160503 AUDIT QUALITY INDICATORS Audit Committee Alert 082016
2016 INVESTOR DAYs1.q4cdn.com/456119668/files/doc_presentations/2016/... · · 2016-12-082016...
Transcript of 2016 INVESTOR DAYs1.q4cdn.com/456119668/files/doc_presentations/2016/... · · 2016-12-082016...
2 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Forward-looking and non-IFRS statements
DRIVING VALUE THROUGH CUSTOMIZED SERVICE EXPERIENCE
Public communications, including oral or written communications such as this document, relating to Genworth MI Canada Inc. (the
“Company”, “Genworth Canada” or “MIC”) often contain certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements
include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the implementation of the changes introduced by the Government and the
potential impact on new insurance written, as well as the Company’s future operating and financial results, sales expectations
regarding premiums written, capital expenditure plans, dividend policy and the ability to execute on its future operating, investing and
financial strategies, the Canadian housing market, and other statements that are not historical facts. These forward-looking
statements may be identified by their use of words such as “may”, “would”, “could”, “will,” “intend”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “believe”,
“seek”, “propose”, “estimate”, “expect”, and similar expressions. These statements are based on the Company’s current
assumptions, including assumptions regarding economic, global, political, business, competitive, market and regulatory matters.
These forward-looking statements are inherently subject to significant risks, uncertainties and changes in circumstances, many of
which are beyond the ability of the Company to control or predict. The Company’s actual results may differ materially from those
expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including as a result of changes in the facts underlying the Company’s
assumptions, and the other risks described in the Company’s Annual Information Form dated March 16, 2016, its Short Form Base
Shelf Prospectus dated August 9, 2016, its most recently issued Management’s Discussion and Analysis and all documents
incorporated by reference in such documents. Management’s current views regarding the Company’s financial outlook are stated as
of the date hereof and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Other than as required by applicable laws, the Company
undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future
developments or otherwise.
To supplement its financial statements, the Company uses select non-IFRS financial measures. Such non-IFRS financial measures
include net operating income, operating earnings per common share (diluted), operating return on equity, insurance in-force, new
insurance written, loss ratio, delinquency ratio, investment yield, credit score, gross debt service ratio, ordinary dividend payout ratio,
and book value per Common Share (diluted) including accumulated other comprehensive income (“AOCI”). The Company believes
that these non-IFRS financial measures provide meaningful supplemental information regarding its performance and may be useful
to investors because they allow for greater transparency with respect to key metrics used by management in its financial and
operational decision making. Non-IFRS measures do not have standardized meanings and are unlikely to be comparable to any
similar measures presented by other companies. These measures are defined in the Company’s glossary, which is posted on the
Company’s website at http://investor.genworthmicanada.ca. A reconciliation from non-IFRS financial measures to the most readily
comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS, where applicable, can be found in the Company’s most recent
Management’s Discussion and Analysis, which is posted on the Company’s website and is also available at www.sedar.com.
3 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Agenda and key themes
Strategic outlook
Dynamic risk management
Financial strategy and insights
Question and answer session
Smarter M.I.
4 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Stuart Levings President and Chief Executive Officer
Strategic outlook
5 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
$3.0 billion* Market capitalization
92 million Shares outstanding
$6.6 billion Total assets
$3.6 billion Shareholders’ equity
Genworth Canada overview
WHO WE ARE
LARGEST private residential mortgage insurer in Canada
Helped ~1M+ families achieve homeownership
Supported 250+ Canadian lenders
WHAT WE DO1
1 2
4 3
Mortgage Application Mortgage Insurance Application and Premium
Mortgage Loan Insurance Contract
MARKET FACTS (Q3 2016)
• Mandatory for less than 20% down payment
• Covers 100% of loan, secured by property
• Upfront non-refundable premium
• Lender receives protection against loss from
mortgage default
• Capital relief for lenders
Homebuyer Mortgage lender (originates mortgage)
Mortgage insurer
Note: Company sources
1. Denotes transactional mortgage insurance. * As at December 2nd, 2016.
6 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Conservative first-time homebuyer profile
Greater Toronto
Single-detached residential median prices well below market….
Greater Vancouver Greater Calgary
$579k $778k
$585k
$1.4M
$442k
$466k
Greater Toronto Greater Vancouver Greater Calgary
$97k
$98k
$90k
$93k
$92k
$133k
….with similar household median incomes
Genworth Canada
Market
Genworth Canada
Market
Source: Genworth internal data, market data median price (CREA); market income (calculated using Stats Canada national income and regional population)
Note: % of multiple borrowers and % of borrowers buying condos based on transactional NIW data as at Q3 ’16 YTD.
Greater Toronto Greater Vancouver Greater Calgary
% of loans with
multiple
borrowers
70% 72% 70%
% of borrowers
buying condos 21% 31% 12%
7 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
2016 key accomplishments
DRIVING VALUE THROUGH MORTGAGE INSURANCE THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
Risk well-distributed;
portfolio re-balancing in
response to tougher
economic environment
High quality and diversified
insurance portfolio1
Portfolio insurance market
leader with approximately
50% market share in 2016
Strong financial
performance; 5% increase
in quarterly dividend
CREDIT SCORE
752
Note: Company sources. Portfolio insurance market share based on Q215-Q216.
