Digital Supply Chain Fuel Distribution Systems in Mexico The potential benefits of using information technologies.

Thierry-Aguilera, Ricardo, Vilalta y Perdomo Eliseo, Mora-Vargas, Jaime

1. Tecnológico de Monterrey, Mexico State Campus,2. Lincoln University, U.K.

Abstract

Mexican Fuels Market presents the challenge to create a nationwide network capable of substituting the declining monopoly of PEMEX. Energy providers with capability to distribute car gasoline or diesel products are required. How will the Blockchain, Supply Chain Analytics and Predictive Analysis will influence the shape of such a network?, which digital services logistics providers will use to compete?. This paper provides a view of what is happening in the recently open fuel distribution market and the digital needs that it presents.

Methodology

We perform a Bibliographical Research, comparing needs for different transportation modes and their traditional controls and suggest new devices for the future digital markets. Then we prospect those needs in terms of the usage of the existing infrastructure and the future digital developments required in Mexico. The country may apply similar schemes as those used in other major countries in Latin America.

Introduction

Logistics services is the area of greatest business opportunity for a country with the potential of Mexico especially in the face of the imminent growth derived from the constant integration of the northern hemisphere of the American continent and Mexico is an important part of this opportunity.

The evolution of the Mexican market for Fuels presents great opportunities for the creation of new options of energy providers with enough capability to distribute car gasoline or diesel products in an extension of 1.972 million square kilometers that the size of the Mexican territory occupies. The Government project that has been shared with different transnational companies present the challenge of supporting the creation of a nation wide network that would be capable to substitute the declining monopoly of PEMEX. its creation and operations provide a more exciting challenge when confronted with the field of information technology. How will the Blockchain, Supply Chain Analytics and Predictive Analysis will influence the shape of such a network and the caliber of which must be proposed to empower the proposal of a logistics provider that pretends to be a contender at continental level.

Fuel distribution systems business model contemplates the service in different logistic levels, but it is understood that in principle that the major weight will be leveraged in the great distribution level of the market of fuels. Other transport or commercialization possibilities for additional services such as using the existing electric energy fuel tanks infrastructure within the same business proposal is possible, in this document we explore the different logistics problems in the creation of a fuel distribution system. Other concepts through the evolution of this market should be considered according to the capacities of the partners and business opportunities that are presented naturally based on the relationships of such partners.

The idea is to support the base case for such type of company in principle in three fundamental ways: 1. The proposal and initial generation of an optimization model of fuel distribution; 2. The definition of the Logistics Organization necessary to assume initial operations of the nature of those described. 3. The value proposal of the differentiation for the associated information technologies services provided in a network developed by such a company.

This cooperation will necessarily result in the analysis of other business opportunities as required within the company.

Due to the empowerment of Mexican customers, they are obtaining new services from fuel retailers in order to claim loyalty to providers. We believe that a model for distribution that will impact the market necessarily will require to provide state of the art digital technology in a country that suffers from the lack of security in its distribution networks.

Just as a base to understand the growth tables 1 and Image 1 shows the growth in gas stations as well as the service to consumers in different Latin American countries and the USA.

Table 1: Growth between 2014 and 2017 in gas/fuel stations in the Mexican States

Source: Statistical Yearbook (Anuario estadístico) Pemex 2014 & CRE June 1st 2017.However, large distributors face the challenge that Mexico is one of the countries with fewer service stations around the world, something that can be work by efficiently sourcing the products.

The digital supply chain must be increasingly flexible, leading to investment costs to have a delivery system fit to compete at a minimal level for a 100 percent market share. Estimates place such volume at a level of 19 million liters daily just for the Mexico City territory.

Image 1: Inhabitants per gas/fuel station in USA, Brazil, Tamaulipas State, México & Argentina.

Source: Statistical Yearbook (Anuario estadístico) Pemex 2014 & CRE June 1st 2017

1. The proposal and initial generation of an optimization model of fuel distribution;

Fuel major distribution needs to be operated in an electronic and digital platform, in which it is possible to arrive to a greater level of security, unlike as it would be done in a retailing where the atomized distribution requires personal relationship. Comparing the available transportation logistics schemes in Mexico’s distribution network versus the ones given in other regions, will help understand in a better way the importance and future development of the country’s physical and digital infrastructure. To make any delivery of fuel on time, so it is very common to use truck outsourcing for this service. The use of full tractors or “fules” as they are known (two trailers run by a truck) in the Mexican highway system. Pipelines are under the siege of organized crime in Mexico. Below there are two maps of the pipelines and for the Railroad System.

