SEDAR 47: Assessment Data and Methods. Comparison of data used in previous

Goliath Grouper Assessments

Joe O’Hop and Joseph Munyandorero

Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL

May 17, 2016

AdultGoliathGrouperaggrega0ngattheMG111bargewreckoffofJupiter,FLin65feetofwater.PhotobyMr.WaltStearns,UnderwaterJournal(hHp://www.waltstearns.com/underwaterjournal.html)

The prohibition on retention of Goliaths

•  TheCouncilswereevalua0ngtheirmanagementplansforreeffish,andamendmentswerebeingdevelopedtoadjustsizelimitsandmanagementgoals.

•  Overthecourseofthe1980s,amarkeddeclineinthenumbersandsizeofGoliathsinthecatchwasnotedandbroughttotheCouncils’aHen0on.

•  TheStateofFloridaprohibitedreten0onofGoliathscaughtinFloridawatersinFebruary,1990.TheCouncilstookthisac0onforfederalwatersinAugustandOctoberof1990

•  Alifehistorystudy(Bullocketal.1992)wasconductedtocharacterizeage,growth,andmaturity.

A data workshop, two assessments, and an update • SEDAR 3 (March 2003)

–  Data workshop concluded that data were insufficient to conduct a quantitative stock assessment, but survey data were subsequently discovered leading to the Review Panel recommending that an assessment should be attempted.

• SEDAR 6 (2006) –  Review workshop only to consider Goliath Grouper and Hogfish

assessments. –  First use of the “catch-free” model and relative benchmarks

• SEDAR 23 (2010) –  Data, Assessment, and Review Workshops, catch-free model used –  Review Panel rejected the assessment because it did not provide

absolute benchmarks (TORs)

•  FWC update (2015) –  Updated indices for the catch-free model.

• SEDAR 47 (2016) – in progress

Distribu0onofGoliaths

From Aquamaps

Gene0csofGoliaths•  Thereisdocumenta0onofgene0cdifferencesbetweenGoliathsinBelizeandFlorida,andBrazilandFlorida.

•  GoliathsinGulfofMexicoandtheSouthAtlan0cwatersbelongtoasinglestock.

•  Tringalietal.(inmanuscript)recentlylookedatthegene0csofGoliathsinFloridaanddevelopedananalysisofkinshipforthisgroup.TheconclusionsfromthisanalysiswerethatGoliathsintheSouthAtlan0cfromtheFloridaKeysnorthwardwereverycloselyrelated.KinshipamongGoliathsonFlorida’sGulfCoastwaslessstructured.Addi0onalworkisplanned.

Data Inputs for the models

• Basic Life history parameters –  Growth model (von Bertalannfy used, others possible) –  Length-weight conversion equation –  Natural mortality

•  Indices of abundance • Selectivities for indices of abundance • Specification of time intervals to track changes in

fishing mortality • Specification of a prior for the effect of the

moratorium on harvest (catch-free) • Estimates of catch, landings, and releases (SRA)

Natural Mortality Estimates - examples

Gag(S10SA)Gag(S10G)RedG(S19)

RedG(S12)

SnowyG(S4)

BlackG(S19)

GoliathG(S6)

GoliathG(S23)MuttonS(S15A)

RedS(S15)RedS(S7)

GoliathG(S47)

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

20 30 40 50 60

Naturalm

ortalitype

ryear

Maximumage(years)

SEDARassessmentsHoenig(1983;fishonly)Hoenig(1983;alltaxa)Hoenig"lm"(Thenetal.2015)Hoenig"nls"(Thenetal.2015Hoenigalltaxa+biascorr

Thereareseveralvaria0onsforthe“Hoenig”es0matorfornaturalmortality.Thedataforthe“Hoenig”es0mateswerefromcatchcurves,sothesearereallytotalmortalityes0mates(Z)whichapproximateMwhenpopula0onsarelightlyfished.Treatthemas“upperbounds”onMratherthanabsolutevalues.

