2016 05 Smith SEDAR 41 review workshop report...The Monte Carlo Bootstrap (MCB) evaluations of...
Transcript of 2016 05 Smith SEDAR 41 review workshop report...The Monte Carlo Bootstrap (MCB) evaluations of...
ExternalIndependentPeerReviewofthe
SEDAR41SouthAtlanticRedSnapperandGrayTriggerfishAssessmentReviewWorkshop
Preparedby
StephenJ.Smith
383PortlandHillsDriveDartmouth,NovaScotia
CanadaB2W6R4
for
TheCenterforIndependentExperts
May2016
Executivesummary
TheSoutheastData,Assessment,andReview(SEDAR)41ReviewPanelmetfrom15to18March2016,inCharleston,SCtoreviewthedataandassessmentsforSouthAtlanticredsnapperandgraytriggerfish.ThepanelconsistedofthreeSouthAtlanticFisheriesManagementCouncil(SAFMCSSC)membersasreviewers,oneofwhomchairedthemeeting,andthreeCenterforIndependentExperts(CIE)reviewers.Redsnapperwaslastassessedin2010(SEDAR24,2010)andgraytriggerfishwasoriginallytobeassessedatSEDAR32in2013,butthediscoveryofageingerrorsdelayedtheassessmentuntilthismeeting.TheprimaryassessmentmodelusedwastheBeaufortAssessmentModel(BAM),asoftwarepackagethatimplementsastatisticalcatch-at-ageframework.Theformulationisanage-structuredpopulationmodelthatisfitusingstandardstatisticalmethodstodataavailablefromsurveysandcommercialandrecreationalfishingfleets,suchaslandings,discards,indicesofabundance,agecompositions,andlengthcompositions.Lateinthemeeting,correctionshadtobemadetotheagecompositionsfortheChevrontrapsurveyestimates,whichdelayedhavingthecompleteresultsforthebasecasemodelforredsnapperavailabletothereviewpaneluntilafterthemeeting.Afollow-upwebinaron8April2016wasnecessarytocontinuediscussionofprojectionsandfinalizetheSEDAR41ReviewWorkshopprocess.Theresultsoftheage-basedmodelindicatedthattheredsnapperstockwasoverfishedandoverfishingwasoccurring.Theresultsofthestockassessmentwerejudgedtobethebestscientificinformationavailable;however,theincreasingrelianceondiscarddatatomonitortheamountandsizecompositionofremovalswillmakeprojectionshighlyuncertain.TheBAMwasalsousedfortheSouthAtlanticgraytriggerfishstockwithcommercialandrecreationallandings,discards,andlengthandagecompositions.TheChevrontrap/videosurveywastheonlyabundanceindexusedinthemodel.TheestimatesoflowabundanceatthebeginningofthetimeseriesduetothehighweightgiventotheChevrontrap/Videosurvey,andthepoorfittoagecompositionsoftheheadboatfleetandsurveyindex,especiallyafterthecorrectionofChevrontrapagecompositions,ledtheReviewPaneltorecommendthatfurthermodelingandreviewwasneededbeforeabasecasecouldbeacceptedformanagingthisfishery.TheReviewPaneldidnotaccepttheproposedbasecasemodelasbeingappropriatefordeterminingstockstatus.BackgroundThereviewworkshopofthe41stSoutheastData,Assessment,andReview(SEDAR)processwasconvenedinCharleston,SCfromMarch15to18,2016.ThepurposeoftheworkshopwastoreviewstockassessmentsforSouthAtlanticredsnapperandgraytriggerfish.ThestocksassessedthroughSEDAR41arewithinthejurisdictionoftheSouthAtlanticFisheriesManagementCouncil(SAFMC)andthestatesofFlorida,Georgia,SouthCarolina,andNorthCarolina.Redsnapperwaslastassessedin2010(SEDAR24,2010)andgraytriggerfishwasoriginallytobeassessedatSEDAR32in2013,butthediscoveryofageingerrorsdelayedtheassessmentuntilthismeeting.DescriptionoftheIndividualReviewer’sRoleintheReviewActivitiesBackgroundinformation,meetingarrangementsandothermaterialweremadeavailabletothereviewerseitherviaemailorthroughanftpsitestartingonMarch2,2016.Ireviewedthetwomainassessmentworkshopdocumentsaccessingthebackgroundinformationasnecessarytogetmoredetailonthedatausedoranalysisthatwascarriedout.OnMarch11,Iparticipatedinaone-hourconference
call/webinarwithavailablereviewersandassessmentleadshostedbyJuliaByrd(SAFMC)andLuizBarbieri(ReviewPanelchair)togooverarrangements,agenda,etc.,andalsotogooveranyquestionsorclarificationsconcerningtheassessmentdocuments.ThereviewmeetingwasheldMarch15to18attheCrownePlazaCharlestonAirportConventionCenterinCharleston,SC.Thefirstdayofthemeetingwasdevotedtothepresentationofthematerialonredsnapperandgraytriggerfish.ThetwoassessmentteamsreturnedonWednesdaywithpresentationsdealingwiththeirresponsestoissuesandquestionsthatthepanelhadbroughtupduringtheoriginalpresentations.AproblemwiththedatausedtogeneratetheagecompositionsfortheChevrontrapsurveyestimateswasreportedonThursdaymorning,andbothassessmentteamsspentthedayre-runningtheirbasemodelfitsandreportingonimpactoftheagedatacorrectionontheirresults.LateonThursday,thepanelconcludedthattheagedatacorrectioninadditiontootherissuesraisedforthegraytriggerfishassessmentindicatedthatthecurrentassessmentmodelcouldnotbeusedformanagingthefisheryandtheassessmentpanelneededtoevaluatethemodelincontextofcommentsfromthereviewpanel.Fridaymorningwasspentclarifyingwhatfurthermaterialwasrequiredfromtheredsnapperteamandthetimelineforfinalizingthereviewpanelreport.IndustryrepresentativesattendedallofthesessionsandmanypresentedcommentsduringthePubliccommentsessionheldattheendofeachday.TheMonteCarloBootstrap(MCB)evaluationsofuncertaintyandprojectionsfortheredsnappernewbasecasewerenotavailabletothepanelattheendofthemeeting,butweredistributedtothepanelonMarch24.TheresultswerepresentedtoavailablemembersofthepanelandotherparticipantsoftheoriginalmeetingduringawebinaronApril8.Attheendofthiswebinar,thesubmissiondateforthepanelreportwasrescheduledtoApril15.ThischangeindateinturnledtoreschedulingofthedateforsubmissionofindividualreviewstoCIEtoApril22.Thepanelreviewchairassignedmetodeveloptextforthereviewreportsectionsontheassessmentfindingstermofreference(TOR3),aswellascontributetoTOR4and7,basedonmynotesandthosecontributedbyotherpanelists.TheotherCIEandSAFMCSSCpanelistsweregivensimilarassignments.Thechairwasresponsibleforthecompilingallofthetextintothedraftreviewreport.AllofthepanelistscontributedtoeditingthecompletedraftreportwhichwassubmittedonApril15.SummaryofFindingsforeachToR
1. Evaluatethedatausedintheassessment,includingdiscussionofthestrengthsandweaknessesofdatasourcesanddecisions,andconsiderthefollowing:
Redsnapperandgraytriggerfish
a) AredatadecisionsmadebytheDWandAWsoundandrobust?ThedocumentationinsupportofthedatadecisionsmadebytheDataWorkshop(DW)andAssessmentWorkshop(AW)weredetailedandcomprehensive.AllofthecritiquesintheDWreportforthedifferentdatasetsconsideredforinclusionintheassessmentwereinformativeanddealtwithlimitationsandsourcesofbias.TheAWreportdocumenteddatadecisionsmadeaftertheDWaswellastheresultsofdecisionsconcerningselectivity,
abundanceindices,ageandlengthcompositions,etc.Alldecisionswerewell-supportedandbackgroundsupportingdocumentswerealsoavailable.b) Aredatauncertaintiesacknowledged,reported,andwithinnormalorexpectedlevels?DatauncertaintieswerediscussedindetailintheDWandforthosedatasetsrecommendedforinclusionintheassessment,measuresofdataqualitysuchasCoefficientsofVariation(CVs),samplesizeorrangesofplausibleparametervalueswereprovided.TheAWusedthesemeasurestoweightdifferentdataseriesinthemodelandtoparameterizetheMCBandsensitivityanalyses.c) Aredataappliedproperlywithintheassessmentmodel?TheapplicationofthedataintheBeaufortAssessmentModel(BAM)followscommonpracticeandwasjudgedtobesound.TheDWandAWthoroughlyevaluatedanumberofissuesdealingwithwhatyearsweretobeused,howdatawastobeweightedinthemodelandsourcesofuncertaintywerewelldocumented.d) Areinputdataseriesreliableandsufficienttosupporttheassessmentapproachand
findings?
RedsnapperTheinputdataseriesappearadequatetosupporttheassessmentresultsandfindings.WhiletheDWandAWdiddocumenttheevaluationanddecisionsforthemanydifferentkindsofdatausedinthisassessment,thefollowingissueswerenotedwhendiscussingthestrengthsandweaknessesassociatedwiththedifferentkindsofdatathatwereused.FisheryremovalsThecurrentevaluationofstockstatus,especiallyintermsoftheoverfisheddeterminationisconditionalonthereconstructionofthehistoricaltimeseriesofpopulationandcatchhistoryincludingbothlandingsanddiscards.Inthisassessment,thetimeserieswasstartedin1950toestablishaperiodofstableagestructureduringaperiodoftimewhenfishingmortalitywasexpectedtobeverylow.Thereconstructionoftheremovalseriessince1950requiredconsiderableworkandreviewbytheDWtocombineavailabledata,inferhistoricalcatchesbasedonrecentdataandtoaccountforweightconversions,speciesmisidentification,areaofcapture,etc.RecreationalcatchesrecordedinMRFSSfrom1981to2003hadtobecalibratedtobeconsistentwithcatchesinMRIPfrom2004tothepresent.Sincetheintroductionofthemoratoriumin2010,removalshaveconsistedofdiscardsandbeginningin2012limitedcatchesfromthecommercialhandlineandrecreationalfleetsduringthemini-seasons.Thegeneralrecreationalfleethasaccountedforthehighestproportionofremovals(landingsplusdiscards,53to71%)overthemini-seasonswithbetween41to50%ofthoseremovalsbeingassignedtodiscards.TheMRIPprogramwasdesignedtosampletherecreationalfisheryoverthewholeyearanddatafromStatesurveyshavebeenusedduringthebrief(3to8days)mini-seasonswhereMRIPdatawerenot
availableorconsideredtobelessreliable.Thereviewpanelnotedthiscollaborationandencourageditscontinuation.Discardsareself-reportedinlogbooksandrecordedbysomeat-seaobservercoverageforcommercialhandlineandheadboatfleets,andself-reportedbyanglersduringinterceptinterviewsforthegeneralrecreationalfleet.Discardestimatesarelessreliablethanlandingsdata,butunderthecurrentmanagementregime,discardswilllikelybethemajorsourceofremovalsinthenearfuture,especiallyiftheapparentstrengthofthe2013yearclassidentifiedintheBAMBAMandpreliminary2015CVIDsurveydataisconfirmed.TheReviewPanelsupportsanyinitiativestoimprovethequalityofdiscardsandlandingsestimatestoimprovetheprecisionandaccuracyofestimatesofremovals.LengthandagecompositionsTheReviewPanelagreedwiththerecommendationbytheAWtoonlyfittolengthcompositionsintheBAMBAMwhenagecompositionswerenotavailable.Lengthcompositionsonlywereavailableforthecommercialhandlinefrom1984to1992,commercialdiscardsin2009and2013,andheadboatdiscardsfrom2005to2014.Agecompositionswerefitinthemodelforhandlinelandingsin1990,1992,1994,and1996to2014,headboatlandingsfrom1978to2014,generalrecreationalfrom2001to2014,andCVIDfor2010to2014.RelativeabundanceindicesTherationaleforincludingabundanceindicesfromthefishery-independentcombinedChevrontrap/videosurvey(CVID,2010–2014)anddatafromthreefishery-dependentCPUEseriesintheBAMstockassessmentmodelwereacceptedbythereviewpanel.CombiningthetrapandvideodataintooneCVIDindexmadesensegiventhatthecamerasweremountedonthetraps.Limitingthehandlineandheadboatcatchrateseriesto2009wasalsoaccepted,giventhatfishermenandanglers’behaviorwouldbeexpectedtochangeduringthemoratorium.Thisleavestheheadboatdiscardrateastheonlyabundanceseriesthatspansboththeopenandclosedfisheryperiods.However,itwouldseemlikelythatthediscardrateindexwouldalsobeaffectedbychangingbehaviorduringthemoratoriumandreduceitseffectivenessasanabundanceindex.SensitivityrunswereconductedtoevaluatethisindexbytheAWandpresentedtothepanel(seeTOR3below).Thefisherydependent(commercialhandlinecatchrates,recreationalheadboatcatchratesanddiscardcatchrates)andindependent(CVIDsurvey)abundanceindicesweremodelledusingeitherzero-augmented(fisherydependent)orzero-inflated(fisheryindependent)GeneralizedLinearModels(GLM).CVsweredevelopedusingbootstrapmethodsforallmodelsexceptfortheheadboatdiscardindexwhereajackknifeapproachwasused.TheestimatedCVsforthehandlineandheadboatcatchrateswerealllessthan0.1andweresetto0.2fortheBAMbasemodel.TheincreaseinCVto0.2reflectedargumentsmadeinFrancisetal.(2003,SEDAR41-RD72)thatCVsestimatedforeitherfisherydependentorindependentindicesunderestimatethetruevariabilityforabundance,becausetheydonotincludeannualvariabilityincatchability.Francisetal.(2003)recommendeddefaultCVsbetween0.15and0.2forfisherydependentdatasets,and0.2fortrawlsurveyannualvariationbasedonananalysisofdatasetsfromassessmentsofNewZealandstocks.TheCVsforthediscardandtheCVIDindicesrangedfrom0.17to0.37and0.17to0.26,respectivelyandwereusedasisinthemodel.ThisdoesnotmeanthatestimatedCVscloser
to0.2actuallydoincludevariabilityincatchabilityinsteadkeepingalloftheCVsintherangeof0.2moreorlessgivestheindicesequalfirststageweightsinthemodel.However,assumingaconstantCVoverthewholetimeseriesforthehandlineandheadboatcatchratesdoesnotreflectvariationinsamplesizeorotherfactorsbyyear.EvaluationofthevalidityoftheoriginalCVestimatesrequiresinformationonhowthestandardizedserieswerecalculated,andhowthebootstraporjackknifeprocedurewasimplemented.Whilethedescriptionsofthemodelingapproachusedwereadequatelydetailed,therewasnoinformationonhowthestandardizedtimeseriesusedinthestockassessmentwereactuallycalculated.InformationprovidedbyJ.Ballenger(SCDNR)afterthemeetingreferredtoRsoftwarethatwasdevelopedbyE.J.Dick(NMFS,SantaCruz),andmodifiedbyE.Williams(NMFS,Beaufort)andP.Conn(NMFS,Seattle),thatcalculatedtheannualindexestimatesforthezero-augmentedmodelsusingamarginalmeansapproach.Asimilarmarginalmeansapproachwasusedforthezero-inflatedmodelusingtheRfunctionexpand.grid.TherewerenodetailsonthestructureofthebootstrapestimatesforthefisherydependentindicesintheDWreport.J.BallengerreportedthatobservationswerebootstrappedfortheCVIDindexanditislikelythatthesamewasdoneforthefisherydependentindices.Themarginalmeanapproachtostandardizationisconditionalonhavingafixedsetofcovariatesorfactorlevelstocalculatetheyeareffectsfortheannualindex.Bootstrappingobservationsresultsinarandomsamplingofcovariateorfactorlevelsandgiventhatonaverageonly2/3ofthesamplesizeineachbootstrapsamplewillbeuniquerecordsorsets,rangesofcovariateswillvaryandfactorlevelsmaybemissingoverthesesamples.Modelscomputedforeachbootstrapsamplemaynotbestructuredthesameiffactorlevelsaremissing.Inaddition,changesintherangeofthecovariatesinthebootstrapsamplesmaynotsupporttheoriginalfittedmodel,especiallyforcoefficientsofhighdegreepolynomials.Finally,thebootstrapestimatesofvariancecouldalsoreflectvariabilityinthechangingbaseforthemarginalmeansapproach.Theseproblemsmaybelessofanissueforthejackknifeifitwasstructuredasasimple“leave-one-out”approach,exceptintheextremesituationswheretherewasonlyoneobservationforafactorlevel.Asanalternative,bootstrappingoftheresidualsfromtheoriginalmodelfittothedatamaymoreappropriatelyestimatethevarianceofthestandardizedsurveyindex.Inthiscasetheresiduals(intheappropriatescale)arerandomlycombinedwiththepredictedvaluesfromtheoriginalmodelfittogivenewobservationsthatarethenusedtofittheGLMmodelforeachbootstrapreplication.Therangeofthecovariatesandlevelsforthefactorswillstaythesameoverallofthebootstrapreplications,andthevariancesoftheannualindiceswillbeafunctionofthevariabilityoftheresidualsfromthefittedmodelconditionalonthestandardizationapproach.Iamnotawareofanypublishedapplicationsofthiskindofmodel-basedbootstrappingforthetwo-stagetypeofGLMsusedhereandtheremaybesomeissuesthatneedtobeworkedouttoobtainvalidvarianceestimates.
