIC"MODERATE: "DOWNSIZED MOBILITY"

Fuels > Fossil fuel prices rising> Fossil fuel prices stabilize at a high level

> Syn/bio fuel prices high> Relative market price decrease for syn/bio fuels

Infrastructure > Charging infrastructure rapidly growing (urban, suburban)

> No hydrogen network

> Charging infrastructure limited to cities> CNG/LPG in major regions > No hydrogen network

Legislation > High tax penalties for high emission cars> Restrictions to enter mega cities with non-ZEV

> Limited regulatory pressure

Customer > Congestion leading to change in customer behavior (smaller cars)

> Congestion leading to change in customer behavior (smaller cars)

Technology > Cost efficient batteries> Cost efficient advanced ICE

PHEV/EV Adv. fuel combustion

Alternative fuelsRoland Berger forecast



A larger portion of commercial vehicles will have hybrid technology


SHARE OF HYBRID VEHICLES IN CLASS 4 & 5 SALES [%]

> Penetration will

differ by customer

group – fleets to

adopt first

> Regulations will

support hybrids, but

business case still a

challenge

2020

~20-25%

2015

~15%

2010

~1-2%

2008

0%

CURRENT FORECAST



HYBRIDS GROW TO 15-

25% OF SELECT

COMMERCIAL TRUCKS

Given these new developments, what does mobility look like in 2030?

TRANSPORTATION


PHEVs AND EVs ARE

MORE POPULAR IN

N. AMERICAN

AUTOMOTIVE MARKET

AIR TRAVEL GOES

SUBORBITAL

PUBLIC

TRANSPORTATION

GOES CROSS-COUNTRY

AND CONNECTS

CANADA TO THE WORLD


Ontario East

Public transportation will see significant changes – Federal and provincial investments are underway in key corridors

Source: National Policy Framework, Roland Berger

TRANSPORTATION

Together handle 73% of trucking traffic value

Hubs

Federal/provincial investments Existing transportation paths

Proposed transportation paths

WINDSOR

FORT ERIE

QUEENSTONSARNIA

LACOLLE

PACIFIC

HIGHWAY

Vancouver Calgary

Edmonton

Regina

Saskatoon

Minneapolis

Winnipeg

ChicagoDetroit

Montreal

Halifax

Toronto


1

By 2030, we expect further advancements in today's technology to create a fully intelligent transportation system

INTELLIGENT VEHICLES INTELLIGENT INFRASTRUCTURE

Collision notification

Collision warning

Driver assistance

Emergency

management systems

Commercial vehicle

operations

Intermodal freight

Crash prevention and

safety

Roadway operations &

maintenance

Roadway weather

management

Information

management

Traveler information

Electronic pay

system

Incident management

Arterial management

Freeway

management

Transit management

systems

TRANSPORTATION

Auto-pilot vehicles

Source: ITSA.org, Roland Berger


In conclusion… what does life look like in 2030?


PEOPLE

WORK

TRAVEL

HOUSING

2030

2210.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptxSource: Roland Berger

There will be more of us, and we will live longer

Most of us will live in densely populated cities along the Canada-US borders

We'll travel near and far, and in very different ways

We'll still be (very) hungry for energy, but also more environmentally conscious

Our vehicles will be more efficient, and more "intelligent"

In conclusion… what does life look like in 2030?


Thank you, and remember… predictions are only predictions

CREATIVITY

"Everything that can be

invented has been

invented."

Charles Duell,


MEDIA

"Who the hell wants to

hear actors talk?"

H.M. Warner, co-founder of

Warner Brothers, 1927

TRANSPORT

"Heavier-than-air flying

machines are impossible."

Lord Kelvin, President of the

Royal Society, 1895

EQUALITY

"If anything remains more

or less unchanged, it is the

role of women."

David Riesman,

Conservative American

social scientist, 1967

2030: A look into the crystal ball - University of Manitoba · 2020. 11. 2. ·...

Documents

Transcript of 2030: A look into the crystal ball - University of Manitoba · 2020. 11. 2. ·...