2017 First Quarter - Amazon Web...

2017 First Quarter

Stable average and median prices Increasing sales volume Inventory declining – fewer listings Increased activity on both high-priced and entry level homes

2017 Second Quarter

Continued stable average and median prices Increasing sales volume compared to same period in 2016 Slower pace than Q1 Bank of Canada increases interest rate Affordability and value were key drivers

2017 Third Quarter

More balance Stable average and median prices Sales still up compared to same period in 2016 50% year-to-date sales-to-listing ratio Bank of Canada increases interest rate again

Resulted in some downward pressure Popular price segments were still strong

What does this mean for our 2017 Forecast?

We were close.

2017 Unit Sales

9,792

4,265

1,641

15,963

10,098

4,276

1,751

16,441

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Single Family Condo Duplex All-residential

2017 Forecast 2017 Actual

2017 Average Prices

$427,155

$240,856

$349,551$369,184

$437,744

$248,130

$348,225$374,397

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000



2017 Inventory

2,713

2,172

527

5,399

3,079

2,366

535

5,980

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

6,500



Thank you!

Edmonton’s Economic Outlook

January 10, 2017

Chief EconomistFinancial and Corporate Services

Agenda

The Context• Past Trends • Regional & Local Current Indicators

Long-Term Outlook• Edmonton, the Region and Alberta• Risks to the Outlook


Global Context

While very prolonged, global recovery is gaining momentum

Forecast growth rates in most regions have been raised

Euro zone countries finally showing sustained growth

Global financial markets remain fragile – large capital outflows from emerging markets

2018 will be a slightly better year globally, slowing growth in China is problematic due to its increasing share of global output

0 2 4 6

China

Emerging

World

Canada

US

Euro Zone

% Real Growth

2017 2018

Source: International Monetary Fund


Slide 3

Chart1

ChinaChina

EmergingEmerging

WorldWorld

CanadaCanada

USUS

Euro ZoneEuro Zone

2017

2018

% Real Growth

6.8

6.5

4.6

4.9

3.6

3.7

3

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.2

2

Sheet1

20172018

China6.86.5

Emerging4.64.9

World3.63.7

Canada32.1

US2.22.3

Euro Zone2.22

Oil PricesWest Texas Intermediate

Source: US Energy Information Administration

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

$US

Bbl

5 Year Max5 Year Min20162017


Slide 4

Chart2

Jan31.6831.6852.5

Feb30.2230.2253.42

Mar37.5537.5549.33

Apr40.7540.7551.06

May46.7146.7148.48

Jun48.7648.7645.18

July44.6544.6546.63

Aug42.8744.7248.04

Sept45.4845.1849.82

Oct46.2249.7851.58

Nov42.4445.7156.54

Dec37.1951.97

5 Year Max

5 Year Min

2016

2017

$US Bbl

100.27

102.2

106.16

110.04

102.18

105.79

103.59

103.13

103.24

97.61

93.76

97.29

Chart1

JanJanJanJanJanJan

FebFebFebFebFebFeb

MarMarMarMarMarMar

AprAprAprAprAprApr

MayMayMayMayMayMay

JunJunJunJunJunJun

JulyJulyJulyJulyJulyJuly

AugAugAugAugAugAug

SeptSeptSeptSeptSeptSept

OctOctOctOctOctOct

NovNovNovNovNovNov

DecDecDecDecDecDec

&A

Page &P

5 Year Max

5 Year Min

2010

2009

2010 F

2011 F

$US/mmBtu

8.68

5.23

5.81

5.23

4.680792

8.55

4.52

5.33

4.52

4.367474

9.44

3.94

4.29

3.94

4.197407

10.13

3.5

4.03

3.5

4.052969

11.26

3.83

4.15

3.83

3.991021

12.69

3.81

4.81

3.81

3.86569

11.06

3.39

4.76

3.39

3.830252

9.46

3.15

4.31

3.15

3.890103

11.88

3.01

3.9

3.01

4.051398

13.42

4.02

3.850648

4.02

3.850648

4.20988

10.28

3.7

3.7

4.198962

4.363336

13.05

5.33

5.33

4.442622

4.639728

Sheet1

Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices, $US/mmBtu

,

Max

5-Year

Min2005200620072008200920105 Year Max5 Year Min2010 F2011 F2011201220132014201520162017

Jan6.138.686.557.985.235.818.685.234.684.49

Feb6.137.547.988.554.525.338.554.524.374.68

Mar6.926.897.109.443.944.299.443.944.203.97

Apr7.207.167.5910.133.504.0310.133.504.054.24

May6.496.247.6311.263.834.1511.263.833.994.30

Jun7.166.217.3612.693.814.8112.693.813.87

July7.646.156.2111.063.394.7611.063.393.83

Aug9.467.156.238.253.154.319.463.153.89

Sept11.884.906.087.673.013.9011.883.014.05

Oct13.425.776.806.734.023.8513.424.023.854.21

Nov10.287.407.146.693.7010.283.704.204.36

Dec13.056.827.145.815.3313.055.334.444.64

WTI Oil Prices, $US/mmBtu

2005 20062007200820092010

5-Year

Max

5-Year

Min

Jan $46.8465.5154.5792.9541.7489.42100.2731.6889.42100.2794.0294.6247.2231.6852.50

Feb $47.9761.6359.2695.3539.1689.50102.2030.2292.0089.50102.5096.22100.8250.5830.2253.42

Mar $54.3162.9060.56105.5647.9892.91106.1637.5592.00102.94106.5492.91100.8047.8237.5549.33

Apr $53.0469.6963.97112.5749.7991.98110.0440.7593.00110.04103.3291.98102.0754.4540.7551.06

May $49.8370.9463.46125.3959.1689.23102.1846.7193.00100.9094.7089.23102.1859.7246.7148.48

Jun $56.2670.9667.48133.9369.6882.52105.7948.7693.0096.2682.5291.75105.7959.8248.7645.18

July $58.7074.4174.18133.4464.0988.44103.5944.6594.0097.3088.44101.61103.5950.9044.6546.63

Aug $64.9773.0572.39116.6186.3376.82103.1342.8794.0086.3396.30103.1396.5442.8744.7248.04

Sept $65.5763.8779.93103.9085.9675.31103.2445.4894.0085.9694.51103.2493.2145.4845.1849.82

Oct $62.3758.8886.2076.6575.8284.4097.6146.2280.0095.0086.3291.0497.6184.4046.2249.7851.58

Nov $58.3059.3794.6257.4478.0875.7993.7642.4479.0095.0096.8186.2093.7675.7942.4445.7156.54

Dec $59.4362.0391.7341.0274.3059.2997.2937.1979.0095.0098.4586.5397.2959.2937.1951.97

Sheet2

Sheet3

Oil Prices are Bounded$US/BBL

Source: BloombergChief EconomistFinancial and Corporate Services

Slide 5

-50.00

-25.00

0.00

25.00

50.00

75.00

100.00

125.00

150.00

WCS/WTI Differential Brent Blend Western Canada Select WTI Cushing

Natural Gas PricesHenry Hub

Source: US Energy Information Administration

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

$US/

mm

Btu

5 Year Max5 Year Min20162017


Chart1

JanJan2.283.3

FebFeb1.992.85

MarMar1.732.88

AprApr1.923.1

MayMay1.923.15

JunJun2.592.98

JulyJuly2.822.98

AugAug2.822.9

SeptSept2.992.98

OctOct2.982.88

NovNov2.553.01

DecDec3.59

5 Year Max

5 Year Min

2016

2017

$US/mmBtu

5.83

2.28

6

1.99

4.9

1.73

4.66

1.92

4.58

1.92

4.8

2.46

4.63

2.84

4.32

2.77

3.9

2.66

4.01

2.34

4.12

2.09

5.35

1.93

Chart2

Jan41.74Jan89.17

Feb39.16Feb92

Mar47.98Mar102.94

Apr49.79Apr

May49.83May

Jun56.26Jun

July58.7July

Aug64.97Aug

Sept63.87Sept

Oct58.88Oct

Nov57.44Nov

Dec41.02Dec

&A

Page &P

5 Year Max

5 Year Min

2010

2011

$US Bbl

92.95

78.22

95.35

76.42

105.56

81.24

112.57

84.48

125.39

73.84

133.93

75.35

133.44

76.38

116.61

76.82

103.9

75.31

86.2

81.9

94.62

84.14

91.73

89.04

Sheet1

Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices, $US/mmBtu

,

Max

5-Year

Min2005200620072008200920105 Year Max5 Year Min2010 F2011 F2011201220132014201520162017