GrayTriggerfish
FisheryremovalsPriorto1980s,GrayTriggerfishwerenotheavilyexploitedastheywerenotconsideredadesirablespecies.Thefirstyearfortheassessmentwassettobe1988tocoincidewithwheninterestincatchingGrayTriggerfishdevelopedandwhendataondiscards,lengthandagecompositionbecameavailable.Thesamekindsofdatasourcesthatwereusedforredsnapperwereusedheretoreconstructthelandingsanddiscardhistoryforgraytriggerfish.Assuch,allofthesamecaveats,includingthoseconcerningthereliabilityofthediscarddataequallyapplyaswell.LengthandagecompositionsRecently,ageingraytriggerfishhasbeensuccessfullydeterminedusingincrementsindorsalspines,becauseofthedifficultyinobtainingincrementdatafromotherhardstructuresincludingotoliths.ResultsfromfittingvonBertalanffygrowthcurvestothelengthandagedataindicatedthattherewasaverybroaddistributionoflengthatagerelativetotheannualincreaseinlengthbyage.ThisinturncanmakeitdifficulttoestimateannualagecompositionsandtrackcohortsbyBAMthroughfitstosamplelengthcompositions.TheAWhadrecommendedthatbothlengthandagecompositionsforheadboatsandtheCVIDbeincludedinthemodel,butthisraisedconcernsbytheReviewPanelthatthesedatawereinsensebeingdouble-countedinthemodel,andthereforereceivingmoreweightinthemodelthantheseparatelengthandagecompositionsavailablefortheotherdataseries(e.g.,landings,discards).TheReviewPanelrequestedasensitivityrunofBAMomittinglengthcompositionswhereagecompositionswereavailable.Removalofthelengthcompositiondataresultedinpoorerfitstotheassociatedagecompositionssuggestingpossiblythatsamplingforagemayhavebeeninadequateforthosecases,especiallygiventhebroaddistributionoflengthatagenotedabove.RelativeabundanceindicesInitially,threefisherydependentabundanceindices,aheadboatindex(1995–2009),ageneralrecreationalindex(1993–2009),andacommercialhandlineindex(1993–2009)alongwiththeCVIDindexfortheperiod1990to2014,wereincludedintheBAMBAM.TheCVIDindexwasbasedonChevrontrapcatchesfortheperiodupto2010afterwhichthevideocameraindexwascombinedwiththetrapindex.TheAWrecommendeddroppingthethreefisherydependentindicesbecauseofconflictsbetweenthecommercialindexandthetworecreationalindices,andtheconflictbetweenallthreeandtheCVIDindex.TheversionpresentedtotheReviewPanelonlyincludedtheCVIDindex.Similartothecaseforredsnapper,thegraytriggerfishCVIDsurveydatawasmodeledusingaZeroinflatedNegativeBinomialmodel,andCVswerecalculatedbasedonbootstrappingthesurveyobservations,refittingthemodelandcalculatingastandardizedindexusingtheRfunctionexpand.grid.TheissuesraisedabovewiththisapproachforestimatingbootstrapCVsforredsnapperapplyequallytograytriggerfish.
ThepossibilityofgearsaturationeffectsfortheChevrontrapswasalsoraisedbytheresultsofBacheleretal.(2013;SEDAR41-RD79)whoshowthatcatchratesofGrayTriggerfishreachedanasymptoteonceamoderatenumber(between50and100individuals)ofallspecieswerecaughtinthetrap.
2. Evaluateanddiscussthestrengthsandweaknessesofthemethodsusedtoassessthestock,
takingintoaccounttheavailabledata,andconsideringthefollowing:Redsnapper
a) Aremethodsscientificallysoundandrobust?TheBAMBAMincorporateddatafromawiderangeofsourcestoformanintegratedviewofpopulationdynamicsfortheSouthAtlanticredsnapperstock.Anumberofassumptionshadtobemadeconcerningincompletecoveragewithrespecttotime,space,andfisheries.Thisassessmentevaluatedtherobustnessofthestockstatusdeterminationstothedatadecisions,assumptions,andalternativemodelconfigurationsthroughextensivesensitivityanalysesandMonte-CarloBootstrapanalyses.Themethodsusedforthisassessmentwerejudgedtobescientificallysoundandrobust.b) Areassessmentmodelsconfiguredproperlyandusedconsistentwithstandard
practices?TheBAMistheapprovedassessmentmethodformanystocksintheSouthAtlanticSnapper-Groupercomplex,andallowsforincorporatingfisherydependentandindependentindices,aswellaslifehistoryinformationintothestockassessment.Thismodelisalsowellsuitedfordealingwithremovalsfromavarietyofsources,suchascommercialfisheries,recreationalfisheries,anddiscards.Themodelforthisstockassessmentwashighlycomplexwithmanyassumptionsanddatasources,anditsapplicationwasconsistentwithstandardpractices.Theconfigurationwasthoroughlyevaluatedwithrespecttothedeterminationofstockstatus.InadditiontotheBAM,twoproductionmodelsandacatchcurveanalysiswereappliedtothedata.Allofthesemodelswereappliedtothedataaccordingtostandardpractices.c) Arethemethodsappropriatefortheavailabledata?ThetwoproductionmodelsignoredthelengthandagecompositiondatathatwereusedintheBAMBAM.Whilethemodelingofthelengthandagecompositiondatacanbecomplexduetotheneedtoassumedifferentformsofselectivityforindicesandremovals,thereviewpanelagreedwiththeconclusionsoftheAWthatthesedataareanimportantsourceofinformationforunderstandingthestockpopulationdynamics.Thecatchcurvemethodassumesthatthepopulationagestructurewasstableduetoconstantrecruitmentandmortality,neitherofwhichconditionsholdforredsnapper.Inaddition,selectivitiesforthecatchcurveanalysiswereallassumedtobeflat-toppedunlikethemostofthoseusedintheBAM.
TheBAMbasemodelconfigurationwasagreedtobethemostappropriatefordeterminingstockstatusgiventheinformationavailable.ThebaseconfigurationpresentedattheAWhadtobeupdatedduringthereviewpanelmeetingtocorrecttheagecompositionsfortheChevrontrapsurveys.Thisupdatedversiondifferedfromtheoriginalbasecasewithrespecttoprovidingslightlymoreoptimisticstatusdeterminationmeasures,althoughstockstatusremainedthesame.RemovaloftheCVIDindexresultedinmoreoptimisticstockstatusmeasuresalthoughstockstatusdeterminationsremainedthesameasthebasecase(S4).Aflat-toppedselectivityfunctionforages4+wasassumedfortheCVIDcatches,implyingthattherelativeabundanceofolderfishwasrepresentedbythissurvey.PubliccommentsubmittedbeforeorpresentedduringthepanelreviewsuggestedthatthelargerolderredsnapperwouldnotbeasvulnerabletotheChevrontrapsasyoungerfish,duetobehaviororhabitatspecificdifferencesincludingdepth.However,studiesonredsnapperavailabletothereviewpaneldidnotfindevidenceforlength/depthrelationships(SEDAR41-RD34)orthelackoflargerfishinchevrontraps(SEDAR31-RD36,SEDAR31-DW28).Thepanelnotedthatsomeofthelargestandoldestfishinthelength/agesampleswerefromtheCVIDsurvey.Thepanelconcludedthattherewasinsufficientevidencetorejecttheflat-toppedselectivitycurvefortheCVIDsurvey.Priortothemoratoriumtheselectivityforthegeneralrecreationallandingswereassumedtobedomedshapesimilartothelandingsfromtheheadboatfleet.Duringthemoratorium,thedomedshapedcurvewascontinuedtobeusedfortheheadboatfleet,butaflat-toppedselectivitywasassumedforthegeneralrecreationallandingstoreflectthelargersizeandolderagecompositionsseeninthesamplesduringthemini-seasons.Theassessmentteamconductedasensitivitystudyatthepanel’srequest,wherethedomedshapeselectivityfortheheadboatfleetwasusedforthegeneralrecreationalfleet.Thismodificationdidnotresultinanychangeofstockstatusdeterminationfromthebasecase,althoughtherewassomedegradationinthefitstotheagecompositiondata.Generalrecreationaldiscardswereestimatedfromanglerinterviewdataandnosizecompositioninformationwasavailable.Thesizeandagecompositionofthesediscardswasassumedtobethesameastheheadboatdiscards,eventhoughthegeneralrecreationalfisherywasassumedtobetargetinglarger/olderfishthantheheadboatsduringthemini-seasons,asrepresentedbytheflat-toppedselectivitycurveusedforthisfishery.Estimatedgeneralrecreationaldiscardsaccountedfor56%oftheremovalsbynumbersin2014,andwillcontinuetobeamajorsourceofinformationasthemoratoriumcontinues.Estimatesofthesediscardsarealsothemostuncertaincomponentoftheremovalsdata.TheassessmentteamwasunabletofittheBAMBAMassumingerrorinlandings,andinthebasemodelallremovaldatawasfitassumingaCVof0.05.Sensitivityrunsassuminghigherorlowertotaldiscardsdidnotresultininanyappreciablechangestostockstatus(S19,S20).
GrayTriggerfish
a) Aremethodsscientificallysoundandrobust?TheBAMwasusedfortheSouthAtlanticgraytriggerfishstockassessmentwithdatasourcessimilartothoseusedfortheredsnapperassessment.Thismodelandtheassociatedsensitivityanalysesareconsideredscientificallysoundandrobust.b) Areassessmentmodelsconfiguredproperlyandusedconsistentwithstandard
practices?ThebasemodelonlyincludedtheCVIDsurveyasanindexofabundanceandusedsixtimesup-weightingtoimprovethefitofthesurveyinthemodel.Thebasemodelestimatedverylowlevelsofabundanceintheinitialyearsof1988and1989atatimewhenexploitationwasexpectedtobequitelow.Sensitivityrunsdeterminedthatacombinationoffittingthemodelcloselytothelow1990CVIDpointbyusingsixtimesup-weightingandtheassumedselectivityfortheCVIDresulted in lowabundanceandrecruitment inthefirsttwoyears. FittingtheCVIDwithoutup-weightingessentiallyresultedinnoappreciabletrendoverthetimeseriesalthoughthefitwascontainedwithintheconfidenceintervalsforallthesurveypoints.ThebaseconfigurationoftheBAMfromtheAssessmentWorkshopwasrevisedwithcorrectedagecompositionsoftheCVIDsurveyduringtheReviewWorkshop.Althoughthedeterminationofstockstatuswasnotinfluencedbythecorrection,resultsfromthecorrectedbasemodelweresomewhatdifferent.TheReviewPanelrequestedandreviewedtworevisedmodelstoresolveapparentdifficultiesinfittingtothesurveyandassociatedestimatesofabundanceinthefirstyearoftheassessmentseries.AnalternativeBAMconfigurationwithastartingyearof1974estimatedaseriesoflowrecruitmentstoexplainthelowsurveyindexin1990.Theextremelylowestimatesofabundanceinthefirstyearoftheassessmentmayresultfromanunusualsurveyobservationinthefirstyearofthesurvey,ratherthanoverfittingtheentiresurveyseries.Anexploratoryanalysisthatremovedthe1990surveyobservationproducedestimatesofabundanceinthefirstyearoftheassessmentthatwassimilartotherestofthetimeseries.TheChevrontrapsurveybeganin1988,buttheprotocolwasbeingrefinedin1988and1990.Therehavebeennochangestothedesignofthesurveysince1990.However,HurricaneHugowas7-8monthspriortothe1990survey.AstudyofJamaicanreeffishfoundchangesinabundance,behavior,anddistributionayearafterHurricaneAllen(Kaufman1983).TheReviewPanelwasalsoconcernedthattheneedtoup-weightthesurveymayresultfromusingcompositionsamplestwice(asagecompositionsandlengthcompositions).Anexploratoryanalysisthatremovedlengthcompositionsforfleetswithagecompositions,withnoup-weightingofthesurvey,stilldidnotfitthesurveywell.c) Arethemethodsappropriatefortheavailabledata?Basedonthemagnitudeofchangestothedata,resultsandmodeldiagnosticsfromtheAssessmentWorkshopbasemodel,aswellasconcernsaboutoverfittingthesurvey,the
ReviewPanelrecommendsthatfurthermodelingisneededtomodelthecorrecteddataappropriately.
3. Evaluatetheassessmentfindingsandconsiderthefollowing:
Redsnapper
a) Areabundance,exploitation,andbiomassestimatesreliable,consistentwithinputdataandpopulationbiologicalcharacteristics,andusefultosupportstatusinferences?