MaximumAgeofGoliaths–37years(but…)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Panamagraysbysailfingrouper

graysbyrockhind

orange-spottedgrouperyellowfingrouper

yellow-edgedlyretailredhind

humpbackgrouperislandgrouper

blacksaddledcoralgrouperscamp

sawtailgrouperleopardgrouper

flagcabrillaconey

warsawgrouperspeckledhind

potatogrouperwhite-blotchedgrouper

redgrouperNassaugroupermottledgrouper

camouflagegroupergag

blackgroupergoliathgrouper

brown-marbledgroupersnowygrouper

yellowmouthgrouperdogtoothgrouper

duskygrouperyellowedgegrouper

Maximumage(years)

Fig. 2.6.2

Growth Curves (von Bertalannfy, non-linear fits)  Study L∞ (mm) k (year-1) t0 n Bullock et al. 1992 2006 0.126 -0.49 382 SEDAR 23 (and 47) 2220 0.094 -0.68 1405

Fig. 2.6.3

Length-weight Bullock et al. 1992 data            

dep_var n ln(a) a b r2  

gutted wt (kg) vs TL (mm) 402 -17.3423 2.94E-08 2.941 0.941  

whole wt (kg) vs TL (mm) 66 -18.1507 1.31E-08 3.056 0.964  

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200

TotalLength(inches)

Who

leWeig

ht(lb

s)

Who

leWeig

ht(kg)

TotalLength(cm)

observedpredicted99%upperlimit99%lowerlimit

OtherTopics•  Releasemortality–thoughttobelow(~5%)•  Reproduc0vestrategy–assumedgonochoris0c.

Protogynysuspected.•  Spawning–August-November,butchorusingac0vi0es

mayindicatethatac0vitybeginsinJuly.•  Femalesmatureat:120-135cm,ages6-7

Malesmatureat:110-115cm,ages4-6•  Fecundity–only2specimensworkedup.•  Sexra0o–appearstobe1:1atanysize/age.•  Spawningsitefidelitymaybehigh.•  Juvenilesu0lizemangrovehabitatsinestuaries.•  Adults/sub-adultsmoveoffshoretohigh-reliefhabitats

(andwrecksolenaHractmoreindividuals).

Length-frequencies

Reported U.S. commercial landings of Goliath Grouper

Fig. 3.1.1

U.S.BureauofCommercialFisheries,NMFSCommercialLandings,FloridaStateBoardofConserva=on,FLFishandWildlifeConserva=onCommission

Estimated U.S. recreational catch of Goliath Grouper. Most of the catch, particularly after 1989, was released.

Fig. 3.3.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Recreatio

nalTotalCatchofG

oliath

Group

ers(tho

usandsoffish)

Year

WestFlorida

EastFlorida

NMFSMarineRecrea=onalFisherySta=s=csSurvey,1981-2003,NMFSMarineRecrea=onalInforma=onProgram2004-2014

Es0ma0ngharvests•  Commerciallandings:TheSRAmodelmaysolvebeHerusingalonger0meseriesofremovals.Weusedthe0meseriesbackto1950whichwaseasilyavailable.Therewasconcernoverreportsfromapar0cularseafooddealer,andwedevelopedadjustmentfactorstoreducetheinfluenceofthisdealer’sreportsfrom1978-1984,andtoreducetheinfluenceofthecountylandingsfrom1964-1977ontheFloridaWestCoast.

•  Commercialdiscards:notes0mated.

Es0ma0ngharvests•  Recrea0onalcatches:catchwasdividedbyareafished.

Juvenilefishliveinestuarinehabitatspar0cularlywheretherearemangroves.Larger,adultfisharetypicallyfoundoffshoreinareasofhighrelief,thoughtheymayalsobecaughtaroundbridgesandotherareastheyfindsuitable.