1. Credit score references the Q3 2016 YTD timeframe.
2016 loss ratio trending
towards lower half of range
25% to 35% range
Proactive engagement
with regulator to influence
new capital framework
8 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Our environment today
Risk Assessment
Economic
Housing
Insurance
Portfolio
Regulatory
Key takeaways
GDP growth projection supportive in 2017 (Canada 2.0%;
US 2.1%)1
Oil prices stabilizing
Housing risk in Toronto and Vancouver remains elevated
Government changes contributing to soft landing
NIW quality & mix remains strong
Mortgage reg. changes to have positive long-term impact
on portfolio quality
Mortgage reg. changes impacting market size, but driving
safety and soundness
New capital framework driving higher capital requirements
Private MI PRMHIA limit increasing to $350 billion
STABLE TO IMPROVING MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
1. Source: GDP projections sourced from Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report October 2016.
9 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Regulatory changes
Portfolio insurance
‘Purpose Test’ rules Moderately lower net
premiums written in
the near term
Regulatory change Business implications Performance implications
Portfolio insurance
product restrictions
Mortgage rate stress test
New capital framework
Smaller portfolio
insurance market size;
opportunity for private
mortgage insurance
Improved portfolio
quality
Short-term reduction
in transactional
market size
Premium rate
increases required to
address higher capital
Reduced loss ratio
volatility due to
higher premium rates
Risk sharing proposal
Targeting pricing
ROE of ~13%
10 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
4% 7%
5%
17%
66%
Impact of rate ‘stress test’
Q3 YTD transactional NIW1 GDS & TDS breach drill-down2
BORROWER BEHAVIOUR EXPECTED TO EVOLVE….REDUCING THE IMPACT
OF CHANGES TO 15%-25% OF 2017 TRANSACTIONAL NEW INSURANCE WRITTEN
Eligible NIW (within debt servicing limits)
Ineligible products TDS > 44% limit
Within 200 bps of limit
Large proportion impacted by TDS breach only,
which is within borrowers’ control to change
>200 above limit
Borrowers within 200 bps of GDS breach
can reduce target house price by ~10%
and qualify to make a purchase
Both GDS and TDS breach
GDS > 39% limit
1. Product exclusions include: refinances, rentals, credit score <600, property value >$1MM excluded. 2. GDS/TDS re-calculated to determine eligibility under 4.64% interest rate
50%
50%
11 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Market evolution
STRONG DESIRE FOR HOMEOWNERSHIP DRIVES MARKET RECOVERY
Data Sources: CREA; all data is monthly and as at Q3’16.
Existing Canadian home sales (Monthly, number of transactions)
Represents
regulatory
changes to
mortgage
insurance
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
Average
• 2015: minimum down payment requirements
increased for homes >$500,000
• 2016: new qualifying rate requirements and
product restrictions in portfolio insurance
Recent mortgage rule changes
• Six rounds of housing rule changes
since 2008
• Housing activity typically rebounds
within 6-12 months of change
• House price appreciation should return
to more sustainable levels in 2017
12 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Maintain strong capital
and profitability
Prudent growth focus
Risk management
discipline
Strategic priorities
RESOURCES ALIGNED TO ADDRESS DYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT AND CAPITALIZE ON NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Key outcomes
Modest market
share accretion
High quality,
diversified
portfolio
Capitalize on
new
opportunities
Appropriately
priced risk
Strategic priorities Key risks
Economic
Insurance Portfolio
Regulatory
Housing
Influence
government
policy
13 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Strategic execution
BUILDING ON SOLID BUSINESS FUNDAMENTALS
1
Invest in
process
innovation to
drive prudent
market share
expansion
4
Leverage
government
relations
strategy to
influence
regulatory
environment
3
Maintain
risk management
and expense
discipline
2
Drive pricing
strategy for
appropriate
premium rates
and timing of
implementation
5
Explore private
mortgage
insurance
strategy to
differentiate
MIC’s offerings
14 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
MIC investment thesis
How we measure success
Market
share
High quality,
diversified
portfolio
EPS, ROE
and BVPS
growth
Strong
employee
engagement
Potential for top-line
growth through market
size recovery, share
growth, and premium rate
increases
Seasoned risk
management
experience and high
quality portfolio
ROE
improvement
and emerging
business
opportunities
PROVEN BUSINESS MODEL AND DEEP MORTGAGE INSURANCE EXPERTISE
Sound product design
and strong regulatory
environment
15 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Craig Sweeney Senior Vice President and Chief Risk Officer
Dynamic risk
management
16 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Insurance risk framework
• Portfolio analytics
• Identification of emerging loss
trends
• Dynamic underwriting guidelines
• Proactive loss mitigation
Portfolio risk
