20150415 jacob chapman

Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:

Energy & Sustainability Research Division

Jacob Chapman

[email protected]

th April 2015

COUPLING MULTI-AGENT STOCHASTIC SIMULATION

• Jacob Chapman • Peer-Olaf Siebers • Darren Robinson

• The University of Nottingham



Jacob Chapman

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th April 2015

Building Simulation



Jacob Chapman

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th April 2015

The Performance Gap• Deviations between predicted and real world performance

• Construction materials used • workmanship • Uncertainties of model/ algorithms • Climate • Occupants

• Lead to stochastic models of behaviour • Generic method integrating them • Coupled with building simulation



Jacob Chapman

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th April 2015

Overview• Aims • Developed Model • Case Study • Results • Future Work • Internship • Conclusion



Jacob Chapman

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th April 2015

Aims• Improve simulated building performance in response to

agents’ stochastic decisions

Objectives• Present a framework for the integration of stochastic models • Be able to assign archetypes to an agent template • Ability to consider social interactions • Integrate framework within a building simulation environment



Jacob Chapman

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th April 2015

Methodology• Multi Agent Simulation • Influenced through stochastic models

• MAS was developed in the social science’s to test theory’s • Economics • Emergency scenarios • Transport planning

• Now new models influenced by real world data



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th April 2015

Framework• No-MASS • Nottingham Multi Agent

Stochastic Simulation • Agents are software objects and

therefor have no mass!!



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th April 2015

Diversity Between Agents• Current archetypes:

• Retired • Adults with

children • Adults without

children • Generic



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Activities• Location



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th April 2015

Presence



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th April 2015

Building Environment• EnergyPlus • FMI Standard



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th April 2015

States• Retrieve pre-

processed states • Set parameters • Calculate

metabolic gains



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th April 2015

Group Interactions

• Shading • Windows • Lights



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th April 2015

MAS Platfom• Interactive /

reactive occupants

• Empirically informed

• Diverse population



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th April 2015

Agent State Machine• Allows for the definition of Agents • Easy to change order of models • Allows for agent communication • Transitions between states on:

• Time • Probabilities • Event

• Allows for history within states • Sub states



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th April 2015

Occupant States - Office



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th April 2015

Occupant States - House



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Occupant States - House Sub States



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Integration Of Pragmatic Rules



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FMI - Functional Mockup Interface• Generic programming interface • Allows for a Co-Simulation environment • XML defines the schema of coupling • C++ arrays to pass data • Timestep intervals • Readily Available in EnergyPlus and other simulation tools • Portable



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th April 2015

FMI - Parameter Description



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th April 2015

FMI - Functional Mockup Interface

• Humidity • Indoor Temperature • External Temperature • Indoor illuminance • External illuminance • Rain

Multi-Agent Simulation

Platform

EnergyPlus



Jacob Chapman

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th April 2015

FMI - Functional Mockup Interface

• Location • Window status • Shade status • Metabolic gains • Light status

Multi-Agent Simulation

Platform

EnergyPlus



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th April 2015

Case Study• House and office • Based in Nottingham, UK and Geneva, Switzerland • Two agents, profile of adults no children



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th April 2015

Mean Convergence• Convergence at 80

simulations



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Results

Distribution QQ Plots

Geneva

Nottingham



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th April 2015

e f g h

4060

8010

012

0

Hea

ting

Dem

and(

kWh/

m2.

y)

a b c d

4060

8010

012

0

Hea

ting

Dem

and(

kWh/

m2.

y)

Office House



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th April 2015

Results - Geneva

Agent Deterministic



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Results - Nottingham

Agent Deterministic



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Results - Geneva States

Windows Lights Shading



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Results - Nottingham States

Windows Lights Shading



Jacob Chapman

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th April 2015

Future Work • Add New Models • Social Interaction • Diversity and Household Demographics • Validation



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th April 2015

Future Work: • Add

New models



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th April 2015

Future Work: Social Interaction



Jacob Chapman

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th April 2015

DesignBuilder• Internship • To integrate the MAS platform into design builder • Allow practitioners to use the new representation of

occupants to make informed decisions about how occupants actually use buildings



Jacob Chapman

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th April 2015

How does this look in DB



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th April 2015



Jacob Chapman

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th April 2015

Conclusion• There is a performance gap • Reduced through new No-MASS



Jacob Chapman

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th April 2015

Thank You

20150415 jacob chapman

Education

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