TheReviewpanelacceptedthenewbasemodelwiththecorrectedagecompositionsfortheCVIDsurveyindexasthebestavailablemodeltoprovideadvicefortheSouthAtlanticredsnapperfishery.However,thereviewpaneldidhaveconcernswhicharediscussedbelow.Thereliabilityofmodelestimatesofabundance,biomass,andexploitationdependonhowwellthemonitoringindicesincludedinthemodeltrackthepopulationtrendsovertime.Inthisassessment,fisherydependentcatchrateswereusedforthepre-moratoriumperiodandwerereplacedbytheCVIDsurveyindexfor2010tothepresent.TheMRIPannualredsnapperdiscardratefromtheheadboatfleetfor2005tothepresentwastheonlyindexthatspannedthetwotimeperiods.Theconsistencyofthestockstatusdeterminationsforthiscombinationofmonitoringindiceswasevaluatedthroughaseriesofsensitivityruns.TheserunsindicatedthatthedeterminationofstockstatuswasactuallyfairlyinsensitivetochangessuchasusingthelongertimeseriesfortheCVID(S9),removingtheCVID(S4),up-weightingthefisherydependentindices(S3),droppingtheheadboatdiscardindexfor2010tothepresent(S12),droppingtheheadboatdiscardindexaltogether(S16),oronlyusingtheCVID(S23).Allindiceswerewellfitbythedata,exceptfortheheadboatdiscardrateinthemostrecentyears.Alloftheseresultssuggestthatthepopulationtrendsinthemodelresultsprobablyhaveasmuchormoretodowiththeveryclosefitofthemodeltothelandings,discarddata,andassociatedagecompositionsastheydowiththetrendsinthemonitoringdata.CVsweresetto0.05forthelandingsanddiscards,whichseemsunreasonablylowfortheMRIPestimatesofthelatterinthecaseoftherecreationalfishery,butahigherCVof0.20fordiscardswasinvestigatedinMCBstudy,andtheresultsdidnotindicateachangeinstockstatusfromthebasecase.b) Isthestockoverfished?Whatinformationhelpsyoureachthisconclusion?Theestimatedabundancefor2014wasatlevelsnotseeninthemodelsincethemid-1960s;however,the2014populationmainlyconsistedofages1–4years(96%bynumber).Despitethesehighabundancelevels,thestockisoverfishedbybiomassasSSB2014/SSBF30%=0.16duetothelackofolderfishinthepopulation.
c) Isthestockundergoingoverfishing?Whatinformationhelpsyoureachthisconclusion?Thereviewpanelcouldnotfindanyevidenceagainsttheoverfishingdeterminationintheassessment,butdidhaveanumberconcernsthatarediscussedbelow.Thepanelalsoreflectedonissueswithusingapicalfishingmortalitytomonitortheimpactofthefisheryonthestockovertime(seeitemebelow).Thecurrentdeterminationthatoverfishingisoccurringwhilethefisheryisundermoratoriumgeneratedmuchdiscussionduringthepanelreview.Themoratoriumhasnotresultedinacompleteclosureastherehavebeenlandingsfrommini-seasonsin2012–2014andremovalsduetodiscardsduringtheseseasonsandthroughoutallofmoratoriumyearsforrecreationalfisheries.Theestimatedfishingmortalitiesreflectthelargedecreaseexpectedwiththeintroductionofthemoratoriumin2010.However,since2010fishingmortalitieshaveincreasedfromthislowpointmainlyduetodiscardmortalitiesandcatchesfromthegeneralrecreationalfishery.AcomparisonofFatages1,2,3,4,and5+indicatesthatwhilefishingmortalitywasgreatlyreducedonallagegroupsin2010,fishingmortalitygreatlyincreasedontheolderage4and5+groupby2014whiletheFsfortheyoungergroupageslevelcontinuedtobelower.Themoratoriumappearstohavebeenabenefittotheyoungerfishbutnotsoforfish4yearsandolder,asinterpretedbytheselectivitycurvesusedforthemoratoriumyears.ThedeterminationofoverfishingintheassessmentreliesonthegeometricmeanofapicalFsummedacrossfleetseachyearover2012–2014period.Currently,F2012-2104/F30%=2.52.TheretrospectiveanalysisindicatedthattherewasasubstantialincreaseinapicalFfor2010to2013withtheadditionofthe2014data.TheindividualresultsforthedifferentrunswerenotpresentedanditisnotknownwhethertheagesatwhichtheapicalFsoccurredchangedwiththeadditionof2014data.Giventheretrospectivepattern,itislikelythathadtheredsnapperassessmentbeendoneayearago,evidenceforoverfishingwouldhavebeenmuchweakerthanpresentedhere.Themainchangebetween2013and2014wasthatlandingsanddiscardsbythegeneralrecreationalfleetweremuchhigherin2014comparedto2013byabout3.7timesfornumberslandedand3.4timesfordiscardnumbers.Estimatedincreaseinweightlandedbythegeneralrecreationalfleetwas3.4timesthe2013landings.Fishingmortalitiesassociatedwithgeneralrecreationallandingsanddiscardsmakeup78%ofthe2014apicalFestimate.Themini-seasonin2014waslongerthaninpreviousyears,andrecruitsin2014werethehighestinthetimeseries.Thepanelaskedforasensitivityruntoinvestigatetheimpactoftheflattoppedselectivitycurveassumedforthegeneralrecreationalfisherybysubstitutingthedomedcurveusedforheadboatsfor2010–2014.Thedomedselectivitydidnotresultinanysubstantialchangeinstockstatusfromthebasecase.Thefishingmortalities-at-agewerenotpresentedbygear,soitwasnotpossibletoseewhichagecorrespondedtoapicalFforthegeneralrecreationallandingsordiscardsforeitherselectivitycurve.d) Isthereaninformativestockrecruitmentrelationship?Isthestockrecruitmentcurve
reliableandusefulforevaluationofproductivityandfuturestockconditions?
Thestockrecruitmentcurvewasnotinformativeandinferencewasbasedonsettingsteepnessto0.99andassumingaveragerecruitment.Meanannualrecruitmentwasassumedandlognormaldeviationsaroundthatmeanwereestimatedinthemodel.Recruitmentistypicallynotwellestimatedinthelastyearofstockassessments,becausethereislittleinformationtoinformtheestimate.TheestimateofstrongrecruitmentinthelastyearoftheassessmentissupportedbythehighCVIDindex,aswellasthelengthcompositionoftheheadboatfleet.ReviewWorkshopparticipantsreportedcontinuedsignalsofstrongrecruitmentin2015fisheryandsurveydata.TheReviewPanelrecognizesthatprojectionsarelargelydependentontheestimateofrecentrecruitment,buttheestimatesofabundanceatagefromthebasemodelisthemostreliablebasisforstockstatusdeterminationandprojection.e) Arethequantitativeestimatesofthestatusdeterminationcriteriaforthisstock
reliable?Ifnot,arethereotherindicatorsthatmaybeusedtoinformmanagersaboutstocktrendsandconditions?
AlternativeMetricsofFishingMortality
EvaluatingtrendsinFovertimerequiresametricthatiscomparableamongyearsandreflectsexploitationacrossarangeofages.ApicalF(maximumFatage,Figure1)isbasedonadifferentrangeofagesamongyears,becauseofchangingfleetcontributionsandchangesinfleetselectivities.ApicalFalsodoesnotreflectFforpartiallyselectedages.
Figure1.Maximumfishingmortality(F)atageforSouthAtlanticredsnapper
DecidingonamoreappropriatemetricofFforRedSnapperischallengingbecauseofthecomplexityofpatternsinestimatedFatage(Figure2):
− Age-1Fhasonepeakin2004.Fwasnegligibleuntilthemid-1990s,peakedat0.4in2004,thendecreasedtoaround0.1since2010.
− Age-2Fhadonepeakat1.0in1985.Fdecreasedtoaround0.1inthelate1990s,increasedto0.2-0.3from1999to2010,thendecreasedtoaround0.1since2010.
− Age-3Falsohadamajorpeakat1.6intheearly1980s,decreasedto0.3-0.5intheearly1990s,increasedtoaminorpeakof0.8in2008anddecreasedto0.2-0.3since2010.
− Age-4Fhadthreepeaksat>1.0intheearly1980s,1.5in1997and1.4in2008,thenincreasingfrom0.2in2010to0.5in2014.
− Ages5andolderhavesimilarpatternsinF(threepeaksintheearly1980s,1997and2008-2009,thenincreasingfrom2010to2014).FormostofthetimeseriesFdecreaseswithage,butsince2010,Fatages5+issimilar,increasingfromapproximately0.2in2010to0.5in2014.
Figure2.Fishingmortality(F)atageforSouthAtlanticredsnapper.
AlternativemetricsofFwillreflectthesepatternsdifferently.SimpleaverageFatagecanreflecttrendsforsimilarages(e.g.,ages2–3,ages4+),andshowdifferentrecenttrends.Duringthemoratorium,Fremainedlowforages1–3,butmorethantripledforages4+(Figure3).
Figure3.Averagefishingmortality(F)foragegroups1-3and4+forSouthAtlanticredsnapper.
AverageFcanbeweightedbyabundanceatageorbiomassatagetomeasuretheaverageFexertedontheentirestock(Figure4).Withyoungagestypicallyhavinggreaterabundance,abundanceweightedaverageFreflectspatternsofFatyoungages.Biomasspeaksatdifferentagesovertheassessmenttimeseries(age-20in1950,age-2in2014),sobiomassweightedaverageFreflectsavaryingagerange.
AverageFcanalsobeweightedbyexploitableabundance(theproductofabundanceatageandselectivityatage)orexploitablebiomass(theproductofbiomassatageandselectivityatage)tomeasuretheaverageFexertedontheexploitablestock(Figure5).ThetwoexploitablestockaverageF’saresimilar,buttheexploitablebiomassweightedFreflectsolderages(e.g.,morethandoublesduringthemoratorium)andtheexploitableabundanceweightedFreflectsyoungerages(e.g.,remainslowduringthemoratorium).
Figure4.Averagefishingmortality(F)atageweightedbyestimatednumbers(Nweighted)orestimatedbiomass(Bweighted)forSouthAtlanticredsnapper.
Figure5.Averagefishingmortality(F)atageweightedbyexploitablenumbers(expNweighted)orexploitablebiomass(expBweighted)forSouthAtlanticredsnapper.
Theoverfishinglimit(F30%SPR)canbeexpressedinthesamecurrencyasthemeasureofFfromthestockassessment.F30%iscurrentlyexpressedasApicalF,assumingtheaverageselectivityforthelastthreeyearsofthestockassessment,whichpeaksatage-5(e.g.,F30%expressedasage-5Fis0.15).AllformsofF30%SPRexpressedasanaverageFareless
thanage-5F,becausetheyincludesomepartiallyrecruitedages.AccordingtoallofthealternativeFmetricsconsidered,overfishingisoccurring,buttovaryingdegrees.
Metric2012–2014Geo.Mean F30% F/F30%
F(age-5) 0.43 0.15 2.8F(ages1–3) 0.15 0.06 2.7F(age-4+) 0.35 0.12 2.8F(Nwtd) 0.14 0.08 1.8F(Bwtd) 0.24 0.11 2.1F(expNwtd) 0.20 0.10 2.0F(expBwtd) 0.31 0.12 2.5
GrayTriggerfish
a) Areabundance,exploitation,andbiomassestimatesreliable,consistentwithinputdataandpopulationbiologicalcharacteristics,andusefultosupportstatusinferences?
Anissuewasidentifiedwithinclusionofbothageandlengthcompositionsinthefittingprocess,whichwasexploredaftertheCVIDagecompositionshadbeencorrectedforerrorsdiscoveredlateintheweek.AdditionalrunstoestablishabasecasewiththecorrectedagecompositionsandremovinglengthcompositionswhenagecompositionsresultedinpoorfitstotheheadboatandCVIDagecompositions.Atthispoint,thereviewpanelconcludedthatgiventheseproblemsandthoseidentifiedforfittingtheCVIDindex,therewasn’tenoughtimeleftinthemeetingtoestablishabasecaseforgraytriggerfish.Theassessmentpanelneededtoreviewthefindingstodateandworkwiththeassessmentteamtodevelopanewbasecase.
b) Isthestockoverfished?Whatinformationhelpsyoutoreachthisconclusion?
WithoutanacceptedbasecasefromtheBAM,thereviewpanelwasunabletodetermineifthestockwasoverfishedwithrespecttothestandardreferencepoints.Abundancein2014fromtheCVIDsurveywasat82%ofthemaximumabundanceinthetimeseries.Basedontheinformationavailabletothereviewpaneltherewasnoevidencethatthestockisoverfishedatthistime.
c) Isthestockundergoingoverfishing?Whatinformationhelpsyoureachthisconclusion?
WithoutanacceptedbasecasefromtheBAM,thereviewpanelwasunabletodetermineifoverfishingwasoccurringwithrespecttothestandardreferencepoints.In2014totalremovalshavedeclinedby38%fromthelandingsin2009,whichrepresented
thehighestlandingsinthe1988to2014timeseries.TheCVIDsurveyindexindicatesthatabundancehasbeenincreasingsince2010.Basedontheinformationpresentedtothereviewpanel,therewasnoevidencethatcurrentlevelsofremovalshaveresultedinoverfishing.
d) Isthereaninformativestockrecruitmentrelationship?Isthestockrecruitmentcurvereliableandusefulforevaluationofproductivityandfuturestockconditions?
Thestockrecruitmentcurvewasnotinformativeastherewaslittleevidenceforlowrecruitmentatlowstocksize.Inferencewasbasedonsettingsteepnessto0.99andmeanannualrecruitmentwasassumed.Lognormaldeviationsaroundthemeanwereestimatedinthemodel.e) Arethequantitativeestimatesofthestatusdeterminationcriteriaforthisstock
reliable?Ifnot,arethereotherindicatorsthatmaybeusedtoinformmanagersaboutstocktrendsandconditions?
Withoutareliablebasecase,quantitativeestimatesofstatusdeterminationwerenotavailable.