Jan6.138.686.557.985.235.815.832.284.684.492.673.334.712.992.283.30

Feb6.137.547.988.554.525.336.001.994.374.682.513.346.002.871.992.85

Mar6.926.897.109.443.944.294.901.734.203.972.163.824.902.831.732.88

Apr7.207.167.5910.133.504.034.661.924.054.241.954.174.662.611.923.10

May6.496.247.6311.263.834.154.581.923.994.302.434.044.582.851.923.15

Jun7.166.217.3612.693.814.814.802.463.874.532.463.824.592.782.592.98

July7.646.156.2111.063.394.624.632.843.834.422.963.634.052.842.822.98

Aug9.467.156.238.253.154.314.322.773.894.052.843.433.912.772.822.90

Sept11.884.906.087.673.013.903.902.664.053.892.853.623.922.662.992.98

Oct13.425.776.806.734.023.434.012.343.854.213.573.313.663.782.342.982.88

Nov10.287.407.146.693.704.124.122.094.204.363.243.553.624.122.092.553.01

Dec13.056.827.145.815.334.245.351.934.444.643.163.344.243.481.933.59

WTI Oil Prices, $US/mmBtu

2005 20062007200820092010

5-Year

Max

5-Year

Min

Jan $46.8465.5154.5792.9541.7478.2292.9541.7489.17

Feb $47.9761.6359.2695.3539.1676.4295.3539.1692.0092.00

Mar $54.3162.9060.56105.5647.9881.24105.5647.9892.00102.94

Apr $53.0469.6963.97112.5749.7984.48112.5749.7993.00

May $49.8370.9463.46125.3959.1673.84125.3949.8393.00

Jun $56.2670.9667.48133.9369.6875.35133.9356.2693.00

July $58.7074.4174.18133.4464.0976.38133.4458.7094.00

Aug $64.9773.0572.39116.6171.0676.82116.6164.9794.00

Sept $65.5763.8779.93103.9069.4675.31103.9063.8794.00

Oct $62.3758.8886.2076.6575.8281.9086.2058.8880.0095.00

Nov $58.3059.3794.6257.4478.0884.1494.6257.4479.0095.00

Dec $59.4362.0391.7341.0274.3089.0491.7341.0279.0095.00

Sheet2

Sheet3

Oil & Gas Capital Expenditures$ CDN Million

Slide 7

Source: Statistics Canada


Chart1

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

17997

19633

19812

16948

19569

22155

15590

12404

13202

11433

10108

8536

9582

9812

10329

9903

10833

cansim-0290052-eng-592259043061

Table 029-0052 Capital expenditures, oil and gas extraction industries, Canada, quarterly (dollars x 1,000,000)

Survey or program details:

Quarterly Survey of Capital Expenditures - Oil and Gas Activities - 5186

GeographyCapital expendituresNorth American Industry Classification System (NAICS)Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017

CanadaAll capital expendituresOil and gas extraction [211]179971963319812169481956922155155901240413202114331010885369582981210329990310833

Source:

Statistics Canada. Table 029-0052 - Capital expenditures, oil and gas extraction industries, Canada, quarterly (dollars)

(accessed: December 04, 2017)

cansim-0290052-eng-592259043061

Canada, Alberta & Edmonton% Real GDP Growth

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2

City ofEdmonton

EdmontonCMA

Alberta

Canada

2015 2016

Edmonton outperformed Alberta due to its relatively diverse economy

2016 brought negative growth for the City and negative growth for Alberta and the Edmonton CMA

A serious recession scenario for Edmonton required low oil prices to persist leading to provincial budget cuts Source: IMF, City of Edmonton, Statistics

Canada


Slide 8

Unemployment Moving Lower

Higher unemployment in Edmonton is driven largely by labour force growth.

A recent shift away from part–time job gains may support consumer spending over the next 12 to 18 months

Unemployment in the Edmonton region will drift down slowly from the 7.5% range in the early months of 2018.



Slide 9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Unemployment Rate %3 Month Moving Average

Canada Alberta Calgary Edmonton

Chart1

40848408484084840848

40878408784087840878

40909409094090940909

40940409404094040940

40969409694096940969

41000410004100041000

41030410304103041030

41061410614106141061

41091410914109141091

41122411224112241122

41153411534115341153

41183411834118341183

41214412144121441214

41244412444124441244

41275412754127541275

41306413064130641306

41334413344133441334

41365413654136541365

41395413954139541395

41426414264142641426

41456414564145641456

41487414874148741487

41518415184151841518

41548415484154841548

41579415794157941579

41609416094160941609

41640416404164041640

41671416714167141671

41699416994169941699

41730417304173041730

41760417604176041760

41791417914179141791

41821418214182141821

41852418524185241852

41883418834188341883

41913419134191341913

41944419444194441944

41974419744197441974

42005420054200542005

42036420364203642036

42064420644206442064

42095420954209542095

42125421254212542125

42156421564215642156

42186421864218642186

42217422174221742217

42248422484224842248

42278422784227842278

42309423094230942309

42339423394233942339

42370423704237042370

42401424014240142401

42430424304243042430

42461424614246142461

42491424914249142491

42522425224252242522

42552425524255242552

42583425834258342583

42614426144261442614

42644426444264442644

42675426754267542675

42705427054270542705

42736427364273642736

42767427674276742767

42795427954279542795

42826428264282642826

42856428564285642856

42887428874288742887

42917429174291742917

42948429484294842948

42995429954299542995

43009430094300943009

43040430404304043040

43070430704307043070

Canada

Alberta

Calgary

Edmonton


7.4

5.2

5.5

5.5

7.5

5

5.6

5

7.5

5

5.4

4.8

7.5

5

5.3

5.1

7.5

5.1

5.1

5.6

7.3

5

5

5.2

7.3

4.7

4.8

4.7

7.3

4.6

4.6

4.4

7.3

4.5

4.6

4.5

7.2

4.5

4.6

4.5

7.2

4.4

4.8

4.3

7.3

4.4

4.9

4.1

7.3

4.4

5

4

7.3

4.4

4.9

4.3

7.2

4.4

5

4.4

7.1

4.6

5.1

4.6

7.1

4.6

5.2

4.6

7.2

4.6

4.9

4.6

7.1

4.5

4.9

4.4

7.1

4.6

4.9

4.4

7.1

4.6

5

4.7

7.1

4.7

4.9

5.2

7.1

4.5

4.7

5.1

7

4.5

4.6

5.3

7

4.5

4.5

5.2

7.1

4.7

4.5

5.6

7.1

4.8

4.6

5.5

7.1

4.6

4.8

5.1

7

4.7

5.3

4.9

7

4.8

5.8

4.9

7

4.9

5.7

5.2

7

4.8

5.4

5.5

7

4.6

5

5.4

7

4.8

5.3

5.3

7

4.8

4.8

5.3

6.8

4.8

4.8

5.3

6.7

4.5

4.4

5.2

6.7

4.6

4.5

5

6.7

4.6

4.5

4.9

6.7

5

5

5

6.7

5.2

5.6

5.4

6.8

5.5

5.9

5.9

6.8

5.7

6

6.3

6.8

5.7

6.3

5.9

6.8

5.9

6.9

5.7

6.9

6

6.9

5.6

7

6.3

6.8

5.9

7

6.5

6.6

6.1

7

6.8

6.6

6.2

7.1

6.9

6.7

6.3

7.1

7.2

7.6

6.6

7.2

7.5

8.5

6.9

7.2

7.5

8.9

7

7.1

7.5

8.8

7.1

7

7.5

8.6

7

7

7.7

8.8

7.1

6.9

8.2

9

7.7

6.9

8.3

9.3

7.9

7

8.6

9.6

7.7

7

8.6

10.1

6.9

6.9

8.8

10.2

6.9

6.9

8.7

10.1

7.5

6.8

8.8

9.8

8.1

6.7

8.6

9.4

8.3

6.7

8.5

9.3

8.4

6.6

8.2

9.3

8.1

6.6

8

9.3

7.9

6.5

7.7

8.9

7.9

6.5

7.7

8.5

8.5

6.3

7.8

8.5

8.7

6.2

7.9

8.5

8.5

6.2

7.9

8.3

8.2

6.1

7.6

7.8

7.8

5.9

7.3

7.5

7.5

cansim-2820135-eng-573391036677

Table 282-0135 Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by census metropolitan area based on 2011 Census boundaries, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, monthly(1,2,3)


Labour Force Survey - 3701

Geography (4)Labour force characteristicsStatisticsData typeJun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Sep-13Oct-13Nov-13Dec-13Jan-14Feb-14Mar-14Apr-14May-14Jun-14Jul-14Aug-14Sep-14Oct-14Nov-14Dec-14Jan-15Feb-15Mar-15Apr-15May-15Jun-15Jul-15Aug-15Sep-15Oct-15Nov-15Dec-15Jan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-1717-SepOct-17Nov-17Dec-17

CanadaUnemployment rate (percent) (10)EstimateSeasonally adjusted7.57.47.47.37.47.47.57.57.57.57.37.37.37.37.27.27.37.37.37.27.17.17.27.17.17.17.17.1777.17.17.177777776.86.76.76.76.76.76.86.86.86.86.97777.17.17.27.27.1776.96.9776.96.96.86.76.76.66.66.56.56.36.26.26.15.9

AlbertaUnemployment rate (percent) (10)EstimateSeasonally adjusted5.55.55.55.55.35.25555.154.74.64.54.54.44.44.44.44.44.64.64.64.54.64.64.74.54.54.54.74.84.64.74.84.94.84.64.84.84.84.54.64.655.25.55.75.75.966.36.56.86.97.27.57.57.57.57.78.28.38.68.68.88.78.88.68.58.287.77.77.87.97.97.67.3