management
• Underwriting fundamentals
• Risk limits and triggers
• Proprietary mortgage scoring
model
• Robust quality assurance
Manage the quality
of new business
RISK PILLARS
• Macro-economic environment
• Housing market trends
• Regional risk factors
Identify & assess
key risks
Strong
regulatory
framework
• Defined underwriting best practices (OSFI’s B20 / B21 guidelines support
safety and soundness)
• Borrower recourse
• Efficient and effective mortgage foreclosure process
• Risk-sensitive capital framework
REGULATORY & LEGAL FRAMEWORK
17 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Drivers of losses on claims
UNEMPLOYMENT & PORTFOLIO QUALITY
DRIVE PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT
Mortgage arrears and
unemployment rate
2. Portfolio quality
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
Mortgage Arrears
UE Rate (R)
Strong correlation
1. Unemployment 3. House prices
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
MIC Market
Median house price appreciation
(‘$000s)
PRICE APPRECIATION & EFFECTIVE LTV
DRIVE LOSS GIVEN DEFAULT
49% 48%
64%
68%
72%
76%
81%
86%
91%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Port
folio
<=
2009
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Q3'1
6 Y
TD
Bulk
Transactional
O/S
Insured
Mortgage
Balances
($B)
$101 $19 $8 $9 $12 $14 $19 $8 $9 $18 $24 $16 $102
Effective LTV ($223B outstanding insured mortgage balance, national,
as at September 30, 2016)
Sources: (UE Rate) Statistics Canada, (Mortgage arrears) Canadian Bankers Association, (Eff LTV) Company sources; (Median price) CREA
All data as at Q3’16 except mortgage arrears (Q2’16).
Book year
18 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
100
120
140
160
180
200
38
40
42
44
46
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 F
Affordability (L)
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 F
GDP growth expected to improve in 2017.
Unemployment rate expected to be relatively
stable
Canadian environment
Flat to modest house price depreciation
expected in 2017
STABLE TO IMPROVING MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
GDP Growth (L)
UE Rate (R) Average
Teranet Index (R)
Economic Indicators Housing Affordability1 (Aggregate)
Data sources: GDP & Unemployment Rate (Statistics Canada); Teranet Index (Teranet); Affordability (RBC Economics); 2017 forecast as per management discretion.
1 . Affordability measures the proportion of median pre-tax household income needed to service mortgage payments (P+I), property taxes and utilities. Aggregate refers to all property types.
19 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Regional risk assessment
Note: Based on Company’s estimates of housing and economic risk.
Improving economic
forecast for Alberta
and Prairies regions
Elevated
housing risk in
GTA
Balanced risk profile
in Quebec and
Ontario
Ho
us
ing
ris
k
Economic risk Low High
High
GTA
GVA
Quebec
Alberta
Atlantic
Ontario
(ex GTA)
Prairies
Key Indicators
Overvaluation
Affordability
Price-to-
income
Supply/
demand
Key Metrics: GDP Forecast; UE Rate; Economic diversity
Pacific
(ex GVA)
Denotes 2017
expectations
20 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Portfolio Insurance
Outstanding insured mortgage balances
EMBEDDED EQUITY REDUCES OVERALL RISK IN PORTFOLIO
Transactional Insurance
Outstanding insured mortgage balance
$121B (effective LTV by loan bucket, % of transactional business)
Outstanding insured mortgage balance
$102B (effective LTV by loan bucket, % of portfolio business)
Note: based on Company’s estimate of outstanding balance of insured mortgages as at September 30, 2016 of $223B.
21%
12%
13%
54%
> 90% 85.01-90% 80.01-85% <= 80%
7%
12%
12%
69%
> 75% 70.01-75% 65.01-70% <= 65%
21 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Strong portfolio quality – credit score
PORTFOLIO QUALITY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED COMPARED TO ‘07/08
Note: Company sources for transactional new insurance written.
Canada Greater Vancouver Area
16%
3% 716
752
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Q3'1
6 Y
TD
% Score <660 (R) Avg score (L)
Greater Toronto Area
16%
2% 714
759
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Q3'1
6Y
TD
% Score <660 (R) Avg score (L)
13%
2% 719
756
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Q3
'16
YT
D
% Score <660 (R) Avg score (L)
22 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Limiting stacked risk factors
DYNAMIC RESPONSE TO INCREASED ECONOMIC AND HOUSING RISK IN 2016
67%
26%
4%
2%
>90-95 >85-90 >80-85 >75-80 <=75
95 LTV – credit score
3% 4% 7%
24%
35%
26%
<=660 <=680 <=700 <=740 <=780 780+
29%
34%
21%
16%
>40 >35-40 >30-35 <=30%
95 LTV – TDSR
Stacked risks (% of NIW)
Halifax Montreal Ottawa Toronto Calgary Vancouver National
2016 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4%
2015 0.8% 0.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0%
LTV mix - transactional
Note: Company sources.
2016 stacked risks based on Oct‘15 to Sep‘16 New Insurance Written (NIW), purchase only, excludes Alt-A. 2015 stacked risks based on July ‘14 to June ‘15 New Insurance Written (NIW), purchase only deal, excludes Alt-A.
