2019 Edition SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & …• From 2019 to 2028, manufacturing and launch services...

SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release

22th Edition

2019 Edition SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028A complete analysis & forecast of satellite manufacturing & launch servicesAn Extract

A Euroconsult Research Report


SCOPESatellites to be Built & Launched by 2028 is a required reading foranyone interested in the business generated by satellite systemsand their launches. The report is fully updated, providing all thekey figures and analysis needed to understand the global spacemarket, and the future opportunities & challenges.

EXTENSIVE FIGURES & ANALYSIS FOR THE COMINGDECADEAll Euroconsult research has, at its core, data derived from over30 years of tracking all levels of the satellite/space value chain. Tothis we add dozens of dedicated industry interviews each year,along with the continual refinement of our data models, and thecollection and interpretation of company press releases andfinancial filings. Our consultants have decades of experienceinterpreting and analyzing our proprietary databases in light of thebroader value chain.When you purchase research from Euroconsult, you receivethousands of data points and the expert interpretation of what thismeans for specific verticals and sectors of the satellite valuechain, including forecasts based on years of data and highlyrefined models.

INCLUDED IN THIS PRODUCT• Forecast up to 2028 in units, mass and value• All segments of the value chain reviewed• Satellite forecast database included

Purchase the report at our online shop

2

ABOUT THIS RESEARCH REPORT

6,000€Single user report incl. efilesEnterprise license available

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TABLE OF CONTENT 1/2

INTRODUCTION

4 PURPOSE5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY7 SCOPE & DEFINITIONS8 LESSON LEARNED 9 METHODOLOGY10 METHODOLOGY : FOCUS ON CONSTELLATIONS – NEW11 RESULTS OF CONSTELLATION STATUS ASSESSMENT – NEW12 RESULTS OF CONSTELLATION MATURITY ASSESSMENT – NEW13 ACRONYMS

01\ STRATEGIC ISSUES & TRENDS FOR SATELLITE MANUFACTURING AND LAUNCH INDUSTRIES

15 2019 FOR THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY – NEW16 2019 FOR THE LAUNCH INDUSTRY – NEW17 WHAT TO EXPECT FOR 2020 – NEW19 THE BIG PICTURE IN THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY20 A NEW TYPOLOGY OF THE DEMAND

SATELLITE FORECAST21 TYPE OF SATELLITE OPERATOR22 APPLICATIONS23 REGIONS OF SATELLITE OPERATOR24 ORBITS25 # OF SATELLITES – NEW26 MASS TO BE LAUNCHED – NEW27 INDUSTRY REVENUES – NEW28 MANUFACTURING REVENUES BY ORBIT & BY CLIENT29 LAUNCH REVENUES BY ORBIT & BY CLIENT30 THREE DISTRIBUTIONS OF FUTURE SPACE INDUSTRY

REVENUES31 DEMAND AND SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION 2009 TO 2018 – NEW

MARKET DRIVERS33 CONCENTRATION ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN34 NEW USER REQUIREMENTS ARE DRIVING CHANGES – NEW35 SATELLITE OPERATORS MITIGATING UNCERTAINTIES – NEW36 FLEXIBILITY TO MITIGATE MARKET UNCERTAINTIES – NEW37 INNOVATIONS ALL ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN38 TECHNICAL RISKS ALSO PART OF THE ECONOMIC EQUATION

02\ COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT AND PERFORMANCE OF MARKET PLAYERS

42 THE SPACE INDUSTRY GLOBALLYSATELLITE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY45 2019 FOR THE SATELLITE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY – NEW46 STRATEGIC ISSUES – NEW47 STRUCTURE OF THE INDUSTRY50 THE COMMUNICATION SATELLITE INDUSTRY54 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 56 SATELLITE MANUFACTURERS MARKET SHARE57 DISTRIBUTION OF SATELLITE MANUFACTURERS60 INNOVATIONS 65 DIVERSITY OF PLATFORM – NEW66 EVOLUTION OF PLATFORMS70 NON GEO SATELLITE INDUSTRY74 PROFILES OF 10 COMPANIES75 SATELLITE ORDERS BACKLOG – NEW

LAUNCH INDUSTRY90 2019 FOR THE LAUNCH INDUSTRY91 STRATEGIC ISSUES92 STRUCTURE OF THE INDUSTRY93 GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF ORBITAL SPACEPORTS AND LAUNCH VEHICLES