CalgaryUnemployment rate (percent) (10)EstimateSeasonally adjusted5.75.86.165.85.55.65.45.35.154.84.64.64.64.84.954.955.15.24.94.94.954.94.74.64.54.54.64.85.35.85.75.455.34.84.84.44.54.555.65.966.36.96.96.86.66.66.77.68.58.98.88.68.899.39.610.110.210.19.89.49.39.39.38.98.58.58.58.37.87.5

EdmontonUnemployment rate (percent) (10)EstimateSeasonally adjusted5.55.45.45.45.55.554.85.15.65.24.74.44.54.54.34.144.34.44.64.64.64.44.44.75.25.15.35.25.65.55.14.94.95.25.55.45.35.35.35.254.955.45.96.35.95.75.65.96.16.26.36.66.977.177.17.77.97.76.96.97.58.18.38.48.17.97.98.58.78.58.27.87.5

Footnotes:

1The Labour force survey collection of tables, starting with number 282-, is large with many possible cross-tabulations for the 10 provinces and other geographic regions. To ensure respondent's confidentiality, detailed data are suppressed. Data for Canada, Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia are suppressed if the estimate is below 1,500, for Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, if the estimate is below 500, and for Prince Edward Island, under 200. For suppression levels within census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and economic regions (ERs), use the respective provincial suppression levels above. While suppressing to protect respondent confidentiality has the added effect of blocking-out the lowest-quality LFS data, some remaining non-suppressed data in these very large LFS CANSIM tables may be of insufficient quality to allow for accurate interpretation. Please be warned that the more detailed your LFS CANSIM download, the smaller the sample size upon which your LFS estimates will be based, and the greater the risk of downloading poorer quality data.

2Fluctuations in economic time series are caused by seasonal, cyclical and irregular movements. A seasonally adjusted series is one from which seasonal movements have been eliminated. Seasonal movements are defined as those which are caused by regular annual events such as climate, holidays, vacation periods and cycles related to crops, production and retail sales associated with Christmas and Easter. It should be noted that the seasonally adjusted series contain irregular as well as longer-term cyclical fluctuations. The seasonal adjustment program is a complicated computer program which differentiates between these seasonal, cyclical and irregular movements in a series over a number of years and, on the basis of past movements, estimates appropriate seasonal factors for current data. On an annual basis, the historic series of seasonally adjusted data are revised in light of the most recent information on changes in seasonality.

3For more information on seasonal adjustment see Seasonally adjusted data - Frequently asked questions.

4A census metropolitan area (CMA) is a large population centre (known as core) together with adjacent fringe and rural areas that have a high degree of social and economic integration with the cores. A CMA has a population of at least 100,000.

10The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labour force. The unemployment rate for a particular group (age, sex and marital status) is the number unemployed in that group expressed as a percentage of the labour force for that group. Estimates are percentages, rounded to the nearest tenth.

Source:

Statistics Canada. Table 282-0135 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by census metropolitan area based on 2011 Census boundaries, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, monthly (persons unless otherwise noted)

(accessed: July 24, 2017)

cansim-2820135-eng-573391036677

Canada

Alberta

Calgary

Edmonton


Change in EmploymentJuly 2014 to December 2017

Three month moving average

Job Gains Job LossesAlberta (-4,800)

Education 42,400 Primary -29,700

Health Care 28,900 Construction -19,700

Trade 16,800 Manufacturing -18,700

Logistics 15,500 Prof. Services -15,300

Edmonton Region (11,700)Education 21,200 Manufacturing -16,300

Health Care 15,100 Primary -9,300

Construction 11,000 Accom. and Food -7,300

FIRE 6,000 Prof. Services -6,800

Slide 10Source: Statistics Canada


Change in EmploymentJuly 2014 to December 2017

Three month moving average

Slide 11



-12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%

Camrose-Drumheller, Alberta

Banff-Jasper-Grande Prairie

Red Deer, Alberta

Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake, Alberta

Alberta

Edmonton, Alberta

Calgary, Alberta

Lethbridge-Medicine Hat, Alberta

Chart1

Camrose-Drumheller, Alberta

Banff-Jasper-Grande Prairie

Red Deer, Alberta

Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake, Alberta

Alberta

Edmonton, Alberta

Calgary, Alberta

Lethbridge-Medicine Hat, Alberta

-0.1073703367

-0.0860430215

-0.0485044462

-0.0300230947

-0.0020831525

0.0151123741

0.019666475

0.0277580071

cansim-2820122-eng-422408163125

Table 282-0122 Labour Force Survey estimates (LFS), by provinces and economic regions based on 2011 Census boundaries, three-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality, monthly (persons x 1,000)(1)


Labour Force Survey - 3701

Geography (2,16)Labour force characteristicsStatisticsMay-14Jun-14Jul-14Aug-14Sep-14Oct-14Nov-14Dec-14Jan-15Feb-15Mar-15Apr-15May-15Jun-15Jul-15Aug-15Sep-15Oct-15Nov-15Dec-15Jan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17Dec-17

Camrose-Drumheller, AlbertaEmployment (5)Estimate103.5106.1109.9111.2111.3110.9110.6109.3106.3103.1101.4101.1102.6103.8105.1105105.1105.3105.1103.8101.910198.195.293.295.299.1102.1103.9105.8105.2102.799.597.898.398.499.9101.2102.1100.499.499.198.998.1-10.7%

Banff-Jasper-Grande PrairieEmployment (5)Estimate198199.9199.9197.4195.6194.5197.8199.3199.2196.8193.2190.3191.2195.1197.8197.9193.9192.4188.3185.6182.3181.4182.1180.8178.9178.9180.8182.7183.4183.9184182.6180.8180.9181.4181.8180.9183.1185.7186.6183.8182.8182.3182.7-8.6%

Red Deer, AlbertaEmployment (5)Estimate121.1122.6123.7123.1122.7121.7121.2120.4120.7121.6121.7119.4118.3117.5118117.1116.5115.5114.2112.7110.7107.7107.3109.2112.6113.7112.6113.4114.1115.8114.8113.1112111.2111.1109.7110.8113.3114.9115114115.3117.3117.7-4.9%

Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake, AlbertaEmployment (5)Estimate86.386.986.685.985.185.585.28584.884.684.384.48585.986.286.686.986.385.183.6838281.680.781.2........82.582.282.281.581.180.881.482.283.584.384.584.784.684.684-3.0%

AlbertaEmployment (5)Estimate2250.72279.82304.223032295.12290.92294.32294.22291.62285.22274.72274.22290.22315.72329.52329.72325.92318.42306.72288.22269.82257.72253.72251.82257.72263.922722271.32272.62277.92274.22264.92251.52248.82251.92258.22278.52299.12310.92307.62297.22298.22294.52299.4-0.2%

Edmonton, AlbertaEmployment (5)Estimate761.1768774.2772.8768.6771.7769.1768.3765.3765.3762.4758.2761.8773.7781.7786.8789795.8797.8795.5791.4790.1790.5790791.3789.5782.6773.3770.2771.8769.5763.5760.5762.8769.5773.4779.5779.7777.4778.4781.9790.4788.9785.91.5%

Calgary, AlbertaEmployment (5)Estimate846.2859.4869.5871868861.1861.8864.6871.1871.4869.5877884.5891.1889.8888.5886.7876867.3857.3851.7847.5847.8849852.1855.6864.8867.1867.4866.1868.5873.1871.8870.1867.6870.9880.9892.3900.7898.2890.7882.6879.7886.62.0%

Lethbridge-Medicine Hat, AlbertaEmployment (5)Estimate134.5137140.5141.4143.7145.6148.7147.3144.3142.4142.2143.8146.8148.6150.9147.9147.8147.1148.9149.6148.8148146.4146.9148.4149.6150.7150.7151.8152149.8147.6145.4144.9143.3142.8144.2145.9145.8144.5142.6143.5142.8144.42.8%

Legend:

..Not available

Footnotes:

1The Labour Force Survey collection of tables, starting with number 282-, is large with many possible cross-tabulations for the 10 provinces and other geographic regions. To ensure respondent's confidentiality, detailed data are suppressed. Data for Canada, Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia are suppressed if the estimate is below 1,500, for Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, if the estimate is below 500, and for Prince Edward Island, under 200. For suppression levels within census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and economic regions (ERs), use the respective provincial suppression levels above. While suppressing to protect respondent confidentiality has the added effect of blocking-out the lowest-quality LFS data, some remaining non-suppressed data in these very large LFS CANSIM tables may be of insufficient quality to allow for accurate interpretation. Please be warned that the more detailed your LFS CANSIM download, the smaller the sample size upon which your LFS estimates will be based, and the greater the risk of downloading poorer quality data.

2An economic region is a geographical unit generally composed of several census divisions within a province. While 73 regions are defined for the purposes of sampling, some areas are too small to enable production of independent estimates from the survey. These small regions are grouped with a neighbouring region with similar economic characteristics. In the case of Prince Edward Island, the province constitutes one economic region. For geographic descriptions of economic regions, refer to the Guide to the Labour Force Survey (catalogue number 71-543-GIE).

5Number of persons who, during the reference week, worked for pay or profit, or performed unpaid family work or had a job but were not at work due to own illness or disability, personal or family responsibilities, labour dispute, vacation, or other reason. Those persons on layoff and persons without work but who had a job to start at a definite date in the future are not considered employed. Estimates in thousands, rounded to the nearest hundred.