•  Recrea0onallandingsbyarea(1981-1989):theavg.weightforestuarinefishusedtheobservedsizestructureintheEverglades.Avg.weightsforoffshorefishin1984-1988wereusedformissingweightdataortosubs0tuteforoutliers.

•  Recrea0onalreleasesbyarea:Weightsofestuarinefishreleasedusedthees0matedjuvenilesizestructure.Adultsizestructureinthereleasedcatchisnotknown.Asmallsampleofagedfishfromaresearchstudywasusedasaproxy.A5%releasemortalitywasassumedinordertoes0matethispor0onoftheharvest.

Selec0vitycurvesforrecrea0onalcatches

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Prop

ortio

n

Age(years)

EvergladesNationalPark- gammafittoAgedspecimensfromKoenigetal.(2007)

andBrusherandSchull(2009)[a100=1.79,cv=0.495)

observedpredicted

a100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Freq

uency(%

)

Age(years)

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0 5 10 15 20 25

Cumulativeprop

ortion

Age(years)

observedageproportionspredicted

a50 Logisticfittoobservedagesof22fishinspawningareasoff

PalmBeach,2012[a50=9.59,slope=1.342)

EstuarineFish

OffshoreFish

Figs.3.3.7,3.3.8,3.3.9

Es0matedTotalHarvest

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1950 1970 1990 2010

CommercialLandingsa

nd

Recreatio

nalH

arvests(land

ings+

5%deadreleases),kg

Year

ReportedLandings+deadreleases(5%)

AdjustedLandings+deadreleases(5%)

Fig.3.4.1

Indices used in various assessments

Index SEDAR6 SEDAR23 FWCUpdate SEDAR47

DeMaria √

Interviews √

ENP √ √ √ √

REEFSE √ √ √

REEFSW √

REEF(both,GGGCadded) √

MRFSS(PR,%posi0ves) √

MRFSS(WFL,offshorebt) √

MRFSS(EFL,offshorebt) √

MRFSS(WFL,estuarine) √

MRFSS(EFL,estuarine) √

MRFSS(offshorebt) √

MRFSS(estuarine) √

Table 4.1.1

REEFIndex

openbluecircles:siteswithoutGoliathsyellowdots:siteswithGoliathsatleastonceinayear.

REEFIndex

Habitatdescrip0on

REEFHabitatCode Haba New_Habb

Unknown 0 0 0*Mixed 1 1 5Highprofilereef,coralstructures4'ormoreaboveboHom 2 2 2Lowprofilereef,coralstructures<4'aboveboHom 3 3 3Slopingdrop-offintoopenwater 4 1 3Wall-asheardrop-offofover25'facingopenwater 5 2 2Ledge-asingleorfewsharpdropsinboHomtopographyof3'ormore 6 2 2Seagrass 7 1 1Sand 8 1 1Rubble 9 1 1Ar0ficial 10 4 4Openwater 11 1 1

a re-classification of habitat score used for REEF SE index in SEDAR 6 and REEF SE and SW in SEDAR 23 b re-classification of habitat score used for REEF FL index in SEDAR 47b re-classification of habitat score used for REEF FL index in SEDAR 47

Classifica0onofhabitatsfortheREEFsurveys.

Table4.1.1

REEFIndexTable4.1.2b.NumberofREEFsiteswithsurveydatausingvariouscriteria.

1994-2014

Criteria EastFloridaandFloridaKeys WestFlorida

Allsites*with6ormoreyearsofsurveys 173 41

Allsites*with6-9yearsofsurveys 46 23

SEDAR23**sitesdropped(

REEFIndexTable4.1.2d.REEFsitesinWestFloridawhereGoliathGrouperhavebeenobservedatleastonceandwith6ormoreyearswheresurveyswererecordedoverthe1994-20140meperiod.Indexincludedsiteswith10ormoreyearswheresurveyswereconductedforthe1999-20140meperiod.