IN 201998 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 90 LAUNCH SERVICE PROVIDERS MARKET SHARE91 THE GTO LAUNCH INDUSTRY109 LEO LAUCH INDUSTRY110 LAUNCH RATES – NEW111 INNOVATIONS – NEW112 LAUNCH BACKLOG – NEW113 PROFILES OF 4 COMPANIES

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03\ COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT AND PERFORMANCE OF MARKET PLAYERS

120 TRENDS FOR COMMERCIAL DEMAND 121 DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL SATELLITES122 THE THREE ORBITS (GEO, MEO, LEO) ARE NOW COMMERCIAL125 COMMERCIAL SPACE STILL MEANS COMMUNICATION SATELLITES126 THE COMMERCIAL MARKET BY APPLICATION134 GEO COMSAT MARKET DEMAND AT A TURNING POINT– NEW140 GEO COMSAT DEMAND CYCLE – NEW141 HIGH-THROUGHPUT PAYLOADS FOR BROADBAND COMMUNICATION145 COMSAT MARKET DRIVEN BY CONSOLIDATION OF EXISTING OPERATORS & BY NEW ENTRANT146 EIGHT COMSAT CONSTELLATIONS, OF WHICH SEVEN FOR BROADBAND COMMUNICATIONS 150 COMMERCIAL EARTH OBSERVATION 151 IN-ORBIT SERVICING OF COMSAT SYSTEMS

04/ GOVERNMENT SATELLITE DEMAND

153 TRENDS FOR GOVERNMENT DEMAND – NEW154 GOVERNMENT MARKET HIERARCHY – NEW155 MARKET HIERARCHY BETWEEN CUSTOMERS, APPLICATIONS AND REGIONS161 GROWTH IN FUTURE GOVERNMENT DEMAND IS DRIVEN BY CIVILIAN SATELLITES162 EARTH OBSERVATION DOMINANT FOR CIVILIAN SATELLITES168 ASIA DOMINATES CIVILIAN SATELLITE MARKET AND THE USA THE MILITARY MARKET170 NEWCOMER SPACE COUNTRIES172 MARKET DYNAMICS BY ORBIT: LEO, MEO, GEO, ESCAPE180 MARKET DYNAMICS BY APPLICATION: COMSAT, NAVSAT, METSAT, EOSAT, SECURITY …

05/ SATELLITE BACKLOG AND FORECAST

BACKLOG OF COMMERCIAL SATELLITES UNDER CONSTRUCTION TO BE LAUNCHED FROM JAN. 2019EUROCONSULT’S FORECAST OF GOVERNMENT SATELLITES TO BE LAUNCHED OVER 2019–2028

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TABLE OF CONTENT 2/2


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SATELLITE INDUSTRY EXPERIENCING DISRUPTIONOver the next 10 years, Euroconsult anticipates that anticipates an average of 990satellites will be launched every year for the next ten years, regardless of theirmass*. The demand is experiencing a x4 increase with 9,900 satellites to be launchedby 2028 compared to the to 2,300 satellites launched during the last decade. With a 4YCAGR of 21% between 2019 and 2023 in number of satellites, the industry isexperiencing a quick and radical transformation regarding the number of satellites,value and mass highlighted by the following trends:

• From 2019 to 2028, manufacturing and launch services combined should reach amarket value of $292 billion of which 75% concentrated by satellite manufacturingand 25% for launch activities.

• Commercial satellite operators are experiencing significant changes that are part ofa long term from a legacy GEO comsat broadcasting business to more data centricuse cases. Euroconsult estimates that the demand to build and launch Telecomsatellites will reach a yearly average of $8 billions.

• Constellations in LEO and MEO will concentrate 77% of the demand in satelliteswhilst GEO will only retain 4% but still concentrate 39% in value. 55 commercialconstellations projects (of more than 5 satellites each) will launch a total of 6,600satellites.

• Smallsat broadband mega-constellations are becoming a reality by enteringdeployment phase after the successful in-orbit validation of prototypes and thelatest financing rounds of the most advanced projects, OneWeb and Starlink. Otherprojects out of the smallsat range are gearing up too (Telesat, Kuiper) but have yetto commit to their suppliers. These four mega constellations (Oneweb, Starlink,Telesat and Kuiper) accounting for 39% of the demand (i.e. 3,900 satellites) withdifferent go-to-market and vertical integration strategies.

