2017 03-21 ctp update and assessment
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AEI’s Critical Threats Project Update and Assessment March 21, 2017
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Transcript of 2017 03-21 ctp update and assessment
AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Update and Assessment
March 21, 2017
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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
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1. The expected increase in U.S. support to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen
prompted Iran to bolster support for the al Houthi movement.
2. The Libyan National Army’s advance into central and southern Libya will draw
opposing forces back into the ongoing contest for Libya’s resources.
3. Al Shabaab’s provision of humanitarian assistance to famine-stricken
populations extends its shadow governance and builds popular support.
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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA
Al Qaeda Network
Al Qaeda seeks to inspire Muslims to attack Americans by promoting its narrative that the
U.S. is intentionally killing Sunni civilians. A bulletin from al Qaeda’s al Sahab media
foundation called for such attacks during a condemnation of the March 16 U.S. airstrikes in
Aleppo, Syria, that allegedly killed dozens at a mosque.
Outlook: U.S. airstrikes will not degrade al Qaeda’s global operations in the long term.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda
associates
Pakistan reopened its border with Afghanistan to permit regular trade to flow, though the
security situation remains tense. Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan could
compromise U.S. lines of communication through Pakistan to Afghanistan.
Outlook: Pakistani militants will return to Pakistan after the current crackdown. The TTP will
not relocate to Afghanistan.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Political
A helicopter attack on a boat of Somali refugees off of Yemen’s western coast sparked
international outrage. Somalia blamed the Saudi-led coalition for the attack.
Outlook: The Saudi blockade on al Hudaydah port will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis.
Security
Iran may be increasing its military support to the al Houthi-Saleh faction to pre-empt
increased U.S. support to the Saudi-led coalition. Iran intensified arms shipments in recent
months. It has also supported the al Houthi-Saleh ballistic missile campaign and provided
explosively formed penetrators (EFPs).
Outlook:The al Houthi-Saleh missile campaign will reinforce Saudi opposition to a ceasefire.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
AQAP warned tribes in Hadramawt in eastern Yemen against supporting the U.S. or the
UAE and conducted two attacks against security forces in the area. AQAP resumed
operations in central Yemen after the U.S. conducted dozens of airstrikes on March 2-6.
Outlook: AQAP will escalate an attack campaign in Hadramawt governorate.
GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
1) 14 MAR: A reported U.S. airstrike targeted AQAP militants in Hadramawt.
2) 15 MAR: AQAP militants attacked Emirati-backed forces in Hadramawt.
3) 17 MAR: A Saudi-led coalition helicopter killed at least 40 Somali refugees near al Hudaydah port.
4) 20 MAR: Saudi air defense systems intercepted an al Houthi-Saleh ballistic missile over Jazan region.
5) 20 MAR: AQAP attacked al Houthi-Saleh forces in A’arfaf area, al Dhaleh.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Political
Relations between the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and the Gulf states are strained
after the SFG blamed the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen for an attack on a refugee
vessel in the Red Sea. The helicopter attack killed at least 42 Somalis.
Outlook: SFG-Gulf tensions may hamper investment and economic growth in Somalia.
Security
Turkey continues to exert influence in Somalia through humanitarian, infrastructure, and
military assistance. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit Mogadishu in April to
oversee the opening of a $50 million Turkish military base in the capital.
Outlook: Turkey will likely maintain a limited train, advise, and assist role in Somalia.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab’s provision of humanitarian assistance in central and southern Somalia may help
build popular support for the group or enable it to extend a form of shadow governance.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will divert aid distribution to Galgudud and Mudug regions in central
Somalia before expanding territorial control and governance in these regions.
GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
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1) 16 MAR: A
helicopter attack
killed 42 Somali
refugees aboard a
vessel in the Red
Sea.
2) 19 MAR: Al
Shabaab distributed
food aid to 230
families in El Bur
town, Galgudud
region.
3) 20 MAR: Al
Shabaab militants
attacked the Somali
Ministry of Defense
headquarters in
Mogadishu.