15As a result of the wildfire affecting northern Alberta, LFS data for the census agglomeration of Wood Buffalo were not collected from May to July 2016. Data collection resumed in August 2016. Estimates for the economic region of Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake are not available for June, July, August, and September 2016.

16Excluding the territories.

Source:

Statistics Canada. Table 282-0122 - Labour Force Survey estimates (LFS), by provinces and economic regions based on 2011 Census boundaries, three-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality, monthly (persons unless otherwise noted)

(accessed: December 04, 2017)

cansim-2820122-eng-422408163125

Consumer Inflation Moderating

The region’s year-over-year inflation rate slowed sharply in 2016 and than began to accelerate

Energy prices have been a key driver of inflation with natural gas and gasoline highly volatile

Forecast is for inflation to hold at the gradually move up to the 2% range for the remainder of 2017

Low inflation will boost real incomes for Edmonton residents as average weekly wages are rising again


Year-over-Year % Change in CPI


Slide 12

-1-0.5

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

Canada Alberta Edmonton

Chart1

411834118341183

412144121441214

412444124441244

412754127541275

413064130641306

413344133441334

413654136541365

413954139541395

414264142641426

414564145641456

414874148741487

415184151841518

415484154841548

415794157941579

416094160941609

416404164041640

416714167141671

416994169941699

417304173041730

417604176041760

417914179141791

418214182141821

418524185241852

418834188341883

419134191341913

419444194441944

419744197441974

420054200542005

420364203642036

420644206442064

420954209542095

421254212542125

421564215642156

421864218642186

422174221742217

422484224842248

422784227842278

423094230942309

423394233942339

423704237042370

424014240142401

424304243042430

424614246142461

424914249142491

425224252242522

425524255242552

425834258342583

426144261442614

426444264442644

426754267542675

427054270542705

427364273642736

427674276742767

427954279542795

428264282642826

428564285642856

428874288742887

429334293342933

429644296442964

429954299542995

430254302543025

Canada

Alberta

Edmonton

1.2

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.8

0

0.2

0.5

-0.5

-0.4

1.2

0.9

0.9

1

1.2

1

0.4

1.3

1.3

0.7

2.3

2.1

1.2

2.3

2.2

1.3

2.2

1.9

1.1

1.4

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.1

0.7

1

0.5

0.9

1.7

1.3

1.2

2.1

1.5

1.5

2.7

2.2

1.1

2.4

1.9

1.5

3.9

3.3

2

2.7

2.2

2.3

2.5

1.9

2.4

1.9

1.6

2.1

2.5

2.2

2.1

2.6

2.2

2

2.6

2.2

2.4

3

2.8

2

2

2

1.5

1.9

1.7

1

0.8

0.7

1

0.9

0.9

1.2

-0.1

0.1

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.9

0.6

0.9

1

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.7

1.9

1

1.3

1.6

1

1.4

1.5

1.4

2

2

1.6

1.5

1.6

2

2.1

2.2

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.6

1.3

0.7

0.9

1.1

0.7

0.7

1.3

0.5

0.6

1.5

0.5

0.7

1.2

0.2

0.2

1.5

1

1.1

2.1

2.5

2.6

2

2.2

2.5

1.6

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.3

1.2

1.3

1

0.4

0.4

1.2

1

1

1.4

1.1

1.1

1.6

1.3

1.1

1.4

1.3

1.3

cansim-3260020-eng-542941697535

Table 326-0020 Consumer Price Index (Percentage Change (year-to-year)), monthly (2002=100)(2,9)


Consumer Price Index - 2301

GeographyProducts and product groups (15)May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Sep-13Oct-13Nov-13Dec-13Jan-14Feb-14Mar-14Apr-14May-14Jun-14Jul-14Aug-14Sep-14Oct-14Nov-14Dec-14Jan-15Feb-15Mar-15Apr-15May-15Jun-15Jul-15Aug-15Sep-15Oct-15Nov-15Dec-15Jan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-1717-Jul17-Aug17-Sep17-Oct

CanadaAll-itemsCanada1.21.51.21.21.21.20.80.80.51.210.40.71.21.31.11.10.70.91.21.51.11.522.32.42.12.122.421.5111.20.80.911.31.3111.41.621.41.31.71.51.51.31.11.31.51.21.52.121.61.61.31.01.21.41.61.4

AlbertaAll-itemsAlberta0.41.30.911.40.60.60-0.50.91.21.32.32.32.21.41.311.72.12.72.43.92.72.51.92.52.62.6321.90.80.9-0.10.70.61.71.31.71.31.421.52.11.41.51.51.51.30.70.70.50.50.212.52.21.31.71.20.411.11.31.3

EdmontonAll-itemsEdmonton0.41.3111.30.70.60.2-0.40.911.32.12.21.91.21.10.51.31.52.21.93.32.21.91.62.22.22.22.821.70.70.90.10.70.91.51.31.91.61.521.62.21.31.61.71.61.60.90.70.60.70.21.12.62.51.51.71.30.411.11.11.3

Footnotes:

2The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not a cost-of-living index. The objective behind a cost-of-living index is to measure changes in expenditures necessary for consumers to maintain a constant standard of living. The idea is that consumers would normally switch between products as the price relationship of goods changes. If, for example, consumers get the same satisfaction from drinking tea as they do from coffee, then it is possible to substitute tea for coffee if the price of tea falls relative to the price of coffee. The cheaper of the interchangeable products may be chosen. We could compute a cost-of-living index for an individual if we had complete information about that person's taste and spending habits. To do this for a large number of people, let alone the total population of Canada, is impossible. For this reason, regularly published price indexes are based on the fixed-basket concept rather than the cost-of-living concept.

9This table replaces CANSIM table 326-0001 which was archived with the release of April 2007 data.

11With the introduction of the 1992 basket in January 1995, emphasis was shifted from city data to provincial data. City all-items series were continued since many users had come to rely on this service, but the method of calculation was changed. Shelter indexes are calculated for each city. This recognizes the importance of shelter in the basket, the significant and persistent differences in price movements between cities, and the availability of local data. For the other seven major components, the movement of the provincial counterpart is used except in the cases of Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver, where a sub-provincial counterpart is used. The major components are aggregated using the city's expenditure pattern to arrive at each city's all-items index.

15The goods and services that make up the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are organized according to a hierarchical structure with the "all-items CPI" as the top level. Eight major components of goods and services make up the "all-items CPI". They are: "food", "shelter", "household operations, furnishings and equipment", "clothing and footwear", "transportation", "health and personal care", "recreation, education and reading", and "alcoholic beverages and tobacco products". These eight components are broken down into a varying number of sub-groups which are in turn broken down into other sub-groups. Indents are used to identify the components that make up each level of aggregation. For example, the eight major components appear with one indent relative to the "all-items CPI" to show that they are combined to obtain the "all-items CPI". NOTE: Some items are recombined outside the main structure of the CPI to obtain special aggregates such as "all-items excluding food and energy", "energy", "goods", "services", or "fresh fruit and vegetables". They are listed after the components of the main structure of the CPI following the last major component entitled "alcoholic beverages and tobacco products".

Source:

Statistics Canada. Table 326-0020 - Consumer Price Index (Percentage Change (year-to-year)), monthly (2002=100 unless otherwise noted)

(accessed: June 26, 2017)

cansim-3260020-eng-542941697535

Canada

Alberta

Edmonton

Housing StartsCity of Edmonton

Slide 13Source: CMHC

Chart1

Q3 2012Q3 2012Q3 2012

Q4 2012Q4 2012Q4 2012

Q1 2013Q1 2013Q1 2013

Q2 2013Q2 2013Q2 2013

Q3 2013Q3 2013Q3 2013

Q4 2013Q4 2013Q4 2013

Q1 2014Q1 2014Q1 2014

Q2 2014Q2 2014Q2 2014

Q3 2014Q3 2014Q3 2014

Q4 2014Q4 2014Q4 2014

Q1 2015Q1 2015Q1 2015

Q2 2015Q2 2015Q2 2015

Q3 2015Q3 2015Q3 2015

Q4 2015Q4 2015Q4 2015

Q1 2016Q1 2016Q1 2016

Q2 2016Q2 2016Q2 2016

Q3 2016Q3 2016Q3 2016

Q4 2016Q4 2016Q4 2016

Q1 2017Q1 2017Q1 2017

Q2 2017Q2 2017Q2 2017

Q3 2017Q3 2017Q3 2017

Singles

Multiples

One-Year Moving Average (Total)

Units

1026

1745

2096.5

952

1966

2371.5

790

1288

2488.25

1131

2710

2902

1052

961

2712.5

1008

1694

2658.5

959

747

2565.5

1119

1725

2316.25

1354

1185

2447.75

1318

1391

2449.5

1006

3669

3191.75

1134

1846

3225.75

975

1868

3301.75

843

1971

3328

665

798

2525

713

1241

2268.5

767

796

1948.5

934

1349

1815.75

643

1529

1993

973

1285

2069

1069

1361

2285.75

Quaterly Housing Starts

City of EdmontonEdmonton CMA

YearReport PeriodSinglesMultiplesOne-Year Moving Average (Total)TotalSinglesMultiplesTotalCity of EdmontonEdmonton CMA