4. Evaluatethestockprojections,includingdiscussingstrengthsandweaknesses,andconsiderthe
following:RedSnapper
a) Arethemethodsconsistentwithacceptedpracticesandavailabledata?TheprojectionmethodusedinthisassessmentwasconsistentwiththoseusedwidelyinSEDARassessmentsbasedonstatisticalmodelssuchasBAMandStockSynthesis,andwasconsistentwiththeavailabledata.ThemethodusedstochasticprojectionsthatextendedtheMonteCarlo/Bootstrap(MCB)fitsoftheassessmentmodelwithaddedstochasticityinrecruitment,andhencethepropagationofuncertaintyfromtheassessmentintotheprojectionperiodisinternallyconsistent.b) Arethemethodsappropriatefortheassessmentmodelandoutputs?TheReviewPanelconcludedthattheredsnapperstockprojectionsprovidedforSEDAR41areappropriatefortheBAMassessmentmodelandoutputs.c) Aretheresultsinformativeandrobust,andaretheyusefultosupportinferencesof
probablefutureconditions?Theprojectionsprovidetheinformationneededtodevelopmanagementadvice,showingprojectionsforF=0;F=FCURRENT(geometricmeanofthelast3years);F=F30%;F=FTARGET;F=FREBUILD(maxexploitationthatrebuildsingreatestallowedtime;2044).AnadditionalprojectionwascarriedoutwithFfromdiscardsonly.Eachprojectionshowsthe10thand90thpercentilesofthereplicateprojectionsallowinganevaluationoftheprobabilityof
overfishingoccurring,orthestockbeingoverfished,foreachyearintherebuildingtimeframeupto2044.Theprojectionsarerobustintermsofpropagatingrealisticlevelsofuncertaintyfromtheacceptedbasemodelrun.TheReviewPanelrecognizesthattheperceptionofcurrentselectivityusedtoderivereferencepointsandprojectionsisconditionalonrecentfishingbehavior,andprojectionsofalternativemanagementscenariosshouldconsideralternativeselectivityassumptionsthatareconsistentwitheachscenario.Forexample,alternativesthatdonotallowrecreationallandings(e.g.,moratoriawithnomini-seasons)shouldnotassumethestatusquocompositeselectivitythatincludesaflat-toppedselectivityforgeneralrecreationallandings.d) Arekeyuncertaintiesacknowledged,discussed,andreflectedintheprojectionresults?Keyuncertaintiesintheprojectionsareacknowledged,discussed,andreflectedintheprojectionresults.TheMCBrunsincludedrangesofvaluesofnaturalmortality,discardmortalityandfecundityatageagreedtobytheassessmentworkinggroup,togetherwithbootstrapselectionofdatausingwell-justifiederrordistributionsandadditionalrandomprocesserrorinrecruitmentconditionalonthefittedstockrecruitpatternwithsteepnessfixedat0.99.Initialagestructureatthestartof2015wascomputedbytheassessmentmodel,andfishingratesfortheprojectionstartedin2017followinganinitializationperiodin2015–2016,wherefishingmortalityrateswerederivedtorepresentthemanagementmeasuresinplace.Inaddition,thestockassessmentreportwasquiteclearonthefactthatitisunrealistictoassumethatthecurrentfishingpatternsincludingeffortbyfleet,discardtrends,andselectivitypatternswillcontinueasthestockrecovers.Managementactionsinresponsetostrongorweakyearclasseswillaffectthesepatternsandinturn,thecurrentprojectionsbasedonthem.
GrayTriggerfish
SincethebaseBAMforgraytriggerfishwasnotacceptedbytheReviewPanelprojections,resultswereonlyreviewedintermsofthemethodologicalapproachesused—i.e.,projectionsresultswerenotconsideredasprovidingplausiblescenariosand,therefore,werenotinvestigatedindetail.TheprojectionmethodusedisconsistentwiththoseusedwidelyinSEDARassessmentsbasedonstatisticalmodelssuchasBAMandStockSynthesis,andisconsistentwiththeavailabledata.Further,themethoddescribedforthestochasticprojectionsthatextendedtheMonteCarlo/Bootstrap(MCB)fitsoftheassessmentmodelwithaddedstochasticityinrecruitment,andhencethepropagationofuncertaintyfromtheassessmentintotheprojectionperiodisinternallyconsistent.
5. Considerhowuncertaintiesintheassessment,andtheirpotentialconsequences,areaddressed.RedSnapper
a) Commentonthedegreetowhichmethodsusedtoevaluateuncertaintyreflectandcapturethesignificantsourcesofuncertaintyinthepopulation,datasources,andassessmentmethods.
Athoroughevaluationofconvergenceandmodelsensitivityisnecessary,butdifficulttodoforacomplexmodellikeBAMbecauseofthelargenumberofparameters.Uncertaintiesintheassessmentwerethoroughlyexploredthrough(1)amixedMonteCarloandbootstrap(MCB)analysisofquantifyrandomerrorsintheassessmentoutput;(2)sensitivityanalysisaroundthebaseBAMrun;and(3)theuseofalternativeassessmentmodels.TheMonteCarloBootstrapprocedurealsoexploredmanycombinationsofalternativedataandmodelassumptions.Inthebootstrappingofobserveddataonlandings,informationfromtheheadboatprogramwasusedtospecifyadecreasingCVbytimeblocks(i.e.CV=0.15for1981–1995,CV=0.1for1996–2007,andCV=0.05thereafter).TheseCVsreflectrandomerrors.However,landingsfromtheheadboatfisheryaremonitoredthroughmandatorylogbooks,andthusshouldinprinciplehavezerosamplingerrorsforthevesselsinthesamplingframe.TheCVsmayreasonablyreflectrandomerrorsinreporting.However,varioussourcesofsystematicerrors(bias)arenotreflectedthroughtheseCVs.Itisknownthatunder-reportingoftripsdoesoccur,thatcatchdatamaynotalwaysbe100%accurate(forexample,duetorecallbiasiflogbooksarenotfilledinimmediatelyaftereachtrip),andthatothervariationsinreportinglikelyoccur.Becausethedistributionofsuchsystematicerrorsisunknown,itisnotpossibletoquantifythemagnitudeoftheresultinguncertaintyinthelandings.BootstrappingmethodswereusedextensivelytoestimateCVsforabundanceindicesbasedonresamplingoriginalrecordsorobservations,andthenre-fittingstandardizationmodels.AsdiscussedinTOR2,thepurposeofstandardizationistoderiveanindexforafixedsetofcovariates,butresamplingobservationswillintroducevariationassociatedwithcovariatesandthestandardizationprocess,whichwillnotappropriatelycapturethevariationinthestandardizedindex.Model-basedbootstrappingshouldbeconsideredasanalternativeapproachtocapturingthevariabilityofthestandardizedindex.Theinputdataoncatchcompositionandabundanceindicesbycohortareobtainedfrommulti-stagesamplingprogramswherefishingtripstypicallyaretheprimarysamplingunits(PSUs)forfisheriesdata,andlocations/standardizedtrapcatches(90minsoaktime)arethePSUsforthechevrontrap.Substantialcorrelationscanbeexpectedinageorlengthcompositiondatasetsthatareconstructedfromsamples/sub-samplesfrommultiplecatches(whetherfromfisheries-independentsurveysorfisheries,e.g.,AanesandVølstad2015).TheBAMitselfandtheMCBisnotlikelytorealisticallyaccountforcomplexerrorstructureindataweightingwithoutpriorestimatesoftheactualvariance-covariancematricesfortheinputdata.TherobustmultinomialapproachwithnumberofPSU’sasproxyeffectivesamplesizesemployedintheuncertaintyevaluationoftheBAMcanonlypartlyreflectthecomplexerrorstructure.Ideally,onewouldrunbootstrapresamplingonthePSU’stocreatereplicatedBAMrunsthatreflectthecomplexityininputdata,butgiventhecomplexityandconfigurationofBAMthisisnotpossible.TheReviewPaneltherefore
considerstheuncertaintyintheassessmenttobeappropriatelyaddressedgiventheserestrictions.Thesensitivityanalyseswereusedtoexploreawiderangeofdatadecisions,modelassumptionsandmodelconfigurationstoexaminetherobustnessofstockstatusdetermination.Themodelwasrunforaplausiblerangeofvaluesforeachfactor.TheReviewPanelnotedthatthesensitivitytestingbyalternatingonefactoratatime,althoughcommonlydone,maynotfullyreflecttheuncertaintyinmodeloutputsfromacomplexmodelsuchasBAMwithalargenumberofparameters,wheremanyarelikelytobecorrelated(e.g.,SaltelliandAnnoni2010).Globalsensitivityanalysis(Saltellietal.2008)maybeusedtountanglethecontributionofsinglefactors/parametersandinteractionsbetweenparameterstotheoverallvariabilityinmodeloutput.Andersonetal.(2011)provideanexcellentoverviewoftheliterature,andmanyexamplesofapplicationsofglobalsensitivityanalysistoIntegratedAssessmentModelsinclimateresearch,andsomeofthesearelikelytobeapplicabletotheBAM.ModeluncertaintywasmainlyexploredbyrunninganalternativeStockProductionModelIncorporatingCovariates(ASPICsoftwareVersion7.03,SEDAR41-RD74)thatreliesonlength-ageaggregatedcatchandCPUEindices,withnocompositionalcatchbeingincluded.ThedifferencebetweentheASPICandtheBAMresultscan,however,beexplainedbythefactthatASPICdoesnottakeintoaccounttheage-structureofthecatchesandthestock.TheBAMbaseconfigurationisthereforeconsideredtoprovidethemostappropriatebasisforstatusdetermination,despitemanysourcesofuncertainty.
b) Ensurethattheimplicationsofuncertaintyintechnicalconclusionsareclearlystated.TheReviewPanelagreedthattheimplicationsofuncertaintyinthetechnicalconclusionswereclearlystatedandevaluated.
6. ConsidertheresearchrecommendationsprovidedbytheDataandAssessmentworkshopsandmakeanyadditionalrecommendationsorprioritizationswarranted.
a) Clearlydenoteresearchandmonitoringthatcouldimprovethereliabilityof,and
informationprovidedby,futureassessments.
RedSnapper• Giventheconcernsexpressedbyindustryabouttheassumptionsfortheasymptotic
selectivityofredsnappertotheCVIDtraps,itwouldbeusefultohaveanotherfisheryindependentsourceofabundanceandsizecompositiondata.AlonglinesurveyisusedfortheGulfofMexicoredsnapperstock,andthissurveyisassumedtorepresenttheolderfishinthatpopulation.ThepossibilityofinitiatingalonglinesurveyfortheSouthAtlanticwasdiscussedduringthereviewpanelmeeting,anditisrecommendedthatsuchalonglinesurveyshouldbeimplementedassoonaspossible.
• Theapplicationofmodel-based(re-samplingofresiduals)bootstrappingforcalculationofCVsofstandardizedabundanceindicesshouldbeinvestigatedtoavoidvaryingthebasisforstandardizationateachbootstrapreplication.
• Theheadboatdiscardrateindexistheonlyfishery-dependentindexthatwasusedduringthemoratoriumyears.WhileretainingorremovingthisindexdidnotappeartoalterthedeterminationofstockstatusfortheBAM,itwasnotclearhowthisindexreflectstheabundanceofredsnapper,particularlytheyoungerfishatatimewhenanglersaresupposedtobeavoidingthem.Furtherworkisrequiredtoevaluatethereliabilityofdiscarddataasanabundanceindexbyimprovingknowledgeofprivaterecreationalfishermanbehaviorbeforeandduringthemoratorium.
• Discards,particularlythosefromthegeneralrecreationalfleetareamajorsourceofremovalsfromthisfisherywhileundermoratorium.Currently,thesizecompositionsofthediscardsfromthegeneralrecreationalareunknownandassumedtobeequaltothoseestimatedfortheheadboats.Knowledgeofthediscardsizecompositionwillbecomeincreasinglymoreimportanttodeterminethestrengthoftheapparentlystrong2013year-class.Alternativemethodsneedtobedevelopedtoobtainsizeinformationfordiscardsfromthegeneralrecreationalfleet.Onepossibilitythatcouldbeconsideredishavinga“text-a-picture”ofthe“onethatgotaway”contest.Participantscouldtakeapictureoftheredsnappertheycaughtnexttosomethingofknownlengthwiththeirsmartphonebeforediscardingthefish,andthentextthepicturetoanaddresswithinformationondate,time,androughlocationwhentheyreturntoshore.Prizescouldbeawardedbasedonsomecriterion.Thesesampleswillnotberandomsamplesperse,buttheywillatleastprovidearangeofsizesthatmayallowforevaluatingtheassumptionthatthegeneralrecreationsizecompositionscanberepresentedbytheheadboatagecompositions.Thesepicturesmayalsogivesomeinformationontheaccuracyofspeciesidentification.
• PubliccommentduringthePanelReviewsuggestedlargerfishwerenotbeingadequatelyrepresentedbytheChevrontrapsastheydonotassociatewiththeyoungerfishandmayoccupydifferentdepthranges.Aresearchprogramshouldbeinitiatedtodeterminethespatialdistribution(horizontalandvertical)ofredsnapperbysizeusingtrackingandtelemetry.
• ThecurrentestimateofageofsexualmaturityusedintheassessmentisyoungerthanexpectedcomparedtootherLutjanids.HasthisalwaysbeenthecaseforredsnapperintheSouthAtlanticorisitreflectiveofacompensatoryresponsetoheavyexploitation?Furtherinvestigationsintopossiblehistoricaltrendsintheageatsexualmaturityshouldbeinitiated.
• Thecurrentassessmentassumedthatbatchfecunditydidnotvaryovertime.Studiesshouldbeconductedtoevaluatethevalidityofthisassumption.
Graytriggerfish
• Length-at-agehadawiderangewhencomparedwiththeexpectedincreaseinlengthwithage.ThismakesitdifficulttoestimateannualagecompositionsandtrackcohortsbyBAMthroughfitstosamplelengthcompositions.Thisbroadrangeoflength-at-agemaybeduetoageingissues,andtheDWhasrecommendedavalidationstudytorefineandimproveagedetermination.Inaddition,thebroadrangemayalsorepresentspatialvariabilityingrowthcharacteristics.Iflength/agesamplesareavailablebylocation(e.g.,Chevronsets)thenanon-linearmixedeffectsmodelversionofthevonBertalanffymodelcouldbeusedtoinvestigatethepossibilityofsuchpatternswiththegroupingvariablesettolocation.Randomeffectsbylocationcouldbemappedouttoinvestigateforspatialpatternsingrowth.
• BubbleplotsorsomeotherinformativedisplayshouldbeaddedasadiagnostictoevaluatehowwelltheCVIDsurveytrackscohorts.
• FurthermodelingisneededtofitthecorrectedCVIDagecompositiondataandtoresolvethefittothesurvey.Inaddition,thevalidityofthe1990surveyobservationshouldbeevaluatedtoconsiderpossibleeffectsfromHurricaneHugoorotherpossiblereasonsforitappearingtobeabnormallylow.
• Giventheevidencefortrapsaturation,theCVIDindexshouldbere-evaluatedwithrespectthecatchratewithandwithoutsets,wheretotalcatchwasgreaterthan50fish.Temporaltrendsinnumbersoftrapswith>50totalcatchshouldalsobeinvestigated.
• Theapplicationofmodel-based(re-samplingofresiduals)bootstrappingforcalculationofCVsofstandardizedabundanceindicesshouldbeinvestigatedtoavoidvaryingthebasisforstandardizationateachbootstrapreplication.
• Moreresearchtobetterunderstandthelifehistoryisneeded,includingnaturalmortality,maturity,andreproductivepotential,particularlyfortheyoungestages.