Stacked Risk = >90% LTV and <= 660 score and >40 total debt service ratio (TDSR).
23 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Early term delinquency trend
Note: Company sources as at Q3’16; MI (transactional) data only. 1. *Represents loans that go into delinquency status within the first 12 months.
12-month Delinquency Rate (DR) Trend1
RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES DRIVE BETTER PORTFOLIO QUALITY
• Measure of underwriting quality and
potential borrower misrepresentation
• B20/B21 guidelines support strong
underwriting discipline
• Key MIC risk processes and controls;
• Lender underwriting quality assurance
• Industry information sharing
• Collateral model tests for inflated values 0.00%
0.02%
0.04%
0.06%
0.08%
0.10%
0.12%
0.14%
0.16%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
'16 Y
TD
12-Month DR
24 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Proactive risk management
GEOGRAPHICALLY DIVERSIFIED … ALBERTA EXPOSURE REDUCED TO 17%
Note: Company sources.
1. NIW represents new insurance written.
2. Pacific includes BC and Territories.
Regional Highlights
Increased focus on appraisals
and quality of real estate in
Greater Vancouver Area
38% 37% 39% 42%
25% 27% 23% 17%
14% 12% 12% 13%
10% 12% 13% 14%
13% 13% 12% 13%
2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD
Ontario Alberta Quebec Pacific Other
Regional NIW1 dispersion (Transactional)2
Underwriting actions resulting
in smaller but better quality
Alberta portfolio in 2016
Strong economic conditions in
Ontario. Key growth region in
2016 & 2017
25 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Highlights
Alberta: improving portfolio quality
ALBERTA PORTFOLIO QUALITY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED COMPARED TO ‘07/08
Credit score Gross debt service ratio (%)
17%
2% 713
754
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Q3'1
6 Y
TD
% Score <660 (R) Avg score (L)
Steady credit score
improvement year-
over-year
Stable home
prices for First Time
Homebuyer
Relatively stable
GDS from Alberta
borrowers
Note: Company sources for transactional new insurance written.
Median home price (In ‘$000s)
$3
03
$3
15
$3
00
$3
19
$3
20
$3
28
$3
38
$3
55
$3
60
$3
54
$270
$280
$290
$300
$310
$320
$330
$340
$350
$360
$370
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Q3'1
6 Y
TD
25
%
25
%
24
%
25
%
25
%
24
%
24
%
25
%
25
%
25
%
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Q3'1
6 Y
TD
26 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
0 3 6 9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
93
96
99
102
105
108
111
114
117
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Book year delinquency development
2007/08 books experienced
significant economic and
housing stress
Note: delinquency rate based on original insurance in-force.
2011-14 books benefitting
from strong portfolio quality
and more stable economic
environment
Positive seasoning trends
27 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Delinquency performance
1,177 1,415
1,232 1,047
735 619 517 396 385 383 349 331
108
240 388
493
481
344 296
270 181 187 166 163
165
484 862 1,048
722
437
284
222 303 424 467 617
413
561
645 552
554
515
482 569 624
656 578 504
183
240
254 261
260
238
251 299 336
384 401 412
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16
Number of reported delinquencies
Loss
Ratio2 19% 31% 42% 33% 37% 33% 25% 20% 21% 24% 21% 25%
3,381 3,401
2,752
2,153
1,830 1,756 1,829
2,940
2,046
Ontario
BC Alberta
Quebec
Other
Sep. 30, 2016
delinquency
rate1
0.34%
0.34%
0.40%
0.14%
0.08%
Note: Company sources.
1. Based on outstanding insured mortgages as at Sep. 30, 2016.
2. Loss ratio in 2009 excludes the impact of the change to the premium recognition curve in the first quarter of 2009.
2,034
0.21% Total
8%
61%
23%
8%
Portfolio insurance
Core transactionalproducts
Refinance >80%LTV
100% LTV
Products
Eliminated
2010 delinquency
mix by
product
Elimination of higher risk products
1,961 2,027
28 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
20
06
2007
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Q3 Y
TD
2016
Canada loss ratio - MIC (RS) Canada DR-CBA Alberta DR-CBA
2017 annual loss ratio expectations
MIC loss ratio & CBA delinquency rates
PRELIMINARY 2017 ANNUAL LOSS RATIO RANGE: 25% TO 35%
Preliminary
2017 Loss
Ratio Range
• WTI price-per-barrel in the
$40-60 US range
• Canadian dollar remains
stable in the 70-80 cent range
• Modest increase in mortgage
interest rates
2017 assumptions
UE Rate House
Prices
Alberta ~8.1% (4.0%)
National ~7.2% (2.0%)
Note: 2017 assumptions based on Company estimates; denote exit rates.