We present in Map 1 to show infrastructure capabilities for the Fuel distribution through oil pipelines and multi-purpose pipelines, as well as in Map 2 we present the Railroad network in Mexico.

Adapted from Shields 2015

Adapted from Olvera 2018

RefineriesPoliductoOleoductoWarehouse Terminal

Mexican Railroad System

Even when the transportation volume by train increased from 20% in 2003 to 40% in the last decade, we must understand that this is in no way a direct reflection of lower cost structures. The “logistics services" are the practical solutions to improve what happens along the supply chain, whether air, land, maritime and multimodal transport, sea and air charters, pickup and delivery in Mexico, customs clearance, departure and arrival notifications, packaging etc. However there are challenges to be met by Mexico in order to prepare for the digital market. Mainly the Tracking and Tracing well supported through digital systems as Blockchain (mainly promoted in Mexico by IBM company). Adaptation of the supply chain is fundamental for a company to continue operating and to make a profit, so investment and learning in new technologies, such as those mentioned in this article, is fundamental for a successful future logistics.

New Fuel Distribution System in MexicoMost cargo units in the formal fuel distribution network are certified and have the permits required by the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) through the Ministry of Communications and Transportation and PEMEX. Most fleets for fuel distribution are ultimate model equipment and they are subject to maintenance by the owners of the units and sometimes they also play the role of brand distributors. Transports calibrated by PEMEX and certified as FZ, which guarantees that the tanks are of the specified volume. All units have GPS monitoring control for respecting the speed of driving them. There exits service all across the entire Mexican Republic 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Operators have extensive experience and are expected to count with a valid type E federal license for transporting hazardous material.

Fuel managementControl of inventories for tanks may use CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) and GSM (stands for Global System for Mobile Communication) networks which immediately sends information of all the desired fuel storage tanks.These systems allows to know in a secure way by means of the Internet portal the levels of the tanks and to receive alerts by mobile devices when fuel levels are not desired. The system consists of a highly accurate differential pressure sensor located at the bottom of tanks, whether horizontal, vertical or square and up to a height of 15mts, the sensors are safe and easy to install.

Often considered as a reserved segment the fuel distribution market at the major level business needs to be examined regarding the possible intermodal transportation challenges for the SCM present in the country and region by the lack of efficient inter city transportation with the expected extra cost to pay in order to access customers on time, place and form.

Limitations

Absence of data regarding pre-existing conditions for this commerce and the impact of digital services for major distributors and developments from logistics providers of fuel and energy. Few government reports on transportation efficiency within cities for commercial purposes, and existing political bias in cities such as Mexico and Monterrey. No trustable reports on crime effects upon commerce and transportation.

Conservative estimates place the amount of fuel stolen around 2 % of the Mexico´s total demand or sale. This an important issue, since big Canadian anad American distrbutors such as Elbow River have mentioned that they would not use pipelines in their distribution. Actually Elbow River prefers to transport the fuel by railroad, on the other hand, Mexican Distributor ARZA 8q¿which operates around 300 tractors and tanks of its own) is convinced that road traffic gives a more trustable distribution strategy in terms of time and tracking. The major concern around the Railroad are delays created either by bureaucratic processes or due to attacks to trains.

Therefore an strategy using multimodal means is only feasible at certain points and limited combinations, that is to say; Puebla state and Guanajuato states are an easy target for pipeline leaks. Veracruz and Guanajuato are known to have problems with train attacks. A detailed analysis must be performed, we present two scenarios to illustrate the problematic.

In order to establish the means of distribution and their modes of transportation, it is importantmention that according to PEMEX-Mexico, in the country 786,000 barrels are consumed, it is say, 125,000 million liters per day; and to make an prospective exercise we have chosen to supply 6 states. This under the assumption of distributing 19 million liters per day. That is to occupy a certain share in each State's market to figure the costs and the possible strategy of distribution using the existing infrastructure.