5

230 990

EO SECURITY

36%13%28%

EOTELECOM SECURITY

31%

15%27%

Average number of satellites launched per year

Top 3 applications (satellite manufacturing and launch value)

2009 2018 2019 2028

TELECOM

*Manned spaceflight application is not included in the scope of this report


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Civil government agencies* are the first customers of satellites, with 40% of the demandin value, above defense and commercial operators. Expansion of space science,exploration and earth observation are driving the demand. On the defense side, atransformative period is starting with program replacement and enactment of newstrategies within each of the incumbent players like the U.S., China, Russia, Japan, Indiaand Europe.

• For manufacturers, the commercial GEO comsat market is showing signs of recoveryfrom the previous years’ downturn with 10 satellite orders to date, making 2019 better inorders compared to 2017 and 2018. The market is also experiencing a growing diversityof satellite platforms. Airbus or Maxar have secured first orders for fully reconfigurablebroadband payloads enabling satellite operators to mitigate evolution of their verticalmarkets. At the lower end of the spectrum, a few smallsat missions are also underintegration for the same purposes.

• The access to space industry is diversifying with new smallsat dedicated launchersbecoming a reality, such as Rocket. In this segment, dozens of launchers are underdevelopment around the world, with different levels of maturity. A new generation of GTOcapable launchers will be entering the market within the next two years with a design tocost focus. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s semi reusable launcher has been widely accepted bysatellite operators, and fully reusable launchers are entering their development phase.

NEW SCOPE FOR THE 2019 EDITIONFor this edition, the scope of the report was extended to include the global satellite demand,regardless of the satellites’ mass (previous editions included satellites with a launch mass>50 kg). This new scope aims to provide a global overview of the satellite demand andincludes the impact of the growth of smallsat (<500 kg) over the rest of the market. Eventhough this report includes the forecast of Euroconsult’s Prospects for the Small SatelliteMarket 5th ed. (August 2019), the analysis does not focus on the smallsat mass category.

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THE WORLD’S SATELLITE MARKET OVER TWO DECADES (according to Euroconsult’s 2019 forecast)

2009–2018 2019–2028 Growthrate

Satellites launched & to be launched 2,298 satellites

9,935 Satellites x 4

Total mass launched & to be launched 2,321 tons 3,941 tons +70%

Satellite industry revenue for the decade, of which

$228 billion

$292 billion +28%

• Manufacturing revenue $173 billion $218.8 billion +27%

• Launch revenue $55 billion $73.6 billion +33%

0 kg

Prospects for the Small

Satellite Market

500 kg ∞ kg

Satellites to be Built and Launched

(previous editions)

Satellites to be built and launched (2019 edition)

50 kg

Most dominant orbits (# of satellites, mass and manufacturing & launch value)

SSO(920 sats)

T T

GEO($106 billion)

2009 2018 2019 2028

GEO($103 billion)

GEO(1,492 Tons)

LEO(6,630 sats)

LEO(1,658 Tons)

*Manned spaceflight application is not included in the scope of this report


-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

1997-2006 1998-2007 2000-2009 2002-2011 2004-2013 2007-2016 2009-2018

21 years of comparison possible

METHODOLOGYThe methodology and segmentation for this report has been consistentthroughout all editions of the survey since its first release 22 years ago. Ifimprovements have been introduced in the granularity of the forecast, thetwo basic principles have remained the same:• Mutually exclusive and completely exhaustive segmentation (see below)

in order to be representative of the whole space industry (but to avoiddouble counting);

• Large constellation projects (as of today or in the late 1990s) alwaysindividualized for comparison to be consistent over the long term.

The quantitative forecast model includes three stages of assumptions:• Number of satellites to be launched over the next 10 years—Some of

them are already under construction (see next page), but most of themremain to be funded, including commercial constellations;

• Mass of the satellites to be launched, according to a mass distributionmodel by application/orbit presented in Parts 3 and 4; and

• Cost to build and launch the satellites, based on specific prices to buildand launch them. The price per kilogram varies according to the supplierorigin, the mission of the satellite, the payload and the orbit.