Yearssurveyedandmax.abundancerank2

AbundanceRanksandno.surveysbyrank

Loca0on REEFgeozone

yearswithsurveys1

Numberofsurveys

1 1 2 2 2 29 9 0 0 0 09 9 0 0 1 13 5 0 5 0 4

0:Noneseen

1:Oneseen

2:2-10seen

3:11-100seen

4:101+seen

La0tudeDD

LongitudeDD

BlackBart(PanamaCity) 21010008 9 33 ---0--1-0000-0-0-----1 30 3 0 0 0 30.0607 -85.8238BridgeSpan14(PanamaCity) 21010009 7 13 ---0--0--00--0-0-----2 11 1 1 0 0 30.0715 -85.8146MissLouiseTugboat(Des0n) 21010027 6 13 ------00-0-10-------0- 6 7 0 0 0 30.3717 -86.4215USSOriskany 21010060 8 21 -------------02000000- 20 0 1 0 0 30.0426 -87.0066ClearwaterWreck 23010007 12 45 ---1--0-2323211-10--1- 15 9 19 2 0 27.9532 -83.1217DunedinReef 23010009 6 9 --0-0-------------2100 6 2 1 0 0 28.0570 -82.9108CableBarge(akaIndianShores) 23010013 8 15 ----1-22210------1-1-- 8 4 3 0 0 27.8567 -83.0292MastheadLedge 23010014 7 14 ----0---001---01-0---- 11 3 0 0 0 28.0623 -83.1907TugSheridan 23010016 10 25 ----0---222-----221212 8 5 12 0 0 27.8760 -83.1863RubeAllen(Pinellas#1) 23010018 13 43 ----0-0-1221-22221-02- 19 11 13 0 0 27.9267 -83.0233

REEFIndexSource levels Df Deviance

MeanDeviance

ΔMeanDeviance

%change Cum%

FullLoglikelihood

Δloglikelihood

-2Δloglikelihood df ProbHo AIC AICc

intercept 1 21024 15090.0 0.7177 -9803.2 -9803.2 36125.1 21024

REEF index

Fig.4.1.1a,b

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Standardized

Inde

x

nominalranks

SEDAR47FL

SEDAR23SEFL

Abundance Index – Everglades National Park Angler Survey (hurdle model – binomial and lognormal submodels)

Variable dffulllog

likelihoodΔlog

likelihood Chi-sq Chi-sqdf ProbHo AIC ΔAIC deviance MeanDevΔMeanDev

%change

193,576 -29573.1 59,148.3 59146.30.3055Year 193,536 -26385.9 3187.2 6374.5 40

Abundance Index – Everglades National Park Angler Survey

1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

010

2030

4050

Everglades National Park Angler Survey

Year

Gol

iath

Gro

uper

, Tot

al n

umbe

r cau

ght p

er 1

000

angl

er-h

ours

109

107

189

188

151

66117

9353 62 60

35 38 29 30

73

60 4721 98

241

210328

253146130

139198195

374388

346

534

735

459

284

29 2952 75

66109

107

189

18815166 117

9353626035382930

7360 4721

98241

210 328

253146130139

198195

374 3…

346

534

735

459

284

29295275

66

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Inde

xscaled

tom

ean

Year

EvergladesNationalParkAnglerSurveyStandardizedTotalCatchRatesofGoliathGrouperdeltamodel(binomialandlognormalsubmodels)

totaltrips=193,577

MRFSS/MRIP Index Estuarine Offshore

EastFlorida(Nassau-Miami-FLKeys)

WestFlorida(Collier-Levy)

EastFlorida(Nassau-Miami-FLKeys)

WestFlorida(Collier-Levy)

