2016 USDA Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Agricultural Outlook … · 2020-06-16 · 2016 USDA Grains...
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2016 USDA Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Agricultural Outlook Forum 2016 Mark Simone Economic Policy and Analysis Staff Farm Service Agency, USDA February 26, 2016
Transcript of 2016 USDA Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Agricultural Outlook … · 2020-06-16 · 2016 USDA Grains...
2016 USDA Grains and Oilseeds OutlookAgricultural Outlook Forum 2016
Mark Simone Economic Policy and Analysis Staff Farm Service Agency, USDAFebruary 26, 2016
2016 Grains and Oilseeds Outlook
• November USDA Baseline • Argentina Election • February WASDE• An Increasingly Bearish Outlook
World Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Supplies Are Ample
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
World Supplies, Million Metric Tons
Wheat Corn Soybeans
Strong U.S. Dollar Continues to Hamper Exports
1.5
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2.5
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4
4.5Ja
n-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4Se
p-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15M
ar-1
5M
ay-1
5Ju
l-15
Sep-
15N
ov-1
5Ja
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Brazilian Reals Per U.S. $
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
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Jan-
14M
ar-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
l-14
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14N
ov-1
4Ja
n-15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-1
5Se
p-15
Nov
-15
Jan-
16
Canadian Dollars Per U.S. $
Weather is Yet to Be a Widespread Concern
• Current El Nino to Persist Through Spring• Global Crop Damage Has Been Limited• SE Asia, Sub Sahara Africa, Central America Affected• Global Price Effects Minimal
Soil Moisture is Favorable for Grains and Oilseeds
U.S. Prices at Multi-Year Lows
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
2006/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16
U.S. Farm Prices, $/bushel
Wheat Corn Soybeans
Wheat Drives 2016 U.S. Crop Plantings Lower
8 crops: wheat, rice, corn, soybeans, sorghum, barley, oats, and upland cotton
243.1
247.4
253.5
248.6
244.0
248.7
257.2255.7
257.4
254.4
248.9
235
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260
2006/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 2016/17
Planted Acreage: 8 Major U.S. Crops, Millions
Prevented Plantings is Always an Unknown
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2012 2013 2014 2015
FSA Prevented Plantings, Millions of Acres
U.S. Total Corn Wheat Soybeans
Food Grains Outlook
NASS Winter Wheat Acreage Down 7% from 2015
Reduced Production But Higher Exports Projected
400
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900
1,000
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2006/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 2016/17
U.S. Wheat Exports, Millions of Bushels
U.S. Wheat Stocks Move Closer to 1 Billion Bushels
3.00
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7.00
8.00
9.00
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2006/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 2016/17
U.S. Wheat Price and Stocks
Stocks Farm Price
Million Bu $/Bu
2016 U.S. Wheat Outlook
• Winter Wheat Down 2.9 mil acres• Area lowest since 1970 (48.7 mil)• Trend Yield Higher• Reduced Production• Exports Improve Modestly• Stocks Continue Building• Prices Lower for 4th Straight Year
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Million Acres
Area planted 56.8 54.6 51.0Area harvested 46.4 47.1 43.4
Yield (bu/ac) 43.7 43.6 45.9Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks
590 752 966
Production 2,026 2,052 1,991Imports 149 120 125Total Supply 2,766 2,924 3,082Food and Seed 1,037 1,033 1,043Feed &Residual
122 150 200
Exports 854 775 850
Total Use 2,014 1,958 2,093Ending Stocks 752 966 989
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)
5.99 5.00 4.20
2016 U.S. Rice Outlook
• Long Grain Area Gains in South• CA Increases Medium & Short Grain • Higher Production• Exports Increase-Long Grain• Stocks Remain Ample • Prices Unchanged
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Million Acres
Area planted 2.95 2.61 2.80Area harvested 2.93 2.58 2.77
Yield (lbs/acre) 7,576 7,470 7,633Million Hundredweight (cwt)
Beginning Stocks
31.8 48.5 41.9
Production 222.2 192.3 211.5Imports 24.7 24.0 24.5Total Supply 278.7 264.9 277.9Domestic & Residual
129.9 121.0 130.0
Exports 100. 3 102.0 107.0Total Use 230.2 223.0 237.0Ending Stocks 48.5 41.9 40.9