Data Sources: Canadian Bankers Association, Company sources; all data as at Q3’16 except CBA delinquency rates (Q2’16)
2009 excludes the impact of the change to the premium recognition curve in Q1’09
29 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Key takeaways
Prudent risk management
Underwriting actions reducing
risk
Well positioned to address
regional economic pressures
2017 annual loss ratio range:
25% to 35%
Strong portfolio quality
30 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Philip Mayers Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Financial strategy and
insights
31 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
$1,9
71
$1,9
02
$1,8
24
$1,7
85
$1,7
24
$1,7
99
$2,0
21
$2,1
36
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
Q3'1
6
$2
2.4
0
$2
4.4
4
$2
6.9
4
$3
0.6
2
$3
2.5
3
$3
5.0
2
$3
6.8
2
$3
9.0
1
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
Q3'1
6
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
Creating shareholder value
Operating earnings per share (C$, diluted)
Book value per share (C$, including AOCI, diluted)
Unearned premiums reserve (C$ millions)
EPS (net of dividends)2
Ordinary dividends paid
Buybacks & special dividends
(C$ millions)
EMBEDDED PROFITS IN $2.1 BILLION UNEARNED PREMIUMS
RESERVE DRIVING ONGOING PROFITABILITY
$2.6
7
$3.0
2
$3.0
8
$3.4
3
$3.6
0
$3.8
6
$4.0
5
$3.0
9
Total
EPS
9% CAGR
Unearned premiums growth driven
by strong recent top-line
Seven consecutive
years of EPS growth
7% CAGR1
1. EPS CAGR represents compounded annual growth rate from 2009 to 2015. 2. 2013 operating EPS excludes the impact of the government guarantee exit fee reversal. Reported operating EPS (diluted) in 2012 was $4.67. 2009 operating EPS excludes the impact of the change to the premiums earned recognition curve. Reported operating EPS (diluted) in 2009 was $3.01.
0 325 209 0 0 105 116 50
3Q
YTD
32 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Strong balance sheet
($ millions) Sept. 30,
2016
Dec. 31,
2015
Assets
Cash and investments $ 6,248 $ 5,917
Other assets 338 322
Total assets $ 6,586 $ 6,239
Liabilities
Loss reserves 161 132
Unearned premiums 2,136 2,021
Long-term debt 433 433
Other liabilities 233 233
Total liabilities 2,963 2,819
Shareholders’ equity
(incl. AOCI) 3,623 3,420
Total liabilities and
shareholders’ equity $ 6,586 $ 6,239
Strong capital position to support transition
to new capital framework
$2.1 billion of unearned premiums could
include significant embedded profits
Translates to over $7 of unrecognized
book value per share
High quality investment portfolio ~95%
investment grade fixed income
Note: Amounts may not total due to rounding.
STRONG FINANCIAL FOUNDATION….SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED FUTURE PROFITS
Unearned premiums* $2.1 B
Future losses & expenses (1.2)
Future pre-tax income 0.9
Future net income contribution $0.7 B
*Assumes future combined ratio of 55%
33 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
2014 and prior years
2014 and prior years
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016 2017 illustrationfrom premiums
earned
526 483 447
555
703
470
19 77 65
85
106
118
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTDQ3
2016
Premiums earned growth
PREMIUMS EARNED EXPECTED TO GROW MODESTLY IN 2017….
.... AFTER Q3‘16 YTD INCREASE OF 9% YEAR-OVER-YEAR
Premiums written (C$, millions, by type of business) Earnings curve
Premiums earned (Contribution by book year)1
Transactional
Portfolio
545 560 512
640
809
588
Years
3Q
YTD
Increasing
Decreasing
Q4/16
and 2017
premiums
written1
Run-off of unearned premiums reserve
will drive 2017 premiums earned
Q4/16 premiums
written1
2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Note: Earnings curve assumes no material change in the curve with respect to above depiction. 1 Estimates of Q4/16 and 2017 premiums written are for illustrative purposes only and are not to scale.
34 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
32%
16%
35%
6%
6%
5%
Federals
Provincials
Preferred shares
Emerging markets debt3
Investment grade
corporates2
Cash & short term
investments
High quality investments
Duration: 3.8 years
Book yield: 3.2%1
Invested assets (C$ millions, unless noted)
Note: Company sources.
