2018 New Year’s Briefing - Markit · 2019 Fox* 2015 Praktik 2015 Altea 2022 Alhambra 2016 VW...
Transcript of 2018 New Year’s Briefing - Markit · 2019 Fox* 2015 Praktik 2015 Altea 2022 Alhambra 2016 VW...
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
6-7 February 2018 | Frankfurt, Germany
Mario Franjičević, Senior Analyst
+49(0)6920973332, [email protected]
2018
New Year’s Briefing
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
European Light Vehicle Production
Presentation Name / Month 2017
2
Mario Franjičević, Senior Analyst, +49(0)6920973332, [email protected]
• Premium Brands’ Transition to Electrification
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Global Light Vehicle Production Outlook2017 to 2018 forecast outlook by Region
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
3
2017
2018
Japan/Korea Greater China
MEA
North America
South Asia
Europe
South America
Global LV production walk: 2017 to 2018
© 2017 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
Global + 2%
-1.6% +0.7%
+4.2%
+10.4%
+1.9%
+13.6%
+1.7%95.1 M
96.9 M
-0.22 M + 0.20 M
+0.25 M
+ 0.29 M
+ 0.36 M
+ 0.42 M
+ 0.45 M
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Global Light Vehicle Production OutlookAdvanced vs. Emerging Markets
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
4
LV Production by Region
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ions
China
South Asia
South America
MEA
South Korea
Japan
Europe
North America
LV Production by brand origin
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ions Chinese brands
Indian brands
others
South Korea brands
Japan brands
Europe brands
US brands
Late
stby
2025 C
hin
ese b
rands
will
pro
duce
more
than
US
bra
nds
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European Light Vehicle Production OutlookShort Term Growth and Long Term Risk
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
5
Europe (LV Production in Millions)
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
21
22
23
24
25
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2018-01
Short Term 2017-2020:
Better than expected market demand in Western Europe
Russian market recovery with more dynamic momentum
The BREXIT slump has yet to take full effect in 2018, with other
Western European markets cooling down in growth a bit
Long Term 2021 – 2025:
Increased visibility on OEM‘s zero emssion vehicle strategies,
showing a more agressive BEV launching phase in the 2019-
2021 time frame.
Although export ratio is considerably lower (20%) than in Japan
(ca. 50%). The Export ratio of premium brands is at 40%, the
risk being further localization
But without exports to overseas markets Europe would be as
slumping as Japan and Korea
Short Term LongTerm
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European* Exports will continue to define growth in the mid-term2017 to 2025 production growth by export desitnation
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
6
2025
West Europe
Central Europe
Turkey
Russia*
China
Asia+MEA
Americas
2017
European Shipments
Overseas Shipments
20.6 M
21.6 M
*European production without Russian output
-0.71. M
+0.19 M
+0.20 M
+0.43 M
+0.15 M
+0.32 M
+0.42 M
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
European Light Vehicle Production OutlookGrowth Trend for countries and Segments
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Mill
ions
LV Production in Europe
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
European production volume of B-CUV vehicles until 2025
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
0,10,2 0,2 0,2
0,10,2
0,3 0,4
0,5
0,7
1,11,2
1,4
1,7
1,9
2,32,3
2,4 2,5 2,5 2,6
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Millio
ns European sourcing of
global B-CUV production30%
Nissan Juke
Renault Captur
Suzuki SX4
Jeep Renegade
Toyota C-HR
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14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
x 1
.00
0.0
00
Europe + Russia
Europe w/o Russia
European Light Vehicle Production OutlookEuropean* Light Vehicle Production is facing a critical transition
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
8
2019-2022: critical transitional phase for BEV production in Europe, triggered by VW Group’s first electrification wave and its MEB platform.
2030: BEVs with a more dynamic outlook 2016-2029 CAGR : 24.5% vs overall market 0.5%. (Production w/o BEVs = -0.3%)
transitional
BEV production phase
European Light Vehicle Production Forecast
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
2 Mio
BEV units
3 Mio
Russian build
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Legislation & Regulation are a driving force for EVsEurope: New targets are designed to spur investment in electrification
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
9
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2017 2021 2025 2029
EU Proposal
Current Rule
CO2
restriction
High
Low
EU Commission proposal:
No absolute values (in g
CO2/km), but relative
reduction compared to
2021
g CO2 /km
The EU has a current target of 130 g Co2/km.