2008Q1 20083501,1211,4716571658231520083,9796,615

2008Q2 20083057601,0656971128182520093,9116,317

2008Q3 2008248501749618642126020106,1109,959

2008Q4 2008317377995694641574121520116,1359,332

2009Q1 200921023873944840136076120129,48612,835

2009Q2 20093622796336417164351151201310,63414,689

2009Q3 20095743866869601129579170820149,79813,872

2009Q4 20091,0608029781,862165110462697201513,31217,051

2010Q1 20108155341,2031,34913946382032

2010Q2 20101,0001,1371,5772,137179515523347

2010Q3 20108995801,7071,47916278852512

2010Q4 20107034421,5281,14512468222068

2011Q1 20115186281,4771,1468017641565

2011Q2 20118916191,3201,510142510612486

2011Q3 20119217401,3661,661153511242659

2011Q4 201175010681,5341,818125613662622

2012Q1 20126889231,6501,611108311222205

2012Q2 201285113351,8192,186151217513263

2012Q3 2012102617452,0972,771166819893657

2012Q4 201295219662,3722,918139523153710

2013Q1 201379012882,4882,078112517242849

2013Q2 2013113127102,9023,841167534425117

2013Q3 201310529612,7132,013167413803054

2013Q4 2013100816942,6592,702149621733669

2014Q1 20149597472,5661,706130910062315

2014Q2 2014111917252,3162,844162823473975

2014Q3 2014135411852,4482,539198717613748

2014Q4 2014131813912,4502,709190819263834

2015Q1 2015100636693,1924,675142240835505

2015Q2 2015113418463,2262,980159822383836

2015Q3 201597518683,3022,843147626834159

2015Q4 201584319713,3282,814118823633551

2016Q1 20166657982,5251,46387812332111

2016Q2 201671312412,2691,954100118252826

2016Q3 20167677961,9491,563119810272225

2016Q4 201693413491,8162,283125816162874

2017Q1 201764315291,9932,17287218422714

2017Q2 201797312852,0692,258141416013015

2017Q3 2017106913612,2862,430151717363253

201447505048

201539589354

City of EdmontonEdmonton CMA

Single-DetachedMulti-FamilyTotalSingle-DetachedMulti-FamilyTotal

Q3 2017106913612,4301,5171,7363,253

Q2 201797312852,258141416013,015

Q3 20167677961,5631,1981,0272,225

% Change Q2 2017 to Q3 20179.9%5.9%7.6%7.3%8.4%7.9%

% Change Year-over-Year39.4%71.0%55.5%26.6%69.0%46.2%

2565.5

2316.25

2447.75

2449.59779

3191.75

3225.75

3301.759719.25

332813047.25

25250.3342110645

2268.5

1948.56742

-0.3063250765

Quaterly Housing Starts

Singles

Multiples

One-Year Moving Average (Total)

Units

City of Edmonton Housing Starts

Monthly Housing Starts

City_SinglesCity_MultiplesCMA_SinglesCMA_MultiplesQuarterYearCity_SinglesCity_MultiplesCMA_SinglesCMA_Multiples

Jan-08107479209936120083501,1216571,658

Feb-08127433243449220083057606971,128

Mar-0811620920527332008248501618642

Apr-088140317850542008317377641574

May-0811818127531112009210238401360

Jun-0810617624431222009362279716435

Jul-0877179199208320095743861,129579

Aug-0872212184241420091,0608021,6511,046

Sep-0899110235193120108155341,394638

Oct-08100259223389220101,0001,1371,7951,552

Nov-081113422455320108995801,627885

Dec-0810684194130420107034421,246822

Jan-098617214726612011518628801764

Feb-09764214964220118916191,4251,061

Mar-09482410530320119217401,5351,124

Apr-0910566206149420117501,0681,2561,366

May-0912057242104120126889231,0831,122

Jun-09137156268182220128511,3351,5121,751

Jul-09102133273178320121,0261,7451,6681,989

Aug-09182102375183420129521,9661,3952,315

Sep-09290151481218120137901,2881,1251,724

Oct-09389268598349220131,1312,7101,6753,442

Nov-09397210605333320131,0529611,6741,380

Dec-09274324448364420131,0081,6941,4962,173

Jan-10233152397180120149597471,3091,006

Feb-10275129484158220141,1191,7251,6282,347

Mar-10307253513300320141,3541,1851,9871,761

Apr-10354723620787420141,3181,3911,9081,926

May-10301257540449120151,0063,6691,4224,083

Jun-10345157635316220151,1341,8461,5982,238

Jul-10344171610339320159751,8681,4762,683

Aug-10287136519171420158431,9711,1882,363

Sep-10268273498375120166657988781,233

Oct-10269195484271220167131,2411,0011,825

Nov-1025799453302320167677961,1981,027

Dec-10177148309249421069341,3491,2581,616

Jan-1111866205158

Feb-11242105360129

Mar-11158457236477

Apr-11287217436322

May-11346296546463

Jun-11258106443276

Jul-11289356479555

Aug-11313243494311

Sep-11319141562258

Oct-11265626464786

Nov-11234175423258

Dec-11251267369322

Jan-12227239314264

Feb-12223149378219

Mar-12238535391639

Apr-12313256493474

May-12279610497749

Jun-12259469522528

Jul-12341757582853

Aug-12352303540378

Sep-12333685546758

Oct-12311543478709

Nov-1234111345051229

Dec-12300289412377

Jan-13218257304315

Feb-13276595395659

Mar-13296436426750

Apr-13412906560943

May-133279545261338

Jun-133928505891161

Jul-13358403542540

Aug-13349179614281

Sep-13345379518559

Oct-13346680540777

Nov-13377370567558

Dec-13285644389838

Jan-14290344388388

Feb-14363158492295

Mar-14306245429323

Apr-14375486544711

May-14361517504712

Jun-14383722580924

Jul-14462318686440

Aug-14468350685637

Sep-14424517616684

Oct-14496346739508

Nov-14442614641860

Dec-14380431528558

Jan-1530612284461386

Feb-1534813474991447

Mar-1535210944771250

Apr-15354619506780

May-15385586539674

Jun-15395641553784

Jul-153468295101213

Aug-15327466513776

Sep-15302573453694

15-Oct360354520587

15-Nov29712444091312

15-Dec186373259464

16-Jan187238263338

16-Feb257245325311

16-Mar221315290584

Apr-16269386338797

May-16226416328487

Jun-16218439335541

Jul-16251298387378

Aug-16218242342296

Sep-16298256469353

Oct-16284639413763

Nov-16324443436550

Dec-16326267409303

Edmonton CMA Building Permits

Slide 14


Chart1

Q3 2012Q3 2012Q3 2012

Q4 2012Q4 2012Q4 2012

Q1 2013Q1 2013Q1 2013

Q2 2013Q2 2013Q2 2013

Q3 2013Q3 2013Q3 2013

Q4 2013Q4 2013Q4 2013

Q1 2014Q1 2014Q1 2014

Q2 2014Q2 2014Q2 2014

Q3 2014Q3 2014Q3 2014

Q4 2014Q4 2014Q4 2014

Q1 2015Q1 2015Q1 2015

Q2 2015Q2 2015Q2 2015

Q3 2015Q3 2015Q3 2015

Q4 2015Q4 2015Q4 2015

Q1 2016Q1 2016Q1 2016

Q2 2016Q2 2016Q2 2016

Q3 2016Q3 2016Q3 2016

Q4 2016Q4 2016Q4 2016

Q1 2017Q1 2017Q1 2017

Q2 2017Q2 2017Q2 2017

Q3 2017Q3 2017Q3 2017

Residential

Non-residential

1 Year Moving-Average

($ millions)

804.828

469.016

1152.269

808.942

435.53

1202.6325

951.295

827.126

1362.8655

817.016

342.749

1364.1255

904.032

396.639

1370.83225

852.629

425.09

1379.144

1140.199

385.665

1316.00475

947.065

530.149

1395.367

994.43

644.26

1479.87175

1020.982

787.874

1612.656

1229.63

451.891

1651.57025

1058.956

600.09

1697.02825

889.567

625.935

1666.23125

862.975

462.671

1545.42875

879.981

921.58

1575.43875

631.928

460.874

1433.87775

722.68

435.588

1344.56925

836.333

522.16

1352.781

820.009

547.086

1244.1645

812.261

354.526

1262.66075

854.559

404.951

1287.97125

Building Permits Quaterly

1000

ResidentialNon-residential1 Year Moving-AverageTotalResidentialNon-residential1 Year Moving-Average