The map below shows according to Energy regulation Comission the costs and best ways to transport the fuel in Mexico in a Multimodal Combination. However it is true that such selection must be performed in a scale considering the dimension of the distribution of each company. That is to say that even SHELL through its points of sale is selling PEMEX imports since they haven´t developed the required capabilities for this purpose. Map 3. Potential points of Entry for Fuel Importation in Mexico.

Source: CRE. (2017). Perspectivas del Sector, Precios, Reportes y Regulación.

Lets use the proposed volume to estimate the distribution network in 6 states and to find different options among the existing infrastructure

Table 2. Fuel Distribution, Southern Strategy for Mexico

Transport cost per Barrel of fuel

Pipeline (1 cent/km)

Ship (2 cent/km)

Railroad (2 cent/km)

Tractor (14 cent/km)

Source: Self created

Parallel to this consideration a network that may provide the volumes already considered are shown in the following table:

Table 3: Possible Warehousing Services for a Distribution Network for South Mexico

Name of the Warehousingterminal

Operational Capability

Location Transportation Mode from Tula, Hidalgo Refinery

Liters Demand to distribute

Total Cost(MXN)

HydrocarbonStorage Terminal,S.A.P.I. de C.V

280,500billions ofliters

Acolman, Estadode México

Pipeline (79.4 km)

12,443,795 $9,880,373.23

Gas Natural del Noroeste S.A. deC.V.

48,000 billions ofliters

San José I., Guanajuato

Truck (205 km) 1,067,958 $30,650,394.60

Orizaba Energía, S.de R.L. de C.V

2,310,000billions ofliters

Tuxpan,Veracruz

Pipeline (290 km)

743,242 $2,155,401.80

VOPAK México,S.A. de C.V

415,190billions ofliters

Veracruz,Veracruz

Truck (423 km) 3,970,523 $235,134,372.10

Source: Self created

Another scenario that is more feasible according to potential distributor to ARAMCO in Mexico through the refinery of Port Arthur in the opinion of David Valdes CEO of FIVAL group and Aurelio Nuñez Sales Operations Director for Energy Distribution of the same group is what they describe as the Northern Triangle of Mexico , constituted by Monterrey, Guadalajara and Mexico Cities. This triangle amounts for the majority of the fuel demand in the country. The following table with Northern Markets attempts to describe the potential of such Supply Chain. Table 4 Northern Triangle Strategy for Fuel Distribution

Warehousing Center Total Consumption

Distribution liters / day 20 %

Transport Mode Total Cost (MXN)

State Total Demand by entity / state (liters)

Expected quantity to be transported (%)

Expected quantity to be transported (lts)

Location for Warehousing facilities

CDMX 13,074,750 60% 7,844,850 Edo MexEstado de México

6,975,584 50% 3,487,792 Edo Mex

Veracruz 6,617,537 60% 3,970,523 VeracruzQuerétaro 2,135,915 50% 1,067,958 GuanajuatoMorelos 1,851,921 60% 1,111,153 Edo MexPuebla 3,716,358 20% 743,242 Veracruz de

Baja California 151,270.519 3,166,667 1,775 km / Pipeline $17.75

Ciudad de México 186,875.949 3,166,667 815.1 km/ Tractor $114.114

Toluca (México) 106,806.967 3,166,667 795.3 km / Pipeline $7.953

Guadalajara (Jalisco) 119,976.922 3,166,667 746.3 km / Tractor $104.482

Monterrey (Nuevo León) 171,224.056 3,166,667 308.9 km / Pipeline $43.246

Puebla 122,191.324 3,166,667 929.1 km / Truck CDMX/ Railroad to Puebla

$122.076

2. The definition of the Logistics Organization necessary to assume initial operations of the nature of those described.

An important decision in logistics Transportation Strategy for fuels is to know the best form to deliver the materials or the products to customers reducing the final cost of a product. A key decision is: how to transport the material. Transport systems are applied under different conditions, some advantageous, depend of factors as distance to travel and the volume of merchandise.

A service logistic provider is a company that is used to perform some or all functions of material handling and / or distribution of products, such as Truck, Train and pipelines. The main function they perform is customer integration with the company, creating value and reducing costs. Logistics experts think that Mexico has potential to give this type of logistics services.

