2016- The Iran Upstream and Downstream...
Transcript of 2016- The Iran Upstream and Downstream...
Horizon Development GroupYour gateway to Iran
Slide 1Date 18/05/2016
2016- The Iran Upstream and Downstream
Opportunity
What is needed? When is it needed? How to be
successful in providing what is required.
Horizon Development GroupYour gateway to Iran Slide 2Date 18/05/2016
Horizon Development Group
Introduction
Horizon Development Group
Iran
IOID
XODUS IOID JVEU-Supply IOID
JV
SOPID 99.98% IOID
Karian Kish 98% IOID
Ofogh Energy (E&P)
MEPCOOfogh 2
Iraq
Ard Al MashriqGeneral Services
Limited
Mozambique
Horizon Development
Mozambique
Congo Gabon UK
Horizon Consulting
International Sales Offices
Canada
EnerserveInternational Inc.
USA
Business Support
Dubai
Malaysia
Hong Kong
33%
IOID AffiliateIOID Subsidiary
Horizon Development GroupYour gateway to Iran Slide 3Date 18/05/2016
Horizon Development Group
Iran Strategy
With the opening of the Iranian petroleum industry to foreign investment in 2016 our aims are to:
Grow our existing Iran service lines
Build new capabilities through joint venture partnerships with international equipment, goods and
service providers
Participate in field development and redevelopment projects in Iran as an equity investor with
reputable international oil companies on robust projects where we can
Improve the chance of project delivery to cost, quality and schedule targets through our understanding of Iran and how to build business momentum
Deliver on Iranian content targets and Iran’s technology transfer objectives
Horizon Development GroupYour gateway to Iran Slide 4Date 18/05/2016
What is needed
Iran’s 6th Five Year Plan
• Iran’s 6th five year plan
• Development of a resilient
economy
– 8% annual growth GDP
– Reform of state enterprises (60%
GDP) and banking sector
• Progress in science and
technology
• Promotion of cultural excellence
• Implications for the oil industry
• 3.7 MM bopd in 2014 rising to 4.6
MM bopd in 2020
– Oil exports to rise from 1.3 MM bopd
in 2015 to 2.4 MM bopd (implying a
decrease in Iranian oil consumption)
• 0.44 MM bcpd in 2014 rising to 1
MM bcpd in 2020 (Petrochem)
• Priority for shared fields
Horizon Development GroupYour gateway to Iran Slide 5Date 18/05/2016
NIOC Objectives
Conference Themes 28th and 29th November 2015
• Increase Iran production capacity and reserves in order to:
• Meet domestic energy demand
• Increase our leverage in OPEC and control of price
• Enter new export markets for power, energy and LNG
• Implement IOR and EOR projects (increase recovery)
• Reduce gas flaring and convert gas into higher value products- LNG and petrochem
• Increase efficiency of production (cost down through use of technology)
• Attract foreign investment
• Achieve 70% local content in capital expenditure
• Achieve 90 to 95% local content in operating expenditure
• Expand private sector participation in E&P but not with ownership of petroleum
• Utilise best available technologies and transfer these to Iran
Volume
objectives
Cost
objectives
Horizon Development GroupYour gateway to Iran Slide 6Date 18/05/2016
The Iran Opportunity- 2016
What is needed?
$5
$3
$2
$8
$15
7.7
0.5
Market $39.2 Billion per annum
NIOC Opex NIOC New wells NIOC Current Capex
NIOC Future Capex IPC Downstream
Buybacks
• Capital
• IOCs or EPCICF
• Upstream Technologies
• 3D seismic
• Reservoir, network and process modelling
• Smart wells
• Rotating equipment and control systems
• Environmental best practise- gas flaring reduction,
produced water handling, de-salting
• Brown field refurbishment and best practise M&O
• Programme and supply chain management
• Petrochemical Technologies
Current Market >
$ 10.5 billion per
annum
Big
da
ta
Horizon Development GroupYour gateway to Iran Slide 7Date 18/05/2016
The Iran Opportunity - 2016
When is it needed? When will it happen?