By 2021, the target is significantly reduced
to 95 g Co2/km
In November 2017, the EU Commission has made a
proposal to reduce CO2 emissions for cars:
-15% by 2025
-30% by 2030
Outside of Europe:
USA: ZEV Mandate in California and Northeastern US
(Section 177 States)
China: Government set NEV quota
+ local government set city entry restrictions
95g
-15%
-30%
transitional
BEV production phase
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9,5
10,0
10,5
11,0
11,5
12,0
12,5
13,0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Volkswagen AG (actual)
Volkswagen AG (IHS Markit 2018-01 Forecast)
Global Volkswagen AG LV Production Forecast (in Million)
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
Volkswagen AG ForecastManaging the transition to an electrified global OEM
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
10
„Dieselgate“ impact:
US production interruption
MQB Platform– end of 1st cycle
1st Electrification Wave:
MEB Platform – ramp-up
2nd Electrification Wave:
PPE Platform – ramp-up
Source. Volkswagen AG presentation: 5-Year Planning Round: Groundwork to Deliver Strategy 2025
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Volkswagen
Renault/Nissan
Toyota China
Europe
N.America
Japan/Korea
others
Top 3 OEMs Global Sales Target Markets in 2020
It is not a coincidence that VW Group’s EV Strategy is in line with
tightening regulations in VW’s core markets
VW is most dependent on highly regulative markets like China and
Europe
Renault/Nissan and Toyota have a much more globally diversified
sales footprint, and therefore not under immediate compulsion to
meet regulations
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Volkswagen AG’s model portfolio (r)evolutionSUVs and BEVs are surging
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
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2023 ID Aero Wagon
2022 ID Buzz
2021 ID Lounge
2021 ID Aero
2020 Mission E Wagon
2020 Leon CUV 2020 Vision E Coupe
2019 Q4 2020 VW D-MPV* 2020 Vision E
2018 Tiguan Coupe* 2020 Bulli 2020 C-CUV e-tron
2018 Skoda C-CUV* 2019 Arteon Wagon 2020 ID Crozz
2019 Skoda B-CUV 2017 T-Roc 2018 Kodiaq GT 2020 Seat C-Hatch EV
2018 T-Cross 2017 Karoq 2018 Atlas/Teramont Cp. 2019 Cayenne Coupe 2019 e-tron Sportback
2020 C-Sedan* 2017 Virtus* 2016 C-Trek* 2018 Seat D-CUV 2018 Q8 2019 ID
2019 C-CUV* 2017 Arona 2016 Q2 2016 Atlas/Teramont* 2017 Panamera Wagon 2019 Mission E
2019 C-Hatch* 2016 Ameo* 2016 Ateca 2016 Kodiaq 2016 Phideon 2018 e-tron
segment
2019 Fox* 2015 Praktik 2015 Altea 2022 Alhambra 2016 VW Phaeton
2019 Mii 3D 2015 Roomster 2015 Eos 2022 Sharan
2019 Mii 5D 2016 Ibiza Wagon 2016 Golf Cabrio
TBD Citigo 3D 2016 Polo 3D 2017 Scirocco
TBD up! 3D 2017 Gol 3D* 2018 Yeti
2017 Ibiza 3D 2019 Beetle
2018 A1 3D 2019 Beetle Cabrio
2020 Spacefox* 2019 A3 3D
2020 Gol 5D* 2019 Rapid
2020 Voyage* 2020 Leon 3D
2020 Toledo
2023 A3 Cabrio
TBD Golf 3D
D E BEV
- Mo
del
s d
isco
nti
nu
ed -
+ M
od
els
add
ed +
low-cost brand A B C
SUV Expansion
EV Wave
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Platforms for Battery Electric VehiclesElectrification will be supported in man
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
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Conventional
platform
Some conventional
platforms can implement
batteries, but cannot
change the overall
architecture to form a
battery-driven vehicle
assembly.
Multi-energy
platform
Initially designed to cater
to both battery electric
and conventional
powertrain vehicles.
Structure is not
skateboard style but is
more flexible than a
conventional platform
Battery electric
vehicle (BEV)
platform
Platform is designed from
scratch and only for pure
BEV applications.
Skateboard-style
architecture, allows for
more battery capacity and
more interior space with
the same vehicle size.
PSA: CMP PlatformVolvo: CMA Platform Volkswagen: MEB Platform
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“Electric Mobility will change the conventional supply chain”* Implication for future BEV platform concepts
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
13
Traditional Automotive Supply Chain Future BEV Automotive Supply Chain (?)