Q1 2001$165,325$141,317306,642Q1 2001165.3141.30.0

Q2 2001$181,919$148,330330,249Q2 2001181.9148.30.0

Q3 2001$220,236$188,940409,176Q3 2001220.2188.90.0

Q4 2001$228,439$187,189$365,424415,628Q4 2001228.4187.2365.4

Q1 2002$292,615$138,241$396,477430,856Q1 2002292.6138.2396.5

Q2 2002$247,127$97,849$400,159344,976Q2 2002247.197.8400.2

Q3 2002$351,804$184,980$432,061536,784Q3 2002351.8185.0432.1

Q4 2002$350,343$134,359$449,330484,702Q4 2002350.3134.4449.3

Q1 2003$300,194$125,601$448,064425,795Q1 2003300.2125.6448.1

Q2 2003$283,192$133,359$465,958416,551Q2 2003283.2133.4466.0

Q3 2003$316,076$152,410$448,884468,486Q3 2003316.1152.4448.9

Q4 2003$308,297$147,575$441,676455,872Q4 2003308.3147.6441.7

Q1 2004$310,635$104,788$439,083415,423Q1 2004310.6104.8439.1

Q2 2004$391,330$170,386$475,374561,716Q2 2004391.3170.4475.4

Q3 2004$366,424$126,293$481,432492,717Q3 2004366.4126.3481.4

Q4 2004$306,366$251,586$506,952557,952Q4 2004306.4251.6507.0

Q1 2005$374,563$174,787$540,434549,350Q1 2005374.6174.8540.4

Q2 2005$520,750$188,843$577,403709,593Q2 2005520.8188.8577.4

Q3 2005$460,673$304,149$645,429764,822Q3 2005460.7304.1645.4

Q4 2005$552,555$328,172$726,123880,727Q4 2005552.6328.2726.1

Q1 2006$557,577$195,728$777,112753,305Q1 2006557.6195.7777.1

Q2 2006$590,984$228,766$804,651819,750Q2 2006591.0228.8804.7

Q3 2006$645,946$270,656$842,596916,602Q3 2006645.9270.7842.6

Q4 2006$640,938$410,480$885,2691,051,418Q4 2006640.9410.5885.3

Q1 2007$730,278$257,793$943,960988,071Q1 2007730.3257.8944.0

Q2 2007$764,180$335,364$1,013,9091,099,544Q2 2007764.2335.41013.9

Q3 2007$683,109$285,455$1,026,899968,564Q3 2007683.1285.51026.9

Q4 2007$568,505$300,629$981,328869,134Q4 2007568.5300.6981.3

Q1 2008$430,603$482,510$962,589913,113Q1 2008430.6482.5962.6

Q2 2008$456,949$575,351$945,7781,032,300Q2 2008456.9575.4945.8

Q3 2008$363,633$504,646$920,707868,279Q3 2008363.6504.6920.7

Q4 2008$462,056$380,924$914,168842,980Q4 2008462.1380.9914.2

Q1 2009$304,476$385,984$858,505690,460Q1 2009304.5386.0858.5

Q2 2009$356,170$354,781$778,168710,951Q2 2009356.2354.8778.2

Q3 2009$691,488$343,675$819,8891,035,163Q3 2009691.5343.7819.9

Q4 2009$743,160$681,379$965,2781,424,539Q4 2009743.2681.4965.3

Q1 2010$736,820$195,119$1,025,648931,939Q1 2010736.8195.11025.6

Q2 2010$780,103$550,224$1,180,4921,330,327Q2 2010780.1550.21180.5

Q3 2010$640,156$319,131$1,161,523959,287Q3 2010640.2319.11161.5

Q4 2010$584,206$273,979$1,019,935858,185Q4 2010584.2274.01019.9

Q1 2011$534,840$253,390$984,007788,230Q1 2011534.8253.4984.0

Q2 2011$724,974$499,430$957,5271,224,404Q2 2011725.0499.4957.5

Q3 2011$674,113$329,584$968,6291,003,697Q3 2011674.1329.6968.6

Q4 2011$706,469$336,549$1,014,8371,043,018Q4 2011706.5336.51014.8

Q1 2012$777,248$360,241$1,102,1521,137,489Q1 2012777.2360.21102.2

Q2 2012$717,659$437,066$1,084,7321,154,725Q2 2012717.7437.11084.7

Q3 2012$804,828$469,016$1,152,2691,273,844Q3 2012804.8469.01152.3

Q4 2012$808,942$435,530$1,202,6331,244,472Q4 2012808.9435.51202.6

Q1 2013$951,295$827,126$1,362,8661,778,421Q1 2013951.3827.11362.9

Q2 2013$817,016$342,749$1,364,1261,159,765Q2 2013817.0342.71364.1

Q3 2013$904,032$396,639$1,370,8321,300,671Q3 2013904.0396.61370.8

Q4 2013$852,629$425,090$1,379,1441,277,719Q4 2013852.6425.11379.1

Q1 2014$1,140,199$385,665$1,316,0051,525,864Q1 20141140.2385.71316.0

Q2 2014$947,065$530,149$1,395,3671,477,214Q2 2014947.1530.11395.4

Q3 2014$994,430$644,260$1,479,8721,638,690Q3 2014994.4644.31479.9

Q4 2014$1,020,982$787,874$1,612,6561,808,856Q4 20141021.0787.91612.7

Q1 20151,229,630451,891$1,651,5701,681,521Q1 20151229.6451.91651.6

Q2 20151,058,956600,090$1,697,0281,659,046Q2 20151059.0600.11697.0

Q3 2015889,567625,935$1,666,2311,515,502Q3 2015889.6625.91666.2

Q4 2015862,975462,671$1,545,4291,325,646Q4 2015863.0462.71545.4

Q1 2016879,981921,580$1,575,4391,801,561Q1 2016880.0921.61575.4

Q2 2016631,928460,874$1,433,8781,092,802Q2 2016631.9460.91433.9

Q3 2016722,680435,588$1,344,5691,158,268Q3 2016722.7435.61344.6Seasonally Adjusted Value ($ millions)% Change

Q4 2016836,333522,160$1,352,7811,358,493Q4 2016836.3522.21352.8Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017rQ3 2017pQuarter-over-Year-over-

Q1 2017820,009547,086$1,244,1651,367,095Q1 2017820.0547.11244.2(Jul-Sep)(Oct-Dec)(Jan-Mar)(Apr-Jun)(Jul-Sep)QuarterYear

Q2 2017812,261354,526$1,262,6611,166,787Q2 2017812.3354.51262.7Edmonton CMA1158.31358.51367.11166.81259.58%9%

Q3 2017854,559404,951$1,287,9711,259,510Q3 2017854.6405.01288.0Residential722.7836.3820.0812.3854.65%18%

Non-Residential435.6522.2547.1354.5405.014%-7%

Alberta3404.63941.73450.33282.03511.47%3%

Residential1987.62431.61982.12121.72149.51%8%

Non-Residential1507.01510.11468.11160.31361.917%-10%

Canada21545.722926.522142.023182.223412.91%9%

Residential13629.815613.114682.814744.814706.1-0%8%

Non-Residential7915.87313.37459.38437.48706.93%10%

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table No: 026-0006

P – preliminary; r - revised

Building Permits Quaterly

Residential

Non-residential

1 Year Moving-Average

($ millions)

Value of Building Permits - Edmonton CMA

Sheet1

Growth Moderates in the Longer Term

The City experienced a sharp slow down in mid 2016.

City and region makes a gradual recovery to faster growth in 2017 while the province lags.

Continuing in-migration allows the City and the region to grow more rapidly than Alberta and Canada in the final years of the outlook.

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

% Edmonton CMA City of Edmonton Alberta

Source: City of Edmonton, C4SE

Real GDP Growth


Slide 15

Chart1

201120112011

201220122012

201320132013

201420142014

201520152015

201620162016

201720172017

201820182018

201920192019

202020202020

202120212021

202220222022

202320232023

Edmonton CMA

City of Edmonton

Alberta

%

3.4

3.6

6.4

4.1

3.9

3.9

4.1

3.8

5.7

3.5

3.2

6.2

-0.2

0.6

-3.7

-0.8

-0.4

-3.7

1.9

1.8

2.8

2.5

2.9

1.9

2.6

3.2

2.1

2.7

3

2.4

3

2.9

2.3

3

2.6

2.1

3.1

2.5

2

Sheet1

20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Edmonton CMA3.44.14.13.5-0.2-0.81.92.52.62.7333.12.9

City of Edmonton3.63.93.83.20.6-0.41.82.93.232.92.62.52.7

Alberta6.43.95.76.2-3.7-3.72.81.92.12.42.32.121.9

Edmonton’s Demographic Advantage

Slide 16


Average AgeCanada 41.0 Alberta 37.8City of Edmonton 37.7


Population Growth Slows

Population growth will continue but at a slower pace.

Natural growth, international migration and intra-provincial migration support an expanding population.

Higher levels of unemployment than typical of past years will discourage inter-provincial migration and slow the overall growth rate.