• Researchontheeffectsofenvironmentalvariationonthechangesinrecruitmentorsurvivorship.
b) ProviderecommendationsonpossiblewaystoimprovetheSEDARprocess.Theredsnapperandgraytriggerfishassessmentswerebothverycomplexwithrespecttofisherycomposition,datasources,andmodels.BothassessmentsweresupportedbymanydocumentsfromtheassociatedDataandAssessmentworkshops.ThePanelreviewforbothstocksshouldhavebeenafullweekinsteadofthreeandhalfdaystoaccommodateallofthismaterial.UndernormalcircumstancesthiscouldhaveallowedfortimetodevelopthefirstdraftofthePanelReviewgroupreportbeforetheendofthemeeting.Forourparticularmeeting,thediscoveryoferrorsintheCVIDagecompositiondatawouldhavestillbeenasdisruptive,butthefivedaytimeframemayhaveallowedformoretimetocompletemodelruns,etc.,beforetheendofthemeeting.
7. Considerwhetherthestockassessmentconstitutesthebestscientificinformationavailableusingthefollowingcriteriaasappropriate:relevance,inclusiveness,objectivity,transparency,timeliness,verification,validation,andpeerreviewoffisherymanagementinformation.
Theassessmentforredsnapperconstitutesthebestscientificinformationavailable,andfulfilsthefollowingcriteria:Relevance:TheSEDAR41assessmentishighlyrelevantastheredsnapperstockisdepletedandundergoingrebuildingunderamoratoriumwithlimitedlandingspermittedandmostcatchesbeingdiscarded.Thedataandassessmentprovidethebestmeansofestablishingtherateofrecoveryofthestock,determiningifmeasuresarepreventingoverfishing,andprovidinginformationthatcanbeusedtoadjustmanagementactionswhereappropriate.Inclusiveness:TheSEDAR41assessmentincludesalldatathathavebeenqualityassuredandprovedadequateforuseintheassessment.ThisincludesdatafromState,aswellasFederal,samplingschemeswhereneeded,forexampletoestimatediscardsduringthemini-seasonwhereMRIPsamplingistoolimitedforsuchashortseasonlength.Objectivity:TheSEDAR41BAMBAMisahighlyobjectiveprocedurebasedonwell-testedassessmentmodelingprinciples,andusingdatasetsandassumptionsthathavebeenrigorouslydocumentedandreviewedthroughtheSEDARdata,assessmentandpeer-reviewprocess.Wherefullyobjectivedecisionsaredifficulttomake,suchassomedecisionsonscenariosforhistoriccatcheswhereevidenceislacking,theuncertaintiesaroundthedecisionsmadehavebeenexploredandincludedinsensitivityanalysesandtheMonteCarloBootstrapevaluationofassessmentuncertainty.Transparency:Alloutputsofthedata,assessmentandreviewworkshopsinSEDAR41arefullydocumentedandpubliclyavailable.Thediscussionsatthereviewworkshoparealsorecordedforrecord.Alldatasetsarethoroughlyexploredandthequalityofdataonwhichtheassessmentisbasedisdocumentedandtransparent,asarealldecisionsrelatedtothechoiceofassessmentmodel,howitisimplemented,andtheresultsofthebaserunandsensitivityanduncertaintyanalyses.Timeliness:TheSEDARprocessingeneralisarrangedtoprovidetimelyfisherymanagementadvicewhereitisneeded,andtoensurethatassessmentsarebenchmarkedandreviewedatappropriateintervals.Verification:TheSEDAR41assessmentprocessanddeliverablescomplywithlegalrequirementsundertheMagnusonStevensAct(2007)fordevelopingandmonitoringoffisherymanagementplansandprovidinginformationonstockstatus.Validation:TheSEDAR41processisdesignedtomeettheneedsoffisherymanagersforpeer-reviewedstockassessmentsandassociatedadviceonstockstatusandfuturecatches,andtheprocessisopenandfullytransparenttothefisherymanagersandtostakeholdersfromcommercialandrecreationalfisheries,conservationgroupsorotherswithastakeintheoutcomesandwhohaveopportunitytogivetheirviewsonrecord.Peerreview:TheSEDAR41processincludesfullpeer-reviewbyexpertsappointedbytheCenterforIndependentExperts(CIE)andbyreviewersfromtheSAFMCSSC.ThereviewpanelreportandtheindependentCIEreviewsarepubliclyavailable.
TheReviewPanelconcludedthat,asconfigured,theSEDAR41graytriggerfishstockassessmentmodelcouldnotbeconsideredthebestscientificinformationavailable.
8. CompareandcontrastassessmentuncertaintiesbetweentheGulfofMexicoandSouthAtlanticstocks.RedsnapperBoththeSouthAtlanticandGulfofMexicoredsnapperstockassessmentshavemultipleuncertainties.Thetablebelowsummarizesthesignificantsourcesofassessmentuncertaintyinthepopulation,datasources,andassessmentmethodsforbothstocks.
SourcesofUncertainty
SouthAtlantic(SEDAR41) GulfofMexico(SEDAR31)
Population
• Juvenilelifehistory,includingthelocationofjuvenilesbeforetheyrecruittothefishery
• Spatialdistribution(horizontalandvertical)oflargeadultRedSnapper
• Variabilityinbatchfecundityandspawningfrequencywithsizeandage
• Effectsofenvironmentalvariationonchangesinrecruitment
• Density-dependentchangesingrowth,reproduction,andnaturalmortality
• PopulationstructureandconnectivitybetweeneasternandwesternGulf(forbothadultsandjuveniles)
• Theuseandeffectofartificialreefstructuresonredsnapperpopulationabundance,ageandlengthcomposition,andspatialdistributioneffectsofenvironmentalvariationonchangesinrecruitment
• Density-dependentchangesingrowth,reproduction,andnaturalmortality
DataSources
• Limitedfisheryindependentindicesofabundance
• Nofisheryindependentindexofabundanceforearlyjuveniles
• Changesinselectivity,catch,anddiscarddataduetochangesinfisherbehaviorwithinandoutsidethemini-season
• Limitedfisheryindependentindexofabundanceforearlyjuveniles
• Limitedinformationonthemagnitude,size,andagecompositionofdiscards
• Poorly-informedselectivityfunctionsformostfleets
ItwasnotpossibletocompletethisToRforgraytriggerfishbecausetheSEDAR41stockassessmentcouldnotbesuccessfullycompleted(i.e.,manyoftheassessmentuncertaintiescouldnotbefullyevaluated).
9. Provideguidanceonkeyimprovementsindataormodelingapproacheswhichshouldbe
consideredwhenschedulingthenextassessment.Redsnapper
Inadditiontotheresultsfromtheresearchrecommendations(TOR6),additionalinformationshouldbeprovidedonhowremovalsandfishingmortalityaredistributedbyageforbothlandingsanddiscardsacrossthedifferentcommercialandrecreationalfleets.Thiskindofinformationmayprovideinsightintopossibleontogeneticspatialpatternsthatcouldbeusefulforassessingtheimpactofmini-seasonsandothermanagementactionsonthepopulation.Ifpatternsarediscernable,theymayprovidepossiblealternativesforweightingthedifferentfisherydependentabundanceindicesassociatedwiththelandingsordiscards.
Graytriggerfish
ThemajorkeyimprovementthatwillberequiredforthenextassessmentisanunderstandingofhowtheCVIDsurveytracksabundance.Theresearchrecommendations(TOR6)listanumberofpotentialresearchareasthatmayofferinsightsintotherelationshipbetweenSouthAtlanticgraytriggerfishandthissurvey.
• Poorinformationonthemagnitude,size,andagecompositionofdiscards
• Poorly-informedselectivityfunctionsformostfleets
AssessmentMethods
• UninformativeStock-Recruitmentrelationship(hadtouseproxyreferencepoints)
• Uncertaintyforcertainparametersanddatainputswasfixedtochosenvaluesthatcouldbeconsideredarbitrary(e.g.,CVforlandingsanddiscardsset=0.05)
• ModeluncertaintywasmainlyexploredbyrunninganalternativeStockProductionModel
• UninformativeStock-Recruitmentrelationship(hadtouseproxyreferencepoints)
• Uncertaintyforcertainparametersanddatainputswasfixedtochosenvaluesthatcouldbeconsideredarbitrary(e.g.,CVforlandingsset=0.05andfordiscards=0.5)
• Modeluncertaintywasnotexplicitlyexploredbytheuseofdifferentmodels
10. PrepareaPeerReviewSummarysummarizingthePanel’sevaluationofthestockassessmentandaddressingeachTermofReference.Developalistoftaskstobecompletedfollowingtheworkshop.CompleteandsubmitthePeerReviewSummaryReportinaccordancewiththeprojectguidelines.
ThesummarygroupreportfortheReviewPanelwassubmittedonApril15,2016.ThisindependentpeerreviewreportwassubmittedonApril21,2016.
ConclusionsandRecommendations
Theresultsoftheage-basedmodelforSouthAtlanticRedSnapperindicatethatthestockisoverfishedandoverfishingisoccurring.Whilethecurrentlevelsofabundanceareatthehighestsincethemid-1960s,thepopulationin2014consistedmainlyofages1–4years(96%bynumber).Asaresult,thecurrentpopulationbiomassislessthanexpectedatSSBF30%duetothelackofolderfish.Thefindingforoverfishingwasmadedespitethefactthatthefisheryhasbeenundermoratoriumsince2010.However,themoratoriumhasnotresultedinacompleteclosureastherehavebeenlimitedopeningsormini-seasonsin2012,2013and2014.Inaddition,alargeportionoftheremovalssince2010havebeenduetodiscardsespeciallyinthegeneralrecreationalfishery.AnnualfishingmortalityhasbeenmonitoredbyapicalFwhichwillbebasedondifferentagesovertimeasafunctionofthedifferingcontributionoffleetsandfleetselectivities.ApicalFdefinitelyshowsalargedecreaseinfishingmortalityfrom2009to2010,correspondingtothesettingofthemoratorium;however,fishingmortalityincreasesthereaftertowhereitisnowexceedingFF30%in2014.Thisincreaseinfishingmortalityappearstobeconfinedtoages4+onlyasthefishingmortalityfortheyoungeragesremainslow.PopulationestimatesforolderfishwereindexedbytheCVIDsurveyandtheassumedflat-toppedselectivitycurve.Researchrecommendationsweremadetoinvestigatethespatialdistributionofredsnapperbysizetodetermineifthelargerfishwerevulnerabletobeingcaughtbythetraps.Also,theadditionofalonglinesurveytosampleabroadsizerangeoffishwasalsorecommended.Underthecurrentmanagementregime,discardswillcontinuetobeasormoreimportantthanlandingsasremovalsfromthepopulation;however,discarddataprovidelessreliableestimatesthanlandingdata.Researchrecommendationsweremadetoimprovethesizecompositionestimatesforthediscards,inparticularforthegeneralrecreationaldiscardsforwhichnodirectsizecompositionsestimateswereavailable.TheReviewPanelreviewedtheBAMbasemodelforgraytriggerfish.Thebasemodelestimatedverylowlevelsofabundanceintheinitialyearsof1988and1989atatimewhenexploitationwasexpectedtobequitelow.Thisbehaviorappearedtobeaconsequenceoftheclosefittothelow1990CVIDsurveypoint,duetothesixtimesup-weightingalongwiththeassumedselectivityfortheCVID.AdditionalrunstoestablishabasecasewiththecorrectedCVIDagecompositionsandremovinglengthcompositionswhenagecompositionswereavailableresultedinpoorfitstotheheadboatandCVIDagecompositions.TheReviewPanelrecommendsthatfurthermodelingisneededtomodelthecorrecteddataappropriatelygiventhemagnitudeofchangestothedata,resultsandmodeldiagnosticsfromtheAssessmentWorkshopbasemodel,aswellasconcernsaboutoverfittingthesurvey.Researchrecommendationswereprovidedtoexploreforpossiblespatialreasonsfortheweakrelationshipbetweenageandlength,aswellas
furtherinvestigationoftheCVIDsurveyserieswithrespecttothe1990observation,evidencefortrackingcohortsandthepossibleeffectsofgearsaturation.