OEM
Tier 1
Tier 2 Tier 2 Tier 2
Tier 3Tier 3Tier 3
Consumer
OEM
Tier 1
Software
Tier 1
Hardware
Tier 1
Mobility
As A
Service
Co
nve
ntio
na
l
Pla
tfo
rm
Multi-E
nerg
y
Pla
tfo
rm
Vehicle Platform Design
BE
V
Pla
tfo
rm
“Electric mobility will change the conventional supply chain!
It offers the chance to reengage in the client-supplier relationship”
Frank Welsch, Head VW brand R&D, Volkswagen AG
* official VW AG Strategy 2025 announcements
Tier 2 Tier 2
Quicker R&D, Shorter Manufacturing time*
Less variants, Less components needed*
Lower material and distribution costs*
From 2.200 parts for ICE to 900 for battery+motor*
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Future Platform StrategiesVolkswagen AG – electrification through platform diversification
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
14
Conventional
Multienergy
BEV
PPC/PPE
E
D
C
B
A
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
PQ12
MQB A0
MQB A/B
MEB
MSB
MLB B/C
MLB D
Segment
Source. Volkswagen AG presentation: 5-Year Planning Round: Groundwork to Deliver Strategy 2025
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Future Platform StrategiesDaimler– A bet on full battery electric platforms
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
15
E
D
C
B
A
MFA
MRA LARGE / MHA
MRA MID-SIZE
EVA2
EDISON EDISON
Source: Daimler Capital Market Day 2017
Conventional
Multienergy
BEV
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Segment
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CLAR WE
(+ FSAR)CLAR
LG
LK
Future Platform StrategiesBMW Group– Learning from past experiences
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
16
E
D
C
B Li
LG
LK
LU (FAAR) LU (FAAR WE)
Source: BMW Technology Workshop Dec. 2017
Conventional
Multienergy
BEV
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Segment
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Future Platform StrategiesWhere are the Premium brands heading?
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
17
Major platform types in use by 2025 for premium brand passenger cars
100%
6%
57%
37%4%
51%
45%
8%
27%
65%
100%
27%
73%
9%
91%61%
39%
100%
100%
Conventional
Multienergy
BEV
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Initial Platform cost
BEV launch planning
Parts purchasing
Supplier base choice
Market flexibility(ICE vs. BEV)
Volume planning
BEV „experience“(driveability, range and interior)
BEV Profitability @
a). Low volumes
b). High volumes
Pro and Con of Platform typesRegion by Region outlook
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
18
Conventional
platform
Multi-energy
platform
BEV
platform
R&
DM
ark
et
Pri
cin
g
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POLL QUESTION!
Frankfurt / February 2018
19
Looking at future platform strategies,
which of the following European premium brands is best prepared
for the market environment in 2025?
(either EV boom or EV slump)
Audi
BMW
Mercedes-Benz
Porsche
Volvo
Access this poll on the event app!
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BEV Transition on plant levelHow to? The story of VW’s Mosel facility becoming a pure BEV, MEB platform plant
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
20
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
CY 1997 CY 2001 CY 2005 CY 2009 CY 2013 CY 2017 CY 2021 CY 2025
MEB Vehicles
VW Passt Wagon
VW Passat
VW Golf Wagon
VW Golf
Plant Foundation: 1990
Capacity: 1350 vehicles per day
Employees 7.700
Brands produced Volkswagen
Transformation date: 2019 until 2021
Capacity: increase to 1.600 vehicles per day
Employees: -1000 employees less (retirement)
+400 new employess (trainees)
Brands produced: VW, Audi and SEAT
Investment: Euro 1 Billion (!)
VW Mosel „MEB plant“:VW Mosel Plant
VW Mosel assemply plant production by model
© 2017 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
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Executive Summary
Frankfurt, February 2018European Light Vehicle Production Outlook
21
1. European production growth is highly dependent on external factors
Local market demand is decreasing, only Russian will be a dynamic force (but has to be viewed indepently)
Europe is becoming an export hub which is facing a transitional phase to electrification in the 2020s
2. Market Electrification is forced by legislative framework
Europe and China are driving the legislative restrictions, US in selected states
European OEMs are more dependent on China and Europe than others…
3. OEMs have three major possibilites to adapt their platform strategies to an electrified future
Conventional
Multi-energy
BEV
The Challenge for the OEMs and suppliers is to leverage the investment made in electrification by understanding
the potential magnitude of electrification. A difficult task, given the dynamic and emotional nature of that topic
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