GOLIATHGROUPER GOLIATHGROUPER GOLIATHGROUPER GOLIATHGROUPERCOMMONSNOOK COMMONSNOOK GAG GAGGRAYSNAPPER GRAYSNAPPER GRAYSNAPPER GRAYSNAPPERREDDRUM REDDRUM REDGROUPER REDGROUPERGAG GAG WHITEGRUNT WHITEGRUNTSPOTTEDSEATROUT SPOTTEDSEATROUT SPANISHMACKEREL SPANISHMACKERELCREVALLEJACK CREVALLEJACK COMMONSNOOK COMMONSNOOKLADYFISH LADYFISH CREVALLEJACK CREVALLEJACKPINFISH PINFISH SPOTTEDSEATROUT SPOTTEDSEATROUTHARDHEADCATFISH HARDHEADCATFISH BLUERUNNER BLUERUNNER

GAFFTOPSAILCATFISH LADYFISH LADYFISHSHEEPSHEAD SHEEPSHEAD LANESNAPPER LANESNAPPERSPANISHMACKEREL SPANISHMACKEREL REDDRUM REDDRUM

SCALEDSARDINE PINFISH PINFISHBLUEFISH COBIA COBIAPIGFISH KINGMACKEREL KINGMACKERELBLACKDRUM GREATBARRACUDA GREATBARRACUDA

YELLOWTAILSNAPPER YELLOWTAILSNAPPERMUTTONSNAPPERBLACKGROUPERTARPONNURSESHARKBLUEFISHSHEEPSHEAD

MRFSS/MRIP Index - Estuarine

Variable levels DF DevianceMeanDeviance

%deviancereduc0on

Cum%

FullLikelihood

Chi-Square

Chi-squareDF Pr>ChiSqAIC

1 108075 6502.3 0.06017 . -3251.15. . . 6504.3

year1 108058 6200.7 0.05738 4.62 4.6 -3100.34 301.6 17

MRFSS/MRIP Index - Estuarine

MRFSS/MRIP Index - Offshore

Deviancetableforthegammasub-modeloftheposi=vecatchesofGoliaths.

Deviancetableforthebinomialsub-modelofthepropor=onposi=vecatchesofGoliaths.

Variable levels DF DevianceMean

Deviance%deviancereduc0on Cum%

FullLikelihood

Chi-Square

Chi-squareDF Pr>ChiSq AIC

1 59841 4338.1 0.07249. -2169.03. . . 4340.1

year 1 59824 4190.0 0.07004 3.39 3.4 -2095.01 148.0 17

MRFSS/MRIP Index - Offshore

Theindicesscaledtotheirmeans

0

1

2

3

4

5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IndexScaled

toM

ean

Year

ENP

MRFSS/MRIPEstuarine

0

1

2

3

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

IndexScaled

toM

ean

Year

REEFFL

MRFSS/MRIPOffshore

EstuarineIndices

OffshoreIndices

Fig.4.4.1a,b

MRFSS Index, SEDAR 23

0

1

2

3

4

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Inde

xscaled

tom

ean

Year

Proportionpositivesfinalmodelvariables:year,mode_fx,num_anglers

MRFSS Index, FWC update (hurdle model)

0

1

2

3

4

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Indexscaledtom

ean

Year

Proportionpositivesfinalmodelvariables:year,mode_fx,num_anglers

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Standardize

dCatchRates

Year

WFLoffshoreboatmodes

EFLoffshoreboatmodes

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Standardize

dCatchRates

Year

WFLestuarine

EFLestuarine

SEDAR 23 MRFSS Index, proportion positives

MRFSS Index comparison, FWC update

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Standardize

dCatchRates

Year

EvergladesNationalParkAnglerSurvey

MRFSS/MRIPWFLestuarine

MRFSS/MRIPEFLestuarine

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.019

72

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Standardize

dCatchRates

Year

MRFSS/MRIPWFLoffshoreboatmodes

MRFSS/MRIPEFLoffshoreboatmodes

REEFSEandFLKeyssites

DeMariaindex

MRFSS Index, replacement (combined coasts) 0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Inde

xscaled

toM

ean

Year

EastFLandKeys

WestFlorida

Estuarine,combined

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Inde

xscaled

toM

ean

Year

EastFLandKeys

WestFlorida

Offshore,combined