Source: Statistics Canada, City of Edmonton


Population (000) – City of Edmonton

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Average Growth 2.8% Average Growth 2.0%

Slide 17

Chart1

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Average Growth 2.8%

Average Growth 2.0%

817

847

878

893

933

949.794

968.78988

989.13446748

1009.9062912971

1030.104417123

Sheet1

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Population81784787889393395096998910101030

0.73.63.61.74.51.822.12.12

2.81585666292

Sheet1

Avergage Growth 2.8%

Avergage Growth 2.0%

Sheet2

Sheet3

Risks to the Edmonton OutlookDownside

Oil prices fall through 2018 and 2019 causing severe slump in energy investment and government spending

Consumer confidence falters with concerns growing over housing, debt rising interest rates and inflation

Conclusion of a number of major construction projects leads to further contraction in the building sector

Stricter controls on carbon emissions and opposition to energy investments constrain longer term growth

UpsideU.S. recovery gains additional momentum with proposed tax cuts and infrastructure spending

Canadian economy likely to perform better than currently forecast

OPEC and other major oil producers agree on and enforce additional production cuts

Euro Zone and Emerging Market countries succeed in stimulating more rapid growth

Slide 18Chief EconomistFinancial and Corporate Services

Subscribe for monthly updates on Edmonton’s economy

edmonton.ca/EconomicNews

Upcoming events

ESNA.CA


John RoseChief Economist

Financial and Corporate Services

[email protected]


Please refer to the next page for Important Disclosures

2018 Challenges and Opportunities:

From Oil to OSFI January 10, 2018

Douglas Porter, CFA Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group [email protected] • 416-359-4887 A presentation of BMO Economics http://economics.bmocapitalmarkets.com • 1-800-613-0205

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Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan

Canada

US

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.5

2.8

10-year government bond yields

(%)

Record


vs C$

Broad¹

vsMexican

Peso

90

100

110

120

US dollar(November 1, 2016 = 100)

TSX(lhs)US Election Day

Record

Record


S&P 500(rhs)

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

14000

15400

16800

18200

19600

Stocks

¹ Broad trade-weighted dollar

2016–18

Trump Trade 2.0

(% : as of January 8, 2018)

1


10-yr high

50

70

90

110

130

09 11 13 15 17

Canada

17-yr high

20

50

80

110

140

09 11 13 15 17

United States

Consumer confidence index – Conference Board

Consumer confidence stays strong

2


1.4

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.6

2.8

3.0

6.3

6.8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Brazil

Mexico

UK

Russia

Japan

US

Euro Area

Australia

Canada

India

China

Real GDP

Average growth 2000-10: 4%

(y/y % chng)

Global growth: Synchronized at last

2017:Q3

15 16 17 18World 3.4 3.2 3.6 3.6Emerging markets 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.6G7 2.1 1.4 2.2 2.1

3


US

Canada

forecast-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Real GDP

Canada rebound: Temporary factors

(y/y % chng)

North American growth: Canada comeback, US steady

15 16 17 18Canada 1.0 1.4 3.0 2.2US 2.9 1.5 2.3 2.6

4


US

Canada

forecast

10.0%

4.1%

8.7%

5.7%

3

5

7

9

11

06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Lack of workers

Unemployment rate (percent)

Jobless rates: US still falling… Canada improving rapidly

Greece 20.5 Spain 16.7 Italy 11.1 France 9.4 Portugal 8.5 Ireland 6.1 Canada 5.7 Australia 5.4 UK 4.3 US 4.1 Germany 3.6 Japan 2.7

7.57.56.9

Calgary Edmonton Alberta

5


Alberta

Ontario

Quebec

Canada: 5.7%

2

4

6

8

10

06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Unemployment rate

Record low in Central Canada

Canada (percent)

Regional jobless rates: Trading places

6


US recession forecast

Nominal

Real²

0

40

80

120

160

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

Crude oil price¹

Long-term average price = $55 (today’s dollars)

(US$/bbl)

Oil prices’ slow return to ‘normal’

¹ West Texas Intermediate ² December 2017 US dollars

7


-2.0

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.7

2.1

2.7

3.0

3.8

4.1

0.0

0.9

1.1

1.3

2.0

2.2

1.9

2.3

2.5

2.4

-2 0 2 4 6

NL¹

NB

NS

PE

SK¹

MB

QC

ON

BC

AB¹

Real GDP (y/y % chng)

¹ Oil producers: Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador

Canada

Regional outlook: New leader

2017 2018

8


2017:“Toronto and surrounding cities are in a housing bubble”

– BMO Economics2016:“Party will end in the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets this year”

– Canadian bank2015:“Canada is in serious trouble”

– Deutsche Bank 20152014:“Why Canada isn’t immune to a US-style housing crash”

– Maclean’s2013:“Inside the great real estate crash of 2013”

– Maclean’s2012:“Canada’s housing crash begins”

– Canadian Business2011:“Canada’s housing bubble deemed close to bursting”

– CBC News2010:“Canada’s housing bubble: An accident waiting to happen”

– CCPA2009:“Why Canada’s housing bubble will burst”

– The Tyee2008:“Canada’s housing bubble could soon burst”

– US investment firm

9

Canada

Housing: Bubble Trouble?

© COPYRIGHT 2018 BMO CAPITAL MARKETS CORP. http://economics.bmocapitalmarkets.com 10

-4.0

5

2

3

4

0.3

3.0

4.0

5.6

6.7

7.2

9.3

15.9

$337,000

$468,000

$374,000

$296,000

$369,000

$395,000

$823,000

$511,000

$1,030,000

-5 0 5 10 15 20

Saskatoon

Calgary

Edmonton

Winnipeg

Montreal

Ottawa

Toronto

Canada

Vancouver

Existing home prices¹

Governments move to cool market: New measures in 2018¹

Canada

Canadian house prices: Location, location, location

(y/y % chng : nsa : as of November 2017)

Average price(y-t-d avg)

¹ HPI composite benchmark where available ² Average price (y-t-d) ³ December 2017 December 2017 (HPI rate), November 2017 (average y-t-d price) December 2017 (average price : ann avg)


Canada

Vancouver

Toronto

0

10

20

30

40

14 15 16 17

MLS Home Price Index

Canada

Toronto

Vancouver

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

14 15 16 17

Home sales

Canada (y/y % chng)

Home sales slide, price appreciation slows

11


Federal measures:Down payment rules

Qualify at posted rate

Past amortization changes

Provincial measures:Tax on nonresident buyers (GVA, GTA)

Vacancy tax (by city)

Speculation tax (by city)?

New measure:B-20 guidelines (OSFI) targeting uninsured mortgage market

Canada

Housing policy changes

12


US

Canada

-5

0

5

10

15

05 08 11 14 17

Debt growth²(y/y % chng)

US

Canada

crossover

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

90 95 00 05 10 15

Debt ratio(ratio to personal disposable income)

Debt ratio at record highs, more to come¹ Households, nonprofits and unincorporated businesses ² Consumer credit and residential mortgages only

Households¹

Canadian consumers: “More sensitive to interest rates than in the past”


-0.9

-0.5

-2.6

0.01

0.1

-0.4

0.5

0.0

-1.2

-0.9

-3.1

0.1

-$19.9 bln

-$10.4 bln

-$0.9 bln

$0.00 bln

$0.03 bln

-$0.1 bln

$2.2 bln

$0.0 bln

-$0.8 bln

-$0.7 bln

-$10.3 bln

$0.2 bln

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2

Federal

All provinces

Newfoundland and Labrador

Prince Edward Island

Nova Scotia

New Brunswick

Quebec

Ontario

Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Alberta

British Columbia

Budget balance

surplusdeficit

Quebec: Before GF transfers Sources: Federal and provincial budgets/fiscal updates

Canada (% of GDP)

Provincial deficits: Some progress, some trouble

– FY17/18


-20

-10

0

10

20

30

05 08 11 14 17

General government real investment(y/y % chng)

forecast¹-60

-40

-20

0

20

80 90 00 10 20

Federal government budget balance(C$ blns)

Sizeable deficits for the foreseeable future¹ Source: 2017 Fall Fiscal Update

Canada

Still waiting on infrastructure spending

2009 stimulus


The termination of NAFTA would be a net negative for the Canadian economy and a mild negative for the US

Canada would see a net reduction of between 0.7% and 1.0% over a five-year period in real GDP

Canadian dollar could weaken by 5%

Consumers would be net losers

Consumer prices in Canada would be expected to rise roughly 0.8 ppts,due to the weaker exchange rate and modestly higher tariffs

It is a manageable risk that policymakers, businesses, and markets would adjust to in relatively short order

NAFTA termination scenario

16


parity

Poloz takes over at BoC(June 1, 2013)106.0¢

68.6¢

80.5¢

60

70

80

90

100

110

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Trade uncertainties, housing worries, oilline: weekly averages dots: daily closes forecasts: BMO Economics

Canada

Canadian dollar: Where next? Year-end 2017 79.5 2018 78.5 2019 80.0Canadian dollar (US¢ : as of January 8, 2018)

Bank of Canada Governor

Stephen Poloz

17


Alberta: 2.5%

18

0.5

1.4

1.7

2.1

2.2

2.8

3.1

4.9

0 1 2 3 4 5

Japan

Euro Area

China

Canada

US

Brazil

UK

IndiaTotal

Core¹1.7%

2.1%

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

09 11 13 15 17

forecast

Total

Core1.7%

2.2%

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

09 11 13 15 17

¹ Average of three new core inflation measures

Consumer price index (y/y % chng)

Inflation stays calm

Total CPI(latest month)

United States Canada


Overall CPI: 2.1%

Inflationary Gasoline 19.6%

Air fares 10.2%

Cigarettes 5.3%

New autos 3.6%

New homes 3.6%

Health care services 3.0%

Tuition fees 3.0%

Property taxes 2.8%

Child care 2.6%

Beer 2.2%

Deflationary Electricity -7.8%

Home entertainment equipment -5.6%

Computer equipment -4.9%

Toys -4.1%

Clothing -1.4%

Fresh fruit -1.2%

Household appliances -1.2%

Household furniture -1.1%

Prescription drugs -0.7%

Dairy and eggs -0.5%

Consumer price index – Canada

Inflation and deflation

Down 25.2% y/y in Ontario

19

(y/y % chng : as of November 2017)