Avg. Farm Price ($/cwt)
13.40 12.90 12.90
Corn Outlook
2016/17 Corn Production Higher Despite Lower Yield
149.1 150.7153.3
164.4
152.6
146.8
123.1
158.1
171.0168.4 168.0
100
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2006/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 2016/17
U.S. Corn Yield, Bushels Per Acre
Greater Animal Numbers Drive Feed Use Higher
3.000
3.500
4.000
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5.000
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2006/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 2016/17
U.S. Corn Feed & Residual Use, Billion Bushels
Ethanol Margins Likely to Remain Under Pressure
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2007/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 2015/16
Ethanol Operating Margins ($/gallon), 2015/16 Through January 2016
Source: Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Iowa State University
U.S. Corn Faces Increasing Competition from S. America
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2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
U.S. and S. America Corn Exports, Millions of Tons
U.S. S. America Brazil
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks Projected At 12-Year High
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U.S. Corn Price and Stocks
Ending Stocks Farm Price
$/BuMillions Bu
2016 U.S. Corn Outlook
• Acreage Up 2%• Supplies Up 2%-Record Large • Domestic Usage Up Marginally• Exports Improve Modestly• Stocks Continue Building• Prices Lower for 4th Straight Year
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17Million Acres
Area planted 90.6 88.0 90.0Area harvested 83.1 80.7 82.3Yield (bu/ac) 171.0 168.4 168.0
Million BushelsBeginning Stocks
1,232 1,731 1,837
Production 14,216 13,601 13,825Imports 32 50 40Total Supply 15,479 15,382 15,702Feed &Residual
5,315 5,300 5,425
Food, Seed, & Industrial
6,568 6,595 6,600
Ethanol 5,209 5,225 5,225Exports 1,864 1,650 1,700Total Use 13,748 13,545 13,725Ending Stocks 1,731 1,837 1,977Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)
3.70 3.60 3.45
Soybeans and Products Outlook
2016/17 Production Would Be Third Largest
1.000
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2006/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 2016/17
U.S. Soybean Production, Billion Bushels
Soybean Stocks Declining in South America and Rising in U.S.
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60M
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Argentina + Brazil United States
…Boosts U.S. Soybean Export Prospects in 2016/17
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US Soybean Exports
Higher 2016/17 Soybean Oil Price Raises Crush Margin
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Soybean Crush Margin ($/bu)
Stocks Remain Burdensome
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U.S. Soybean Price and Stocks-to-Use
Stocks-to-Use
Farm Price
Percent $/Bu
2016 U.S. Soybean Outlook
• Acreage Down Marginally • Supplies Up 3% • Crush Up Modestly• Exports Increase• Stocks Slightly Lower• Prices Lower for 4th Straight Year
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Million Acres
Area planted 83.3 82.7 82.5
Area harvested 82.6 81.8 81.6
Yield (bu/ac) 47.5 48.0 46.7
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks
92 191 450
Production 3,927 3,930 3,810
Imports 33 30 30
Total Supply 4,052 4,150 4,289
Crush 1,873 1,880 1,900
Seed & Residual
145 131 125
Exports 1,843 1,690 1,825
Total Use 3,862 3,701 3,850
Ending Stocks 191 450 440
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)
10.10 8.80 8.50
2016 U.S. Soybean Meal Outlook
• Higher domestic demand • Exports Unchanged • Prices Fall to 10-year Low• Strong S. America Competition
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Thousand Short Tons Beginning Stocks
250 260 300
Production 45,062 44,415 45,100Imports 333 325 300Total Supply 45,645 45,000 45,700
Domestic Use 32,235 33,500 34,200Exports 13,150 11,200 11,200
Total Use 45,384 44,700 45,400Ending Stocks 260 300 300
Avg. Price($/short ton)
368.49 290.00 280.00
2016 U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook
• Domestic Use Up 2% • Primarily on Biodiesel • Stocks 3% Lower• Prices 2 cents higher
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Million Pounds Beginning Stocks
1,165 1,820 2,065
Production 21,399 21,845 21,985Imports 264 300 275Total Supply 22,828 23,965 24,325
Domestic Use 18,994 19,600 20,025Biodiesel 5,037 5,500 5,800
Food, Feed, Other Industrial
13,958 14,100 14,225
Exports 2,014 2,300 2,300
Total Use 21,008 21,900 22,325Ending Stocks 1,820 2,065 2,000
Avg. Price(cents/lb)
31.6 30.0 32.0
