2016 q4 gdp webinar with delaney and best
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Transcript of 2016 q4 gdp webinar with delaney and best
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The Latest Economic Trends Highlights from the 2016 GDP Estimate
January 27, 2017
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WAYNE BEST Chief Economist
Visa, Inc.
REP. JOHN DELANEY Maryland’s 6th District
U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee
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THE U.S. ECONOMY GREW 1.9 PERCENT IN 2016Q4
3
3.3%
2.7%
1.8%
-0.3%
-2.8%
2.5%
1.6%
2.2%
1.7%
2.4% 2.6%
1.6%
0.8%
1.4%
3.5%
1.9%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Real GDP Percent Change
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CONTRIBUTIONS TO GDP GROWTH
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2016 Q3 2016 Q4
Real GDP 3.5 1.9 Contribution to change in real GDP Personal consumption expenditures 2.03 1.7 Non-residential investment 0.18 0.30 Construction 0.3 -0.14 Equipment -0.26 0.18 IP products 0.13 0.26 Residential investment -0.16 0.37 Government 0.14 0.21 Net exports -0.85 -1.70
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CONSUMER SPENDING
5
3.5
3.0
2.2
-0.3
-1.6
1.9
2.3
1.5 1.5
2.9 3.2
2.7
1.6
4.3
3.0
2.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 Q1 2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Percent Change
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BUSINESS INVESTMENT GREW BY 2.4% IN Q4
6
7.0 7.1 5.9
-0.7
-15.6
2.5
7.7 9.0
3.5
6.0
2.1
-0.4
-3.4
1.0 1.4 2.4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 Q1 2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Real Business Fixed Investment Percent Change
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NON-RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT TRENDS
7
1.4
10.3
-4.4
-3.1
2013 2014 2015 2016
Construction Percent change
4.6
5.4
3.5
2013 2014 2015 2016
Equipment Percent change
3.4 3.9
4.8 5.0
2013 2014 2015 2016
IP Products Percent change
-2.8
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HOUSING ACTIVITY
8
6.6
-7.6
-18.8
-24.0
-21.2
-2.5
0.5
13.5 11.9
3.5
11.7
4.9
7.8
-7.7
-4.1
10.2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Real Residential Investment Percent Change
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EXPORTS
9
6.3
9.0 9.3
5.7
-8.8
11.9
6.9
3.4 3.5 4.3
0.1 0.4
-0.7
1.8
10.0
-4.3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 Q1 2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Exports Percent Change