1. Book yield represents pre-tax equivalent book yield after dividend gross-up of portfolio (as at September 30, 2016).
2. Market value, includes CLOs
Total invested assets (Market value of $6.2 billion) Industry / Sector concentration
$5,917
$5,867
MAINTAINING QUALITY FOCUS IN LOW RATE ENVIRONMENT
$104 million of
maturities in
Q4 2016 and a
further $471M
in 2017
5,641 5,940
276 305
Q4 2015 Q3 2016
Book value
Net
unrealized
gain
$5.9B $6.2B
Corporate bonds & emerging market debt
(41% of portfolio)
Preferred shares (6% of portfolio)
58% 24%
15%
3%
41%
40%
9%
5%
Pipelines
& Distribution
Energy
Financials
Industrials,
Utilities & Other
4%
Infrastructure
Pipelines
& Distribution
Energy
Financials
Industrials,
Utilities & Other
35 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Investments generate steady income stream
AUM (C$B) 4.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.2
Pre-tax book
yield1 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2%
After-tax book
yield 2.4% 2.4%
Historical performance
Investment priorities
Based on forward curve
at Dec. 1, 2016
Current
book
yield1
Current
duration
Sept. 30/16
(years)
1-year
forward
rates2
Cash & short-term 0.51% 0.1 0.50%
Federal agency bonds3 2.10% 3.8 2.05%
Provincial gov’t bonds 3.50% 4.8 2.00%
Corporate bonds (Single A) 3.30% 3.5 2.05%
Emerging market debt 3.69% 5.5 3.60%
Preferred shares 6.70% 4.9 6.70%
Total 3.20% 3.8
Interest &
dividend income
Net gains
• Targeting book yield around 3.2% with duration around 3.8 years
• Rate reset preferred shares offer higher yields and negative correlation to rising interest rates
• Hedging a portion of interest rate risk using fixed-for-floating swaps (approx. 45% currently hedged)
$171 $169 $179 $173
$169
$130
$7 $12
$37 $22 $32
-$9
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1. Pre-tax equivalent yield including gross-up of dividend income. 2. As at December 1, 2016. 3. Federal government bonds constitute government agency bonds and NHA MBS.
Yield and duration (by asset class)
3Q
YTD
36 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Overview of new capital framework
• Unearned Premiums
Reserve
• Reserve for Incurred But
Not Reported Losses on
Claims
Premium Liabilities
Triggered When Price to
Income Metric Exceeds OSFI
Prescribed Threshold:
• Toronto
• Vancouver
• Calgary
• Edmonton
• Victoria
Supplementary Requirement
More Risk Sensitive Based
on:
• Outstanding Balance
• Modified LTV (outstanding
balance / original property
value)
• Remaining Amortization
• Credit Score
Base Requirement
Total Assets Required =
= Capital Required for Insurance Risk
CREATES APPROPRIATE PRICING INCENTIVE .... FOR EXAMPLE,
HIGHER PREMIUM RATE REDUCES CAPITAL REQUIREMENT
+ -
37 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
New capital framework LTV illustration
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
To
tal A
sset
Req
uir
em
en
t at
Ori
gin
ati
on
• Premium rate increases likely in 2017 in response to higher capital levels from proposed base and
supplementary requirement
Table above based on Sept. 23rd, 2016 OSFI draft advisory entitled “Capital Requirements for Federally Regulated Mortgage Insurers”.
* New Base Requirement and New Combined Base & Supplementary Requirement are shown at 150% MCT.
** Current Required Capital for insurance risk is calculated at 220% MCT.
Highlights
Draft framework increase in required assets (mix
of price increase and increased capital)
Gross Written Premium / unearned premiums reserve at origination New Base Requirement at 150% MCT* (Current Economic Environment)
Supplementary Requirement at 150% MCT* (Select Housing Markets) Current Required Capital for Insurance Risk under 2016 MCT**
Basic Loan-to-Value at Origination
(Current MCT
guideline)
Total Asset Requirement by LTV (new vs. current framework, by LTV) at origination (730 credit score at issue; $300k mortgage)
65 75 80 85 90 95
38 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1
13
25
37
49
61
73
85
97
10
9
12
1
New framework – Runoff by LTV
Modified LTV as loan ages (730 credit score at issue; $300k mortgage)
• Total asset requirement is very sensitive to modified LTV and diminishes over 5-8 years as modified LTV
approaches 55% to 60%
Highlights
Total asset requirement run-off1 (730 credit score, $300k mortgage)
To
tal a
sset re
qu
ire
me
nt
Months
95% LTV
65%
LTV
90% LTV
85% LTV
80% LTV
75%
LTV
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
1
13
25
37
49
61
73
85
97
10
9
12
1
13
3
14
5
15
7
16
9
18
1
19
3
20
5
21
7
22
9
24
1
25
3
Months
65%
LTV
75% LTV
80% LTV
85% LTV
90% LTV
95% LTV
0
0
55% level
Annual
prepayments 1%
Full repayments
Year 1 0%
Year 2 4%
Year 3 8%
Year 4 10%
Year 5 and after 12%
Prepayment / full
repayment
assumptions
Charts above based on Sept. 23rd, 2016 OSFI draft advisory entitled “Capital Requirements for Federally Regulated Mortgage Insurers”.