Appendix1:Bibliographyofmaterialsprovidedforreview
SEDAR41SouthAtlanticRedSnapperandGrayTriggerfish
WorkshopDocumentListDocument# Title Authors
DocumentsPreparedfortheDataWorkshop(DW)SEDAR41-DW01 UPDATED:GeorgiaHeadboatRedSnapperCatchand
EffortData,1983-2013AmickandKnowlton2014
SEDAR41-DW02 UPDATED:GeorgiaRedSnapperCatch&EffortCollectionduringMini-Seasons,2012-2014
Knowlton2015
SEDAR41-DW03 StandardizedvideocountsofSoutheastU.S.Atlanticgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)fromtheSoutheastReefFishSurvey**SeeSEDAR41-DW44forindexupdatedthrough2014
Purcelletal.2014
SEDAR41-DW04 StandardizedvideocountsofSoutheastU.S.Atlanticredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fromtheSoutheastReefFishSurvey**SeeSEDAR41-DW45forindexupdatedthrough2014
Purcelletal.2014
SEDAR41-DW05 GrayTriggerfishFishery-IndependentIndicesofAbundanceinUSSouthAtlanticWatersBasedonaChevronTrapSurvey**SeeSEDAR41-DW52forindexrecommendedfrom2015DW
Ballengeretal.2014
SEDAR41-DW06 RedSnapperFishery-IndependentIndicesofAbundanceinUSSouthAtlanticWatersBasedonaChevronTrapSurvey**SeeSEDAR41-DW53andSEDAR41-DW54forindexrecommendationsfrom2015DW
Ballengeretal.2014
SEDAR41-DW07 AgeTruncationandReproductiveResilienceofRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)AlongtheEastCoastofFlorida(hassincebeenpublished–seeSEDAR41-RD57)
Lowerre-Barbierietal.2014
SEDAR41-DW08 Theutilityofahookedgearsurveyindevelopingafisheries-independentindexofabundanceforredsnapperalongFlorida’sAtlanticcoast
Guentheretal.2014
SEDAR41-DW09 Sizeandagecompositionofredsnapper,Lutjanuscampechanus,collectedinassociationwithfishery-independentandfishery-dependentprojectsoffofFlorida’sAtlanticcoastduring2012and2013
Switzeretal.2014
SEDAR41-DW10 OverviewofFlorida’sCooperativeEastCoastRedSnapperTaggingProgram,2011-2013
Brodieetal.2014
SEDAR41-DW11 HabitatmodelsforGrayTriggerfishcollectedinfishery-independenttrapsurveysoffthesoutheasternUnitedStates
Muhlingetal.2014
SEDAR41-DW12 UPDATED:PreliminarystandardizedcatchratesofSoutheastUSAtlanticredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fromheadboatlogbookdata
SFB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-DW13 UPDATED:PreliminarystandardizedcatchratesofSoutheastUSAtlanticgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)fromheadboatlogbookdata
SFB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-DW14 UPDATED:Standardizedcatchratesofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fromheadboatat-sea-observerdata
SFB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-DW15 Standardizedcatchratesofgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)fromheadboatat-sea-observerdata
SFB-NMFS2014
SEDAR41-DW16 UPDATED:ReportonLifeHistoryofSouthAtlanticGrayTriggerfish,Balistescapriscus,fromFishery-IndependentSources
Kolmosetal.2015
SEDAR41-DW17 UPDATED:EstimatesofHistoricRecreationalLandingsofRedSnapperintheSouthAtlanticUsingtheFHWARCensusMethod**SeeSEDAR41-AW07forupdated2015Addendum
Brennan2015
SEDAR41-DW18
UPDATED:SouthCarolinaRedSnapperCatchandBiologicalDataCollectionduringMini-Seasons,2012-2014
Dukes&Hiltz2015
SEDAR41-DW19 UPDATED:Standardizedcatchratesofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)inthesoutheastU.S.fromcommerciallogbookdata
SFB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-DW20 UPDATED:Standardizedcatchratesofgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)inthesoutheastU.S.fromcommerciallogbookdata
SFB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-DW21 NorthCarolinaDivisionofMarineFisheriesRedSnapperCarcassCollections,2012-2013
NCDMF2014
SEDAR41-DW22 SEDAR41Redsnapperstockassessmentmustutilize“direct”estimatesofgearselectivity
BarileandNelson2014
SEDAR41-DW23 AtlanticRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)FishingHistoryTimeline
Hudson2014
SEDAR41-DW24 AtlanticRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)HistoricalFishingPictures
Hudson2014
SEDAR41-DW25 HistoricalFor-HireFishingVessels:SouthAtlanticFisheryManagementCouncil,1930’sto1985
Hudson2014
SEDAR41-DW26 SEDAR41AtlanticRedSnapperandGrayTriggerfishDataWorkshopHistoricalPhotographsofFor-HireVessels1930’sto1985
Hudson2014
SEDAR41-DW27 Redsnapperminiseasonad-hocworkinggroupreport
RedSnapperMiniSeasonAd-hocGroup2014
SEDAR41-DW28 RedSnapperLutjanuscampechanusinGulfofMexicoversussoutheastUSAtlanticOceanwaters:gapsinknowledgeandimplicationsformanagement
Rindoneetal.2014
SEDAR41-DW29 Discardsofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fortheheadboatfisheryintheUSSouthAtlantic**SeeSEDAR41-AW01forupdatedHBdiscardsWP
FEB-NMFS2014
SEDAR41-DW30 Discardsofgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)fortheheadboatfisheryintheUSSouthAtlantic**SeeSEDAR41-AW02forupdatedHBdiscardsWP
FEB-NMFS2014
SEDAR41-DW31 RedSnapperPreliminaryGeneticAnalysisTemporalGeneticDiversityTrendsintheSouthAtlanticBight
O’DonnellandDarden2014
SEDAR41-DW32 SCDNRCharterboatLogbookProgramData,1993-2013
Hiltz2014
SEDAR41-DW33 UPDATED:SizeDistribution,ReleaseCondition,andEstimatedDiscardMortalityofRedSnapperObservedinFor-HireRecreationalFisheriesintheSouthAtlantic
Saulsetal.2015
SEDAR41-DW34 UPDATED:SizeDistribution,ReleaseCondition,andEstimatedDiscardMortalityofGrayTriggerfishObservedinFor-HireRecreationalFisheriesintheSouthAtlantic
Saulsetal.2015
SEDAR41-DW35 UPDATED:MarineResourcesMonitoring,AssessmentandPredictionProgram:ReportonAtlanticRedSnapper,Lutjanuscampechanus,LifeHistoryfortheSEDAR41DataWorkshop
Whiteetal.2014Wyanskietal.2015
SEDAR41-DW36 UPDATED:DiscardsofRedSnapperCalculatedforCommercialVesselswithFederalFishingPermitsintheUSSouthAtlantic
McCarthy2015
SEDAR41-DW37 UPDATED:CalculatedDiscardsofGrayTriggerfishfromUSSouthAtlanticCommercialFishingVessels
McCarthy2015
SEDAR41-DW38 Historiccatchofredsnapperbyheadboatsthroughhistoricphotographanalysis
Grayetal.2014
SEDAR41-DW39 Indexreportcards IndexWorkingGroup2014
SEDAR41-DW40 ProblemswithHeadboatIndexofAbundanceConfoundsUseinSEDAR41RedSnapper
Nelsonetal.2014
SEDAR41-DW41 CommercialFishingTargetingChanges Fex2014SEDAR41-DW42 NEW:SouthAtlanticRedSnapper(Lutjanus
campechanus)monitoringinFlorida:Revisedrecreationalprivateboatmodeestimatesfor2012and2013mini-seasons,andnewprivateboatmodeestimatesforthe2014mini-season
Sauls2015
SEDAR41-DW43 NEW:HookSelectivityingraytriggerfishobservedinthefor-hirefisheryofftheAtlanticcoastofFlorida
GrayandSauls2015
SEDAR41-DW44 NEW:StandardizedvideocountsofSoutheastU.S.Atlanticgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)fromtheSoutheastReefFishSurvey
Ballewetal.2015
SEDAR41-DW45 NEW:StandardizedvideocountsofSoutheastU.S.Atlanticredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fromtheSoutheastReefFishSurvey
Ballewetal.2015
SEDAR41-DW46 NEW:HeadboatDataEvaluation NMFS-SEFSC2015SEDAR41-DW47 NEW:DevelopmentofanageingerrormatrixforU.S.
graytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)SFB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-DW48 NEW:DevelopmentofanageingerrormatrixforU.S.redsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)
SFB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-DW49 NEW:Estimatesofreproductiveactivityinredsnapperbysize,season,andtimeofdaywithnonlinearmodels
Klibansky2015
SEDAR41-DW50 NEW:HookSelectivityinredsnapperobservedinthefor-hirefisheryofftheAtlanticcoastofFlorida
GrayandSauls2015
SEDAR41-DW51 NEW:SERFSChevronTrapRedSnapperIndexofAbundance:AnInvestigationoftheUtilityofHistorical(1990-2009)ChevronTrapCatchData
Ballenger2015
SEDAR41-DW52 NEW:GrayTriggerfishFishery-IndependentIndexofAbundanceinUSSouthAtlanticWatersBasedonaChevronTrapSurvey(1990-2014)
BallengerandSmart2015
SEDAR41-DW53 NEW:RedSnapperFishery-IndependentIndexofAbundanceinUSSouthAtlanticWatersBasedonaChevronTrapSurvey(2005-2014)
BallengerandSmart2015
SEDAR41-DW54 NEW:RedSnapperFishery-IndependentIndexofAbundanceinUSSouthAtlanticWatersBasedonaChevronTrapSurvey(2010-2014)
BallengerandSmart2015
DocumentsPreparedfortheAssessmentWorkshop
SEDAR41-AW01 AddendumtoSEDAR41-DW29:Discardsofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fortheheadboatfisheryintheUSSouthAtlantic
FEB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-AW02 AddendumtoSEDAR41-DW30:Discardsofgraytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)fortheheadboatfisheryintheUSSouthAtlantic
FEB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-AW03 SouthAtlanticU.S.redsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)ageandlengthcompositionfromtherecreationalfisheries
FEB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-AW04 SouthAtlanticU.S.graytriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)ageandlengthcompositionfromtherecreationalfisheries
FEB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-AW05 CommercialageandlengthcompositionweightingsforAtlanticRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)
SFB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-AW06 CommercialageandlengthcompositionweightingsforAtlanticGrayTriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)
SFB-NMFS2015
SEDAR41-AW07 AddendumtoSEDAR41-DW17:EstimatesofHistoricRecreationalLandingsofRedSnapperintheSouthAtlanticUsingtheFHWARCensusMethod
Brennan2015
SEDAR41-AW08 SouthAtlanticU.S.redsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)catchcurveanalysis
SFB-NMFS2015
DocumentsPreparedfortheReviewWorkshop
SEDAR41-RW01 AddendumtoSEDAR41-DW16:ReportonLifeHistoryofSouthAtlanticGrayTriggerfish,Balistescapriscus,fromFishery-IndependentSources:UPDATEonanalysesofmaturity,spawningfraction,andsexratio
Kolmosetal.2016
SEDAR41-RW02 Agestructuredproductionmodel(ASPM)forU.S.SouthAtlanticRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)
SFB-NMFS2016
SEDAR41-RW03 Agestructuredproductionmodel(ASPM)forU.S.SouthAtlanticGrayTriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)
SFB-NMFS2016
SEDAR41-RW04 RedSnapper:AdditionalBAMdiagnostics,analyses,andcode
SFB-NMFS2016
SEDAR41-RW05 ModelDiagnosticsandSourceCodeforSEDAR41GrayTriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)BenchmarkStockAssessment
SFB-NMFS2016
SEDAR41-RW06 SEDAR41:PublicComments VariousAuthors
FinalAssessmentReports
SEDAR41-SAR1 AssessmentofRedSnapperintheUSSouthAtlantic TobepreparedbySEDAR41
SEDAR41-SAR2 AssessmentofGrayTriggerfishintheUSSouthAtlantic
TobepreparedbySEDAR41
ReferenceDocumentsSEDAR41-RD01 ListofdocumentsandworkingpapersforSEDAR32
(SouthAtlanticBluelineTilefishandGrayTriggerfish)–alldocumentsavailableontheSEDARwebsite.
SEDAR32
SEDAR41-RD02 ListofdocumentsandworkingpapersforSEDAR9(GulfofMexicoGrayTriggerfish,GreaterAmberjack,andVermilionSnapper)–alldocumentsavailableontheSEDARwebsite.
SEDAR9
SEDAR41-RD03 2011GulfofMexicoGrayTriggerfishUpdateAssessment
SEDAR2011
SEDAR41-RD04 ListofdocumentsandworkingpapersforSEDAR24(SouthAtlanticredsnapper)–alldocumentsavailableontheSEDARwebsite.
SEDAR24
SEDAR41-RD05 ListofdocumentsandworkingpapersforSEDAR31(GulfofMexicoredsnapper)–alldocumentsavailableontheSEDARwebsite.
SEDAR31
SEDAR41-RD06 ListofdocumentsandworkingpapersforSEDAR15(SouthAtlanticredsnapperandgreateramberjack)–alldocumentsavailableontheSEDARwebsite.
SEDAR15
SEDAR41-RD07 2009GulfofMexicoredsnapperupdateassessment SEDAR2009SEDAR41-RD08 ListofdocumentsandworkingpapersforSEDAR7
(GulfofMexicoredsnapper)–alldocumentsavailableontheSEDARwebsite.
SEDAR7
SEDAR41-RD09 SEDAR24SouthAtlanticRedSnapper:managementquantitiesandprojectionsrequestedbytheSSCandSERO
NMFS-SustainableFisheriesBranch2010
SEDAR41-RD10 Totalremovalsofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)in2012fromtheUSSouthAtlantic
NMFS-SustainableFisheriesBranch2013
SEDAR41-RD11 Amendment17AtotheFisheryManagementPlanfortheSnapperGrouperFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticRegion
SAFMC2010
SEDAR41-RD12 Amendment28totheFisheryManagementPlanfortheSnapperGrouperFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticRegion
SAFMC2013
SEDAR41-RD13 Totalremovalsofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)in2013fromtheU.S.SouthAtlantic
NMFS-SustainableFisheriesBranch2014
SEDAR41-RD14 SouthAtlanticredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)monitoringinFloridaforthe2012season
Saulsetal.2013
SEDAR41-RD15 SouthAtlanticredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)monitoringinFloridaforthe2013season
Saulsetal.2014
SEDAR41-RD16 AdirectedstudyoftherecreationalredsnapperfisheriesintheGulfofMexicoalongtheWestFloridashelf
Saulsetal.2014
SEDAR41-RD17 Usinggeneralizedlinearmodelstoestimateselectivityfromshort-termrecoveriesoftaggedreddrumSciaenopsocellatus:Effectsofgear,fate,andregulationperiod
Bacheleretal.2009
SEDAR41-RD18 Directestimatesofgearselectivityfrommultipletaggingexperiments
MyersandHoenig1997
SEDAR41-RD19 Examiningtheutilityofalternativevideomonitoringmetricsforindexingreeffishabundance
Schoberndetal.2014
SEDAR41-RD20 AnevaluationandpoweranalysisoffisheryindependentreeffishsamplingintheGulfofMexicoandU.S.SouthAtlantic
Conn2011
SEDAR41-RD21 Consultant’sReport:SummaryoftheMRFSS/MRIPCalibrationWorkshop
Boreman2012
SEDAR41-RD22 2013SouthAtlanticRedSnapperAnnualCatchLimitandSeasonLengthProjections
SERO2013
SEDAR41-RD23 SoutheastReefFishSurveyVideoIndexDevelopmentWorkshop
BachelerandCarmichael2014
SEDAR41-RD24 ObserverCoverageofthe2010-2011GulfofMexicoReefFishFishery
Scott-DentonandWilliams
SEDAR41-RD25 CircleHookRequirementsintheGulfofMexico:ApplicationinRecreationalFisheriesandEffectivenessforConservationofReefFishes
SaulsandAyala2012
SEDAR41-RD26 GADNRMarineSportfishCarcassRecoveryProject Harrell2013SEDAR41-RD27 CatchCharacterizationandDiscardswithinthe
SnapperGrouperVerticalHook-and-LineFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticUnitedStates
GulfandSouthAtlanticFisheriesFoundation2008
SEDAR41-RD28 AContinuationofCatchCharacterizationandDiscardswithintheSnapperGrouperVerticalHook-and-LineFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticUnitedStates
GulfandSouthAtlanticFisheriesFoundation2010
SEDAR41-RD29 ContinuationofCatchCharacterizationandDiscardswithintheSnapperGrouperVerticalHook-and-LineFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticUnitedStates
GulfandSouthAtlanticFisheriesFoundation2013
SEDAR41-RD30 Amendment1andEnvironmentalAssessmentandRegulatoryImpactReviewtotheFishery
SAFMC1988
ManagementPlanfortheSnapperGrouperFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticRegion
SEDAR41-RD31 FinalRuleforAmendment1totheFisheryManagementPlanfortheSnapperGrouperFisheryoftheSouthAtlanticRegion
FederalRegister1989
SEDAR41-RD32 PopulationStructureandGeneticDiversityofRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)intheU.S.SouthAtlanticandConnectivitywithRedSnapperintheGulfofMexico
GoldandPortnoy2013
SEDAR41-RD33 OogenesisandfecunditytypeofGulfofMexicograytriggerfishreflectswarmwaterenvironmentalandparentalcare
LangandFitzhugh2014
SEDAR41-RD34 Depth-relatedDistributionofPostjuvenileRedSnapperinSoutheasternU.S.AtlanticOceanWaters:OntogeneticPatternsandImplicationsforManagement
Mitchelletal.2014
SEDAR41-RD35 GrayTriggerfishAgeWorkshop Potts2013SEDAR41-RD36 Age,Growth,andReproductionofGrayTriggerfish
BalistescapriscusOfftheSoutheasternU.S.AtlanticCoast
Kelly2014
SEDAR41-RD37 AssessmentofGeneticStockStructureofGrayTriggerfish(Balistescapriscus)inU.S.WatersoftheGulfofMexicoandSouthAtlanticRegions
SaillantandAntoni2014
SEDAR41-RD38 GeneticVariationofGrayTriggerfishinU.S.WatersoftheGulfofMexicoandWesternAtlanticOceanasInferredfromMitochondrialDNASequences
Antonietal.2011
SEDAR41-RD39 CharacterizationoftheU.S.GulfofMexicoandSouthAtlanticPenaeidandRockShrimpFisheriesBasedonObserverData
Scott-Dentonetal.2012
SEDAR41-RD40 Doeshooktypeinfluencethecatchrate,size,andinjuryofgrouperinaNorthCarolinacommercialfishery
BachelerandBuckel2004
SEDAR41-RD41 FishesassociatedwithNorthCarolinashelf-edgehardbottomsandinitialassessmentofaproposedmarineprotectedarea
QuattriniandRoss2006
SEDAR41-RD42 Growthofgreytriggerfish,Balistescapriscus,basedongrowthchecksofthedorsalspine
Ofori-Danson1989
SEDAR41-RD43 AgeValidationandGrowthofGrayTriggerfish,Balistescapriscus,IntheNorthernGulfofMexico
Fioramonti2012
SEDAR41-RD44 AreviewofthebiologyandfisheryforGrayTriggerfish,Balistescapriscus,intheGulfofMexico
HarperandMcClellan1997
SEDAR41-RD45 Stockstructureofgraytriggerfish,Balistescapriscus,onmultiplespatialscalesintheGulfofMexico
Ingram2001
SEDAR41-RD46 EvaluationoftheEfficacyoftheCurrentMinimumSizeRegulationforSelectedReefFishBasedonReleaseMortalityandFishPhysiology
BurnsandBrown-Peterson2008
SEDAR41-RD47 PopulationStructureofRedSnapperfromtheGulfofMexicoasInferredfromAnalysisofMitochondrialDNA
Goldetal.1997
SEDAR41-RD48 SuccessfulDiscriminationUsingOtolithMicrochemistryAmongSamplesofRedSnapperLutjanuscampechanusfromArtificialReefsandSamplesofL.campechanusTakenfromNearbyOilandGasPlatforms
Nowlingetal.2011
SEDAR41-RD49 PopulationStructureandVariationinRedSnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)fromtheGulfofMexicoandAtlanticCoastofFloridaasDeterminedfromMitochondrialDNAControlRegionSequence
Garberetal.2003
SEDAR41-RD50 PopulationassessmentoftheredsnapperfromthesoutheasternUnitedStates
Manoochetal.1998
SEDAR41-RD51 OtolithMicrochemicalFingerprintsofAge-0RedSnapper,Lutjanuscampechanus,fromtheNorthernGulfofMexico
Pattersonetal.1998
SEDAR41-RD52 ImplicationsofreeffishmovementfromunreportedartificialreefsitesinthenorthernGulfofMexico
Addisetal.2013
SEDAR41-RD53 Evaluatingthepredictiveperformanceofempiricalestimatorsofnaturalmortalityrateusinginformationonover200fishspecies
Thenetal.2014
SEDAR41-RD54 Lengthselectivityofcommercialfishtrapsassessedfrominsitucomparisonswithstereo-video:Isthereevidenceofsamplingbias?