• Petrochem- Now
• NIOC capex & opex- when the banking
system allows
• Iran Petroleum Contracts- >2 years
• IPC Terms
• IOC and Iranian JV pre-qualification
• Tender
• IPC Negotiations, agreement on MDP, PEP etc.
• Iran oversight- NIOC BoD, Contracts Supervision
Committee, Central Bank
• Award
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??????
Horizon Development GroupYour gateway to Iran Slide 8Date 18/05/2016
Onshore Oil
25%
Offshore Oil
14%Onshore
Gas14%
Offshore Gas47%
28 bn boe
Onshore Oil Offshore Oil
Onshore Gas Offshore Gas
The Iran Opportunity- 2016
215 bn bbls STOIIP and 230 TCF GIIP
Green Field Gas99%
Brown Field Gas1%
17 bn boe gas
Green Field Gas Brown Field Gas
Green Field Oil
42%
Brown Field Oil
58%
11 bn bbls oil
Green Field Oil Brown Field Oil
Horizon Development GroupYour gateway to Iran Slide 9Date 18/05/2016
The Iran Opportunity- 2016
When will it happen?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
of
Oil
per
Day
Year
Iran Oil Production- Existing Fields, Shut in Wells, New Wells, Buybacks and IPC Oil Projects
8% annual decline Shut-in Wells 2016 wells 2017 wells 2018 wells
2019 wells 2020 wells 2021 wells 2022 wells 2023 wells
2024 wells Yadavaran phase 1 Yadavaran phase 2 Yadavaran phase 3 Azar phase 1
North Yaran South Yaran North Azadegan phase 1 North Azadegan phase 2 South Azadegan phase 1
South Azadegan phase 2 South Pars (oil layer) phase 1 Changuleh Darquain Phase 3- Fahliyan Golshan
Ferdowski Jufair Sephr Susangerd Sohrab
Arvand Ab-Teymur Ahwaz Bangestan Mansuri- Bangestan Foroozan
Sorosh Norooz Dorood Salman Aban
Payday West Paydar- Asmari West Paydar- Bangestan Dana Cheshmeh-Khosh
Dalpari Naft Shahr Sumar Deholoran
Existing wells- 8% decline
Buy back and IPC Projects
155 Infill wells and 155 replacement
wells per annum
Shut-in production
OperateExecuteNegotiate
Horizon Development GroupYour gateway to Iran Slide 10Date 18/05/2016
The Iran Opportunity-2016
How to be successful in providing what is required?
• Risks and Issues
• Banking System
• Sanctions
• Terms and NIOC capacity to negotiate
• ROI- South Pars 6-8 and Darquain Phase 2
were out of the money
• Getting your client to understand the
problem, the need and the solution
• Business momentum
• Vested interests
• Enablers to successful entry
• Capital
• Technology transfer
• Project and Supply Chain Management
• Environmental Issues
– Gas flaring and produced water disposal
• Local partner- >51% local content with a
PJSC & >95% during production operations
• Stakeholder Management
• Iran wants you!
Snap back Not and issueUN & EU
Compliance
UN, US & EU
Compliance
Exo
ge
no
us
Horizon Development GroupYour gateway to Iran Slide 11Date 18/05/2016
The Iran Opportunity-2016
Key barriers to entry
World Bank, 2016
0 50 100 150 200
Starting a Business
Construction Permits
Getting Electricity
Registering property
Getting Credit
Protecting Minority Investors
Paying Taxes
Trading Across Borders
Enforcing Contracts
Resolving Insolvency
Doing Business Ranking 118 of 183
2016 20152
Horizon Development GroupYour gateway to Iran Slide 12Date 18/05/2016
The Iran Opportunity- 2016
EU-Supply & IOID- Iran Complete Tender Management
How best can a foreign investor
working in Iran ensure they do
not contract with a sanctioned
individual or entity and so avoid
being fined by the US
government, UN or EU for
working with them?
“Check up on what you can
check up on, keep your records,
be able to make your case,”
said a former US sanctions
negotiator and that means using
Iran’s Complete Tender
Management (ICTM).https://eu.eu-supply.com/ictm/