4) 21 MAR: Al
Shabaab detonated
a VBIED less than a
mile from the Somali
presidential palace.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Political
Tensions are rising between rival factions in Tripoli. A ceasefire brokered by the UN-backed
GNA decreased conflict but is unlikely to hold. A demonstration in favor of the Libyan
National Army (LNA) sparked backlash from rival factions against the GNA, which they
accused of permitting the protest. The GNA lacks sufficient forces to secure the capital.
Outlook: Clashes between rival groups may break out in western or central Libya.
Security
The LNA began an offensive to seize strategic sites from rival Misratan forces in
southwestern Libya. The LNA also recaptured Qanfouda district in Benghazi from an Islamist
militant coalition. Qanfouda was one of three remaining militant strongholds in the city.
Outlook: Militants will conduct explosive attacks to degrade security in LNA-held areas.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
ISIS seeks to rebuild its capabilities in northwestern Libya. A GNA-aligned militia imposed a
curfew in Sirte in response to the rumored movement of ISIS militants south of the city.
Outlook: ISIS may exploit inadequate security to re-establish a presence in Sirte.
WEST AFRICA LIBYA
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA
1) 15 MAR: Islamist
militias may have
clashed with the
LNA in the vicinity
of Hun, Jufra.
2) 17 MAR: Attackers
looted several GNA
ministries and the
National Anti-
Corruption
Commission in
Tripoli.
3) 17 MAR: Misratan
militias opened fire
during a pro-LNA
demonstration in
Tripoli.
4) 18 MAR: The LNA
recaptured the
Qanfouda district of
Benghazi from
Islamist militants.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the Maghreb
ISIS may activate attack networks in the Maghreb region. Militants attacked a police station
and killed one officer in Kebili, Tunisia, near AQIM and ISIS safe havens. Moroccan security
forces dismantled a fifteen-member ISIS-affiliated cell that planned attacks in Morocco.
Outlook: ISIS and AQIM militants will attack security targets in Tunisia’s interior regions.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)
AQIM and al Qaeda’s General Command praised the formation of Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa
al Muslimeen (JNIM), which united several Salafi-jihadi groups. JNIM seeks to challenge the
government in northern Mali. Retaliatory assassinations by rival militias indicate that the
peace accords in northern Mali are at risk.
Boko Haram-Barnawi, the faction of Boko Haram recognized by ISIS, is securing its food
supply in the midst of a famine in northern Nigeria. Likely Boko Haram-Barnawi militants
seized food and destroyed a police station in Magumeri, a town on a road that connects the
group’s safe zone to a regional capital.
Outlook: JNIM will attack security patrols to undermine the peace accords. Boko Haram-
Barnawi may attempt to secure popular support by seizing and delivering food aid.
WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB
1) 15-16 MAR:
Moroccan police
dismantled a fifteen-
member ISIS-
affiliated cell in
multiple cities
across Morocco.
2) 16 MAR: Algerian
forces killed two
suspected AQIM
militants in El Milia,
Jijel province.
3) 17 MAR: The
Algerian authorities
arrested nine
suspected ISIS
militants in
Mostaganem city,
Algeria.
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA
SAHEL
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SAHEL
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1) 15 MAR: Ansar al
Islam burned a
school in
Baraboule, Soum
Province, Burkina
Faso.
2) 15 MAR: Boko
Haram-Barnawi
attacked Magumeri,
Borno State,
Nigeria.
3) 18 MAR: A
Platforme coalition
affiliate killed a
CMA commander in
Kidal Region, Mali.
4) 19 MAR: Boko
Haram-Shekau
suicide bombers
killed four people in
Maiduguri, Borno
State, Nigeria.
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ACRONYMS
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB)
Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC)
Congress for Justice in Azawad (CJA)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Group for the Aid of Islam and the Muslims (JNIM)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
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Katherine Zimmerman
research manager
(202) 888-6576
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
(202) 888-6572
Heather Malacaria
program manager
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
(202) 888-6570
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
(202) 888-6569