1. New Base Requirement 150% MCT.
39 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1
13
25
37
49
61
73
85
97
10
9
12
1
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1
13
25
37
49
61
73
85
97
10
9
12
1
New framework – credit score impact
<=600 600 to619
620 to639
640 to659
660 to679
680 to699
700 to719
720 to739
740 to759
760 to779
>=780
Tota
l R
equirem
ent
at Is
sue
Credit Score at Issue
% of YTD ‘16
transactional
business2
1 0 1 1 2 3 4 6 9 13 59
Credit score multiplier for total asset
requirement
New base requirement
CREDIT SCORE MULTIPLIER DRIVES MATERIALLY HIGHER CAPITAL
AS SCORES DECREASE….STRONG CREDIT SCORE IS BENEFICIAL
Total asset requirement run-off1 by
credit score ($300k mortgage)
690 credit
score
690 credit
score
730 credit
score
730 credit
score
770 credit score
770 credit
score T
ota
l a
sse
t re
qu
ire
me
nt
Months
4.6x
3.2x
2.8x
2.5x
2.1x
1.7x
1.4x
1.0x 0.9x
0.7x 0.6x
Multiplier to
730 credit
score
To
tal a
sset re
qu
ire
me
nt
Months 0
0
80% basic LTV
95% basic LTV Based on highest credit score for
multiple borrowers
Charts above based on Sept. 23rd, 2016 OSFI draft advisory entitled “Capital Requirements for Federally Regulated Mortgage Insurers”.
1. New Base Requirement 150% MCT.
2. Credit Score: As at Sept16. Credit Score bucket based on highest Trans Union Credit Score for all borrowers on the file at time of application.
40 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Today FutureToday Future
New framework – pricing implications
Transactional insurance new business (% of loan)
EXPECT 10-15%+ AVERAGE
TRANSACTIONAL INSURANCE
PRICE INCREASE IN 2017
Portfolio insurance new business (% of loan)
EXPECT 2X OR HIGHER
PORTFOLIO INSURANCE
PRICE INCREASE IN 2017
Charts above based on Sept. 23rd, 2016 OSFI draft advisory entitled “Capital Requirements for Federally Regulated Mortgage Insurers”.
1. IBNR is Incurred But Not Required Reserve
Current
framework
New
framework
Capital
Premium
Capital
Premium
Capital Required
for Insurance
Risk = Total
Asset
Requirement less
Unearned
Premiums and
IBNR1
Current
framework
New
framework Target Pricing
ROE of ~13%
41 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
New framework MCT implications
• 220% holding target being recalibrated to 150% supervisory target
• Preliminary new internal target of 155% - 157% represents $125 - $175 million above supervisory minimum
MCT Framework (%)
Current framework New
framework
Holding target 220%
Gov’t guarantee minimum /
supervisory target 175% 150%1
Internal target 185% 155% - 157% (preliminary)
Operating range 225%+ 160%+
Dollar value per point of MCT ~$15 million ~$25 million
Highlights
1. Company expectations for government guarantee minimum.
42 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Sept 30 2016 Actual Sep 30 2016Pro-forma
2017 illustration
New framework Pro-forma MCT In
su
ran
ce
ris
k
Holding target Supervisory target & expected government guarantee minimum
220% 150%
Excess above target
Operational risk
Market risk
Legacy transactional
<= 25 yr. amortization
& other insurance
risk
Legacy portfolio &
transactional
extended
amortization
2017 books
236% 160%+ 155-158%
Capped at 2016
level
Immediate
transition to
new framework
Insu
ran
ce ris
k
MCT New Framework (C$, millions)
• Targeting operating with MCT above 160% in 2017
• Transitional provisions cap capital requirements for legacy portfolio insurance & extended amortization
business at Dec. 31, 2016 level (220% MCT)
• Lower capital requirements for market and operational risk due to reduction in internal target
Highlights
43 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Capital management strategy
Funding organic growth
with MCT > 157%
Capital priorities
Maintaining modest
leverage of <= 15%
Capital strength
At Q3 2016:
• Pro-forma MCT of 155%-158%
• 11% debt-to-capital
Holding company cash and
liquid investments > $100 MM
Credit facility of $100 MM
Capital flexibility
At Q3 2016:
• Holdco cash and liquid investments of $181
million
• $100 MM undrawn credit facility
Sustainable
ordinary dividend
Return of capital when
excess capital available
Capital efficiency
At Q3 2016:
• Increased ordinary dividend by 5%
• Payout ratio of 41%
44 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
ROE drivers
ROE drivers
2016 ROE ~11%
Year
New capital framework
for legacy books
Impact of price increases Interest rate outlook Capital management
initiatives
2017 Neutral
2018
2019
TARGETING 12%+ ROE IN THE MEDIUM TERM
-
+
+ +
+ + +
+ +
+ +
- - -
- -
45 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Key takeaways
Proven business model has positioned
MIC for future financial performance
Smaller MI market size could lead to
moderate decline in premiums written in 2017,
despite expected higher premium rates
Managing capital to greater than 160% MCT
under new framework
Premiums earned expected to modestly
increase in 2017 due to large recent books
of business
Estimated 25% to 35% loss ratio range
for 2017
Investment income expected to be
relatively flat in 2017
46 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Stuart Levings President and Chief Executive Officer
Wrap up
47 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2016 Investor Day
Key takeaways
Solid business model
Strong regulatory environment
Disciplined risk management
MIC is well-positioned
for future
success
Robust profitability drivers
M.I. thought leadership
49 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2015 Investor Day
Senior management team
Stuart Levings, President & CEO
15+ years of mortgage insurance experience
Mr. Levings assumed his current role as President and Chief Executive Officer in January
2015. Prior to that Mr. Levings served in such senior leadership positions as Senior Vice
President, Chief Operating Officer, Senior Vice President, Chief Operations Officer and
Senior Vice President, Chief Risk Officer. Mr. Levings joined the Company in July 2000 as
the Financial Controller, and has also held positions in finance and product development,
including five years as Chief Financial Officer. Before that, Mr. Levings spent seven years
with Deloitte & Touche. Mr. Levings holds a CPA, CA professional designation with over
15 years of professional experience in a variety of industry sectors. Mr. Levings holds a
Bachelor of Accounting Science degree from the University of South Africa and is a
member of both the South African and Canadian Institutes of Chartered Accountants.