Image 2. Channel Distribution for Fuel Market in Mexico

Source: Self made

The development of transportation services for fuel distribution will go along with the geographical expansion through the major cities of Mexico beginning with Mexico City, then creating the necessary services in the form of tanks and transference facilities at expected DC´s in Monterrey, Guadalajara, Puebla

Refineries

Transport

Warehousing

Distributors

Stations

Big Consumers

or Merida city. Given the fact that it has been proven that combining the different transportation means is the future of logistics, we will look for a clear recommendation to authorities and logistics entrepreneuers in terms of future investment to ensure competitiveness and sustainability for the mexican logistics network. The paper will review particularly the role and influence of the logistics in the fuel transportation capabilities for the Digital Market growth in such expansion of the supply chain.

3. The value proposal of the differentiation for the associated information technologies services provided in a network developed by such a company.

The use of Digital services may increase the cost of the transportation however finding the right combination of services along with the appropriate cost structure may create the conditions to compete in the long term.

Blockchain is now present in the Mexican Market and some Mexican players forsee its fast adaptation to fuel distribution as well as to other type of distribution services. Doble RR is a company dedicated to transport fuel from Brownsville to the North part of the country, mainly to the State of Nuevo León and Coahuila, and due to the importance and value of each cargo they deem important to maintain a Traceability of the Supply Chains

Blockchain technology or block chain is a decentralized database on which anyone can edit and consult information, records, certifications or digital files, with the particularity that they can not be modified or falsified. This is more important than ever in the Mexican market due to the stealing of fuel performed at pipelines all across the Mexican territory. This phenomena has created conditions under which the formal fuel distributors will need to prove the legal origin of its products. Namely illegal product or fuel is called “Huachicol” a new term to describe the mix moved through pipelines that needs to be finishd by adding a compound that will complete its chemical composition.

Image 3.Baran´s Types of Networks

Source: IBM Think España. (2017). Blockchain y logística; el futuro de la cadena de suministro. IBM

This level of transparency and immutability of information allows us to exchange value without the need for an intermediary, and eliminates the need for centralized institutions and databases.

Although, one of the greatest difficulties for the traceability of logistics is the lack of trust between the actors and companies, so the added value lies mainly in its technological characteristics, where it is, the immutability of the information stored in the network blockchain.

And given the context of insecurity in Mexico, as portrayed by the huachicol problem, this type of system represents a real opportunity to prevent risks and reduce losses. In fact, 2017 closed as a record year of clandestine outlets for the illegal sale of fuel registered in Pemex pipelines. Every day more than 5.5 million liters of fuel are stolen from the entire system, from refineries to gas stations, according to federal officials. From time to time, even the Pemex tankers are hijacked. The criminal practice, since it entails losses of more than one billion dollars a year for the federal government, and although the stolen amount equals 1% or 2% of the volume transported daily, this has a strong impact

Therefore there is a present need to track and trace origins of fuels basically, Blockchain is one possibility as discussed, and it may be completed with new upcoming logistics services.

Examples of such services may be:

GPS: Verizon Connect Systems may allow vigilance to all fleet trucks used and to maintain control over them

Centralized Network Decentralized Network Distributed Network

Invoicing: Systems such as CONTPAQi authorized by the national authority for taxes (SAT) is creating a new market for special services in a niche created for certified providers which fulfill all necessary requirements according to the law.

Tracking and Tracing: Softwares such as “Tag” allow companies to take control over orders, equipment, labor and maintenance. Other viable options may be fin don software PSI AG which offers integrated solutions monitoring pipelines for Leak detection and location. PSIpipelines can effectively be deployed for multi-batch pipelines to monitor the movement of different fluid compositions.

Compliance: Management Softwares help service suppliers to satisfy certain environmental standards for quality, continuity policies, social and corporate responsability.

Management and Resource Planning: The use of standard programs such as SAP & Oracle is common amongst service providers so many functions may be interconnected for the better operational efficiency of the whole system.

We describe in a more detailed form the services the market is requiring for the fuel supply chain in the following lines.