Canada

US

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

07 09 11 13 15 17

10-year bonds

forecast

Canada

US0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

01 04 07 10 13 16

Overnight rate

QE winds downBank of Canada hikes

Interest rates: More rate hikes coming

(% : as of January 8, 2018)

Canada US Current 1.00 1.25-1.50 End-2018 1.75 2.00-2.25 End-2019 2.50 2.50-2.75

Canada US Current 2.16 2.48 End-2018 2.55 2.85 End-2019 3.00 3.25


0.2

6.0

7.6

7.8

11.4

19.1

19.4

21.8

25.1

27.1

28.2

28.2

0 10 20 30

Russia

TSX

UK

Australia

Germany

Japan

S&P 500

China

DJIA

India

Brazil

Nasdaq

Equity markets (% chng)

Global stocks: Banner year, mostly

0.1

0.7

1.1

1.6

2.3

2.8

3.2

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.2

5.7

0 3 6 9

UK

TSX

Australia

India

DJIA

S&P 500

China

Germany

Nasdaq

Brazil

Japan

Russia

20172018 year-to-date

(as of January 8, 2018)


Strengths:Oil prices lead recovery

Population growth

Still-favourable tax burden

Challenges:Diversity beyond oil

Budget deficit

Saturated commercial real estate

Alberta

What’s ahead for Alberta?

Agenda

Sales volume – for all building types Average and median sales prices Inventory levels and composition Days on Market Affordability Surrounding areas Recreational Properties

2017 - Year In Review

Looked similar to 2016 Stable prices Higher inventory Dipping sales

Consumer confidence slowly increased Unemployment rate decreased Mortgage rate increases

Edmonton CMA Unit Sales Year-Over-Year

All Residential

Single Family

Condos Duplex/Rowhouse

1.5%1.2% 0.4% 5.4%

Single Family Sales

11,536

10,533

9,983 10,09810,187

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Unit Sales

Up 0.88%

Condo Sales

5649

4943

4258 42764172

5649

4943

4258 42764172

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Unit Sales

Down 2.4%

Duplex/Rowhouse Sales

1,438

1,531

1,6611,751

1,816

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Unit Sales

Up 3.74%

All Residential Sales

19,020

17,338

16,19816,441 16,561

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Unit Sales

Up 0.73%

Sales Hot Spots - Single Family

1. Summerside: 149

2. Windermere: 128

3. Westpark (Fort Sask.): 107

4. Chappelle Area: 105

Sales Hot Spots - Condo

1. Oliver: 265

2. Downtown: 213

3. Garneau: 82

4. Rutherford 79

Sales Hot Spots – Duplex/Rowhouse

1. South Fort (Fort Saskatchewan): 103


3. Windermere: 53

4. Laurel: 48

Prices

High inventory and slowing unit sales

Average prices still remain stable

Higher priced homes continue to keep average up

Median price also remained stable

Single Family Prices

$432,657$437,452

$434,408$437,744

$434,067

$402,000$407,000

$400,000 $400,000

$390,000

360,000

370,000

380,000

390,000

400,000

410,000

420,000

430,000

440,000

450,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Median

Condo Prices

$252,017 $252,726$250,526

$248,130

$243,390

$232,500$235,000

$232,000

$227,000$225,000

210,000

215,000

220,000

225,000

230,000

235,000

240,000

245,000

250,000

255,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Median

Duplex/Rowhouse Prices

$345,598

$354,454

$347,797 $348,225 $348,712

$332,000

$341,000

$330,000$331,500 $332,000

315,000

320,000

325,000

330,000

335,000

340,000

345,000

350,000

355,000

360,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Median

All Residential Prices

$367,055

$372,408 $372,765$374,397

$371,140

$348,000

$355,000$352,000

$350,000 $350,000

330,000

335,000

340,000

345,000

350,000

355,000

360,000

365,000

370,000

375,000

380,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Median

Sales

62%

26%

10%2%

2016Single Family

Condo

Duplex

Other

61%

30%

7% 2%

2014Single Family

Condo

Duplex

Other

61%

28%

9% 2%

2015Single Family

Condo

Duplex

Other

61%

26%

11%2%

2017Single Family

Condo

Duplex

Other

Inventory

1.96% increase in inventory for single family homes next year

4.42% increase in condominiums

0.68% increase in duplex/rowhouses for 2018

Single Family Inventory vs. Sales

Price Range %of inventory % of sales

Under 200k 1.8% 1.4%

200 - 300k 8.9% 11.3%

300 - 400k 27.6% 37.1%

400 - 500k 26.4% 27.6%

500 - 600k 16.2% 11.5%

600 - 700k 6.4% 5.0%

700 - 800k 4.3% 2.6%

800 – 900k 2.5% 1.3%

900 -1 million 1.2% 0.7%

1 million + 4.7% 1.5%

Edmonton CMA Month End Active Inventory

5,500

3,264

4,0793,822

3,493

3,125

5,574 5,7185,736

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017

Inventory

Inventory

47%

38%

9%6%

2016Single Family

Condo

Duplex

Other

49%

38%

8%5%

2017Single Family

Condo

Duplex

Other

54%32%

7%7%

2014Single Family

Condo

Duplex

Other

51%

32%

8%

9%

2015Single Family

Condo

Duplex

Other

New Listings - Single Family

1. Windermere: 298

2. Summerside: 272

3. Chappelle: 197

New Listings - Condo

1. Oliver: 657

2. Downtown: 556

3. Strathcona: 223

New Listings – Duplex/Rowhouse

1. South Fort: 142


3. Windermere: 98

Days on Market – Single Family

60

52

54

63

53

45

38

42

49

37

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Average DOM Median DOM

Days on Market - Condo

60

52

54

63

67

45

38

42

49

53

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017


Days on Market – Duplex/Rowhouse

50

43

49

62

63

35

29

35

47

49

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017


Days on Market – All Residential

29

33

59

53

51

56

54

53

47

51

57

59

18

22

47

37

38

41

40

37

33

38

42

43

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017


Single Family DOM HotspotsCommunity # of Sales Average DOM

Greenfield 53 30McKernan 50 32Westmount 67 33Akinsdale (SA) 56 35Deer Ridge (SA) 89 38

Condo DOM Hotspots

Community # of Sales Average DOM

Rundle Heights 32 48Garneau 82 51Westmount 57 56Oliver 265 57Downtown 213 59

Duplex/Rowhouse DOM Hotspots

Community # of Sales Average DOM

Ambleside 19 36South Terwillegar 19 40Glenridding Area 20 46Windermere Area 53 50Hamptons 45 51

1

23

4

5

6

7

9

8

1011

13

1412

Canada $ 511,011

1 Greater Vancouver $ 1,030,475

2 Greater Toronto $ 828,838

3 Hamilton-Burlington $ 568,853

4 Calgary $ 467,807

5 Ottawa $ 394,701

6 Edmonton CMA $ 374,397

7 Montreal CMA $ 369,113

8 Saskatoon $ 337,025

9 Regina $ 317,171

10 Winnipeg $ 296,205

11 Halifax – Dartmouth $ 295,542

12 Quebec CMA $ 264,325

13 Newfoundland $ 252,235

14 Saint John NB $ 174,810

Average All Residential Prices Across Canada

Prince Edward Island

VancouverWinnipeg

Toronto

Other Communities

430,000

316,500

269,000

350,000

347,000

339,000

330,000

399,000

345,000

399,000

322,000

433,948

315,172

255,311

374,397

365,932

347,867

324,781

417,537

355,252

423,567

326,619

$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000

Beaumont

Cold Lake

Drayton Valley

Edmonton

Fort Saskatchewan

Leduc

Morinville

Sherwood Park

Spruce Grove

St. Albert

Stony Plain

Average Median

Recreational Properties2017 YTD

Total $Y/Y

% Change2017 YTD

# soldY/Y

% Change

Acreage with Home $510,964,262 3.3% 854 0.1%

Vacant Acreage and Recreational

$59,004,680 8.6% 216 0.9%

Recreational with Home $5,050,512 -5.4% 13 18.2%

Total Rural $575,019,484 3.7% 1083 0.5%

Summary

Single Family:

Unit Sales up 0.88%

Average Price down 0.84%

Inventory up 1.96%

Condo:

Unit Sales down 2.42%

Average Price down 1.91%

Inventory up 4.42%

Duplex/Rowhouse:

Unit Sales up 3.74%

Average Price up 0.14%

Inventory up 0.68%

Risks to the 2018 Forecast

Mortgage rules Oil prices Employment/migration Consumer confidence Unforeseen

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Edmonton Economic and Housing OutlookBrent Weimer, Principal, Market Analysis

January 10, 2018

Economic Outlook

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Edmonton CMA EmploymentSteady job growth throughout most of 2017

-14-12-10

-8-6-4-202468

1012

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

mo/mo seasonally adjusted employment growth (000s)


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