Philip Mayers, SVP & Chief Financial Officer
25+ years of mortgage insurance experience
Mr. Mayers became Chief Financial Officer of the Company in 2009. He has over 25
years of finance and general management experience in financial services businesses.
Since joining the Company in 1995, Mr. Mayers has held several senior positions,
including Vice President, Finance, Vice President, Operations, and Senior Vice President,
Business Development. Prior to joining the Company, he held finance positions with
Mortgage Insurance Company of Canada (“MICC”), Esso Petroleum Canada and Deloitte
& Touche. He holds CPA, CA and CMA professional designations and has a Master of
Accounting degree from the University of Waterloo.
50 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2015 Investor Day
Senior management team
Craig Sweeney, SVP & Chief Risk Officer
15+ years of mortgage insurance experience
Mr. Sweeney has more than 18 years of professional experience in the mortgage and
banking industry. Since joining the Company in 1998, Mr. Sweeney has held senior
positions in Operations and Business Development, including Director of Risk Operations
and Director of Product Development. Mr. Sweeney received an honours Bachelor of Arts
degree in Economics from Carleton University in 1994.
Winsor Macdonell, SVP, General Counsel & Secretary
15+ years of mortgage insurance experience
Mr. Macdonell is responsible for all of the Company’s legal and compliance matters, as
well as government relations. Mr. Macdonell joined the Company in 1999. He was called
to the Bar in Ontario in 1994. Prior to joining the Company, he spent three years in the life
and property and casualty industry, and prior to that was in private practice. Mr.
Macdonell received an honours Bachelor of Commerce degree from Queens University in
1988 and his LL.B. from Dalhousie University in 1992 and his ICD.D in 2014.
51 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2015 Investor Day
Senior management team
Debbie McPherson, SVP, Sales and Marketing
25+ years of mortgage insurance experience
Ms. McPherson has over 25 years of experience and success in sales and quality
management with the Company. Prior to her current position, Ms. McPherson was the
Company’s Ontario Regional Sales Director. Ms. McPherson plays an active role in many
industry organizations, including the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage
Professionals, the Canadian Homebuilders Association and the Canadian Real Estate
Association. Ms. McPherson graduated from the University of Toronto with a Bachelor of
Arts degree.
Scott Gorman, SVP, Operations
15+ years of experience
Mr. Gorman has more than 19 years of International Industry and Consulting experience
within the Financial Services Industry. Prior to joining Genworth Canada, Mr. Gorman
worked for TD Financial Group as VP, Head of Card Operations & Initiatives, and Royal
Sun Alliance (RSA) as the Regional Chief Operating Officer for their Asia and Middle East
Region as well as VP of RSA’s Canadian National Operations. Mr. Gorman has a
Bachelor’s of Commerce from Memorial University of Newfoundland and an MBA from
Schulich School of Business, York University.
52 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2015 Investor Day
Senior management team
Mary-Jo Hewat, SVP, Human Resources and Facilities
20+ years experience
Ms. Hewat brings over 20 years of human resources expertise spanning numerous
industries and geographies. Ms. Hewat assumed her current role of Senior Vice President,
Human Resources and Facilities in May, 2016. Prior to joining Genworth Canada, she was
Senior Vice President, HR Business Partnerships at Ontario Municipal Employees
Retirement System (OMERS) as well as Vice President, Human Resources. Her career
has also included senior HR roles with Sherritt and Hudson’s Bay. Ms. Hewat has a
Bachelor of Commerce from Ryerson University and a Masters in Business Administration
from the Schulich School of Business, York University.
Brian Hurley, Executive Chairman
20+ years of mortgage insurance experience
Mr. Hurley led the establishment of Genworth into the Canadian marketplace in 1994 and later led it through its initial public offering in 2009. He stepped down as President and CEO of Genworth Canada and assumed the role of Executive Chairman in January 2015. Mr. Hurley has more than 20 years of senior management experience in the mortgage insurance industry worldwide, including leading Genworth’s activities in key international markets from 2004 to 2009. Prior roles include Senior VP, International of General Electric’s U.S. mortgage insurance business and Senior VP of Sales and Operations. Mr. Hurley graduated from Assumption College in Worcester, Massachusetts with a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics.
53 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2015 Investor Day
[email protected] investor.genworthmicanada.ca
Investor Relations
Jonathan A. Pinto, MBA, LL.M
Vice President, Investor Relations
[email protected] 905.287.5482