SATELLITE LAUNCH MASSAverage launch mass per application is assumed for satellites when it isnot otherwise known or easy to estimate on a case-by-case basis (seesatellites nominatively in part 5).SPECIFIC PRICES ($ PER KG)Future satellite manufacturing and launch prices are estimated based onhistorical price data points that allow correlating a given mass with a givenprice to derive specific prices, i.e., price per kilogram. Change in averagespecific prices per satellite category or launch category were assumed forthe next decade (2019-2028) relative to the past decade (2009-2018). Therevenues of satellite manufacturing and launch are annualized (i.e. not100% of the revenue is recognized at launch year). Satellite manufacturingprices differ according to the application of the satellite system, the payloadand the origin of the satellite integrator. Satellite launch prices differaccording to the final orbit and the origin of the launch provider. The originof the supplier and the mass category are also considered. 7

LESSON LEARNED FROM OVER 20 YEARS

Euroconsult’s satellite forecast versus market reality throughout 7 editions of its Survey

Constellation overestimate vs. reality

Non-GEO

GEO

% of difference in number of satellites per comparable period between forecast and reality

A reality check of Euroconsult’s forecast has been conducted in preparation for the2019 edition of the survey. The number of GEO and non-GEO satellites launched inthe past ten years (2009–2018) was compared with our forecast for that period. Inthe 2009 edition of our survey that covered that period, we had a non-GEO surplusof 11% and a GEO deficit of -3%.2010 Edition was the first one since 2000 to underestimate the non-GEO segment(mainly commercial constellations) whereas previous editions corrected previousover-estimates Our deficit in GEO forecast reflects a higher-than-expected resiliencyof the GEO comsat market after crisis time. In the early 2010s, government comsatsystems compensated for the slowdown in commercial comsat more than expected.

Euro

cons

ult d

efic

itEu

roco

nsul

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plus


2019 FOR THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY

* Inclusive of all missions **Satellites with a launch mass < 500 kg

389 t launched

The U.S. accounted for 57% of the demand

277satellites

LEO/SSO concentrated both the

heaviest payloads (225tons) and the highest number of satellites

(438) commercialGEO comsat ordered

10

Telecommunicationwas the 1st application with

173 satellites

490launched* in 2019

in 103

The satellite industry generated

$27.9 billion for both manufacturing and

launch

Telecom35%

Technology29%

EO17%

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 200

100

200

300

400

500

386 smallsats**

104 satellites >500 kg


2019-2028 TRENDS FOR THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY

Of future demand in number of satellites driven by 75 commercial constellations

67%

satellites to be launched

every year by 2028

By average 38%

77%62%

62%

23%

Projects of Earth Observation constellations with more than 10 satellites each

20

countries will launch their first ever satellite

20990

Growth in number of satellites compared to

last decade (but only x 1,7 in mass)

x 4,3

In both # of satellites (4,842 units) and mass (2,300

tons) Telecom will be the largest application

of the satellitedemand in value will be concentratedby satellite manufacturing

¾

2019 - 2028

2009 - 2018

Single satellite Satellite within constellation

71%

67%

29%

33%


2019-2028 TRENDS FOR THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

In 2019 satellite manufacturers generated

$21.4Billions

i.e. 77% of the satellite industry’s revenues

Manufacturers looking to address constellation’s needs by adapting capabilitiesto mass production and standardization

Diversity of commercial GEO comsat satellite

Astranis-1 (2020)

300 kgTelstar 19V

(2018)

7.075 tons

5 manufacturers have concentrated

55%of the satellites manufacturing revenues between 2009-2018i.e. $94 billions

fully reconfigurable satcom payloads

are now marketed by suppliers5

**Satellites with a launch mass < 500 kg

Smallsats** will account for 87% of the # to be launched but only

13% in value


satellites will need launches in Low Earth Orbit i.e. 1,657 Tons

2019-2028 TRENDS FOR THE LAUNCH INDUSTRY

Satellites Launched

2,298

in 754 launchesBetween 2009 and 2018

67%¼ of the launch vehicles lifted

3/4of theSatelliteslaunched

Smallsat dedicated launchers at Various development stage100

new GTO capable

launchers will be available by 2021

4

In 2019 launch service providers generated

$6.5Billions

i.e. 23% of the satellite industry’s revenues

StarshipPayloadFairing

size

9m

19m

methane fueled rocket engines under development with a focus on lowering cost, reusability and more efficiency

6

(H-3, Ariane 6, Vulan, New Glenn)

SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release 12

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2019 Edition SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & …• From 2019 to 2028, manufacturing and launch services...

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