Industrial Billing Software (CONTPAQi)CONTPAQi Electronic invoicing is the system actually present in the market and used at some extent by distributors that will facilitate the issuance, stamping and reception of digital tax receipts and control of accounts receivable, so we can perform our business transactions and be more competitive.Some of the benefits of its use are:- Authorized Certification Provider by the Mexican Tax Agency (SAT)- Compliance with the tax provisions of the specific laws regarding (ANNEX 20) in order to issue CFDI 3.3 type of Invoicing- Includes the 17 catalogs required by the Mexican Taxes Agency (SAT)- Avoid the use of negative amounts- Calculate the taxes at the level of movements- Search assistant to assign the Product and Service CodeThe system can also issue all kinds of vouchers such as invoices, debit notes, credit notes, receipts of fees and lease receipts. And includes all addendum without additional costs and fiscal supplements.

Fleet GPS Monitoring Software (Verizon Connect)Another example of system is Verizon products. By using this technological system, distributors may obtain a 360 degree view of operations daily of our flotilla. Distributors can also find out what is happening in the field, for deliver more efficiently, improve customer service and reduce the time It takes the drivers to give a report of the updates.

Some of the benefits of using this system:

- Access from anywhere: Access to the fastest online maps of the industry from any device. Supervisors and drivers in the field see the same screen as the administrator sees in his office.- Detailed maps: High resolution maps with smart systems and details personalized tools that offer a simple, but powerful tool to see activities in real time and the current status of vehicles, workers and mobile equipment.

- Easy to use dashboards: Consult important trends by team, department or in the whole flotilla. Easily review your progress to maintain the key indicators of performance and budgets.- Productivity / use: Ability to evaluate resources and give a better visibility of the Fleet, to improve the use of goods, that is, do more with fewer resources.

Some of the windows screens are shown by the software VERIZON and are presented. In the following images:

Fleet Driving Monitoring Software (Zeek Driving)This software will help us to know the detailed behavior of each driver in front of the steering wheel.

Includes notification of events such as:

- Sudden acceleration (poor driving)- Collision- Safety index at the wheel- Curve in excess of speed

- Abrupt braking- Individual, group and general consultations- Impact

Fleet Fuel Control Software (Zeek Fuel)This software will help us to control the actual fuel consumption, measuring the amount of loadsand downloads that are made. Includes notification of events such as:- Upload and download reports- Behavioral graphs- Identify the consumption in liters and weights- Performance report- Notifications of uploads and downloads

4. Conclusions

Managerial Implications

Companies Decision Making process requires data in order to invest in developing digital transport capabilities or take action on selecting possible services providers that will give results in terms of service, cost and speed. Government may use information and conclusions to consider possible policy making.

New options must be found and new technologies adapted, the case of the infrastructure network of electric energy in Mexico presents a great possibility for investment. Most of the facilities where electric energy is created count with equipment in the form of tanks. The investment should be addressed to prepare old tanks to receive fuels. This is an unique opportunity for the Federal Electric Commission to generate other business.

We present a Map of the infrastructure of the Federal Electric Commission (CFE) to represent the extension of the potential distribution capability

Map 5. CFE Future Network of Pipelines as an alternative to Fuel distribution in Mexico

Source: Llano, Manuel y Flores, C. (2017). Ductos, ¿Por dónde circulan los hidrocarburos en México?

Findings

Big cities are better prepared for fuel distribution rather than non urban areas, lack of infrastructure development may impact the potential service and growth of fuel market. Developing alternative distribution centers and digital strategies may alleviate the lack of existing infrastructure by using parallel transport systems balancing the required services for the major distributors.

A potential problem as big as the fuel leaks and major robbery is the problem of measuring the dissipation percentage or average of evaporation. Though there are different equations and policies marked by PEMEX as well as by the CRE (Comisión Reguladora de Energía) there exits malpractice in different settings. However Digital services may contribute to control these problems.

Finally we must address the limited overview of this attemot to describe some of the problems. Possible solutions and opportunities presented in this newly opened supply chain for fuel were proposed. We believe that by considering the possible strategies for distribution the characteristics of the distribution channel as well as the digital solutions presented already by the logistics services providers a much more trustable trackable and traceable supply chain for fuel distribution may be created on the need.

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