Langloisetal.2015
SEDAR41-RD55 MRIPCalibrationWorkshopII–FinalReport CarmichaelandVanVorhees(eds.)2015
SEDAR41-RD56 TotalRemovalsofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)in2014fromtheU.S.SouthAtlantic
SEFSC2015
SEDAR41-RD57 Assessingreproductiveresilience:anexamplewithSouthAtlanticredsnapperLutjanuscampechanus
Lowerre-Barbiereetal.2015
SEDAR41-RD58 OverviewofsamplinggearsandstandardprotocolsusedbytheSoutheastReefFishSurveyanditspartners
Smartetal.2014
SEDAR41-RD59 MRIPTransitionPlanfortheFishingEffortSurvey AtlanticandGulfSubgroupoftheMRIPTransitionTeam2015
SEDAR41-RD60 TechnicaldocumentationoftheBeaufortAssessmentModel(BAM)
WilliamsandShertzer2015
SEDAR41-RD61 StockAssessmentofRedSnapperintheGulfofMexico1872-2013,withProvisional2014Landings:SEDARUpdateAssessment
Cass-Calayetal.2015
SEDAR41-RD62 ExcerptfromtheDecember2013SAFMCSEDARCommitteeMinutes(pages11-21whereSEDAR41ToRwerediscussed)
SAFMCSEDARCommittee
SEDAR41-RD63 Populationstructureofredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)inU.S.watersofthewesternAtlanticOceanandthenortheasternGulfofMexico
Hollenbecketal.2015
SEDAR41-RD64 SEDAR31-AW04:TheEffectofHookTypeonRedSnapperCatch
SaulandWalter2013
SEDAR41-RD65 SEDAR31-AW12:Estimationofhookselectivityonredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)duringafisheryindependentsurveyofnaturalreefsintheGulfofMexico
Pollacketal.2013
SEDAR41-RD66 EffectofCircleHookSizeonReefFishCatchRates,SpeciesComposition,andSelectivityintheNorthernGulfofMexicoRecreationalFishery
Pattersonetal.2012
SEDAR41-RD67 Effectoftrawlingonjuvenileredsnapper(Lutjanuscampechanus)habitatselectionandlifehistoryparameters
Wellsetal.2008
SEDAR41-RD68 SEDAR24-AW05:SelectivityofredsnapperinthesoutheastU.S.Atlantic:dome-shapedorflattopped?
SFB-SEFSC2010
SEDAR41-RD69 Hierarchicalanalysisofmultiplenoisyabundanceindices
Conn2010
SEDAR41-RD70 Dataweightinginstatisticalfisheriesstockassessmentmodels
Francis2011
SEDAR41-RD71 CorrigendumtoFrancis2011paper FrancisSEDAR41-RD72 Quantifyingannualvariationincatchabilityfor
commercialandresearchfishingFrancisetal.2003
SEDAR41-RD73 Evolutionaryassemblyrulesforfishlifehistories Charnovetal.2012SEDAR41-RD74 User’sGuideforASPICSuite,version7:AStock-
ProductionModelIncorporatingCovariatesandauxiliaryprograms
Prager2015
SEDAR41-RD75 StandingandSpecialReefFishSSC,September2015MeetingSummary(seepages4-7forSEDAR43review)
GulfofMexicoStandingandSpecialReefFishSSC
SEDAR41-RD76 StandingandSpecialReefFishSSC,January2016MeetingSummary(seepages2-7forSEDAR43review)
GulfofMexicoStandingandSpecialReefFishSSC
SEDAR41-RD77 SEDAR43GulfofMexicoGrayTriggerfishStockAssessmentReport
SEDAR43
SEDAR41-RD78 Reviewof2014SEDAR31GulfofMexicoRedSnapperUpdateAssessment
GulfofMexicoStandingandSpecialReefFishSSC
SEDAR41-RD79 Influenceofsoaktimeandfishaccumulationoncatchesofreeffishesinamultispeciestrapsurvey
Bacheleretal.2013
Additionalpapers:
Aanes,S.,andJ.H.Vølstad.2015.Efficientstatisticalestimatorsandsamplingstrategiesforestimatingtheagecompositionoffish.CanadianJournalofFisheriesandAquaticSciences,72:938–953.
Anderson,B.,E.Borgonovo,M.GaleottiandR.Roson.2011.Uncertaintyinintegratedassessment
modelling:Canglobalsensitivityanalysisbeofhelp?WorkingPaperSeries.WorkingPaper52.ISSN1973-0381.IEFE-TheCenterforResearchonEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicyatBocconiUniversity.Thispapercanbedownloadedatwww.iefe.unibocconi.it
Kaufman,L.S.1983.EffectsofHurricaneAllenonreeffishassemblagesnearDiscoveryBay,Jamaica.
CoralReefs.2:43–47.Saltelli,A.,andP.Annoni.2010,Howtoavoidaperfunctorysensitivityanalysis.Environmental
Modelling&Software25:1508–1517.Saltelli,A.,M.Ratto,T.Andres,F.Campolongo,J.Cariboni,D.Gatelli,M.Saisana,andS.Tarantola.
2008.GlobalSensitivityAnalysis-ThePrimer.JohnWiley&Sons.Chichester.
Appendix2:CIEStatementofWork
ExternalIndependentPeerReviewbytheCenterforIndependentExperts
SEDAR41SouthAtlanticRedSnapperandGrayTriggerfishAssessmentReviewWorkshop
ScopeofWorkandCIEProcess:TheNationalMarineFisheriesService’s(NMFS)OfficeofScienceandTechnologycoordinatesandmanagesacontractprovidingexternalexpertisethroughtheCenterforIndependentExperts(CIE)toconductindependentpeerreviewsofNMFSscientificprojects.TheStatementofWork(SoW)describedhereinwasestablishedbytheNMFSProjectContactandContractingOfficer’sTechnicalRepresentative(COTR),andreviewedbyCIEforcompliancewiththeirpolicyforprovidingindependentexpertisethatcanprovideimpartialandindependentpeerreviewwithoutconflictsofinterest.CIEreviewersareselectedbytheCIESteeringCommitteeandCIECoordinationTeamtoconducttheindependentpeerreviewofNMFSscienceincompliancethepredeterminedTermsofReference(ToRs)ofthepeerreview.EachCIErevieweriscontractedtodeliveranindependentpeerreviewreporttobeapprovedbytheCIESteeringCommitteeandthereportistobeformattedwithcontentrequirementsasspecifiedinAnnex1.ThisSoWdescribestheworktasksanddeliverablesoftheCIEreviewerforconductinganindependentpeerreviewofthefollowingNMFSproject.FurtherinformationontheCIEprocesscanbeobtainedfromwww.ciereviews.org.ProjectDescription:SEDAR41willbeacompilationofdata,anassessmentofthestocks,andCIEassessmentreviewconductedforSouthAtlanticredsnapperandgraytriggerfish.ThereviewworkshopprovidesanindependentpeerreviewofSEDARstockassessments.Thetermreviewisappliedbroadly,asthereviewpanelmayrequestadditionalanalyses,errorcorrectionsandsensitivityrunsoftheassessmentmodelsprovidedbytheassessmentpanel.ThereviewpanelisultimatelyresponsibleforensuringthatthebestpossibleassessmentisprovidedthroughtheSEDARprocess.ThestocksassessedthroughSEDAR41arewithinthejurisdictionoftheSouthAtlanticFisheriesManagementCouncilandthestatesofFlorida,Georgia,SouthCarolina,andNorthCarolina.TheTermsofReference(ToRs)ofthepeerreviewareattachedinAnnex2.ThetentativeagendaofthepanelreviewmeetingisattachedinAnnex3.RequirementsforCIEReviewers:ThreeCIEreviewersshallconductanimpartialandindependentpeerreviewinaccordancewiththeSoWandToRsherein.CIEreviewersshallhaveworkingknowledgeexpertiseinstockassessment,statistics,fisheriesscience,andmarinebiologysufficienttocompletetheprimarytaskofprovidingpeer-reviewadviceincompliancewiththeworkshopTermsofReference.EachCIEreviewer’sdutiesshallnotexceedamaximumof14daystocompleteallworktasksofthepeerreviewdescribedherein.LocationofPeerReview:EachCIEreviewershallconductanindependentpeerreviewduringthepanelreviewmeetingscheduledinCharleston,SCduringMarch15-18,2016.StatementofTasks:EachCIEreviewersshallcompletethefollowingtasksinaccordancewiththeSoWandScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverablesherein.PriortothePeerReview:UponcompletionoftheCIEreviewerselectionbytheCIESteeringCommittee,theCIEshallprovidetheCIEreviewerinformation(fullname,title,affiliation,country,address,email)totheCOTR,whoforwardsthisinformationtotheNMFSProjectContactnolaterthedatespecifiedintheScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverables.TheCIEisresponsibleforprovidingtheSoWandToRstotheCIEreviewers.TheNMFSProjectContactisresponsibleforprovidingtheCIEreviewerswiththe
backgrounddocuments,reports,foreignnationalsecurityclearance,andotherinformationconcerningpertinentmeetingarrangements.TheNMFSProjectContactisalsoresponsibleforprovidingtheChairacopyoftheSoWinadvanceofthepanelreviewmeeting.AnychangestotheSoWorToRsmustbemadethroughtheCOTRpriortothecommencementofthepeerreview.ForeignNationalSecurityClearance:WhenCIEreviewersparticipateduringapanelreviewmeetingatagovernmentfacility,theNMFSProjectContactisresponsibleforobtainingtheForeignNationalSecurityClearanceapprovalforCIEreviewerswhoarenon-UScitizens.Forthisreason,theCIEreviewersshallproviderequestedinformation(e.g.,firstandlastname,contactinformation,gender,birthdate,passportnumber,countryofpassport,traveldates,countryofcitizenship,countryofcurrentresidence,andhomecountry)totheNMFSProjectContactforthepurposeoftheirsecurityclearance,andthisinformationshallbesubmittedatleast30daysbeforethepeerreviewinaccordancewiththeNOAADeemedExportTechnologyControlProgramNAO207-12regulationsavailableattheDeemedExportsNAOwebsite:http://deemedexports.noaa.gov/http://deemedexports.noaa.gov/compliance_access_control_procedures/noaa-foreign-national-registration-system.htmlPre-reviewBackgroundDocuments:Twoweeksbeforethepeerreview,theNMFSProjectContactwillsend(byelectronicmailormakeavailableatanFTPsite)totheCIEreviewersthenecessarybackgroundinformationandreportsforthepeerreview.Inthecasewherethedocumentsneedtobemailed,theNMFSProjectContactwillconsultwiththeCIELeadCoordinatoronwheretosenddocuments.CIEreviewersareresponsibleonlyforthepre-reviewdocumentsthataredeliveredtothereviewerinaccordancetotheSoWscheduleddeadlinesspecifiedherein.TheCIEreviewersshallreadalldocumentsinpreparationforthepeerreview.PanelReviewMeeting:EachCIEreviewershallconducttheindependentpeerreviewinaccordancewiththeSoWandToRs,andshallnotserveinanyotherroleunlessspecifiedherein.ModificationstotheSoWandToRscannotbemadeduringthepeerreview,andanySoWorToRsmodificationspriortothepeerreviewshallbeapprovedbytheCOTRandCIELeadCoordinator.EachCIEreviewershallactivelyparticipateinaprofessionalandrespectfulmannerasamemberofthemeetingreviewpanel,andtheirpeerreviewtasksshallbefocusedontheToRsasspecifiedherein.TheNMFSProjectContactisresponsibleforanyfacilityarrangements(e.g.,conferenceroomforpanelreviewmeetingsorteleconferencearrangements).TheNMFSProjectContactisresponsibleforensuringthattheChairunderstandsthecontractualroleoftheCIEreviewersasspecifiedherein.TheCIELeadCoordinatorcancontacttheProjectContacttoconfirmanypeerreviewarrangements,includingthemeetingfacilityarrangements.CIEreviewersshallconductanimpartialandindependentpeerreviewoftheassessmentinaccordancewiththeSoWandToRsherein.AdescriptionoftheSEDARReviewprocesscanbefoundintheSEDARPoliciesandProceduresdocument:http://sedarweb.org/docs/page/SEDARPoliciesandProcedures_Oct14_FINAL.pdf
TheCIEreviewersmaycontributetoaSummaryReportoftheReviewWorkshopproducedbytheWorkshopPanel.
ContractDeliverables-IndependentCIEPeerReviewReports:EachCIEreviewershallcompleteanindependentpeerreviewreportinaccordancewiththeSoW.EachCIEreviewershallcompletetheindependentpeerreviewaccordingtorequiredformatandcontentasdescribedinAnnex1.EachCIEreviewershallcompletetheindependentpeerreviewaddressingeachToRasdescribedinAnnex2.OtherTasks–ContributiontoSummaryReport:EachCIEreviewermayassisttheChairofthepanelreviewmeetingwithcontributionstotheSummaryReport,basedonthetermsofreferenceofthereview.EachCIEreviewerisnotrequiredtoreachaconsensus,andshouldprovideabriefsummaryofthereviewer’sviewsonthesummaryoffindingsandconclusionsreachedbythereviewpanelinaccordancewiththeToRs.SpecificTasksforCIEReviewers:ThefollowingchronologicallistoftasksshallbecompletedbyeachCIEreviewerinatimelymannerasspecifiedintheScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverables.
1) Conductnecessarypre-reviewpreparations,includingthereviewofbackgroundmaterialandreportsprovidedbytheNMFSProjectContactinadvanceofthepeerreview.
2) ParticipateduringthepanelreviewmeetingattheCharleston,SCduringMarch15-18,2016.3) ParticipateatthereviewmeetinginCharleston,SCduringMarch15-18,2016asspecified
herein,andconductanindependentpeerreviewinaccordancewiththeToRs(Annex2).4) NolaterthanApril112016,eachCIEreviewershallsubmitanindependentpeerreviewreport
addressedtothe“CenterforIndependentExperts,”andsenttoDr.ManojShivlani,CIELeadCoordinator,[email protected],andDr.DavidSampson,CIERegionalCoordinator,viaemailtodavid.sampson@oregonstate.edu.EachCIEreportshallbewrittenusingtheformatandcontentrequirementsspecifiedinAnnex1,andaddresseachToRinAnnex2.
ScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverables:CIEshallcompletethetasksanddeliverablesdescribedinthisSoWinaccordancewiththefollowingschedule.
February9,2016 CIEsendsreviewercontactinformationtotheCOTR,whothensendsthistotheNMFSProjectContact
March1,2016 NMFSProjectContactsendstheCIEReviewersthepre-reviewdocumentsMarch15–18,
2016Eachreviewerparticipatesandconductsanindependentpeerreviewduringthepanelreviewmeeting
April11,2016 CIEreviewerssubmitdraftCIEindependentpeerreviewreportstotheCIELeadCoordinatorandCIERegionalCoordinator
April25,2016 CIEsubmitsCIEindependentpeerreviewreportstotheCOTRMay2,2016 TheCOTRdistributesthefinalCIEreportstotheNMFSProjectContactand
regionalCenterDirectorModificationstotheStatementofWork:This‘TimeandMaterials’taskordermayrequireanupdateormodificationduetopossiblechangestothetermsofreferenceorscheduleofmilestonesresultingfromthefisherymanagementdecisionprocessoftheNOAALeadership,FisheryManagementCouncil,andCouncil’sSSCadvisorycommittee.ArequesttomodifythisSoWmustbeapprovedbytheContractingOfficeratleast15workingdayspriortomakinganypermanentchanges.TheContractingOfficerwillnotifytheCOTRwithin10workingdaysafterreceiptofallrequiredinformationofthedecisiononchanges.TheCOTRcanapprovechangestothemilestonedates,listofpre-reviewdocuments,andToRs
withintheSoWaslongastheroleandabilityoftheCIEreviewerstocompletethedeliverableinaccordancewiththeSoWisnotadverselyimpacted.TheSoWandToRsshallnotbechangedoncethepeerreviewhasbegun.AcceptanceofDeliverables:UponreviewandacceptanceoftheCIEindependentpeerreviewreportsbytheCIELeadCoordinator,RegionalCoordinator,andSteeringCommittee,thesereportsshallbesenttotheCOTRforfinalapprovalascontractdeliverablesbasedoncompliancewiththeSoWandToRs.AsspecifiedintheScheduleofMilestonesandDeliverables,theCIEshallsendviae-mailthecontractdeliverables(CIEindependentpeerreviewreports)totheCOTR(AllenShimadaatallen.shimada@noaa.gov.ApplicablePerformanceStandards:ThecontractissuccessfullycompletedwhentheCOTRprovidesfinalapprovalofthecontractdeliverables.Theacceptanceofthecontractdeliverablesshallbebasedonthreeperformancestandards:
(1) TheCIEreportshallcompletedwiththeformatandcontentinaccordancewithAnnex1,(2) TheCIEreportshalladdresseachToRasspecifiedinAnnex2,(3) TheCIEreportsshallbedeliveredinatimelymannerasspecifiedinthescheduleofmilestones
anddeliverables.
DistributionofApprovedDeliverables:UponacceptancebytheCOTR,theCIELeadCoordinatorshallsendviae-mailthefinalCIEreportsin*.PDFformattotheCOTR.TheCOTRwilldistributetheCIEreportstotheNMFSProjectContactandCenterDirector.SupportPersonnel:AllenShimadaNMFSOfficeofScienceandTechnology1315EastWestHwy,SSMC3,F/ST4,SilverSpring,[email protected]:301-427-8174ManojShivlani,CIELeadCoordinatorNorthernTaigaVentures,Inc.10600SW131stCourt,Miami,[email protected]:305-968-7136KeyPersonnel:
NMFSProjectContact:
JuliaByrdSEDARCoordinator4055FaberPlaceDrive,Suite201NorthCharleston,SC29405(843)[email protected]
Annex1:FormatandContentsofCIEIndependentPeerReviewReport
1. TheCIEindependentreportshallbeprefacedwithanExecutiveSummaryprovidingaconcisesummaryofthefindingsandrecommendations,andspecifywhetherthesciencereviewedisthebestscientificinformationavailable.
2. ThemainbodyofthereviewerreportshallconsistofaBackground,DescriptionoftheIndividualReviewer’sRoleintheReviewActivities,SummaryofFindingsforeachToRinwhichtheweaknessesandstrengthsaredescribed,andConclusionsandRecommendationsinaccordancewiththeToRs.
a. Reviewersshoulddescribeintheirownwordsthereviewactivitiescompletedduringthepanelreviewmeeting,includingprovidingabriefsummaryoffindings,ofthescience,conclusions,andrecommendations.
b. ReviewersshoulddiscusstheirindependentviewsoneachToRevenifthesewereconsistentwiththoseofotherpanelists,andespeciallywherethereweredivergentviews.
c. ReviewersshouldelaborateonanypointsraisedintheSummaryReportthattheyfeelmightrequirefurtherclarification.
d. ReviewersshallprovideacritiqueoftheNMFSreviewprocess,includingsuggestionsforimprovementsofbothprocessandproducts.
e. TheCIEindependentreportshallbeastand-alonedocumentforotherstounderstandtheweaknessesandstrengthsofthesciencereviewed,regardlessofwhetherornottheyreadthesummaryreport.TheCIEindependentreportshallbeanindependentpeerreviewofeachToRs,andshallnotsimplyrepeatthecontentsofthesummaryreport.
3. Thereviewerreportshallincludethefollowingappendices:
Appendix1:BibliographyofmaterialsprovidedforreviewAppendix2:AcopyoftheCIEStatementofWorkAppendix3:PanelMembershiporotherpertinentinformationfromthepanelreviewmeeting.
Annex2:TermsofReferenceforthePeerReview
SEDAR41SouthAtlanticRedSnapperandGrayTriggerfishAssessmentReviewWorkshop
11. Evaluatethedatausedintheassessment,includingdiscussionofthestrengthsandweaknessesofdatasourcesanddecisions,andconsiderthefollowing:
a) AredatadecisionsmadebytheDWandAWsoundandrobust?b) Aredatauncertaintiesacknowledged,reported,andwithinnormalorexpectedlevels?c) Aredataappliedproperlywithintheassessmentmodel?d) Areinputdataseriesreliableandsufficienttosupporttheassessmentapproachand
findings?12. Evaluateanddiscussthestrengthsandweaknessesofthemethodsusedtoassessthestock,
takingintoaccounttheavailabledata,andconsideringthefollowing:a) Aremethodsscientificallysoundandrobust?
b) Areassessmentmodelsconfiguredproperlyandusedconsistentwithstandardpractices?
c) Arethemethodsappropriatefortheavailabledata?13. Evaluatetheassessmentfindingsandconsiderthefollowing:
a) Areabundance,exploitation,andbiomassestimatesreliable,consistentwithinputdataandpopulationbiologicalcharacteristics,andusefultosupportstatusinferences?
b) Isthestockoverfished?Whatinformationhelpsyoureachthisconclusion?c) Isthestockundergoingoverfishing?Whatinformationhelpsyoureachthisconclusion?d) Isthereaninformativestockrecruitmentrelationship?Isthestockrecruitmentcurve
reliableandusefulforevaluationofproductivityandfuturestockconditions?e) Arethequantitativeestimatesofthestatusdeterminationcriteriaforthisstock
reliable?Ifnot,arethereotherindicatorsthatmaybeusedtoinformmanagersaboutstocktrendsandconditions?
14. Evaluatethestockprojections,includingdiscussingstrengthsandweaknesses,andconsiderthefollowing:
a) Arethemethodsconsistentwithacceptedpracticesandavailabledata?b) Arethemethodsappropriatefortheassessmentmodelandoutputs?c) Aretheresultsinformativeandrobust,andaretheyusefultosupportinferencesof
probablefutureconditions?d) Arekeyuncertaintiesacknowledged,discussed,andreflectedintheprojectionresults?
15. Considerhowuncertaintiesintheassessment,andtheirpotentialconsequences,areaddressed.a) Commentonthedegreetowhichmethodsusedtoevaluateuncertaintyreflectand
capturethesignificantsourcesofuncertaintyinthepopulation,datasources,andassessmentmethods.
b) Ensurethattheimplicationsofuncertaintyintechnicalconclusionsareclearlystated.16. ConsidertheresearchrecommendationsprovidedbytheDataandAssessmentworkshopsand
makeanyadditionalrecommendationsorprioritizationswarranted.a) Clearlydenoteresearchandmonitoringthatcouldimprovethereliabilityof,and
informationprovidedby,futureassessments.b) ProviderecommendationsonpossiblewaystoimprovetheSEDARprocess.
17. Considerwhetherthestockassessmentconstitutesthebestscientificinformationavailableusingthefollowingcriteriaasappropriate:relevance,inclusiveness,objectivity,transparency,timeliness,verification,validation,andpeerreviewoffisherymanagementinformation.
18. CompareandcontrastassessmentuncertaintiesbetweentheGulfofMexicoandSouthAtlanticstocks.
19. Provideguidanceonkeyimprovementsindataormodelingapproacheswhichshouldbeconsideredwhenschedulingthenextassessment.
20. PrepareaPeerReviewSummarysummarizingthePanel’sevaluationofthestockassessmentandaddressingeachTermofReference.Developalistoftaskstobecompletedfollowingtheworkshop.CompleteandsubmitthePeerReviewSummaryReportinaccordancewiththeprojectguidelines.
Annex3:TentativeAgenda
SEDAR41SouthAtlanticRedSnapperandGrayTriggerfishAssessmentReviewWorkshop
Charleston,SC
March15-18,2016
Tuesday
8:30a.m. Convene 8:30a.m.–9:00a.m. IntroductionsandOpeningRemarks
-AgendaReview,TOR,TaskAssignmentsCoordinatorChair
9:00a.m.–12:00p.m. AssessmentPresentationandDiscussion(RS*)
TBD
12:00p.m.–1:30p.m. LunchBreak 1:30p.m.-3:30p.m. PanelDiscussion
-AssessmentData&Methods-Identifyadditionalanalyses,sensitivities,corrections
Chair
3:30p.m.–3:45p.m. Break 3:30p.m.-5:00p.m. PanelDiscussion
-ContinuedeliberationsChair
5:00p.m.–6:00p.m. PanelWorkSession Chair
TuesdayGoals:InitialRS*presentationcompleted,sensitivitiesandmodificationsidentified.
Wednesday
Tuesday
8:30a.m.–12:00p.m. AssessmentPresentationandDiscussion(GTF**)
TBD
12:00p.m.–1:30p.m. LunchBreak
1:30p.m.-3:30p.m. PanelDiscussion-AssessmentData&Methods-Identifyadditionalanalyses,sensitivities,corrections
Chair
3:30p.m.–3:45p.m. Break 3:30p.m.-5:00p.m. PanelDiscussion
-ContinuedeliberationsChair
5:00p.m.–6:00p.m. PanelWorkSession Chair
WednesdayGoals:InitialGTF**presentationcompleted,sensitivitiesandmodificationsidentified.
Thursday
8:30a.m.–12:00p.m. PanelDiscussion-Reviewadditionalanalyses,sensitivities
Chair
12:00p.m.–1:30p.m. LunchBreak
1:30p.m.-3:30p.m. PanelDiscussion-Continuedeliberations
Chair
3:30p.m.–3:45p.m. Break 3:45p.m.-5:00p.m. PanelDiscussion
-ConsensusrecommendationsandcommentsChair
5:00p.m.–6:00p.m. PanelWorkSession Chair
ThursdayGoals:Finalsensitivitiesidentified,preferredmodelsselected,projectionapproachesapproved,Summaryreportdraftsbegun.
Friday
8:30a.m.–10:30a.m. PanelDiscussion-Reviewadditionalanalyses,finalsensitivities-Projectionsreviewed.
Chair
10:30a.m.–10:45a.m. Break
10:45a.m.-1:00p.m. PanelDiscussionorWorkSession-Continuedeliberations
Chair
3:30p.m.–3:45p.m. Break 3:30p.m.-5:00p.m. PanelDiscussion
-ReviewConsensusReportsChair
1:00p.m. ADJOURN
FridayGoals:Completeassessmentworkanddiscussions.Finalresultsavailable.DraftSummaryReportreviewed.
*RS=SouthAtlanticredsnapper**GTF=SouthAtlanticgraytriggerfish
Appendix3:PanelMembership
Appointee Function AffiliationLuizBarbieri ReviewPanelChair SAFMCSSCSteveCadrin Reviewer SAFMCSSCChurchillGrimes Reviewer SAFMCSSCMikeArmstrong Reviewer CIEStephenSmith Reviewer CIEJonHelgeVolstad Reviewer CIE